Chicago Cubs

The Cubs entered the 2003 season with greater expectations than should be permitted for a team coming off of 95 losses. This mostly (but not entirely) irrational exuberance was fueled by excitement over a number of things. First, the dour reign of Don Baylor was over, taken over by Dusty Baker, a manager with a very successful ten-year track record and a man who exuded confidence and competence in ways Cubs fans could barely imagine. There was the pitching, led by the 22 year-old Mark Prior who emerged perfectly formed, like Athena from the head of Zeus. Then there were a number of other things to be excited about, including an almost entirely new bullpen, Todd Hundley being 2000 miles away, a revamped bench, and the existence of young homegrown position players with honest-to-God star potential, a commodity few Cubs fans can remember seeing.

The sabermetric consensus was somewhat positive, but more tempered. I thought the 2003 team had a significantly non-zero chance of making it to the post-season, perhaps something in the neighborhood of 10-15%, with a two-thirds chance of winning somewhere between 75 and 88 games. If the Cubs were to make good, it would involve everything falling into place in terms of the talented starting pitching, enough to make up for a middling offense. That was pretty much what happened. The Cubs got off to a decent start, going 30-24 in April and May, but then slipped to the .500 mark after a hitting slump in June and pitching slump in July. Aided by some late roster additions and a weak schedule, the Cubs then turned it on. They capped things off with a September flourish, going 19-8 (best since 1938) with a 3.43 team ERA, ending with 88 wins, just enough for a Central Division title. The juggernaut continued as the Cubs trounced the Braves in the Division series, and then went on to win three of the first four NLCS games against the Marlins. The rest was, well, I don't want to talk about it. Really, the post-season stuff was gravy; I would have enjoyed watching this team come into its own even if they had matched their Pythagorean record (85-77) and gone home. Honest.

Now in 2004, the pundits are even more bullish on the Cubs, with many if not most picking them to win the Division, and virtually everyone seeing them as strong contenders. Despite the post-season cliffdive and the requisite sense of impending doom all Cubs fans feel whether they acknowledge it or not, the exuberance is back. Not exuberance, actually - Cubs fans are downright giddy.

I'm not prone to giddiness, but I'm pretty optimistic about this team, probably more than for any Cubs team in my life as a sabermetrically aware fan. Using my Sooper Seekrit formula, I'll make a bullseye projection of 91-71, and call a two-thirds chance of winning between 84 and 98 games. I'm not sure that they are as good as the Astros, but it's very close, and I guess there is a 40-45% chance that the Cubs will win a post-season berth.

Overall, I see the Cubs winning on strong pitching, both starting and in relief. The offense should move from mediocre to a bit above average, although the combined vagaries of age and youth make it tough to project. Defense should be averagish, but with the pitchers taking care of a disproportionate number of outs via the K, not a major concern.

But once again, this team has flaws. Last year, the cards generally fell in the Cubs' favor and they eked out a title. If things fall the other way, particularly in terms of pitching, watch out below.

The Starting Pitching:

The Cubs' new status as projected winners rests largely on the strength of their starting pitching, which is extremely talented, young, and now with a year of success under its belt. The 2003 team featured a top four of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement, all of whom posted at least 200 innings (first for a Cubs team since 1975), put up a combined 3.20 ERA, and averaged 24.5 years of age. Shawn Estes brought up the rear as left-handed albatross. Of course, Estes will be replaced by Greg Maddux, who could only do worse if Dusty made him throw left-handed. In aggregate, I see Prior/Wood/Zambrano/Clement being as valuable as they were last year, with the main difference being Maddux replacing Old Oily Rags. That makes the Cubs quite a bit better, perhaps 4 wins or so. The addition of Maddux gives the Cubs the fifth, seventh and thirteenth highest GB/FB ratios from 2003, but one should not conclude that the team gets a lot of groundball outs. Due to their record strikeout totals, the 2003 Cubs ranked 22nd and 29th in groundball and flyball outs, respectively, despite ranking second in MLB in GB/FB.

Mark Prior has emerged as the most exciting young starter in the major leagues. As a 22 year-old, he picked up from his eye-opening 2002 debut, establishing himself as one of the top ten starters in the majors. There is nothing not to like. He has wicked stuff, outstanding command of it, and the mound poise of a grizzled veteran. His workout regime is state-of-the-art, and his dedication to it is legendary. If one has to predict a Hall of Fame career for a 22 year-old pitcher, Prior is probably the safest bet. Achilles' heels and heavy workloads aside, I expect great things.

Late addition: Prior's painful Achilles' heel is not getting better, and in the absence of any real basis for predicting a return date, speculation of three weeks to two months is being thrown around. Losing Prior for any appreciable amount of time hurts badly. You can conservatively shave a win off the Cubs' predicted total for every month he misses.

Kerry Wood has had a spotty career so far, marked by injury and some degree of inconsistency. He is a hard-thrower in the mold of a Nolan Ryan, but frequently suffers from command implosions and sudden big innings, a factor probably exacerbated by Dusty Baker's slow hook. Despite these start-to-start and inning-to-inning inconsistencies, he has established three straight half-seasons where he has posted ERAs of 3.21, 3.19 and 3.21. So, like his Nolan Ryan model, Wood has been successful in mixing his poorer starts with remarkably good ones. Wood's biggest bugaboo is inconsistent control, but he has shown some reasonably long stretches with a good walk rate (34 BB in 106.2 IP in the second half of 2002). If he matures and manages to establish a new level in terms of walks, he will need to get a bigger trophy case. If not, I'll take what he's done over the last year and a half.

Carlos Zambrano came into his own in 2003, establishing his highly effective sinker, getting a ton of groundballs and very effectively preventing home runs. Zambrano's weakness is general volatility. He seems to respond to high-pressure situations by throwing harder, not a recommended strategy for a sinker-baller. He also has a tendency to throw hissy fits on the mound. As good a year as he had, Zambrano remains a raw commodity, and I consider him difficult to project. I take some comfort viewing the major league G/F ratio leaders, and seeing Zambrano's name among them.

Matt Clement came in with his second straight strong year, throwing 20 quality starts, just one fewer than Zambrano and two fewer than Wood. Clement is a classic sinker/slider pitcher, one who is prone to some fairly catastrophic command problems that manifest in ugly wild pitches and hit batsmen. After posting a .275 BABIP in 2002, Clement managed to come up with an even lower .264 figure in 2003, at the same time seeing his strikeout rate decline back to his career average. I think Clement has matured into a good, reliable, inning eating pitcher, perhaps not worth the kind of money he is likely to command as a free agent after this season, at least not to a pitching-rich team like the Cubs. A breakout is not out of the question, but I think 2002 is his peak.

Greg Maddux returns, replacing Shawn Estes' spot on the roster. Cubs fans love this for a number of sentimental reasons, in addition to the fact that he is likely to be a solid innings eater. Maddux is not the pitcher he once was, with his strikeout rate way down and his home run rate going up, but he's still pretty effective. His fastball lacks what it once had, but combined with his still excellent change-up, he's still effective when his command is on, which is most of the time. Maddux is an important acquisition for the 2004 Cubs, providing insurance against possible attrition from the other starters, something this team could not afford.

The Sixth Man on this starting rotation is "injury", which could spell disaster for this team's hopes (no more Achilles' Heel metaphors, please). With the prospects for a middling offense, and the possibility of much worse, the Cubs' success relies on the starting pitching repeating its 2003 performance more than anything else, and the loss of one or two of the above pitchers could kill the Cubs chances in 2004. Baker worked his young staff hard in 2003, seeming consistently to stretch his starters out an extra inning or two. Wood exceeded 120 pitches in 12 starts last season, putting up a 4.25 RA after those starts compared to 2.76 otherwise. The 22 year-old Prior exceeded 120 pitches nine times, with counts of 131, 129, 110, 124, 131 and 133 in the month of September, followed by 133, 116 and 119 in the post-season. Despite his good numbers, he did not look the same to me in the playoffs. After throwing 129 pitches on September 14, Zambrano had a RA of 8.56 in five starts, two in September and three in the playoffs, with zero quality starts.

What does this mean? I dunno. It's reasonable cause for concern though. Fact is, Dusty Baker doesn't give a rat's ass about pitch counts, and Cubs pitchers will go deep into games as long as he is manager. That you can take to the bank.

Juan Cruz was traded on March 25th to Atlanta for Adam Pratt and Richard Lewis. Not knowing a whole lot about Pratt, he seems to be a left-handed version of Cruz in terms of promise and failure to pull it all together. He has a decent fastball and excellent curve, with command problems. With Remlinger hurt and Mercker's back a major concern, he could prove useful as a lefty in the bullpen this season. Lewis is a speedy first-round drafted second baseman who hasn't done a whole lot in the minors, and being a right-handed hitter, isn't likely to find a job in Chicago any time soon. No word on how his girlfriend has recovered from her bout with Cheryl David's brownies.

The Bullpen:

Last year I nicknamed Jim Hendry "Retail" based on his Michigan Avenue shopping spree for bullpen help. The 2002 team had a dreadful relief corps, and Hendry rightly looked to improve it in the off-season, but he did not learn the lesson he should have from Joe Borowski's excellent performance: that good relievers are often found under the sofa cushions. Hendry spent over $11 million on relievers, succeeding in improving the bullpen from awful to average. This year he went on a similar spree, again adding some expensive arms. While last year he managed to improve the bullpen from horrible to average, a similar upgrade from average to quite good might be in the offing in 2004.

Joe Borowski (closer): Amazingly, in spite of his excellent 2002 season as a set-up man, Borowski was nearly the odd man out at the beginning of the 2003 season, only securing a sure roster spot when Antonio Alfonseca got hurt in Spring Training. But once again, he made the best of his opportunity, got the closer's job by default and kept it, and basically repeated his 2002 performance. Borowski's strengths are command and control. He is not particularly over-powering, but has a good slider and change-up to complement his solid low-90s fastball, and he seems to spot all of his pitches perfectly. Since his pitches are not overpowering and often come in as strikes, I have to think he's hittable despite his low hit and HR totals, and with some bad luck I can see him throwing the same pitches and posting an ERA considerably higher than he posted the last two years. Still, I expect him to be solid, and after two years of pulling it off I'm discounting luck and concluding that he's a very smart pitcher. The Cubs plan to have him return as closer, a role in which he is somewhat protected from the occasional fastball over the plate. Joe Bo is one of those guys you've got to love, an underdog who fought hard and made good, and it's great to see him finally getting his due.

La Troy Hawkins (first righty setup man): Hendry went back to Neiman Marcus this offseason and came back with Hawkins, signing him to a lucrative three year deal. Like Borowski, Hawkins comes in with a starter's pitch repertoire, with a blazing fastball and slider, mixing in curves and split-finger pitches to keep hitters off balance. Hawkins has also established great command the last two years, walking only 30 in 157.2 innings and striking out 138. Hawkins is likely to see the most high leverage bullpen innings, a job for which he is well suited. Between Borowski and Hawkins, both of whom have been very stingy with the home run, it will be very tough for the Cubs opponents to make comebacks in the late innings. His 2001 season as closer for the Twins, where he walked more batters than he struck out, is hopefully a distant memory. A few bad appearances from Borowski could open up the closer's job for Hawkins, but Baker has shown a tendency to stick with relievers in certain situations (cough Alfonseca cough) and he might be slow with the trigger. I'd rather see the better pitcher stay in the primary set-up spot, and it will take awhile before I conclude that that is someone other than Hawkins.

Mike Remlinger (first lefty setup man): Remlinger was Hendry's big 2003 bullpen addition, which yielded less than stellar results. Remlinger had a decent year, but he was not his former home run stingy self, giving up 11 dingers in 68 innings, and saw a big spike in his walk totals as well. As a Brave, Remlinger was not used as a classic LOOGY, seeing a good number of righty batters, a trend that did not continue under Dusty. Remlinger's results against lefties were similar to what they were in previous years, however, giving up a .785 OPS against them compared to .623 against righties. This has been true for the last three years, with Remlinger showing a strong reverse split 2001-03 (.789 against lefties, .570 against righties), with at least a .100 OPS difference in each season. Is this real? I don't know - even over the three years we're talking about a mere 253 AB against left-handers. One thing is for sure, and that is that Remlinger's hard slider looks like it should be a very tough pitch for lefties to hit. Overall, I'd like to see Baker be a bit more flexible with Remlinger and use him for longer stints and not worry so much about match-ups. Remlinger seemed to get his tater tendencies under control in the second half, giving up only one home run after July 21st. Unfortunately, he came to camp with some shoulder issues, which may keep him out of action well into the season. Look for Hendry to acquire a lefty reliever in his place.

Kyle Farnsworth (second righty setup man): Farnsworth's career has been a mixed bag to say the least, with periods of brilliance mixed in with long stetches of unbelievable incompetence. People tend to cite a lack of maturity for that, and clearly he was doing little more than punching the clock in his disastrous 2002 season, where he put up a 7.33 ERA and fooled no one with his high-90s, clothesline fastball. But there's more to it than maturity; like many power pitchers, Farnsworth lives and dies with number two, which has varied between a splitter and a hard curve, and his mechanical weaknesses make that all the more dangerous.

Kent Mercker (second lefty setup man): After a few years of being knocked around like a pi񡴡, Mercker settled in with a nice 2003 season, posting a sparkling 1.95 ERA between Cincinnati and Atlanta. He was rewarded with a $1.2 million salary. While his ERA was great, his secondary stats were unremarkable, with 32 walks and 48 strikeouts in 55.1 IP. He had a sore back late in the season, and his K rate seemed to drop in conjunction with that. Mercker gets my vote for probable Cub public enemy number one next season, an honor that has to go to someone. Still, you could do a lot worse for a fifth guy in the bullpen. With Remlinger out, Mercker stands as the first lefty setup man.

Juan Cruz (Maytag Repairman): Cruz emerged on the scene as a potential savior in 2001, filling in for the injured spot in the Cub rotation after Zambrano and Borowski failed, responding with a 3.22 ERA in eight starts. The following season, he assumed a spot in the starting rotation, but he posted a 1-7 record in eight starts and was relegated to the bullpen. People note that he had a decent 3.75 ERA in those starts, but he gave up nine unearned runs to go with 19 earnies, and when things started to go bad he looked like a frightened squirrel on the mound. He finished out the season in the bullpen, doing a decent job and seeming to get on track. Last year, Baker didn't give Cruz a chance to find a groove, only reluctantly allowing him to start and giving him inconsistent bullpen work. Baker's lack of confidence in Cruz is summarized in Game 2 of the NLCS, when he left Prior in to throw seven innings with a 10 run lead. With Maddux added to the roster, Cruz has no shot at starting, unless someone gets hurt, which of course could (is likely?) to happen. One thing is certain and that is that the fourth righty spot in the bullpen will be a hindrance to his development, particularly under Baker who refuses to use long relievers in mop-up situations. In his 23 career starts, Cruz has never thrown seven full innings. It's hard to say whether this is due to a lack of stamina or due to doubts about his stamina based on his extremely skinny frame. Cruz has an option year left, so he should start 2004 in Iowa, only to be brought up if needed as a starter. Even in light of major concerns, he serves as very good insurance should one of the starters get hurt, that is, if Baker would trust him.

The Position Players:

The Cubs are not a Moneyball team - far from it. Both Hendry and Baker have voiced disdain for the "Oakland approach", de-emphasizing on-base percentage and encouraging an "aggressive" approach at the plate which often translates into poor plate discipline. In spite of that, the Cubs have probably succeeded in improving their offense over last year, when they ranked ninth in runs and eleventh in OPS. The improvement is marked by a a big upgrade at first base, and minor upgrades or relative stability at other positions. But how optimistic can one be about an offense that features Mark Grudzielanek as its leadoff hitter and Moises Alou in the cleanup spot? Overall, the Cubs offense promises to be averagish and extremely right-handed, with the potential to be considerably better or worse depending on the whims of fortune.

Catching:

Cubs catchers hit badly in 2003, posting a .660 OPS, good for thirteenth in the league. Damian Miller got good marks for his handling of pitchers and capping the running game, but he was a disappointment with the bat, putting up his worst offensive season since his rookie year. Now Miller has been replaced by Michael Barrett, who looks like a younger version of Miller with similar skills and perhaps some upside. Paul Bako returns as the light-hitting backup. The situation promises to be better in 2004, but probably not by a great margin.

First Base:

First base is likely to be the position of greatest improvement for the 2004 Cubs. Last year, Cubs first basemen combined for a .818 OPS, eighth in the league, to be replaced by Derrek Lee, who should easily top that. It seems that a lot of Cubs fans are expecting a breakout from Lee more than hoping for it. 40+ HR and 150 OPS+ seasons are a possibility, but a more reasonably optimistic projection is a few years of 130+ OPS, something the Cubs haven't seen much of at first base in a long time. What's interesting is that Lee is not much different from Hee Seop Choi in his approach, being a guy who looks at a lot of pitches, draws a lot of walks and strikes out a ton, with a middling batting average. But he's a much surer thing, and that is what the Cubs organization wants in 2004.

Second Base:

Mark Grudzielanek had his second best season in 2003, hitting .314 and posting a .366 on-base percentage, while playing solid defense. To my eyes, Grudzielanek benefited from an awful lot of seeing-eye base hits in 2003, and the difference between 2003 and a typical Grudz season can be explained by a dozen or so balls that bounced in, so I expect him to revert to his career norm in 2004. The Cubs surprisingly acquired Todd Walker in the off-season, a much better, left-handed hitter with much worse defensive skills. Grudz has been promised the starting job, but the need to put a lefty bat in the lineup may be too strong a force to keep him in every day. As much as I prefer Walker as a hitter, Grudzielanek's defensive superiority probably makes up for it. Overall, I expect offense to be worse at 2B this year unless Walker starts a lot of games.

Third Base:

Hendry did something to end the third base curse last season, acquiring the volatile Aramis Ramirez before the trade deadline, bolstering what has been a disastrous position for decades. Although he was successful in the short term, I think the jury is still out regarding his success. Ramirez's career in Pittsburgh was a mixed bag; he showed tremendous promise as a 23 year-old, posting an .886 OPS and smacking 34 home runs, but followed that performance up with a dreadful .666 mark in 2002. Last year he split the difference between Pittsburgh and Chicago. Ramirez has tremendous power, but lacks plate discipline. His defense is legendarily bad, although he did seem to make some improvements last season. He reacts quickly, but inconsistently and with imprecision; he has a good arm, but he often botches throws. A lot of his defensive problems seem to stem from poor footwork. Right now he looks a bit like Vinny Castilla without the defensive skills, but at age 26, there is a lot of room for improvement. Ramirez promises to be a significant improvement over the sad set of failures the Cubs had at third base last year, although his awful 2002 is not far enough in the rear view mirror that I would entirely discount a disaster. Optimistically, the Cubs might get a 110 OPS+ from an everyday third baseman with average defense, which will seem really good to a Cubs fan.

Shortstop:

Alex Gonzalez returns in his contract year, after a season that was considered a huge disappointment. This is a bit puzzling since Gonzalez was pretty much exactly the same hitter he always is, with a bit less batting average and a few more home runs. He is not a smart offensive player at all, prone to horrible folly at the plate and on the basepaths, but he is good for something close to a .400 SLG which makes him valuable. He is a solid defensive shortstop with good hands and range. All measures indicate a defensive slump in 2002 after moving to the Cubs, but he seemed to bounce back to his career norms last season. Gonzalez is an extremely consistent player from year to year and we pretty much know what we're going to get from him.

Left Field:

Moises Alou returns for the final year of his big contract. Alou's skills as a hitter have declined seriously to the point where he is average for a left fielder, combined with mediocre defensive skills. Alou's bat speed seems to have departed from the days when he was putting up OPS+ marks in the 130-150 range, and at age 38 I think there is little hope for a resurgence. Rather, I think Cubs fans should be pleased if he manages merely to match his 2002-03 performances and ward off further decline. What Alou did manage last season was to show up, playing in 151 games. Hendry didn't do much to insure the position, adding only Todd Hollandsworth as insurance against decline or injury. In this heavily right-handed lineup that lacks good on-base ability, I would advocate hitting Alou in the second spot where his contact skills and decent on-base average might do some good, but I expect the veteran to get a spot somewhere in the middle of the order.

Center Field:

Corey Patterson is an extremely toolsy player who won a major league job based on those tools. His career development has not been unlike that of Alfonso Soriano, an extremely impatient hitter who swings at everything, but his outstanding bat speed and instincts can make up for that. But I can't help but wonder if pitchers will figure him out and he'll be the next Shawon Dunston. A major forward step was taken in 2003, as Patterson slugged over .500, hitting 13 homers and 7 triples in half a season. Unfortunately, it all ended with a torn ACL in July, an injury from which he appears to have recovered. Most projections see 2004 as a toned-down version of 2003 for Patterson, but I see a very volatile property and think just about anything could happen.

Right Field:

How bizarre was 2003 for Sammy Sosa? After a fine April, he suffered assaults to head and toe, followed by the infamous cork incident. When he started his suspension on June 11th, Sosa had not hit a home run in over a month. He got hot after his return and was instrumental in keeping the Cubs in the race, but he slipped after August 1st and posted only a .758 OPS in September, finishing with his worst season since before his breakthrough year in 1998. The optimists point out that even under these worst of circumstances Sosa was still pretty good, and assume that in the absence of odd events that he will bounce back. I'm not so sure. Sosa's emergence as one of the league's best hitters strongly correlated with an increase in his walk rate. Early in the 1998 season, Sosa started drawing walks, pitchers started throwing him strikes, and the rest was history. After drawing 23 walks before May 1st last year, Sosa drew only 39 afterward, with only 22 after the All Star Break. Maybe the lack of patience was the result of a loss of confidence and focus due to all the hoopla, or maybe Sosa has simply forgotten how he got here. He doesn't seem to have lost his bat speed, and ZiPS is unabashed in predicting a comeback. There is cause for optimism, but if his walk rate does not recover, Sosa will look a lot like the player he was in 1997, if that. Major decline from Sosa only puts more pressure on the pitching.

The Bench:

Predictably, Baker got himself a bench full of grizzled veterans in 2003, mostof them about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Poor to awful performances from Lenny Harris, Tony Womack, Doug Glanville, Augie Ojeda and Paul Bako should have been a surprise to no one, but things were made worse when guys who should have been useful like Troy O'Leary and Mark Bellhorn disappointed. A serviceable platoon at first base, a decent season from Tom Goodwin, and a typically solid year from Ramon Martinez were the bright spots. Only Bako, Goodwin and Martinez return, with the Cubs adding Jose Macias, Todd Walker and Todd Hollandsworth. This is not a strong bench, and does not provide the left-handed offensive strength this heavily right-handed starting lineup needs. However, it couldn't possibly be as bad as last year's (could it?), so it almost has to be an improvement.

The Future:

The Cubs took a major step forward last year, perhaps more in terms of appearance than substance. They are being taken far more seriously as an organization than they were in previous years. They are working toward being a box office draw on the order of the Red Sox, nearly selling out the season before its start, and doubling their previous first day ticket sale record. This and other factors give the Cubs the financial position and motivation to maintain a contending roster. However, Jim Hendry is not a performance evaluation guy, he's a scouting guy, and his decision-making reflects that, little to the satisfaction of analytical types like myself and people likely to be reading this. Whether the Cubs' lag on the learning curve in this regard will emerge as a problem remains to be seen, but the Cubs' historical problem with recognizing and fixing weaknesses seems to remain. What's different is that there is no longer a sense of complacency in the organization, and perceived problems will be taken care of. If key players come up lame or disappoint, or if problems like the lack of left-handed hitters emerge as obvious issues, look for the Cubs to aggressively seek help before the trade deadline. This may give the team an edge over their more parsimonious division rivals.

The crown jewel of the Hendry regime is player drafting and development, but right now it's in a bit of a trough, as evidenced by the Cubs' poor showing in various top prospect lists. There is some impressive talent in the organization, but most of it at the lower levels, and almost all of it pitching. The failure for the Cubs to bring up Bobby Hill and Hee Seop Choi and have them stick is a major disappointment, considering the team's horrible track record developing position players, and may reflect a systemic dysfunction in developing hitters. As 40-man roster issues arise regarding the large cohort of pitching prospects bubbling up, Hendry will have to trade some of them, either for position prospects or for major leaguers. Expect the latter - Hendry's primary motivation is to win now. Still, he will certainly try to skim off the cream for himself and, ignoring the sabermetric adage about sure-thing pitching prospects, one or more of Angel Guzman, Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Ricky Nolasco, Carmen Pignatiello, Reynal Pinto, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Justin Jones, or Andy Sisco is likely to be starring for the Cubs in a few years.

In summary, things look good for the Cubs in 2004 and beyond, definitely better than any time I can remember. But some of the classic problems that have historically plagued the Cubs organization remain, and I have to admit a vague sense that the axe is going to fall. But what would it mean to be a Cubs fan if I didn't feel that way? Back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in over thirty years will help me shake that off.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Sosa               rf  .278  .382  .594  144  532  104  148  31   1  45  124   84  143   0   1 
Lee                1b  .285  .394  .512  161  576   94  164  36   4  29  100   91  141  16   8 
Ramirez            3b  .282  .340  .478  159  613   73  173  37   1  27  101   42  100   3   2 
DuBois             lf  .266  .352  .444  124  417   54  111  25   2  15   60   51  115   2   3 
Walker*            2b  .292  .354  .432  149  595   87  174  38   3  13   76   52   67   3   5 
Alou               lf  .264  .345  .438  140  516   64  136  37   1  17   74   59   59   4   1 
Patterson*         cf  .284  .319  .458  123  489   65  139  22   6  17   68   21  104  17   4 
Harris             3b  .278  .349  .416  125  449   62  125  28   5   8   51   45   68   7   6 
Kelton             lf  .257  .335  .433  129  471   62  121  20   3  19   68   51  120   6   4 
Grudzielanek       2b  .285  .333  .394  131  502   63  143  35   1   6   57   27   75   4   3 
Martinez           2b  .273  .338  .368  108  304   33   83  18   1   3   31   28   46   1   1 
Hollandsworth*     lf  .255  .322  .407  109  322   36   82  24   2   7   39   32   71   4   7 
Barrett            c   .248  .315  .384  107  367   35   91  19   2   9   43   34   50   3   2 
Gonzalez           ss  .233  .300  .394  151  563   66  131  33   2  18   73   49  131   5   7 
Selby*             3b  .228  .292  .384  111  346   38   79  21   3   9   40   28   53   2   1 
Goodwin*           cf  .253  .308  .359   89  198   29   50  11   2   2   18   15   38  16   6 
Macias#            3b  .251  .296  .383  122  355   43   89  23   3   6   38   21   51   9   6 
Melian             lf  .235  .311  .352  117  409   44   96  14   2  10   45   41   93   9   7 
Jackson*           cf  .241  .297  .365  115  411   48   99  15   3  10   45   29   91  10   7 
Frese              ss  .226  .307  .323   90  288   31   65  11   1   5   28   31   66   1   1 
Bako*              c   .222  .300  .333   75  198   19   44  12   2   2   17   21   44   1   1 
Murray             cf  .216  .279  .316  109  329   41   71  15   3   4   27   26   61   8   5 
Lunar              c   .219  .260  .306   66  219   20   48   7   0   4   21    9   33   0   0 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Prior                2.33  17   5  29  29   197.0  144   51  14   37  247 
Hawkins              3.25   6   3  69   0    72.0   61   26   4   22   65 
Borowski             3.33   3   3  70   0    81.0   68   30   7   23   82 
Farnsworth           3.42   4   4  70   0    71.0   53   27   7   30   91 
Wood                 3.66  12  11  31  31   199.0  150   81  20   81  254 
Cruz                 3.67   6   6  34  12    98.0   82   40   7   40   96 
Maddux               3.74  14  12  35  35   212.0  220   88  19   39  130 
Zambrano             3.77  10  10  33  28   184.0  159   77   8   83  157 
Beltran              3.80   3   4  34   1    45.0   41   19   2   19   33 
Remlinger*           3.91   4   5  73   0    69.0   55   30   7   32   80 
Clement              4.13  10  13  32  32   192.0  169   88  19   82  180 
Guzman               4.17   5   6  21  20   123.0  120   57  10   45   81 
Leicester            4.25   3   5  39   8    91.0   78   43   8   46   88 
Mitre                4.44   8   6  28  26   156.0  176   77  11   42   73 
Wellemeyer           4.50   6   9  26  14    98.0   86   49  11   50   96 
Sanchez*             4.57   2   3  33   8    65.0   61   33   6   36   52 
Chiasson             4.57   3   4  56   0    61.0   59   31   8   23   51 
Glover               4.63   1   1  42  13   101.0  101   52  11   41   68 
Corey                4.66   3   7  51   4    87.0   91   45  11   30   41 
Ohman*               4.72   3   5  51   1    61.0   55   32  12   24   70 
Dempster             5.06   8  12  30  30   185.0  184  104  21  100  140 
Smyth*               5.07   3   7  22  21   119.0  118   67  16   57   90 
Anderson*            5.10   8  14  29  28   164.0  184   93  15   72   69 
Mercker*             5.25   1   2  61   0    48.0   44   28   7   28   45 
Wright               5.30   8  13  30  28   163.0  160   96  19   96  120 
Foster*              5.34   4   7  53   0    64.0   66   38  10   30   49 
Wuertz               5.65   4   7  33  23   145.0  156   91  27   70  110