Looking Forward to 2008:  Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins ended their 6 year run of winning seasons in 2007, dropping 17 wins to a 79-83 record.  During the previous five years, the Twins had been one of the model franchises in baseball, winning 520 games with an average payroll less than $60 million a year.  Almost all the team’s key contributors came from one of the games strongest farm systems, and oh, what a farm system it was.  It produced several MVP Candidates , including four who played a key role for the team in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau (who won it), Torii Hunter, and Corey Koskie (check out his 2003 season, all that and gold glove defense), and one who would win two World Series in Boston (doh!).  It produced a multitude of good pitchers, including long time vet Brad Radke, Kyle Lohse, and a number of top notch relievers.  GM Terry Ryan also had a knack for finding free talent during the early days, snagging Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft, grabbing David Ortiz for the remains of Dave Hollins, and Jason Bartlett for the never used Brian Buchannan, and seeming to never make a mistake when trading a veteran for prospects.

Much as the rise of the Twins was built on a foundation of an excellent farm system and a knack for finding undervalued players, they fall because of a now weak farm system and a fetish for awful veterans.  A farm system that used to churn out above average hitters like Jacque Jones and Michael Cuddyer hasn’t been able to produce even above replacement level position player talent for the past several years.  The only internally grown prospects to compete for jobs in the field this year were Denard Span, a punch-less centerfielder, and Alexi Casilla (acquired from the Angels, developed by the Twins), who’s extreme lack of power makes him unlikely to carry his exceptional OBP to the big leagues.

Their fondness for veterans has also begun to threaten the team.  In 2006, when the team won 96 games, it was in spite of their fondness for veterans.  That off season they picked up three vets: Ramon Ortiz, Juan Castro, and Tony Batista.  All three were horrendous for a Twins team that had strong internal options at the three of the positions they took up.  Their inability to trust the very source of talent that made them contenders cost them several games in April, when those acquisitions proved to the Twins what everyone else knew:  they were awful.  Then they took the same road in 2007, giving Sidney Ponson and Rondell White everyday jobs despite their poor performance the previous year.  Compounded the matter was their scouting failure of Nick Punto, confusing the utility man’s fluke decent 2006 with real improvement.  Their reward was one of the worst offensive seasons by a regular in recent history.  2008 also shows that the Twins don’t trust the resources at hand, trading for a washed up Craig Monroe and by inking the very much done Livan Hernandez to a contract despite the large number of pitching prospects waiting at Triple-A Rochester.

The Twins also made a number of dubious decisions starting from just before the trade deadline in 2007.  After somewhat pernicious negotiations with face of the franchise centerfielder Torii Hunter, it became clear that the Twins couldn’t afford him.  Rather than cashing in their chips on Hunter, they traded Luis Castillo for a couple of minor leaguers and let Hunter walk as a free agent.  Then, with long-time GM Terry Ryan stepping down, GM Bill Smith over played his hand in the Johan Santana deal, getting a four prospects from the Mets, but none with sure-thing high impact potential.  The keys to the trade, Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, are toolsy, but completely unproven minor leaguers, Gomez being a speedy slap hitter and Guerra the equivalent of a scratch off card.  The other two players in the trade, Kevin Mulvey and Phillip Humber, profile as no more than back of the rotation starters, something the Twins have en mass.  The trade for Delmon Young looks better, with the team finally trading surplus (Matt Garza) for deficit (the aforementioned Young), but Young does not come without his share of question marks, though his aggressive style does fit with the teams overall hitting philosophy.

Then the Twins did something else highly unexpected, shelling out large long term contracts to Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan.  Morneau, the 2006 MVP, signed a 6-year/$80 million contract, Cuddyer signed a 3 year/$24 million, and Nathan signed a 4/$47 million contract.  Taken as a whole, none of these contracts are bad.  Morneau’s a good 1st baseman who profiles to age well, Cuddyer’s contract is safely below market value, and Nathan is the games best closer.  But all together, the movse are somewhat puzzling.  The team is likely setting contention based on 2010, when their new ballpark opens, but only Morneau’s is guaranteed past 2011, and even he will be past his prime at that point.  The teams best player, catcher Joe Mauer walks at the end of the 2010 season.  The big outlays of cash at this stage seem unwise, especially in light of the Twins unwillingness to sign the best pitcher in baseball to an extension.  General wisdom goes, better to sign one superstar than three good players, and a large outlay of cash for a closer is rarely wise for a small market team.

The Twins seem to be stuck in the ether, not quite rebuilding and not quite contending.  The core of this team will be in decline by 2010, but seems unlikely to make it over the hump in a strong American League Central.  They look less like the contraction candidate team of 2001, a team of good young players who came out of no where, and more like the team of 2007, a team of cranky veterans who lacked the firepower to get over the hump.  Unless the team is willing to start drafting more aggressively or trade find an impact bat, something Delmon Young has yet to be, Michael Cuddyer is not, Carlos Gomez is unlikely to become, they will stay that way.  As is they’re not a bad team, but currently looking at their farm system and current young talent, they just don’t have much upside.  Instead, they’re a team broke down on the side of the road, its once bright lights slowly growing dimmer as the battery that made it run dies from lack of charge.

ZiPs used for offensive numbers.  UZR numbers used are three year averages unless otherwise noted, or as for these Twins, they happen to exist.  RC totals are for the projections listed at that position, which means Little Nicky Punto’s RC projection is aggregated in 3rd Base total, even though it’s for all his playing time at all his positions.  Reading this preview is unlikely to lead to cheering, cheerleaders, or leading cheers.  If you disagree with this preview, you are likely right.  I apologize for my impertinence.

Offense:

Catchers:
Joe Mauer(.293/.382/.426;117 OPS+;68 RC in 471 PA) (52% CS)
ZiPs( .315/.404/.458;90 RC in 504 PA)
Mike Redmond(.294/.346/.353;89 OPS+;32 RC in 298 PA)(41% CS)
ZiPs( .299/.342/.362;21 RC in 186 PA)

Joe Mauer is the best catcher in baseball and on the short list of the best players in baseball.  He hits for average, gets on base, and has a little pop in his bat.  Add in the fact that his defense is Gold Glove worthy behind the plate, and he’s a down ballot MVP candidate in a down year.  Criticized as being soft by team leader Torii Hunter, Hunter should really STFU.  He’s the Twins best player, but he’s often mentioned as a candidate to switch positions.  At 3rd base, he goes from MVP candidate to just good with the bat.  ZiPs looks pretty good.

Mike Redmond is the chair of the International Brotherhood of Back-up Catchers, and the ideal to which all subscribe.  He hits well, but not so well you want to start him.  His defense is good, but not elite enough to steal time away from the starter.  He’s cheap, right handed, and has a reputation as a good clubhouse guy.  Now if Ron Gardenhire would stop using him as a DH, the Twins would be better off.  I’ll take the ZiPs on Redmond, he’s as known a quantity as any back-up catcher in baseball.

The man Mauer is most often compared to is Craig Biggio, who was moved off the catcher’s position to save his bat.  The thing is, Biggio was moved to a position with an attrition rate very little different than that of catcher, 2nd base.  I think it’s true that moving off catcher saved Biggio’s wheels, but I’m less certain that he wouldn’t have played just as long at catcher.  Mauer, however, does have recurring knee problems, but that could be solved by fifty games a year at DH.  Of course, if the Twins let Mauer walk after 2010, it might be a decision for another team to make. (102 RC)

1st Base:
Justin Morneau(.271/.343/.492;121 OPS+;98 RC in 668 PA)(0 UZR)
ZiPs( .283/.355/.527;96 RC in 558 PA)

Justin Morneau did not deserve the MVP he got in 2006.  Yes, the BWAA only cares about defense when it’s defending a guy it likes, not when it comes to awards.  Yes, Morneau declined last year.  Morneau is still one of the best 1st sackers in baseball, he’s okay defensively, and his contract is not a crippler.  I feel Morneau’s an athletic enough player to put up at least a 121 OPS+ for the first half of the contract, with some spikes higher than that.  Having said that, he’s still not the franchises best player, and he’s a lot more likely to put up a 121 OPS+ than a 140 going forward.  Having said that, he’ll probably have at least one more season comparable to his 2006, but you’ve got me as to when.  ZiPs is probably right this year.  (96 RC)

2nd Base:
Brendan Harris(.286/.343/.434;106 OPS+;74 RC in 576 PA)(-22 UZR)
ZiPs( .270/.332/.404;66 RC in 538 PA)
Matt Tolbert(.293/.353/.427;67 RC in 477 PA; All #s AAA)(N/A UZR)
ZiPs( .255/.306/.363;49 RC in 478 PA)
Nick Punto(See 3rd Base)

Brendan Harris is a player I like.  Given up on by three different organizations while doing nothing but hitting in the minors, the Devil Rays gave him a shot at SS last year.  Though horrendous defensively, he put up an excellent 106 OPS+, and was just generally an excellent offensive player for a middle infielder.  Shifting back to his natural position at second base, he’s likely to put up a better line defensively, maybe even average to just below while putting up a similar line offensively.  Nice find by Bill Smith, and a good sign going forward if he can continue to get throw-ins of this nature.  ZiPs is dead on here, which makes him a quality player if his defense improves to average or just below.

Matt Tolbert is a fun player.  He’s scrappy, he makes contact, he gets on base, and he plays good defense at 2nd, SS, and 3rd.  He’s also redundant, as all those adjectives except fun apply to fellow back up infielder Little Nicky Punto.  I’d still rather have Tolbert than Punto.  If he gets 478 ABs, Gardenhire should be beaten with a hose, or perhaps Little Nicky’s bat, they’re of roughly the same consistency. (79 RC)

Shortstop:
Adam Everett(.232/.281/.318;56 OPS+;20 RC in 236 PA)(+33 UZR)
ZiPs( .235/.284/.330;45 RC in 509 PA)
Nick Punto(See 3rd Base)
Matt Tolbert(See 2nd Base)

Adam Everett, Ozzie’s brother from another mother?  Everett can’t hit a lick, and will never hit a lick.  However, he’s worth three wins more than the average defender with his glove, so it really doesn’t matter.  Everett is the premier defensive player in baseball right now, and very few people seem to realize it.  That’s a true shame, because as awful as it is to watch him swing a bat, it’s just as much of a joy to watch him field a ground ball.  However, its hard for me to see a reason for him to play on the Twins, as Everett is what he is, and is unlikely to fetch much in trade, certainly not as much as he’s worth.  The Twins would have been better off giving the SS position to Casilla to see if he could handle the position.  That’s not Everett’s fault, and he’s still a really good player and likely to help this young, defense dependant pitching staff.  He just got no future here.  His ZiPs line looks right, but in more like 550 PA. (45 RC)

3rd Base:
Mike Lamb(.289/ .366/.453;112 OPS+;53 RC in 353 PA)(0 UZR)
ZiPs( .263/.329/.410;44 RC in 367 PA)
Nick Punto(.210/.291/.271;52 OPS+;41 RC in 536 PA)(+13 UZR)
ZiPs( .235/.311/.306;46 RC in 516 PA)

Mike Lamb’s a professional hitter.  He does nothing exceptionally well, but does everything OK.  He hits for a decent average, he gets on base at a decent clip, and he’s got a decent amount of pop in his bat.  He doesn’t hurt you defensively at any of the four corners, but doesn’t help you much either.  He hits righties better than lefties, but lefties don’t neuter him either.  Unlike Everett, who’s blocking Casilla, I like the Lamb signing.  That probably says more about the farm system than Lamb, but someone’s got to play 3rd base, and Lamb’s as good a choice as any, and doesn’t cost much.  If a better option does appear, Lamb’s an experienced bench player, and doesn’t complain about playing time.  Nice signing by the Twins.  I actually think he’ll better that ZiPs line, and put up one closer to last years performance, just in more playing time.

Nick Punto got 536 PA last year at 3rd base.  His offensive performance would be poor for a backup catcher.  He’s good defensively, but not that good.  Shunted back into a bench role, he’s better suited to be a late inning defensive specialist.  So why is it that I feel Little Nicky’s going to play everyday, bouncing around 2nd, SS, and 3rd, while picking up 400 PA.  Oh, that’s right Gardenhire’s the manager, silly me.  Little Nicky will hit better this year, but there isn’t a hairsbreadth of difference between him and any other long suffering minor league player.  You might note that Lamb’s RC line is 12 runs higher than Punto’s in 183 less PAs.  Lamb could be horrendous at 3rd base and still be better than Little Nicky. (121 RC)

Left Field:
Delmon Young(.288/.316/.408;91 OPS+;77 RC in 681 PA)(-2 UZR)
ZiPs( .294/.324/.421;79 RC in 618 PA)
Craig Monroe(See DH)
Jason Kubel(See DH)

Delmon Young was this years big off season acquisition.  Traded for Matt Garza, he’s an impact position player prospect that the Twins have lacked since Mauer came up, and the highest upside player they have in the whole system.  As an offensive player, he’s currently very similar to the man in RF, Michael Cuddyer, and quite possibly just as good right now.  In terms of upside, he’s probably less Frank Robinson and more Torii Hunter.  Which means despite his high upside, he’s probably going to have an All Star kind of peak (Hunter’s bat would play in the corner at his best), but be very good most of the time.  He could turn into Torii hunter with a bit more average and a bit more power and less defense by the second half of this year.  I’m going to go with ZiPs, but he really could hit .320 this year with 30 homers and not shock me.  The Young-Garza trade is a perfect example of what the Twins need to do to get ahead, trading their depth for weaknesses, and a point in Bill Smith’s favor.  (79 RC)

Centerfield:
Carlos Gomez( .232/.288/.304;56 OPS+;13 RC in 139 PA)(N/A UZR)
ZiPs( .241/.299/.346;34 RC in 352 PA)
Denard Span( .267/.323/.355;55 RC in 548 PA; All #s AAA)(N/A UZR)
ZiPs( .257/.305/.326;52 RC in 570 PA)
Craig Monroe(See DH)

Carlos Gomez has more tools than Home Depot and less idea of what to do with them than a millionaire’s heiress.  He runs fast, but doesn’t have good instincts in the field or on the bases.  His average in the minor’s was decent, but he struck out way to often.  He’s has a projectable build, but if he puts on weight for power, his wheels just might get stuck in the mud.  Scouts like to talk about his upside, and if you squint, you might see a bit of Hal McRae, but he’s more likely Brian (and quite possibly Brian Hunter).  Right now, though, he’s got more in common with Skip Schumaker than either McRae, and he could use some seasoning in AAA.  However, based on Little Nicky’s playing time last year, and Gardenhire’s love of speed, he’ll probably get 700 PAs and lead the league in outs.  As the Twins aren’t going anywhere this year, that’s not as bad as it could be.  Still, ZiP’s looks about right this year, though he might hit an empty .280, and I really think he’s going to get at least 600 PA (I do hope I’m wrong, though).

Denard Span is Carlos Gomez’s worst nightmare.  Once a top prospect and a top pick in the draft, Span is a speedy slap hitter with a good glove in center.  He never had Gomez’s projectable power, but Gomez likely doesn’t either.  Perhaps Span lurking on the bench like a vision from the ghost of Christmas future will terrify Gomez into being a better player.  Also, if Span gets 500 PA Gardenhire needs to…forget it.  Think more like 150 ABs or so, but this is a team that used Jason Tyner as a DH, so who knows.  (81 RC)

Right Field:
Michael Cuddyer( .276/.356/.433;112 OPS+;85 RC in 623 PA)(-9 UZR)
ZiPs( .269/.352/.427;70 RC in 496 PA)
Denard Span(See CF)
Craig Monroe(See DH)

It seems a long time ago since Michael Cuddyer was a slugging 3rd base prospect.  It’s a pity that Gardenhire hated his defense, as the Twins have gotten jack out of 3rd since Corey Koskie left (remember Tony Batista?).  As is, he’s a league average corner outfielder in every way, shape, and form, and the best right handed bat on the team.  A recent beneficiary of the Twins puzzling largess, he’ll be around until at least 2010, and at 29, he’ll likely be what he is until the end. Still, it seems like the money given to Cuddyer and Nathan would have been better spent toward a certain left handed pitcher that they got squat for, but what do I know.  I’m probably wrong anyway.  Sure would be nice if he played 3rd Base.  ZiPs is probably dead on, and that line is what they’ll be getting for the next three years, so it’s not like its money wasted.  (70 RC)

Designated Hitter:
Craig Monroe(. 219/.268/.370;65 OPS+;35 RC in 427 PA)
ZiPs( .236/.286/.402;48 RC in 465 PA)
Jason Kubel( .273/.335/.450;109 OPS+;64 RC in 466 PA)
ZiPs( .268/.332/.436;65 RC in 491 PA)

Craig Monroe was a large benefit to the Twins last year, but, unfortunately, they chose to trade for him.  He’s an inferior right-handed option to several free talent players who’ve floated around this year, such as former Twin Shannon Stewart and current Cub Reed Johnson, but he does play plus defense.  Monroe is a very good example of the Twins chronic lack of trust for their internally developed players.  Unfortunately, it looks like the Twins see him as the answer to the DH question.

Jason Kubel is the Twins third best hitter.  He’s patient at the plate, and has a bit of pop.  As a result he’s constantly struggling to get playing team for an organization that values aggressiveness out of its hitters.  The fact that he’s got bad knees doesn’t help much.  If Monroe takes any PA from Kubel against right-handers, it’ll be a travesty.  Hopefully, Gardenhire will solve the Rubix Kubel before Monroe costs them too many runs.  Unfortunately, I think ZiPs has Monroe pegged right on playing time, as he’ll will get way too many ABs against righties because of his aggressive approach, veteran goodness, and defensive prowess. (103 RC)(756 RC adjusted to 6100 PA)

Farm System:
Alexi Casilla(.222/.256/.259;39 OPS+;13 RC in 204 RC)
ZiPs(.260/.311/.319;52 RC in 564 PA)
Jason Pridie(.318/.375/.539;52 RC in 274 PA;All #s AAA)
ZiPs(.253/.303/.379;55 RC in 530 PA)
Matt Macri(.298/.349/.502;47 RC in 298 PA;All #s AA)
ZiPs(.231/.302/.359;35 RC in 353 PA)
Brian Buscher(.244/.323/.329;76 OPS+;9 RC in 94 PA)
ZiPs(.251/.309/.361;51 RC in 503 PA)
Ben Revere(DNP)

Alexi Casilla is the infield prospect they stole from the Angels for JC Romero.  Having said that, his upside is Luis Castillo, and there aren’t many Luis Castillo’s running around the game.  More likely, he’s a better defensive version of Nick Punto, who has his uses.  There’s not a whole lot that separates Jason Pridie and Juan Pierre other than service time.  He’s better than Gomez right now, and there’s more than a 50-50 chance he’s better than Gomez in the future.  He could hit .280 in the show, despite that ZiPs.  He’ll get some playing time, but Gomez’s promise will keep the door nailed shut.  Matt Macri could give the Twins a right-handed version of Mike Lamb in the future, and would be one of the few offense oriented bench players they’ve had.  He’ll get some playing time in the second half.  Brian Buscher had a nice year at AAA Rochester last year, but its out of line from the rest of his career, not that good really, and he can’t play d.  Ben Revere is the prospect drafted out of Lexington Catholic high school last year.  Having seen him play, he’s a good contact hitter and really, really fast.  He’s a bit more patient at the plate than Carlos Gomez, and probably more likely to reach his potential.  On the other hand, his high-end potential is probably Darryl Hamilton, FWIW.

Pitching:
Starting Rotation:
Livan Hernandez(4.93 ERA;204 IP;79/90 BB/K;95 ERA+)
ZiPs(5.55 ERA;193 IP;75/103 BB/K;131 RA)
Scott Baker(4.26 ERA;144 IP;29/102 BB/K;102 ERA+)
ZiPs(4.50 ERA;186 IP;39/127 BB/K;102 RA)
Boof Bonser(5.10 ERA;173 IP;65/136 BB/K;92 ERA+)
ZiPs(4.98 ERA;179 IP;63/142 BB/K;108 RA)
Nick Blackburn(2.11 ERA;110 IP;12/57 BB/K;All #s AAA)
ZiPs(4.86 ERA;150 IP;32/63 BB/K;89 RA)
Kevin Slowey(4.73 ERA;67 IP;11/47 BB/K;92 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.93 ERA;181 IP;23/113 BB/K;86 RA)
Francisco Liriano(DNP)
ZiPs(3.42 ERA;166 IP;46/178 BB/K;69 RA)

“And Jesus, he wants to go to Venus, leaving Livan far behind.  Take a balloon and go sailing, while Livan, Livan slowly dies.” —Elton John.  Another good example of this organizations greatest failure, Livan is a below average innings eater.  The Twins have about six pitchers likely to be better than Livan, and all of them have more upside.  He’s the latest example of Ramon Ortiz and Sydney Ponson, except that they’re paying him $5 million dollars and they won’t just cut him loose.  Even if he posts a 95 ERA+, it’ll likely be a bad thing for the organization.  It’s a lose-lose situation, especially since Livan is unlikely to bring anything in trade.

Scott Baker is the team’s putative ace.  Fans turned on him in 2006 while he was doing his best impression of a piñata.  As a result he got jerked around, and the team had little faith in him during the first part of 2007.  However, Baker settled in and became the team’s second best pitcher, fulfilling on the promise that once put him in the fifth starter’s spot in place of Francisco Liriano the previous year.  He’s really a third starter, but he’s a good one and the jerking around helped keep his work load down.  That ZiPs projection looks right, and he could knock half a run off it this year.

Boof Bonser had a rough time last year, but was still an acceptable bottom of the rotation starter.  He’ll likely be better this year, and I expect him to at least hit Baker’s projection, but he could shave off a whole run if he’s in shape.  Besides, how can you not root for a guy named Boof, right Floyd?  Maybe they brought Livan in to make Bonser feel better about his weight.

Nick Blackburn dominated AAA last year.  He’s a pitching prospect the way the Twins like them:  they might not strike anyone out, but they sure as hell aren’t putting anyone on base either.  He’s probably a fourth starter
max, and he’s likely to be pushed out of the rotation by Liriano when Liriano’s ready.  With the Twins defense behind him, that projection looks right, but I’ll be surprised if he gets 150 IP, probably more like 100, and even that might be split between him and Glenn Perkins.

Kevin Slowey is the Twins top pitching prospect with Matt Garza gone.  He doesn’t have ace potential, but could very easily become a third starter.  Right now he’s slated to be sent down instead of Nick Blackburn, but I expect him to outpitch his rival.  Slowey’s going to good and it could be as soon as this year, but it’ll be in 150 innings or so, not 180.

Francisco Liriano will join the big club at some point, but he’s a huge question mark right now.  His surgery is routine these days, but not everyone comes back the same.  I actually expect Liriano to stay in the minors for at least a month refining his mechanics and working on command.  I don’t expect him to hit that ZiPs this year, but next year, look out.  Instead, he’ll probably get somewhere around 120 innings or so at an ERA somewhere between 4.00 and 4.50. (513 RA, 930 IP)

Bullpen:
Juan Rincon(5.13 ERA;60 IP;28/49 BB/K;85 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.68 ERA;71 IP;26/66 BB/K;31 RA)
Dennys Reyes(3.99 ERA;29 IP;21/21 BB/K;109 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.45 ERA;47 IP;21/37 BB/K;19 RA)
Jesse Crain(5.51 ERA;16 IP;4/10 BB/K;79 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.80 ERA;71 IP;22/44 BB/K;33 RA)
Matt Guerrier(2.35 ERA;88 IP;21/68 BB/K;184 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.49 ERA;80 IP:24/55 BB/K;34 RA)
Brian Bass(3.48 ERA;103 IP;24/80 BB/K;All #s AAA)
ZiPs(5.28 ERA;121 IP;30/65 IP;78 RA)

Juan Rincon was once the closer in waiting.  Now he’s a bad to average middle reliever making $2.475 million.  Since he’s about the 10th best option on the team for middle relief, the Twins should have traded him, or failing that, non-tendered him.  He’s just eating money.  Maybe he bounces back to that ZiPs, but his declining K-rate makes me doubt it.(30 RA, 50 IP)

Dennys Reyes appeared in 50 games last year, and pitched 29 innings.  He gets $1 million a year for the privilege, and while he’s good at his job, is he really better than Ricky Barrett, Carmen Cali, or Glen Perkins?  While he might be, it’s unlikely he’s $600,000 better, due to his highly limited role.  Reyes could be and should be trade bait for a contender looking for an effective lefty reliever. (17RA, 40 IP)

It’s not been a wonderful life for Jesse Crain.  Once the Twins elite relief prospect and heir apparent to Joe Nathan, he’s now a just another relief arm in a deep Twins bullpen.  On the other hand, he’d be a setup guy for a lot of other teams, and might even bring a B prospect. (33 RA, 70 IP)

Matt Guerrier was a nice free talent find of Terry Ryan’s, and just another example of why you shouldn’t pay top dollar for a reliever.  Guerrier’s a nice long man, and is rarely used in high leverage situations.  Here’s another guy that might bring a B prospect.(34 RA, 80 IP)

Brian Bass is a rookie reliever that was used as a swing man at AAA, where he was pretty good.  Now a full time reliever, he’s likely just another pitcher in a long line of effective bullpen pitchers.  The Twins apparently found a Genie at some point, and gave the Twins a choice, you can have unlimited relief pitchers or a few great position player prospects.  The Twins chose the former.  How the heck did former assistant GM Wayne Krivsky learn nothing about building a bullpen? (25 RA, 50 IP)

Glen Perkins will get some time in the pen as well, acting as a lefty swing man and generally being more effective than Rincon and Hernandez, depending on the role, without replacing either of them.  I expect him and other farm help to get 90 innings and post an ERA between 4.0- and 4.50, proving that instead of bring up minor league dreck like most teams, the Twins prefer it to start on the roster. (189 RA, 380 IP)

Setup:
Pat Neshek(2.94 ERA;70 IP;27/74 BB/K;147 ERA+)
ZiPs(3.62 ERA;82 IP;26/93 BB/K;36 RA)

Pat Neshek is the world’s best blogging reliever and a fun player to watch as well.  He’s a side-armer and more effective against righties than lefties.  Combined with Reyes, Cali, or Perkins, he could form, Voltron like, one of the best set-up men in the game.  He’s rubber armed to, and can easily pitch back to back games.  He’s also a perfect example as to why they should have let Nathan walk.  He’s not as dominant, but there’s still less than a wins difference between the two.  (30 RA, 80 IP)

Closer:
Joe Nathan(1.88 ERA;72 IP;19/77 BB/K;230 ERA+)
ZiPs(2.19 ERA;70 IP;20/82 BB/K;18 RA)

Joe Nathan is the best closer in the game.  Relative to his peers, his new contract severely under pays him.  The front office feels that losing both Santana and Nathan would be a public relations nightmare, and they’re probably right.  Having said that, I still don’t like the Nathan signing, especially when combined with the Cuddyer signing.  Though the arguments already lost, that money should have been spent toward Santana, and Nathan and Cuddyer both would likely have pulled in major league ready now replacements.  I’ll put it this way, for Twenty million a year for the next four seasons, you can have Nathan/Cuddyer (which is the equivalent of what they got, two three year contracts with team options) or Santana.  Yes I know the Twins didn’t want to commit that much money over that period of time.  I still think it likely Santana not only has more value than Cuddyer/Nathan combined, but will have more value of the next eight season than any pitcher the Twins develop in that period, and likely more value than any other player to whom they might give that money.  Only Liriano holds a chance of it, and the truth is, every young pitcher the Twins develop in that period will have a better chance of injury than Santana.  That ship’s sold, so Nathan will continue to be the one of the best closers in the game for the length of the contract.  (18 RA/;70 IP)(750 RA,1460 IP)

Farm System:
Glen Perkins(3.14 ERA;29 IP;12/20 BB/K;132 ERA+)
ZiPs(5.42 ERA;103 IP;47/76 BB/K;68 RA)
Phillip Humber(4.27 ERA;139 IP;41/120 BB/K; AAA)
ZiPs(5.61 ERA;122 IP;34/71 BB/K;83 RA)
Kevin Mulvey(3.32 ERA;151 IP;43/113 BB/K; AA)
ZiPs(4.47 ERA;137 IP;36/61 BB/K;74 RA)
Brian Duensing(3.24 ERA;116 IP;30/86 BB/K; AAA)
ZiPs(5.23 ERA;167 IP;41/83 BB/K;106 RA)
Carmen Cali(4.71 ERA;21 IP;16/14 BB/K;92 ERA+)
ZiPs(5.38 ERA;72 IP;33/41 BB/K;47 RA)
Ricky Barrett(4.11 ERA;30 IP;14/34 BB/K; AAA)
ZiPs(5.82 ERA;65 IP;45/55 BB/K;46 RA)
Julio DePaula(2.90 ERA;83 IP;27/63 BB/K;AAA)
ZiPs(5.44 ERA;96 IP;37/47 BB/K;63 RA)

Glen Perkins will again begin in the minors as the first lefty called up.  He’s a starter who could be either a good bottom of the rotation arm or an excellent reliever.  He’ll get his time.  Phillip Humber is part of the Santana haul, and the downside possibility for Liriano, as he’s a Tommy John survivor who went from ace to #4 prospect in ten seconds.  He’s still better than Livan, and probably better than Blackburn over the long haul.  Kevin Mulvey’s another piece of Santana, but he might actually have middle of the rotation upside.  If you squint hard enough, you’ll get a headache.  Brian Duensing is another minor league starter who’s better than Livan, but still a bottom of the rotation arm.  Somehow, he’ll become an ace reliever, I can just feel it.  Carmen Cali is a LOOGY and so is Ricky Barret.  Julio DePaula used to be a Yankee’s prospect.  Now he’s just a guy who shuttles between Rochester and Minneapolis every now and then.  He might not be better than Livan, but then again, he might.

Manager:
Ron Gardenhire(537-442 .549 Win%, 83-79 .514 Win%)

Ron Gardenhire is simultaneously one of the best managers in the game and one of the worst.  He’s got a .549 winning percentage, though that’s abut to start dropping.  He’s tactically brilliant when using his pen, getting the most out of his reliever.  In the pen, he shows no favorites, marginalizing ineffective pitchers, letting relievers go more than one inning, and using swing men appropriately.  In the rotation, he’s shown very little favoritism as well, willing to go with youngsters over veterans brought in, and showing skill at determining when a youngster not ready.  On the pitching and defense side of things, he’s as good as anyone.

Offensively, he sucks.  He might be the worse manager in the game.  It’s not his batting orders, though those aren’t great either.  You see, Gardenhire seems to set his lineup year round based on position.  If Mauer’s batting 4th, then when Redmond takes his place, he’ll be batting fourth.  His biggest failing is that he cannot be trusted to play the right player when given the opportunity.  Whether it’s playing Little Nicky at 3rd base (though his options were thin), playing Juan Castro over Jason Bartlett, or refusing to DH Mauer, but happily DHing Mike Redmon, he’s a hazard on offense.  The GM needs a firm hand with Gardenhire on offense, and it remains to be seen if Bill Smith has that hand.

The Twins made a couple of major mistakes this off-season.  One is that they underestimated their chances at contention.  They likely have a winning team here, and if they make some appropriate choices (dropping Livan, benching Monroe), they’ll be on the fringes of contention.  If any ONE of their highly touted youngsters (Gomez, Young, Casilla) breaks out, they’ll do the same.  If they had kept Santana, they’d likely have been in contention as well, not being particularly weaker than the good but flawed Indians and Tigers teams ahead of them.  Add in the fact that for what they’re paying Nathan and Young for the next four years they’d been half way to Santana (not even mentioning the money they’re throwing away on Rincon, Hernandez, Punto, and Monroe), it seems the Twins have misread they’re place in the success cycle.  When your team’s key players are in their primes, and you have no intention of dealing away all of them, you should go for it.  For Cuddyer and/or Nathan, it seems likely the Twins could have picked up an impact bat, and Jason Pridie likely would have been adequate in center while they waited for Ben Revere, especially since they were closer to offensive adequacy than they first appeared.  This would have been a great year to take on salary and go for it, maybe seeing if they could pick up a guy like Adam Dunn for one year, but instead the Twins are stuck in between rebuilding and contending.

The problem becomes three fold.  To contend with Santana, they only needed one of three things to go right to become divisional favorites, and that’s for Young to step up at the plate, or Casilla to step up at the plate, or Revere to blast through the minors.  Now, they have to have all three of those players step up, along with Gomez (which I find unlikely), they have to have one of the myriad of non-Liriano pitching prospects step up to at least middle of the rotation level, they need Liriano himself to step up, and they need Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan to not decline all in the next three years to contend.  Since they only guy I think is a sure fire prospect is Young, I don’t like their chances.  This looks like a team with an 85 win upside for the next several years, which gives them neither contention or high draft picks.  When you’re best bet is for a different team to falter than for your team to succeed, that bodes ill for the future.