Kansas City Royals Preview

Why didn’t we see it coming? Was it just misguided optimism, or poor analysis? A lot of both probably. Instead of fighting for a division crown in 2004, the Royals ended the season with the worst record in team history and were compared more often to the Kansas City A’s of 1964 than to the Minnesota Twins of 2004.

So, after the disaster of a season, they spent the off-season doing nothing. The big free agent signing of the winter was Jose Lima, the big trade was the eviction of Darrell May from the clubhouse in exchange for Terrence Long. Does this give Royals fans any hope?

No.

It doesn’t disappoint me that they weren’t out there bidding on Beltre, Ordonez, and Lieber. What does disappoint me is they didn’t bring in Ben Grieve or Jose Hernandez or Woody Williams. The Royals simply did not bring in anyone that will push or protect the young players.

So what would make this season a success for the Royals? Throw out post-season play, as that is not going to happen. Here are some things that would show me the Royals are headed in the right direction:

- The pitching staff will have a limited amount of injuries, not 80% of the rotation.

- Pitchers will not move from short relief to rotation to closer to the minors based on their last outing.

- The Royals will have viable stop gap veterans to replace injured players rather than jerking up potential prospects from Double A only to lose them on waivers when the 40-man roster gets too crowded.

Is that too much to ask for?

To build for the future, the Royals have to give their prospects and suspects longer to sort things out in the minors. I am not excited about a rotation featuring Lima and Brian Anderson, but if that means J.P. Howell and Matt Campbell get an entire season in the minors to work on their craft rather than facing the White Sox after a couple of hot months in Wichita, I’ll live with it.

Catcher – John Buck

Buck started slow with the Royals after coming over in the Beltran trade last summer, but finished strongly, hitting .269 with 11 homers after August 1. Even if he can’t improve on his .704 OPS of last season, he would still be the best hitting catcher the Royals have had since Mike MacFarlane. He will only be 24 this season, so offensive improvement is certainly possible.

The downside was even during his strong final two months Buck still struck out in nearly 30% of his at-bats. For the season he struck out 79 times against only 15 walks, and his walk rate has never been very good in the minors.

Defensively, Buck threw out just 19% of opposing base stealers, but the Royals seem to believe his defense is solid.

Alberto Castillo is slotted to be the back up catcher, and Paul Phillips will return to Omaha. Castillo hit .270 last year, but his lifetime average is just .224. He won’t push Buck for playing time.

Phillips is an interesting story, playing just 13 games between 2000 and 2004 due to a series of arm injuries. He hit .312 in 86 games at Omaha last season, earning a September call-up. He will be 28 this season, and like Buck he is a right-handed batter. It would probably take a long-term injury to Buck for Phillips to get a real shot at an everyday job, but this is about where Damian Miller was in 1998 so things could happen.

First Base and DH – Mike Sweeney, Calvin Pickering (LHB), and Ken Harvey (RHB)

If you were in a Strat-o-matic league with these three players, wouldn’t you platoon Pickering and Harvey, with Sweeney at DH when Harvey was in the lineup?

If you were in a Strat-o-matic league with these three players, wouldn’t you be figuring on a cellar finish?

The Royals are featuring Harvey in some of their pre-season television ads, which suggests that they don’t have a very realistic view of his level of ability. Pickering’s major league career has been split between four clubs, but his career OBP and SLG are both higher the Royals’ all-star game participant of 2004. Despite the fact that the Royals faced only 47 left-handed starting pitchers last season, I wouldn’t bet a dime that Pickering gets more plate appearances than Harvey this season.

Both Harvey and Pickering reported to Surprise in much better shape this year, in a relative sort of way. As a local radio talking head put it, instead of NFL lineman, think NFL blocking tight end.

Sweeney is reportedly healthy, but his back problems are unlikely to ever be truly resolved. He has played in less than 110 games each of the last two seasons and I wouldn’t count on him playing more than 125 games this year.

Justin Huber, the catching prospect the Royals picked up from the Mets last summer, is now penciled in as the starting 1b at Omaha. You just can’t have too many first basemen!

Second Base – Tony Graffanino

Graffanino was slotted to split time with Desi Relaford last season at second, but when Relaford injured his knee on opening day, Graffanino became the everyday second baseman. Graffanino made two extended trips to the DL, the last a knee injury, which kept him out from August onward.

Early last season it seemed to me that Graffanino had problems tracking down pop-ups. However, he was playing along side Juan Gonzalez and Mike Sweeney, so the area he was expected to cover on pop-ups is about the same size as the infield at Kansas Speedway, so he may have been racing down bloopers that other teams right fielder catches routinely.

Ruben Gotay, the Royals minor league player of the year last season, filled in at second the final two months of the season. He did not hit well in Winter Ball, hitting just .226. His OPS was about the same as the team as a whole, but well behind the major leaguers on the team such as Yadier Molina and Cesar Crespo. The club would ideally like him to spend the majority of 2005 in Omaha, hopefully becoming the starter in 2006.

Another player that the Royals are high on is Donnie Murphy, who earned a late season call-up from Wilmington last season. He is considered to be a better fielder than Gotay, but behind as a hitter. Hopefully he takes advantage of a year with Frank White in Wichita.

With Graffanino’s injury history, it seems unlikely that he will make it thru the season. However, the Royals have not brought a reliable replacement to camp this spring if he is injured. It is doubtful that Gotay will remain in Omaha until September.

Third Base – Chris Truby, Mark Teahen

I’ve been wondering how the Royals picked Truby to be the stand in for Teahen until they can steal a year of free agency form him. When I was looking at Truby’s minor league numbers, I noticed in 2001 he had a pretty good half season in New Orleans, 71 RBI in 81 games. Tony Pena was his manager. Mystery solved.

Truby’s MLEs the last two seasons aren’t too bad.

        G    AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   Avg    OBA    Slg
2003  112   423  52  106  26   0  15   44  46  81  .251   .324   .416
2004  130   451  79  125  37   1  21   68  39 101  .277   .334   .503

AVG   121   437  66  115  32   1  18   56  42  91  .264   .329   .461

Of course, Truby does have nearly 900 plate appearances in majors with a .657 OPS, and he will be 31 this season, so his MLEs would be a big improvement on his track record.

If all goes according to plan, Teahen will come up in late May early June. I would like to see the Royals protect him with a Truby platoon a little once he arrives, but that has not been their usual pattern.

Shortstop – Angel Berroa

Rookie of the year in 2003, back in Wichita in 2004. Bothered by migraines early in the season, Berroa was lost at the plate the first two months of the season. He rebounded after the all-star break to numbers similar to his rookie season, though his home run power from 2003 stayed AWOL all season. His zips looks about right.

Berroa went backwards last season in the field too, finishing last in fielding percentage among AL starting shortstops with a .955.

Andres Blanco will be in Omaha this season, hopefully to get his bat major league ready. He may already be the best defensive shortstop in the AL - his range is tremendous. He hit .317 in 60 Abs in the majors last year, then followed it up with a .348 batting average in 23 Abs in Venezuela this winter. Small sample size seems to be the key, in Wichita he hit .247 with a .290 slugging, and a .299 OBA in 324 at-bats. The Royals should bring in Brett Butler to help him learn to bunt for base hits. Blanco turns 21 in April.

Centerfield – David DeJesus

Looks like he could be Johnny Damon, only with an average to good arm. As a base stealer he was 8 of 19 in the majors, and 7 of 13 at Omaha last year. In the two previous years in the minors he was 12 of 20.

After we heard John Wathan speak at the last KC SABR meeting about how he would be working with base stealers in Surprise this spring, I asked Bill James if he had ever looked into poor young base stealers improving. According to Bill, it’s about one out of eight. So it looks like Wathan has his work cut out for him this spring.

Corner Outfield – Long, Stairs, Guiel, Marrero, Hunter, Diaz and Nunez

"There'll be a lot of platooning and, from a tactician's standpoint, it'll be Tony's most challenging season," general manager Allard Baird said.

The first three listed above are lefties, the next three righties, and Nunez is a switch. It seems that the right-handed half of the platoon is the stronger side. Unfortunately, as mentioned above, the Royals only faced 47 left-handed pitchers last season.

The Royals’ corner outfielders last season were horrific, but it seems unlikely that this group will work out much better. Its unfortunate that not only is this a group of weak hitters, but Long and possibly Diaz are also the only two who are likely to be above average defensively.

Guiel had eye problem last season, which are reportedly resolved, so he has a shot at returning to his 2003 numbers.

When you see the fat contract a 35-year old Damian Miller got last season, it makes you wonder why Marrero isn’t getting back behind the plate. He may be costing himself a couple million per season.

On February 28, its too early to call who the team will take north, but the Royals are looking at keeping four of the above players on the major league roster. Stairs and Long are sure things, and Nunez is getting first shot in right field. If they keep a fifth from this group, Pickering goes to Omaha.

Other Bench Players

The Royals are going to take 12 pitchers north, so with five outfielders and three first basemen, they will take just one backup infielder. Chris Clapinsky is the front runner, Denny Hocking and Luis Ugueto are also in camp. The Royals like Hocking, so he may make the team if they send Pickering down.

Offensive Outlook

The team scored 720 runs last season, 90 below the league average. Missing Carlos Beltran’s half season won’t help, but the corner outfielders were so horrible last season, it seems likely they will be better this year by default. It’s hard to see them scoring much more than 720 this season unless Sweeney is healthy all year.

Starting Pitching

Guy Hansen has returned for his third tour of duty as the Royals pitching coach, and he has been the man responsible for fixing Kevin Appier and Mike MacDougald before, hopefully he remembers the secret formula.

After years of stressing pitching to contact, the Royals will be encouraging pitchers to go for more strikeouts. It’s so crazy it just might work.

Hansen has his work cut out for him this spring, with a projected starting rotation of Jose Lima, Brian Anderson, Zach Greinke and a surgically repaired Runelvys Hernandez.

The group trying out for the fifth spot includes Appier, Jimmy Gobble, Denny Bautista, Ryan Jensen, Kyle Snyder, Dennis Tankersly, and Mike Wood.

Lima returns after a year in LA, and is expected to be an innings eater. He is exactly what the Royals need this season, a guy you can use up to keep the young arms protected. Plus his enthusiasm is good in the spring, and he might be a player you can flip at the deadline for prospects.

There are sure strange stories coming out of the desert this spring about Anderson. One day it’s he might be traded, the next is he is seen in a neck brace, and the next it’s that they are overhauling his arm angle to make him more deceptive. The change-up seems to be the key pitch for him but it wasn’t fooling anyone last season. Anderson should be helped at least a little this year by not being in a rotation where three other pitchers are also left-handed soft-tossers.

Runelvys did not pitch in 2004, but is reportedly healthy and in better shape this spring. This is exactly the same report that the Royals gave for Miguel Ascencio a year ago, and he was quickly back under the knife. He is 27 this season, and has made just 28 starts in the majors. When we last saw him he was effective when getting ground balls, though his strikeout rates were always mediocre. A healthy 30-start season would be a solid accomplishment.

Greinke was the Royals pitcher of the year last season, and is only 21 this year. His only flaw seems to be giving up a lot of solo homers, he is not afraid to challenge a batter when it won’t hurt him as much. It’s a flaw that guys like Catfish Hunter, Bert Blyleven, and Fergie Jenkins had too.

Grienke has a quirky personality, and says some strange things at times. He often seems to be fooling around on the mound, throwing 55 MPH curves and even a knuckle ball. You could argue either way that this helps him or hurts him. It does keep everyone off balance, both the opposition and teammates.

Among the fifth starters, the Royals do not have a clear cut favorite. There are raves about Bautista, but it seems likely that he will open in the minors to work on his consistency. He has the most talent of the bunch.

The team has cooled on Gobble, which reminds me of the way they soured on Glendon Rusch. Rusch has made a lot of money and pitched a lot of innings in the majors since the Royals gave up on him.

Jensen has not committed to becoming a full time knuckle ball pitcher yet, I assume when you are cut by the Royals you know its time to commit to the knuckler fulltime. Tankersly and Wood apparently slotted to go back to the PCL or the Royals bullpen. Which one is a lower level?

Closer – Jeremy Affeldt

A February 21 article on KCRoyals.com in the mail bag section, a reader asked “Do you think the Royals have closed the book on Jeremy Affeldt as a starting pitcher?”

Dick Kaegel’s response, “Not necessarily.”

Hey, I’d like to see Jeremy in the rotation, but here is the thing – Put him in a role and leave him there!

If he fails as closer out of the gate this year, move him down to setup, maybe even let him pitch a couple innings at a time. But if he is a pen guy, leave him in the pen. This jerking him back and forth between the closer role and a starter has to stop, he is never going to be good at either if they keep jerking him around!

Bullpen

The Royals will keep four right-handers out of the group of MacDougal, Scott Sullivan, Nate Field, Shawn Camp, DJ Carrasco, and Justin Huisman plus any failed fifth starter candidate.

It’s just crazy to have four of these guys on the 25-man roster instead of Pickering, or Nunez or Diaz . Do you really need four of them to get to Affledt? You need to tell one of these guys and Tony Pena that his role is 2 or 3 innings at a time, and 40 appearances. Tell the guy he can vulture 10 wins if he is good in the role, and someone will make him their closer. I am sure one of them would rather do that than bounce around the PCL. If the game is truly out of hand, its time for Sisco to get that major league experience.

MacDougal should benefit from Hansen’s return, and is likely the top setup man. Of course a hot April from MacDougal could send Affeldt back into the rotation…

Sullivan is battling back problems, and would seem likely to start the season on the DL.

Pitching Outlook

The Royals were dead last in the AL in ERA last season, even with the new park dimensions. The outfield defense should be better this year, from poor to fair. Graffanino can turn the double play if healthy. Still, it’s hard to see any of the Royals starting pitchers with ERA’s much below 4.50 other than Grienke.

On the whole I think they could scrape 50 runs off their total of last season, which would still put them at the bottom of the league around 860 runs.

Overall Outlook

The team was six games below their Pythagorean projection last season, which predicted 64 rather than the 58 they had. I think 65 to 70 wins would be a good guess for this club.

There does seem to be an unusually high amount of trade rumors this spring around the club, with Sweeney and Anderson being the primary focuses of the speculation. Texas, Seattle, Arizona, and Cincinnati have all been mentioned in published reports as possible trade partners.

What I Hope to See

By the end of the season:

Good health from Greinke and Hernandez

Matt Diaz getting a legitimate shot in the show

Ruben Gotay, Andres Blanco and Justin Huber getting a season in Omaha to refine their skills

Mark Teahen making a solid debut in the majors

Jeremy Affeldt only appearing in relief this season

(Thanks to Bill Carle and Mike Emeigh for their help!)

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Sweeney      1b  .300  .379  .499 112 427 128 25  0 20  61  76  52  47  3  4 
Diaz         lf  .300  .346  .487 137 497 149 39  3 16  78  82  31  90 13  9 
Pickering*   1b  .268  .368  .507 121 406 109 20  1 25  68  77  63 133  1  0 
DeJesus*     rf  .292  .365  .424 131 483 141 24  5 10  81  52  49  70 13 13 
Harvey       1b  .275  .329  .425 127 487 134 26  1 15  55  64  34  89  2  2 
Berroa       ss  .266  .317  .409 139 526 140 27  6 12  76  57  28  90 15  7 
Gotay#       2b  .259  .327  .376 147 532 138 23  6  9  81  59  49  96 12  4 
Teahen*      3b  .265  .332  .384 136 479 127 27  3  8  65  54  45 137  2  0 
Guiel*       rf  .261  .338  .430 120 426 111 25  1 15  73  63  42 106  5  6 
Long*        lf  .273  .325  .409 130 455 124 26  3 10  59  54  34  69  3  2 
Truby        3b  .247  .308  .429 128 450 111 35  1 15  72  59  37  97  5  3 
Stairs*      rf  .254  .344  .438 119 370  94 19  2 15  42  54  47  74  1  0 
Buck         c   .259  .309  .443 124 424 110 18  0 20  53  63  30 103  2  1 
Santos*      1b  .246  .306  .401 127 451 111 21  2 15  57  57  36 124  3  1 
Aldridge*    cf  .233  .299  .397 125 433 101 17  3 16  61  52  38 141 10  6 
Marrero      rf  .290  .353  .490  98 286  83 19  1 12  45  46  28  49  5  2 
Brown#       cf  .253  .326  .328 127 458 116 16  3  4  67  38  47  77 19 17 
Clapinski#   2b  .277  .348  .418  99 325  90 21  2  7  50  43  33  58  9  7 
Huber        c   .246  .322  .397  97 325  80 17  1 10  48  41  35  74  3  1 
Murphy       2b  .213  .269  .318 139 493 105 25  3  7  58  48  34 105  2  1 
Brown        cf  .262  .314  .385  85 325  85 20  1  6  47  40  23  62  7  3 
Phillips     c   .289  .330  .383  92 311  90 15  1  4  40  34  17  38  5  3 
Ugueto#      2b  .244  .312  .339 110 357  87 14  4  4  52  35  34  91 19 14 
Nunez#       lf  .233  .311  .363 109 322  75 16  1  8  47  37  36  84  7  5 
Febles       2b  .251  .317  .341  91 299  75 14  2  3  44  25  27  49 11  7 
Graffanino   ss  .253  .325  .352  78 261  66 12  1  4  38  26  26  37  7  1 
Blanco#      ss  .234  .284  .281 115 384  90 12  3  0  50  23  24  52 10  6 
Castillo     c   .237  .319  .304  65 207  49 11  0  1  20  18  24  27  0  2 
Hocking#     2b  .239  .298  .327  92 205  49 12  0  2  24  19  17  40  0  2 

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Affeldt*     4.15   4   5  38  13   102.0  105   47   36   77   8 
Hernandez    4.35   8   9  24  23   149.0  161   72   51   97  12 
Camp         4.50   2   3  52   0    76.0   80   38   25   62  10 
Cerda*       4.50   2   3  54   0    56.0   56   28   29   43   3 
Greinke      4.50   9  11  27  27   156.0  176   78   29  109  24 
Trujillo     4.56   5   7  57   1    81.0   87   41   31   56   8 
Wood         4.59   9  11  27  26   151.0  169   77   46   93  17 
Huisman      4.65   3   4  47   0    60.0   67   31   21   37   6 
Carrasco     4.76   4   5  57   1    87.0   93   46   39   60   8 
Lima         4.85   6   9  29  20   128.0  143   69   30   70  24 
Snyder       4.89   3   5  21  21   103.0  122   56   27   53  14 
Ramirez      5.05   4   5  50   0    73.0   71   41   47   66   6 
Bass         5.10   5   8  22  22   120.0  133   68   57   76  12 
Sullivan     5.16   3   5  61   0    68.0   74   39   31   52   9 
Bautista     5.20   7  12  30  28   166.0  173   96  102  122  14 
Anderson*    5.33   7  13  34  27   174.0  217  103   46   77  28 
Appier       5.45   7  12  26  26   142.0  167   86   61   78  19 
Gobble*      5.52   7  14  28  27   155.0  190   95   52   77  25 
Jensen       5.59   6   9  31  26   153.0  170   95   75   95  25 
George*      5.71   7  13  29  27   153.0  182   97   73   80  21 
Field        5.73   2   4  49   1    55.0   62   35   30   37   8 
Baerlocher   5.79   4   7  26  16   115.0  135   74   55   69  18 
Tankersley   5.86   5  10  30  26   152.0  173   99   85  104  23 
MacDougal    6.53   2   5  45   5    62.0   65   45   61   45   5