St. Louis Cardinals

This 2004 Cardinals preview is essentially an exercise in looking at the two principles that have guided the current management team ever since they arrived in St. Louis, and, at least in Tony La Russa's case, ever since he started managing in the major leagues.

Principle #1: Walt Jocketty has the mind of a statistician and the soul of a gambler.

Here's what I mean: The Cards have open spots in left field, second base, and all over the pitching staff except for closer. Jocketty's approach to all of these openings has been to invite a bunch of cheap players to camp with provisional contracts, and see who has a good spring. His belief seems to be that if he invites enough marginal candidates to camp, at least one of them will have a good year and solve his problem for cheap money. That is, he's thinking like a statistical oddsmaker.

Now, this isn't a stupid strategy, although it does run the risks of all gambling. The assorted Dustin Hermansons and Garret Stephensons who have passed through the Cardinal rotation in recent years have been acquired through this plan and have helped the Cards win a couple of division titles. Last year, though, Jocketty shot craps. Closer Jason Isringhausen was injured to open the season, and the Cards must have tried a dozen candidates to just get through two lousy months until Izzy came back and nobody was able to step up. Kiko Calero had a couple of good weeks, but got hurt himself. Cal Eldred did have a decent half-year, but it was the second half, when the team didn't need him to close games any more. The lack of a closer caused La Russa to overwork his staff aces, Matt Morris and Woody Williams, which sent Morris to the DL for a month while Williams was ordinary at best in the second half. Overall, the lack of that one winning gamble to close games in April, May, and June was without doubt what cost the Cards the division title.

Principle #2: Tony La Russa wins when he has three solid veteran starters, two or more of whom are having good years, and does not win when he doesn't have them, almost no matter what his offense looks like.

This is one of the strangest observations I have ever made about a manager, but it's been true since Tony's days in Oakland, and even going back to the White Sox, although his pitching staffs there were much less stable than in Oakland. Look at those A's teams, and which years they won. Tony built his starting rotations around a top three of, to pick the archetype, Mike Moore, Bob Welch, and Dave Stewart. If all three had good years, Tony won, regardless of the offense surrounding them. If only one had a good year, he lost, again despite some good offenses there. If two of them had good years, he usually won, but that was the one situation in which the offense made a difference. And if you're wondering whether this is just some sort of coincidence and not the result of any La Russa pitching staff plan, here's a quote from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch "Cardinals Notebook" column by Joe Strauss, March 16, 2004: "La Russa described Chris Carpenter's performance to date as worthy of a 'top of the rotation starter.' BY LA RUSSA'S DEFINITION (emphasis mine), that means among his top three."

Last year, the plan was for Morris, Williams, and Brett Tomko to be those top three. Before overwork took its toll, Morris and Williams were having good years, and Tomko wasn't, and the Cardinals, with a very strong offense, looked like they would win. As soon as Morris hit the DL and Williams hit mediocrity, things went to hell. That's Tony. It's how he wins and it's how he loses.

This year, things could look better. The original plan was pretty obvious; Sports Weekly had it all written up just as soon as the postseason got going. The Cards were going to get Greg Maddux to add to Morris and Williams, and Tony was going to be on his way to victory. No more Brett Tomko for St. Louis. However, the money for Maddux was supposed to come from trading away Jim Edmonds, moving J. D. Drew to center field. Then Edmonds had surgery. Walt Jocketty, gambling again, traded Drew (and Eli Marrero) for three young pitchers, which saved some money, and let Fernando Vina and Tino Martinez go, which saved some more, and then hoped that the Cardinal ownership would pony up the rest of what it would take to sign Maddux. Unfortunately, the Cardinal ownership had a different plan, called "let's cut the roster budget the year that Albert Pujols comes up for arbitration." That meant no Greg Maddux. And, in turn, that means that the Cardinal starting rotation is dependent on a complete recovery by Chris Carpenter, or some just blind luck out of a kid. Not what Tony La Russa had in mind, but, judging by the Joe Strauss quote above, it's what he's resigned himself to.

You might think that all this implies that I don't think the Cards have much of a chance in their division, with its new versions of the Astros and Cubs. That would be wrong. I figure the teams as about even. For one thing, although it is certainly true that the other two teams have gained ground on the Cards, the Cards had more talent on hand last year; they just couldn't fix the closer problem in time. That means that the Cards have some room to give before they drop down below the Stros or Cubs.

For another, the Cubs are heavily dependent on a group of young arms that have already had some trouble. Kerry Wood has been seriously hurt, and Mark Prior went on the DL for a while last year. Sure, Prior recovered, but he also pitched a lot and he's already in trouble now in the preseason. Wood actually wasn't all that good, and he worked hard, too. The Cubs' staff is not deep; if a couple of the kids get hurt, the team could have real problems. Their offense won't save them; it's no better than last year's. It's added Derrek Lee, but subtracted Kenny Lofton. Frankly, they needed the leadoff man and center fielder more.

The Astros have the opposite problem. Their pitching staff looks fine, if they can find anything resembling a closer, which they should be able to do. However, the core of their offense - Bagwell and Biggio - is aging rapidly, and worse, the hitter-friendly ballpark has masked that, so that the Astros probably think they have much more offense than they really do. They could easily win with their pitching, but they could also end up losing a lot of low-scoring road games. All in all, the Cardinals have a decent chance of sneaking in there, especially if Tony finds that third "top starter."

Of course, Tony also needs to settle on a second baseman, a left fielder, a leadoff man, and a second batter. Reggie Sanders essentially replaces Drew in right field, so that's no issue, but moving Pujols to first base, where Tino Martinez was last year, leaves a hole in left, similar to the one that Vina's departure leaves at second and at leadoff. This sounds much worse than it is, because Tony's only trying to replace Vina's bat and Martinez', and they were the guys who had bad years in 2003. On the other hand, the situation is complicated by the number of candidates for the jobs.

I should also include something for you guys who are into fantasy leagues. I am not really into that hobby, but I do know that it's important to figure out who among a team's marginal candidates is actually going to get playing time. So here are my best guesses as to who will make the Cardinal club as left fielders and second basemen, and who will actually start. I will list them by my estimate of their chances; that is, the first guy listed, Bo Hart, is the guy I figure will see the most playing time.

Bo Hart

I call situations like this "cream skimming." Bo Hart is not good enough to have a real career as a real starting second baseman in the majors. He's a very good AAA player. However, a good AAA player will have a few peak years, between ages 26 and 29, where he really can start, if not star, in the major leagues. The Cardinals, short of options, are going to skim those few years of cream off the top of Hart's career, and then discard him into the Pool of Rotating Journeymen. There are always a lot of these guys out there: career AAA players who are at their peaks. Finding them to fill holes cheaply is a major survival skill unless your owner is George Steinbrenner. Oh, yeah. If Hart loses the second base job to Marlon Anderson, he may not make the roster as the backup shortstop, as originally planned. See Hector Luna below.

Ray Lankford

There's a principle here: If you have a bunch of candidates for a job, root for the guy who, if he has a good year, will have the best "good year" among the candidates. Lankford's main contenders for the Cardinal left field job are Kerry Robinson and So Taguchi. If either of those two succeeds, you get a decent average, mediocre walks, good defense, and base-stealing speed, but no power and not really enough on-base percentage for a leadoff man. If Ray succeeds, you get a slightly lesser average, good walks, decent defense, good speed, and decent power. Both Tony La Russa and I will take the walks and power over the speed and defense. Remember, this is left field, not shortstop. Sure, Ray is much older than the others, but his top end is still much higher. He will get the first shot at the job.

Marlon Anderson

He hits lefty (as does Lankford), which the Cardinals need, and he plays, oddly enough, both left field and second base. If he doesn't steal the second base job from Hart, he will make the club as a backup. If he's the starting left fielder, it means that everyone else has failed.

Kerry Robinson

Robinson is desperate for the left field/leadoff man job, because it would give him a real major league career. If he can't pull it off, he will still be the backup center fielder of choice, and might be Lankford's glove caddy in left. Unless he falls apart, he will be on the roster.

Greg Vaughn

Likely to make the team as a pinch-hitter. Too old for left field any more, except in the smallest of ballparks.

Hector Luna

Tony loves Luna's glove as a backup shortstop, much less third baseman or keystone man. If either Hart or Anderson fails, Luna will play a lot off the bench. BTW, for those of you who don't know, this job was supposed to go to the journeyman Brent Butler, but Butler showed up fat and immobile and was in no condition to play even backup shortstop. The Cards have released him.

So Taguchi

If Robinson fails, Taguchi has the job, whatever it is. Otherwise, it's AAA ball for "So far, so-so."

Mark Quinn

A long shot. Might make the team as a backup if Vaughn is completely finished. Might win the left field job; he's the last of the really viable candidates. More likely will start the year in AAA and await developments.

Wilson Delgado

A last-ditch desperation left fielder if no one else has anything going on.

John Mabry

What happens if even Delgado fails.

John Gall The Cards' best AAA hitter, but he only plays first base. Tony, who does not like to move people around during the season, is not going to move Albert Pujols off of first base; he's made that very clear to everyone in sight. That means that Gall will open the season as the AAA first baseman, with instructions to get in as much practice as possible in left field, just in case. Don't be fooled here. The Cards are letting Gall play some left in spring training, as a head start, but Tony has publicly stated that Gall is not even close to being able to play the position in the majors. He is NOT a left field candidate! He is also too young and too good to plunk down on the major league bench as a pinch hitter.

Just to make sure you get this and don't get fooled, the Cardinals just cut Steve Cox, who can hit some himself, because he can't play anywhere other than first base. Pujols is NOT moving!

After all that, my projection, made with no great certainty, is that Bo Hart will open the season at second base, but is very vulnerable to at least platooning with Marlon Anderson, and Ray Lankford will open in left, with a bit more job security than Hart. Right now, there are rumors that the Cardinals will make a trade with the Angels for a second baseman. I have no idea if that's true, but neither Hart nor Anderson is exactly claiming the keystone job by force. Neither one of them has either hit or fielded a lick.

As for the lineup, Tony has dropped some hints, and they make perfect sense. The hints are that Reggie Sanders, brought in to replace J. D. Drew in right field, might hit at the top of the order. The other hint is that Ray Lankford may well do the same. That makes sense. Neither Hart nor Anderson gets on base much for a leadoff man, although Anderson does steal bases when he gets there. Sanders and Lankford do take their walks and get themselves on base and they can both still run some. The Cards don't need Sanders' or Lankford's power in the middle of the order; they still have the best offense in the division. An added feature, from Tony's point of view, is that Reggie hits righty, while Ray hits lefty. Tony likes to alternate the sides, to avoid the relief guys who can only get lefties out.

Those of you who remember the Cardinal lineup from last year may wonder why Edgar Renteria isn't going to lead off; he'd be fine there. Well, the reason is that Edgar, fascinated with RBIs, publicly says that he does not want to hit up top; he wants a RBI spot. Tony doesn't want to force the man to hit where he's unhappy, any more than Whitey Herzog did when Willie McGee expressed the same desire. So, Edgar hits sixth, right behind the real power guys. It's a waste, but you have to live with your players' emotions, too. Anyway, here's my projected lineup, subject, no doubt, to many changes:

RF  Reggie Sanders
LF  Ray Lankford
1B  Albert Pujols
CF  Jim Edmonds
3B  Scott Rolen
SS  Edgar Renteria
C  Mike Matheny
2B Bo Hart

As for pitchers, Tony has already announced his plans there. The rotation will be Morris, Williams, Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis, unless something awful happens. Dan Haren, Jason Simontacchi, and Alan Benes are competing for the spot starter job. Everyone else except Isringhausen is a middle reliever; whoever is pitching well will be the setup man until he blows cold.

Tony is talking about taking 12 pitchers with him when he breaks camp, which would leave the following best guess as to the entire roster: SP Matt Morris SP Woody Williams SP Chris Carpenter SP Jeff Suppan SP Jason Marquis SP Jason Simontachi (spot starter) RP Julian Tavarez RP Kiko Calero RP Ray King RP Cal Eldred RP Steve Kline CL Jason Isringhausen C Mike Matheny C Chris Widger 1B Albert Pujols 1B Greg Vaughn (pinch hitter) 2B Bo Hart 2B/OF Marlon Anderson 3B Scott Rolen SS Edgar Renteria SS/3B Hector Luna LF Ray Lankford CF Jim Edmonds CF/LF/RF Kerry Robinson RF Reggie Sanders That's what Cardinal fans are looking at right now. Best bet to crack the roster as a position player: So Taguchi. Best pitcher chance: Dan Haren. It's no longer the dominant collection of talent in the division, but it's not really behind the Astros and Cubs. It lacks the pitching focus of those two rosters, but it's competitive because of the offense. The Cardinals should be in the mix.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Pujols             lf  .359  .448  .667  162  619  137  222  43   2  48  151   90   69   3   3 
Edmonds*           cf  .281  .394  .580  141  459   84  129  40   2  31   97   81  129   2   4 
Rolen              3b  .284  .384  .512  155  574   95  163  41   3  28  100   82  107  11   4 
Renteria           ss  .316  .382  .457  156  576   84  182  41   2  12   78   60   59  26   7 
Gall               1b  .299  .353  .463  136  521   70  156  29   1  18   79   38   70   3   2 
Sanders            rf  .252  .324  .515  131  460   68  116  32   4  27   83   42  113  13   8 
Brown              cf  .275  .330  .436  100  367   51  101  22   2  11   50   27   79   9   3 
Porter*            rf  .276  .334  .422  120  410   57  113  25   4   9   49   33  113  15   7 
Witt*              1b  .267  .319  .440  135  464   58  124  24   1  18   69   30  128   1   1 
Seabol             3b  .269  .323  .435  110  402   45  108  24   2  13   56   28   88   2   2 
Anderson*          2b  .271  .333  .383  147  517   61  140  28   3   8   56   43   66  11   3 
Mabry*             1b  .233  .309  .423   89  163   18   38  10   0   7   24   15   35   1   1 
Hart               2b  .272  .323  .383  133  519   69  141  24   5   8   54   31  108   7   4 
Luna               ss  .267  .337  .331  130  453   76  121  13   2   4   40   44   59  18   6 
Quinn              rf  .235  .283  .396   89  328   34   77  21   1  10   42   19   60   3   3 
Robinson*          lf  .267  .305  .339  128  236   30   63   8   3   1   18   11   30   7   2 
Widger             c   .229  .286  .377   71  223   21   51  18   0   5   27   15   37   0   1 
McKay*             c   .240  .291  .355  103  366   37   88  16   1   8   41   23   58   1   1 
Matheny            c   .238  .309  .328  130  399   37   95  16   1   6   39   39   71   1   2 
Mahoney            c   .235  .282  .330   61  200   22   47  11   1   2   18   12   38   0   1 
Taguchi            cf  .235  .284  .330  125  349   38   82  19   1   4   33   21   54   7   5 
Delgado#           2b  .234  .282  .331  102  290   25   68  13   0   5   30   19   48   1   3 
Vaughn             lf  .175  .267  .322   96  332   36   58  17   1  10   37   39  101   5   4 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Isringhausen         2.90   3   1  55   0    59.0   46   19   2   20   63 
Morris               3.51  17   8  31  31   200.0  185   78  16   51  159 
Haren                3.77  14   7  30  30   172.0  171   72  17   33  115 
Rust                 3.88   5   3  50   0    58.0   53   25   2   26   43 
King*                3.97   4   2  79   0    59.0   54   26   4   23   45 
Journell             3.97   6   4  33  12    93.0   84   41   5   41   74 
Duff                 4.11   6   4  48   0    57.0   47   26   4   29   60 
Kline*               4.14   4   3  78   0    63.0   60   29   3   27   41 
Williams             4.21  14   9  31  31   199.0  201   93  23   50  135 
Marquis              4.28   8   5  32  19   124.0  118   59  12   47   97 
Lincoln              4.31   5   5  53   6    94.0   94   45  10   30   65 
Parrott              4.31  10   7  28  28   165.0  164   79  15   58  109 
Pearson*             4.31   4   3  56   2    71.0   71   34   7   23   44 
Wainwright           4.31   8   5  27  27   144.0  140   69  16   51  106 
Carpenter            4.34   9   7  27  27   166.0  163   80  18   56  121 
Tavarez              4.37   9   6  40  20   140.0  146   68   8   55   70 
Calero               4.42   7   6  26  16   112.0  104   55  12   47   95 
Eldred               4.50   6   4  59   0    64.0   57   32   8   29   63 
Suppan               4.50  13  11  32  32   206.0  214  103  23   64  121 
Martinez*            4.66   7  10  30  26   145.0  130   75  10   87  129 
Layfield             4.68   4   4  45   0    50.0   48   26   5   23   38 
Simontacchi          4.92   9   9  36  22   150.0  164   82  21   45   81 
Pearce               5.01   7   8  23  20   124.0  136   69  22   31   74 
Levrault             5.07   6   8  33  20   119.0  123   67  16   51   85 
Benes                5.11   6  11  29  22   141.0  145   80  19   63   94 
Creek*               5.71   2   3  53   0    52.0   49   33   8   36   53 
Ankiel*              7.00   2   3  17  10    45.0   40   35   7   47   46