Looking Forwad to 2008: San Francisco Giants

Without Barry Bonds, the San Francisco Giants are finally free to make their own destiny.  No more trumped up media destiny.  No ESPN game breaks to view the team’s former leftfielder.  No more chemistry destroying recliner and special treatment.  No more federal indictments and perjury charges hanging like the sword of Damocles over the clubs head.  No more associates with BALCO.  No more reason to watch the worst team in Major League Baseball.

Bonds long shadow has been removed, and along with it any semblance of a competitive team.  And no matter what you may think of Bonds here at BBTF, the fans in San Francisco loved the slugger.  They cheered him at his worst and at his best.  He was very much their guy.  But now he’s gone, and that will almost certainly affect ticket sales for the Giants as well.  They won’t have a chase for the home run record to district them from the lousy product on the field.

And what a lousy product it is.  The man given an 8 year contract to be the teams ace, Barry Zito instead put up 196 innings of a 98 ERA+.  Ray Durham went from a top offensive second baseman to toast in fifteen seconds flat.  Omar Vizquel’s glove never slumped, but his bat limp-noodle its way to a 62 OPS+.  Dave Roberts brought in to play center, couldn’t hit a lick and played poor defense.  Randy Winn did at least bounce back from his awful 2006 campaign to post a 105 OPS+, but as a corner outfielder, that’s not a number to be proud of.  All these players are still around, all of them are starting (or will be, in Vizquel’s case), and all of them are likely to be worse this year (maybe not Zito).

GM Brian Sabean was once one of the more successful GMs in the game, consistently coming up with stop gaps and above average players to mold around his superstar slugger.  He could find an Ellis Burks here, a Moises Alou there, a Rich Aurilla, a JT Snow, a Randy Winn, a Ray Durham, hell, a Tsuyoshi Shinjo without much cost, while showing a decent tendency for developing pitchers.  Those days are long gone, as Sabean’s big move this year was bringing in former Philly Aaron Rowand to man center and bat third.  While Rowand put up a 123 OPS+ last year, his previous two years were horrible, and Rowand’s play lends itself to injury.  The contract isn’t necessarily bad, but it doesn’t seem to fit the Giant of 2008.

The other problem with rebuilding the Giants is that they have a foundation of swamp land.  There is very little talent in the system.  John Sickel’s rates Angel Villalona as the Giants top prospect with a B+ rating.  Other systems have him more highly rated, but that’s just about it for the position player side of the farm system.  They have some promising young pitchers, but if there’s one thing the Giants have, its young pitching.  Add in the fact that Sabean has allowed some free talent that could have helped his team now and in the future (Ruben Gotay, Justin Huber, for quick examples) slip through his fingers, the Giants look stuck in the mud.  Their only hope now is an elite prospect in the next draft, and a willingness by Sabean to draft him.  They might be Giants, but they’re going to get stomped this year.

ZiPs used for offensive numbers.  UZR numbers used are three year averages unless otherwise noted, or as for these Giants, they happen to exist.  Read this preview my cause uncontrollable sobbing in the Giants faithful.  This preview is not dishwasher safe.  Do not immerse, clean with dry towel only. 

This So Called Offense:

Catchers:
Benji Molina( .276/.298/.433;86 OPS+;60 RC in 517 PA)(32% CS)(Age:  33)
ZiPs:( .267/.300/.403;45.1 RC in 409 PA)(30% CS)
Guillermo Rodriguez(. 253/.327/.356;77 OPS+;10 RC in 98 PA)(29% CS) (Age: 30)
ZiPs:(.233/.292/.375;19.3 RC in 191 PA)(30% CS)

This is perhaps the Giants second strongest spot overall, and features their third best hitter.  Its very, very disheartening for me to say that.  Benji Molina is a perfectly adequate catcher, and his offense is about average for the position.  I fully expect him to meet his ZiPs and have more PA than he’s given up there.  On a good club, he’d hit 7th or 8th and no one would notice his existence.  He should be hitting fourth on this team.

Guillermo Rodriguez is a back up catcher.  At 30, he’s got no upside at all.  He doesn’t appear to have a particularly strong arm.  His bat is non existent, and there’s nothing in his track record that gives hope for the future.  As backup catcher’s go, he’s bad.  At some point we’ll see Eliezer Alfonzo, who is precisely as good as Guillermo Rodriguez and one year younger.

Even with a putrid backup catcher, this is the Giants second best position.  Think about that for a second.  On second thought don’t, before the despair overwhelms you and the Old Ones win.  On the other hand, Molina should be worth something in trade.  He’s be a nice fit for several contenders as a backup, and a couple of teams (Brewers, Mets) as a starter.  He should pull something in a trade, and even if it’s a C-level prospect, the Giants could even use that.  If Molina is still playing for this club on July 31, Sabean should be fired. (Steve Holm?  That’s a funny way to spell Guillermo Rodriguez.) (78 RC)

Players standing at 1st Base:
Dan Ortmeier(.287/.317/.497;107 OPS+;25 RC in 167 PA)(UZR: 0,Rep: Good)(Age: 27)
ZiPs:( .255/.306/.407;53.8 RC in 481 PA)(+5 D)
Rich Aurilia(. 252/.304/.368;73 OPS+;36 RC in 358 PA)(UZR:  +25,Rep: Excellent)(Age: 36)
ZiPs:(.262/.314/.398;34.5 RC in 279 AB)(+10 D)

Dan Ortmeier is a versatile back-up, capable of playing the corners and making a decent amount of contact.  His line from last year might represent his top of the line offensively, as he’s never hit in the minors.  If he’d be a nice reserve on almost any team.  As a starting first baseman, I think you no the answer.  At least he’s got a good glove.  When there’s not an ounce of difference offensively between your average starting catcher and your first baseman, you’ve got trouble.

Rich Aurilla is an impressive specimen.  Most players would have bled to death with a fork that big sticking out of their back.  His last hurrah in Cincinnati in 2006 is a distant memory, and his offense is no longer adequate for shortstop, much less first.  As a result, he’ll be the Giants top bat off the bench.  Echoing Ortmeier, at least he’s got a good glove.

How on earth was Sabean not in on the Justin Huber trade?  The Padres grabbed him for a PTBNL, and they don’t even have a place to play him.  Huber’s not a great player.  His defense is awful, and he looks a bit below average offensively at first.  He’d be a tremendous upgrade at first for the Giants, and he’d at least have upside, something the 27 year old Ortmeier lacks.  We don’t know the inner workings of GMing, we don’t know how transactions like the Huber come into being.  If Sabean hasn’t been calling up every GM with a blocked player, it’s bad.  If Sabean did call up the Royals about Huber, and couldn’t convince them to part with him, it’s incompetence.(87 RC)

The 2nd Base corps(e):
Ray Durham(.218/.295/.343;65 OPS+;47 RC in 528 PA)(UZR:-3,Rep: Bad)(Age:  36)
ZiPs:(.242/.319/.382;52.4 RC in 470 PA)(-5 D)
Eugenio Velez( 1.000/1.000/1.000;469 OPS+;1 RC in 1 PA)(UZR: N/A,Rep: Good)(Age: 26)
ZiPs:(.271/.315/.398;47.5 RC in 425 PA)(+5 D)

This is not the worst position on the team.  I say again, this is not the worst position on the team.  The smell of toast follows Ray Durham wherever he goes.  Birds land on him, attempting to find a spare crumb.  ZiPs sees a bit of a dead cat bounce in him.  I expect him to come closer to his 2007 line, and post a bad defensive year to boot.  And he complained about losing playing time to the now injured Kevin Frandsen.  They’d cut him, but there are no better options on the team.

Eugenio Velez is one heck of a hitter.  Last year, they couldn’t get him out!  Look at that 469 OPS+!  Who needs Barry...what do you mean it was only one AB?  On this team, we need all the optimism we can get.  Velez is 26, and so qualifies as young on this team.  He put up a .743 OPS in AAA last year, has no power, an unexceptional batting eye, and probably tops out at .275 at ML level.  He does have a good fielding rep, which likely makes him a better option than Durham at this point.  Still, he’s not a major league caliber player on any other team.

Second base is yet another missed opportunity for Sabean, and one where he doesn’t have any excuse whatsoever.  Recently, the New York Mets place 2nd bagger Ruben Gotay on waivers, after he put up a .295/.351/.421 line amounting to a 102 OPS+.  Gotay’s all of 25, pure upside, and would have cost the Giants absolutely fracking nothing!  No, Gotay’s not a good fielder, but neither is Durham.  Sabean had already shown a willingness to bench Durham for Frandsen, so it can’t be loyalty to the player.  It makes no sense, and is another sign of Sabean’s decline.  Once, he could find free talent, but not anymore. (97 RC)

A Shortstop from the edge of a cliff:
Brian Bocock(.243/.312/.344 at AAA)(UZR: N/A,Rep:  Excellent)(Age: 23)
ZiPs:(.200/.248/.268;33.9 RC in 612 PA)(+10 D)
Omar Vizquel(.246/.305/.316;62 OPS+;49 RC in 575 PA)(UZR: +8,Rep:  Excellent)(Age: 41)
ZiPs:(.249/.314/.308;47.5 RC in 524 PA)(+15 D)
Eugenio Velez(see 2nd base)

What to my wondering eye should appear, but a young player, not sign of a beard.  Yet, still not a prospect by any stretch.  Brian Bocock hasn’t hit anywhere, and unless he’s Adam Everett with the glove, he’s got the opportunity to be the worst player in baseball.  At least he can tell his mom he won something.  He’s just filling in for an injury, and but seems likely to stay on the roster once Vizquel returns as the minor league system has no real SS in it.  When you could use Jorge Velandia, you know your depth is thin.

This is the worst position on the Giants, and one of the worst positions in baseball.  Omar Vizquel was +20 with the glove last year, but his three year average is no where near that good.  I have him dropping off a bit,but would be unsurprised if his defense cratered due to age and injury.  Counting on a 41 year old shortstop to continue being an elite defender is a fools bet.  His bat is a chimera, legendary and mythical.  Velez will get some time here as well.

When shopping on the cheap, SS has become a defense only position.  The Vizquel contract was justified as such, but he’s 41, banged up, and the odds are against him becoming an elite fielder.  All together, the Giants will be luck to generate 60 runs out of this position, and if the gloves fall apart, this is the worst position in the majors.  The minors do feature journeyman Nunez, who’s no better a hitter than Vizquel, and not a very good fielder at SS.  Oh, well.  (60 RC)

Getting to 3rd Base with Sally Strothers:
Jose Castillo(.244/.270/.335;57 OPS+;17 RC in 230 PA)(UZR: -15(2nd),Rep:  Bad)(Age:  27)
ZiPs:(.259/.307/.382;45 RC in 426 AB)(-5 D)
Rich Aurillia(see 1st base)
Eugenio Velez(see 2nd base)

Maybe I spoke too soon.  This is the worst position in the majors.  Jose Castillo now features a wonderful career 75 OPS+, which he has earned.  He’s also bad defensively, and his small body of work at third base came up to a -75 UZR (thanks small sample!).  He was bad at second, and is worse at third, and there’s no help coming.  Its sad when you’re team would be better off with the smoldering remains of Rich Aurilla starting at the hot corner.  At 27, he’s in his prime, but when the upside is a 75 OPS+, why bother.

Castillo was the loser of the be Miguel Cabrera’s replacement free-for-all with the Marlins, with Jorge Cantu winning the spot, and Dallas McPherson taking a spot in the minors.  The real question is, why wasn’t that free for all happening with the Giants?  The Marlin’s made the right choice in discarding Castillo, but nothing made the Giants offer invite.  And with guy’s like Andy Phillips always bouncing around, there’s no excuse for having a player as worthless as Jose Castillo playing 3rd base for your team. (50 RC)

Get out of Leftfield:
Dave Roberts(.260/.331/.364;80 OPS+;53 RC in 442 PA)(UZR: -5(CF),Rep: Good)(Age: 36)
ZiPs(.266/.339/.372;53.5 RC in 442 PA)(+5 D)
Fred Lewis(.287/.374/.408;103 OPS+;25 RC in 180 PA)(UZR: 0, Rep: Average)(Age: 27)
ZiPs(.255/.338/.384;54 in 463 PA)(+5 D)

Dave Roberts is a nice little fourth outfielder at this stage.  He’s a capable defender in center, steals a few bases, and doesn’t kill you with the bat.  Unless of course he’s your starting left fielder.  In that case, he kills you.  His glove will be good, be his bat will resemble a noodle.

I like Fred Lewis quite a bit more than ZiPs does.  I think he can approximiate that 100 OPS+ next year while being a defensive asset.  He’ll be below average for a left fielder, but on this Giants team, he’ll be one of the better players.  However, he’s one of the few assets on this team that might bring back a B-level prospect, so I could see him being gone by the trade deadline.  If he sticks around, I expect him to take the job from Roberts.

Roberts is owed $6.5 million in ‘08 and $6.5 million in ‘09.  He’s vastly over paid, and the Giants will have to pay his ticket out of town to get anything for him.  He’d make a nice upgrade on several teams’ benches, however.  Lewis is a nice little player, around an average CF and an excellent reserve.  It’d be nice if they could fetch an Alexi Casilla level prospect for him, but that’s not exactly Sabean’s forte. (119 RC)

Centerfield:
Aaron Rowand(.309/.374/.515;123 OPS+;116 RC in 684 PA)(UZR: +16,Rep: Excellent)(Age: 30)
ZiPs(.278/.340/.429;77.6 RC in 587 PA)(+15 D)
Rajai Davis(.279/.361/.374;92 OPS+;30 RC in 219 PA)(UZR:N/A, Rep: Good)(Age: 27)
ZiPs(.263/.325/.357;48.3 RC in 452)(+5 D)
Fred Lewis(See LF)

Aaron Rowand was the big off-season acquisition.  He was signed to an imminently reasonable contract, and though he won’t hit like last year, he’s a solid player.  But the Giants are a long way from contention, and Rowand’s already 30.  Still, he’ll be the Giants best player for the next couple of years, and give them great production for a centerfielder.

Rajai Davis hit well last year, and it amounted to a 92 OPS+.  Davis is a slap hitting speedster, and a credible fifth outfielder.  I side with the ZiPs projection on Davis, and think he’ll be less future starter, more future AAA-MLB shuttle fodder.  Still, its not a bad haul for the smoldering remains of Matt Morris.

Could Rowand’s money have been better spent elsewhere?  Rowand was one of the best free agents available, and probably the one with the best future outlook.  If you have to make a free agent signing this off season, Rowand’s a good one, and his contract’s also good.  I’m just not sure he fits with the current Giants, but he’s not a bad signing, and a positive for Sabean.(100 RC)

Rightfield:
Randy Winn(.300/.353/.445;105 OPS+;95 RC in 653 PA)(UZR: +16,Rep: Good)
ZiPs:(.282/.338/.429;77.7 RC in 591 PA)(UZR: +15)
Rajai Davis(see CF)
Fred Lewis(see LF)

If Catcher isn’t the teams second strongest spot, RF is.  Randy Winn had a horrible 2006, but bounced back with a 105 OPS+ last year.  Add in excellent defense, and you’ve got a slightly below average corner outfielder.  Unfortunately he’s owed $8 million in ‘08 and $8.25 million in ‘09, and he’s got a limited no trade clause.  Its a shame, too, as he’d be a nice fit on several different clubs as a CF, and an upgrade at the fourth outfielder position for almost all of them.  If the Giants eat his contract, he might pull in a decent prospect, but they’ve shown no willingness to eat contracts as of yet.  Until that point, he’s a decent, if below average hitter, with a good glove, and is solid overall.  One of the few spots on the team that doesn’t actively hurt the Giants chances; unless he reverts to ‘06 form, but we’re going to be optimistic here and agree with ZiPs.  (80 RC)(671 Runs Total)

Farm System:  AH HA HA HA HA!  Seriously, Nate Schierholtz is probably better than Dan Ortmeier, and he does swing a better bat than Rajai Davis.  He’s 24, which makes him old for a prospect, but his future is certainly much brighter than Dave Roberts.  The fact that’s he’s in AAA watching Roberts, Winn, and to a lesser extent Ortmeier take up ABs speaks to the legitimacy of the Giants rebuilding.  Villalona might help someday, maybe as soon as the middle of next year.  But other than those two, all that’s left are random journeymen flotsam for covering injuries, and there’s not enough of that, really.  The failure to even keep the AAA team stocked with replacement level talent is a sad indictment of GM Brian Sabean.  The best player at Fresno outside of Schierholtz is no better and in fact is actively worse than Rajai Davis or Eugenio Velez, and that’s just not acceptable.  Brian Bocock is the opening day starting shortstop for a reason, and it’s not a good one.

The Bright side of the Giants:  Pitching:

Starting Rotation:
Barry Zito(4.53 ERA;83/131 BB/K;196.7 IP;98 ERA+)
ZiPs:(3.99 ERA;90/159 BB/K;210 IP;102 RA)
Matt Cain(3.65 ERA;79/163 BB/K;200 IP;122+ ERA+)
ZiPs:(3.63 ERA;76/173 BB/K;206 IP;91 RA)
Tim Lincecum(4.00 ERA;65/150 BB/K;146.3 IP;111 ERA+)
ZiPs:(3.28 ERA;67/173 BB/K;173 IP;69 RA)
Johnathan Sanchez(5.88 ERA;28/62 BB/K;52 IP;75 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.77 ERA;44/96 BB/K;115 IP;67 RA)
Noah Lowry(3.92 ERA;87;87 BB/K;156 IP;113 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.32 ERA;73/112 BB/K;159 IP;94 RA)

Barry Zito signed the biggest contract for a pitcher in the history of the game.  He is, at best, #3 on a very strong San Francisco staff.  The problem is, last year he was, at best, a #3 starter.  His contract looked crazy when he signed it, it looks more so now.  ZiPs and I both expect him to be better this year, but with his lack of command, he’s not going to turn into a Tom Glavine type nibbler.  So if he has lost it, it could be uglier than you expect. (102 RA, 210 IP)

Matt Cain is the true ace of the Giants staff.  A homegrown product, Cain was excellent last year, putting up a 122 ERA+ in 200 innings pitched.  Cain is expected to be similarly effective this year, and at 24, he’s got more than a bit of room to grow (and is the same age as Tim Lincecum).  Cain’s also thrown 390 innings in the past two years, so he’s got plenty of time to watch his arm turn to jelly.  Somehow, Cain managed to lose 16 games last year.  That’s probably an optimistic number for this year’s club. (91 RA, 206 IP)

Tim Lincecum is an amazingly fun pitcher to watch, and he’s already made the teams who passed him up look stupid (Luke Hochevar, how you doin’, buddy?).  He’s short for a pitcher (5’11”, which is about normal in the boring world), but he throws heat.  Lincecum wasn’t as dominate last year as some people expected him to be, and I expect him to fall short of his projection, and end up with a line very similar to Zito’s, just in less innings.  Now in the future, he’s an ace, just wait another year.  (78 RA, 175 IP)

Jonathan Sanchez was almost turned into Joe Crede.  Unless Crede was going to turn into a magic beanstalk that led to a land of treasure, it seems a bit lopsided.  Sanchez is a hard throwing lefthander with good minor league success who’s all of 25.  Crede is a 30 yr old third baseman who makes Scott Rolen look like the pinnacle of health.  Yes the Giants’ current 3rd baseman is one of the worst players in the majors, but the Giants as a team are the worst team in the majors.  Trading 25 year old starters for 30 year old has beens is not a rebuilding move.  It’s not even a good move if you’re contending.  As for Sanchez’s production this year, ZiPs probably has the right of it, including the innings as some of his innings will be taken by Kevin Correia.  (67 RA, 115 IP)

Noah Lowry does it with smoke and mirror.  Since his excellent sophomore season, Lowry’s been a different pitcher.  He went from a wild pitcher who Ks lots of guys and walks his share, to a guy who walks his share.  Though his ERA+ was nice last year, his 1:1 BB/K portends poorly for future success.  He’ll start the year on the DL, with Kevin Correia taking some his starts.  Either way, that Lowry projection looks off.  I’m expecting an ERA closer to 5.00 in, say, 159 innings.  (90 RA, 159 IP) (425 RA, 869 IP)

Bullpen:
Kevin Correia(3.45 ERA;40/80 BB/K;101.7 IP;129 ERA+)
ZiPs:(3.68 ERA;35/74 BB/K;93 IP;41 RA)
Tyler Walker(1.26 ERA;4/9 BB/K;14.3 IP;353 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.78 ERA;20/37 BB/K;49 IP;28 RA)
Jack Taschner(5.40 ERA;29/51 BB/K;50 IP;82 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.36 ERA;31/62 BB/K;66 IP;35 RA)
Erick Threets(19.29 ERA;3/1 BB/K;2.3 IP;23 ERA+)
ZiPs:(5.24 ERA;42/39 BB/KK;67 IP;42 RA)
Merkin Valdez(DNP)
ZiPs:(6.00 ERA;51/64 BB/K;90 IP;66 RA)
Keiichi Yabu(DNP)
ZiPs:(DNP)

Kevin Correia is currently penciled in as the fourth starter, but I think he’ll be passed up by Jonathan Sanchez in short order.  He’s a good reliever, a decent starter, and an excellent swing man.  He’ll probably pitch a few more innings than cited above, around 120 or so, and I think his ERA will rise a little as well, maybe to around 4.00. (53 RA,120 IP)

Tyler Walker is a generic middle reliever.  He’s 32, capable of pitching back-to-back days, is consistently mediocre, and will spend some time in Fresno.  One baseballs more boring creatures; I like the ZiPs on him.  (29 RA, 49 IP)

Jack Taschner had a peripheral defying year, putting up a horrid ERA despite striking out a batter an inning with decent command.  He doesn’t allow an overabundance of homers either.  As a result, I expect this lefty’s ERA to drop.  His ZiPs looks about right.  (35 RA, 66 IP)

Erick Threets is a minor league relief prospect over varying success in the minors.  His BB/K ratios have always outstripped his ERAs, and it’s not like he strikes out a lot of guys anyway.  However, he’s a lefty, throws hard, and 26, so he’s got years and years of mediocrity ahead.  I do expect him to exceed his ZiPs, with say a 4.80 ERA.  Yeah, that’s really going out on a limb, I know.  (36 RA; 67 IP)

Merkin Valdez was once the top pitching prospect in the Giants system.  Injuries change a prospects status, and here he is battling for a bullpen spot.  I truthfully have no idea what to expect from him at this point, and I doubt anyone else does either.  He looked dominate this spring.  I do know this, if he has a 6.00 ERA, he’s no pitching 90 innings, and if he pitches 90 innings, he’s been at least mediocre.  I’m going to be optimistic and project him at a 4.00 ERA in 90 innings, because this preview needs some optimism.  (40 RA, 90 IP)

Keiichi Yabu has been out of baseball since 2005 (or at least I can’t find any numbers on him).  Dan didn’t bother to project him either, and that says a lot.  I’m not sure why the Giants brought him in, either, as he wasn’t great the last time he pitched, and he’s now 39.  Oh, that explains it.  I think its going to be ugly from Yabu, and I think it’ll be short.  I also think the innings currently slated to go to him will go to Merkin Valdez, so its all good.  I’m thinking something like a mid-5 ERA in seventy innings amassed over the course of multiple trips to the minors with some spot starting thrown in.  Maybe he and Tyler Walker can bond on bus rides!  (46 RA, 70 IP) (239 RA, 462 IP)

Setup:
Brad Hennessey(3.42 ERA;23/40 BB/K;68.3 IP;130 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.01 ERA;32/49 BB/K;83 IP;40 RA)

Last years closer, Hennessey’s a good pitcher, and will probably continue to be one.  He real came into his own when the Giants stopped using him as a swing man and let him concentrate on one role.  He should make a nice set-up guy, and it’s not hard to squint and see a guy that could go multiple innings at once.  This is another guy that could bring a decent prospect in trade, and at 29, he’s not young, which makes this another test of Sabean’s acumen.  Hennessey’ll beat that, as I expect a repeat of last years line, only in more innings.  (30 RA, 80 IP)

Closer:
Brian Wilson(2.28 ERA;7/28 BB/K;23.7 IP;194 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.43 ERA;28/49 BB/K;63 IP;26 RA)

Good, good, good, good, vibrations.  Wilson dominated in his short stint last year, a continuation of his dominance in the minors.  He strikes guy’s out at a truly excellent rate, doesn’t allow homers, what’s not to like?  So long as he doesn’t start hearing voices, or get involved in a contentious lawsuit with Mike Love, he could be one of the better closers in baseball.  He’s 26, in his prime, and should bring a prospect in trade, because, let’s face, the Giants don’t need a good closer that much, and their a ways from being competitive.  With a bullpen front end of Wilson, Hennessey, and Correia, the Giants relief corps is as strong as the starting rotation.  There’s going to be lots of low scoring games at AT&T this year. I expect an ERA closer to 3, maybe 3.00, in about 55 innings or so.  I just don’t expect them to have many leads going into the ninth inning.  (19 RA, 55 IP)(712 RA,1466 IP)

Manager:  Bruce Botche (1023-1068, .489 Win%, 2008 projection:  75-87 .469 Win%)

Now that’s a surprising projection, and not one I thought I’d be making.  Try as I might, I can’t find a huge flaw in Dan’s projections, or in my guesses.  They aren’t going to score any runs, but that staff is possibly the best in baseball.  If Sanchez develops, and I think he’s capable of a 115 ERA+ this year, they’ll have the strongest front of the rotation in baseball.  Their bullpen is quite good as well, with an excellent swingman in Correia, a good setup guy in Hennessey, and I guy I think could become one of the better closers in the game in Wilson.  If Merkin Valdez steps up, it’s going to be next to impossible to score against these Giants.  Even the depths of the bullpenis filled with serviceable relievers, and the farm system can keep churning them out.  Only Yabu’s a real head scratcher, and he’s a guy who’ll likely get some spot starts and stink up the joint, but hang around for veteran presency goodness.

So what should the Giants do?  You have ONE position player around whom you could build in Rowand, and one prospect of any count in the minors in Villalona.  You have a couple of players who might bring C prospects if you eat their contracts in Winn and Roberts, one guy who could bring in a C prospect whenever in Molina, and three relievers who might bring in a B-prospect or two.  They only non-untouchable guy on the team likely to bring back an impact player is Jonathan Sanchez, and his name is being bandied about in Joe Crede trade rumors.  And the temptation to leave Lincecum and Cain in just a bit longer is going to be strong, and if they get injured, it’s a 100 loss season.

Sabean needs to rid the team of Roberts and give that job to Fred Lewis.  Then he needs to find a taker for Winn, for anything or nothing, and give that job to Scheirholtz.  Then he should shop the relievers at his leisure, and hope he can pull of the equivalent of a Urbina-Gonzalez trade.  Otherwise, this team is in such dreadful shape, and the only person you can pin it on is Sabean.  His inability in the past few years to find free talent, coupled with his inability to develop anything at all in the farm system has led to this.  I expect them to miss that projection up above due to extreme lack of depth should an injury occur, and end up around 70 wins.  Otherwise, enjoy the best pitching staff in the game Giants fans!

Special thanks to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPs projections, Sean Foreman and his amazing Baseball Reference, Jim Furtardo for BBTF, and Sam Hutcheson for his help in getting my Looking Forwards… put onto this site.