NL Schedule Strength

In part one we took a quick cut look at the winners and losers of 2003 AL schedule derby. Today we’ll work through the NL, starting in the East.

A lot of the winter’s hot stove action happened in Philadelphia. The Phils uncharacteristically broke open the bank accounts and landed the season’s premiere free agent slugger, signed a viable alternative to fill their 3B vacancy, and accepted the charity work of the divisional rivals when no frontline pitcher would ante up. The Phillies’ activity, combined with the Braves core rebuild of the pitching staff, generated a lot talk about a changing of the guard in the division. There was even talk of a Mets resurgence, what Tom Glavine playing red rover on over to Shea. For the second season in a row, the hip prediction for the NL East is a toppling of the Braves 11/12 year run of dominance.

Looking at the schedules, people might want to rethink those predictions. The Braves have the easiest schedule in the division, and by a significant margin. In interleague play the division matches up with the AL West, but the only team in the division that plays all of the AL West teams is Montreal. The Braves get three each against Oakland and Seattle, but instead of facing down the defending World Champions, Atlanta gets an "extra" set of three vs. Pittsburgh. Florida skips out on Seattle, picking up three with Milwaukee instead. New York swaps Oakland for Milwaukee and Philly get a series with the Reds rather than the Rangers. The end result is a net gain for Atlanta, Florida and the Mets: they trade three games against contender for three against certifiable laughingstocks.

Some of the disparity is made up with the "fill out the rest of the interleague slate" games. Florida’s advantage closes a bit when they face down Boston for three, for example, although the Phils get those same Red Sox as well. The Mets, due to the cash cow home-and-home series with the Yankees, don’t get much of a break at all. Philadelphia owns the divisions toughest over all slate; they have only one real patsy series, against the Orioles.

The team that comes off with the most obvious advantage is the one team that most people probably want to see go away. The Braves, perennial post-season participants, feast on an interleague schedule of the abysmal. While the rest of the division have at least three games with either Boston or the Yankees (if not more), Atlanta gets six with Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Their advantage is, in fact, as noticeable as the Twins’ advantage over the White Sox. If, as many people believe, the Phillies and Braves are essentially pushes in terms of talent, and if both play healthy all year, it’s very likely that the Braves will win the NL East by a couple or three games. Not because they’re a better team, but because Pedro Martinez or Derek Lowe are likely going to be harder to hit than Joe Kennedy or Victor Zambrano, or because Rocco Baldelli isn’t quite as polished a hitter as Hideki Matsui. This doesn’t bother me too much, because I’m a Braves fan, but I can see where Chris Dial might be a bit bothered.

The NL Central lines up as follows.

Please, for the love of God, don’t make me try to explain that. It is, how do you say, [firetrucked] beyond