Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have been one of the most successful teams in major league baseball since 1992 and with the NCAA tournament upon us, you could call them the Kansas of MLB, sometimes good, sometime very good, but almost always in the mix, yet never emerging as the champion.

Houston hit rock-bottom in 1991 with 65-97 record. From those ashes emerged a core that would play no worse than .500 for the next 8 seasons, including 3 division championships (alas, they could not win a post-season series). 3 players remain from the 1992 team that vaulted back to .500 (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Shane Reynolds), and each will play a key role in the Astros fortunes this season.

In 2000, the bottom fell out again, as the pitchers did not adjust well to their new bandbox and Houston plummeted to 72-90. The team lost 180 runs on the defensive side of the ball (even after adjusting for the park) between 1999 and 2000. The team was also 8 games below their expected won-loss record. Jose Lima was the biggest culprit, but it was a collective collapse, including Billy Wagner missing 60% of the season with an injury, and pitching to a 6.18 ERA when he was out there.

Lima was jettisoned for 2001, the rest of the staff recovered (all except Scott Elarton), Wagner was healthy, Octavio Dotel came into his own and the two pitchers who have become the cornerstone of the staff emerged, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller. If you count the offense, rotation, closer and setup man as the 'starting 15', Houston still has 11 of their 2001 starting 15 in the lineup for 2003. The only differences from the team that won 93 games and the division title are that Jeff Kent replaces Moises Alou; a platoon of Geoff Blum and Morgan Ensberg (the likely scenario at this writing) replaces Vinny Castilla; and Elarton and Dave Mlicki will be replaced by Brian Moehler and one of Tim Redding, Jeroime Robertson or Jared Fernandez in the rotation. This team is poised to win the division, and in my opinion they should be slightly favored over the St. Louis Cardinals.

As we said earlier, with the exception of 2000, the Astros have been over .500 every year since 1992, yet they haven't won a single post-season series in that time. The table below shows Houston's record since 1997 (their first division title of this era):

The Astros pitching is back at a level that is capable of winning the division, if the offense were equally good. The staff is still not as good as it was in 1998 or 1999, but they don't need to win 100 games to win this division either. They'll likely be better in 2003, the back end of the rotation was a disaster last year.

Looking at the chart, it’s impossible not to notice the erosion of the offense since 1998. The core of the offense (Bagwell and Biggio) is aging, and the emergence of Lance Berkman hasn't been enough to offset the decline. Richard Hidalgo hasn't been able to repeat his amazing 2000 campaign, and 3B has been tough to fill. Brad Ausmus' offense was acceptable in 1997 and 1998 (4.1, 4.2 XR/27 outs in the Astrodome), it's been putrid since his return in 2001 (3.0, 3.1 XR/27 outs in MinuteRon FieldPark).

Biggio and Bagwell's offensive winning percentage, 1998-2002:

Bagwell, while still a star, hasn't been an elite 1B since 1999. From 1994-98 Biggio was one of the best players in baseball. He slipped a little in 1999 (though he was still very good). Then he suffered a big decline in an injury plagued 2000, bounced back in 2001 but had the worst year of his career in 2002.

One would think Berkman's arrival as an offensive star midway through the 2000 season would offset this decline, but it hasn't. That's because in 1998 the Astros were the beneficiaries of a monster year from Moises Alou. In 1999 it was Carl Everett. In 2000 it was Richard Hidalgo. Berkman has more than replaced them, which is great, but that has not offset the declines of Biggio and to a lesser extent, Bagwell. Most people don't realize that it has always been a 3 or 4 man, and not a 2-man show in Houston (at least since 1998 anyway). It is easy to overlook this when the 3rd star is different every year. Also, Alou had good years in 2000 and 2001, which did help to mask the decline of Stros' big two. The Astros even had major offense out of catcher in 2000, Mitch Meluskey provided about 400 PA of .882 OPS. Alas, these performances were wasted due to the implosion of the pitching staff.

By 2002, no one had emerged as that 3rd or 4th star and it was a Berkman and a lesser Bagwell shouldering the entire load, as the offense sunk to being basically league average. Geoff Blum was the only other player besides the new Big-2 who was significantly above average offensively, and he didn't hit lefties; frankly, he had a lucky year against righties. I felt that it was a mistake to send Morgan Ensberg down, but in retrospect 1) they weren't going to win the division anyway, 2) Blum did play well, luck or not, 3) Ensberg got more at bats in New Orleans than he would have platooning with Blum in Houston. Of course, I think they should have just let Ensberg play, but since the decision was made that Blum was going to play as long as he was playing well, Ensberg was better off in New Orleans than starting twice a week in Houston.

Gerry Hunsicker addressed the problems with the declining offense by shipping out Daryle Ward and replacing him with the best 2B in baseball, Jeff Kent, the surprise coup of the Winter Meetings. Of course, Ward is an outfielder, so Biggio will be moving to CF this year. I figure this will add anywhere from 35-50 runs to the Houston offense in 2003, 50 if Kent has another year like he did last year or like his 2000 season, 35 if he slips some.

With that, let's take a look at how the Astros shape up for 2003:

First Base: Jeff Bagwell - pass.

Just kidding (readers of the NHBA will get the joke, I couldn't resist, even though I loved the book).

Offense: Bagwell is still one of the better 1B in the league, but he's not elite anymore. He had 7.07 adjusted XRuns per 27outs (aXR/27) in 2002 (all XRuns numbers here are adjusted for the park; the league average hitter had 4.45 aXR/27). For the Astros to contend, he'll have to maintain his 2000-02 offensive level, Houston can't afford for him to slip another rung on the ladder as he ages. Bagwell continues to crush LHP (.459obp/.685slg in 2002), but he's not any better than Derrek Lee against a RHP, which means he's good not great. He is still a surpisingly good baserunner and was 7-for-10 as a base-stealer last year.

Defense: Bagwell is an average defensive 1B at this point in his career. He's 35 too, so it will only get worse as Father Time chips away.

Second Base: Jeff Kent

Offense: The best offensive 2B in baseball. Kent created 7.64 aXR/27 in 2002. He's 35 though, so it's likely that he will decline, although this park will mask any real dropoff.

Defense: Kent's range is below average and he makes a few more errors than your average 2B (.978 FPct, league .982), but you can live with that as the tradeoff for his offense. Statistically he appears to be pretty good on the pivot. The Giants turned 9 more DPs than an average team in 2002, despite having far fewer runners on base than most teams. The Giants starting staff also had two fly-ball pitchers, and 3 neutral pitchers, so he didn't get any extra DP chances that way (the bullpen was pretty heavily fly-ball slanted as well). But SF pitchers struck out 92 fewer batters than an average team, so that did help the DP numbers some, but I don't believe it was enough to offset the disadvantage Kent had from what was basically a fly-ball staff that didn’t allow very many baserunner. Overall I'd say San Francisco's DP total last year was quite impressive.

What people don’t realize is that Biggio was a far cry from his old self on defense since his injury in 2000. While he doesn’t make many mistakes (just 8 errors in 2002), he wasn’t getting to many balls either, his range has really slipped. Despite a predominantly RH staff (more grounders to 2B from LHB), and a staff where only a couple of the relievers are fly ball pitchers, Biggio’s Range Factor was still below average. Diamond Mind gave him a fair range rating. His range wasn’t any worse, but . . . the Astros were not good turning DPs. Despite an average number of runners on base, and a ground ball staff, they turned 14 few DPs than an average team.

Kent could add 20 DPs to the defense this year, which could swing an extra 2 games into the win column and more than offset a few extra errors.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo

Offense: Lugo created 4.18 aXR/27 in 2002, though he missed the last two months after Kerry Wood broke his forearm. That's a little above average for a SS. Lugo is 27 this year, so he should continue improve offensively. If Adam Everett were to win the position (doubtful), his offense wouldn't be as good. Everett's Major League Equivalent (MLE) in New Orleans was .315/.358. Everett is 14 months younger than Lugo, so there may be more eventual upside, but Lugo should be the starter for now.

Defense: Lugo has above average range, which is the most important attribute defensively for a SS, and he is pretty sure-handed as well (.976 FPct vs. .970 for the league). Everett also has good range, but is more error-prone.

Third Base: Platoon Geoff Blum vs. RHP, Morgan Ensberg vs. LHP.

Offense: This is a crucial position in Jimy Williams' lineup. There is talk that the 3B would hit 2nd this year, with Biggio leading off and Lugo dropped into the 8-hole. Ensberg is the better player, but he'll have to prove it to Williams. He hit .401/.421 in New Orleans (.382/.403 MLE, New Orleans is a severe pitcher's park, combining that with Enron being an extreme hitter's park, there is very little deflation when translating batting stats from New Orleans to Houston) after being sent down in June. If you combine his New Orleans MLE with his Houston numbers, you get 4.82 aXR/27, .265/.370/.401 for the season, 495 PA. This is not out of context with Ensberg's previous minor league numbers, except that his power was way down last year. Ensberg averaged 25 HR per 500 AB in the minors prior to 2002, and projects as a 20-HR a year player.

Ensberg struggled in Houston over the first two months of 2002, but he wasn't terrible (.346/.394), he was still getting on base, his power just disappeared, perhaps he was hiding an injury. I even understood sending him to AAA for a few weeks to work some things out and gain some confidence. But then Blum started playing well (even though he was awful vs. LHP), and Ensberg never came back.

Over the last 3 years Blum has hit .335/.449, .313/.351 and .367/.440. So at his best, Blum (who is 2 1/2 years older), will hit with a little more power than Ensberg did last year, and he might match Ensberg's OBP. More typical for Blum would be about .340/.415, which significantly below the offensive level Ensberg should provide. Don't forget, Ensberg could still get better, while Blum very likely has peaked.

Defense: Blum used to have good range at third, but he's probably average now, although he is very sure-handed. Ensberg also has average range and he has a good arm, but made 27 errors last year between Houston and New Orleans. It's easy to see how this could frustrate an organization.

The likely scenario is the Blum starts the year playing against most RHP, and Ensberg will play against most lefties, which is reasonable, considering Blum is better defensively. For the Astros sake, I hope this year it's Ensberg that gets off to the hot start, and Blum struggles or maybe even suffers a minor injury that forces that Astros to give Ensberg a real chance without anyone looking over his shoulder. Ensberg can hit, and he'll prove that if he's given another opportunity. 132 at-bats is not enough of an opportunity, remember Voros' Law: anyone can hit anything in 150 AB (well, maybe I tweaked it a little, but you get my drift).

Left Field: Lance Berkman

Offense: One of the best in the game. 7.84 XR/27. Berkman does lose almost all of his power vs. LHP though. Last year he hit 40 of his 42 HR vs. RHP. Despite not being fast he's a good baserunner, and he only hit into 10 DP last year. He still gets on base vs. LHP, (.351 OBP), I would make the case for leading him off against lefties. Despite his not being fast, Berkman is a pretty good baserunner. I realize he'd probably never go for this, but other than that, the idea makes sense.

Defense: Berkman makes his share of errors (7 in 2002), but he's got average range if he's on the corner and he has an average arm. When stretched and asked to play CF he's not very good. Why the Astros would play Berkman in CF (118 starts), as opposed to Hidalgo (1 start) is beyond me.

Center Field: Craig Biggio

Offense: Declining in a hurry. Biggio completely lost the ability to hit LHP last year (.291/.270 -- yes, that's OBP/SLG, not batting average and isolated power!). He hit them fine in 2001, but in 2000 he also was pretty bad against them, slugging .294 (although he drew 21 BB in 68 AB, for a .430 OBP). It was only 115 AB, and as we discussed in the Ensberg comment, anyone can hit anything in 115 AB. Reverse platoon splits are rare as well, so it was probably just a coincidence, but it is worth keeping an eye on in 2003. Especially since Jason Lane hits lefties very well, a platoon could be possible. Well, since Biggio is a God in Houston (and deservedly so), and he makes a lot of money, possible isn't the proper word, practical is more precise.

I don’t mean to sound down on Biggio, he’s one of the least appreciated stars of his generation, but has to bounce back offensively this year. The move to CF means more offense is necessary, than if Biggio were still at 2B. I know loyalty is important, but in a perfect world, Biggio's contract wouldn't make him unmovable, and the Astros could deal him, stick Hidalgo where he belongs in CF, move Berkman to RF and give Jason Lane a shot in LF. Lane's MLE in New Orleans was .314/.457 in 2002 and he hit .375/.536 playing mostly against LHP in a 44 game stint in Houston. The AAA MLE was a sharp decline from AA, where Lane had a monster year in 2001. He's nothing special with the leather, but he'd play a passable LF.

Defense: Very important issue as well. Biggio still has some speed (16-for-18 SB last year), hopefully that translates to adequate range in centerfield. Back in 1990 Biggio held his own in 34 starts in CF, for what that's worth. He was 24 at the time, we'll see how the 37 year old version holds up. There were only 3 centerfielders who were 35 or older last year: Steve Finley (37, a good defensive CF), Kenny Lofton (35, an average defensive CF) and Marquis Grissom (35, an average defensive CF). So being 37 doesn't make it impossible for Biggio to play adequate defense in CF, in and of itself, but that fact that he's moving to the OF for the first time in 13 years might.

The thing is, I don't see why the Astros are trying to put Biggio in CF. It's simply not necessary. Richard Hidalgo is a very good outfielder and he can handle CF quite well. It would make more sense to me to put Biggio in LF, similar to what the Yankees did with Chuck Knoblauch. It's the easier position; it's also a spot that isn’t as vital defensively while he adjusts. Playing LF would also save a little wear on his 37 year-old legs too. Brian Hunter and Victor Hall (a Rule 5 pick from the Diamonbacks), should he stick, will be good defensive backups for Biggio if that becomes necessary.

Right Field: Richard Hidalgo

Offense: Hidalgo is an enigma. In 2000 he was one of the best players in the game, hitting .391/.636. Hidalgo scored 118 runs and drove in 122. The year earned him a monster contract, in the neighborhood of $45 million. He followed that up with an awful year (for the price) in 2001, .356/.455. Last year he was even worse, only playing in 114 games, and hitting .319/.415. Adding injury to insult, in the off-season, he was shot in a car-jacking back home in Venezuela. Hidalgo turns 28 July 2, so this should be the prime of his career. If he can get just hit his career average, .353/.492 it would go a long way towards getting Houston back to the postseason.

If Hidalgo cannot hit, either because 2000 was a fluke, or because of the injury, Lane could get the call (although he'd be better suited to LF, moving Berkman to RF would make sense in that scenario). A platoon with Orlando Merced (.366/.429 vs. RHP in 2002) is also a possibility if Hidalgo doesn’t bounce back.

Defense: Hidalgo has outstanding range for a RF and he could easily handle CF. His arm looks strong, but the numbers don't back that up, I guess what you think of it depends on whether you trust the stats or the scouts (the truth is usually somewhere in the middle). He's probably best suited to be a CF, not a RF. A centerfielder that puts up a .350/.500 offense is a pretty good player.

Merced has actually held up pretty well (he's 36 this year) and is still a decent defensive RF.

Catcher: Brad Ausmus

Offense: Awful. He’s the worst hitter on the club, and he's not passable as an everyday catcher anymore, despite his great arm and his friendship with Jeff Bagwell. He still hits lefties well, but he can't hit righties (.305/.329 last year) worth a lick anymore, he should be platooned at this stage of his career.

Help is on the way, but probably not until 2004. John Buck is one of the top prospects in the system, a 22-year old catcher, his MLE at Round Rock last year (.299/.402) is already about equal to Ausmus (.322/.353), and he's 11 years younger. He should move to New Orleans this year, and if his development continues, he'll push Ausmus for the job next year. Round Rock is an outstanding hitting environment, and New Orleans is not, so there’s usually a big dropoff on that move. I wonder if this causes the Astros to sometimes underestimate their young hitters, guys like Lane, Ensberg and Keith Ginter. Ginter is a 2B/3B who had a .342/.403 MLE in New Orleans before being traded to Milwaukee for a month of Mark Loretta. He also has a career .364 OBP in 110 major league PA. The park illusions make it look these guys are having more trouble moving from AA to AAA than they actually are.

Apologies for the digression. Greg Zaun is battling Raul Chavez for the backup catcher gig, and Zaun will likely win. He's probably a better hitter than Ausmus, .350/.408 the last 3 years (.275/.319 last year in 185 AB however). I'd let him prove he can't hit better than Ausmus vs. RHP and start the season platooning them, but in reality, Zaun will catch one or two days a week. He's 32, so it's quite possible last year wasn't a fluke and the drop-off signals the beginning of the end of his career. But I'll still trust the 359 AB from 2000-01 as much as the 185 AB last year. He's a career .335/.374 hitter, which is a lot better than Ausmus is vs. RHP these days.

Defense: Ausmus has a great arm, but it's value is diminished by the era we are in. The average team attempted 139 SB last year (the NL average was 217 20 years ago). So the difference between a catcher that throws out 35% and one that throws out 20% is 21 SB per year, or one every 8 games. It's just not that big of a deal, even if you adjust for the fact that teams will run more against the catchers with the weaker arms. These days, unless a catcher is just awful defensively, go with the bat. 90% of a catcher's value is simply in being able to play the position. They don’t have to be good, they just have to be there, allowing a good bat into the lineup somewhere else. Buck also has a good defensive reputation, so that shouldn't hold him back when his offense is ready.

It looks like the Astros will go with 11 pitchers and 14 position players on the opening-day roster. We've already covered 10 of the 14 players that should definitely be on the roster (the 8 starters, Ensberg and Zaun). We've touched on Jason Lane and Orlando Merced, who should also make the team and are a solid left/right punch off the bench.

That leaves two spots. Jose Vizcaino should beat out Adam Everett as the backup middle infielder and he's adequate at what he does. Vizcaino is nothing special with the glove, but he can pass at 2B, SS or 3B. He hit LHP quite well last year (.378/.426). He's 35 this year, but he's a solid, experienced utility man, perfect for the job on a club that's trying to win now. Everett should be starting somewhere to gain experience, that's New Orleans for now.

The other bench spot is a toss up between Victor Hall and Brian Hunter. Hall is a Rule 5 pick that would have to be offered back to Arizona if he doesn't make the club. Hunter is the established veteran, who started 40 games in CF last year and hit .329/.423. He's a great baserunner and basestealer as well (81% for his career), although he only ran 5 times last year (the Astros attempted fewer stolen bases than anyone in the NL). Hall really needs a few more years in the minors, but he could emerge as a Brett Butler type, but that won't be until 2005 at the earliest.

One scenario would be to keep both Hunter and Hall on the roster and send down Ensberg or Lane. I think the best thing for Hunsicker to do would be to work out a trade with Arizona that would allow the Astros to keep Hall and play him in AA where he belongs. He's worth trying to hang on to, as he's extremely fast and has a good eye (47 BB in 352 AB in A ball last year, and he hit .278). That being said, a team in contention can't afford to waste a roster spot on a pinch-runner/defensive sub, especially in the NL where you need pinch-hitters (ask Tony LaRussa, what were they thinking last year?). In my opinion, if you can't work out a deal, you have to return him.

#1 Starter: Roy Oswalt

He is simply the franchise. If there is one player the Astros cannot afford to lose it is Roy Oswalt. I voted him second in the Baseball Primer NL Cy Young voting last fall (he finished 3rd), and nothing has changed, so I'll repeat that comment here:

The sky appears to be the limit for this recently-turned (August 29) 25-year old right-hander. Oswalt built on his outstanding rookie season and proved that he could shoulder the load as an ace on a contending club. He was third in the NL with 233 IP and tied for 4th with 34 starts. He posted the 5th best ERA in the league (3.01), despite pitching in the 2nd best hitter's park in the league. Oswalt was also third with 19 wins (9 losses) and 5th with 208 strikeouts. He only allowed 17 HR this year as well and his 24 quality starts were tied for 4th in the NL.

Oswalt doesn't need to improve to have a Hall of Fame career. He just needs to stay healthy and pitch like this for the next 10-11 years. He's the best young pitcher in the National League and is now 33-12 in his career, with a 2.91 ERA. The sky is the limit for this kid and he won't even be eligible for free agency until after the 2007 season.

#2 Starter: Wade Miller

Miller will be 27 in September and has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the National League. He's a strong number 2, finishing 8th in the NL in ERA+ each of the last two seasons. He missed a month and a half with neck and shoulder injuries last year, but that's the only blemish on two outstanding seasons (31-12, 3.35 ERA over 2001-02). He cut his HR allowed nearly in half last year (per IP), while maintaining his K and BB rates. Miller and Oswalt give the Astros the 2nd best 1-2 punch in baseball (I shouldn't have to tell you who #1 is).

#3 Starter: Shane Reynolds

Another career Astro (this is definitely a franchise that values stability), Reynolds is recovering from back surgery, and is one of the key players on this team. The 3-5 spots in the rotation are going to determine whether this team wins 85 or 95 games. Reynolds is 35, there's no guarantee that he'll ever be the pitcher he was before last year's surgery. If he returns to form, he's a solid #3, ERA+ between 105-115 (in 2000 the park killed him, and in 2002 he was hurt, even with those years, his career ERA+ is 105). So far this spring, in 11 2/3 IP, he's fanned 2 and walked 2, but he's allowed 5 HR, which is downright scary. If he's just working through the kinks and not trying, spring stats don't mean a thing. But if he's going 100%, that HR rate is alarming, we'll find out next month which it is. Last year's number 3 starter was a combination of Carlos Hernandez (4.38 ERA, 111 IP) and Peter Munro (3.57 ERA, 80 2/3 IP). If Reynolds can give the Astros those same 192 IP with an ERA around 4.00, Jimy Williams would be tickled pink. That, and there's a good chance Williams would be back in the post-season for the first time since 1999.

#4 Starter: Brian Moehler

Moehler is battling back from a couple of injury-plagued seasons, he had surgery for a torn-rotator cuff July 4, 2001. He's made just 13 starts since 2000. Last year he showed some flashes of brilliance, but was very inconsistent. This spring he appears to be healthy and has pitched pretty well, he may finally be past the injury. Moehler is 31, and has a career ERA+ of 104. The Astros would be thrilled if he can give them 185 innings at that level, and he'd be a massive improvement over last year's #4 starters, a combination of Reynolds (4.86 ERA, 74 IP) and Dave Mlicki (5.34 ERA, 86 IP).

#5 Starter: Tim Redding/Jerome Robertson/Jared Fernandez/Peter Munro

What an interesting quartet. I’m including Peter Munro here, even though he’s not a candidate, he’ll start the year in the bullpen.

Robertson has paid his dues in the minor leagues, the 26-year old lefty was the Astros 24th round pick in the 1995 draft. He isn't a flame-thrower, he's a mid-80s ground ball pitcher. He has excellent control (45 BB/180 IP) and doesn't give up many HR (just 13 last year); attributes that should serve him well at Minute Maid Park. The park is also friendly to left-hand HR hitters, so being a lefty will give him an advantage in this park. He's in the Tommy John family of pitchers, but that's the problem. Tommy John pitchers do not do well in hitter's parks. He led the PCL with a 2.55 ERA last year, but New Orleans is one of the best pitchers parks in AAA. Among the contenders for the #5 slot, he's pitching the best this spring, but I think he'd be set up to fail. The Astros should consider trading him to a team that plays in a pitcher's park while his stock is high.

Redding has great stuff, but his command isn't there yet. He shows flashes of brilliance, but he's inconsistent. He would have been great for the Astrodome, he might not be cut out for Minute Maid Park. Of the pitchers vying for the #5 spot, he clearly has the best stuff (mid 90s, with a curve and a slider). I generally like the hard throwers, but if it were my choice I'd still keep him in the pen for now (I'm speculating because I have no idea what Houston will do). One of Moehler, Reynolds or the #5 will falter or get hurt, at that point I'd hand Redding the ball. I think eventually Redding is going to be the best pitcher in this group, I'm just not sure that will be the case in 2003, and the Astros are a legitimate World Series contender, so they have to be careful.

Fernandez is a knuckleball pitcher, like most, he'll probably have to start in the bullpen or New Orleans and wait for an injury before he gets a realistic shot at the rotation. Fernandez is 31, it's not to late for him to become Charlie Hough, but obviously it's a long-shot at best. He could pitch well in the bullpen; it'd be quite an interesting contrast facing Fernandez after someone like Oswalt, or facing someone like Dotel or Wagner after facing Fernandez. He'll likely start the year in the Bayou though.

Munro pitched very well last year in 14 starts and 5 relief appearances. He's got excellent control (2.6 BB/9), and he keeps the ball in the park (just 5 HR allowed in 80 2/3 IP). I'm a little puzzled as to why Houston didn't just let Reynolds and his bad back leave, I had penciled Munro in the rotation in my thoughts this winter. I think he's a better pitcher than Reynolds right now, especially with Reynolds injury questions. Reports are that Munro will start the year in the bullpen. That being said, I'd give him the #5 spot, I think he earned that right last year, the job should be his to lose.

Despite the fact that I think Munro deserves the call as the #3, let alone the #5; I think Redding will win the job, and I don't think it's a bad choice. For the Astros sake, I hope they aren't won over by Robertson's good spring. I think he should at least start the year in the bullpen, so he can adjust to the massive difference between New Orleans and Minute Maid Park. Whoever the 5th starter is, he should perform better than Redding (5.40, 73 1/3 IP) and Kirk Saarloos (6.01, 85 1/3 IP) did last year.

Rotation Summary: The Astros will have one of the top 4 starting rotations in the National League. They have 6 pitchers that are legitimate rotation starters, plus wild-cards in Robertson and Fernandez. If one goes down, another is ready to step in, and there really is little difference between the #3 guy and the #6 guy. Things may be a little shaky in the early going, but by June things will have worked themselves out and the Astros will have 2 of the best starters in the league backed up with a reliable 3-4 and probably a reliable 5. The fact that we aren't sure who the 3-4-5 will be at that point is cause for concern, but I think of Reynolds, Moehler, Robertson, Redding, Fernandez and Munro, 3 will pitch well and stay healthy this year.

Closer: Billy Wagner

Wagner is one of my favorite players. I went to a Division III school at the same time Wagner was pitching for Ferrum. Being a left-handed second baseman with no arm, my career didn't make it out of Little League, but several of my friends in college were on the team and knew of Wagner. Since it's not every day that a short Division III pitcher becomes one of the most feared players in the game, we've always had a soft spot for him, it’s neat when you’ve followed a player before he is a star, and then watch him blossom into one. There's not much else to say about him, just that he's one of the best. He threw 75 IP with a 2.52 ERA, 88 K's and 22 BB's. Wagner also allowed just 51 hits and a .196 AVG.

Setup Man: Octavio Dotel

Dotel had the best individual year any setup man has had since Mariano Rivera's amazing 1996 campaign. Dotel pitched 97 1/3 innings, allowed just 58 hits, struck out 118, walked just 27. His one 'flaw' is that he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he isn't perfect for the park, he allowed 7 HR and 7 more sacrifice flies. Batters hit just .173/.239/.275 vs. Dotel in 2002. It all added up to 1.85 ERA, 31 holds and 6 saves (37 for 41 in save + hold opportunities). The only reason he's not following Rivera's footsteps and moving into an elite closer position is because unlike Rivera, his bullpen partner wasn't a free agent in the off-season. It's okay though, in this role Dotel actually has more value to the team during the regular season than Wagner does.

Bullpen: The 5-man rotation, Wagner and Dotel are assured of making the team. Ricky Stone (3.61, 77 1/3 IP) and Brandon Puffer (4.43, 69 IP) should be back as well, although one of them (probably Puffer) might not be, should Robertson make the rotation. Assuming Redding gets the #5 job, that leaves 2 spots for the 3 rotation losers, Bruce Chen, Jesus Sanchez and flame-throwing 26 year-old Brad Lidge. It's still to early to tell how it's all going to shake out, but I'd guess that Munro and Robertson (who'd be the only lefty besides Wagner) get the last two spots and Chen, Sanchez, Fernandez and Lidge start the year in New Orleans.

The Astros have a chance to erase their demons this year. We’ve touched on stability of this franchise earlier. I think in the past that emphasis may have kept the team from making the adjustments necessary to get over the hump. The signing of Kent is a major step towards getting past this. The Astros of the late 90’s and early 00’s remind me a lot of the 1978-88 Tigers in that respect. Bringing in Darrell Evans and Willie Hernandez in 1984, combined with some great years from the people already had there to produce the spark that pushed them over the top. The Kent signing could have the same impact here.

If Kent remains the best 2B in baseball, and Hidalgo bounces back and has a year that's average for him, the team will score about 50 more runs than they did last year. That doesn't even account for Morgan Ensberg improving or even a minor bounce-back from Biggio. Julio Lugo should improve some, and Lance Berkman is only 27, he might not have peaked either. The Astros scored 19 fewer runs than expected in view of their XRuns totals last year. Assuming league offensive levels stay the same, this team could easily score 800 runs in a neutral park, or 832 in Enron. A reasonable range would be 810-840.

The pitching should be improved as well; especially the back end of the rotation. Even with horrible 4th and 5th starters, this was one of the best staffs in the league in 2002. I don't think Houston's injury risk is any higher than that of other teams. Of course there is a risk of Oswalt or Miller blowing out, since they pitch in the major leagues. But short of that, this staff should be outstanding. Houston’s pitching and defense allowed 695 runs last year, and I think a stabilized 4-5 could save the team another 30 runs. Dotel might come back to Earth a little bit, but Kent will save the team 10-15 runs over the defense Biggio provided last year. It's not unreasonable to see this team between 650 and 685 runs allowed in 2003, I don't see how the pitching staff could be worse. Their 1-2 punch from the bullpen is the best in the league, and a front four of Oswalt, Miller, Wagner and Dotel in the postseason is intimidating. Those 4 could pitch 70% of the innings in a 7 game series.

Taking the best case scenario 840-650, Houston could have a record of 100-62. The more conservative scenario would see 810-685, which should lead to a 93-68 record. Houston has averaged coming about 2-3 wins short of their pythagorean record over the last 6 years, so a really conservative estimate could forcast an 90-72 record. I'll average the 3 and pick the Astros for 94-68, and their 5th Central Division championship in the last 7 years.

I think they’re going to the World Series.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO    Player      G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C     Ausmus    133 453  56 113 23  3  6  45  42  70  4  4 .249 .319 .353
1B    Bagwell   158 578 109 165 41  2 34 108 102 128  7  5 .285 .397 .540
2B    Kent      154 605 110 194 52  4 37 123  62 100  6  6 .321 .388 .603
3B    Blum      137 397  49 106 22  2 10  51  44  76  4  3 .267 .346 .408
SS    Lugo      116 425  72 115 19  3 10  38  39  93 13  7 .271 .338 .400
LF    Berkman   155 559 106 175 41  3 39 122 100 112  8  5 .313 .421 .606
CF    Biggio    138 546  91 139 36  3 14  53  54 101 10  4 .255 .326 .408
RF    Hidalgo   137 480  76 133 27  3 25  79  52  97  7  4 .277 .353 .502
c     Zaun       70 185  22  45  9  0  5  24  20  31  2  2 .243 .333 .373
c     Chavez    106 343  29  80 13  0  4  36  21  48  2  2 .233 .287 .306
c     Buck      122 448  53 117 24  2 13  91  28  98  1  2 .261 .313 .411
1b-of Merced    110 215  28  59 13  2  6  27  23  42  3  1 .274 .358 .437
if    Vizcaino  118 346  44  99 17  2  3  27  21  39  3  6 .286 .336 .373
ss    Everett   127 446  71 111 20  5  4  34  43  85 12  4 .249 .321 .343
3b    Ensberg   125 414  73 117 23  2 18  63  64  85  7  5 .283 .384 .483
of    Hunter     96 198  31  51 11  2  2  17  19  36 10  2 .258 .327 .364
of    Lane      152 513  90 146 36  2 28 102  64 126 10  3 .285 .370 .526

PO Player      W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Oswalt     19  6 2.87 33 30 204 168 65 14 45 205
SP Miller W   12  9 3.91 30 30 191 170 83 20 66 177
SP Moehler     7  8 4.76 22 22 136 150 72 19 34  73
SP Reynolds    8 10 4.75 23 23 142 155 75 20 37  84
SP Robertson   6  9 5.01 38 22 149 161 83 23 46  87
SP Sanchez     4 13 6.51 27 25 134 151 97 32 68  90
SP Miller G    3  6 5.46 14 13  61  63 37  9 29  40
SP Redding     9  9 4.26 31 27 148 127 70 21 60 159
SP Munro       9  7 4.15 34 22 143 143 66 10 49  89
RP Puffer      4  4 4.22 62  0  81  72 38  5 40  68
RP Stone       4  5 4.69 59  5  96  98 50 11 36  63
RP Dotel       7  4 3.47 66  6 109  81 42 12 43 139
CL Wagner      4  2 3.09 63  0  64  48 22  6 21  79
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.