Philadelphia Phillies

Pretty much everyone who has done a pre-season preview this off-season on the Phillies is going to dwell on the additions of Thome, Bell and Millwood. Two of the three should be large improvements over the players they replace, and I would guess the Phillies are a 90-win team because of it. If rookie Marlon Byrd and third-year shortstop Jimmy Rollins improve, this team should be right there at the top of the NL East come September.

However, I'm not going to break out the positions one-by-one or write a sonnet extolling the virtues of high socks. This is the start of Ed Wade's sixth season, so I'm going to propose a GM evaluation framework. I've always liked the Manager in a Box created by Bill James. It provides a nice framework in which to evaluate a manager. I also like second guessing and evaluating General Managers which is a very hard thing to do given all the variables and constraints they have at their discretion when compared to the manager or individual players.

So I've come up with a rough first pass at what a GM in a Box would look like. I hope you'll add questions to the end of this article that you would like to see answered.

Ed Wade in a Box

Year of Birth:

1957

Years as GM:

Beginning Sixth Season. Hired during 1997-1998 off-season.

Influences:

He has worked in the Phillies organization since 1977, starting as a PR intern in 1977 and then moving on to an assistant to the GM in 1989 and then Assistant GM in 1994. Presumably Dallas Green made quite an impression has he has hired him as a special assistant to the GM. Likewise, former GM Paul Owens serves as a special assistant. The Phillies cling to their 1980 World Series championship like I hang on to old baseball guides, so it shouldn't be surprising that the GM and Manager of that magical 1980 season are still on the payroll. Ruben Amaro, Jr. serves as his current assistant and Mike Arbuckle is entering his tenth year as the Director of Scouting.

Characteristics as a player:

Never played as a major leaguer.

Management background:

Worked as an assistant GM for eight years before being promoted to GM. He is not listed as a scout from 1977 to 1989, so it appears he came up through the business end of the operation.

Record as GM and Finishes:

1998 75-87 3rd
1999 77-85 3rd
2000 65-97 5th
2001 86-76 2nd
2002 80-81 3rd
--------------
    383-426

Team's Age: Batting/Pitching

1998   27.1/29.3
1999   28.2/28.3
2000   28.6/28.7
2001   26.9/28.9
2002   27.5/28.5

As we'll see, Wade appears to rely on more veteran pitchers (at least in the pen) and then goes with younger starters and position players. The 2001 lineup was the youngest in the National League.

Rookies who have debuted in major roles on his watch:

Marlon Anderson (1998), Randy Wolf (1999), Carlton Loewer (1998), Pat Burrell (2000), Jimmy Rollins (2001), Johnny Estrada (2001), Brandon Duckworth (2001), Brett Myers (2002), Carlos Silva (2002), Marlon Byrd (2003, on a side note these are the only two major leaguers named Marlon)

The circumstances of his hiring:

On December 9th, 1997, Philadelphia Phillies president David Montgomery fired Lee Thomas. Ed Wade, Thomas' assistant, become acting general manager with full responsibility for running the team's baseball operations and was then promoted to GM and VP on March 24th, 1998.

What staff moves has he made?

He fired Terry Francona (2000) who was hired by the previous administration, and then hired Larry Bowa. He appears to really like hard ass managers/advisors. It doesn't get more intense than Dallas Green and Larry Bowa.

Does he work under any special circumstances?

Despite operating in one of the two or three largest solo markets in the country, the Phillies have ranked in the bottom half of payroll for most of Wade's tenure. That has changed this year, but it is hard to say how much has been due to Wade's inaction and how much due to David Montgomery and Bill Giles's direction. I would have to guess the latter.

Is he the face of the organization?

I would say no. Larry Bowa is seen as the face of the Phillies and is very popular here. I seem to read more press about Dallas Green and Mike Arbuckle than Ed Wade.

What were his biggest trades?

Wade has had to make a pair of blockbuster trades during his tenure. These have involved disgruntled stars who didn't feel that the Phillies were spending enough to compete.

Traded Curt Schilling to the Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Travis Lee, Vincente Padilla and Nelson Figueroa (2000).

Traded Scott Rolen, Doug Nickle and Cash to the Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, and Mike Timlin (2002).

In both cases, the players in question were not happy about being there. It also didn't appear that the Phillies made much of an effort to sign either player to a longer deal.

Also, in both cases it appears that Wade lost the trades. Schilling has pitched 613 innings with a 3.20 ERA and has gone 50-19 since his trade. Padilla has been pretty good, making an All-Star team, winning 19 games, and pitching 270 IP at a 3.63 ERA. Daal was traded after the 2001 season, but threw 257 innings at a 4.52 ERA (15-16). Figueroa threw a nice 89 innings in 2001, and then moved on. And rather than replacing Rico Brogna, Travis Lee turned into him, hitting a mediocre .258/.343/.402 in 1400 plate appearances, though he delighted booing Phillies fans with his nimble play around the sack. He'll be anchoring the Devil Rays lineup this year.

Bud Smith has gone down to an injury and Mike Timlin has left via free agency, so all they have to show for Scott Rolen is a .296/.333/.390 career hitter (Placido Polanco) and a lot of extra cash.

What was his best trade?

I'd probably say Robert Person (38-24, 606 IP, 4.23 ERA, though the last year cost them $6.2m) for Paul Spoljaric (71 IP and out of the majors for two years) (1999). The fans in the 700 level were able to trot out a "Person's People" sign (to go along with "Padilla Flotilla" and the "Wolf Pack") after struggling mightily to come up with anything catchy for Spoljaric.

You may laugh, but trading Doug Glanville for Mickey Morandini (pre-1998) was in and of itself a good move. Sticking with Glanville as long as he did or giving him over $8m was not such a good move.

You probably want to know where Jeremy Giambi (for John Mabry, 2002) is. Given how little playing time he got, I'm not going to put him here.

We don't know how Kevin Millwood (for Johnny Estrada, pre-2003) will turn out, but it is hard to argue that it wasn't a pretty good trade. Millwood is expensive, but he has been a good starter to great starter in his first six years, and Estrada is a mid-level prospect.

What was his worst trade?

It's hard to say, there haven't been any really atrocious trades. Based on just 2002, Jose Santiago for Paul Byrd wasn't a good move, though the Phillies have a lot of starting pitching on the way.

Andy Ashby for Carlton Loewer, Steve Montgomery and Adam Eaton didn't really work out for anyone. But then again neither did Andy Ashby for Jimmy Osting and Bruce Chen.

Did he try to solve problems with minor leaguers from his roster or major leaguers from other rosters?

If you look at the position players, they do seem to bring guys up from the minors to patch holes or work as backups. Guys like Eric Valent (2001), David Doster (1998), Kevin Sefcik (1998-2000), Johnny Estrada (2001), Kevin Jordan (1998-2001). The 2002 Phillies have five homegrown positional starters, the 1998 Phillies had two.

On the pitching side, Wade has used more homegrown starters (Wolf, Duckworth, Myers, Loewer), and foreign grown relievers (Mesa, Cormier, Plesac). Six of the top ten in starts in his tenure are local and three of the top ten in relief appearances are locally grown.

Did any prospects he traded away exceed expectations?

Nope, Bobby Estalella and Wendell Magee have been stathead faves, but they are essentially replacement level.

Trading Partners:

The Phillies trade a good deal within their division. They have made many deals with the Mets, a pair of big trades with the Braves involving starting pitchers. He's made two large trades with the Cardinals (Gant, Brantley, Bottalico, et al being the other).

Did he accurately gauge the ability of his club to compete when making moves?

Not really, the 2000 team flamed out badly after he acquired Andy Ashby as the big off-season pickup. He quickly cut bait and got Bruce Chen, a leading prospect at the time.

The 2001 team won 86 games, but Wade added only minor parts (Rickey Ledee, John Mabry) during the off-season and the team backslid to 80 wins. To some degree his hands were tied as they wanted to play Rollins and Anderson up the middle, and the big contract he gave to Doug Glanville made him as unmovable as an obese dwarven warrior wearing chainmail and two sets of plate armor.

Did he acquire players undervalued by their current franchise?

Mr. Jeremy Giambi, who of course, was moved along for what John Mabry was probably worth (Josh Hancock).

Does he draft college or high school talent?

Scouting director Mike Arbuckle has been on the job nearly ten years, so I'm uncertain as to how much impact Wade has on this area of the team. Regardless, Baseball America has consistently viewed the Phillies minor league system as strong.

If you look at the last five drafts here are how the top three rounds break down.
HS Pitchers: 6 (Brett Myers)
HS Position: 3
College Pitchers:
College Position: 4 (Pat Burrell, Eric Valent)

They've also lost picks for signing Jose Mesa (Lazaro Abreu for Seattle), Rheal Cormier (Kelly Shoppach for Boston), and Mike Jackson (Derek Thompson for Cleveland).

Has he acquired any significant foreign talent?

The Phillies have been working on expanding their foreign signings. Carlos Silva provided 84 very good innings. The lower you look in their system the more foreign born prospects you see.

What are the largest contracts he has given out, including free agency?

The Phillies are clearly anticipating a big revenue jump from the new stadium. They have always been accused (with good reason) of being a cheap franchise. They've emptied the bank this offseason.

Bobby Abreu - 2002 off-season - 5 years/$64m

Jose Mesa - 2002 - extension at 1 year/$4.75m

Mike Lieberthal - 2002 - 3 years/$22m

Jim Thome - 2003 off-season - 6 years/$85m

Randy Wolf - 2003 off-season - 4 years/$22.5m

Pat Burrell - 2003 off-season - 6 years/$50m

David Bell - 2003 off-season - 4 years/$17m

He also went on a mini-orgy following the 2000 season signing up bullpen arms like Rickey Botallico, Rheal Cormier, and Jose Mesa. He has brought in other vets like Mike Timlin, Dan Plesac, Turk Wendell, Dennis Cook, and Mike Jackson (who was DL'ed the entire year) for significant dollars.

Does he prefer to spread his money around to several free agents or pool it for a big score?

The Thome signing and Glavine courting not withstanding, definitely spread it around. I don't believe Wade has ever had a player even close to the top ten highest paid players in the league. No one cracked $7m until Rolen last year.

Over the course of Wade's time with the Phillies, their highest paid players have ranged from Ron Gant to Andy Ashby to Mike Lieberthal to Scott Rolen with other players like Jeff Brantley, Rico Brogna, Robert Person, Omar Daal, Turk Wendell and Doug Glanville appearing in the top five.

In this regard, it doesn't strike me that Wade has been spending his budget wisely. While the Phillies top players have been good, cheap youngsters, they have been filling in around them with mediocre to poor veterans rather than getting one stud free agent. David Bell is an extension of this policy. Jim Thome most decidedly is not.

Has he found any significant help on the waiver wire, through the Rule V draft, or with minor league free agents?

This year's Non-roster-invitee list doesn't appear to have any Ken Phelps All-Stars on it. Likewise, the 40-man roster is mostly big-time free agent acquisitions or Phillies' farmhands.

In 1998, Paul Byrd was claimed off waivers. In 2000, Brian Hunter (the other one) was claimed off waivers, again from Atlanta. They released Tony Fiore (who is useful) and Billy McMillon (who many believe is useful). Steve Sparks was briefly in their system as well. This year in the Rule V draft, they lost 3B Travis Chapman, who hit .301/.388/.473 in AA, to the Tigers in a move which may be hard to take after three years of David Bell.

Is he an innovator in any way?

Not that I can see.

Summary

Wade isn't great, but he isn't terrible either. Like the Phillies during his tenure, non-descript may be the best description. I'd rate him a below average trader, but his handling of the farm system and willingness to go with youngsters as above average. The Phillies seem to have been hurt by poor benches and poor bullpens over the last few years. It strikes me that Wade is not able/willing to exploit the transactions that occur at the fringes of the roster (positions 20-25). For instance, I can't see the Phillies expending the type of effort the Red Sox did to get Kevin Millar.

This off-season is the first time in recent memory that the Phillies have done anything of real consequence, and Ed Wade's job security will almost undoubtedly depend upon how many 90-win seasons the Phillies have the next three or four years. If they manage to make the playoffs a few years, I think we'll see him on the job for well over ten years. If the Phillies don't break .500 any of the next three years (which looks unlikely), he and Bowa will be gone pretty quickly. All in all, Wade has the Phillies in a position where they can compete and compete strongly for at least the next three years.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player        G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Lieberthal  116 424  45 117 28  1 14  52  37  53  0  1 .276 .334 .446
1B Thome       152 511  97 148 25  1 39 112 119 159  1  2 .290 .424 .571
2B Polanco     145 535  75 162 28  3  6  44  26  39  7  3 .303 .335 .400
3B Bell        146 517  77 138 28  1 18  70  46  71  1  2 .267 .327 .429
SS Rollins     159 641  90 171 30 11 13  63  54  98 23 17 .267 .324 .409
LF Burrell     154 561  86 157 33  2 34 107  84 153  1  0 .284 .374 .528
CF Byrd        140 528 102 154 32  6 18  65  44 100 14  3 .292 .346 .477
RF Abreu       160 583 106 178 49  6 25  91 107 122 32 12 .305 .413 .539
c  Pratt        63 143  19  34 10  0  4  16  27  41  1  0 .238 .359 .392
if Houston     100 292  33  80 16  1 10  40  17  63  1  0 .274 .314 .438
if Perez        78 184  18  47 11  1  4  18  17  34  1  0 .255 .318 .391
of Ledee       106 309  41  72 18  2  8  44  41  68  6  4 .233 .323 .382
of Michaels    110 355  50  92 22  3 10  51  28  96  5  3 .259 .313 .423

PO Player      W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Millwood   12 11 3.74 32 32 195 191 81 19 66 171
SP Wolf       11 10 3.97 30 30 195 208 86 22 63 178
SP Padilla     9  8 3.68 36 26 171 199 70 14 44 126
SP Duckworth   8 10 4.40 31 29 180 188 88 26 68 167
SP Myers       9 12 4.73 29 28 179 220 94 27 51 120
RP Adams       9  8 3.94 47 18 144 147 63  9 53 110
RP Cormier     5  5 4.35 58  0  60  59 29  6 25  45
RP Plesac      4  3 3.82 61  0  40  26 17  5 22  47
RP Wendell     4  7 5.45 73  0  71  72 43 12 40  61
RP Silva       4  4 4.50 46 16 134 176 67 18 26  71
CL Mesa        5  4 4.03 71  0  76  65 34  7 35  64
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.