Florida Marlins Preview

The Marlins, perhaps the most manic-depressive team in baseball, followed their 2003 World Series by simultaneously proclaiming their undying devotion to competitiveness and partially dismantling their team. Weirdly, it worked – a credit to the foresight and flexibility of General Manager Larry Bienfest. Bienfest wasn’t accumulating tremendous praise in the months following the 2003 Series. Fans could have been excused for having flashbacks of the 1997 fire sale after stars like Ivan Rodriguez and Derrek Lee left. Even so, the Marlins managed a winning season in 2004, only the third in their history, and Bienfest has spent the past 12 months accumulating parts for the team’s next playoff push.

Although a few of Bienfest’s past moves continue to appear foolish – most notably the departure of Kevin Millar to Boston via the Japanese Embassy – the Marlins today have a very good lineup and an intimidating starting rotation. Most of the Marlins’ problems lie outside the playing field, but even the inter-related issues of poor attendance, an unsuitable stadium, the ghost of “Mr. Burns” Huizenga, and the gator infested swamps of politics are beginning to resolve in the Marlins’ favor. With officials from the city of Miami and Miami-Dade county now lobbying the Florida legislature for support, combined with the favor Huizenga did of refusing to renew the Marlins’ Scroogish stadium lease, Miami will almost certainly gain a new downtown venue. The Marlins have never had better days, and it appears that the light is growing brighter. Infield

(Statistics following the position are the 2004 NL positional averages. Those following the player are the player’s averages over the past three years, or, if the player has played less than three years, the career averages.)

First Base (2004 NL avg. .280/.364/.485) – Carlos Delgado (3-year avg. .284/.403/.561)

Delgado had his worst season since 1997, in part due to a nasty strained ribcage muscle that kept him out of the line up for the month of June, but Delgado still managed to hit 32 home runs. In the four weeks prior to his injury, Delgado batted an uncharacteristic .194/.313/.334 in 93 ABs, raising questions as to whether he was struggling with his health before he acknowledged his muscle strain. When he returned from injury, Delgado was back to his superstar ways. He managed a 1.033 OPS in the second half of the season, suggesting that age-related decline is shallower than his end-of-year statistics would suggest. On the other hand, the Marlins play in a yawning football stadium that depresses hitting statistics enough that Delgado will probably not see the 1.000 OPS mark for the rest of his career. His career average OPS of .949 is probably a good guess for 2005. ZIPS has him at .261/.389/.502. A certain underestimate considering his 2004 injury.

Although some have questioned the Marlins’ wisdom for signing the aging Delgado to a rich, long-term contract, the transition from Derrek Lee to Delgado is a snapshot in effective general management, at least from a short-term perspective. The trade of Lee to the Cubs prior to the 2004 season brought Hee Seop Choi, a young, patient slugger who performed ably, though not spectacularly, for the Marlins until the trading deadline.

Unexpectedly, Choi became a key component in a mid-season deal that brought catcher Paul LoDuca and ace closer Guillermo Mota from the Dodgers. The unanticipated trade answered a number of Florida’s short-term and long-term needs, but opened a Delgado-sized hole. This year’s Delgado signing was a side-effect of Bienfest’s earlier flexibility and competence – a big reason why the Marlins will probably win a lot of games in 2005. Although the contract has the risk of becoming a millstone, Delgado never got a no-trade clause. As Mike Hampton shows, big contracts are not necessarily permanent obstacles to a trade, even when players underperform.

Second Base (.279/.337/.421) – Luis Castillo (.304/.373/.369)

Luis Castillo’s 2003 performance caused many to consider him one of the elite top-of-the-order hitters in baseball. Indeed, Castillo has developed into something of an on-base talent who walks more than he strikes out. Unfortunately, 2003 was the only season in his nine year career in which he slugged better than his OPB. He reverted to form in 2004 and posted an Isolated Power of .057, which matched David Eckstein for the lowest in the majors and made people like Tony Womack look like power hitters.

When Paul LoDuca arrived, Castillo went from a top-of-the-order hitter to a bottom-of-the-order hitter. Defensively, Castillo is considered a Gold Glove caliber second baseman and a double-play wizard – ESPN.com reported that he and SS Alex Gonzalez teamed up for a Major League best 63 twin kills. On balls off the bat, however, Castillo is somewhat average. According to David Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range, which admittedly does not account for DPs, Castillo’s range saved about four runs more than the average second baseman, 16th in the majors.

Third Base (.277/.338/.458) – Mike Lowell (.282/.354/.500)

Mike Lowell is a nice major league third baseman with one very big problem. Every year in the middle of July he stops being angry and shrinks back into Bill Baxter. Over the past three seasons, an All Star, and he’s been invited to the game each of the past three seasons. The post-All Star Lowell is a different beast. Over the past three years, his second half OPS has been .706, .736, and .764. Given that the average NL second baseman had an OPS of .768 last year, the Marlins trot out the equivalent of a middle infielder at 3B half the season.

Shortstop (.267/.314/.393) – Alex Gonzalez (.241/.292/.418)

Alex Gonzalez is a throwback to the shortstops of yore who honed their defensive instincts by wrestling lynxes and who wore gloves lined with spider glue. Invariably, these legends of the infield couldn’t find a hit if you spotted them Simon Crowell. David Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range says Gonzalez saved more than 13 runs in the field last year for the Fish, plus he turned double plays at prodigious rate. He is a defensive asset for his team, but is this enough to compensate for his league-low OBP? Probably not, but it moderates it some, especially given Gonzalez’s power stroke. Among shortstops who qualified for the batting title (thus eliminating both Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez), Gonzalez’s Isolated Power was third in the major leagues – better than Derek Jeter’s and just a shade behind Miguel Tejada’s. Gonzalez is who he is: A slick fielder whose newly found pop makes up slightly for his poor batting skills. As for his other deficits, as a Yankees fan would say, “Look at the rings, baybee!” What else is there, really? The rings clearly render his offense superior to Dan Marino’s and Dwayne Wade’s combined. As noted below, John Kruk would likely agree.

Catcher (.258/.321/.392) – Paul LoDuca (.280/.334/.399)

In 2001, Paul LoDuca broke into the Dodgers’ starting lineup with a flukishly good year that has made his pedestrian performance since then seem like a disappointment. Given his position, however, LoDuca is quite adequate. He makes contact, takes the occasional walk, and can spray the ball to the gaps for a fair number of doubles. Of course LoDuca is only a shadow of Ivan Rodriguez, whom he belatedly replaced, but his salary is less than half of Pudge’s. With Delgado now on the way, the salary/performance trade-off at catcher could turn into a fair exchange.

Bench

Manager Jack McKeon almost always uses his starters, but whether this be due to preference or necessity is as yet unclear. The Marlins’ bench has been shallow for years and 2005 is no exception. Conine (or Encarnacion, if Conine beats him out) is as dangerous a pinch hitter as the Marlins have had for a while. Lenny Harris will be trying for the magic number of 200 pinch hits. Damion Easley and Wilson Delgado could be taking up bench space. Eight-year minor league veteran Chris Aguila, perhaps the Majors’ only Samoan-American, could make the team as a backup, but his bat is suspect.

Outfield

Right Field (.269/.352/.457) – Juan Encarnacion (.260/.313/.435)

Medicine is an inexact science – so much so that some call it a statement of personal expression. If so, Juan Encarnacion’s 2004 medical care should be sent to Boston's Museum of Bad Art. With the Dodgers in mid-May, Encarnacion began complaining of soreness in his left shoulder after attempting a diving catch in the outfield. An MRI showed tendonitis, but no damage. More pain. The team attributed it to the fluid injected before the MRI. More pain. Another MRI, and a visit to Dr. Frank Jobe, one of baseball’s injury gurus. No damage found. Even so, Encarnacion’s pain worsened. Finally the Marlins got him. A third MRI in August finally found the problem – a damaged labrum and two bone spurs. Now coming off surgery, Encarnacion is primed for something of a comeback season, probably in the range of the .270/.313/.446 he hit in 2003 before signing with the Dodgers – a performance very much in line with his career averages.

Only 29, Encarnacion is entering his eighth season and is a defensive plus on a weak defensive outfield, so he’ll probably see much of the playing time. Jeff Conine is also in the mix, though Conine could also spend a lot of time waiting to pitch hit and backing up Delgado. If he beats out Encarnacion, Miguel Cabrera will play right, where his immobility is more of a handicap, and Conine will play left. At 38, Conine has lost a bit in the outfield, but he can still match Encarnacion’s offensive numbers. He was also the majors’ best defensive first baseman last year according to the Probabilistic Model of Range, so Marlins fans will likely see him a lot at first in the later innings. The Marlins would love to dump Encarnacion’s salary, and if they do Conine could find more playing time in the outfield. That, of course, assumes that Conine is recovered from his off-season Paddleball injury. Wiffleball-loving Devil Ray Rocco Baldelli could give an empathetic ear.

Center Field (.265/.332/.437) – Juan Pierre (.307/.357/.376)

Don Malcolm will use nothing but a sharpened keyboard and an explosive-rigged mouse to defend Juan Pierre from the attacks of the slide-rule crowd. After exhaustive Googling, however, it appears that Don’s fire is a little overstated. Indeed, Pierre is poster child for anti-Moneyballers and other pre-technological tribesmen, but the neo-sabe cabal primarily uses Pierre a stand-in for Belgium in their war against lame-brained media commentators.

To wit, a post from a Primate named bunyon from April 28 of last year: “I'm done with [ESPN’s Baseball Tonight]. I flipped over to it last night and the first thing I heard was [John] Kruk saying that Juan Pierre is more valuable than Barry Bonds. I assumed it was a joke until I saw the look on [Peter] Gammons' face and [Howard Reynolds] doubled over in laughter. [Gammons] tried to argue but Kruk started yelling, ‘Look at the rings! Look at the rings!’” These types of comments from baseball insiders inspire Baseball Think Factory’s band of statistical connoisseurs to pile on with merciless glee. is only collateral damage.

ll this, of course, is an evolution from two years ago when Pierre was widely considered to be a dud waiting to happen following his trade from the Rockies. Instead of bottoming out with Miami, Pierre surpassed his established level of success – an odd, but not unprecedented, occurrence for a hitter leaving Coors Field. Indeed, it has been suggested that players with uncommonly little power derive no benefit from Coors, so they suffer little drop in their performance when they move on. Such seems to be the case with Pierre – the speedster’s .326/.374/.407 2004 season differed little from the .327/.378/.415 he posted with Colorado in 2001, though he did nearly double his career home run output with 3. Now, entering his age 27 year, Pierre’s skill set is at its peak and he should continue as one of baseball’s best lead-off men.

Left Field (.277/.366/.484) – Miguel Cabrera (.285/.352/.497)

For those unfamiliar with similarity scores, they are one of Bill James’s many nifty inventions that have helped replace whittling as the modern exercise for the idle. As described on basebal l-reference.com, similarity scores simply compare the raw statistics of two players and make a positional adjustment. Of course, similarity scores have their limitations. Among other things, they’re not era- or park-adjusted, meaning that among Neifi Perez’s ten most similar players are Freddy Parent, a Dead Ball Era infielder with a league average career OPS+, and Hall of Famer Pee Wee Reese.

Nevertheless, for roughly comparing two players’ raw numbers, similarity scores do the job. So, how do today’s local heroes do compared with earlier stars in Similarity Score terms? Take Albert Pujols, for example. At age 21, Pujols’s best comparison was Joe Dimaggio. Ditto for his age 22, age 23, and age 24 seasons. For his career to date, Pujols’s 10 best comparisons include seven Hall of Famers, plus Vladimir Guerrero. Pujols plays baseball fairly well. Miguel Cabrera broke into the big leagues as a 19-year-old wunderkind who slugged .633 against the Cubs in the NLCS, then played his first full season as a 20 year old last year. How did he compare to previous 20-year-old players? How do you like Hank Aaron? In many ways, the statistical comparison between the Cabrera and Aaron is eerie. In his 1+ seasons, Cabrera has hit .285/.352/.497, with 45 home runs and 174 RBI. At the same age, Aaron had hit .299/.347/.499 with 40 homers and 175 RBI. The two diverge in strikeouts – Aaron’s 100 Ks were less than half of Cabrera’s 232 – and Aaron had more doubles and triples than Cabrera has had. For his part, Cabrera has done his work in 28 fewer games. This leads to one of the other significant shortcomings of Similarity Scores – they may do a good job of comparing the past, but they surely don’t predict the future. Aaron’s Hall of Fame-worthy consistency included 20 straight seasons of 20 or more home runs. His performance simply failed to decline before his 40th birthday.

Regardless of Cabrera’s outstanding play, it’s unlikely his peak will turn into an Aaron-like, two-decade-long plateau. But even if he performs at his All-Star level for only the next decade, Marlins fans won’t complain. Whatever the case, it will certainly be fun to watch Cabrera try to keep up with the Hall of Famers who are, at this early date, his closest historical competitors.

Starting Pitching

Josh Beckett (3-year ERA 3.61, 406.1 IP)
A.J. Burnett (3.52, 347.1)
Al Leiter (3.56, 558.2)
Dontrelle Willis (3.40, 357.2)
Ismael Valdez (5.00, 481 IP)

Although the Marlins are considered a contender, the Braves are the consensus choice for the AL East championship, partly because the talented Marlins starting rotation continues to have troubling questions. Josh Beckett – as obnoxious a human being as has ever played the game (era-adjusted) – is also one of the most precociously talented pitchers in baseball. His 3-0 record and 2.11 ERA in the 2003 playoffs established the 23-year-old as a legitimate star and raised expectations for last season that were cruelly dashed by the inevitable balancing of karma. A recurring blister problem sidelined Beckett twice last season, and he hit the DL again in June due to a strained back. Even with the injuries, however, Beckett pitched a career-high 156.2 innings, a testament to Beckett’s early-career fragility more than anything. Beckett has yet to break out for the dominant season expected of him. If he does mature into an ace, the Braves’ championships run could be over.

A.J. Burnett’s past injury troubles were chillingly foreseeable. When Jeff Torborg took over the Marlins’ helm after the Marlins’ sale to Jeffrey Loria, baseball bloggers and others warned of Torborg’s history of abusing young pitchers. The concern turned into alarm as Burnett became the icon of pitcher abuse. In 2002, Burnett threw more than 120 pitches in a game 10 times and finally was shut down with injury after a run of three complete games in four starts. Although he tried to come back in 2003, he eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Now, nearly two years removed from the surgery, Burnett has the talent to become an elite starting pitcher. Although his record was 7-6, opponents only managed a .638 OPS against Burnett last year and he struck out more than 8 batters per 9 IP. Given a full season, Burnett be a solid component in the Marlins’ starting rotation. Even though he pitched several years in . His record in the city is 22-9 with a 2.77 ERA.

Even though he pitched several years in New York City, Al Leiter never seemed to receive the star billing that lesser talents often get there. In his seven years as a Met, Leiter was among the league’s 10 best in ERA four times, won 15 or more games three times, and led the Mets to the 2000 World Series. His durability and consistency have never been questioned. Last season, at age 38, Leiter posted a 133 ERA+ and allowed one run or fewer in half his starts. All this, plus he’s a nice guy – he won the Branch Rickey Award in 1999 and the Roberto Clemente Award in 2000, both given to exemplars of community service. So, what’s not to love about Al Leiter, and why is he considered a spare part in the Marlins rotation? For one thing, Leiter’s performance is considered something of a Shea Stadium creation, secondly, his age makes analysts discount his future performance. Given the support the Marlins offence could provide and the spaciousness of the Marlins’ home park, Leiter could force analysts to take another look – especially if he builds on his career performance in Miami. His record in the city is 22-9 with a 2.77 ERA.

The Dontrelle Willis sensation has tempered somewhat, but Willis continued his development with a solid 198 innings last season. Willis doesn’t quite have the pitches to dominate right handers as he does lefties, though he holds his own. His overall performance last year placed him right in the middle of the NL pack, but he still has significant development time ahead. Now entering his age 23 season, Willis could gain refinement and develop into a consistently superior pitcher. Peripherals, including his good strikeout and k/bb rates, suggests he will.

The Marlins’ young pitchers should pay attention to the career of Ismael Valdez, perhaps the oldest 31-year-old pitcher in the major leagues. After an outstanding start to his career, Valdez has turned into a below-league average journeyman. As recently as 2002, however, Valdez was able to reach a sub 4.00 ERA in 23 starts with the Rangers, so Valdez might be able to help. If not, the Marlins have little depth to replace him, though a similar pitcher could probably be had for as little as he was last season, when he was brought over from the Padres in exchange for A-baller Travis Chick.

Bullpen

The Marlins bullpen was marked last year by the dominance of ace reliever Armando Benitez and the poor performance of the rest of the staff. Of the top 10 relievers in innings pitched with the team last season, only Benitez had an ERA below 4.40. Among right-handers with more than 30 IP with the team, only Benitez and Guillermo Mota had ERAs below 5.00.

To address this, the Marlins overhauled their bullpen in the off-season, bringing in Antonio Alfonsesca, Todd Jones, John Riedling and Jim Mecir. These four plus Tim Spooneybarger, who is a season removed from Tommy John surgery, and lefty Matt Perisho will likely back up the new closer Mota. In 2003, both Jones and Alfonsesca recovered from poor performances, but in Jones’s case it’s probably a dead-cat bounce.

Riedling, a former Red, has been on a significant decline for the past two years after three years of sub-3.00 ERAs. Riedling is only 29, however, and the poor performances were associated with a dramatically heavier workload in 2003 and 2004. Mecir has chronically painful knees that had him on the verge of retirement last off-season, but he ultimately came with his lefty-killing screwball, which makes it possible that the Marlins will only carry one lefty in the pen. That lefty will likely be Perisho, who had the Marlins’ second best bullpen ERA last season.

As far as Mota goes, his ERAs over his past two years in LA were 1.97 and 2.14. After being traded to Florida, he did well for a month, then had a couple of unlucky outings and a couple of poor outings that raised questions. If Mota proves unreliable in relief, Alfonsesca will reprise his earlier days as Florida’s closer. Mota has the stuff to be the Marlins relief ace and it’s a good bet that he’ll succeed; the others are question marks.

Conclusion

The Marlins are well-positioned to make a run for the NL East title, but their lack of depth on both the pitching and hitting sides could spell disaster if one of their big names goes down for an extended time. The Marlins have few prospects in the upper minors, but their system at the lower minors has some interesting names so they might be able to swing another mid-season trade if the situation requires. Regardless of the circumstance, Bienfest has shown the creativity and flexibility to make changes to the team that strengthen it. Barring catastrophe, fans in Miami should buckle up for a nice ride this year.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Beckett      3.42  10   7  25  24   142.0  121   54   51  149  12 
Burnett      3.46   9   7  24  23   151.0  126   58   62  151   9 
Mota         3.47   7   5  73   0    96.0   84   37   36   88   6 
Willis*      3.77  12  10  32  32   198.0  188   83   64  156  17 
Spooneybar   3.83   1   1  53   0    54.0   48   23   24   47   3 
Mecir        3.91   3   3  58   0    53.0   48   23   22   50   4 
Alfonseca    4.00   4   4  69   0    72.0   71   32   30   51   4 
Bump         4.00   5   5  39  13   108.0  111   48   36   64   8 
Jones        4.13   4   4  69   0    72.0   71   33   31   48   4 
Neu          4.33   2   2  44   0    52.0   47   25   29   45   4 
Perisho*     4.38   5   6  66   4    76.0   75   37   30   58   8 
Castillo     4.38   8   9  29  23   156.0  162   76   46  110  22 
Crowell*     4.50   4   5  46   0    56.0   57   28   21   39   7 
Riedling     4.66   3   4  59   3    85.0   85   44   40   55   7 
Corey        4.70   3   4  49   0    69.0   74   36   25   38   8 
Smith        4.79   7  10  33  23   139.0  154   74   40   72  20 
Fuell        4.86   2   2  44   0    50.0   54   27   17   27   7 
Wayne        4.87   5   8  29  24   135.0  141   73   55   84  17 
Kensing      4.92   5   9  24  22   119.0  124   65   54   73  14 
Leiter*      4.98   9  13  31  31   179.0  181   99   96  134  19 
Valdez       5.00   8  12  30  29   162.0  184   90   44   78  26 
Bentz*       5.23   1   2  41   0    62.0   63   36   41   40   5 
Rosario      5.40   5   8  21  19   105.0  106   63   67   73  10 
Messenger    5.50   3   6  42  13    90.0   90   55   61   66  10 
Cameron      5.52   5   6  36  14   106.0  109   65   63   86  15 
Blank*       5.57   4   9  29  22   126.0  142   78   50   73  23 
Walrond*     5.61   6  12  31  20   138.0  148   86   74  108  21 
Flannery     5.66   4   8  55   0    62.0   65   39   38   45   9 
Miadich      5.77   2   6  52   0    64.0   54   41   59   74   8 
Howard       6.28   3   7  34  17   116.0  130   81   63   75  24 
Cave         6.34   2   4  39   0    44.0   46   31   34   27   6 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Cabrera      lf  .308  .382  .527 161 607 187 31  3 32 104 119  70 138  7  3 
Delgado*     1b  .261  .389  .502 142 506 132 27  1 31  84 104  94 129  0  0 
Lowell       3b  .283  .358  .498 153 580 164 42  1 27  82  98  66  80  4  2 
Pierre*      cf  .308  .362  .379 162 675 208 24  9  2  95  53  52  37 49 23 
Castillo#    2b  .306  .379  .368 151 592 181 16  6  3  91  50  71  67 25 12 
Encarnacion  rf  .259  .315  .427 147 555 144 31  4 18  71  78  42  90 12  7 
Lo Duca      c   .274  .330  .387 145 555 152 32  2  9  64  66  39  46  2  4 
Dillon       3b  .266  .338  .470 120 432 115 28  3 18  72  66  45 102  9  7 
Gonzalez     ss  .243  .290  .428 151 538 131 31  4 20  59  77  30 113  2  2 
Wilson       ss  .255  .317  .377 135 509 130 26  3 10  72  54  43  98 10  8 
Willingham   c   .243  .367  .444 114 338  82 18  1 16  66  53  65  92  7  4 
Conine       1b  .249  .305  .378 135 502 125 28  2 11  52  66  39  74  4  3 
Aguila       lf  .271  .333  .416 115 377 102 21  2 10  57  47  34  94  7  5 
Padgett*     lf  .231  .294  .402 126 433 100 24  1 16  52  60  36 121  3  2 
Stokes       1b  .235  .291  .414 114 413  97 21  1 17  66  62  30 137  5  3 
Barnes*      1b  .254  .299  .422 113 386  98 21  4 12  45  52  22  83  3  1 
Delgado#     2b  .258  .314  .345 130 411 106 18  3  4  39  34  32  84  4  2 
Colangelo    lf  .256  .340  .404  94 285  73 19  1  7  73  38  34  67  2  1 
Wathan#      ss  .253  .300  .349 107 384  97 19  3  4  49  34  23  67 14  9 
Hermida*     rf  .239  .306  .313 112 377  90 11  1  5  53  33  34  88 13  3 
Wood         3b  .224  .279  .338 111 393  88 19  1  8  44  41  27  88  2  1 
Ryan*        lf  .220  .301  .361 104 332  73 19  2  8  42  34  37  57  2  3 
Reed*        cf  .258  .311  .313 103 384  99 10  4  1  60  22  27  75 27 17 
Little       lf  .252  .299  .406 109 286  72 15  4  7  38  31  13  68  6  4 
Niles#       ss  .226  .296  .292 112 319  72 11  2  2  40  24  30  79  2  2 
Treanor      c   .223  .305  .333  88 264  59 11  0  6  31  28  29  52  3  2 
Easley       2b  .214  .301  .376  85 234  50 15  1  7  23  31  22  35  2  2 
Jorgensen    c   .210  .270  .315  75 257  54 12  0  5  24  26  20  63  2  0 
DiFelice     c   .231  .280  .353  74 221  51 13  1  4  21  25  14  38  1  1 
El Cero Gord 3b  .208  .257  .262  91 130  27  4  0  1  10  11   8  15  1  0