Houston Astros Preview

The Astros are coming off one of the best, and in some ways the most exciting, seasons in their history. A lot of people - including me - thought that with the addition of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to their starting rotation, joining Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, the Astros had a very good chance to win the NL Central Division. Instead, the 'Stros never could get much going during the first half of the season. Clemens performed as advertised, winning his first nine decisions in a Houston uniform and reaching the break at 10-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. But the rest of the pitching was disappointing, as Miller and Pettitte both suffered injuries (both would start only 15 times during the season) and the replacements (Tim Redding, Brandon Duckworth, Pete Munro) were found wanting. The offense, suffered through slumps from Jeff Bagwell, Richard Hidalgo, and Morgan Ensberg, and with only Lance Berkman and Jeff Kent (and part-timer Mike Lamb) hitting much at all after April ended, the Astros felt it necessary to make some bold moves to shake up the team. The first shot was fired on June 17, when Houston unloaded Hidalgo's contract on the Mets for journeyman reliever David Weathers and young starter Jeremy Griffiths. One week later the Astros snared the big fish in the early trading market, obtaining free-agent-to-be Carlos Beltran from the Royals, sending closer Octavio Dotel (immediately passed to Oakland) and young catcher John Buck to KC in return. None of these changes helped very much. The Astros were 40-36 the day that Beltran joined the team, five and one-half games behind St. Louis, and also trailing the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds in the NL Central. They reached the break at .500, 44-44, still sitting fifth and 10 1/2 games behind the red-hot Cards. Manager Jimy Williams became the sacrificial lamb, fired and replaced by Phil Garner. Garner's hiring hardly awoke the Astros, either, as they lost four of five immediately after the break and continued at a .500 pace for most of the next three weeks.

Following the games of August 15, the Astros were 57-60, had fallen to 19 1/2 games behind the Cardinals, and 6 games behind the Cubs and Giants for the Wild Card. There was a glimmer of hope that day, though - on the verge of being swept by the Expos, the Astros rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth, with RBIs from Jason Lane, Jose Vizcaino, and Orlando Palmeiro, to pull out a 5-4 win. The Astros went to Philadelphia and swept the Phillies to move back to .500, and with a homestand coming up the team saw some glimmers of hope. The Cubs came to down and promptly won 2 of 3 to knock the Astros back under .500, but Houston rebounded with another three game sweep of the Phillies and headed to Chicago for a crucial four-game set. Game 1 went to the Cubs, 8-3. In Game 2, Roy Oswalt and Kerry Wood matched up for the second time in six days. In their previous matchup, both pitchers were ejected for hitting batters. In this one, tempers were much calmer - but Wood struggled early, allowing Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman, and Kent to take him deep in the first four innings, and the Astros were off and winging to a 15-7 win. Houston wouldn't lose again until September 9, rolling off 12 straight.

The streak was primarily the result an offensive explosion, with the Big Four of Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman, and Kent were the primary drivers. During the 12-game winning streak, the Astros scored at least six runs in every game until being held to five runs (all scored in the top of the first) in the last game of the string against the Reds. From August 17 (the first game in Philadelphia) to September 8 (the last game of the 12-game winning streak) - a 21-game stretch in which Houston was 18-3 - Beltran hit .347/.489/.813 with 9 HRs and 21 RBI; Bagwell hit .350/.464/.675 with 6 home runs and 17 RBI; Berkman hit .345/.444/.714 with 9 HR and 20 RBI; and Kent hit .301/.389/.687 with 7 home runs and 24 RBI.

This stretch of 21 games put the Astros into the middle of the wild-card race, but the team was still trailing the Cubs and Giants. Following the games of September 25, with eight days to go in the regular season, the wild-card standings looked like this:

The Astros were still three games back in the loss column with seven to play. So all they did was go out and win their last seven, getting some help from some other heroes:

• Backup catcher Raul Chavez drove in five runs to set up a win over Milwaukee.
• Ensberg and Biggio snapped slumps to fuel a six-run blast against Woody Williams.
• Brandon Backe and three relievers stifled the Cardinals in a 2-1 thriller.
• Six home runs - two each by Biggio and Kent - and a seven inning, 1-run performance by Oswalt clinched a tie for the Wild Card.
• Another solid outing by Backe (who chipped in with a two-out, two-run single as well) and the bullpen wrapped up the season, and a postseason spot.

Beltran contributed very little to this season-ending streak, going just 8-30 with 2 RBI over the last seven games. Of course, he'd get his due in the postseason, when he kept hitting home runs as the Astros dispatched the Braves in 5 and took a 3-2 lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS before the lack starting depth behind Clemens and Oswalt finally caught up with them. Nonetheless, the Astros had good reason to be satisfied with their season, and looked forward to more of the same.

The splurge of August and September masked the fact that Beltran, Berkman, and Kent were the Astros' only consistent hitters for most of the season - and the Astros will be starting 2005 without any of those three hitters, as Beltran and Kent left as free agents and Berkman will miss at least the first month after tearing the ACL in his right knee in a game of flag football in November. Biggio started well, but faded after the All-Star break, and Ensberg didn't get untracked until after the break, hitting no home runs at all until July after hitting 25 a season earlier. Bagwell, except for a strong April and the 21-game hot streak of August and September, was ordinary at best, with a right shoulder problem sapping his power and affecting his defense as well. The Astros had a large offensive hole behind the plate and (after Adam Everett's season was essentially ended in August by Claudio Vargas) at SS as well.

So without their key offensive performers from 2004, with Bagwell and Biggio pretty clearly in decline, with only a handful of younger players appearing ready to step in, and with significant offensive holes left unaddressed in the offseason, do the Astros have any hope for 2005? Was 2004 the last hurrah for a franchise that has been among the best in the NL for a decade? Read on…

I try to be as thorough as I can when writing these previews. However, the Astros seem to play their cards pretty close to the vest with the media, and as a result it is really hard to get information about the team from my vantage point in Raleigh. As I started to write this, I was sitting in my living room with the XM radio - a Christmas present from my wife Paula, far and away the best Christmas present I've ever gotten - tuned to an exhibition game between the Marlins and Astros (while the NCAA tournament was going on, mind you) just to try to find out something about the team. The articles about the team in the Houston Chronicle are short of any real information. Even the fan sites - now that Ray Kerby no longer seems to be doing much for Astros' Daily - are pretty bad; that is, except for Baseball Chick's blog, of course. I've done my best to follow Phil Garner's playing time decisions, to get a sense of who might make this team. Based on the patterns and what I've been able to glean from the online sources, here's how I see Houston shaping up.

Brad Ausmus is now 36, about to enter his 13th major league season. For a guy with a .255/.326/.354 career batting line, that's not too shabby. He doesn't hit. He doesn't draw walks (1/3 of his free passes were intentional) He threw out only 26.4% of basestealers last year. It's hard for me to believe that his pitcher-handling ability makes up for the negatives. But the Astros still believe. This might be the end of the line for him, especially if he drops much below what ZiPS projects for him. The Astros don't have any real catching prospects in the pipeline, so they need to get whatever they can out of Ausmus.

His shoulder is gone, his once-outstanding defense at 1B a distant memory; he can't throw at all any more. He managed 27 home runs last year, but his slugging percentage dropped below .500 for the first time since 1995. His strikeout rate inched back up last year. He still draws enough walks and hits for a high enough average to have some value, but he's an old Jeff Bagwell instead of the Bagwell of old. He's supposed to be retiring at the end of 2005, although he needs just 54 home runs to reach 500. At age 37, does he have another decent year in him? He did start 2004 fairly well, and recovered some of his power toward the end of last year, so I do see some bounce in him. ZiPS seems to me to be pessimistic, and he could very well have an age-37 "last hurrah" kind of year, bouncing back to around an .870 OPS or so. He was a very good player for a very long time, and if he does retire at the end of the year it seems to me that he'll be getting out at just the right time, before people forget how good he really was.

What are the Astros doing with Craig Biggio? Chris Burke is their best prospect, coming off a monster .315/.391/.507 year at New Orleans (which is a tough place to hit normally). At 25, he has nothing left to prove with another year in AAA. With Berkman's injury, the Astros are short of outfielders anyway, and there's no obvious reason for Garner not to keep Biggio in LF, or (maybe) move him back to CF. But except for one minor league game, Biggio has played 2B all spring, taking at-bats away from Burke. It's not as though Burke has been hitting poorly, either - he's hitting .300 and slugging .567 as I write that. What gives here?

From day one, I've had the sense that Garner doesn't particularly care for Burke. With Willy Taveras and Luke Scott emerging in the outfield, and Biggio's less-than-stellar outfield defense (being charitable), Garner has the perfect excuse to avoid starting Burke at 2B. Burke's earned a shot, and I think the power surge from '04 is real; I think he'd beat his ZiPS projection playing every day. But from the way that Garner is using Biggio and divvying up the OF playing time, I have a funny feeling that Burke might be ticketed for another trip to AAA. At least this year he'll be closer to Houston, since the AAA franchise is now in Round Rock instead of New Orleans.

Biggio, like Bagwell, also got off to a good start in 2004. Unlike Bagwell, he faded away in the second half and never really recovered; he hit just .256/.308/.451 after the break. ZiPS sees him falling off the cliff this year; at age 39, that's a real possibility, although I think he'll hit for more power than ZiPS does. I can't believe he'll last an entire year at 2B without getting hurt, and then we'll see if Garner plays Burke or does something like putting Eric Bruntlett there.

After Everett had his left wrist broken by Vargas in early August, except for pinch-running appearances he was done for the rest of the season. At the time of the injury, Everett had taken a step forward in batting average, but his walk rate and isolated power dropped off, so he was no more productive overall in '04 than he was in '03. Everett is entering his age-27 year, and I'm sure the Astros would like to see a Jack Wilson-like breakout. I don't see it; while Everett's major league numbers bear a superficial similarity to the Buc shortstop's first couple of years, Wilson's minor league numbers were much better. A modest improvement seems reasonable, perhaps to .330/.400 OBP/SLG; ZiPS is a little too pessimistic. Everett is a good defensive shortstop.

Ensberg's 2004 can only be classified as disappointing. The 29-YO third baseman, coming off a year in which he hit 25 home runs and slugged .531, failed to hit a single long ball for three months, and wound up with only 10 while losing 120 points from his slugging percentage. Ensberg did improve dramatically in the second half, hitting .299/.349/.477 after the break, and ZiPS sees some bounce back for him. I see more bounce for him, perhaps to something close to his second-half numbers. The Astros will probably take that.

The only sure thing in the outfield at the start of the season is that Jason Lane will be somewhere. Lane, 28, has been a bench player, mostly a fifth OF/PH/defensive replacement in his time in Houston. Last year he got into 107 games but had just 156 PAs, hitting .272/.348/.463 in his limited appearances at the dish. That's pretty good, actually; it is really, really hard to keep sharp when you're only getting occasional PAs here and there. His minor league hitting numbers were excellent, capped by a huge season at Round Rock in 2001, and he's been waiting patiently for his chance ever since. He's shown some patience at the plate over his career, he typically makes good contact at the plate and doesn't swing and miss a whole lot, and I think he'll easily beat his ZiPS projection given regular PT.

The other two OF slots are uncertain. Originally, the Astros thought that Biggio and Orlando Palmeiro would flank Lane at the start of the season, with Palmeiro returning to his accustomed fourth OF slot when Berkman came back. But a couple of younger players named Willy Taveras and Luke Scott are in the process of upsetting those plans, and now it's possible that those two will join Lane in the opening day OF.

Taveras and Scott are linked in a couple of ways. Both were Indians' prospects. Taveras was a rule 5 pick in 2004, as I noted earlier, and the Astros liked him a lot, and wanted to keep him, but didn't want to burn a roster slot for the entire season. The team worked a deal with the Tribe in which they kept Taveras, and added Scott, in exchange for 2003 starting pitcher Jeriome Robertson. Right now, that deal looks like a steal - and if Taveras and Scott earn starting jobs, and play as they have been playing in the spring, the deal could rival Bagwell-for-Andersen as the biggest heist in Astros' history.

Scott, who will be 27 in June, didn't look like anything particularly special out of college. He was 24 when he got his first taste of minor league ball in 2002, and put up decent but hardly spectacular numbers for an overage prospect in his first two seasons. At Class A Salem (Va) in 2004, he started off the season pretty well, showing an improved batting eye. When the Astros promoted him to Round Rock in mid-season, he exploded on the Texas League, hitting 19 HRs in 63 games and posting a .298/.401/.654 line. Houston added him to their 40-man roster in the offseason, and no one really expected him to have a shot at a job entering camp. All he's managed to do in spring training is hit .395, slug .868, drill 4 home runs, drive in 12 runs, and play all three outfield positions passably well, sometimes very well. It's hard to imagine a circumstance under which he won't be on the opening day roster at this point, probably starting. I'm a bit cautious on him, because he did hit more HRs than doubles at Round Rock and I'm always leery that it's more indicative of a park effect than a real surge when that happens. But he's certainly earned the chance to show it's no fluke.

Taveras has also performed well this spring, hitting .317 and stealing seven bases so far. At age 23, he's shown the ability to draw a walk in the minors, but not much pop. Players who have this skill set are difficult to figure. Sometimes they take the Luis Castillo career path and piece together a decent career, but most of the time pitchers figure out that they can't be hurt too badly when the ball is put into play, and just knock the bat out of their hands. Taveras is certainly fast enough to add some value by legging out infield hits, and Garner loves his speed in CF. The Astros are proceeding with care here; they've been giving Taveras a fair shot, but aren't handing him the job just yet. Scott has been seeing some time in CF lately. My guess right now is that Taveras will probably start the season in AAA.

Palmeiro is a generic fifth outfielder, stretched as a starter and even as a fourth OF; like Taveras, he has almost no power. He's now 36, and only twice has he had as many as 300 ABs in his career. If Taveras doesn't make the roster, he'll probably open in the outfield with Lane and Scott (although Mike Lamb could be posted in LF, too).

Trenidad Hubbard is also in camp as a non-roster invitee. He'll probably make the team if Taveras does not because the Astros don't have much right-handed hitting on the bench, but he's basically a right-handed hitting version of Palmeiro.

Berkman can't return too soon for the Astros.

The backup catcher is Raul Chavez. Chavez is 32 (I didn't realize he was that old) and has never even had a sniff at a regular job. He's not a hitter, either. Dax Norris, a 32-YO minor league veteran, is still hanging around in the major league camp, and might also still have a shot as the backup catcher.

The primary backup infielders will be Mike Lamb and Jose Vizcaino. Lamb will cover the corners and also fill in as a LF occasionally if needed; Vizcaino will back up the middle. Lamb is 29 (30 in August) and had an excellent season in 2004, frequently spelling Ensberg against RHP and hitting .288/.356/.511. If Ensberg continues to struggle, he could wind up platooning again. It's too bad that the catching experiment never took; that would be a good way to get his bat in the lineup more often. ZiPS looks a tad low for him.

Vizcaino is 37. The switch-hitter is better from the left side of the plate, which doesn't help the imbalance off the bench. He had a pretty good season for him, about in line with his career totals. He played a lot more than the Astros hoped because of Everett's injury and an earlier injury to Kent; the Astros would probably like to see his time more like it was in 2003 than 2004.

Palmeiro and possibly Hubbard are the likely outfield backups until Berkman returns. If Biggio ends up back in the outfield, Eric Bruntlett could be the choice for the last roster spot, since he and Lamb can also play in the outfield. Bruntlett isn't much of a hitter, either.

The Astros scored 803 runs in 2004, tied for fifth in the NL. They’re not going to make up Beltran's missing offense, and the loss of Berkman for the first month plus of the season is also going to be difficult to make up. But I think most of the Astros' remaining players are probably going to do better than their projections, and if Scott is for real and Burke gets to play the Astros' offense might be better than people think. I see the likely range of this offense as currently constituted being around 740-750 runs - but it has the potential to be better than that.

Oswalt, at age 27, is the designated ace of this staff, Clemens's presence notwithstanding. He was a bit more hittable in 2004 than he'd been in the past, and his walk rate inched up a bit, which pretty much explains the uptick in his ERA. He's got a good fastball/slider combo, and a great offspeed curve that he uses to rack up a lot of his strikeouts. He is also not afraid to come inside on hitters, which got him ejected against the Cubs last year in one of the most noteworthy beanbrawls of the year. He lasted until the 23rd round of the 1996 draft largely because he's relatively small (6-0, 170) and he doesn't overpower you - but what he throws is plenty good enough. ZiPS seems to be about right, maybe a little pessimistic.

Old Man River just keeps rolling along. Clemens, 42, won his seventh Cy Young award, and his first in the NL, by going 18-4 in his first Astro go-round, posting a 2.98 ERA, and striking out 218 in 214 1/3 innings. His walk rate jumped on his move to the NL, which is the only real negative thing about his season. Clemens still has his 95-MPH fastball and devastating splitter, and like Oswalt, lets the batters know that he owns the inside of the plate when he needs to do that. ZiPS predicts a fairly substantial decline, but I think that Clemens, like Ryan, will defy the odds and continue to pitch well; I don't see him losing much at all. Roger is a conditioning fanatic, which should also help him retain his value.

Pettitte started 15 times last year. He missed three weeks in early April after getting racked by the Giants in his first start, pitched very well on his return until straining his left forearm and missing another month, and came back and pitched decently again until going down for the count with a torn left flexor tendon in mid-August. Pettitte, who will be 33 in June, is primarily a fastball/sinker pitcher who can hit the low 90s with his hard stuff, but relies on the sinker to get grounders. His walk rate jumped up in 2004; he needs to throw strikes to be effective, so that's a concern. He has made only two starts so far in spring training, but appears to be on track to be in the opening rotation. The question for him is health; he's had shortened seasons in two of the last three. If he's healthy, he'll likely put up numbers similar to his abbreviated 2004.

Backe, who turns 27 early in April, was acquired for Geoff Blum in a minor deal before 2004, a move which paid dividends for the Astros' beleaguered pitching staff down the stretch. Backe opened 2004 in AAA, but was called up early to fill a bullpen slot, then went back to New Orleans in early June. When Pettitte went down for the final time in August, the Astros turned to Backe, and Backe delivered big-time. In his first start, he shut down the Cubs on four hits over seven innings for the only win in the three-game home set in August, and after getting rocked by the Cubs in his next outing (the 8-3 loss the day before the 12-game winning streak started), he allowed 1 run over 13 innings in his next two outings, both against the Reds. His last two starts were crucial wins against the Cardinals and the WC-clincher against the Rockies. He then came out and won the critical game 3 against Atlanta in the NLDS, allowing 2 runs in six innings. Then, after a pedestrian outing to start the NLCS, he came back for Game 5 and blanked the Redbirds on one hit over eight innings, matching Woody Williams pitch-for-pitch, but winding up with a no-decision. Backe's late-season performance earned him a clear shot at the #4 job, and although his spring training has been a bit rough, he's still pencilled into that slot. Backe throws a low-90s fastball and a cutter, but relies on his slider and curveball as his out pitches. Because Backe pitched mostly in relief before 2004, even in the minors, ZiPS doesn’t know what to do with him. I think ZiPS is far too pessimistic; I see Backe giving the Astros somewhere around league-average pitching in the #4 slot.

The fifth starter's job appeared to be Carlos Hernandez's to lose coming into spring training - and lose it he has apparently done, as he's been optioned to AAA. Non-roster RHP Dave Burba and returnees Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding are in the mix for the #5 job. Burba had a decent season as a middle reliever for Milwaukee in 2004 before being sent to the Giants for the stretch drive and getting hurt in his second outing in SF. Burba has not pitched well in his last couple of ST outings. Redding started 2004 in the rotation, but pitched his way out of it, and was finally sent to New Orleans in August. He pitched poorly in relief on his return in September, and probably will open 2005 in the pen if he makes the team. Duckworth got some starting chances after Pettitte's injury and Redding's flop, also pitched poorly in six starts (7.40 ERA averaging under 4 IP/start), and was also eventually exiled to New Orleans. He has pitched fairly well this spring, with a 2.45 ERA and an excellent start earlier this week.

One other candidate for the slot is rookie Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio was acquired along with Duckworth and Taylor Buchholz in the Billy Wagner deal, and he has impressed Garner and GM Tim Purpura so far. The 24-YO Astacio was 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA at AA Round Rock in 2004, fanning 185 hitters in 176 innings, holding hitters to a .238 BA and allowing just 155 hits and 12 HRs - a pretty impressive performance for the Texas League. He followed that up by going 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA in the Domincan Winter League, pitching mostly in relief. Astacio hasn't allowed a run in three ST outings (including one start), fanning 8 in 7 1/3 innings while walking just 2 and allowing 4 hits. He's still something of a longshot, as the Astros are reluctant to commit to adding a significant amount of youth to this team, but he's the only #5 starter candidate with any upside. I suspect he'll open at AAA, but will get the first shot when Duckworth or Burba fails or someone gets hurt. Right now, I think Duckworth is a shaky leader in the clubhouse.

The top four pitchers in this rotation are the equal of anyone in the division, assuming everyone is healthy.

Fun fact: Lidge had nearly as many strikeouts (157, an NL record for relievers) as he did balls put into play (164, excluding bunts). After opening the season as Octavio Dotel's setup man, Lidge became the closer when Dotel left in June, and converted 28 of 30 opportunities after taking over the job (29 of 33 overall). Lidge allowed just 9 runs in his 45 appearances after becoming the closer, for an ERA of 1.49 - a run less than his 2.45 ERA at the time he became the closer. Lidge is 28, a fastball/slider guy; his fastball typically sits in the mid-90s with a ton of movement, and his slider is also alive. He and Gagne are numbers 1 and 1A among NL closers; I don't know how you pick between them.

This isn’t a particularly impressive lot. The 26-YO Qualls inherits Dan Miceli's role as the #1 setup guy behind Lidge. Qualls started throughout most of his minor league career before coming up in August and earning a key role in Houston's postseason bullpen, going 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA and one save. He melted down in the postseason (as did most of Houston's second-line relievers), blowing a lead in the NLDS and then losing Game 1 of the NLCS - although in fairness most of the damage was a result of bad defense and a bad pitch to Jim Edmonds by Chad Harville after Qualls had left the game. He's a sinker-slider pitcher, an extreme groundballer and not a big strikeout pitcher, with a high-80s fastball; like many such pitchers, he had a big platoon split last year. He sharpened his control last year, which hastened his arrival in the majors; he'll need to hold that control in order to be successful. It took him two years to get past AA. Because he started in the minors, ZiPS doesn't really know what to make of him, either; I think he'll be better than that, and better than Dan Miceli was in that role, but probably not a whole lot better.

Gallo and Franco and maybe Norton will be the situational lefties in the pen. It's a mark of how little Gallo pitches in key situations that he has just three wins and 2 blown save opportunities in 101 career appearances. The Astros have kept him in low-leverage roles throughout his brief major league career, and there is no reason to think he's going to step into a bigger job. Franco has got the inside track on the situational lefty job, but he's been pretty bad this spring, he was pretty bad last year, his strikeout rate is starting to fall off the cliff, and he is 44. I think he's done. Norton is an NRI whose career to date has been thoroughly unimpressive; he walks too many guys and he doesn't get left-handed hitters out consistently.

The back end of the bullpen will be filled by Harville, Springer, and Wheeler, and possibly Travis Driskill and/or Redding. Of this group, Wheeler is the one most likely to be used in key situations after Lidge and Qualls; he did pitch well for Houston after coming over from the Mets, and he did do a good job in the postseason, unlike most of the bullpen. He has a low-90s fastball and a decent change, but his breaking stuff is pedestrian, and he's all too hittable all too often. Harville has a decent fastball but no good secondary pitches; Springer has a power low-90s fastball with some sink to it and a decent curve, but he's 36, and also has problems with his command. None of these guys is likely to make a big splash, and the Astros are going to need innings from their starting pitchers, because it'll be hit or miss with these guys.

The Astros allowed 698 runs last year, fifth best in the NL. Their ability to match or beat that depends on having a healthy Pettitte all year and someone emerging to claim the fifth starting position and giving the Astros at least league-average pitching out of that slot. I don't see any slippage likely coming from the front of the rotation (assuming Pettitte is healthy) or from Lidge, and I also think that Backe will be an improvement over what the Astros got from their #4 starters last year. But the bullpen, apart from Lidge, is loaded with guys about whom you have to have at least some doubts about their ability to pitch well, and if the Astros find themselves in a position where they have to rely on the likes of Harville and Springer to get them through games, they'll be in serious trouble. Houston has an early stretch where they play 32 games in 33 days, so they'll need to use their #5 starter a lot early, and he's going to have to give them good innings out of the gate. The Astros have been impressed with youngsters Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez in ST, and Jared Gothreaux has been steadily moving up the chain and getting guys out (although he doesn't have the quality stuff of the other two), but they'd really like to get those guys more minor league experience before they have to start relying on them.

All things considered, I think the Astros will end up somewhere around where they were last year. They had really great pitching from the front end of their staff, really bad pitching from the back end. That's not likely to change.

I still see the Astros as an above-.500 team. The offense is going to slip, but the front-line pitching is still very good, Lidge is great, and there are still enough bats to put the Astros on the plus side of the ledger. If enough things go right - Scott keeps hitting, Burke takes over the 2B job at some point, Berkman comes back quickly and well - the team could win 90 games again, but something like 87-75 seems to me to be more likely.

The real problem for this team will come when Bagwell and Biggio retire. The Astros have a shortage of impact position player prospects, other than Burke, and it's not clear how they'll fill those holes. Bagwell and Biggio aren't what they were, but they're better than what many teams have, and better than the potential replacements that the Astros have. I don't think the Astros will drop off the cliff this year - but next year, when one or both of Bagwell and Biggio are finally gone, that prospect becomes a very real possibility.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Lidge        2.97   8   3  64   2   103.0   82   34   33  130   8 
Oswalt       3.35  17   9  32  32   215.0  199   80   55  189  16 
Pettitte*    3.48  13   8  26  26   163.0  155   63   42  136  13 
Clemens      3.75  14   9  32  32   204.0  187   85   71  196  19 
Astacio      4.36  11  11  27  26   159.0  160   77   56  129  19 
Burba        4.70   4   6  39  13   115.0  124   60   44   72  12 
Driskill     4.74   6   8  32  15   129.0  143   68   31   81  21 
Gallo*       4.81   2   2  69   0    58.0   62   31   22   41   8 
Harville     4.86   3   3  59   0    63.0   62   34   32   54   8 
Hodge        4.92   4   5  49   0    75.0   82   41   22   56  13 
Norton*      4.98   3   4  69   0    65.0   64   36   38   47   5 
Bost         5.02   2   3  48   0    61.0   64   34   25   49  10 
Qualls       5.07   6   8  39  23   158.0  167   89   73  105  19 
Nieve        5.18   8  12  27  27   153.0  159   88   82  111  18 
Wheeler      5.19   4   6  43  12   111.0  122   64   38   80  20 
Franco*      5.20   3   4  50   0    45.0   48   26   20   35   7 
Wendell      5.22   2   3  45   0    50.0   57   29   23   22   5 
Griffiths    5.25   6   9  29  27   151.0  167   88   64   91  21 
Buchholz     5.26   5   7  23  21   118.0  130   69   40   88  23 
Duckworth    5.37   6   9  32  23   129.0  136   77   55  108  24 
Backe        5.40   5   9  44  13   110.0  116   66   55   86  17 
Hernandez*   5.52   6   9  30  29   150.0  163   92   77   99  22 
Fussell      5.89   4   8  34  20   133.0  147   87   76   90  21 
Lugo         5.91   3   7  38  10    99.0  106   65   60   75  16 
Springer     5.91   1   2  34   0    35.0   38   23   19   27   7 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Berkman#     lf  .306  .436  .551 159 559 171 38  3 31 105 104 124 105  7  6 
Bagwell      1b  .263  .375  .452 154 562 148 27  2 25  90  86  96 118  6  4 
Huffman      1b  .295  .365  .406 139 515 152 32  2  7  71  59  54  86  6  4 
Burke        2b  .284  .352  .401 139 524 149 23  4 10  90  51  52  72 25 19 
Biggio       cf  .245  .310  .384 148 591 145 38  1 14  83  64  40 105  7  3 
Ensberg      3b  .279  .356  .437 129 412 115 19  2 14  58  58  48  57  6  4 
Scott*       lf  .242  .316  .437 127 426 103 27  1 18  66  63  44 102  4  2 
Coolbaugh    3b  .250  .325  .497 108 364  91 21  0 23  58  65  38 101  2  2 
Everett      ss  .271  .326  .377 128 443 120 20  3  7  69  43  29  71 11  2 
Conrad#      2b  .241  .312  .371 136 474 114 26  3 10  70  53  46 101  9  5 
Lane         rf  .280  .345  .470 120 336  94 26  1 12  51  53  32  62  4  2 
Rivera*      1b  .263  .313  .438 122 384 101 22  0 15  46  54  25  63  5  3 
Lamb*        3b  .277  .355  .446 112 307  85 15  2 11  44  45  37  57  1  1 
Whiteman     ss  .263  .311  .366 114 445 117 17  1  9  55  49  28  87  5  6 
Bruntlett    ss  .241  .319  .332 129 431 104 17  2  6  68  40  47  77 15  9 
Wesson       cf  .260  .305  .382 108 393 102 21  3  7  45  42  23  85  9  4 
Hill         lf  .261  .316  .377 109 371  97 18  2  7  47  41  27  83  6  5 
Riggs#       3b  .238  .324  .364 106 357  85 23  2  6  47  39  43  66  2  2 
Taveras      cf  .277  .333  .315 115 390 108  8  2  1  66  27  30  79 49 25 
Logan*       cf  .247  .290  .352 120 409 101 21  2  6  40  38  22  63 11 10 
Quintero     c   .277  .310  .372 100 347  96 21  0  4  34  39  15  38  0  1 
Ausmus       c   .231  .297  .305 132 420  97 14  1  5  39  37  38  60  2  3 
Vizcaino#    ss  .261  .299  .353 124 329  86 17  2  3  31  30  19  33  1  2 
Jimerson     cf  .212  .255  .342 125 439  93 17  2 12  63  44  22 153 26 21 
Chavez       c   .237  .275  .335  96 316  75 17  1  4  30  33  14  47  0  2 
Gipson       cf  .266  .332  .336  92 241  64 10  2  1  36  19  23  50 10  5 
Palmeiro*    lf  .257  .335  .328 120 241  62  9  1  2  28  23  27  24  3  3 
McLemore#    ss  .224  .318  .299  87 268  60 12  1  2  29  25  37  51  3  6 
Gimenez#     c   .213  .256  .300 104 343  73 11  2  5  37  31  17  69  1  1 
Tonis        c   .216  .272  .292  85 291  63 14  1  2  29  23  20  56  1  0 
Tremie       c   .211  .276  .314  75 223  47  6  1  5  23  22  19  39  0  1