Looking Forward to 2007 - Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels

In 2006: An offense that couldn’t find its legs for the entire first half of the season stoned what would have been the Angels’ third straight division title. Injuries to key contributors (Bartolo Colon, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman) coupled with the perfect health of some non-contributors (Jeff Weaver, Esteban Yan, J.C. Romero, Kevin Gregg) were a big problem, and forced the Angels to go headlong into a youth movement which included three rookies in the everyday lineup and two in the starting rotation.

That said, team won 89 games and finished just four out of the division lead. Let’s look at the particulars.

In 2006: The offense putt-putted to a .728 OPS and the second fewest runs in the AL before the All-Star break last year, and Angels would have fallen clean out of the race early but for a stellar effort by the starting rotation. The feat is particularly impressive since the team had to go without rotation anchor Bartolo Colon, but did have to go with rotation albatross Jeff Weaver (3-10, 6.29 ERA in 88.6 innings) until he was finally loosened upon St. Louis. The remaining young group of starters turned in the third best starter ERA in the league. Oakland GM Billy Beane called them flat-out the best rotation in baseball.

In 2007: Little injuries everywhere dotted the rotation, and some of those injuries might not be so little. Still, IF they hold up, the returning five – and perhaps six – can be as good as any rotation in either league. It’s a big IF (big enough to capitalize and italicize) – two starters are just 24 years old, a third just 26 – and the dings in spring training might be a harbinger of worse. I’m just sayin’.

John Lackey followed up his break-out 2005 with another strong effort, 3.56 ERA and was third in the league with 190 strikeouts. He’s gotten very good at keeping his fastball down, and his change-up has improved dramatically over the last few seasons. A top-10 pitcher in the AL, and if he shaves off a few more walks, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Signed to an extension until 2009, he’s an absolute steal at $5.5 million this season.

I heart Jared Weaver and Ervin Santana, and you should, too – at 24, they’re the best young pitching duo in the game. Weaver throws two different fastballs, curve, change, slider, and he can throw them all for strikes. If he’s healthy, he’s going to be very good – if, if, if. Weaver’s first start of the season was pushed back as he battled what the Angels are calling biceps tendonitis. Between AAA and the majors last year, he threw 200 innings, more than 50 innings more than he’s ever thrown in a season. Santana needs a change-up to go with a hard fastball, a nasty slider, and great composure, but wore down badly in July and August. Also, both have pronounced platoon splits. Weaver especially has a huge split R/L .481/.793 OPSs. They’re both flyball pitchers (Weaver’s an extreme one), and they’re both going to have to work on keeping the ball down to lefties.

Kelvim Escobar is one of the better 6-inning starters in the league. He throws hard from Pitch #1 on, keeps the ball down, and strikes guys out. He’s also had off-season surgery on his right elbow, tendonitis in his left (plant) knee, and he strained his back in spring training. The Angels probably won’t get 200 innings from Escobar, but the innings he does give them will be solid, and if he’s around for 25-28 starts, they’ll take it.

Last year, Joe Saunders dominated AAA Salt Lake, then came up after Jeff Weaver was dealt, and promptly won his first four starts, and finished the season with nine Quality Starts in 13 attempts. He’s got a decent fastball, but he can’t throw his breaking stuff for strikes, he’s throwing batting practice, and you can tell real early which Saunders showed for work. A fine #5 in the rotation, with some upside.

At this point, Bartolo Colon is just a big fat question mark. Between his back issues, his left knee issues, and, oh yeah, the rotator cuff tear that ended his 2006, there’s just no telling if Colon’s going to be able to come back effectively. If he can, he’d obviously be a nice addition, and the Angels insist he looks very strong throwing on the side. We’ll see.

Bullpen

In 2006: Shut-down bullpens have been a trademark of the Mike Scioscia era in Anaheim, but despite having a tremendous back end, the Angel bullpen 3.78 was the worst the team’s had since 2001. The main culprits for that relative failure, Esteban Yan, Kevin Gregg, and J.C. Romero, are all gone.

In 2007: Between Scott Shields (88.3 IP, 2.88 ERA) and Frankie Rodriguez, who posted a 0.51 ERA after the break, the Angels won’t give up an 8^th inning lead. The new guys, Justin Speier and Darren Oliver, should offer a marked improvement in getting through the 6^th and 7 ^th. Between Escobar and the youth of Weaver and Santana, the bullpen should see plenty of regular work.

Speier, in particular, allows the Angels to turn 6^th inning leads into 9^th inning save opportunities. He’s been a strong setup man the last two seasons in Toronto, and between his funky delivery and nasty forkball, he’s one of those reverse platoon guys – lefties hit just .174 off Speier over the last two seasons. Having Speier will really help extend Shields, who at one point was throwing multi-inning outings nearly every other day.

Hector Carrasco is back as the long man. After a terrible April, he turned things around and ended up tossing 100.3 innings with a strong 3.41 ERA. The Angels gave him three starts last year, but are going to give the spot starts to Dustin Moseley until Weaver is ready to pitch.

Oliver will take over as the LOOGY after a solid season with the Mets. Given how bad Romero was last season, it’s impossible for him to be worse.

The Line-Up

Catcher

In 2006: The Angels inexplicably didn't offer Bengie Molina arbitration; keeping Molina the Elder around for one more year would have given Jeff Mathis a chance to get more experience under his belt at AAA, as his uninspiring 276/340/499 there in 2005 was a hint that he wasn't quite ready to produce in The Show.  And, to the surprise of no one who was actually paying attention, Mathis did struggle, hitting a punchless .108 for a month and earning his return ticket to the PCL.

Mike Napoli, who wasn't hitting all that well at AAA himself, got the call in the "it can't get worse from here" department, and decided to up the ante and homer in his first at-bat.  The Pride of Naples was the bee's knees through most of June, hitting above .300 with beaucoup walks and prodigious power.

But Napoli's weakness was the K and, just as it did at AA in 2005, his bat took the late summer off.  The Neapolitan hit 180/311/366 over his last 63 games.  Defensive specialist and backup Jose Molina was able to pick up some of that slack, hitting 259/280/429 over that period, quite robust by his standards.

In 2007: Mathis came into the spring with a shot to win some playing time back, but Napoli's grip on the job has led to another journey to the PCL for Jeff.  Napoli's secondary skills (he posted a secondary average of .418 last season [even managing a .378 in the summer swoon] and had a career .406 in the minors) mean he can contribute as long as he hits .220, a huge advantage that Mathis lacks.  The only question is:  can Napoli hit .220?  Were the last three months of 2006 a mere slump/regression, or did the league figure him out and .180 is his real level of ability?  As with most extremes, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and .220 should be right in his wheelhouse.

Of course, a Mike Scioscia team demands defense from his catcher first, but Napoli also has the edge on Mathis in that regard, at least so far in their young major league careers.  Mathis threw out a measly 14% of opposing basestealers in his limited time last season, where Napoli threw out a perfectly adequate 30% (Molina, the leather of the operation, hosed 41%).  And while it may not mean anything, Angel pitchers had a much better ERA throwing to Napoli, as well (3.76 to 5.82), though his may be partially affected by Napoli not overlapping as much with Jeff Weaver.

First Base

In 2006: Instead of building off a highly productive 2005 stretch drive, Casey Kotchman was stricken with a horrible case of mononucleosis, which left him a pathetic shell of a man at the plate for a month before the team finally figured they should shut him down.  Kendry Morales got a chance; it took him two months to get in the swing of things at both AA and AAA, after which he would catch fire, but his two-month orientation in Los Angeles of Anaheim simply led to a demotion.  Howie Kendrick got a shot, and the Angels even tried to track down Jim Spencer and Daryl Sconiers ... eventually the position was essentially filled by a Robb Quinlan/Adam Kennedy platoon, with Kendrick taking over the bag when Kennedy was in the lineup at second.

In 2007: Casey Kotchman looks healthy, and if so, it's still his job to lose.  Remember, he's still only 24 years old, and top-hitting smooth-fielding first base prospects have bounced back from early-career maladies before (just see The Stick, Nick).  Sure, he runs like a long-lost Molina brother, but he's got a great eye at the plate, a pretty swing (though the top-hand dominance reminds me uneasily of Darin Erstad, Lord and Master of Groundouts to Second), and enough bulk where he is a decent bet to add some power as he matures.

If Kotch falters or falls to injury, Morales is a good bet to outperform his 2006 contribution.  He has little patience at the plate, but has enough line drives and power in his bat to perform a solid imitation of a Brad Fullmer sans platoon split.  He won't necessarily do that this year, but he still has some development in him and could blast his way into the DH picture.  His defense was also a pleasant surprise, as he was agile around the bag with a strong arm suitable for the opposite corner.

Robb Quinlan is injury insurance and the enforcer against left-handers, and a bargain.

Second Base

In 2006: Adam Kennedy, in the last year of his contract, suffered his worst season since 2001, eventually being relegated to a platoon role with Robb Quinlan while Kendrick made the argument that the next MVP in Angel red will be wearing #47.

In 2006: All Howie, all the time. Some might frown at his 2006 debut, but after a rough cup of coffee in a reserve role, he hit 347/377/520 for six weeks upon his return.  He did slump in September (231/242/330), but each plate appearance he had that month set a new career high for him; fatigue was setting in.

His lack of walks are a problem -- and something of a result of his great plate coverage and just squaring up the ball too well when he hits it -- but a 300/320/420 line is his floor, which is fine for a 23-year-old who can play a good second base.  He could easily provide more power than that, especially in the gaps, and is a solid bet to have a slugging percentage above .450.  Defensively, he's a good athlete, and if Alfredo Griffin could mentor Adam Kennedy into a Gold Glove-worthy defender, he should have no problem overseeing at least solid play from Howie.

Third Base

In 2006: The annual Dallas McPherson injury led Legs Figgins to the hot corner until the annual Darin Erstad injury re-installed him in center.  Maicer Izturis was able to step up and provide goodish offense and queasy defense.

In 2007: The Gary Matthews, Jr. signing frees The Legs to make the corner his home.  Chone's offense dropped off a bit last year, but the drop is completely attributable to the singles not dropping in; his Isolated Power was right in line with his career marks, and his "Isolated On Base" was actually around 10 points better.  There should be some reversion there, and Figgins is a good bet to be a slightly above-average offensive contributor once his excellent baserunning is factored in.  Whether "slightly above-average" is going to be enough from a third baseman on a team with designs for the postseason is another matter.

Ztu and Robb Quinlan (and even DH Shea Hillenbrand) provide backup at the position, and it's not impossible to imagine a scenario that sees prospect Brandon Wood forcing his way into some time. 

Figgins will be injured for the first month of the season; Ztu provides a similar bat, but is not as disruptive on the basepaths or as consistent with the glove as Chone Figgins, but unless Izturis slumps he should be able to hold down the position long enough to keep the Angels from getting buried.

Shortstop

In 2006: Orlando Cabrera had one of his better offensive years, though took some steps backward on defense.

In 2007: Expect more of the same from Lando Cabrissian, who is likely to step back a bit with the bat and up a bit with the glove.  He remains an outstanding baserunner and a magnetic personality.  He's miscast as a #2 hitter, and probably won't be worth his salary, but he's not an albatross.

Ztu is the standard backup here, too, but his being thrusted into the starting lineup means prospect Erick Aybar falls on the utility job and might earn himself a call were The OC to fall to long-term injury after Figgins' return.  Aybar has a flashy glove and good wheels, but his bat isn't ready for the big leagues quite yet, so it seems a shame he won't have some time to master AAA.

Left Field

In 2006: Garret Anderson was old, banged-about, and spent considerable time at DH.  This allowed Juan Rivera to play the field.

Rivera had a terrific season, putting it together with the bat while fielding circles around Garret Anderson in left.  His range isn't spectacular (he isn't very fast, as his double play totals attest), but he has, on balance, the best arm on the team:  it's nearly as strong as Vlad's, far more accurate, and his fundamentals on the catch-and-release of the ball are flawless.  Rivera had 13 assists between the three outfield positions, which led the team, and he was easily the best defensive alternative on the corners.  This allowed Scioscia to keep Garret Anderson and Vlad in the lineup at DH while giving their ailing legs a rest from defensive exertion, a flexibility that kept everyone as healthy and productive as possible.

In 2007: Garret Anderson will be older.

Centerfield

In 2007: Darin Erstad got hurt, and Chone Figgins took over.

In 2007: Gary Matthews, Jr. has been signed to a controversial five-year deal and has been handed the center field job.  2006 marked the first time Matthews was substantially above-average with a bat in his hand, and reviews are mixed on his highlight-reel defense (zone rating:  nay, ultimate zone rating:  yay).  Even if Matthews reverts to his pre-2006 form (and remember the allegations of his HGH purchase date to 2004, before the substance was banned by major league baseball and before Lil' Sarge ever showed he could put up an OPS+ above 110), he should be a competent player, and won't do anything to bring down the Angels in the short term.  Of course, the HGH investigation could prove a circus and a distraction, and Matthews could be out of baseball in five years, but that's neither here nor there.

Backing up Matthews, or taking over if the drug investigation ruins everything, is (most likely) Reggie Willits.  Think:  David Eckstein, Centerfielder.  Willits is a speedy little switch-hitter with no power at all, but the ability to draw a walk and turn it into a double.  His lack of power may mean that his walks will go down at the highest level, but at worst he should have a nice little Rick Becker/John Cangelosi career ahead of him.  Erick Aybar has also been learning center from time to time, but he's behind Willits and Tommy Murphy on that depth chart.

Right Field

In 2006: Vlad!

In 2007: Vlad!

The best show on Earth showed little signs of slowing down last year.  Sure, his 144 was the lowest OPS+ he's put up as an Angel, but that's still getting the job done.  The only question is his health; Vladi fought knee problems last year, which Mike Scioscia says led to poor defense as he had trouble tracking flies on the run.  Verily, 7 of his 11 errors were fielding errors (as opposed to throwing errors), so a bit more health could help in this regard.  Unfortunately, Juan Rivera's injury leaves little relief on the roster for the embattled corner outfielders.  Vlad's backup is Tommy "Smiles" Murphy, who can't hit at all (and especially not against right-handers), but has good legs and a terrific arm at each outfield slot (including center).

Designated Hitter

In 2006: Mike Scioscia has rarely had a regular DH (Brad Fullmer on the championship 2002 team was the exception, and even he was platooned), preferring to use the position more as a waystation for giving his players semi-rest.  A productive and part-time Tim Salmon actually got the most time there last year, followed by Garret Anderson, who was working through injuries. 

In 2007: The DH "slot" belonged to Juan Rivera (with him due to spot others in the field while they DH, as mentioned above), but his broken leg led the Angels to sign Shea Hillenbrand as a band-aid.  Hillenbrand is a poor offensive substitute for Rivera's 2006 production, and on the defensive end will provide no support for Anderson or Guerrero, as his "skills" are limited to first base and an alleged third base.  This could have an uncool ripple effect on the core of the lineup. 

Though the Angels' panic in the wake of Rivera's injury is relatable, it's hard to say that his acquisition was necessary.  Maicer Izturis has a higher career OPS+ against right-handers than Hillenbrand does, and Robb Quinlan has been better against left-handers.  There's some relatively small sample size there, so I'm not saying it's definite that Ztu is better against northpaws than Hilly is, but his skillset is a bit redundant in light of the rest of the Angel personnel.

MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATION

The Bill Stoneman/Mike Scioscia years have been the most productive stretch in franchise history, racking up a .537 winning percentage, two division titles, and a world championship.  Though Bill Stoneman is far from perfect and has an inconsistent history of evaluating free agents, he has assembled a formidable organization in terms of scouting and signing amateur and minor league talent.  The first wave of prospects -- Kotchman, Kendrick -- is just starting to hit the majors, so we're about to learn if the acclaim the farm system has garnered has been worthwhile.

Whatever players Stoneman hands his manager, Mike finds a way to maximize them.  Scioscia is a far more aggressive manager than most of his AL counterparts, commanding stolen bases and hits-and-runs and sacrifice bunts.  In a lineup devoid of power beyond its one superstar, Scioscia has to find ways to squeeze runs out of his starting nine.  His bunt calls tend to work out very well, despite a few exceptions, and the team routinely steals a high number of bases at a high rate of success.

Another strength of the Stoneman/Scioscia era has been pitching, but for the first time this century Bud Black will not be mentoring Halo arms.  Mike Butcher, who spent years in the organization before taking a year's sojourn with former Angel bench coach Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay, has returned to take his place.  Butcher coached several Angel pitchers in the minors, so should be familiar with their strengths and weaknesses, which should provide some continuity for the pitching staff.

SUMMARY

Most major publications have picked either the Angels or A’s to take the West again. The Angel bullpen is much improved, and if they stay healthy, there’s no weakness in the starting rotation. The offense will continue to be middling at best, and if Vlad goes down with any significant injury, it’s game over. It’s really up to the Angel arms to pitch their way to the playoffs. Prediction: Oakland’s 93 wins was good enough to win the division last year, and it’s what the Angels will get in winning the division this year.