Minnesota Twins

2001 = 85-77 (.525 - 2nd in AL Central)
771 RS / 766 RA (.500 Pythagorean Win %)

2002 = 94-67 (.584 - 1st in AL Central)
768 RS / 712 RA (.534 Pythagorean Win %)

After almost a decade of consistent losing, the Minnesota Twins turned it around in 2001 and started the season by winning 14 of their first 17 games. They continued to play well through the all-star break and had a 55-32 record (second best in the AL) and a five game lead over the Indians in the AL Central. They started the second-half by losing 15 of their first 20 games and were in second place for good by the second week of August. After winning over 63% of their first-half games, the Twins won only 40% of their second-half contests, finishing at 85-77 - six games behind Cleveland.

The 2002 Twins were a completely different story. They didn’t start quite as hot at they did in 2001, sitting at 14-11 after 25 games - putting them a game back of Chicago in the AL Central. The Twins just continued to play consistent, if unspectacular baseball, throughout the first-half and had a 50-39 record and a 7.5 game lead over Chicago and 9.5 over Cleveland at the all-star break. A year after blowing their division lead a month into the second-half, the Twins started the 2002 second-half on fire, winning 19 of their first 23 games. At that point they had a massive 17 game lead over Chicago and the other three AL Central teams weren’t within 20 games. The Twins hit a rough patch in the middle of August, but it didn’t much matter with their lead. They finished 94-67 and won the division by 13.5 games over the White Sox.

The Twins upset the favored Oakland A’s in the ALDS before losing to the eventual World Champion Anaheim Angels 4-1 in the ALCS.

Minnesota’s offense was remarkably similar in both style and effectiveness during the last two years. They hit .272 in each season and their on-base % and slugging % were within a few points either way. Their homer totals were almost identical. They scored essentially the same amount of runs.

The main differences were 20 more doubles, 20 fewer walks and half as many steals (with a much worse SB%) in 2002.

While Jacque Jones and Torii Hunter had breakout seasons in 2002, a lot of the other Twins had down years offensively. Guys like Koskie, Mientkiewicz and Guzman were all considerably worse than they were in 2001. The Twins offense suffered a lot of injuries as well. Luis Rivas broke his forearm during the first week of the season and only played in 93 games; Doug Mientkiewicz had wrist problems for the majority of the year; Corey Koskie had at least four different injuries, went on the DL with a hamstring pull and just never seemed to be able to stay healthy; and Cristian Guzman had knee and shoulder problems throughout the season. The only completely healthy regulars for the Twins last year were Jacque Jones and A.J. Pierzynski.

The Minnesota offense ranked only ninth in the AL in runs last season, despite ranking fifth in batting average and fifth in slugging percentage. The reason? The Twins had only the eighth highest on-base % in the league and they made a tremendous amount of outs on the bases.

Their horrendous work stealing bases last year was painful to watch. Countless rallies and scoring opportunities were snuffed out by the Twins simply trying to advance one base and failing. It was particularly disturbing because of how well they did stealing bases in 2001.

Cristian Guzman stole 25 bases at a 75.7% clip in 2001 and then stole only 12 bases while being caught 13 times in 2002. Corey Koskie, never known for his speed, somehow managed to steal 27 bases while being caught only 6 times in 2001, but stole only 10 and was thrown out 11 times in 2002. Luis Rivas went 31/42 in steals in 2001, but only attempted 13 all of last season in 93 games. Jacque Jones stole six bases and was thrown out seven times last year.

After five different Twins stole at least 15 bases in 2001, all with at least a 70% success rate, only one Twin, Torii Hunter, did that in 2002 (he was 23/31).

Not stealing as many bases as the year before isn’t going to really hurt an offense that much and it isn’t what hurt the Twins in 2002. It is the combination of not stealing as many bases and being successful only 56% of the time that hurts. The obvious difference between 2001 and 2002 is, of course, that the Twins had a different manager directing the running game. It is something to keep an eye on in 2003.

While the running game was a huge weakness, Minnesota’s strength as an offense last season was their ability to hit for average and doubles, as well as their solid balance throughout the lineup.

Minnesota ranked fifth in the AL with a .272 batting average and tied with the Red Sox for the league lead in doubles, with 348.

The Twins lack that one big bopper that a lot of teams have, but they had a lot of "good" hitters last year. Of the 10 Twins that had 300+ plate appearances in 2002, eight of them finished with an OPS between .750 and 900. Guzman and Rivas were the only two with sub-.750 OPSs.

While the Minnesota offense stayed at about the same level as it was in 2001, the Twins pitching improved dramatically last season, slicing 50 runs off of their total from 2001. That improvement came almost entirely from the bullpen. Twins starters posted an ERA that was 0.08 lower than the starters in 2001, but they did so while pitching almost 10% fewer innings. The reason for the decreased workload for the starters was simple: Injuries (and lots of them).

In 2001, Minnesota got over 680 total innings from their top three starters - Brad Radke (226), Eric Milton (221) and Joe Mays (233). No one else on the 2001 staff pitched over 90 innings, but when you get 220+ innings from three different starters, you don’t need much else.

In 2002, all three of those 2001 workhorses went down with injuries.

Joe Mays made his first three starts of the season, pitching 12 innings with a 11.57 ERA, and then went down for two months with an elbow injury. When he returned he was nowhere near the pitcher he was in 2001 and ended the season with only 95 innings and a 5.38 ERA.

After pitching a complete game shutout (11 Ks and 0 BBs) against the White Sox on August 1st to raise his season record to 13-7, Eric Milton was warming up in the bullpen before his next start and heard something "pop" in his knee. He ended up needing knee surgery, missed a month of action and was very bad upon returning in September.

Brad Radke pulled a groin muscle during the third inning of his May 13th start against Kansas City. At the time, Ron Gardenhire said, "Hopefully, he’ll just miss one start." Well, turns out Gardenhire was close; Radke went on the DL, but missed just two turns in the rotation and came back on May 30th to start against Anaheim. He lasted exactly 12 pitches before re-aggravating the groin injury. Radke missed all of June and all of July, before coming back - for good this time - on August 3rd. He was able to take his turn in the rotation for the rest of the year, but ended up pitching a total of only 118 innings in 2002.

So, the big three gave them 681 innings in 2001 and 385 innings in 2002. Luckily for the Twins, the bullpen was phenomenal last year. Led by Eddie Guardado, J.C. Romero, LaTroy Hawkins and Tony Fiore, the Twins pen led the AL in innings pitched with 530 and posted a 3.68 ERA (good for fifth in the league).

Starters:

2001 = 4.46 ERA / 991 IP
2002 = 4.38 ERA / 914 IP

Relievers:

2001 = 4.62 ERA / 450 IP
2002 = 3.68 ERA / 530 IP

The Minnesota starting pitchers were essentially as effective at preventing runs in 2002 as they were in 2001, but the Twins were able to improve their team ERA by about 10% because their relievers improved their’s by almost a full run and were among the best bullpens in baseball.

Another noticeable difference from 2001 to 2002 was that an already fly ball oriented staff got even more fly ball dominated, going from a 0.98 ratio in 2001 to 0.90 last year. In addition to getting the ball up in the air more in 2002, the staff also struck out nearly 10% more batters, while keeping walks the same.

Striking more batters out is always a great idea and, if you must let someone put the ball in play, it is best to have them hit it in the air when your outfield defense is great and your middle-infield plays on turf and isn’t so special. In other words, I’ll take my chances with Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones chasing down balls in the gap anytime over Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas trying to flag down grounders up the gut.

Over the last few years, the Twins have assembled an ideal pitching staff for their ballpark and defense, whether by design or by accident, by focusing on pitchers with good walk rates that are fly ball pitchers, enabling them to take advantage of their excellent outfield defense. That is, at least until a few weeks ago (more on this in a moment).

The Minnesota Twins made very few moves in the off-season and the few they did make included such blockbuster acquisitions as Mike Fetters and Chris Gomez. In fact, arguably their most important move of the off-season was not acquiring anyone, but actually allowing David Ortiz to leave. In addition to saving them some money, that move was a definite effort to improve one of their major weaknesses: Their hitting against left-handed pitching:

vs. Righties = .282/.339/.449
vs. Lefties = .252/.318/.413

Their poor hitting against lefties was magnified because they faced the most left-handed pitching in the entire American League last season. The Twins got only 3,772 at bats against righties in 2002, whereas 12 of the other 13 AL teams had over 4,000 at bats against righties, with Tampa Bay leading the way with 4,354 ABs. On the flip side, the Twins faced lefties in 1,810 at bats, which was the most in the AL by over 10%.

So, gone is David Ortiz, their everyday DH last season. Ortiz, a left-handed batter, hit only .203/.256/.381 against lefties in 2002. In his place is Matthew LeCroy, a right-handed batter, who hit .289/.347/.522 against lefties last year with the Twins. Ortiz had shown himself to be a decent hitter against lefties in the past, but he struggled mightily against them in 2002. Additionally, by removing his left-handed bat from the lineup and replacing it with the right-handed LeCroy’s, the Twins suddenly become a great deal more balanced as far as lefty/righty lineup construction goes.

The lineup I have outlined below (which is the one the Twins will likely use) goes: Left, Switch, Right, Left, Right, Left, Right, Left, Right. What that means is putting an end to other teams bringing in a lefty reliever that is able to face Jones, Koskie and Ortiz - all appreciably worse against lefties - without having to face a couple of right-handed hitters too. I think it will also allow them to sustain longer rallies, something that was a problem last season.

Jacque Jones was inserted into the leadoff spot for the Twins in 2002 and had his best season, smacking 66 extra-base hits to go along with a .300 batting average (both career highs). That said, he is pretty miscast as a leadoff man and his skills could probably be better used in the middle of the lineup.

His biggest strengths as a hitter are his batting average and his extra-base power. Obviously, both of those skills are something you’d like to see in any hitter, but his power would probably be more valuable in a spot where he could hit with more men on base.

Additionally, one of his weaknesses as a hitter is his lack of plate discipline. Jones only had 35 non-intentional walks in 626 plate appearances last season and for his career he has only 110 in over 2,000 PAs. Ideally, a team would like to have a leadoff man with more of an ability to work counts, draw walks and get on base. Despite a .300 batting average from Jacque Jones, Minnesota leadoff men (which was almost entirely Jones) ranked only 8th in the AL in on-base %.

During the off-season, Ron Gardenhire talked about moving Jones down in the lineup in 2003, possibly to fifth or sixth. Then, about a week into spring training, he announced that Jones would be his leadoff man once again, saying "I like the way he swings it when he leads off."

Whether he hits first or fifth or sixth, Jacque Jones should not be in the lineup against left-handed pitching:

Against Righties:

1999 = .297/.342/.472
2000 = .294/.327/.490
2001 = .288/.349/.445
2002 = .333/.372/.580
CAREER = .303/.348/.499

Against Lefties:

1999 = .222/.231/.361
2000 = .230/.269/.297
2001 = .182/.224/.200
2002 = .213/.259/.331
CAREER = .212/.252/.305

At some point, the Twins simply have to give up on the idea of Jacque Jones as an everyday player. He’s a .200 hitter with very little power and almost zero plate discipline against lefties and no matter how much he and the organization talk about him wanting to improve and him "making strides," there has got to be some sign of improvement to warrant him staying in the lineup - and there simply isn’t.

Against righties, it’s a whole ‘nother story. Jacque is a .300 hitter with very good power - both home run and doubles - and his lack of discipline doesn’t hurt him as much because he can still get on base 35% of the time as a result of his outstanding batting average.

Defensively, Jones is one of the best left fielders in baseball, if not the best. He has incredible range and is best when he is charging in on shallow fly balls or making acrobatic catches up against the wall in foul territory. He is quite capable of playing an above-average CF and has done so in the past, although he won’t be doing that for the Twins anytime soon.

Ron Gardenhire has been Jones’ biggest supporter and when he got the job as manager one of the first things he did was name Jones the leadoff man and proclaim that he would start every day, something Tom Kelly often did not allow him to do. It was a nice gesture and Jones did have his best season yet. However, it didn’t work out as far as him improving against lefties goes, which was one of the main points of the whole exercise. Instead of continuing to let Jones stink up the joint against southpaws, the Twins would be best served to make him a platoon player, which would not only allow him to stop making outs against lefties, but would also create some additional playing time for one of the Twins’ many LF/RF/DH/1B types.

Projecting what Jones might do in 2003 is difficult because how much playing time he’ll get against lefties is unknown and is a major factor in his overall numbers. That said, he’s a very good bet to continue to hit righties very well and lefties very poorly, while providing great defense in left.

Cristian Guzman went from budding superstar to gigantic disappointment in the span of about six months. He hit .308/.346/.507 in the first-half of the 2001 season and made his first appearance in the all-star game. Immediately after coming back to Minnesota to start the second-half he started complaining about pain in his shoulder. He played in the first game of the second-half and then went on the DL for over a month. When he did come back, he wasn’t the same player he had been in the first-half.

2001 1st half = .308/.346/.507
2001 2nd half = .288/.316/.404
2002 1st half = .257/.273/.341
2002 2nd half = .292/.315/.440

Heck, if those four different "halves" were actually full seasons worth of stats and you arranged them in a certain way, you’d think Guzman was a superstar in the making:

1999 = .257/.273/.341
2000 = .288/.316/.404
2001 = .292/.315/.440
2002 = .308/.346/.507

If that was the reality, you’d see a guy who’s batting average was steadily rising and who’s SLG keeps jumping up 50 points a year.

The thing that makes a player so incredibly frustrating to fans is the flashes of brilliance like Guzman shows. If a player would just constantly and consistently stink, no fan would go crazy because of him. It is a player like Guzman that makes fans go completely nuts. He slugs .507 in one half of a season and then slugs .341 in another. And then, just when you are ready to stop believing in him altogether, he bounces back with a .292 batting average and a .440 slugging % so you’ll have the whole off-season to ponder his future.

Guzman’s plate discipline has always been awful, but it showed signs of coming around in 2000, when he walked once every 15 plate appearances. He took a step back in 2001, despite his all-star season, and walked once every 25 PAs. Last year he was a complete mess at the plate and walked once every 39 PAs, which is simply awful. In fact, of the 151 MLB players that qualified for the batting title last season, Guzman ranked tied for 151st (dead last!) in walks per plate appearance. Who was he tied with? Randall Simon. Yippee!

The lesson here is that a player that has absolutely no plate discipline can go from valuable to completely useless extremely quickly because his entire offensive game is based on his batting average.

In Guzman’s defense, I do think a lot of his disappointing play over the last season and a half has been due to various injuries. At times over the past two seasons it seems as though Guzman is simply being lazy on defense; making lazy, off-target throws to first base, not bending enough on routine grounders and occasionally letting one go right through his legs and simply not showing the range he showed when he first came up in 1999. I believe Guzman is a little lackadaisical by nature, but I also think a lot of that "laziness" is actually the effects of leg and foot injuries.

When you look at his stolen base and triples totals, it becomes painfully obvious that Guzman has something wrong with him:

2000 + 2nd half of 2001 = 45/61 in stolen bases (74%) with 33 triples in 998 at bats (1 every 30 ABs).

2nd half of 2001 + 2002 = 20/35 in stolen bases (57%) with 7 triples in 769 at bats (1 every 110 ABs).

There was nothing more exciting than watching Cristian Guzman smack a line drive into the gap someplace and seeing him sprint around the bases, knowing full well he’d be sliding into third base before the play was over. Cristian Guzman has not been the same player since he came back from the all-star game in 2001.

There were some signs of life in the second-half last season. After a miserable first-half that included a .273 OBP and going 6/16 on stolen base attempts, Guzman hit .292/.315/.440 in the second-half and even managed to steal more bases than times caught (6/9). I am cautiously optimistic with Guzman, as I think most Twins fans are. I could see him putting together a .290/.320/.440 season and I am hoping to see him sprinting around second base as the relay throw comes in from right field at least 10 times this year.

Torii Hunter established himself as the official "star" of the Minnesota Twins last season by winning another Gold Glove, starting the all-star game (and robbing Superman of a homer) and generally having a very good season.

There are some reasons to withhold complete, unbridled optimism however. Hunter hit out his mind in April, going .371/.409/.676 with nine homers and five doubles in 90 at bats. He finished the first-half of the year at .306/.347/.564 with 20 homers and 21 doubles in 337 ABs. Hunter then began the second-half hot, hitting .360/.407/.693 in the month of July, but tailed off considerably after that, finishing at .263/.315/.464 in the second-half overall.

Taken as a whole, Hunter’s 2002 season was a definite improvement from his 2001. However, if you isolate only his second-half numbers from last year they look remarkably similar to his overall 2001 totals:

2001 (overall) = .261/.306/.479
2002 (2nd half) = .263/.315/.464

Both of those hitting lines are certainly very good, particularly from a Gold Glove centerfielder, but they aren’t anywhere close to the level of Hunter’s 2002 first-half performance.

So which is the "real" Torii Hunter? Is he the guy with the .260 average and the SLG in the upper-.400s? Or is he the guy with the .300 average and the mid-.500s SLG? I am going to take the easy way out and say that he’s probably somewhere in between.

I think a .280/.325/.500 performance in 2003 is probably a pretty good guess. That type of offense, along with his D and improved work on the bases (23/31 in SBs in 2003) definitely puts Hunter among the elite CFs in baseball.

Torii Hunter has become noticeably stronger and larger of late and, besides helping his power numbers, I think it has affected him negatively in the field. It seemed throughout last season that a lot of the types of balls Hunter tracked down for outs in 2001 were turning into extra-base hits. I hate to use such an obvious cliché, but it truly seemed as though he was a step slower defensively than he was in 2001. Along with my personal observations, his defensive numbers would seem to bear that out.

His Zone Rating dropped from .904 in 2001 to .897 last year. That may seem like a completely insignificant drop and it may very well be. However, his Range Factor also dropped from 3.29 in 2001 to 2.70 last year, despite the fact that, as mentioned earlier, the Twins pitching staff actually gave up more fly balls in 2002 than they did in 2001. Now, there are a lot of possible reasons for a slight drop in ZR and a big drop in RF, some of which would end up explaining how Hunter really didn’t decline.

However, Hunter was also significantly worse in quite a few of the more advanced methods of looking at defense. For example: Diamond-Mind gave him a rating of "Excellent" for 2001 and dropped him to "Very Good" for last year.

Baseball Prospectus had Hunter as 54 "Fielding Runs Above Replacement" in 2001 and only 26 FRAR last season. They also had him as 30 "Fielding Runs Above Average" in 2001 and only 3 FRAA last year.

All of those rankings and stats go pretty well with my personal observations from last year, which were basically that he declined noticeably, but was still an above-average CF. I have seen the Twins on TV several times this spring and Hunter appears to me to have gotten even larger, which I’m hoping doesn’t mean he’s in for another defensive drop-off in 2003.

At 30, Corey Koskie is the elder statesman among Twins hitters. He’s been a solid offensive player for the Twins since 1999, but his batting average continued to fall for the fourth season in a row in 2002, from .310 to .300 to .276 to .267. Koskie struggled through multiple injuries last season and, at times, had the look of a player with declining bat speed, often swinging through multiple pitches per at bat (usually high fastballs), particularly in the second-half. Despite his falling batting average, Corey Koskie continued to be a very disciplined hitter and one of the best OBP sources in the Twins lineup.

While his batting averages have been declining, Koskie’s defense has been improving just as steadily. When he first came up, he was a below-average third baseman and there was talk of him moving to first base or to an outfield corner. In fact, he played 25 games in right field in his first year with the Twins. Koskie worked very hard and has turned himself into a great defensive third baseman; one of the best in all of baseball. A Canadian that spent much of his youth playing goalie, Koskie is particularly good at making diving "glove saves," often going completely horizontal.

If his batting averages continues to drop, he is going to have difficulty maintaining his place as a top-level hitter. That said, he has shown great plate discipline his entire career and his power has developed quite a bit from his early days. Koskie should once again be one of the best 3B in the AL, although his age and the falling averages are concerning.

Can he be a major league catcher? Probably. Will he catch? I really doubt it.

Matthew LeCroy is probably just happy to finally get a chance to play everyday, which he’ll likely get to do in 2003 - as the DH. LeCroy has the Body by Hrbek and he’s got the same type of power. In 196 career AAA games he has a hitting line of .327/.381/.568, including .351/.412/.609 in 46 games there last season.

In his stint with the Twins in 2003 he appeared to be a "Lefty-Masher," but he actually did significantly better against righties last season in Triple-A. The Twins main DH last season, David Ortiz, hit .272/.339/.500 in 466 plate appearances. Those are definitely numbers LeCroy could approach in 2003. He isn’t going to walk a whole lot, but he should hit for a good average and smack a ton of extra-base hits and he’ll almost certainly be better against left-handers than Ortiz was last season, which is an added bonus.

LeCroy is already 27 and has done just about all he can do in the minor leagues to show he’s ready. He needs to have a good year in 2003 to hold off the onslaught of potential DHs making their way through the Minnesota system and I think he’ll do just that.

I go back and forth on Doug Mientkiewicz. On one hand, he is an extraordinary defensive player, the best first baseman I have ever seen, and I don’t think it is hyperbole to say that he saves at least a dozen runs with his glove every year. He definitely doesn’t play defense like most first basemen. On the other hand, he doesn’t hit like most first basemen either. Still, he isn’t a complete Kevin Young/Eric Karros-type disaster offensively because he gets on base at a good clip, which is something the Minnesota offense needs.

If he hits like he did in 2001, Mientkiewicz is a very good first baseman, well above-average when defense is accounted for. If he hits like he did last year, he is very average and someone a team should definitely be looking to upgrade.

The only real positive development in Mientkiewicz’s offensive game last year was an increase in walks. After walking once every 9.3 PAs in 2001 he bumped that up to once every 7.5 PAs last year. His walk rate of .134 BB/PA ranked 10th in the AL, right between Jorge Posada and Troy Glaus.

All the other aspects of Mientkiewicz’s hitting dropped off in 2002. His batting average dropped over 40 points. His power also went down, although less so than his batting average. His HR rate dropped from one every 36.2 ABs in 2001 to one every 46.7 ABs in 2002. His doubles dropped from 1/13.9 ABs in 2001 to 1/16.1 ABs in 2002.

While Mientkiewicz is very mediocre offensively, at least he is equally mediocre against both righties and lefties:

2002:

vs. RHP = .263/.366/.384
vs. LHP = .257/.361/.408

2001:

vs. RHP = .300/.379/.470
vs. LHP = .322/.409/.448

Over the last 2+ years he has an .812 OPS against lefties and an .805 OPS against righties.

This is completely unfounded by any stats or evidence of any kind, but I think Doug Mientkiewicz will bounce back in 2003 and have a very nice season - something along the lines of .290/.380/.440, with some awesome defense.

The Twins haven’t had a big-time power hitter - or even a 30 HR hitter - in about 15 years. Michael Cuddyer could change that very quickly. He’s got huge power - both home run and doubles - and his right-handed bat would fit in very nicely in the middle of the Twins lineup.

For 2003, the expectations appear to be very conservative. Cuddyer will probably spend the beginning of the year batting in the lower part of the lineup, where the pressure to be a big run-producer will be minimal. He’ll be a very good candidate for the Rookie-of-the-Year award if he can come close to matching his MLE from last year at AAA, which was .291/.356/.523. In fact, something similar to that MLE would probably make him the best overall hitter on the team.

The comparison I have heard most often with Cuddyer is Tim Salmon. I think that has some merit, although I don’t think Cuddyer will walk as often as Salmon did right away (Salmon walked 82 times in 142 games as a rookie in 1993). The rest of the comparison works though. They are both big, right-handed hitters and, if Cuddyer stays there, they are both right fielders. Salmon typically has had batting averages in the .280-.300 range and slugging percentages hovering around .500, which is about where I think Cuddyer will eventually establish his level of performance.

I’d say his goal for 2003 should be to play well enough to allow Gardenhire’s decision on who the right fielder should be to be a simple one all season long. If he can hit .275/.340/.475 in his rookie year, I’d be happy, and anything above and beyond that is just a bonus. He’ll eventually be a fixture in the middle of the lineup for a very long time.

8) A.J. Pierzynski - Catcher
YEAR	LG	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	2B	3B	BB	SB
2001	MLB	407	.289	.322	.441	7	33	2	16	1Aaron Gleeman Posted: March 28, 2003 at 12:00 AM | 7 comment(s)   Related News: General Reader Comments and Retorts Go to end of page Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments. Page 1 of 1 pages    1. Jason Posted: March 27, 2003 at 09:52 PM (#610085) Once again, great article, now if you and Bonnes could just take over for Souhan or some of the guys at the Pioneer Press. I believe the Twins are set for a great season, and I'm usually pessimitic conserning my own teams. Why set yourself up for dissapointment? Some of the reasons for this is that some of the Twins former prospects are starting to get older and turning into veterens. I was excited to hear that Radke actually worked on strengthing his legs instead of just fishing all year long. Dougie also put a lot of work into the offseason to try to improve his stability. I'm still worried about the treatment of injuries and the players attitude. I don't think Milton should be missing time this year. He had pain and swelling since his surgery last year and thought it would just get better by not dealing with it. Koskies attitude towards his back his also a little to "macho" (See note at twinsgeek.com) Aaron, concerning Rivas, I do think this still hope for improvement. I also think you might be selling him a little short on his double play ablity. If you know of any stats about double play ability I think they would be interesting. Also, I'd like to see stats about range and defense for Rivas and Guzman on grass as opposed to the turf on in the dome. I have a hunch that their defense would be at least a little closer to average on surfaces that aren't cement. Great article, keep up the great work.    2. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: March 27, 2003 at 09:52 PM (#610090) Charlie Saeger take note-- this is how you do a team preview. As always, great job Aaron.    3. Bruce Markusen Posted: March 27, 2003 at 09:52 PM (#610091) Aaron, excellent article. Great depth on the Twins. Very, very well done.    4. Aaron Gleeman Posted: March 28, 2003 at 09:52 PM (#610093) Hi Guys - Glad you enjoyed the article and thanks for the comments. I don't see any statistical evidence there that Eddie Guardado pitched better in 2001. In fact, it looks like he pitched distinctly better in 2002 except for home runs. While I do think that Guardado was better in 2001 than he was last year (just slightly, as I said), it is definitely a debatable thing, which was pretty much my whole point. Despite pitching essentially the same two years in a row, his 2002 is seen as far superior by most "average" baseball fans, simply because of his 45 saves. You would agree with that, wouldn't you? That's really all I was saying. Aaron, I forget if you answered me on DTFC: does Rivas' 2002 XBH rate not excite you? Actually yes, it sort of does a little bit. It is essentially the only reason I have not completely given up him on him being useful (although many of you probably think I have). Still his XBH rate is not all that great and he strikes out an awful lot for someone that doesn't hit any homers. His isolated power was .136 last year, which would have ranked him 116th among batting title qualifiers last season. It's probably his best quality as a player (it certainly aint his D), but it's still not that great. He has never shown the ability (outside of those 157 ABs) to hit for a good average, so he'll need power at some point to make himself more than an average hitter, if that.    5. Marc Posted: March 29, 2003 at 09:52 PM (#610102) Great article. Like Aaron, I am a Twins fan and a Minnesota sports fan generally. So maybe after 40+ years of same I am just a fatalist. But 100 wins? The Twins have any number of potholes that could derail the juggernaut this season. 1) Injuries. Milton, now perhaps Mays, Koskie...there's a history of injuries and they are already recurring. 2) OBA. Even a .284 BA may not be enough with middling power and low OBA. 3) Bullpen. Hope Santana can stay there because there is reason to wonder if Eddie and LaTroy can keep it going. 4) Guzman/Rivas defense. That's a lot of question marks. I think 90 games will require two of the four to be answered effectively. If three are problems, then 85 is more likely and that probably is not enough. 90 yes, 85 no. Sure all four of these questions could be answered and they could win 95, but even then not 100.    6. Robert Dudek Posted: March 30, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610115) Aaron, It's important to note that the Metrodome is the best doubles/triples park in the AL.    7. Cris E Posted: March 30, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610133) Another shortcoming of Rivas (which could be a plus if you hate him enough) is his inability to stay healthy. The guy gets hurt and misses a lot of games. If the Twins had MI depth it would be one thing, but Denny F@$#ing Hocking got 42 starts at 2B last year (69 starts overall) and that's too many. Page 1 of 1 pages You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.   << Back to main	Support BBTF My Bookmarks You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. 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