Cincinnati Reds

Last March, Chris Dial opened his preview of the Reds’ upcoming season with a breakdown of the 2002 squad’s hapless performance against inter-league opponents (and the Arizona Diamondbacks). Noting the horrendous pitching and the loss of Austin Kearns at the end of the previous year, he wrapped up his intro thusly; "Hopefully, this season, the pitchers can hold up and the young players like Kearns and Dunn can grow." Going into 2004, fans of this once-proud franchise might repeat those same words as mantra, but it’s a fine line where tenacious hope devolves into delusion.

It is hard to imagine a scenario in which the 2004 Cincinnati Reds are competitive. If absolutely everything breaks right for this team, they’re an offensively solid squad whose offensive pitching relegates them to a "tough division" fourth place finish. If even the slightest thing goes wrong, Cincinnati is looking at a team so abysmally bad as to give the ’62 Mets and ’03 Tigers some company in the Hall of Modern Suck. Given the fact that the "absolutely everything breaks right" scenario is dependent upon both Ken Griffey, Jr. and Barry Larkin being healthy and productive all year and some combination of Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson or Brandon Claussen turning into a rotational anchor, smart money is on the suck. Yes, Reds fans can hope for the best. They can look forward to maybe, hopefully beating out the Brewers for fourth place, and with a little divine intervention they might see a run similar that put together by the 2003 Royals, but most likely their collective energies are better spent lobbying ESPN Classic to just re-run the 1975 season in its entirety.

With that said, the Reds are not a team completely devoid of talent. They have a few of positional players who could post top-quintile-by-position seasons this year, a couple of whom are young enough to be considered a core worth building around. But what they have in positional strength is more than made up for by the truly heinous rotation the team is likely going to depend on to prevent other teams from scoring at will.

2003 marked the third year of Jason LaRue’s fulltime catching gig. For the third year in a row he hit for a little power when compared to his position, got on base enough not to be embarrassing and scraped out a batting average good enough to keep him in the lineup four out of every five days. Combined with his exceptional defensive reputation and cannon arm, he should maintain the position easily. At age 29, LaRue is not going to turn into Johnny Bench any time soon (or ever, really,) but he is a capable bat to have in the lower third of the lineup and he dons the catcher’s gear as well as any player in the majors. He’s never caught more than 121 games in the bigs, though. This wasn’t much of a problem when his primary caddy was Kelly Stinnett, but Cincy may need to up LaRue’s appearances by 10 or 20 games this year as Stinnett has moved on and Corky Miller is now the primary backup. In three years as a Sunday catcher Miller has posted one decent year (2001 as a rookie), one Jason LaRue clone year (2002) and one mostly abysmal year (2003.) At 27 years he may have a little improvement in him, but all told, he’s very close to being "what he is." All in all, catching should be a plus position for the Reds in 2004, but not by a wide margin. If anything happens to LaRue for an extended period of time, all bets are off.

If Sean Casey were stock, you probably should have sold by now. A brief glance at his career suggests an early bloom at age 24 with a steady decline setting immediately thereafter. Conventional SABR-wisdom dictates that, as a 28 year old, Casey should get the benefit of the doubt for "bouncing back," but when every aspect of a player’s game has been in decline since 1999 you might want to consider chucking conventional wisdom regardless of where it comes from. Granted, Casey did post something of a rebound in 2003 after bottoming out the previous year, but a 758 OPS from a 1B looks good only when compared to the backup middle-infielder production (261/334/362) he posted in 2002. Can Sean Casey rekindle his early glory, resurrect himself and post another 330/400/520 line? Sure, anything’s possible. But it would probably be foolish to bet your team’s future on it. If the Reds could find anyone to take Casey’s contract they would deal him and install Adam Dunn at first. As of yet, no other team has been foolish enough to take Casey off of their hands.

Jimenez is a guy you want to root for. Anyone who returns to play above average major league baseball after breaking his neck should be on your cheer list. A solid defender (despite a mixed reputation) who posts 290/340/400 from the middle infield, Jimenez finally has a shot as the every day guy. He’s bounced around a bit but looks to settle in as the everyday second sacker in Cincinnati this year. At least Reds fans should hope for as much, because his primary backup is going to be either Juan Castro or Ray Olmedo. No team excised of Bob Boone’s managerial skills should ever have to see either of those guys play regularly. That would just be cruel.

Brandon Larson, on the strength of 51 at bats in 2002, made Aaron Boone expendable in the Reds eyes. That’s kind of sad, because outside of those 51 at bats, Brandon Larson has been an abysmal major league baseball player. In 2001 he hit 121/171/182 in 33 at bats. In 2003 he hit 101/212/147 in 89 at bats. Think about that for a minute. Now think about the fact that this is the Reds’ starting 3B for 2004. One assumes that the organization thinks Larson will bounce back, because all they have behind him is the ever-present Juan Castro (who out hit Larson two out of the last three years) and marginal prospect Edwin Encarnacion in Dayton. Now, the Reds obviously feel Larson’s future will be more similar to his 2002 than his 2001 or 2003, but that is an awfully risky assumption to make. Larson might turn in a decent year as the fulltime 3B, but he just as likely might be one of the worst players in baseball.

Oh, and his defense is inadequate too.

[Small sample size, Sammy? Larson got a shot for all of two weeks and has been much better in the minors since his eye surgery - DS]

Barry Larkin is done. D-U-N, done. Fork him, slice him and plate him up. Speak glowingly about his career, his under appreciated peak in the mid-90s, how he’s likely to get slighted in Hall of Fame consideration because of the superstar shortstops that exploded during the decline phase of his career, anything you like. But don’t try to make excuses for playing him in 2004. The reasons he’ll be on the field come opening day are 1) Felipe Lopez hasn’t hit well enough to take the old man’s job and 2) the politics of fading superstars with hefty contracts often override common sense. With that said, the only good option for the Reds this year is for Lopez to break out, because otherwise it’s the washed up, former glory tour at SS this year.

Or Juan Castro. Lopez at least has an upside. Barry Larkin does not. Barry Larkin will not rebound. He will not bounce back. He is 40, and he is not Julio Franco, and he is done.

Speaking of Dunn, someone might want to grab this one, casually pull him aside, and mention the perils of the Sean Casey career path. Back in 2001 Adam Dunn was the most amazing prospective slugger anyone in baseball could recall seeing. Two years later and he’s barely posting a BA above the Mendoza line, though he is still walking a good deal. But his slugging is down to levels questionable for a corner outfielder and his tendency to swing and miss doesn’t help. Still only 24, Dunn has a ton of upside but needs to get his act back together this year. He can carry a .250 batting average with lots of Ks if he’s getting on base at .370 and slugging .500. He can’t if he’s posting 340/450. He most certainly can’t drag a .215 BA along with those low-end numbers. Dunn can still turn in a sterling career, should he remember how to make contact and hit the ball real hard, but the early warning lights are starting to light up the dashboard too. Of interest, his most similar batters from baseball-reference.com: Russ Branyan and Pete Incaviglia.

The caveats about Junior’s health are more or less a given now. His hamstrings seem to pop every time a strong breeze blows through and video of him collapsing after rounding third is almost a regular April feature of SportsCenter. But with all of that given, keep in mind the fact that Ken Griffey, Jr. posted a 370/566 in his 53 games last year. It’s not his peak, and it’s likely to drop a bit if he does manage to play every day again, but even so, a healthy Junior is one of the best players in baseball. Still. Of course, like Casey, if the Reds could find someone to work the contract with (for whom Griffey would agree to play) Griffey would be traded in a heartbeat. At 33, he’s not going to be a part of the next great Reds team, even if he is still their best player (when healthy.) Rumors are already flying, with both Seattle and Atlanta mentioned as possible destinations. With Austin Kearns capable of playing CF and Stephen Smitherman almost ready to try his hand at a corner slot, the Reds want to move either Griffey or Casey or both.

Another super-prospect who slipped a little in 2003, Kearns is still probably the Reds best player going forward. When healthy he hits for average, power and takes his walks while playing an immaculate right field. He has the range to switch to CF, should the team move the incumbent, and could give Jim Edmonds a run for most valuable CF should that happen, but he does need to get a full year of healthy play under his belt, with production closer to his rookie campaign than last year’s. Of all of the Reds young position players, Kearns is the most likely to become the real-deal superstar caliber player.

Of this group, Smitherman will just as likely head to Louisville for a year of regular play rather than have his development impeded by long periods of bench warming in Cincy. Wily Mo Pena and Reggie Taylor are both on their last legs as "prospects" but will likely be the fourth and fifth outfielders anyway. Felipe Lopez should be starting, but regardless the rest of the bench is a hodge-podge of near useless parts. Castro and Olmedo can compete for the coveted multi-position backup who couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat position, though the new management might be wise enough to replace one of them with Ryan Freel. Freel can at least, on occasion, identify a pitch thrown toward him. Sad thing is, any of those three might very well out hit Brandon Larson, so what are you going to do? If Smitherman plays well at AAA and Larson/Freel/Castro/Olmedo play, well, as might be expected, don’t be shocked to see Austin Kearns re-try his hand at 3B. All in all, the Reds really need to hope for healthy and bounce back play from all of their starters and a break out year from Felipe Lopez, because their bench is truly bad.

Speaking of "truly bad…" The bright side of this mess is that Brandon Claussen pitched extremely well as a Red last year and is sparkling in spring training this year. That is good, because this is a rotation in desperate need of an ace, or a queen, or jack, or even a ten of diamonds really. Claussen is the last best hope for that. Otherwise Jimmy Haynes is a pulled back muscle away from being the Reds’ opening day starter for the second year in a row. The implications of that ought to be obvious. Counting on Paul Wilson to recapture his 2000 form is no more of a strategy than was waiting for Ryan Dempster to do the same. Corey Lidle is a nice guy to have in your four spot, but you’d prefer to have someone better in the one, two and three spot. Apparently working off the theory that you can’t have just one marginal Oakland cast-off, the Reds brought in Aaron Harang to keep Lidle company and, maybe, perhaps, start a game or two. Jose Acevedo tries to pry his way back into a starting rotation on the strength of 27 innings pitched last year. Chris Reitsma may be the best non-Claussen candidate of the bunch and is most likely headed to the bullpen again. Then, just for good measure, there’s Aaron Myette and D.J. Mattox and Josh Hall and John Riedling and Matt Belisle and Brian Reith… Hell, even Todd Van Poppel has been mentioned as a starting candidate. I’m shocked Ty Howington hasn’t been brought up as well.

The upside of having no rotation to speak of is that you get a really solid bullpen from the spare parts. Danny Graves, after an abysmal turn at starting last year, has been thankfully moved back to closer, where he belongs. Wagner, Riedling and Norton are all decent setup/long relief options, and someone out of that bunch of pseudo-starters up there will turn in 80 sterling innings of relief instead. The problem, of course, is that with the starting rotation the Reds are likely to go with, the pen will once again be overworked before the end of July.

Management – Dave Miley (Manager), Dan O’Brien (GM)

Dave Miley has managed a grand total of 57 games in the major leagues. He’s won 22 of them. This is, of course, meaningless. 57 games won’t tell us anything about his skills at winning (or losing) ball games. Miley brings a couple of things to the table, though. First, he’s not Bob Boone. He has to get some points for that, right? Secondly, he’s obviously on board with upper management’s program. That’s why he was hired in the first place. Miley gets a little big league experience. Ownership gets a manager who doesn’t complain about having a rotation staffed by nothing but #4 or #5 starters.

Dan O’Brien, who replaced Jim Bowden as GM midseason last year, is in the midst of a complete tear down and rebuild. In the final three months of last season, the team traded away pretty much anyone they could get into the van, all for minor league pitching, addressing with quantity the gaping organizational wound they couldn’t fix with quality. It’s far too early to say if any of these moves are going to work, but after years of bailing wire, spit and specious hopes for repeated career years (Ron Villone, Ryan Dempster, Jimmy Haynes) by Bowden, O’Brien’s team at least seems to have a reasonable grasp of where the franchise is in the success cycle.

From the top down, Reds management is single mindedly searching for the One True Ring: pitching. O’Brien has re-designed the scouting department, breaking it into three distinct units. What was once a single monolith has been broken into amateur, professional and international divisions. Two of O’Brien’s old college chums, Terry Reynolds and Dean Taylor, direct the first two departments, respectively, while former special assistant to the GM Johnny Almaraz heads up international scouting. It remains to be seen if any of these moves are actually going to help the Reds develop (or acquire via trade, which would be Taylor’s job) any pitching that’s going to help the team win, but it could hardly be worse in the long-term than Bowden’s last five years of rudderless micro-maneuvering and pointless acquisition of marginal corner outfielders and infielders.

The Reds play in what promises to be one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Two of their divisional rivals could legitimately lay claim to "best in the NL" this year. Another is a perennial contender. Yes, they get to play the Pirates and Brewers 19 times each, but honestly, the Reds may not field a team capable of beating even those clubs with regularity. The starting pitching is abysmal and unlikely to regularly provide the quality pen with leads to hold. The offense could be pretty good, assuming that their injury prone centerfielder manages to stay healthy, their two young corner outfielders regain their respective rookie campaign form(s), their first base man reverses a five year trend of poor production, and someone steps up to produce offense from the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, that’s the upside, and if all goes well there, and Brandon Claussen becomes a staff ace, and a couple of the other grown-in-a-vat fourth starters turn in best-of-career type performances, the Reds can maybe compete for third place. If the competition gets hurt they might wiggle into the wildcard chase. But in all likelihood, Cincinnati is simply in for an excruciatingly long year, much like 2003. If Griffey, Jr. gets hurt or traded, or Larson stumbles, or Larkin plays like a 40 year old, they might compete for the title of worst team in the league. And if that happens, they don’t even have the refrain of "there’s young talent in the pipeline" to fall back on. Outside of Ty Howington and Steve Smitherman, what you see in Cincy is more or less what the organization has to offer.

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Kearns             rf  .308  .413  .516  101  364   62  112  17   1  19   66   62   74   6   3 
Dunn*              lf  .245  .408  .484  139  473   82  116  18   1  31   88  122  138  13   6 
Griffey*           cf  .258  .352  .504   77  236   33   61  17   1  13   42   32   51   1   1 
Jimenez#           2b  .293  .377  .429  151  587   82  172  29   6  13   71   74   93   9   7 
Casey*             1b  .292  .358  .415  141  537   66  157  26   2  12   68   50   56   3   1 
Larson             3b  .270  .333  .468  112  393   61  106  22   1  18   64   34  108   4   2 
Smitherman         lf  .269  .342  .436  142  475   64  128  23   1  18   70   48  124   9   3 
Pena               cf  .261  .343  .410  103  322   47   84  13   1  11   44   37   82   5   1 
Valentin#          c   .268  .329  .435  103  384   48  103  29   1  11   53   32   89   0   1 
Hummel             3b  .273  .343  .399  146  557   76  152  27   2  13   68   54   94   6   4 
Lopez#             ss  .260  .343  .411  120  450   73  117  21   4  13   56   53  115  11   8 
Vander Wal*        rf  .240  .328  .417  115  321   40   77  25   1  10   43   39  102   2   3 
Miller             c   .246  .319  .417  110  357   46   88  25   0  12   51   35   63   1   1 
Encarnacion        3b  .267  .322  .397  106  390   60  104  14   2  11   49   28   78  13   5 
LaRue              c   .237  .317  .413  118  375   45   89  22   1  14   53   32  110   2   3 
Freel              2b  .258  .323  .385  102  387   60  100  24   2   7   43   34   49  21  11 
Taylor*            cf  .261  .306  .410  117  322   39   84  16   4   8   37   19   81  12   8 
Christensen*       cf  .258  .317  .373   87  322   45   83  19   3   4   31   26   69  10   8 
Holbert            ss  .269  .308  .377  109  390   54  105  22   4   4   38   18   70   9  12 
Clark*             2b  .223  .320  .329  113  377   44   84  11   4   7   34   51   59  18   9 
Castro             2b  .244  .290  .373  103  279   25   68  13   1   7   33   16   52   1   2 
Olmedo#            2b  .259  .318  .321  104  433   55  112  16   1   3   38   34   84   7   6 
Larkin             ss  .229  .292  .344  101  340   44   78  28   1   3   33   27   44   5   3 
Sardinha           c   .220  .266  .296   86  328   28   72  16   0   3   28   18   80   1   2 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Wagner               3.60   2   2  26   0    30.0   23   12   2   15   36 
Claussen*            4.10   4   5  17  17   101.0   89   46   8   47   98 
Harang               4.12   9  10  27  27   142.0  137   65  12   49  110 
Riedling             4.28   2   3  47   5    80.0   78   38   4   37   55 
Randall              4.34   8   9  35  20   141.0  148   68  12   43   81 
Prokopec             4.42   6   7  26  18   112.0  114   55  18   26   96 
Mallette             4.42   2   5  51   0    57.0   48   28   8   28   60 
Lidle                4.48  10  12  30  30   189.0  202   94  22   54  123 
Norton*              4.50   3   5  59   2    66.0   61   33   4   35   54 
Matthews*            4.50   3   5  61   4    68.0   64   34   6   31   53 
Belisle              4.53   5   7  27  23   141.0  147   71  17   42   95 
Reitsma              4.53   8  10  40  19   139.0  148   70  17   36   86 
Hall                 4.55   6   9  31  30   172.0  170   87  15   74  125 
Acevedo              4.65   8  11  32  23   147.0  149   76  22   46  119 
van Poppel           4.74   4   4  46   6    93.0   95   49  13   30   77 
Etherton             4.77   6  10  28  28   151.0  167   80  18   42   78 
Cerros               5.02   2   3  37   1    52.0   58   29   6   19   27 
Wilson               5.02   7  11  31  28   172.0  187   96  26   56  110 
Graves               5.04   5   9  46  16   134.0  156   75  19   33   58 
Haynes               5.09   8  14  29  28   161.0  169   91  18   73  102 
Hudson               5.17   6  10  31  23   134.0  130   77  18   70  121 
Myette               5.17   5   8  32  15   120.0  117   69  19   68  111 
Mattox               5.20   5   9  23  23   123.0  124   71  12   67   87 
Moseley              5.22   6  10  26  26   162.0  181   94  21   66   98 
Valentine            5.26   2   3  47   0    53.0   49   31   4   38   45 
Howington*           5.29   5   8  21  21    97.0   97   57   9   58   69 
Reith                5.33   5  11  36  19   125.0  131   74  18   57   89 
Thurman              5.43   6   6  28  18   111.0  115   67  16   55   90 
Austin               5.64   3   6  36   9    75.0   77   47  14   38   65 
Sanchez*             6.62   2   8  39  17   117.0  136   86  27   63   82