Philadelphia Phillies

I have to admit it. I'm on board. I'm on the bandwagon. I'm a believer. I'm now a Phan. I've been to a good number of Phillies games in the four years that I've lived here but this is the first time that I took the season ticket plunge. I first signed up for seventeen games including the first night game at CitPa (Citizens Bank Park) and the July 5th Fireworks Spectacular. As an aside, the Phillies fireworks games (the 3rd and 5th) are the best fireworks displays that I have ever seen. Anyways, deciding that seventeen games wasn't enough for a surefire pennant contender, I then added three more games. First, I picked the Chicago Cubs and Kerry Wood (or is it the Cubs and Prior, or maybe the Cubs and Sosa), then Andy Pettitte and the Houston Astros and then the World Champion Marlins in October. My not-so-secret hope is that this might be the night the Phillies clinch the division.

So is my newfound optimism warranted? A whole lot of folks seem to think so. There was some feeling last year, that the Phillies could challenge the Braves, but that was prior to the Braves offensive juggernaut pulling it all together somewhat unexpectedly. Yours truly thought that the Phillies were a "90-win team" and perhaps better if Marlon Byrd and Jimmy Rollins improved. More on Rollins and Byrd later, but they weren't the problem and this team only won 86 games. Though in self-interest, I will note that their pythagorean won-loss record was 90-72.

The most obvious culprits in last year's disappointing season were a miserable season by Pat Burrell (.209/.309/.404) and the closers Bad and Badder. However, one topic that did not receive much airplay was the starting pitching, which was lackluster. Only Vincente Padilla bested a 4.00 ERA, and his 3.62 was barely within shouting distance of the National League top ten.

Anyway, enough about last year, new ballpark, new closer, new season. Now last year, I gave the Phillies preview short shrift in order to take a whack at a "GM in a box." Several surly Phillies phans were disappointed with the lack of discussion of the new team, so never fear, I'll do due diligence this year on the Phillies' roster.

Lineup

If Dan's Zips are to be believed (assuming he didn't change them on me as part of some sick joke), the Phillies should have a very good on-base offense. Only Jimmy Rollins' on-base percentage falls below a .350 OBP, assuming my David Bell voodoo doll continues working as well as it has the past seven months.

Catcher: Mike Lieberthal and Todd Pratt

Lieberthal isn't among the premier catchers in the league, but he firmly within the second tier with players like the non-possessed Javy Lopez and Jason Kendall. His backup Todd Pratt (my scoresheet co-owner's favorite backup catcher), is a very useful right-handed club off the bench. While most teams hope for something better than a pitcher's contribution from their backup catchers, Pratt has produced a .400+ OBP and a .450+ SLG each of the last two years in very limited playing time. It kind of makes you wonder if Bowa shouldn't work hard to have a decent emergency third catcher and then use Pratt in more pinch hit situations. He has only had eight pinch-hit at bats the last two years.

First Base: Jim Thome

Simply "Awesome." According to a friend at a local rag, this is Thome's response to most everything. And the Philly fans feel the same about Thome. Thome fell one home run short of Mike Schmidt's single-season record of 48. And while his 131 RBI's was well short of Chuck Klein's 1938 total of 170 RBI's, it was the most for a Phillie since 1932. Thome was exceptionally good when the chips were down, hitting ten home runs in both August and September. When Thome's bat slows over the next few years, 200 K's seems like a real possibility, but until that time, the Phillies will have one of MLB's top sluggers manning first base.

Second Base: Placido Polanco or Chase Utley

The plan is for Utley to return to AAA where he has hit for something in the neighborhood of an .850 OPS in 238 games. I know the kids always need more seasoning, but Utley is as ready as he is ever going to get, though a blistering spring holds out hope that Bowa and Wade will come to their senses. While Utley is leading Scranton to a first-division finish, Polanco will be playing second and David Bell will play third. Tomas Perez, then handles the primary infield backup job.

There were a lot of Red Sox statheads hoping that Theo Epstein would get Polanco or perhaps Adam Kennedy to play second base. Polanco is 28 and is now in his fourth year as a starter. Most of the defensive metrics agree that he is a very good defensive player both at third and at second. He will never draw a lot of walks, but he has double digit home run pop, and he is now all the Phillies have to show for running Scott Rolen out of town.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins

This off-season he was sent to Tony's "hit-the-damn-ball-on-the-ground camp". This is supposed to turn him into a better leadoff hitter, but he really needs to attend Rickey's "draw-a-few-more-walks" camp, as he has always been below the one walk to ten at bat ratio (that works as a quick rule of thumb between poor and acceptable). In fact his power/speed game brings to mind a Rickey-lite rather than a player hitting it through the five and a half hole a la Gwynn. I had high hopes for Rollins as a rookie. He had exceptional pop for a young middle infield prospect to go along with his great speed. I still think that he could put together a Dick McAuliffe-type season (McAuliffe finished seventh in the 1968 AL MVP voting), but I fear that Bowa and his small ball urgings have gotten too far into his head for that to happen now.

Third Base: David Bell

There was talk that signing Bell was important part of Thome coming to Philly. I guess it is an ill wind that doesn't blow some good. Bell is very good defensively, but he is now suffering from shoulder tendinitis, after being waylaid by back trouble last year, so that skill set is likely on the decline. When he went out with back trouble, Polanco was shifted to third and Utley filled in at second. Utley's line of .239/.322/.373 was nothing great. A .322 OBP would qualify as the third best of David Bell's career. With three more years on the contract, the pain has only just begun.

Left Field: Pat Burrell

He was a boobird favorite last year, though Burrell's Girls stuck by their heartthrob through thick and thin. Looking over his stats, he was terrible against lefties, terrible against righties, terrible at home, terrible on the road, terrible on grass, terrible on turf, terrible in April, May, June, July, and only sort of terrible in August and September. He still could explode. He reminds me a bit of Albert Belle. Belle had a strong college career, some good seasons and then he hit it big as a 26-year-old. Burrell is a year behind that schedule, but I like his chances. Just as a reality check, Burrell is slugging .333 in spring training late last week.

Center Field: Marlon Byrd

Well, Marlon Byrd was quietly solid with a .366 OBP and a .418 SLG. Perhaps all the never-ending admonitions to Jimmy Rollins (just .320/.387) to "hit the ball of the ground" rubbed off on Marlon Byrd, who has a two-to-one groundball-to-flyball ratio. He hit for a good deal more power in the minor leagues, so I think there is some upside here. He was an older rookie, so it isn't a lot of upside. For instance, the most similar players to him are guys like Ken Griffey, Sr. and Billy Sample. A Ken Griffey, Sr. career is a worthy goal.

Right Field: Bobby Abreu

Good organizations focus on what players can do and not what they can't. About all Abreu can't do is hit 30+ home runs and earn a Gold Glove. He steals bases well and has drawn 100 walks for five consecutive years (a feat matched by teammate Jim Thome) after an 84 walk season his first full season. Much has been made of Abreu disliking batting higher than third in the lineup. However, unless the power returns unexpectedly (not impossible for someone 33), he should be batting second. Byrd, Abreu, Thome were on base 679 times last year. A productive Pat Burrell could drive in 135 runs this year.

Starting Pitching: Randy Wolf, Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Brett Myers, Eric Milton

Last year, Wolf, Millwood, Padilla, and Myers all had their moments, but none of them put together a top notch season.

After two great seasons, Wolf regressed to a pedestrian 4.23 ERA in 2003. He is certainly a staff workhorse as he has started 64 games the last two years and topped 200 innings each year.

Eric Milton adds another lefty to the rotation. Like Billy Wagner, he is a big money addition, but is not likely to be termed a good buy. He is absolutely Blyleven-esque is his home run rate and is among the most extreme fly ball pitchers in the majors. I'm not sure that having Burrell and Abreu in the outfield corners will do him any favors and if the new park plays small, he could be in for a long year.

Millwood is looking more and more like a league average pitcher who can occasionally dominate. In his last six years, his ERA+ has been 104, 162, 100, 102, 127, and last year 103. At $11 million, you would like a little bit more from your ace starter.

Vincente Padilla and Brett Myers were long-term Joe Kerrigan projects. Myers tends to speed up his delivery and Kerrigan was continually trying to get him to slow down. The advice never really took. Myers models his persona after Curt Schilling. The buzz your teammate in spring training part of the persona and not necessarily the extreme attention to detail portion. Kerrigan was hired with some fanfare after working the Comcast postgame show for a year. Through the all star break, Kerrigan was largely credited with improving the Phillies ERA, but the improvement was short lived as the Phillies only dropped their ERA from 4.17 in 2002 to 4.04 in 2003.

As for Padilla, the Phillies were on him repeatedly for his pre-game preparation. Their feeling was that he wasn't properly warming up prior to games. The stats definitely bear this out. In pitches 1-30, Padilla's OPS allowed was over .800 and it dropped well under .700 for the next 45 pitches. When announces call a pitcher's stuff "filthy" this is the type of pitcher they are talking about. When attending Phillies games, my wife notes Padilla's broken bats on her scorecard with little jagged lines. He isn't quite in Mariano Rivera's class, but she often reaches four or five broken bats a game.

Bullpen: Billy Wagner, Tim Worrell, Rheal Cormier, Roberto Hernandez, and assorted other guys I would be forced to make something up for.

After subjecting the Phans to Jose Mesa for three years, Ed Wade paid top dollar for 80 innings of a 2.00 to 2.50 ERA. Whether that is worth the $8million Billy Wagner is due to receive is not for us to decide in this article, though I could make a pretty strong argument that A-Rod could have been playing in Philly this summer had the front office played its cards the right way.

Part of the appeal the last few years of having Mesa in the bullpen was the affect it had on Larry Bowa. Dallas Green and other front office folks had advised Bowa to move up the dugout runway due to his "demonstrativeness" when he felt the need to emote. This meant that during Mesa's appearances Bowa was often no where to be seen.

Wagner will without a doubt be an improvement, but he's not infallible and the local media and fans have presented his arrival as the reason to print playoff tickets. He was slowed this spring training with an injured middle finger, but has returned and should be sharp by the start of the season.

Tim Worrell is yet another example that moving from generic quality reliever to closer is not that hard as long as you can get guys out. He saved 38 games last year and looked a whole lot like the same reliever who set up Robb Nen the year before.

There is no way that Cormier matches his 2003. No way. His periperals were slightly better in 2003 with improved SO and BB rates. However, the difference is not so dramatic as to justify a 1.70 ERA vs. a 5.25 era.

Roberto Hernandez? Could give you 60 innings of league average pitching or will be released at the all-star break.

There is a significant chance that the Phillies will uncover a tough bullpen arm from their minor league system. Someone like Geoff Geary, Ryan Madson, Dave Coggin, or Josh Hancock could certainly throw 50 quality innings, but it is hard to say which one it will be. Madson is the most highly thought of from this group and has appeared in several top 100 prospect lists. Madson has been used as a starter in the past, but with Eric Milton on board they are looking at him as a possible bullpen arm now. His throwing has impressed Bowa, but like Utley they made send him down to work as a starter. WWWD? Some reclaimed prospects like Bud Smith and Amaury Telemaco are also likely to see time either in long relief or (if they can gain Bowa's trust) as setup men.

Minors: Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd

This spring Cole Hamels gave up a home run. It was his first home run allowed since his sophomore year in high school. Early in spring training, he faced the Yankees and struck out Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Tony Clark in order. And he throws lefty. If the Phillies see fit, Hamels and his changeup may be due for a Fernando, Dwight, or Dontrelle moment this summer. Like Hamels, Gavin Floyd was a number one pick as a high school pitcher. He is a level ahead of Hamels, but he doesn't look to be quite as good of a prospect. He still is a consensus top 50 prospect in most top 50 lists. He just isn't one of those crazy, filthy prospects.

Manager: Larry Bowa

I don't know if this is significant or not, but the local sports talk station was saying that Bowa is presently going through a divorce from his wife of 30 years. I can't imagine that will make things easier for him this year.

Also, while Bowa talks a lot about reducing strikeouts, hit and runs, and sacrifice bunting, he really isn't that much of a small ball manager. He puts up with huge numbers of strikeouts from Burrell and Thome and called for only 23 non-pitcher sacrifices last year.

Team   Non-pitcher SH
 COL         28 
 SFG         28 
 HOU         28 
 ARI         28 
 NYY         24 
 PHI         23 
 ATL         22 
 SDP         22 
 TEX         21 
 BOS         21 
 OAK         21 
 TOR         11 

The New Ballpark

I don't have any insight into how the new ballpark will play, but I do know that it is going to make the Phillies a lot of money at least starting out. The Vet which was demolished this past weekend, was not the coziest of major league venues. The outfield upper deck was left open and you would have about 100 people milling around the 10,000 seats sporting assorted signs like Person's People and the Wolf Pack along with the couples making out. The new park won't have any empty sections this year.

Phillies Attendance
2000  1.6 million
2001  1.8 million
2002  1.6 million
2003  2.1 million   (the year of 81 promotional events) 
2004  3.0 million?? (23,000 season tickets already sold)

How this will affect their win-loss record? It is hard to say. Without the new park it is unlikely Millwood, Thome, Milton and Wagner would be in Philadelphia. Seattle has averaged 98 wins in the four seasons since their new park opened up. The Orioles had a couple good years in Camden Yards, but only once passed 90 wins.

Regardless of how the new park plays, anything less than the playoffs will disappoint all of the team's fans and will almost certainly cost Larry Bowa his job. A local writer noted that former managers Bob Boone and Joe Kerrigan are in the organization and would potentially step in for Bowa should the Phillies falter. Playoffs or no, I'll be traveling south on Broad twenty times this year. Feel free to stop by Section 419 and say hello. Oh...Do you want a bold prediction? 96-66 and a first round playoff loss.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Thome*             1b  .271  .403  .581  155  542  100  147  29   2  45  122  116  169   0   3 
Abreu*             rf  .301  .416  .495  160  588  101  177  45   3  21   93  114  124  25  13 
Byrd               cf  .304  .367  .456  141  542   98  165  32   4  14   73   48  102  12   3 
Burrell            lf  .253  .359  .485  154  565   74  143  35   3  30   97   89  146   1   0 
Lieberthal         c   .297  .363  .446  125  475   55  141  30   1  13   67   37   56   0   0 
Utley*             2b  .287  .358  .455  146  541   86  155  36   2  17   78   51   97   7   4 
Pratt              c   .234  .384  .391   51  128   14   30  11   0   3   16   26   39   1   0 
Polanco            3b  .298  .350  .425  137  544   83  162  33   3  10   67   36   40  10   3 
Rushford*          lf  .283  .348  .402  107  403   46  114  22   1   8   49   37   42   2   2 
Collier            ss  .269  .335  .421  110  394   52  106  24   3  10   49   35   91   5   2 
Ledee*             lf  .239  .335  .428  107  243   34   58  17   1   9   34   34   56   1   1 
Michaels           cf  .266  .337  .421   99  271   39   72  16   1   8   36   27   80   3   2 
Rollins#           ss  .276  .337  .401  160  670   94  185  34   7  12   73   60  109  26  14 
Bell               3b  .243  .323  .394  126  449   59  109  27   1  13   58   47   60   1   1 
Perez#             3b  .265  .325  .381  110  260   31   69  16   1   4   29   22   46   0   1 
Smith              lf  .251  .303  .426  120  399   45  100  29   1  13   56   27   76   2   3 
Wooten             dh  .270  .328  .387   82  222   22   60   8   0   6   28   17   38   1   3 
Budzinski*         rf  .266  .342  .351  121  436   70  116  23   4   2   38   46  105  10   6 
Machado#           ss  .204  .326  .311  120  431   70   88  19   3   7   74   74  129  33  12 
Hinch              c   .233  .287  .379   82  253   25   59  14   1   7   30   17   53   1   2 
Padilla            rf  .247  .310  .343   93  373   50   92  22   1   4   36   31   58  15  10 
Glanville          cf  .245  .279  .342  124  436   45  107  14   2   8   44   18   59  14   4 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Wagner*              2.92   4   2  72   0    74.0   54   24   7   22   94 
Millwood             3.57  15   9  33  32   199.0  177   79  16   61  169 
Alvarez*             3.64   6   7  31  18   126.0  115   51  10   40   89 
Geary                3.65   7   5  42   9   106.0   99   43  11   25   81 
Giese                3.66   6   4  52   0    86.0   78   35  12   20   79 
Padilla              3.71  14   9  33  29   187.0  177   77  16   49  132 
Worrell              3.72   5   3  76   0    75.0   64   31   4   32   67 
Cormier*             3.76   6   4  61   0    67.0   59   28   4   26   54 
Hancock              3.79   9   5  27  25   145.0  133   61  13   46  118 
Wedel                3.81   4   2  38   0    52.0   50   22   3   17   29 
Wolf*                3.81  14   9  31  31   189.0  165   80  20   63  180 
Telemaco             3.86  10   6  31  28   168.0  167   72  21   31  116 
Smith*               4.04   8   6  25  24   136.0  128   61  12   48   98 
Madson               4.05  11   6  27  26   160.0  145   72  14   52  111 
Milton*              4.05  12   9  30  30   182.0  175   82  24   47  143 
Myers                4.16  12  10  30  30   184.0  177   85  20   58  134 
Coggin               4.16   8   7  33  23   147.0  141   68  10   62   93 
Powell               4.37   8   8  28  23   142.0  144   69  16   45   79 
Junge                4.74   8   8  28  25   152.0  151   80  18   64  102 
Hernandez            4.95   4   5  62   0    60.0   56   33   7   33   50