Looking Forward to 2007 - Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Preview: A New Wardrobe

In 2006, I pondered baseball history’s problematic correlation with English royal history, in light of the inaugural World Baseball Classic and the plight of mediocre-to-bad Major League Baseball teams. In retrospect, the connection was forced and I wasn’t happy with the presentation. This year, I hope to talk more intelligibly about the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 10th MLB campaign.
The Latest Fashion

The most obvious change to the 2007 Diamondbacks is a new skin: that is, a brand new uniform set.

The mid-1990s were a turning point in sports fashion. It was when leagues and merchandisers got serious about marketing athletic gear to the average person, not necessarily to the serious or even casual fan. Besides phone-book-sized catalogs listing T-shirts for male fans and pink caps for women fans, this marketing push necessarily emphasized design – thoughtful or otherwise. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ original set, unveiled in 1995 for a field debut in 1998, had a defined set of colors (black, purple, copper, teal), styles (with and without pinstripes for both home and road), logos (2 different “snake D’s"), and wordmarks (typeface, font effects, word choice). There were numerous mix-and-match opportunities to create over a dozen different sets on the field, and many appealing looks off the field in the form of branded shirts, caps, memorabilia, and so on. Black (the de facto color of “tough” nineties sports franchises) and teal (long known as “turquoise” to Arizona jewelers and bola tie fanciers) would be a dark-light parallel theme to purple and copper (a nod to the color scheme of owner Jerry Colangelo’s long established Phoenix Suns). Among uniform enthusiasts, a rare sighting of Omar Daal on a circa-1998 baseball card sporting a teal Diamondbacks cap has sparked long late-night discussions on provenance of the photo, its authenticity, and of course the fair-market value of said card. (This happens to be Daal’s second greatest accomplishment in Arizona, trailing only his being sent to Philadelphia in exchange for Curt Schilling.)

This profusion has been seen before (witness the 1970s Pittsburgh Pirates leisure-suit combos of black and gold, gold and black, black, black and gold, black, gold, and gold, black, white pinstripes and gold, plus a choice of standard and olde-tyme hats, plus a few variations I am not mentioning), but it is generally agreed that the seventies profusion of color and powder-blue polyester was due to drugs. The Diamondbacks’ profusion of color owed to a different inspiration. Just as with owner Jerry Colangelo naming Buck Showalter as his opening day manager 3 years before he had to and stocking his early rosters with premium-value, premium-priced veteran presence, it was part of a rationalized marketing strategy.

For 2007, with Colangelo long gone and a new set of management (upper, field, even middle management) in place, the goal was redirected to cost-cutting and refreshing the marketing strategy, for purposes of differentiation from the old regime (the one that hadn’t won anything in 5 years) and earning a reliable small-market kind of profit. Naturally, a brand new set of uniforms was involved, and was unveiled in the 2006-07 offseason. Red was the dominant motif, and the jerseys and pants were simplified so that white and a lightened copper would easily alternate with the red and some black (now used for the interior of logos and fonts). Purple was banished. A new wordmark ensured the enshrinement of the informal “D-Backs” nickname into canon.

Many observers have claimed that the red (official name: “Sedona red") was virtually identical to the “brick red” worn by the Houston Astros, and truthfully, they are correct. However, no one has been known to follow the Astros and the Diamondbacks simultaneously of their own free will, therefore the likelihood of confusion is quite low.

Sales of the new duds are expected to be quite good, though that will likely change as the gear eventually becomes tired or associated with losing or scandal. One is reminded of how when Charles Barkley came to the Suns in a 1992 trade and the club moved into a new arena, Colangelo simultaneously unveiled a new bold set of unis and declared that it was so classic it would last for 20 years. Well, the look barely made it past ten, and the current gray and orangey set worn by Steve Nash and Amaré Stoudamire constitutes the new classic. Expect the same thing to happen to the baseball team’s Sedona reds, no matter how attractive they may be today.
2006: What Went Right and Wrong

Tallying up the rights and wrongs, you would think a mediocre offense and a slightly sub-mediocre defense equated to a slightly sub-mediocre record for the 2006 Arizona Diamondbacks. You would be right. Entering 2007, the Diamondbacks continued to play like a struggling franchise, compiling its third consecutive losing season and essentially identical (.470 winning percentage) performances in 2005 and 2006.

Right: Offensive youngsters are integrated without collapse. New faces at first base, shortstop, center and right field indicate a strong farm system that can produce genuine ballplayers instead of disappointing tools guys.

Wrong: Young pitchers are not integrated without collapse. Two “E Gonzalez” pitchers tried to crack the starting rotation without success. Jose Valverde, Greg Aquino, and Casey Daigle failed to grab wide-open holes in the staff due to injury or their own incompetence. Manager Bob Melvin ended up relying on retreads of the Miguel Batista/Claudio Vargas ilk to fill the key roles on his staff beyond his top young pitcher, Brandon Webb.

Wrong: No breakout offensive performers. Not one semi-regular managed more than a 115 OPS+.

Wrong: Another poor year of outfield play and bad press. Suffering most of 2006 season with two aging outfielders, Arizona announced late that year that Luis Gonzalez would not be returning in 2007 and that they would hold an appreciation day for him; Gonzo was apparently the last to get the memo and publicly dissed the gesture. Shawn Green, back in his usual 2006 position of right field after a sojourn to center, slogged through another year of offensive and defensive decline; he was eventually traded to the Mets, but the Snakes are still liable for a large chunk of cash for him to continue his stylings for the 2007 Mets. These two men’s presence in the corners forced new acquisition Eric Byrnes to cover center field poorly.

Right: Brandon Webb wins the Cy Young.

Wrong: Russ Ortiz does not win the Cy Young, and doesn’t even come close. Unlike Green, Arizona is forced to dump him and now is liable for almost all his salary as he tries to rejuvenate his career with divisional rival San Francisco.
The 2007 Season

The 2006 W-L record masks a true changing of the guard, as a young talent pipeline consisting of players not all named “Josh” or “Brandon” has usurped the veteran leadership historically associated with the Diamondbacks. The team bases its hopes for the future on developing a homegrown stable of young offensive players, and piecing together a viable pitching staff around Brandon Webb. In 2006 the hitters showed they were ready to play but not ready to excel; the pitchers showed…well, wait 15 minutes and you’ll get a different opinion.
Catchers

What had been a substandard catching staff was stabilized in 2006 by the acquisition of Johnny Estrada from the Braves. He hit acceptably (302/328/444), and backup Chris Snyder, who stunk in 2005 as the everyday catcher, recovered his batting stroke as a backup (277/349/424). With Estrada passed on to the Milwaukee Brewers via a major off-season trade, the 2007 catching position is expected to be shared between Snyder and yet another promising young prospect, Miguel Montero. Montero is reputed to be the better hitter of the two, while Snyder (another instance of Nichols’ Law of Catcher’s Defense) is reputed to have the better glove. It is still anyone’s guess as to what manager Bob Melvin will emphasize in his daily choice of catchers, now that he doesn’t have an established veteran to work with.

Infielders

With the graduation of multiple homegrown prospects, this is now a stable crew and should remain so the next couple of seasons. All are regulars and won’t be platooned.

First Base

Conor Jackson, the first of the heralded prospects to get established, begins his second full season in the bigs with some question marks. On the good side, he played every day at first base and maintained his batting eye. On the downside, his HR power was of the Mark Grace variety, and he was in the top 10 in the NL of double plays grounded into. His defense was not of the Mark Grace variety. He says he expects to improve, but personality-wise, he is very easygoing: not likely to remind you of Scott Rolen. He will be fine at first for the next few years, but he still has development to do.

Shortstop

This was a shared position in 2006, with easy-chair-sitting veteran good guy Craig Counsell stepping in the first half of the season, and super-prospect Stephen Drew taking over the second half and not letting go. A left-handed batter just like his older brother J.D., Stephen Drew OPSed the highest of any regular or semi-regular on the 2006 Diamondbacks, and looks to have taken the lead as the Diamondbacks prospect most likely to dominate the NL, if one of them has the chance.

Third Base

After a breakout season in 2005 shifting between first base and the outfield, Chad Tracy moved to his original position of third base in 2006, but was unable to repeat his success. According to him and his manager, he was suffering from a chronically painful left knee that responded well to an off-season of rest and rehab. Like Conor Jackson, he is a pleasant guy and vows to prepare for a 2007 comeback season.

Second Base

Trade acquisition Orlando Hudson did exactly what was expected from him defensively (Gold Glove) and provided some surprising offense as a switch-hitter (outslugging Conor Jackson, for example). Settling down; not quite as likely to call his bosses “pimps” as he was when he was younger. No changes bad or good are predicted.

Outfielders

Again, the arrival of two young homegrown replacement regulars means the position should be set for 2007.

Left Field

Before discussing the left-field position, it is appropriate to give ex-left fielder Luis Gonzalez his due. As the franchise’s player of its first decade (better career value than Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling, arguably identical peak), Gonzo deserves to be associated with its surprising early success and deserves a pass for his subpar, injured final two seasons. It is also appropriate for the team’s uniform change to be invoked when he moved on to the Dodgers as a free agent after 8 full seasons in Arizona, attempting to pull off a Nomar-type resurrection.

That said, Eric Byrnes, he of the blond mop and the broadcast job awaiting him post-retirement, is scheduled to be Arizona’s everyday left fielder. Not an All-Star, but versatile enough to play all three outfield positions; as the self-proclaimed “slut of the lineup,” he will happily bat anywhere from leadoff to 8th. His batting style is wild, and his 795 OPS is slugging-heavy and on-base-light, but that would not be a crippling problem if he were your third-best outfielder. What you see is what you get, and management seems to value his fieriness as a counterweight to the placidity of the younger players. He is only signed for 2007 and will be eligible for free agency afterwards.

Center Field

Waiting on the year-old trade of pitcher Javier Vazquez to the White Sox has paid off for Arizona, as young Chris Young came up late in 2006, played well, and is penned into the everyday lineup for 2007. Has All-Star talent, will probably not be an All-Star in 2007, but will create wins. He is expected to lead off. Even today, some old-time D-Back fans still remember and pine for the days of Steve Finley in center, thinking that the World Series outfield of 2001 is still viable and that Finley ought to return. Ignore those fans: Young is the real deal. Comparisons could be made to a young Devon White, or even Mike Cameron if you feel up to it.

Right Field

Carlos Quentin, a college product long heralded by prospect hounds much as Conor Jackson was, had a similar story as Chris Young. In his case, he was waiting for incumbent Shawn Green to be shipped off to the Mets before getting a midseason shot and performing acceptably. Quentin looks to be of the “do everything well, nothing insanely great” school, and should progress. Currently fighting a shoulder tear in his left (non-throwing) shoulder.

Bench

In 2006, Tony Clark followed up a surprisingly successful season by proving Tony Clark was who we thought he was. He will remain the team’s prime pinch-hitter and first base substitute and is extremely valued by management for his willing to defer to Conor Jackson becoming the everyday first baseman.

Organizational soldier Andy Green was rewarded by an addition to 2006’s opening day roster, and was subsequently rewarded by barely playing (86 AB in 73 games). He has departed for Japan, while Alberto Callaspo, acquired in a minor trade last year, has impressed the brass, playing in every spring training game, and is currently the leading candidate for backup infielder at SS, 2B, and 3B.

There are three outfielders vying for two backup spots: Scott Hairston (younger brother of Jerry, perpetually frustrated prospect); Jeff DaVanon (elderly incumbent backup); and Dave Krynzel (failed Brewers prospect acquired in the Davis-Estrada trade). DaVanon will be battling some spring injuries into April, so the organization will not have to decide just yet who to jettison via waiver or trade. None of them is likely to break out and take a starting job here or anywhere else. Joe Borchard’s agent can rest easy.

Robby Hammock, a legacy of the Baby Backs false prospect class of 2002-03, was released a couple of years ago and re-signed, and is making a last-minute bid this spring to stick as a catcher-corner infielder-corner outfielder.

Pitching

Unlike the bats, the pitching prospects do not reveal a lot of promising arms, and those that did show promise have been traded off to other teams. A group of age 27-28 and up pitchers is expected to provide the bulk of the run prevention in order to help the under-27 offensive crew win games.

Starters

Brandon Webb beat out many credible competitors to win his first NL Cy Young award in 2006. His hard sinker provides his share of strikeouts along with groundouts, and the horrible control and defense that threatened to derail him has turned around in two years. There is no reason to assume he can’t continue on his current path.

Being that he is a farm-system product, Webb is set through 2009 at reasonable guaranteed money for both him and the club. In contrast, his #2-#4 compatriots are newly acquired, premium-priced (though not Gil Meche-priced) and meant to provide some daily rotation certainty instead of the perpetual uncertainty and underperformance of 2005-06.

Randy Johnson: Pass.

Doug Davis is the major-league-ready component of the Johnny Estrada trade with the Brewers. Looking at his career, it literally began in 1999, but it only truly started in 2003 when he hooked up with Milwaukee and was left alone. Looking at his season-by-season numbers, you see very good health, not that much of a threat to allow HRs, and a worrying year-by-year increase in walks allowed. What with two different teams (Seattle and Philadelphia) having slobbered over the real Jamie Moyer, it is tempting to think Davis is attempting to become the next finesse lefty to appear on Moyer Idol. Arizona agrees, as they extended Davis’s contract through 2009 at $7.3 million per. He is easily the biggest risk of the offseason revamp.

Livan Hernandez was acquired seemingly not for his innate pitching qualities, but because of opportunity: the Washington Nationals were cutting payroll in a lost season, and Arizona valued his ability to eat innings. He is signed only through 2007 at $7 million, and unlike with Davis the club seems anxious to keep their options open with him, either by pushing him to throw some CGs in an NL West pennant drive, or by trading him to a contender.

There are two 23-year-old Gonzalezes vying for the fifth starter role, and they are vaguely equivalent to the famed Kano twins in that they are not twins, or even related to one another. Enrique Gonzalez has more innings but a worse ERA history, while Edgar Gonzalez has fewer innings but a possibly higher ceiling.  Or maybe it’s the opposite. I wonder if you should really care. Both will be given a shot in April to start while The Big Unit recovers from injuries, and one will be handed the fifth starter role after he returns. In general, the team seems to be happy with leaving this particular slot open at the start of the season for continuing tryouts or a fortuitous waiver claim (as Claudio Vargas turned out to be).

Dana Eveland, yet another Brewers prospect acquired in the Estrada trade, is slotted to be a long reliever at the start of the season, with hopes of developing into an eventual rotation starter for 2008 and beyond. Suspects Casey Daigle and Dustin Nippert return and could end up in a fluid situation shuttling between the minors, the bullpen, and spot starts depending on the needs of the big club.

……… Hmmm, did I say “Pass.” on Randy Johnson? Well, that was kind of short, as for the first time in over a decade he is not projected to be a staff ace for anyone. Johnson, acquired from the Yankees in an off-season trade, is expected to provide solid innings in back of Webb and Davis, and to bring the electric eyes of the national baseball media to Arizona as he strives for 300 career wins. The assumption is that he will have an easier time doing that living in his year-round hometown and not having to deal with the New York media crunch. Statheads have analyzed Johnson’s Yankee outings and concluded his Batting Average with Balls in Play indicates a much higher quality pitcher than Yankee fans had observed on the field. As always, injuries will be a determining factor for such an old pitcher: Johnson is recovering from an owie (offseason back surgery) and will probably miss the first two weeks of the season.

Relievers

Not much was expected of the 2006 D-Backs bullpen, and for the most part they achieved down to those expectations. With a beefier starting rotation, the hope seems to be to give the pen less of a stage to screw up on. It’s kind of the opposite of the baseball-wide tendency to lavish more and more innings on specialist relievers.

By statistics, incumbent washed-up closer Jose Valverde and much-maligned traded-for-El-Duque washed-up closer Jorge Julio saved roughly the same number of games in 2006 for Arizona. Both were streaky, and Bob Melvin was inclined to play the hot hand. For some reason (Jorge is scheduled to make $3.9 million to Jose’s $2 million), Melvin anointed Valverde the closer for 2007 and Julio as his top set-up man, and the organization was also sending out rumors that Julio is available in trade. These rumors proved to be well-founded when Julio was shipped to the Marlins for pitching prospect Yusmeiro Petit. I don’t know much about Petit, except that since he used to be a Mets prospect, he must be good.

A trio of right-handed relievers (Luis Vizcaino, Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders) covered the middle relief positions well enough in 2006. Vizcaino left for the Yankees in the Johnson trade, meaning that Melvin will need to find another reliable arm to back up the Brandons. Juan Cruz wasn’t great, but he wasn’t embarrassing. Same goes for 24-year-old right-handed hard thrower Tony Peña (apparently not related to the former catcher or his prospect son).

The Snakes went LOOGY-free for nearly all of 2006. Young semi-prospect Doug Slaten is the only current candidate to fill the “role,” but his ability to stick is questionable. It’s possible that the D-Backs will sneak a veteran LOOGY from another team onto their opening day roster, as it would be strange for Bob Melvin to accept this alleged handicap for a second consecutive year.
Field Management

Bob Melvin starts his third season in Arizona. He is as sunny-faced and bushy-tailed as ever, probably more so now that he has his own set of players to manage and not an inherited bunch from the Bob Brenly era. Bryan Price remains the pitching coach and his report is incomplete. It will probably be based on how the young pitchers he has end up doing, rather than how the old goats perform.

Melvin and Price have undergone no known player rebellions. However, during 2006 catcher Johnny Estrada offered public criticisms of both of them, regarding playing time, pitch selection, pitcher warm-up routines: things like that. That is probably the major reason he was made available to teams via trade despite his productive 2006.
Upper Management

Cherub-faced GM Josh Byrnes is doing some interesting things. Most bad GMs whose work lives on in Internet infamy forever have one of two failings. On one hand, they can be too desirous of acquiring proven talent. The bad-Yankee days fall into the former category, trading away the farm for proven good veterans. The Dave Littlefield strategy, trading away the farm for proven low-ceiling veterans of uncertain goodness, is also an instance of the proven talent trap.

On the other hand, they can fall in love with one aspect of their unproven talent, to their detriment. This trap is best demonstrated by the Seattle Mariners of the early 2000s. They were convinced that they had baseball’s greatest young pitchers in their farm system, and turned down trade offers under the maxim of “you can never have enough young pitching.” As Gil Meche and Joel Piñeiro made it to Seattle and stalled, and as other guys like Jeff Heaverlo and Ryan Anderson never made it at all, the Mariners soon fell into their current parlous state as their older hitters retired and were clumsily replaced in the free-agent market. They discovered that they had too much young pitching and too little young hitting.

Byrnes is committing the Diamondbacks strongly to a young offense, a veteran starting staff, and a flexible bullpen in an attempt to get back to the postseason. The overriding goal off-the-field (thanks to his supportive owner/bosses Ken Kendrick and Jeff Moorad) is cost control in a stretched sporting market. No more champagne signings: The club’s estimated payroll will be less in 2007 than it was in 2000 despite the huge increase in baseball-wide revenues since then. But no fire sales either: Name players remain on the roster and will always be pursued instead of throwing up their hands and crying poor. Instead of directly trying to compete with the glamour teams in Los Angeles, San Francisco, which was Colangelo’s preference, the club’s tactic now is to put together a low-budgeted Rockies-type team with a difference: they have a chance of winning something.

Longtime farm director Mike Rizzo left for the Nationals during 2006 to become their assistant GM. It remains to be seen whether the team can continue to produce quality young talent, given the probability that all teams regardless of their wealth will react to the probable high-paid free agent flops (of 2007 and beyond) by pouring more resources into scouting that young talent themselves.
Conclusions

There is freedom in following a franchise with a carefully constructed origin and tradition, and without an organic one created over decades and decades of play. There is no Yankee or Red Sox drama to tear at your soul. They also get to “draft” in the Moneyball revolution created by Billy Beane and his acolytes. Josh Byrnes can try playing GM without a book written about him or a voracious press corps following him around constantly measuring him against his former boss Theo Epstein. On the business side, when the team decides to stop looking like purple warts playing baseball, it can do so just like that, without offending a stick-in-the-mud fan base who lived their entire lifetime watching purple warts play baseball and taking their children to see purple warts play baseball.

With freedom comes opportunity. In spring Cactus League action, the Diamondbacks do not train locally, preferring to solidify their base in Tucson. If you reside in the Phoenix area, you can while away the time with a trip to the Southeast Valley to catch the Cubs, Athletics, and Angels: three different teams with three wildly different histories and approaches to team-building. If you brave the run-down neighborhoods of West Phoenix, you can catch the Brewers in a tiny, sunny modern ballpark. If you head out to the slightly prosperous western suburb of Western Peoria, you can see the Mariners and Padres fan base and their contribution to a bustling neighborhood of retail, hotels, and restaurants. If you head out east to the very prosperous resort town of Scottsdale, you can see Barry Bonds do whatever he’s allowed to do in public view. If you head out farther west to the under-roaded flatlands of Surprise, you can see the alien franchises of Texas and Kansas City play in a town whose citizenry is scarcely better established than they are.

The order of popularity of the various Cactus League teams consists of Cubs (obviously), Giants (not so obviously – is San Francisco weather that awful in March?), and then a tie between the Mariners (rain stinks) and the D-Backs. The local nine are third in their own state.

So no one complains, everyone is busy, everyone is building something new, without fuss or public opposition: That’s the way land and property developers in this town works, and that’s how the Diamondbacks work. Every day, a new wardrobe is donned.

And I predict the young will work together with the old to carry the club over .500 again: 85-77. They will be fortunate if the NL West decides to re-live 2005.