Konerko's horrible 2003 season can be partly attributed to an absurdly low 19% hit rate in the first half. This wasn't all luck, since he was falling behind in the count constantly, lunging at outside pitches, fouling off inside pitches and jamming himself on pitches over the plate. He was in a truly monumental funk. He rebounded well in the second half though, putting up an .863 OPS and hitting 15 homers in 233 at bats. There is no reason to think that he won't pound out a .850 - .900 OPS in 2004 and resume his role as Carlos Lee's negative image.

2B Willie Harris (2003: D'Angelo Jimenez/Roberto Alomar/Tony Graffanino)

Initially, all the talk about Harris in Chicago revolved around how much he looked and played like Ray Durham. And there is something to those comparisons. Durham is now one of the best 50 or second baseman in history, but when he first slouched onto the scene in 1995 he was but a poor incarnation of his current self. And he continued to scuffle through 1997 before breaking out at age 26. Harris is a year or two behind Durham's development path, but his MLEs have been similar at the same level.

This isn't to say that Harris is going to be Durham; he surely isn't. However, there is still some promise that he may be able to hit a bit. That is, once the Sox stop insisting that he slap the ball around and hit in on the ground more. Let the poor guy be Ray Durham-lite and don't force him into the Juan Pierre mold.

3B Joe Crede (2003: Crede)

SS Jose Valentin (2003: Valentin/Graffanino)

From the "Better Late Than Never" file: apparently, this is the year that Jose Valentin will stop the switch-hitting charade that he has been carrying on for the last 25 years and only bat left-handed. I've been meaning to look this up but I have a hypothesis that Jose Valentin has the worst L/R splits of any switch-hitter in history. Never able to hit much against southpaws, Valentin has plummeted to a mere .157/.224/.267 in his last 217 at bats against them from 2001-2003. Jerry Manuel sent him to starboard side of the plate an inexcusable 115 times last season in which Valentin hit .131/.190/.196. Those numbers made him the worst switch hitter against lefties in the league last year by a good margin. Will he be better strictly as a left-handed batter? He couldn't be much worse, but it's not a sure thing. After all lefty swinging John Vander Wal hit only .158/.256/.211 against southpaws last year. The best answer for this dilemma is just to platoon Valentin with Juan Uribe. Unfortunately, the Sox are perilously weak on the bench (and are making themselves more so by carrying a dozen pitchers), so there are not enough bodies for this solution.

His defense always gets a bad rap but his arm is very strong and his footwork is good. All evidence suggests that he is wonderful on the double play. The extra dozen errors that he usually makes are more than balanced out by the dozen hits in the hole that he takes away and the extra baserunners that he helps eliminate with a nifty 6-4-3.

LF Carlos Lee (2003: Lee)

Say what you will about White Sox announcer Ken "Hawk" Harrelson (and I've said plenty), but he's the only voice in the game that still tries use nicknames. And I'm not talking about the insipid nicknames derived from a player's last name that sprung up, as one might have guessed, during the vapid 1980s. Know what I mean, Bainesy? Harrelson has created a score of original monikers that play on the background, style or image of a particular player. For more than a year, Harrelson struggled with a new handle for Carlos Lee, before finally committing to "El Caballo." True to his nickname, Lee was indeed a horse for the Sox in 2003. His .325/.350/.569 second half made him one of the dozen or so best hitters in the AL down the stretch.

Fantasy League Corner: Carlos Lee is one of the streakiest hitters in the majors. If he is hitting well at mid-season, dump him and if he's struggling, pick him up. He has yet to have season in which he was not both Jekyll and Hyde. A good bit of this is probably due to his problematic walk rate. Struggling in May 2002, Lee took the advice of Jerry Manuel and others and tried to wait for a "his pitch." This epiphany resulted in four consecutive months in which Lee drew between 12-19 walks each, more than he'd drawn in any single month of his career to that point . . . and, unfortunately, since that point as well. He drew only 13 walks in the entire second half of 2003. I am forced to conclude that Lee has little plan at the plate at this point in his career. And while he is a decent #6 hitter, his inability to learn the strike zone will prohibit him from ever becoming one of the better left fielders in the league. A career infielder until 1999, Lee has made himself into a capable defensive left fielder, but will never be confused with Rickey Henderson.

CF Aaron Rowand (2003: Carl Everett/Rowand/Willie Harris)

I observe here today not victory of statistics over observation, but a celebration of a great defensive centerfielder. So, let the word go forth from this website, to my friends and foes alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of gold glovers'born in this late-'70s, tempered by a 2000 season in Birmingham, disciplined by a hard and bitter crash off a dirt bike, proud of a Cal-State Fullerton heritage'and unwilling to witness or permit the absurd notion that Carl Everett is a centerfielder. Let every analyst know, whether they think me sane or ill, that I shall write any piece, buy any book, score any game, support any website, oppose any mediot to assure the recognition and the success of Rowand's career. Finally, to those sportswriters who would make themselves my adversary, I offer not a pledge but a request: that we begin anew the quest for sensible metrics before the dark theories unleashed by casual observations engulf all the sport in self-delusion. So let us begin anew'remembering on both sides that open-mindedness is not a sign of weakness, and analysis is always subject to proof. Let us never use statistics in ignorance. But let us never be ignorant of statistics. All of this will not be recognized in his first 100 games. Nor will it be recognized in his first 1000 total chances, nor even perhaps in the life of the Selig Administration. But let us begin. In your hands, my fellow baseball fans, more than mine, will rest the final success or failure of this quest. Now the organ summons us again'not as a call to "charge," though charge we must; not as a call to "kiss him goodbye," though kissed off we might be'but a call to a long twilight double-header'a struggle against the common enemies of player analysis: ignorance, dogmatism, rash generalizations, and sloppy argumentation. Will you join in that historic effort? In the long history of the sport, only a few generations have been granted the role of changing the way that we analyze defense. I do not shrink from this responsibility'I welcome it. The energy, the verve, the ardor that Rowand brings to centerfield will light our White Sox and all that root for it'and the glow from that fire can truly win the A.L. Central. So, my fellow Sox fans: ask not who can play center for us'ask how we can center our player. My fellow fans of baseball: ask not what Rowand in center will do for you, but what Rowand's recognition can do for the freedom of thoughtful analysis.

RF Magglio Ordonez (2003: Ordonez)

Now that we are likely beginning Ordonez's last year on the Southside, I'm feeling a bit nostalgic. When I just a young pup in my 20s, my friends and I have used to have this inane drinking game whose main feature was that whenever someone said "30" everyone had to drink. In a crowd of people, one of us would scream "30!" and suddenly a dozen people would chug. Alright, it wasn't that great, but we thought it was really funny. Anyway, we loved to go to White Sox games because we'd always get several good quaffs whenever Maggs came to the plate (and before him Rock Raines) and the announcer would boom his name and number. In addition, I'm sure that my rarely reticent father initiated the now ubiquitous "Ohweeoh, Magglio" cheer (sounds like the chant of the Wicked Witches guards in the Wizard of Oz), but that's another story.

Ordonez turned in a sub-par year, redeemed only by a crazy-hot July in which he hit .429/.474/.771. He hit over .300 in only two months and slugged over .510 in only one. It's fairly common for a great player to have a down year at the age of 30, but if I were a betting man, I'd say that ZiPS has pegged Maggs too high. You can take .295/.360/.530 to that bank though, and that's still a darn good player. By my calculation, Ordonez is the fourth greatest outfielder in Sox history, behind only Baines, Minoso and Shoeless Joe.

DH Frank Thomas (2003: Thomas/Daubach/Konerko)

Is it really that surprising that Frank Thomas has "slowed" as hitter in his mid-30s? He's a tall hitter with a long swing; isn't this exactly the kind of player that's likely to have to readjust their approach in their thirties? He's about at the same point in his career as Dave Winfield, another tall/long swing hitter, was in the late 1980s. In their 20s both Winfield and Thomas could stay on the plate looking to either kill an inside pitch or drive an outside pitch over the fence in right. It was their ability to do both of these things in their peaks that made them Hall of Famers. But since 2000, Frank has learned that the fastball away that he used to rope over the 375 sign in right center is now a solid fly out. Thomas tried to rely on the old ways in 2002 and early 2003, but then, unlike Winfield, he changed his methods. After drawing 58 walks but hitting only 17 homers in the first three months of 2003, Frank decided to jump on that first good pitch in the second half of the year. "I'm at a different point in my career as a hitter," Thomas said at mid-season. "I'm going to let it go a lot more. Quit worrying about the average and be a damaging hitter. When you get hot, max it out and quit trying to do things you did when you were younger." Frank vowed that "If I can get a ball close enough to me, I'm going to pull it. That's just the way it is. I don't care to go to right field anymore. From center to left is where I'm putting the ball right now." "It's not just a focus on homers," he said, "but airing it out." And air it out he did. From July 1 on, Thomas drew "only' 42 free passes but clouted 26 homers.

Can we imagine another year from Thomas like his 1991-1997 and 2000 seasons? Sure. After all, Winfield hit .322 at age 35, forty points over his career average. However, it's not likely. Most of the great players in history (See Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle Johnny Mize, Yogi Berra and Mel Ott) have posted their best batting average seasons by age 26, before settling into a comfortable routine. And if the last couple of years are Thomas's new routine then the Sox will just have to learn to live with a hitter than "only" posts an .890 OPS.

BENCH

The White Sox bench for 2004 should be just about as bad as one can be. For starters, Sandy Alomar Jr. won't go away. He has never contributed anything to the Sox that they didn't already have. Last year was another example of this, as the Sox had both Jamie Burke and Mike Rivera on their AAA roster, each of whom is at least Alomar's equal. Further, his once-vaunted throwing skills have deserted him to the point where he has nailed but 21% and 23% of those stealing on him in the last two years. The Sox have apparently decided to go with Alomar but might still leave open a roster slot for Burke, who can play the corner positions, in theory. Here's something I didn't think that I'd see. Can you believe that Juan Uribe has produced as well as Miguel Tejada did at the same age (Tejada ' OPS+ of 50, 78, 91; Uribe ' OPS+ of 98, 52, 78)? That said, Uribe seems a good deal more like Spike Owen than Tejada. Still, getting a 24-year old SS with three years big league experience for a 27-year old tweener second baseman like Aaron Miles is a solid gamble. Former Cub and Rockie prospect, Ross Gload had another typical minor league season for him ' he posted a strong season as a 28-year old in a hitter-friendly park by swinging at everything tossed in his general direction. Pardon me if I don't get too excited. And then there is the increasingly likely (and terrifying) chance that Kelly Dransfeldt will somehow make the roster, despite a life time OPS+ of 8 (!!!) and peak-age MLEs of 530 OPS. Dransfeldt is another example of how scouts will always give another chance to a guy that looks good in a pair of jeans but can't play the game.

ROTATION

Should we have seen this coming? Yeah, probably. Loaiza's always had strong command but our perceptions of him were clouded by A) his playing for horrible Pirates teams, B) his bad numbers at while pitching in the Bandbox at Arlington and C) two really unlucky seasons in Toronto. It's also likely that he should be able to hold his gains. He added a new cut fastball to his arsenal, which helped him bump his strikeout rate up over eight per nine innings. Take a look at Dennis Martinez's career after 1987. That's his upside.

Just dumb. The way that the Sox have handled Garland has been just dumb. At the time that the Sox gave Garland a rotation spot during the 2000 season, he had accumulated just 140 innings above A ball. The highlights of his resume were a very nice half season at AAA (despite bad ratios) and a promising but less-than-stellar half season in a big Carolina League park. So, Garland has had to learn to pitch in the big leagues while racking up service time. It's a nice gig, if you can get it. Garland has one of the better sinking fastballs (what the old-timers called a "heavy ball") in the majors and a curveball that can be just unhittable. But he is unable to locate either pitch consistently, resulting a run-of-the-mill ground ball ratio and a shockingly high HR rate for his type of pitcher. It is sobering to remember that Kevin Brown didn't learn to harness his uber-sinker until the age of 27 and that at Garland's age (still just 24), Brown had logged just 28 big league innings. Garland will get better, but because of poor development decisions by the Sox, it will probably be just about the time that he can declare for free agency.

For the past several years, the White Sox have tried to promote their most promising pitchers directly from AA Birmingham. Mark Buerhrle, Danny Wright, Kip Wells, Scott Eyre, David Sanders, Neal Cotts, Matt Ginter and Josh Stewart never appeared in AAA before getting their first regular major league jobs, while Jon Garland, Jim Parque, Josh Fogg and Jon Rauch combined for less than 300 innings at AAA. Why they decided on this tact is still a mystery, but it is probably time to scrap the experiment. I mean, when your success rate is 1 in 12, it's time to try something else. Wright was plagued by a elbow and knee problems last year that contributed to his lost season. Wright has all but scrapped his riding mid-90s fastball in favor of a low-90s two-seem fastball and a knuckle-curve ' pitches that are stressed by the Sox. Many in and around the organization think that he's best suited to a relief role, a factor that led the rumor mill to include Wright in the ill-fated Nomar/Ordonez swap.

Scott Schoeneweis (2003: Bartolo Colon)

During the five and a half years that Keith Foulke pitched for the White Sox, he always mentioned his desire to be a starter but never pushed the issue. "You can't be a starter," the Sox told him, "you only have two pitches." Then three months after Foulke was shipped out because he wasn't a reliable closer (unlike Billy Koch), the Sox acquired Scott Schoeneweis. And immediately the Sox said that they would be happy to cater to Schoeneweis's wishes and make him a starter in 2004. According to Kenny Williams, "He shows us three quality pitches: the cut fastball, the breaking ball and a solid change," so they could envision him as a starter. Apparently, the Sox scouts have some sort of super human sight that can see things that aren't really there. Sure, Schoeneweis has a cutter and a good sinker but a solid change? He has no change at all. And because of it, right-handers have tattooed him (.296/.366/.457) over the years and he has been a lousy starter (5.18 ERA from 2001-2003). Can he be better this year? Yes. He's been in the league for three full years and he's in the prime age for a pitcher, both of which are good indicators of a break out. It's just too bad that they never found out whether Foulke could have been a starter too.

BULLPEN

Marte can be as unhittable as any left-hander in the majors. He gets a bad rap because he allegedly hasn't been able to close games yet. But he was successful in 24 of 26 hold/save opportunities in 2002 and all seven of his 2003 blown saves came before the Fourth of July (after he was 14 for 14 in hold/save situations). Marte is clearly wasted as a lefty setup man and should get the lion-share of ChiSox saves this year.

The best trait of the Sox organization is their optimism. They really believe that their sometimes-goofy ideas will succeed. To dredge up more JFK: Some teams looked at a 33-year old Chris Sabo in 1995 and said "Why? but the Sox asked, "why not" . . . be our regular DH? It's that kind of indifference to being a laughingstock that allows the Sox to occasionally strike it rich with a player like Kelly Wunsch. Injuries took their toll on his body in 2001 and 2003 but if he arm does not literally fly off his body (picture a Farrelly Brother film about Dave Dravecky) then there is no reason to believe that the 31-year old Wunsch will not continue to throw 50 games and 35 innings until 2015.

Politte was the Sox best off-season acquisition. **Please insert punchline here** But seriously folks! Politte was a good signing. There's some question about his health and why his velocity dipped after a strong beginning to 2003. That said, Politte is a good bet to reclaim his role as one of the league's better setup men this season.

Others

Jon Rauch is still very tall. He's also coming of a decent season at AAA, given that A) Charlotte is a horrible place for a right-handed fly-ball pitcher B) his bullpen allowed a ton of his runners to score and C) he had corrective surgery on his shoulder a year ago. My tendency here is usually go big picture and point out that Randy Johnson was awful at age-25 and didn't really become The Big Unit until he was 29. And while that might be true, if Rauch doesn't show some significant promise soon he may wake up one day and find out that he's become the next Jeff Juden instead of the next Randy Johnson. Jason Grilli. a Rule 5 selection from Florida, was in the running for the fifth starter position. A strong spring by a healthy Danny Wright coupled with a three-inning spring outing in which he gave up fourteen hits and nine runs pretty much ended that possibility. He is still likely to make the team as a middle reliever, as the Sox would like to keep him. It's possible that he can still help a team, since he's still just 27 and a full year recovered from Tommy John surgery. Still, Matt Ginter is a year younger than Grilli and a much better pitcher at this point. The Sox, however, seem to have no interest in his future. It's kind of weird when you consider that he's better than not only Grilli but he's also at least as good as any other right-hander in the Sox bullpen at this point. And that includes Mike Jackson, the Amazing Slider-Man, whom the Sox brought in fresh off a coaching job in which he skippered his son's little league team. Jackson will win a spot in the bullpen. Kenny Williams invited Vic Darensbourg to camp as more of a courtesy than anything else. So long as Wunsch stays healthy and Schoeneweis gets people out as a starter, Darensbourg will remain in Charlotte. I still think that carrying twelve pitchers is idiotic, but at least the Sox haven't gone completely LaRussa and insisted upon three or more lefties in the pen. Jon Adkins will continue to reap the benefits of being the guy that was traded straight up for Ray Durham. That "distinction" might give him a bullpen spot if Takatsu continues to struggle.

WHAT CAN KEEP THEM FROM WINNING THE DIVISION IN 2004?

Jeepers, tons of things! Their bench is atrocious and won't get better without a big contribution from Borchard or Reed. Their starting staff solid from #1-#3, but is lacking an ace (no offense, Esteban) or innings eater. The bullpen is really just a three-man show (Marte, Politte and Wunsch) but could improve a good bit if Schoeneweis falters in the rotation. Even their lineup has its warts (all right-handed, lacking in OBP). But, of course, this is the A.L. Central, where the best teams are mediocre and 86 wins will likely win the division. Chicago's management is betting that Ozzie Guillen will create an atmosphere in which their team will thrive. And maybe they are right. Oz Fever, catch it!

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Ordonez            rf  .315  .384  .553  160  609   99  192  48   2  31  115   62   73  10   6 
Thomas             dh  .250  .375  .519  146  516   74  129  37   0  34  102   93  109   1   0 
Lee                lf  .284  .348  .489  155  595   91  169  34   2  28  101   52   86  13   5 
Konerko            1b  .279  .346  .465  149  538   70  150  28   0  24   88   50   67   0   0 
Crede              3b  .280  .331  .479  150  560   76  157  31   1  26   93   37   87   1   2 
Reed*              cf  .302  .366  .419  128  434   65  131  23   2   8   53   40   43  29  13 
Gload*             lf  .287  .328  .466  137  494   67  142  32   4  16   71   25   71   5   4 
Rowand             cf  .284  .325  .431  108  232   33   66  11   1   7   32   12   37   1   1 
Valentin#          ss  .236  .313  .467  136  475   69  112  31   2  25   79   49  108   6   4 
Burke              c   .289  .332  .392   89  311   43   90  12   1   6   36   17   40   1   1 
Rivera             c   .257  .317  .431  101  369   44   95  17   1  15   55   29   88   0   2 
Olivo              c   .275  .337  .400  107  345   45   95  19   3   6   38   29   78  10   8 
Smith              3b  .255  .320  .407  111  420   53  107  30   2  10   52   36   85   4   3 
Rolison*           1b  .239  .315  .409  109  394   51   94  17   1  16   56   41  125   0   1 
Borchard#          cf  .249  .308  .410  131  490   68  122  23   1  18   68   38  137   1   4 
Uribe              ss  .257  .298  .403  131  491   58  126  21   9  11   51   25   97  11   3 
Harris*            cf  .256  .319  .351  124  407   56  104  14   2   7   41   35   66  23  10 
Alomar             c   .245  .269  .359   77  220   20   54  13   0   4   24    6   24   0   0 
Dransfeldt         ss  .219  .281  .340  125  456   53  100  25   3   8   45   35  115   4   4 
Bell               3b  .228  .269  .349  100  355   42   81  20   1   7   38   17   62   1   2 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Marte*               3.05   3   1  63   0    65.0   48   22   4   25   77 
Loaiza               3.66  14  11  32  31   199.0  187   81  20   46  151 
Buehrle*             3.92  14  14  34  34   225.0  225   98  21   55  134 
Politte              4.18   3   3  56   0    56.0   52   26   7   20   51 
Majewski             4.18   4   4  49   1    71.0   62   33   4   37   58 
Santiago             4.35   5   5  59   2    91.0   98   44   7   30   40 
Ginter               4.36   2   3  44   0    64.0   62   31   5   27   41 
Koch                 4.50   5   6  71   0    74.0   65   37   8   37   68 
Pacheco              4.75   6   6  35  18   125.0  125   66  10   66   80 
Sanders*             4.75   2   2  43   0    53.0   50   28   7   24   44 
Grilli               4.77   4   4  12  12    66.0   67   35   8   25   39 
Darensbourg*         4.79   2   2  46   0    47.0   49   25   6   17   30 
Wunsch*              4.80   1   1  43   0    30.0   26   16   2   20   26 
Diaz                 4.81   4   6  24  18   103.0  105   55  14   38   67 
Schoeneweis*         4.85   5   9  45  19   143.0  149   77  18   55   81 
Garland              4.86  10  15  32  32   185.0  189  100  24   74  115 
Cotts*               4.90   7   9  26  26   125.0  100   68   7  101  126 
Munoz*               5.02   3   4  50   0    61.0   55   34   9   34   58 
Adkins               5.02   5   9  27  23   129.0  138   72  18   48   68 
Takatsu              5.02   2   2  46   0    43.0   47   24   7   14   27 
Wright               5.18   6  12  28  26   146.0  150   84  24   59  101 
Jackson              5.25   3   3  62   0    60.0   68   35  11   18   33 
Rauch                5.34   4   8  22  21   113.0  118   67  21   44   79 
Person               5.47   7   8  26  25   148.0  160   90  25   59  107 
Kohlmeier            5.60   3   4  34  11    90.0  102   56  23   20   58 
Malone*              5.97   4  10  18  18    95.0   92   63   7   81   59 
Stewart*             6.12   5  10  23  23   125.0  143   85  21   70   63