San Diego Padres

2003 Recap

Just when Padre fans thought things couldn't get any worse, they did. Coming off a disappointing 2002 campaign, the Friars looked to turn their fortunes around in their final season at Qualcomm Stadium. Instead, they saw Phil Nevin miss all but 59 games, Trevor Hoffman pitch just 9 innings, and Ryan Klesko sit out an all-but-meaningless September in a season of frustration.

But for a team that lost 98 games, there were moments of hope: The continued development of Sean Burroughs and Jake Peavy, Adam Eaton's strong return from Tommy John surgery, Rod Beck's improbable comeback, and the eventual return of Nevin and Hoffman. Top prospects Xavier Nady and Khalil Greene showed their talents (and that they still have a ways to go in fully developing those talents). And of course, Brian Giles came to town, which gave the Padres arguably their biggest offensive talent since Gary Sheffield manned the hot corner a decade ago.

In 2004, the Padres move into their new downtown ballpark with the hope and expectation that their mix of up-and-comers and proven veterans will make for a competitive squad in what doesn't figure to be one of the stronger divisions in baseball. The patience displayed in years past by management and fans has been replaced by a sense that now is the time to make a move. With all that the Padres and San Diego have put into Petco Park, there is no place for another 90+ loss season. The Pads have their new stadium; now they need to demonstrate that it was worth the trouble.

The Ballpark

Qualcomm Stadium tended to depress run scoring in general (85 park index over 2002-03) and hurt left-handed power hitters in particular (74 index for homers by lefties over that same period). We can't be certain how Petco will play, but we can look at some of its characteristics and make educated guesses.

• Straightaway left field is a little further at Petco (334 ft) than at the Q (327 ft), but left-center is actually a shade closer (367 ft, vs 370 ft).
• Dead center is closer at Petco (396 ft) than at the Q (405 ft), but the right-center corner at Petco is 411 ft away from home plate.
• Right-center is further at Petco (378 ft) than at the Q (370 ft), but down the line is closer (322 ft, vs 327 ft).
• I don't have measurements for this, but on first glance it appears that there is considerably less foul territory behind the plate and down the lines at Petco.
• The infield looks to be in better shape than that at the Q.
• The visitor's bullpen, a few oddly placed seats, and a deep right-center corner promise to make right field an adventure.
• The prevailing winds are expected to run straight across from left to right field. How strong these winds will be is an open question.

From this knowledge, and without any games ever having been played there yet, I'll suggest a few possibilities:

• Lefties who are dead pull hitters should have more success at Petco than at the Q. On the Padres, Ryan Klesko best fits this description. If he can hook balls down the line and away from the power alleys, Klesko could hit 30+ homers for the third time in his career. The other side of that coin is that Petco could be more difficult on right-handed fly ball pitchers. Someone like Kevin Jarvis would probably have a tough time here.
• Guys who primarily hit balls in the gaps could see some of their home runs turn into doubles or triples. Brian Giles and Phil Nevin are likely to be most affected here. Both are good bets for 35-40 doubles this season. The deep alleys also could keep Sean Burroughs' home run power at bay for another year. He'll hit 30+ doubles and threaten double-digit triples instead.
• From a defensive standpoint, the center and right fielders both are going to have a lot of ground to cover. The right fielder will also have to contend with the visitor's bullpen, as well as the bizarrely located sections 125 and 127. It might make sense for some teams to stick their regular center fielder in right when they come to San Diego.
• The reduced foul ground won't help pitchers, who will see many outs turn into second chances. Not only will some of those chances turn into hits, but a secondary effect is that pitchers may have to throw more pitches. My suspicion is that the lack of foul territory will prove more bothersome than will the outfield configuration.
• The better infield will have a very slightly positive effect. If nothing else, it may encourage pitchers to keep the ball on the ground and away from the expansive outfield.

Overall my expectation is that Petco will play as a pitchers' park, but not to the extreme degree that Qualcomm did. We'll have a better idea after the season, but we probably won't know for sure until around 2006 or 2007.

Off-Season Moves

The big moves were bringing in catcher Ramon Hernandez for Mark Kotsay, along with signing David Wells. Lesser moves that could pay serious dividends include the signings of southpaw Sterling Hitchcock, Japanese reliever Akinori Otsuka, and outfielder Jay Payton.

Incoming

INF Jeff Cirillo, C Ramon Hernandez, LHP Sterling Hitchcock, LHP Edgar Huerta, OF Eugene Kingsale, OF Terrence Long, RHP Antonio Osuna, RHP Akinori Otsuka, OF Jay Payton, OF Henri Stanley, RHP Brian Sweeney, RHP Ismael Valdes, LHP David Wells, C Tom Wilson

Outgoing

C Gary Bennett, C Wiki Gonzalez, RHP Luther Hackman, 1B Dave Hansen, RHP Kevin Jarvis, OF Mark Kotsay, INF Keith Lockhart, OF Gary Matthews Jr., LHP Mike Matthews, INF Donaldo Mendez, RHP Brandon Villafuerte

The Players

The Lineup

1. Sean Burroughs, 3B. After a lackluster rookie season, Burroughs came on strong as a sophomore, posting the kind of numbers expected of him. He hit for a solid batting average, drew a few walks, and a knocked a bunch of doubles. The home run power hasn't arrived yet, but at age 23 there's no great hurry in that department. Burroughs also helped solidify the Pads' infield defense, showing above-average range, sure hands, and a strong and accurate arm. Toward the end of the season, the Padres experimented with Burroughs in the leadoff slot. Although he lacks the pure speed once needed from that position, Burroughs doesn't clog up the bases. More importantly, his approach at the plate--further nurtured by hitting coach Dave Magadan--lends itself well to the top of the order, where he can get on base and let the big boppers drive him in. Burroughs isn't quite ready to break out just yet. Expect more of the same this year, then watch him take the next step in 2005.
2. Mark Loretta, 2B. Signed on the cheap before the 2003 season, Loretta was the Padres' most consistent offensive performer last year, establishing in the process a new franchise record for hits in a season by a second baseman. Since inked to a contract extension, Loretta should continue to thrive in the #2 hole, where this year he'll have the added benefit of hitting in front of one of the National League's more dangerous hitters for a full season. Without a great deal of fanfare, Loretta will again be one of the more productive second basemen in the NL.
3. Brian Giles, RF. He cost the Padres some pretty good young talent, but getting Giles added instant credibility to a team that desperately needed it. Giles' power numbers were down a bit last year, and given his age and the layout of his new home ballpark, he may no longer be a consistent 30+ homer guy, but his presence in the lineup gives the Padres a completely different look. Expect Giles to keep hitting for a high average and drawing a ton of walks. Some of his homers will turn into doubles, but he'll still check in at .300/.400/.500 or better. The biggest challenge Giles will face this year is negotiating the wackiness that is right field in Petco Park.
4. Phil Nevin, 1B. Coming off an essentially lost season, Nevin returns to the infield, where can do less damage to himself and keep himself healthy to do more damage to opposing pitchers. Despite logging just 226 at-bats in 2003, only two players launched more homers in a Padre uniform last year than did Nevin. Although this is partly an indictment of the Pads' offense from a year ago, it's also an indication that Nevin is back. At the end of last season, he was once again driving balls with authority into right-center. The downside is that right-center is the deepest part of Petco Park and some of Nevin's homers at the Q may turn into doubles at the new digs. Either that or he changes his hitting style to accommodate the park. The hope here is that he keeps playing to his strength and is content to hit, say, 40 doubles and 25 homers instead of 30 doubles and 35 homers. If the Padres are to have any success at all this year, they need the heart of the order to stay healthy. Nevin has been the most fragile of the big three, and hopefully the move to first base will keep him in the lineup more often.
5. Ryan Klesko, LF. Originally slated for right field, Klesko shifted to left thanks to Petco Park's configuration, where right field looks to be the most challenging of the three outfield positions. Fortunately he has extensive experience in left field from his days with the Braves; unfortunately, he hasn't manned the position regularly since 1999. Klesko is a good athlete and should do fine out there. And even if he doesn't, he'll hit, which is what the Padres need out of Klesko first and foremost. Assuming he's fully recovered from shoulder surgery, he ought to improve on last year's performance, although at age 33 he might not return all the way back to 1999-2002 levels.
6. Jay Payton, CF. Brought in at the last minute, Payton takes over for Kotsay in center and buys more time for Xavier Nady, who was rushed last year due to Nevin's injury. Although Payton hasn't exactly been a picture of health throughout his career, he did manage to play in 157 games last year. He also hit a career high 28 homers. Yes, he did that as a member of the Rockies, but 15 of the bombs came away from Coors Field. And although Payton's overall numbers were (expectedly) better at home, he hit a respectable .281/.330/.483 on the road. That's basically 2002 Kotsay, with a little less OBP and a little more power. Reports on Payton's defense are mixed. He probably won't be as good out there as a healthy Kotsay, but the extra pop he provides should offset any defensive shortcomings he may have.
7. Ramon Hernandez, C. The big off-season acquisition almost turned into the big off-season departure, but the Jason Kendall deal never materialized and Hernandez is a Padre. Hernandez is durable (135+ games each of the past four seasons), he brings with him a reputation as a good handler of pitchers, he hits a bit, and he's at a stage in his career where a little more improvement is possible. For the first time since Benito Santiago, the Pads have a bona fide big-league catcher who can be expected to serve as more than a stopgap until a better option is found. Although Hernandez' offensive prowess may be overstated by the mainstream media, who are more likely to remember the 21 homers he hit last year than the 648 OPS he posted in 2002, he represents a huge upgrade over the likes of Gary Bennett, Wiki Gonzalez, Michael Rivera, Miguel Ojeda, and Humberto Quintero. He will be a steadying force behind the plate and won't be a complete zero at it. The guess here is that Hernandez' numbers will drop a touch from last year as he learns to work with a new group of pitchers and that the benefits he provides the staff will offset any reduced offensive output. Hernandez won't be spectacular, but he'll be out there everyday and he'll be better than a lot of other guys the Padres have had in the #7 slot in recent years.
8. Khalil Greene/Rey Ordonez/Ramon Vazquez, SS. This is the one position that is unsettled coming into spring training. Greene is the highly touted youngster, Ordonez is the veteran brought into push him/provide insurance, and Vazquez is the underappreciated guy who probably doesn't have a real shot at winning the job. Greene, the Padres' first round pick out of Clemson in 2002, started last year slowly at Double-A Mobile before picking up the pace at Triple-A Portland and finishing the season in San Diego, where he hit .215/.271/.400 in 65 at-bats and drew praise for his defensive work. The main knocks on Greene are that he doesn't draw many walks (just 40 in nearly 670 plate appearance at three levels in 2003) and that he isn't particularly flashy in the field. But he does have a quick bat that generates decent power for a guy his size, sure hands and a quick first step at shortstop, and a good feel for the game. Greene frequently is compared to Rich Aurilia, and if Greene takes the job, he'll hit about like Aurilia did in his first full season (.266/.319/.407).
   
   Ordonez is a little trickier. On the one hand, he's been a complete offensive nothing for almost his entire big-league career. On the other, he's got a terrific defensive reputation that was probably well deserved earlier in his career but not so much now. And what do we make of his 34-game excursion into the unexplored territory of hitting production last year before missing the remainder of the season due to a knee injury? Absolutely everything about it--his age, the tiny sample size, the overwhelming evidence to the contrary built up over seven years of utter futility--screams fluke. But what if it wasn't and he actually has learned how to hit? Stranger things have happened. I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I'm sure there must be something.
   
   As for Vazquez, the former shortstop of the future finds himself, after a season in which he almost exactly duplicated what he'd done the previous year, as the utility infielder of the present. Vazquez is kind of like Desi Relaford. He does a lot of things pretty well, but nothing really well. And his versatility actually may work against him in terms of landing and keeping a starting job. But Vazquez is a smooth defender who can play anywhere on the infield and who has decent on-base skills. If he were three years younger, he'd be exciting. As it is, he's merely useful and there's nothing wrong with that.
   
   The guess here is that with management's emphasis on winning now, Ordonez lands the job in spring training, but that Greene will be a factor before the season is done. Whoever wins the job will be batting eighth and won't be expected to provide much offense.

The Bench

Bruce Bochy will have a little more to work with in terms of maneuverability than he did last year. Newly acquired Tom Wilson appears to have the inside track on the backup catcher job, and he's better than anyone the Pads ran out behind the dish in 2003. He also destroys left-handed pitching (.311/.396/.451 over the past three years), which is handy given the fact that Hernandez is stronger against right-handers (.264/.332/.409 in that same time period, vs .233/.295/.393 against southpaws). On the infield, Vazquez and newcomer Jeff Cirillo both have experience as big-league starters. Before two nightmarish seasons in Seattle, Cirillo was one of the more unheralded hitters in the National League. At 34, he shouldn't be washed up and he still boasts a career line of .299/.369/.435. He'll spell Burroughs against the tough lefties and be one of Bochy's top right-handed bats off the bench. In the outfield, the steady Brian Buchanan will return for his 200 at-bats of 800 OPS, playing mostly against lefties (against whom he's hit .270/.368/.528 over the past three seasons). He'll be joined by Terrence Long, acquired in the Hernandez deal to help offset Mark Kotsay's salary. Long has seen his OPS decline in each of his first four big-league seasons and now he'll be faced with the prospect of not being a regular player for the first time in his career. How he responds is anybody's guess. With his contract, Long is a prime trade candidate should he get off to a hot start. Catcher Miguel Ojeda, first baseman Todd Sears, and outfielder Eugene Kingsale also will get looks during spring training but are longshots to make the club.

The Rotation

1. David Wells, LHP. While Padre fans clung to the hope that Greg Maddux would come to San Diego, as had been rumored for quite some time, David Wells snuck in and signed for a fraction of the cost. And although Wells may not be a prototypical #1 starter, he does a number of things that should benefit the Padres, particularly the young pitchers behind him in the rotation. He throws strikes, works ahead in the count, pitches deep into ballgames, and knows how to handle the media. As much as we like to reduce players to their statistical essence, it's important to recognize the value a guy may have to a team above and beyond the numbers attached to his name. Wells isn't a great pitcher and at age 41, that isn't likely to change anytime soon. But he does provide--as overused as it may be--some veteran leadership on a club with a slew of promising young hurlers who can use all the help they can get. Say what you will about Wells, but his potential influence on the kids in terms of pitching, preparation, etc., is something that cannot be measured by any statistic and which likely will pay dividends for the Padres long after he is gone. In its own way, the Pads' signing of Wells was an investment in the future. He's got one year to perform and show the kids how it's done. Then, after that, they're on their own.
2. Brian Lawrence, RHP. Last year's nominal ace endured an up-and-down season but finished strong (2.66 ERA over his final 10 starts). Lawrence's 2003 was weird in many respects. He improved his hit prevention, but saw his strikeouts go down and homers go up. And he had some of the more extreme catcher splits that you're likely ever to see:
   
   

               IP   H HR BB SO  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB GB/FB
   Bennett  154.2 137 18 38 82 3.20  7.97 1.05 2.21 4.77  2.16  1.72
   others    50.0  66  9 19 27 7.02 11.88 1.62 3.42 4.86  1.42  1.31

   With Gary Bennett behind the plate, Lawrence is among the league leaders in ERA. With others, he was a completely different pitcher last year. Check out those peripherals. Current theory holds that catcher ERA doesn't mean a whole lot, and many Padre fans are hoping that is the case, but those are some pretty unusual splits. Regardless, Lawrence won't miss many starts (or bats) and should keep the Padres in the game most times. With the new and improved bullpen, that will be a recipe for success in 2004.
3. Adam Eaton, RHP. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Eaton did about what you'd expect. He pitched brilliantly in spots but lacked consistency from start to start and within games. But the velocity was back, as was the variety of pitches (even if he didn't always have the best command of them). The main concern with Eaton is that he worked 183 innings after having missed most of the previous season. If that's not a red flag, then it's at least bright orange. It's easy to forget that Eaton is just 26 years old and still learning his craft. Give him health and a little better command, and you're looking at one of the better pitchers in the NL. If he can steer clear of the DL, this is the year he starts moving in that direction. Last year in this space I said the keys for Eaton in 2003 were "to throw without pain and to gain consistency." He made it through the season healthy. Now it's time for the second half of that equation.
4. Jake Peavy, RHP. What's not to like? Well, he threw more innings (194.2) than you'd like to see out of a 22-year-old. Okay, a lot more innings. He surrendered too many home runs (32). He walked too many batters (80). Those are the negatives. Nothing anyone can do about the innings now but hope that a) they don't come back to haunt him and b) that workload doesn't happen again. But he's a member of a big-league rotation, on a team that expects to contend, so he'll probably work 200 innings again. Here we could jump into a philosophical discussion on the benefits and risks of bringing pitchers to the big leagues at such a young age, but we won't. Instead, we'll hope that Peavy can show better command and keep his pitch counts down, thus possibly reducing the impact of those innings (I qualify it with "possibly" because we can't, despite our best efforts, really quantify this sort of thing). Peavy threw strikes in the minors, and maybe getting to watch David Wells do it every fifth day will help him realize that the same formula that worked in the minors will work in the big leagues as well. One encouraging sign is the fact that Peavy got stronger as the season progressed last year:

                    IP   H HR BB SO  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
   Pre All-Star  116.2 112 21 49 88 4.55 8.64 1.62 3.78 6.79  1.80
   Post All-Star  78.0  61 12 33 68 3.46 7.04 1.38 3.81 7.85  2.06

   And if you throw out the four starts he made while trying to pitch through a left oblique injury in July, here is his line for the year:

      IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
   173.1 145 26 68 140 3.53 7.53 1.35 3.53 7.27  2.06

   Last year I said I expected Peavy to be the staff ace in 2005. If he can stay healthy (and at his age, with his workload, that is a big "if"), he's well on his way to fullfilling that promise and then some.
5. Sterling Hitchcock, LHP/Ismael Valdes, RHP/Ben Howard, RHP. Two veterans looking to make their way back and a kid trying to establish himself. Of the vets, Hitchcock would appear to have the early advantage. First, he is left-handed. In a division with the likes of Barry Bonds and Todd Helton, that is (or at least will be considered) a plus. Second, he has a history with the Padres. Hitchcock's performance in the 1998 post-season is not something that will soon be forgotten in these parts. Despite the fact that he's had all kinds of trouble staying off the DL, Hitchcock has remained fairly effective when healthy. Well, "effective" might be overstating it, but look at what he's done over the past four seasons while battling injuries versus what he did the previous five when healthy (prorated to 200 IP for easier comparison):

             IP  H HR BB  SO  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
   1995-99 200 208 29 70 157 4.65  9.35 1.30 3.17 7.05  2.22
   2000-03 200 233 27 71 154 5.13 10.47 1.23 3.22 6.95  2.16

   More hits allowed, higher ERA; but the other peripherals are about the same. I'm not going to suggest that Hitchcock will pick up where he left off in 1999, but he did pitch well at the end of last season with the Cardinals, and a team could do worse for a #5 starter.
   
   On the other hand, it's hard to muster up a lot of hope for Valdes. Overuse at age 21 and 22. One great season at age 23. Several years of mediocrity. Disaster in Texas at age 29. Maybe he has something left, but this feels like another Francisco Cordova situation to me. Bring in a guy who used to be good and see what he can do. If you get something out of him, great. If not, you didn't invest a lot in him so no big loss.
   
   Howard is the dark horse who is most likely headed to Portland to refine his command. He's always had overpowering stuff and now he's learning how to use it. Howard showed signs with the big club last year, and in many seasons he'd be the front-runner for a spot in the rotation. But it will take a minor miracle for him to land a job over one of the veterans. He'll start the season at Triple-A and be the first one up if someone should falter.

The Bullpen

1. Trevor Hoffman, RHP. The heart and soul of the Padres, Hoffman missed the first five months of 2003 thanks to a shoulder injury. The good news is he came back in September looking as strong as ever. Hoffman has been working in the high-80s for years, so velocity isn't a big concern. His game is all about locating, throwing any pitch in any situation, and repeating his delivery so it's impossible to tell which one is coming. Hoffman will resume his closing duties and continue to add to his record for most saves by a pitcher for one team. With a strong supporting cast, including several pitchers who have experience finishing games, Hoffman isn't likely to be overworked. Last year was a blip on the radar screen. This season it's back to business as usual for the Pads' closer.
2. Rod Beck, RHP. The closer nobody wanted came to San Diego in June and almost single-handedly turned the bullpen around, converting on all 20 save opportunities. Armed with an arsenal that looked suspiciously like Hoffman's, Beck came out and took care of business. This year, assuming his arm holds up (hardly a given; he did miss the entire 2002 season), Beck will help bridge the gap between the starters and Hoffman. He filled that role admirably for the Red Sox in 2001, and there's no reason (other than health) to suspect that he won't do so again for the Padres now. Plus he's got a killer moustache.
3. Akinori Otsuka, RHP. This year's International Man of Mystery comes by way of Japan, amid surprisingly little fanfare. Otsuka doesn't throw hard but reportedly features a nasty slider that tumbles like a splitter. From a purely statistical standpoint (ignoring repertoire, etc.), his Japanese record compares well with that of Kaz Sasaki:

             IP   H HR  BB  SO  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9  SO/9 SO/BB
   Otsuka 350.2 237 26 117 474 2.39 6.08 0.67 3.00 12.17  4.05
   Sasaki 599.0 373 53 225 828 2.31 5.60 0.80 3.38 12.44  3.68

   If Otsuka can come anywhere close to matching Sasaki's success on this side of the Pacific, the Padres could have themselves a real nice bullpen.
4. Jay Witasick, RHP. Last year's big pitching acquisition missed the first two months of ths season thanks to a freak injury sustained during spring training. Unfortunately he never did get on track. Witasick should bounce back strong. If he does, with his contract and the increased depth of the Padres' bullpen, he would seem to be a good candidate to be traded again.
5. Scott Linebrink, RHP. Claimed on waivers from the Astros last May, Linebrink quickly established himself as a valuable middle reliever, compiling a 2.82 ERA over 60.2 innings with solid peripherals. He'll continue to work in relatively low-pressure situations. Linebrink also has some starting experience, so there's always the possibility that he could step in for a stretch should the club need it.
6. Antonio Osuna, RHP. Signed on the cheap this winter, Osuna still throws gas. The former future closer of the Dodgers has had a number of arm injuries over the past several years and is coming off an up-and-down campaign with the Yankees. And although his hit prevention isn't what it was before the injuries, Osuna continues to post solid strikeout totals. He's only 30, he has a good arm, and he can pitch. If he can stay off the shelf, this could be a very nice pickup for the Padres.
7. Kevin Walker/Edgar Huerta, LHP. Walker is the incumbent who spent most of last season in the minors working his way back to San Diego. Huerta is the unknown import from the Mexico City Tigers with upside. Walker, a former high school teammate of Kerry Wood, hasn't been able to stay healthy since a promising rookie campaign in 2000. He's still young and he's had some big-league success. Huerta, meanwhile, is 24 years old and reportedly packs mid-90s heat. He has zero experience on this side of the border. Not that the last guy in the bullpen will excite many folks, but I'm figuring that Walker will win the job and Huerta will be waiting in the wings at Triple-A Portland. Or the other way around.

Down on the Farm

With the likes of Sean Burroughs and Jake Peavy now graduated, the Padres' minor-league system isn't as strong as it was a few years ago. The Pads' best prospect, Josh Barfield, will spend the season at Double-A and doesn't figure to make much more than a September cameo this year, if that. Questions remain as to whether he'll stay at second base, but there is little doubt that his bat will play anywhere. Other prospects who could arrive in San Diego at some point during the season include speedy outfielder Freddy Guzman (90 stolen bases in 2003, decent on-base skills), right-handed slugger Jon Knott (think Bubba Trammell), first baseman Tagg Bozied, right-hander Chris Oxspring, and fleet second baseman Bernie Castro. Newcomers OF Henri Stanley (college teammate of Khalil Greene) and RHP Brian Sweeney (part of the Cirillo deal) could also see action with the Pads. Right-hander Dennis Tankersley and southpaw Mike Bynum are still around, and catcher Humberto Quintero is big-league ready behind the plate if not at it. None of these guys, with the possible exception of Guzman (and even that's stretching it), projects as an impact player at the big-league level.

Management

Field

Bruce Bochy is back for another season. His clubs have averaged just under 72 wins a season over the past five years. The 1998 World Series is a distant memory. But now that some of the more promising youngsters have another year under their belts, Bochy has an increasingly veteran team to work with and the more welcome task of trying to win games now rather than develop prospects at the big-league level. Bochy seems to be more comfortable working with guys who know how to play the game than teaching youngsters how to become one of those guys.

With this shift in focus comes a shift in the bottom line. Bochy's job this year is not to stick with the kids and help them turn into useful parts of the next Padre contender, it is to turn this squad into that contender. This club looks to be much improved over last year but it still might be a cog or two shy of being a serious threat. On the other hand, the NL West isn't the strongest division, so who knows. Whatever the case, Bochy should be up to the task of doing battle with an experienced group of players. He's been in this situation before and succeeded. And he knows that with the eyes of the city fixed on Petco Park and the money it cost to build, the Padres need to deliver now.

Front Office

Kevin Towers and company have quietly (and in the case of the Brian Giles deal, not so quietly) made some slick moves to assemble a quality ball club. The Giles and Ramon Hernandez trades get the press, as does the David Wells signing. But if you look beyond those, you see guys like Scott Linebrink and Henri Stanley claimed off waivers; Sterling Hitchcock, Antonio Osuna, and Tom Wilson signed for relatively little money; and imports Edgar Huerta and Akinori Otsuka brought in from the outside. Heck, even turning three immovable objects into Jeff Cirillo was a pretty neat trick.

The farm system isn't as deep or as strong as it was a few years ago, but when you consider that two products of that system are now among the brighter young players in the NL and that three more were packaged as part of a deal to acquire one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball, that can be excused. There aren't many impact players in the system, and the Padres' conservative draft strategy tends to shy away from the high-risk, high-reward types, but Towers continues to show creativity in bringing players in from abroad (Huerta, Otsuka, Oxspring, etc.) and in scouring the indy leagues for talent (e.g., Cory Stewart, part of the Giles trade).

The Padres have at least shown a willingness to try different things in an effort to gain a competitive advantage. Some ventures are more successful than others, but keeping an open mind can only help an organization that cannot simply outspend its opposition. As long as Towers is at the helm, that open-mindedness will continue to exist and the Padres will find ways to be competitive.

Outlook

The NL West has lost a lot of talent this off-season, particularly in the pitching department. Gone are Kevin Brown and Curt Schilling, two legitimate difference makers in the division. Last year I wrote that 90 wins and a playoff berth weren't out of the question. Although that seems laughable now, at the time it made sense. So did my prediction of 78 wins. For 2004, I still don't think 90 wins is out of reach. I also believe that this is a better club now than it was at the same time last year. I'm predicting an 84-78 season. Yes, I realize this represents an increase of 20 wins over a season ago, but when I look at what the current roster has to offer and how it stacks up against other NL West teams, that doesn't seem so outrageous to me.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Hoffman              3.27   4   2  56   0    55.0   45   20   5   18   61 
Osuna                3.30   5   3  52   0    60.0   50   22   2   26   58 
Witasick             3.55   4   3  51   0    66.0   53   26   5   27   72 
Wells*               3.87  11  11  29  28   193.0  204   83  18   35  107 
Ohtsuka              3.89   3   2  47   0    44.0   40   19   7    9   44 
Bruback              3.89   9   8  27  26   162.0  159   70  13   43  109 
Trujillo             3.93   3   4  54   0    71.0   66   31   6   24   58 
Lawrence             3.97  10  12  23  23   202.0  202   89  19   52  133 
Linebrink            4.08   3   4  53   5    86.0   79   39   7   35   69 
Eaton                4.14   8   9  25  25   150.0  139   69  16   52  132 
Deago*               4.26   5   7  28  22   129.0  119   61  12   55  107 
Walker*              4.29   2   2  38   1    42.0   41   20   6   12   36 
Peavy                4.29   9  12  30  30   174.0  158   83  21   68  164 
Hitchcock*           4.32   5   4  26   7    75.0   73   36   8   26   56 
Sweeney              4.34   8   5  33  19   137.0  131   66  18   33   93 
Beck                 4.50   4   5  62   0    70.0   67   35  11   23   62 
Valdes               4.53   8  11  27  27   157.0  166   79  19   45   89 
Hamilton             4.57   6   8  34  17   124.0  131   63  13   40   76 
Tankersley           4.59   6   9  30  27   145.0  131   74  16   71  135 
Borbon*              4.60   3   3  63   0    45.0   43   23   7   16   40 
Condrey              4.61   5   7  35  17   121.0  126   62  13   40   69 
Szuminski            4.65   4   6  42   6    91.0   91   47   6   42   52 
Oropesa*             4.78   3   4  57   0    49.0   45   26   4   28   41 
Ashby                4.87   8  10  26  23   135.0  147   73  15   46   80 
Bynum*               4.95   4   8  31  25   131.0  130   72  19   53  104 
Howard               5.47   4   8  26  24   135.0  146   82  22   56   82 
Miadich              5.63   3   5  53   0    64.0   52   40   5   60   67 

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Giles*             lf  .281  .418  .527  145  512   86  144  35   5  27   90  113   64   8   6 
Klesko*            1b  .271  .375  .499  135  479   70  130  32   1  25   85   76   84   7   4 
Nevin              1b  .283  .358  .490  105  392   54  111  21   0  20   69   44   91   3   2 
Stanley*           cf  .286  .373  .438  130  500   78  143  28   6  12   62   64   96   9   7 
Burroughs*         3b  .303  .368  .422  132  469   60  142  22   5   8   54   40   67   7   1 
Loretta            2b  .305  .369  .422  136  498   57  152  25   3   9   60   46   54   3   3 
Buchanan           rf  .261  .336  .436  100  211   27   55  11   1   8   30   21   54   3   2 
Nady               rf  .272  .337  .421  122  430   64  117  15   2  15   59   36   86   4   2 
Hernandez          c   .265  .335  .423  141  471   62  125  24   1  16   66   40   73   0   0 
Sears*             1b  .264  .345  .401  121  424   54  112  24   2  10   52   47  119   2   1 
Vazquez*           ss  .276  .363  .362  128  450   59  124  21   3   4   43   60   84   8   4 
Greene             ss  .269  .322  .405  142  550   61  148  32   2  13   69   37  112   3   5 
Payton             lf  .259  .316  .410  145  532   59  138  24   4  16   67   38   67   5   5 
Wilson             c   .240  .332  .363   94  262   31   63  14   0   6   31   33   77   0   0 
Long*              lf  .258  .316  .394  155  573   73  148  30   3  14   69   46   85   5   4 
Kingsale#          cf  .260  .323  .369  116  388   46  101  20   5   4   35   33   61  15   7 
Castro#            2b  .283  .347  .336  107  428   55  121  14   3   1   35   38   51  31  16 
Ojeda              c   .232  .327  .359   62  142   12   33   6   0   4   17   19   26   1   1 
Quintero           c   .272  .312  .342  109  360   30   98  19   0   2   34   17   40   0   0 
Hunter             cf  .242  .310  .340   80  153   18   37  10   1   1   13   13   29   4   1 
Cirillo            3b  .234  .297  .333  123  411   38   96  21   1   6   41   31   53   5   3 
St. Rey            ss  .243  .287  .320  123  391   33   95  20   2   2   32   23   38   2   2