— BTF's Preseason Previews
Thursday, March 11, 2004
Texas Rangers
THE TEXAS RANGERS AND THE DEVIL’S THEORY OF PARK EFFECTS
The Rangers suffer from the same affliction that seized the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox for many years. Yes, at one time all three were owned by pampered, sometimes simpleminded, sons’ of millionaires, but that’s not what I’m getting at. They each played in a strong hitters’ park that severely warped how the team was viewed. Bill James once wrote that we need to start with two premises when dealing with parks like The Ballpark at Arlington, or like Wrigley and Fenway used to be: one, these parks distort the records of their players, which is generally known but universally underestimated, and two, teams that play in these parks pay for believing everything which is not true. "Park illusions," James elaborated several years later, "create unequal and misplaced pressures upon teams and players, which in the long run yield results which are precisely opposed to the characteristics of the park." A team like the Rangers, which plays in a great hitters’ park, will always score runs no matter how good their offense is. So, over a period of years they will not address their offensive needs, allowing their offense to slip into mediocrity. Conversely, their mediocre pitchers, who might put up league average ERA in another park will tend to have an ERA in the 5.00s in Arlington and will quickly be replaced. It is the Devil’s Theory of Park Effects. Twenty-five years later, all of the points still remain basically true.
The conventional wisdom about the Rangers, even among stat-friendly analysts, indicates that we haven’t come very far in the last quarter century. The Rangers were fifth in the league in runs scored in 2003, better than two playoff teams. However, their pitching was dreadful – dead last and a quarter of a run worse than the next worst staff. Ask any sportswriter, babbling SportsRadio pundit or bantering head on SportsTV and they’ll tell you that the Rangers can’t win because they have no pitching. Which is true, but only to an extent. The Rangers can’t win because they can’t pitch AND they can’t hit. In 2003 Rangers hit .246/.316/.405 on the road; in 2002, .254/.319/.416. That, my friends, is a bad offense, thirteenth in the AL in runs scored on the road in 2003 and better than only Detroit’s. These Rangers are the worst hitting team that the Metroplex has seen since a 1988 squad that featured such luminaries as Cecil Espy, Curtis Wilkerson and Oddibe McDowell.
In the last couple of years, the Rangers have had three very good regulars (Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez), but the point about the Ballpark at Arlington has almost nothing to do with Alex Rodriguez. To paraphrase Bill James, giving the Ballpark at Arlington to Alex Rodriguez is like arming Superman with a set of brass knuckles. Instead, the point has everything to do with players like Shane Spencer (.176/.300/.255 on the road in 2003), Juan Gonzalez (.257/.307/.379 on the road in 2002) and Andres Galarraga (.221/.296/.377 in 2001 road games). The Ballpark at Arlington masks some really bad older players and allows them to muck up an offense for years. But worse for a team is the effect that a park like Arlington’s has on the evaluation of young players. Here’s an example. Michael Young may or may not end up being a good player, but the Rangers seem to think that he will and are talking about giving him a five-year contract extension. Why? On the surface he seems like a nice player. After all, he hit .303 with 14 homers last year. Unfortunately, those numbers are mostly an illusion, a refraction of his real talent viewed through the distorting prism of a offense-oriented home park. In his three big league seasons, Young has hit .227/.263/.345, .245/.287/.359 and .262/.291/.367. Not that those are bad numbers for a middle infielder . . . if your first name is Rey! . . . but is this the guy that you lock up so that you cab avoid arbitration? Hank Blalock hit below .190 on the road in 2002 and .262/.301/.435 while away in 2003. Last year Teixeira hit .217/.303/.343 on the road; Laynce Nix, .189/.223/.300. See? This park makes things very confusing. Everyone you know thinks that Teixeira and Blalock are can’t miss guys, but their road numbers are butt-awful. So, which is it? How good are these guys? And the pitching would be equally as confusing if the Rangers had any major league capable starters right now. Doug Davis, for example, is no great shakes but he sure was a lot worse in the Rangers’ home white that in their road gray. From 2001-2003, Davis posted a 4.18 road ERA in 209 road innings. Now there might be a lot of noise in those numbers and the Rangers might have been swayed by other things, but I can’t picture another team releasing a 27-year old lefthander while he was sporting a career 4.18 ERA.
Seventy years ago, Branch Rickey ran the Cardinals, a team facing these same dilemmas. His solution to the Devil’s Theory was to construct a continuous pipeline of young talent and then create roster spots for them by trading off his existing regulars to teams that didn’t realize that Sportsmans’ Park distorted offensive players’ stats. Can the Rangers break this cycle also? That still remains to be seen, but they have taken some steps in the right direction this off-season.
WHAT WENT WRONG IN 2003
In 2003, the Rangers’ bills came due. In the winter of 2000-2001, the Rangers signed Alex Rodriguez but were faced with a horrible farm system, at least at its upper levels. So, Texas tried to tide themselves over by signing a bunch of "proven vets" who might be able to help them win something while they waited for their very green talent to ripen. So began a disastrous three-year period. Both the vets that they acquired and the ones that they already had either A) performed badly, B) got hurt, or C) both. The Rangers trundled along playing .500 ball through the first month or two of 2003 before staggering through a miserable 7-20 June that essentially ended their season.
Nearly all aspects of the team were responsible for the bad year. Except for Rodriguez, Gonzalez and Everett, the entire team was inept on the road. The Rangers bench players (Thames, Sadler, Christenson, Jason Jones) were just execrable. And then there was the pitching. The Rangers had six players who threw more than 46 innings yet still recorded ERAs of more than 6.00. Closer Francisco Cordero blew 10 save opportunities.
WHAT WENT RIGHT IN 2003
The best thing to happen in 2003 was a horrible June record that acted like a catharsis for the Rangers, who quickly expelled Carl Everett, Doug Glanville, Ruben Sierra and Ugueth Urbina and unsuccessfully tried to discharge Juan Gonzalez and Rafael Palmeiro. The trades of Everett and Urbina brought significant talent into a lagging minor league system. By August (the team’s best month), Texas was playing rookies Ramon Nivar, Mark Teixeira and Laynce Nix regularly and then worked rookie catcher Gerald Laird into the September lineup. Those four could serve as the core of the next good Rangers team.
Overall, Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock had breakout years, although their evaluations should be tempered by the realization that most of their production came in their cozy home field. Infielder Michael Young hit .300 and smacked 14 homers, including nine in the second half. Kevin Mench clubbed the ball everywhere he went in June and July before breaking his wrist and missing the rest of the season. As for what went right with the pitching? Uh. . . . well, no member of the staff committed a felony during the season. That’s something.
OFF-SEASON PLAYER MOVEMENT
- Signed C Rod Barajas (minor league), IF Andy Fox (minor league), IF Eric Young, OF Jason Tyner, OF Brian Jordan, Of David Dellucci, DH Brad Fullmer, P Kenny Rogers, P Glendon Rusch (minor league), P Jeff Nelson.
- Traded for IF Alfonso Soriano and P Jose Garcia.
- Lost C Todd Greene, OF Shane Spencer, OF Juan Gonzalez, DH Rafael Palmeiro, P Mario Ramos, P John Thomson, Ismael Valdes, P Victor Santos, P Aaron Fultz, P C. J. Nitkowski and P Renaldo Garcia to free agency or waivers.
- Traded 3B Mike Lamb and SS Alex Rodriguez.
Taken as a whole, this off-season shows that the Rangers have finally cut the cord on their failed strategies of 2001-2003. Every pundit who could spell "albatross" has pointed out that the Rangers needed to move ARod’s salary, a dubious notion that the Rangers bought into. And, there are rumors afloat that Texas is trying to spin Soriano off for even more prime young talent (maybe Scott Kasmir from the Mets), seemingly backing up the cost-cutting motivation. However, moving Soriano for young talent would fit well into the Rangers’ 2003-2004 moves. For more than just economic reasons, they’ve let their older players walk away, opening lineup spots for those in need of on-the-job training. But should their youngsters need more seasoning, Texas has brought in a gaggle of old vets for the bargain basement average price of just $1.5 million a year. Further, five of the six were signed to only one-year contracts.
MINOR LEAGUERS
Ranger fans are fortunate to have one of the best websites around to cover their minor league system. Authored by the impossibly good looking Jamey Newberg, the Newberg Report and it supplemental bound print edition are a treasure of information. Check them out.
The Rangers took several important steps last year to replenish an already thin farm system, further depleted by major league promotions. Here’s the best of what they have now, in the order of when they are likely to reach the majors.
C Gerald Laird
Laird was part of the booty that Grady Fuson brought over from the A’s for Carlos Pena. Fuson, who drafted Laird for the A’s, envisioned him as simply a catch-and-throw guy, but his 2002 breakout season in AA changed expectations. He is now projected as a .280 hitter with 20 homer power, but his defense remains very solid. He threw out 39 percent of AAA base stealers last year and then four of the seven big leaguers that ran on him in a late-season audition. In the Olympic qualifying tournament this past off-season, Laird got the start in the deciding game over Twins’ uberprospect Joe Mauer.
CF Ramon Nivar
Formerly Ramon Martinez, Nivar, 24, is a prototypical 1970s-era player, he swings at everything and can run like the wind (3.9 down the line). Moved from 2B at midseason, Nivar had a terrific year at AA Frisco (.347/.387/.464) and then maintained his production at AAA Oklahoma (.337/.368/.472). He has yet to learn how to steal effectively. After stealing 57 bases (in 90 tries) in 2001-2002, he was reined in 2003, going just 19 for 31 on the season.
1B Adrian Gonzalez
Part of the payment for Ugueth Urbina, Gonzalez is the latest in line of the next-Mark Grace candidates (who was the next-Keith Hernandez who was the next Vic Power who was the next Mickey Vernon . . .). Gonzalez played well enough for AA Carolina to prompt a promotion, but he subsequently struggled at Albuquerque and then at AA Frisco after the trade. Still, he’s only 21 and already a gold glove caliber defender. He’s projected to have above average power eventually, but has yet to manifest it. A promotion to Texas would likely push Mark Teixeira to right field.
RHP Juan Dominguez
The Rangers hustled the 23-year old Dominguez through three levels and into the majors last year. Relying on a low-90ish fastball with movement and a tremendous downward changeup, Dominguez dominated minor league hitters, posting a 140/40 K/BB ration in 136 innings. The Rangers are concerned unnecessarily about his lack of a slider. He’ll start the year at AAA Oklahoma and might need a year to solidify his gains.
2B Jason Bourgeois
Frequently compared to Ray Durham (read: black, short and has speed), Bourgeois will team with Meyer around Frisco’s keystone to start the year. Bourgeois, 21, had a great year at HiA Stockton last year – hitting for average and power (29 XBHs in 277 ABs), drawing walks and stealing bases. He struggled a good bit in the second half at Frisco, but some of this may have been due to a bruised hand. ETA: late-2005.
SS/CF Drew Meyer
The 22-year old Meyer has been stamped with the "hard nosed gamer" tag (read: white, short and has speed). He had a strong year in 2003, learning to be more selective as the season progressed, but he needs to cut back on his strikeouts (115 in 496 at bats). Look for Meyer to develop some power as he learns the leagues. He had 30 extra base hits in 400 HiA at bats last year after struggling a bit there in 2002. ETA: 2006.
LHP John Danks
Just 18, Danks is an unusual pick for scouting director Grady Fuson who generally prefers college pitchers (Beane’s Jeremy Bonderman hissy-fit notwithstanding). He’s a long way off (ETA 2007) but scouts always love left handed pitchers who have solid mechanics and can throw in the 90s.
PLAYERS
C Einar Diaz (2003: Diaz/Todd Greene)
The Rangers have two backup catchers and one starting catcher in camp this spring. Unfortunately, they will probably break camp with the two backup catchers on their roster and the capable starting catcher in AAA. Diaz began his career as a poor man’s Ivan Rodriguez, but has devolved into a poor man’s Ron Karkovice. He remains a solid defensive catcher but that is hardly enough. Rod Barajas is likely to backup Diaz. Barajas is a very good catch-and-throw guy, but a worse offensive player than even Diaz. A really poor man’s Ron Karkovice, if you will. It’s likely that Gerald Laird will get every opportunity to take win the job as the season progresses, but not out of spring training. I’m a rather baffled by Showalter’s decision here, Laird has had good seasons at both AA and AAA, he’s a good defensive catcher and he certainly is a much better hitter than anyone that the Rangers’ have. But, this is the same manager that sent Bernie Williams back to Columbus in 1992 in order to play the rotting carcass of Mel Hall in the outfield, so Laird will likely begin the year in Oklahoma.
1B Mark Teixeira (2003: Teixeira/Rafael Palmeiro)
Teixeira spent last season beating the odds. This time last year Teixeira’s resume included a boffo college career, but less than 200 professional at bats and none above the AA level. Texas already had a third baseman, a first baseman, a designated hitter and little room in the outfield. Plus, conventional wisdom dictates that young players should go back to the minors so that they can get "regular playing time." Teixeira flouted these truisms and made the big leagues out of camp by hitting .322 with nine doubles and seven homers in 90 spring at bats. He even remained in the majors after suffering through a horribly unlucky April in which he hit .188/.288/344, thanks to an atrocious 20% hit rate. He justified the faith in him though by posting three really strong months (850+ OPS) in the next five and was surprisingly good in the field, showing nice range and a strong arm. Teixeira is also flexible enough to move to one of the corner outfield spots later in the year if slick fielding prospect Adrian Gonzalez is ready to play.
2B Alfonso Soriano (2003: Michael Young)
Soriano is a very good offensive player. Sure we’d all like players to draw 80 walks a year, but history is replete with excellent players who swung at nearly everything thrown in their general direction. And it says something pretty special about Soriano that you could take his last two years, stick them in the middle of the careers of Orlando Cepeda or Roberto Clemente or Rico Carty, and you’d never know the difference. If he were still 26 you could feel fairly certain that he’d make a run at the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, he’s suddenly 28 and he still can’t field a lick. If he proves unable to make the transition to the outfield in the next couple years, he has no chance at lasting fame. Think the Rangers wish that Alfonso had just kept his real age a secret a little longer? I mean, just until they could convince the Mets to part with a primo prospect.
3B Hank Blalock
Despite my earlier cautions, I’m fairly certain that Blalock is going to be a star. With some merit, he’s frequently compared to George Brett. In fact, the Brett/Blalock comparison demonstrates a good point about the ham-handed direction that we all have taken with regards to park effects. If you look at the age-22 seasons of both Brett and Blalock, you will be struck by how superficially similar they are (both hit .about .305 with a .350 OBP). Thanks to a lower run environment and playing in a pitchers’ park, Brett posts a 125 OPS+ to Blalock’s 118, even though Blalock out-slugged Brett by 65 points. Makes sense, right? Wrong. Thanks to Retrosheet, we now have the evidence to see that Brett benefited tremendously by playing in spacious Royals Stadium. Sure, he hit many fewer homers in KC, but he usually made up for that with 15 extra singles, 10 extra doubles and 10 more triples. When he was 22, Brett hit .255/.306/.397 on the road, eerily similar to Blalock’s .262/.301/.435 on the road last year. All hail George Brett II!
SS Michael Young (2003: Alex Rodriguez)
Young posted his best year in the majors in 2003, thanks to a fortunate 35% hit rate in the first half of the season. As mentioned before, his phenomenal home numbers (.353/.390/.529) create the illusion that he is a much better player than he actually is. In reality, he’s something akin to Scott Fletcher or Pat Kelly (the former Yankee infielder not the former White Sox outfielder) which is okay, I guess, given that Young’s coming into his prime years right now. Young is routinely described as a gold glove caliber second baseman who can’t get the hardware because . . . and I’m not making this up . . . Bret Boone is in the league. Our limited indicators suggest that Young should be able to handle the transition to SS adequately -- in 42 career innings at SS, he has a 1.000 ZR.
LF Kevin Mench (2003: Shane Spencer/Mench/Carl Everett)
Mench began the season on the DL and was then optioned for the month of May, despite a couple of decent weeks in April. He returned in May and played regularly, hitting .320, from June 10th until July 8th when a Juan Rincon pitch broke his wrist and ended his season. There are rumblings of concern about Mench for two reasons, both of which are mostly unfounded. First, Mench hit only two homers last year (and none in September 2002) so some are questioning his power. They shouldn’t. He hit 12 doubles in just 125 at bats last year and there is plenty of evidence to suggest two baggers one year can easily become round trippers the next. Astute rotoheads already know that Mench is as a good a sleeper as you’ll find.
CF Laynce Nix (2003: Ryan Christenson/Doug Glanville/Ramon Nivar)
If it is, as Dan Werr astutely pointed out last year, that "being a third baseman in the Texas system right now is like being a guitarist in the Yardbirds" then being a Rangers’ centerfielder has been like being the drummer for Spinal Tap. You have to go all the way back to the mid-1980s to find the last Rangers center fielder that started the majority of his teams games for three consecutive years (the aforementioned Oddibe McDowell). The Rangers have never had a star centerfielder. Heck, they’ve never had a single all-star centerfielder in the 40+ year history of the Senators II/Rangers franchise! There is a possibility that Laynce Nix will be the first. If he’d batted 55 fewer times in the big leagues last year, the 23-year old Nix would have been the number one prospect in the Rangers system. As it was, he was rushed from AA Frisco (where he hit .284/.344/.487) after the Everett trade, but still showed some promise. A lefty, he had the usual young player problems with left handed pitching (.150/.227/.300 in 20 ABs) and with the strike zone (9/53 BB/K ratio). But Nix drew 34 walks in half a AA season and 72 walks in Hi-A Charlotte in 2002, so he has the potential to grow out of his hack-happy ways. There is talk that he may not be able to handle the defensive chores of center field but his ZR there last year was the best in the league (among players with at least 20 games in CF).
RF Brian Jordan (2003: Juan Gonzalez/Nix/Carl Everett/Marcus Thames)
Jordan shows all the signs of nearing the end of the road. Like many veteran players, Jordan’s 2003 looks like a player who is trying to overcome his lagging skills by focusing on the things that he can still do well. He now can’t hit RHers at all, but he still worked over lefties. And his walk rate took a supernatural spike last year, an indication of an older player trying to find a pitch that he can handle. Further, Jordan’s season ended in June with knee surgery; the third season in the last four in which he populated the DL. If 2004 isn’t the end of the road for Jordan, then it ain’t but another 100 yards further. On the plus side, he is the greatest former-Falcons defensive back ever to play in the big leagues. And a class act.
DH Brad Fullmer (2003: Palmeiro/Gonzalez/Ruben Sierra)
Like Jordan, Fullmer is returning from a season-ending knee injury in June and subsequent surgery. And, like Jordan, his walk rate spiked in 2003. But Fullmer is still just 29 and has the potential to put up some significant numbers this year, if his knee is healthy. He even fared well against lefties last year. I’ve got to admit, I root for this guy. It was his bad luck to work his tail off for five seasons and then post his best season while helping his team to a World Series victory only to watch the owners jointly discover fiscal sanity. After posting a 136 OPS+ in 2002, he found himself non-tendered and then humbled by a 75% cut in his pay. Undaunted, he went out in 2003 and was having an even better year, only to be laid low by a torn patella tendon. So, he’s coming off the two best of his career and is still making $1 million a year. Here’s hoping that he pulls a Darrell Evans and is still cranking away 10 years from now.
BENCH
David Dellucci
Eric Young
Manny Alexander
Herbert Perry
Rod Barajas
Jason Tyner
Jason Jones
You’ll see most of these guys at one time or another this year. Given that Jordan is unlikely to play 100 games and that Nix will have some problems with lefties, the Rangers will need at least six outfielders this season. Frankie Frisch allegedly once said that you only need to have good year out of every five in order to have a long career, because someone will always think that you can do it again. David Dellucci is the living embodiment of Frisch’s Law. In six years and 1400 plate appearances, he has posted one nice fraction of a season in 1999 and then an adequate part-time season in 2001, yet here he is again. The Rangers have two Jasons (Tyner and Jones) who are just as good or better than Dellucci is now and in a perfect world would get the bulk of his at bats. Speaking of Frisch’s Law, the Rangers invited Eric Young to camp to serve as a backup second baseman and center fielder. Young has never been as good as supposed, but he can still run and gives a team some flexibility. Perry has the best nickname in baseball right now. Dubbed "The Milkman" in 2000 by Hawk Harrelson because he delivers everyday, Perry’s family actually owns a dairy farm. In the last year of his contract, Perry is now just a hobbled pinch hitter and occasional sub for Blalock against tough lefties. The Rangers will need someone who can backup at SS though so Manny Alexander is around.
ROTATION
Kenny Rogers
Rogers enters the season in the #3 spot on the Rangers all-time wins list with 101. He’ll surely move past Bobby Witt this year, but is still a long shot to catch Rough Tough Charlie Hough at 139 wins. His 109 ERA+ is second to Hough, with pitchers who have thrown 1000 innings for Texas. There is no reason to think that Rogers will suddenly lose it this season. That he is the Rangers duly authorized "ace" says everything about this staff.
Colby Lewis
Colby Lewis was granted 26 starts and 127 innings in 2003 but posted a 7.30 ERA. And that was NOT a park illusion; his road ERA was 7.78. Lewis has a tremendous moving fastball and a wicked curve, neither of which can he control at this moment. He has succeeded at every minor league level (usually with decent BB/K ratios) so he needs to be given time to learn how to pitch in the majors. Remember, in his first 185 big league innings Greg Maddux walked 85 batters, gave up 20 homers and posted an ERA+ of 75.
R. A. Dickey
A devout Christian who has said that he considers his pitching to be a form of worship, Dickey could be a poster child for the power of faith and hard work. Born without a ligament in his right elbow, Dickey has still built up his fastball so that it touches the low 90s. His real weapon though is his "Thing." That’s what he calls his funky knuckle-curver/splitter, that can move laterally like a slider. Dickey is a smart pitcher, a good fielder and is admired by his teammates and manager. Plus, he has an outside chance to create a similar career to another reliever-turned-starter who got a late start, Woody Williams.
Ricardo Rodriguez
I am thoroughly unimpressed with Rodriguez, a 26-year old Dominican who came to Texas with Shane Spencer for outfield prospect Ryan Ludwick. His last good year was in 2001 as a 23-year old in Hi-A ball. Since then he has struggled with his location and lost his ability to get strikeouts. Of course he could still develop, but the road to stardom is littered with the short careers of starters who have straight 92 MPH fastballs.
Joaquin Benoit
It’s very early in the spring, but the signs are pointing toward the Rangers making the wrong decision here. Nine months older than countryman Ricardo Rodriguez, Benoit gives all the indications of much more talent. Unlike Rodriguez, Benoit struggles mightily with the strike zone but he has continued to hold his strong strikeout rate right into the majors. Further, despite a tateriffic performance last year, he has improved at the major league level – increasing his K rate while dramatically improving his K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, Benoit is out of options this spring and the Rangers don’t feel the same pressure to keep him, as they might if they had just traded a power hitting outfield prospect for him last year. Last season, the Rangers released Danny Kolb in March and Doug Davis in April, so cross your fingers that that they don’t make the same mistake this year with Benoit.
Ryan Drese
If you believe in DiPs, Drese should not be cast away just yet. While his last two years have been a disaster of nearly Biblical proportions (dogs and cats sleeping together . . . mass hysteria!), some of that can be attributed to extreme bad luck. Sure Drese lost nearly any notion of the strikezone in 2002-2003, but still he suffered unduly from ancrazy high hit rate (35% and 38%) in those two years, while his relievers allowed a ton of his runners to score. If he makes the staff and the Rangers bullpen improves, his numbers could improve significantly. Neither of the first two caveats seem very likely though and at 28 his time is running short.
Glendon Rusch
Still just 29 years old, Rusch is coming off an apparently atrocious season. However, if you look closely there are several valuables scattered among debris from the trainwreck that was his 2003 season. Rusch pitched very well in the month of July before going on the DL with a groin injury. When he returned the Brewers left him in the pen, where he again pitched very well, posting a 2.35 ERA while striking out sixteen and walking just four in 21 innings. His 37% hit rate and horrible bullpen support are indicators that he can still pitch.
Chan Ho Park
Allegedly, Chan Ho Park is finally healthy this season after suffering through hamstring and back woes the last two years and he has pitched well thus far in the spring. He is owed $39 million over the next three seasons, so he certain to make the team in some capacity. Back woes are bad news, but there is still chance that Park can deliver on some of the Rangers exorbitant investment. Even so, he was never Curt Schilling before his recent woes so there is no reason to think that he will ever become a top-of-the-rotation guy again.
BULLPEN
Closer Francisco Cordero
Cordero is one of those guys that can throw a snowball through a blast furnace – a serious stud. Despite saving 10 games in 11 chances in 2002, Cordero was replaced by Urbina to begin the 2003 season. He picked up 17 holds in the first half and then 13 saves after Urbina’s trade. He blew six saves in the first half during his setup stint, but has lost only 5 of 28 save opportunities as a closer over the last two seasons. Cordero is the last Rangers player from the huge 2000 trade that sent JuanGone to Detroit.
Jeff Zimmerman
The Rangers hope that Zimmerman can reclaim a bit of the lightning that made him a dominant reliever for a couple years around the turn of the millennium. Zimmerman has missed the last two seasons with Tommy John surgery, but entered spring training feeling strong and loose. He has experienced no pain over the last month or so, but he did get rocked by Milwaukee in his first spring appearance. When he was strong, righties simply could not hit him.
Jeff Nelson
Speaking of which, the Rangers brought in Jeff Nelson this winter. Nelson’s funky three-quarter delivery and his wicked slider is crippling to right handed batters. He will occasionally struggle from bouts of wildness and will suffer for them. He can have problems with lefties now too.
Brian Shouse
Out-Disneying Jim Morris, the 35-year old Shouse had a terrific first full year in 2003 as a prototypical LOOGY. He held lefties to a paltry .195/.230/.271, but got rocked by righties. Still, another year of dominating portside swingers and he could pitch until he’s 45.
Others
Jay Powell has suffered through a finger injury, a sinus infection, a gastrointestinal illness, a viral infection and vertigo problems over the last two years. And he struggled through a disastrous 2003 campaign. His fastball has lost a bit of his oomph, so Powell tried working in a sidearm delivery last year. In camp as a non-roster invitee, Doug Brocail has worked as hard as anyone to return to the big leagues. He has undergone two ligament transplants and is three years removed from his last big league game. Both he and Powell struggled badly in their first spring outings. Carlos Almanzar was a much sought after minor league free agent this past off-season, thanks to a fine year at AAA Louisville. He saved 23 games, posted a 3.50 ERA and tallied a 54/3 K/BB ration in 46 innings. Almanzar is all but certain to spend time with Texas this season. The Rangers will have to keep Rule 5 pick Chris Mabeus on their roster all season or offer him back to Oakland for a pittance. Having a breakout year, Mabeus struck out 70 batters while walking only 15 in 62 IP of HiA and AA ball in 2003.
HOW THEY CAN COMPETE
Okay, you’ve got me here. You’ve got to think that it will take a minimum of 88 wins, given their division. Let’s see, first they need their offense to come through. Soriano would need to remain; Blalock, Teixeira, Mench and Young would need to continue their developments. A last hurrah by Jordan and a continuation of Fullmer’s 2002-2003 gains would be helpful. A young player or two, maybe Laird and Nix, would need to break in with a bang. The pitching would have to write off their struggles in Texas and focus on road games. One of the Zimmerman/Powell/Almanzar trio would need to fill the setup role. And then several mishaps (if Oakland’s offense or Seattle’s pitching struggles, for example, or a Asian Flu outbreak) would have to befall at least two other teams in the AL West. There is an attitude in Texas though that "anything can happen." And if you look at recent World Series winners, they may be right.
NOT THAT ANYONE CARES BUT . . .
The Texas Rangers have something to say to the New York Yankees: "Don’t get too excited." To hear the pundits talk right after the ARod/Soriano trade, the 2004 Yankees are likely to be the greatest offensive team in the history of baseball. For example, Tim Kurkjian declared that the all-time record for runs scored (1,067 by the 1931 Yankees, nearly 200 more than the 2003 Yankees scored) was "in jeopardy." Funny thing is that the pundits said much the same thing after the Rangers acquired Rodriguez in the winter of 2000-2001. Before the 2001 season the Rangers replaced a SS who created about 55 runs with one who brought home about 150. They signed Ruben Sierra to DH and he clubbed 46 extra base hits in 94 games. They upgraded by 20 runs in left field Pudge Rodriguez played in 20 more games than the year before. Raffy Palmeiro hit .273/.381/.563. Rusty Greer and Randy Velarde were both very productive in limited roles. But, how many more runs did the 2001 Rangers score than the year before? 52. And Soriano ain’t no Royce Clayton.
2004 ZiPS Projections
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Soriano 2b .318 .361 .558 161 701 125 223 45 3 39 135 35 140 37 12 Blalock* 3b .315 .371 .516 144 556 92 175 31 3 25 95 47 99 3 2 Fullmer* dh .296 .365 .500 116 398 61 118 27 3 16 64 35 53 6 3 Teixeira# 1b .277 .357 .504 134 488 67 135 25 4 26 84 49 101 1 2 Mench lf .271 .346 .479 112 413 62 112 27 1 19 69 40 81 2 2 Zoccolillo* lf .268 .360 .440 103 473 64 127 31 1 16 68 64 90 3 5 Jordan lf .282 .339 .460 113 404 54 114 29 2 13 59 30 63 2 2 Jones# lf .271 .366 .415 134 484 65 131 34 0 12 64 67 94 4 6 Nix* rf .270 .332 .453 142 514 77 139 26 1 22 81 43 122 11 2 Young 2b .294 .342 .435 161 642 95 189 31 7 15 79 44 107 9 4 Meadows lf .277 .340 .452 105 383 58 106 25 3 12 58 33 71 8 7 Greer* lf .266 .340 .435 55 214 26 57 22 1 4 27 22 23 1 1 Gonzalez* 1b .276 .353 .397 123 468 62 129 21 3 10 55 51 76 4 1 Laird c .270 .348 .416 118 418 67 113 20 4 11 51 46 81 6 4 Perry 3b .259 .321 .464 113 371 47 96 29 1 15 58 28 58 2 2 Hart 1b .253 .332 .427 140 529 73 134 26 0 22 80 57 120 1 1 Allen lf .289 .325 .448 92 315 41 91 25 2 7 41 14 49 4 5 McDougall 3b .261 .333 .386 128 482 69 126 18 3 12 57 47 84 9 4 Dellucci* rf .241 .328 .379 99 224 27 54 12 2 5 24 26 55 6 2 Young 2b .260 .334 .385 136 493 72 128 34 2 8 55 49 39 24 14 Tyner* lf .291 .346 .340 128 477 63 139 15 4 0 37 36 44 19 9 Conti* cf .262 .309 .384 137 461 60 121 22 2 10 53 27 116 6 7 Diaz c .262 .309 .361 111 363 38 95 22 1 4 37 14 33 2 1 Nivar cf .283 .325 .355 129 498 74 141 16 4 4 45 28 46 18 14 Ardoin c .231 .294 .364 72 247 31 57 13 1 6 28 20 68 0 2 Huckaby c .261 .296 .336 96 318 30 83 15 0 3 31 12 53 1 1 Alexander ss .247 .293 .344 107 392 44 97 20 3 4 36 21 69 12 9 Newhan* 2b .231 .293 .319 67 229 35 53 12 1 2 20 18 45 4 3 Barajas c .214 .263 .330 71 182 15 39 12 0 3 19 10 34 0 0 Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Almanzar 3.43 3 1 39 0 42.0 41 16 3 7 33 Ramirez* 3.65 6 4 54 0 74.0 77 30 4 13 45 Nelson 3.86 4 2 62 0 56.0 44 24 4 30 71 Cordero 3.86 6 3 60 0 77.0 68 33 5 32 77 Shouse* 3.95 1 1 60 0 57.0 58 25 4 17 40 Wasdin 3.97 7 4 30 14 111.0 110 49 11 27 92 Zimmerman 4.37 4 4 66 0 70.0 65 34 9 24 73 Mabeus 4.38 3 3 43 1 72.0 71 35 5 30 56 Callaway 4.58 7 7 29 19 116.0 127 59 12 33 70 Garcia 4.62 5 4 59 1 74.0 80 38 4 31 40 Dickey 4.71 10 9 36 19 149.0 160 78 15 49 97 Mahay* 4.74 4 4 60 0 76.0 76 40 11 26 69 Williams 4.74 3 3 50 0 57.0 64 30 5 17 28 Bacsik* 4.80 5 8 30 24 148.0 163 79 21 40 85 Rusch* 4.86 10 10 33 29 161.0 176 87 23 50 121 Dominguez 4.88 5 6 28 21 129.0 133 70 15 52 100 Rogers* 4.94 9 10 31 30 186.0 215 102 21 57 101 Snare* 4.96 7 8 28 25 147.0 164 81 18 45 88 Park 4.98 9 10 28 28 168.0 169 93 20 77 142 Moreno 5.07 5 5 25 14 94.0 108 53 11 34 55 Powell 5.08 2 3 59 0 62.0 64 35 6 30 44 Drese 5.09 9 10 31 28 168.0 185 95 18 64 102 Rodriguez 5.19 7 9 21 21 118.0 136 68 15 37 63 Benoit 5.23 8 10 31 27 155.0 155 90 20 79 138 Murray* 5.28 5 9 30 24 138.0 149 81 18 68 82 Sylvester 5.43 2 3 57 0 58.0 54 35 6 42 57 Lewis 5.43 9 13 31 28 159.0 168 96 22 75 121 Hughes 5.71 5 8 34 20 123.0 131 78 15 71 87 Francisco 6.36 5 10 26 20 99.0 108 70 15 66 73ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player should temper what the computer says.