Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves enter 2003 without Tom Glavine. The Braves pitching hegemony will be lost for the first time in more than a decade. These two events are not necessarily connected; however, they are two common threads of the Braves’ success that have unravelled. Even still this is a team that won 101 games last year, and the Braves play in a division that will probably be won with a total significantly less than that. Are the Braves likely to lose a dozen wins from their 2002 performance?

Offense 8th of 16 Teams (708 Runs scored, 260/331/409)
Defense 1st of 16 Teams (565 Runs allowed, 240/313/364)
NL Average - 719 Runs, 259/327/410

2002 Pythagorean Record – 96W – 64L

The offense was decidedly average last year, exactly as it has been since 1999. It was another unbalanced attack. The Braves had some great hitters: The Jones boys and Sheffield. Some decent production from Rafael Furcal and the Franco brothers at first base. And some of the worst production in the NL from its catcher, second base and third base hitters. Going into 2003, The outfield looks to be solid again. Second base should join the rest of the non-Castilla infield in providing approximately league average performance. Unfortunately for Atlanta, catcher and third base have not been upgraded.

Catcher – Braves OPS 622, NL-average OPS 706

Javier Lopez (R - 233/299/372 in 385 PA)
Henry Blanco (R - 204/273/335 in 249 PA)
Johnny Estrada (B - 279/327/417 in 460 PA in AAA)

Javier Lopez has now caught 903 games, and it is showing. Although he’s never shown great patience, he was once an asset with the bat. He’s started breaking down physically and has displayed a huge decline in his offensive productivity since his injury in 1999.

Although Lopez will be overpaid, he’s the best option the Braves have. While I don’t expect a return to his glory days. He’s capable of putting up similar numbers to his 2001 season: at least a 320 OBP and 420 SLG. That kind of offense would help the Braves tremendously. Although Greg Maddux has a pathological fear of working with Lopez, he’s not a bad defensive catcher. He doesn’t Blanco’s arm, but has thrown out runners at a reasonable clip the last two years.

Lopez needs all the days off the Braves can manage if he’s to stay healthy this year. Blanco, a rare backup-no-hit catcher whose defensive reputation is merited, will probably catch Greg Maddux’s starts. However, as has been noted, not even Blanco could help stop the running game when the deliberate Maddux was on the mound (24 SB vs 4 CS!).

Bobby Cox has long crippled his bench in the postseason by carrying a third catcher (although I’m willing to give him credit for Francisco Cabrera). It looks as though Cox is going to carry that tradition into the regular season by taking Johnny Estrada up to Atlanta. At the very least, Estrada is a switch-hitter, which complements Blanco and Lopez’s right-handedness. He looks to hit an empty .260 in the bigs. The Braves need one of those rare, good and left-handed back-up catchers with secondary skills, not an empty bat like Estrada’s. Unfortunately, the Jays snapped up Greg Myers. I’m not even going to weigh in on the stupidity of the Millwood for Estrada trade.

The Braves still have a championship team mentality. Championship teams look for long-term solutions; Atlanta needs to start looking for a long-term solution at catcher. Naturally, they don’t have any internal prospects that look to contribute behind the plate in the next few years. Lopez had a good run for about as long as you can expect a catcher to stay healthy. Even if he manages to cobble together a decent season, his contract is up at the end of the year and should not be renewed.

First Base – Braves OPS 826, NL-average OPS 805

Robert Fick (L – 270/333/433 in 614 PA with Detroit)
Julio Franco (R – 284/357/382 in 383 PA)
Matt Franco (L – 317/395/517 in 233 PA)

The Franco brothers provided some nifty offense for a Braves position that looked to be a serious weakness going into 2002. It’s not too much to ask them to do it again. Although Matt Franco should see some drop off, his flexibility (he can play all over the diamond – and has even pitched!) makes him extremely valuable.

Julio Franco maybe older than the “44” that is listed, but I’m inclined to believe that he’s pretty close to that age. Assuming the normal 1958 birth year, his career took off in 1986, at age 27, after three seasons of regular play.

Julio Franco in Seasons of more than 350 PA
Age         OPS+
24            87
25            87
26            99
27           108
28           116
29           114
30           137
31           121
32           146
34           118
36           137
37           122
38            90
43            95

Rob Fick is a season removed from catching 70 games, making Cox’s desire to carry three catchers even more ridiculous. Like Matt Franco, Fick is versatile. Aside from being a good emergency catcher, he can fill in either outfield corner. Both Fick and Matt Franco are lefties, and given the state of the Braves offense, Cox should try to find a way to get both into the line-up when a righty is on the mound. He has several options including:
- Giving Lopez a day off, letting Fick catch and playing Matt Franco at first
- Giving Castilla a day off, moving Matt Franco to the hot corner and playing Fick at first
- Moving Chipper back to third for a day, playing Fick and Franco in any combination between first and left

I don’t expect to see Fick behind the plate much, if at all, this year. Additionally, Julio Franco will probably see more action than he should against right-handed pitchers. Franco and Fisk do present enough flexibility for Cox to get a few more runs out of the offensive sinkholes at third and behind the plate. The question is will he take advantage of it?

Second Base – Braves OPS 642, NL-average OPS 723

Marcus Giles (R – 230/312/399 in 242 PA, 322/385/452 in 128 PA in AAA)
Mark DeRosa (R - 297/339/429 in 232 PA)

I loved Keith Lockhart, but the Braves figure to benefit from some addition by subtraction at second this year. Lockhart didn’t really get a break until his thirties, but managed to turn in a nifty career – for a late bloomer he also did fairly well financially. Lockhart will walk away from baseball having earned almost $ 5 million. Considering that at 28, it didn’t look like he’d ever get out of AAA, he’s got to be pretty happy.

I’m optimistic that Marcus Giles can improve dramatically over his 2002 performance. His defense has “improved” (not that it was ever as bad as the Braves thought it was) after work with Glenn Hubbard. He’s still young, and has potential for some serious offensive growth. If he can overcome the personal and physical problems that nagged him last year, Giles could break out to the tune of 350/450. His minor league record and 2001 major league performance indicates that type of performance as a baseline for future growth. For Giles, anytime spent at third is wasted, I think that Giles is still a long term solution to the a Braves position that has been looking for consistency since Mark Lemke.

As much as Giles has fallen out of favour with Cox, DeRosa has become a personal favourite. DeRosa is three years older, without as much potential for offensive growth. Last year represented a bottom level of performance for Giles (711 OPS), and top level for DeRosa (768 OPS). It is sad to say that as his offense stands now, he’d be a great 5th infielder on most clubs, but can easily help the Braves gain a few wins by becoming their regular third basemen. The ideal role for DeRosa would be to play a lot of third base and fill in occasionally for Furcal and Giles. No matter what role he has, expect DeRosa to approach 400 at-bats unless Bobby Cox’s favour is fleeting.

Like the first base options, Cox is presented with some flexibility that can potentially relieve his offensive weaknesses. Giles has great secondary skills (292 SECA in his poor 2002) and a track record that says he should be a minor offensive force. He should settle in at second this year. DeRosa can be a good player when his batting average is up. His versatility should benefit the Braves tremendously.

Shortstop – Braves OPS 720, NL-average OPS 689

Rafael Furcal (B – 275/323/387 in 693 PA)

The recent correction of Furcal’s age makes his rapid promotion to the majors look even more intelligent. Although his on-base skills have dropped since his sensational 2000, he’s still a useful player. I think he’ll get back on track in 2003, expect a much higher OBP. DeRosa should give him a few off days for rest, but that’s mostly to keep DeRosa sharp at short. Furcal has a very small platoon split.

Furcal’s defense at short has become an asset. His shoulder problems haven’t hurt his fantastic arm and his speed, which has always been present on the basepaths, has turned into good range. The combination of above average offensive production and good defense make him on of the more valuable shortstops in the NL. Of course, if he were playing in the junior circuit, he’d be handily outclassed.

There are two areas that Furcal needs a return to his rookie form to really help the Braves in 2003. His OBP must rise. This can be accomplished by recovering his patience and reversing the downward spiral in his groundball to fly ball ratio (2.24, 1.82, 1.76). Shortening up on his swing has the advantage of allowing him to be more selective and taking advantage of his still tremendous speed. Furcal must also stop running into outs on the base paths. His 64% success rate was not high enough for a man running 50-60 times a year.

Third Base – Braves OPS 645, NL-average OPS 733

Vinny Castilla (R – 232/268/348 in far too many PA)
Mike Hessman (R – 262/321/486 in 518 PA in AAA)

It’s not even funny anymore. Castilla sucked against lefties and righties. Turner stadium and rest of the NL ballparks were equally harsh on him. Castilla sucked with runners on, and with no one on base. He sucked before the all-star break, and he sucked worse after it.

The Braves have better options. In fact, they have Chipper Jones, whose defense was not bad enough to subject the Braves to Vinny. Hessman can deliver a better performance than Castilla at 1/20th the price. It’s time to eat the salary. Even with Chipper in left, the Braves can play a combination of Giles, DeRosa, Matt Franco and even Mike Hessman and gain a few games in the standings. Wilson Betemit might have an impact later in the season.

Left Field – Braves OPS 933, NL-average 869

Chipper Jones (B – 327/435/536 in 662 PA)

A slightly-less-rich man’s Mickey Mantle. Complete with transition from shortstop to outfield, it just took Chipper until he was 30 to switch. He’s capable of carrying an offense for months at a time, and there’s no reason that he won’t contend for another MVP award in the next few years.

Larry is as good a bet for a 320/430/600 season as there is. I’d still prefer him at third, where he is a small defensive liability, but the Braves will be content with his above average fielding and stupendous bat in left.

Centre Field – Braves OPS 869, NL-average 754

Andruw Jones (R – 264/366/513 in 659 PA)

Marlon Byrd ranked 19th in Aaron Gleeman’s top 50 prospects and 14th in Baseball Prospectus’ top 40. Andruw Jones is less than 5 months older than Marlon Byrd.

While he’ll never live up to the hype, Andruw is a great player. A regular at 21, an all-star by 23 and one of the top gloves in the history of the game. He may never develop into the offensive force that many predicted, but he looks like a solid bet to turn in a run of years during which a 360 OBP and 500 SLG will be the baseline.

As other analysts have pointed out, Jones’ fielding proficiency declined last year. It may be a one year aberration, but it is indicative of a general decline in Jones’ once superior speed. By Bill James Speed Score (an imperfect measure, but it’ll do the job here):

Andruw Jones Speed Scores as a Full-time Player
Year            Age             SPD SCORE
1998        	21         	7.9
1999        	22         	7.1
2000        	23         	6.9
2001        	24         	6.6
2002        	25         	5.1

Right Field – Braves OPS 890, NL-average 839

Gary Sheffield (R – 307/404/512 in 579 PA)

Sheffield got off to a horrible start in Atlanta. At the all-star break he was hitting .265. He caught fire in the second half, batting 359/460/571. When the two halves were combined it looked like a typical Gary Sheffield season, getting on base 40% of the time and slugging .500. Darren Bragg (269/347/401) figures to caddy again.

Sheffield and Chipper will once again carry the offense. Both ended 2002 strong; the Braves need them to keep it up in 2003.

Pitching

NL Starting Pitcher Averages (4.25 ERA, 6.45 K/9, .297 $H, 1.26 GB/FB)
NL Reliever Averages (3.81 ERA, 7.35 K/9, .294 $H, 1.26 GB/FB)

Braves Defense $H 
2002         .277
2001         .290
2000         .295

Glavine’s gone. So are the fantastic lefties Remlinger and Hammond. Kevin Millwood was shipped off for magic beans. Damian Moss and Kerry Ligtenberg and Tim Spooneybarger are all gone too. For the first time since the Braves run started in 1991, the rotation has only one legitimate threat to turn in an all-star calibre season. To make matters worse, that pitcher, Greg Maddux, is coming off his worst season in years.

The Braves still have Maddux, but there is no Glavine, no Smoltz (1992-1999 version), no Avery 1991-1994), no Neagle, no Millwood. They have to hope that someone will pull a great John Burkett imitation – and that’s just to get a decent number two behind Maddux. The Braves are used to 3 or 4 star starters. This year they have just one, and many questions.

Greg Maddux (R – 2.62 ERA, 5.32 K/9, .289 $H, 2.32 GB/FB in 199.3 IP)

The bad news: Maddux failed to reach 200 innings for the first time since 1987 and his K-rate suffered a significant drop. These are not good signs. There is reason for optimism. Maddux’s was able to bounce back from a dropping strikeout rate in 1999, and he was bothered by nagging, but non-career threatening injuries all year.

Maddux didn’t benefit from a Braves defense that was one of the best in the NL. He’s a groundball pitcher who will have to rely on a good infield defense. Particularly, he will need Furcal and Giles/DeRosa to turn the double play successfully. One thing is for certain: Maddux will win the Gold Glove again.

Mike Hampton (L – 6.14 ERA, 3.72 K/9, .323 $H, 1.67 GB/FB in 178.7 IP)

Free at last, Free at last, Hallelujah, Free at last. The question remains: can he ever get back to being the pitcher he once was? The Braves are stuck with him for a long time, and while they didn’t give up too much to get him, they are going to pay him a lot of AOL dividends over the next few years.

Other analysts have beaten Hampton to death, but I’ll remind you of a few things: his dropping K rate (which was never that great) and poor performance even away from Coors. He’s a great athlete, so a rebound is possible. I’m not very optimistic.

Leo Mazzone, make your case for the Hall of Fame now!

Russ Ortiz (R – 3.61 ERA, 5.75 K/9, .275 $H, 1.24 GB/FB in 214.3 IP)

Ortiz, a fly ball pitcher, has been aided by Pac Bell Park over the last three years (3.32 ERA at home, 4.48 ERA on the road). His tendency to give up the long ball has been less pronounced at home. Fortunately, he is moving to Turner Field not Fulton County Stadium.

Like Hampton and Maddux, his declining strikeout rate is a concern. If Andruw Jones’ defensive collapse was a one year aberration, he could be a real asset for Ortiz. I don’t expect that Ortiz will be as hurt by the move as many have predicted. Turner Field is not a hitters park, and the Braves’ defense, particularly in the outfield, looks to be strong.

With Ortiz and Hampton, the Braves will have two of the better hitting starting pitchers in the league.

Jason Marquis (R – 5.04 ERA, 6.63 K/9, .313 $H, 1.10 GB/FB in 114.3 IP)

Between Marquis and Damian Moss, I like Marquis a lot better. He strikes out more batters and walks less. Marquis was simply hit harder than Moss last year as reflected in their HR/9 and $H numbers. Their DIPS ERAs are essentially the same, with Marquis’ propensity for the long ball compensating for his advantage in strikeouts and walks. Like Ortiz, Marquis is a fly ball pitcher who could benefit from an all-world defensive season by Andruw.

Paul Byrd (R – 3.90 ERA, 5.09 K/9, .265 $H, 0.80 GB/FB in 228.3 IP)

Byrd is battling injury problems and probably won’t see action in for a while. When he gets back, the Braves want him to chew up a lot of innings. The moves to sign Byrd and trade for Ortiz were optional, and resulted in the Braves taking on a lot of salary. Personally, I’d much rather have Millwood and Moss than Byrd and Ortiz (Plus how cool would have an alliterative Maddux-Millwood-Marquis-Moss-Mikehampton rotation have been?).

Byrd gives up a lot of homeruns, but will benefit from the change of home ballpark - Kauffman stadium is a hitters park. Byrd is another flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike out many batters and needs a strong defense behind him.

Horacio Ramirez (L – 3.03 ERA, 6.26 K/9, .271 $H un-translated in 92 IP in AA)

It appears that Ramirez will start the year in the Atlanta rotation by skipping AAA entirely. Ramirez was out for most of 2001 and part of 2002 with injuries, but pitched well enough in Greenville and, more importantly, spring training to get a look from Bobby Cox. The move is a bit surprising, considering that last season’s AAA starters, particularly Trey Hodges and John Dawley, aren’t getting a shot.

Ramirez isn’t one of the Braves top prospects, but he’s worth taking a gamble on. He probably won’t get regular work, which might damage his chances of establishing himself this year. There are better pitchers on their way up, so Ramirez would be well served by making the most of this audition.

Jung Bong (L – 3.25 ERA, 7.89 K/9, .334 $H un-translated in 122 IP in AA)

Bong is more than just a hilarious headline waiting to happen (Mets hit Bong hard!), he’s one of the better advanced Braves pitching prospects. Last year he had some struggles when he was jerked in and out of the AA rotation. I like him a lot more than Ramirez, and for that reason, I’d much rather see him given a shot at a consistent role, be it long relief in the bigs or as a regular starter in Richmond.

John Smoltz (R – 3.25 ERA, 9.53 K/9, .277 $H, 1.28 GB/FB in 80.3 high leverage IP)

He might be more valuable as a starter, but he’s far less likely to breakdown this way. They still have $21 million left on his contract, so it’ll take a major catastrophe for him to get pushed back into starting. The Braves bullpen was so scary good last year that Smoltz was probably the 3rd or 4th most valuable member of it. He’ll probably be number 1 this year.

Darren Holmes (R – 1.81 ERA, 7.73 K/9, .262 $H, 0.97 GB/FB in 54.7 IP)

Smoltz and Holmes were the right handed half of the best foursome in a major league bullpen last year. Unfortunately the lefties have moved on to bigger and better contracts. The Braves need Holmes to be for real. Even if he stays healthy, he won’t repeat last year’s performance. History indicates that he can probably give them slightly better than league average relief for 60-70 innings. That’ll do nicely, but the Braves look to lose a lot from their 2002 bullpen.

Ray King (L – 3.05 ERA, 6.92 K/9, .304 $H, 1.90 GB/FB in 65.0 IP)

Mike Remlinger he ain’t. King is much more of a lefty specialist than Remlinger or Hammond. Someone’s got to pitch to Barry Bonds, and it sure as hell isn’t going to be Smoltz (305/468/763 career). King should be serviceable.

Kevin Gryboski (R – 3.48 ERA, 5.74 K/9, .282 $H, 2.09 GB/FB in 51.7 IP)

Gryboski could get hammered this year. He was extremely luck last year, with a DIPS ERA over 5. There isn’t much in his minor league record to indicate that he’s anything too special. He walked more batters than he struck out last year.

Roberto Hernandez (R – 4.33 ERA, 6.75 K/9, .346 $H, 1.78 GB/FB in 52.0 IP)

I think it was a good pickup. The 600K they spent on him is much more defensible than the 500K they gave to the recently released Mike Venafro. He’ll chew up some innings between Maddux or Ortiz and Smoltz, as well as some between the other starters and the end of the game.

Trey Hodges (R – 3.19 ERA, 6.06 K/9 in 172.3 IP at AAA - age 25)
Joe Dawley (R – 2.63 ERA, 8.72 K9 in 140.3 IP at AAA – age 32)
Andy Pratt (L – 3.90 ERA, 6.93 K/9 in 133.7 IP between AAA/AA – age 24)

The list goes on. Matt Belisle with a 4.35 ERA in 159.3 IP at AA Greenvillle. John Ennis and Brett Evert turned in decent performances in AA. The Braves have Adam Wainright and others on the way.

Dawley turned in a Ken Phelps All-Star season with Richmond last year, and should’ve gotten a shot at the open rotation spot before Ramirez. Hodges and Pratt are likely to be contributors out of the bullpen. The Braves may not have as great a staff as last year, but there is depth here.

How it should all play out

Bobby Cox will have some important decisions to make in the early months of the season. Many of them will be forced by the Phillies’ performance in the early months. The Braves have the potential for an improved offense, but Castilla could end up with 500 at-bats again. This season will also be a true test of Leo Mazzone’s abilities. Last year he was able to conjure up a historic bullpen out of Smoltz, Remlinger and a couple of guys who didn’t even pitch in 2001. This year, he’ll have to work similar magic with the relievers and manage a staff that has a lot of potential holes.

Cox and Mazzone can do it. Despite Jim Thome, David Bell and Kevin Millwood, I think the Braves will take this division.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player       G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Lopez      121 409  41 105 17  1 16  64  29  73  0  1 .257 .318 .421
1B Fick       136 488  63 134 30  2 20  61  43  78  0  2 .275 .340 .467
2B Giles      124 426  69 121 21  2 14  55  48  72  9  5 .284 .361 .441
3B Castilla   134 503  50 116 26  1 13  62  24  89  2  3 .231 .273 .364
SS Furcal     140 560  88 161 26  6  7  45  48  96 30 12 .288 .347 .393
LF Jones C    159 567 101 183 37  2 31 101 104  82  9  7 .323 .429 .559
CF Jones A    162 619 106 171 31  2 38 104  74 129 13  4 .276 .361 .517
RF Sheffield  137 496  93 157 28  1 31  95  84  60  8  5 .317 .423 .565
c  Estrada    117 419  44 113 24  0 10  56  21  44  1  0 .270 .311 .399
c  Blanco      93 271  26  59 16  1  6  28  29  60  1  2 .218 .296 .351
1b Franco M    85 190  22  58 13  3  5  26  26  29  1  0 .305 .389 .484
1b Franco J   107 292  41  78 12  1  5  24  32  67  4  1 .267 .341 .366
1b Hessman    135 479  64 112 22  1 23  67  33 130  1  3 .234 .290 .428
if DeRosa      97 306  46  89 18  1  5  30  28  34  5  4 .291 .357 .405
if Betemit    113 415  54 115 18  1 10  46  31  98  7  4 .277 .333 .398
of Bragg       95 234  36  63 14  1  5  19  31  60  4  3 .269 .360 .402

PO Player      W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Maddux     14 11 3.70 34 34 219 223  90 18 41 147
SP Hampton    11 13 4.59 32 32 196 198 100 16 85 128
SP Ortiz      12 14 4.59 33 33 206 200 105 19 93 155
SP Byrd       11 11 4.32 28 27 173 179  83 25 37 125
SP Marquis     6  8 4.82 27 19 112 109  60 15 47  91
SP Ramirez     7 13 5.30 24 23 124 130  73 22 48  92
SP Bong        8 10 4.76 28 23 140 146  74 14 57  90
SP Pratt       8 11 4.94 26 25 142 142  78 18 64 106
RP Gryboski    2  3 5.24 55  0  55  55  32  6 32  40
RP Holmes      2  2 4.11 46  0  46  44  21  4 16  37
RP King        3  2 3.86 72  0  56  51  24  4 21  47
RP Hernandez   4  4 4.08 61  0  64  60  29  7 22  56
CL Smoltz      3  2 3.04 61  0  71  58  24  5 19  75
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.