Atlanta Braves
Last year the Atlanta Braves los
Last year the Atlanta Braves lost stalwart Tom Glavine and
their historic 2002 bullpen. Demise was predicted. Out of this pessimism rose
an offence that fired on all cylinders. Coming in to this year, they have lost
Greg Maddux and many keys run producers. Is their an element of the team that
can pick up the slack the way the bats did in 2003?
No, there is not…Unless Rockin’ Leo Mazzone and Bobby Cox
can throw together an out-of-nowhere bullpen that rivals the 2002 version.
Jaret Wright may be the 2004 Chris Hammond, but even the 2002 Braves didn’t
think about putting Chris Hammond in the starting rotation.
The Braves, like the Boston Red Sox, had just about every
player playing at optimal level last year. A Bill Muellar here, a Javy Lopez
there… even Vinny Castilla seems to have had one of his Bret Saberhagenesque
alternating good years. The 2002 Braves offence was brutal at catcher, first
base, second base, third base … well pretty much everywhere save for the Jones
boys and Sheffield. They had nowhere to go but up. At first glance it's hard to
see where they can make up the losses this year.
That being said, this is still a 101 (and, um, 96 Pythagorean) win team. Even
in a division with a stacked Phillies club, and the defending World Champion
Florida Marlins, the Braves have a ways to fall before they can be completely
written off. Let’s look at what they’re dealing with…
With big help from
MGLs Super Linear Weights
(Totals are not position adjusted) and Ultimate Zone Ratings, TangoTigers
Fan’s Scouting
Report, Jay Jaffe’s
2003 DIPS numbers and
BaseballGraphs.com’s Win Shares Reports… I present the 2004 Atlanta Braves.
The Known Quantities
Shortstop
2003 – Rafael Furcal (.292/.352/.443 in 730 PA)
2004 – Rafael Fucal (ZiPS: .295/.355/.430)
2003 Breakdown
|
|
Super Lwts |
Win Shares |
|
Defence |
UZR |
+7 |
5 |
|
GDP def |
0 |
|
Offence |
Batting |
+9 |
20 |
|
Base Running |
+4 |
|
SB/CS |
+4 |
|
GIDP |
+5 |
|
Total |
+28 |
25 |
|
NL position rank |
2nd |
2nd |
|
Most Similar Fielder |
Nomar
Garciaparra |
Rafael Furcal 2004 is quite a different player than the one
we thought we’d see 4 years after his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2000. He’s
changed more than the anticipated simple
regression to the mean,
sophomore slump, or correction in
year of birth
can explain.
First came injuries, from which he thankfully retained his speed and arm. He
has lost a lot of the patience that made him such a prototypical leadoff man in
the minors and in his rookie year, but last year he picked up some power to
compensate. This allowed him, after two stalled years in 2001 and 2002, to
re-establish an all-star calibre level of performance.
As you can see from MGL’s valuable Super LWTS numbers,
Furcal’s speed makes him a more valuable asset than a player with his offensive
numbers
would normally be. Only Carlos Beltran added more runs of offence with his
speed and baserunning smarts.
|
Name |
base running |
sb/cs |
gdp |
Total Speed |
|
Carlos Beltran |
6 |
6 |
2 |
14 |
|
Rafael Furcal |
4 |
4 |
5 |
13 |
|
Cristian Guzman |
4 |
0 |
8 |
12 |
|
Ichiro Suzuki |
5 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
|
Randy Winn |
1 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
|
Carl Crawford |
0 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
|
Derek Jeter |
4 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
Furcal may not be the player that we were expecting him to
be, but he’s a very valuable property. ZiPS expects a very similar 2004 to his
2003. Outside of a .300/.360/.430 performance, I expect Furcal will continue to
be a plus fielder with a cannon arm, a decent on-base threat, and one of the
most exciting baserunners in baseball.
Second Base
2003 – Marcus Giles (.316/.390/.526 in 624 PA)
2004 – Marcus Giles (ZiPS .317/.398/.517)
2003 Breakdown
|
|
Super Lwts |
Win Shares |
|
Defence |
UZR |
+2 |
7 |
|
GDP def |
0 |
|
Offence |
Batting |
+27 |
21 |
|
Base Running |
+3 |
|
SB/CS |
+1 |
|
GIDP |
+2 |
|
Total |
+36 |
28 |
|
NL position rank |
1st |
1st |
|
Most Similar Fielder |
Reed
Johnson |
Finally. Marcus Giles’ 2003 is the season Braves fans have
been expecting since he broke out big time in low-A ball in 1998. It’s also for
real. ZiPS is right on the mark in projecting another top notch season from
Giles. Like Furcal, he’s a positive in just about every area of the game. The
Braves are set in middle infield for the next few years.
The Giles brothers are about to go on a historically great
(à la DiMaggios or Waners) run of brother-brother seasons.
Best Brother-Brother Seasons (Position Players Only… sorry
Gaylord)
|
Rank |
Year |
Brothers |
Big Brother |
WS |
Little Brother |
WS |
Total WS |
|
1 |
1941 |
DiMaggios |
Joe |
41 |
Vince |
24 |
65 |
|
2 |
1927 |
Waners |
Paul |
36 |
Lloyd |
25 |
61 |
|
3 |
1942 |
DiMaggios |
Joe |
32 |
Dom |
28 |
60 |
|
3 |
1948 |
DiMaggios |
Joe |
34 |
Dom |
26 |
60 |
|
3 |
1928 |
Waners |
Paul |
34 |
Lloyd |
26 |
60 |
|
6 |
1929 |
Waners |
Paul |
30 |
Lloyd |
27 |
57 |
|
7 |
1937 |
DiMaggios |
Joe |
39 |
Vince |
17 |
56 |
|
8 |
1932 |
Waners |
Paul |
32 |
Lloyd |
23 |
55 |
|
9 |
1968 |
Alous |
Felipe |
31 |
Matty |
23 |
54 |
|
10 |
1950 |
DiMaggios |
Joe |
29 |
Dom |
24 |
James Fraser
Posted: April 02, 2004 at 07:10 AM | 0 comment(s)
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