Looking Forward to 2007 - Atlanta Braves

As you're probably aware, in 2006 the Braves failed to win their division for the first time in, like, 4-EVAH.  The recap, as haiku:

    In time, all leaves fall.

    Jorge Sosa:  Antichrist.

    Autumn winds in June.

What went wrong:  Jorge Sosa.  June.

What went right:  Adam LaRoche.  Brian McCann.

What shimmering hint of Summer's Country did glint the hearts of men:  John Smoltz eluding his shadow once more.

What is to come, as heroic couplet:

   The Gods of Old, arisen new again

   Reitsma, Remmy banished from the pen

   O'er lands where evil hence all hope waylaid

   Men of skill once more shall ply their trade.

Okay, so the iambs are a little jiggered.  Squint and look askance.  It's a baseball site for God's sake.

What we fear:  Mark Redman.  Edgar Renteria's "range."

What we're looking forward to:  Kelly Johnson.  Brian McCann.

The darkness that doth shutter the hearts of men: Gorgorath, Devourer of Outs descended in human form unto right field.

Positional Previews:

C - Brian McCann: 

I tried to warn Dan Zymkrewsheweski that his 2006 ZiPS projection for Brian McCann was too low.  He had his date of birth wrong on the spreadsheet, so I just assumed that the calculated projection was incorrect as well, but, noooooo, Dan said he had it right in the computer (like you can trust those things anyway).  Needless to say, Brian McCann made the Leap (capital "L") to stardom in 2006 and Dan looked the fool yet again.  The guy can rake (McCann, not Zymbalinskywitz)...and did I mention that he just turned 23 (again, talking about McCann)?  Behind only a few guys with one-name status (Albert, Miguel,...uh...Joe), McCann ranks as one of the most valuable properties in baseball right now - the perfect storm of major league production and oh-my-god-I-can't-believe-this-guy-plays-for-the-minimum price tag.  Did I mention that he just turned 23? -- ANH

(In case you missed it 'tween the lines, we expect McCann to repeat last year's superstar turn and battle Joe Mauer for the title of most valuable catcher since Mike Piazza for the next decade or two.  He's just RDG -- real damn good. -- SMH)

1B - Scott Thorman/Craig Wilson: 

Scotty Thorman is big.  Just huge.  He's like, 7'5" or something.  I'm pretty sure he ate Adam LaRoche this offseason.  Pittsburgh was very surprised when they received a bucket of puke in exchange for Mike Gonzalez and Brent Lillibridge.  Oh, and Craig Wilson too.

(What we're looking at here is a true L/R platoon with Thorman, or Thor as his teammates so quirkily call him, getting most of the at bats.  We don't expect Thor and Wilson, who has yet to acquire an entertaining nickname but might as well be called Loki to maintain the Nordic vibe, to replicate Adam LaRoche's stellar 2006 but we do expect about 85% thereof for change on the dollar and Mike Gonzalez in the to-go box. -- SMH)

2B - Kelly Johnson:

Back in spring training there was talk of a battle to determine who would be the Braves' starting second sacker.  No one in the know was fooled.  The job was Kelly Johnson's all along, and no amount of Martin Prado channeling Joe Morgan for a month was going to change that.  Sure enough, leading off and playing second base for your 2007 Atlanta Braves...Kelly Johnson.  His line this year will be something close to .400/.640 (and that's just BA/OBP).  He will also play stellar defense (thanks, Mr. Hubbard) and steal 40 bases on his way to crafting a peaceful resolution to all conflict in the Middle East.  All hail His name. -- ANH

(Admittedly, the Kelly Johnson as Superman motif is an inside joke for the few geeks still hanging about on Usenet, but as all good jokes must, it contains a glimmer of truthiness at its core.  When he debuted as a prospect back in the day Kelly Johnson was Chipper Jones, right down to the inability to field short.  A move to 3B followed by the outfield, and several injuries later, he's answering yes to any proposition that might get him a roster spot in the Bigs.  So he's moved back to the infield, over to 2B where Glenn Hubbard will teach him to adequately play the position. 

This is one of the things that makes the Braves continuously competitve despite a shrinking, non-inflation adjusted payroll.  They find market inefficiencies and exploit them.  For a while there (and to some degree still) their best move was to trade midling pitching "prospects" for useful parts banking on the overvaluation other clubs had for "Braves' pitching prospects."  Micah Bowie and Ruben Quevedo, we're looking at you.  Rob Bell, come on down!  That game is almost played, so the Braves have found a new lever to exploit, namely the fact that Glenn Hubbard can teach pretty much anyone to play 2B.

All kidding aside, we expect Johnson to hit for doubles power with double-digits homers thrown in, run well and provide a nice little OBP at the top of the lineup.  We expect him to solidly improve upon Marcus Giles' poor 2006 and we're pretty sure he'll outperform Giles over the next five years too.  Johnson isn't Jeff Kent but he's a once stellar prospect with a nice upside when healthy, and placing him back on the infield does nothing but increase his value. -- SMH)

SS - Edgar Renteria, no matter how posters of a starry-eyed Brent Lillibridge Honeycutt pastes to the ceiling above his bed: 

This year, Baseball Prospectus revamped their prospect measurements to include defense.  The logic behind it goes something like this:  good news - your favorite SS prospect hits like a first baseman, bad news - he fields like a DH.  Anyway, to account for this, Harry Potter or Nate Silver or whoever it is that does those projections decided that UPSIDE (a measure of potential over a player's first five useful seasons - probably an acronym) should include defense.  Those of you waiting for me to relate this to who's on short for the Braves this year, prepare to have your minds blown.  Brent Lillibridge (the "throw in" in the LaRoche-Gonzalez trade) has the second highest UPSIDE of anybody in the Braves system.  Apparently, the kid plays a mean short and projects to hit .277/.349/.428 this year in the majors.  Miguel Tejada or Derek Jeter this is not, but considering Renteria's .286/.347/.412 projection and, uh, range in the field, PECOTA is telling us that Lillibridge, not Ol' Bug Eyes, ought to be the Braves' starter at short in 2007.  We all know that this isn't going to happen, but this is a long-winded way of saying that the Braves should be fine at short with some major upside if everything breaks right for Lillibridge. -- ANH

3B - Chipper Jones: Last year, my wife and I bought a place in Midtown.  At night, you can hear the trains creak by in the distance.  They remind me of Chipper Jones' knees. This distinguishes his knees from his feet in that his knees continue to nominally work.  Still, for the 120 games he's on the field, ole' Chippy is a HOF bat. -- SMH

CF - Andruw Jones in a walk year. -- SMH

*UPDATE:*  The collective wisdom points out that our pithy little send-off for Andruw is hardly obvious in meaning.  Does it mean we think Andruw is going to crush all holy hell out of the ball, smack 50+ dingers again and rocket himself into the ARod stratosphere for paychecks, or does it mean we expect Andruw to press, try to do to much, lose his plate discipline for weeks or months on end and frustrate his most rabid fans while still being one of the most valuable commodities in the game?  The answer is "Yes."  And when it's all said and done?  260/350/520.  You know; Andruw. -- SMH

RF - Jeff Francouer: 

Nicknames for Jeff Francouer:  Frenchy.  Freedom.  Captain Freedom Pants.  Cheeze Eating Surrender Monkey.  Something Special In The Air.  The Smile That Saved America.  Galacticus<strikethrough>Gorgorath</strikethrough>, Devourer of <strikethrough>Worlds</strikethrough> Outs.  If things go right?  Sammy Sosa.  If things go wrong?  Jeff Francouer. -- SMH

*UPDATE:*  In recognition of Cap'n Cowbell's early season show of patience (he walked TWICE in one game!) he may also be called Happy Walksmore, but only until he regresses back to his Swatty McFlyout form.

LF - Ryan Langerhans/Matt DIE-az: 

Do you ever get the feeling that you shouldn't even have bothered?  I mean, you're sitting there, all Ryan Langerhansy like, and it occurs to you that you hit like a poor man's Brett Butler, just without the OBP and uncanny baserunning instincts.  Then out of nowhere, or Kansas City, which as far as you can tell is a lot like nowhere, along comes this Matt DIE-az fool who takes your spot in the lineup and proceeds to hit .327 because - get this - the Braves decided to check his vision.  Rob and Rany can micro-analyze the Royals all that they want, but the possibility that all it took to turn Matt Diaz - decent bat to have around as a fourth outfielder if a little old for his league -- into Matt DIE-az -- hits for average, OBP and enough power to maintain a starting position as a corner OF in the majors -- was an eye test and some contacts ought to tell you all you need to know.  Optometry kids.  Look into it.

When Langerhans joins Andruw and Cap'n Coconut The Outmaker in the lineup Atlanta fields the best defensive outfield in the majors.-- SMH

*UPDATE:* The early returns are in and dear God, please make Ryan Langerhans a defensive replacement and play the ReNu every day.  Now!  A poor man's Brett Boone can NOT strike out ever third at bat.  Ever.

The Rest of the Offense (the bench) -- Brayan Pena (C), Pete Orr (2B, 3B, OF), Chris Woodward (2B, SS, 3B):

Brayan Pena is a switch-hitting catcher with decent defensive skills who looks very much like he rides the short bus in from the Sunshine Center every day before the games.  We call him Corky, because we're vile, mean people who find entertainment in the trials and tribulations of others.  Bite me.  Corky can hit for some average, but it's empty at best.  Little power, no peripheral on-base skills with catcher's speed.  Of course, even with catcher's speed he is notably faster than Brian McCann, who is the slowest professional athlete I've seen since Damon Berryhill lost a foot race to Sid Bream.

Pete Orr is fast, but can't steal bases even on the rare occasions where he makes it to first.  His only real usefulness comes as pinch runner when a single is needed to score a runner from second.  He can't hit, he can barely field and his base-running instincts border on my own.  Plus, he's Canadian.  As such, Bobby Cox loves him.  He's on the team only because Willy Aybar got hurt in spring training.

Chris Woodward has been with the team exactly nine days and I already hate him.  Get out of Kelly's way you impertinent bastard! -- SMH

All of the other backup positions are covered by the platooners, all of whom can play the OF oddly enough.  On the days they're not starting Thorman or Wilson will provide pop off of the bench.  Langerhans will get playing time as a defensive replacement as well.

Starting Pitchers:

John Smoltz

Tim Hudson

Chuck James

Mike Hamp....er, Mark Redman

Lance Cormi...er, Kyle Davies 

On February 27th, still days before the first pitch would be thrown at the first Grapefruit League game of 2007 the Atlanta Journal-Constitution ran an article about who would start for the Atlanta Braves on opening day.  That article could have been written in November and the content wouldn't have changed.  As long as his arm didn't fall off John Smoltz was going to take the mound for the Braves.  His arm did not fall off.  Such is the state of the once mighty Atlanta Braves pitching staff - the player who most closely resembles a "sure thing" will turn 40 in May.  Then again, there are worse bets to be made when it comes to starting pitchers than Smoltz, who overcame a terrible first start last year to pitch 232 innings of sub-3.50 ERA ball - his highest ERA since 1994.  Yes, John Smoltz is about to be 40-something, but he also struck out 211 batters last year and has had few arm problems since moving back to the starting rotation a couple of seasons ago.  Expect another 200 innings of 3.5-ish ERA, which would look good at the top of most team's rotations. -- ANH

Do you remember how excited you were when the Braves traded Chuckie Thomas and two bags of magic beans for Tim Hudson?  No?  You must not be a Braves fan.  Anyway, Tim Hudson is back...in POG form!  See, back in the day Hudson sported a nasty splitter that kept his k-rate in the above average to good range while keeping his HR rate fairly microscopic.  That Tim Hudson hasn't existed for the last three years.  This year, the splitter is back in a big way and so is the original optimism that surrounded the Hudson acquisition.  My gut says Hudson battles Smoltz for "lowest ERA on the team" honors this year. -- ANH

Chuck James is the most exciting pitching prospect to come out of Atlanta's system since Bruce Chen.  The primary difference between Chen and now (a pun!) is that for James the excitement seems to be deserved.  James does things like "striking out batters" and "not walking them all the time."  That makes him very nice to behold to a populace weening itself off of four years of Horacio Ramirez (thanks, Mariners).  He needs to keep the homers allowed down but otherwise we're very excited by his potential.  He dominated spring this year with a showcase change-up added to his arsenal.  He lists himself as Chuck H. James in the media guide.  I think the H. stands for "Hotlips" but I can't verify that.  Entertain your friends by shouting "I'm Chuck James, #####!" every time he strikes someone out. -- SMH

Mark Redman is, uh, well, um, he used to pitch for Florida.  He doesn't cost much.  He's left-handed.  OK, I guess by now, you're getting the picture that there might be a fair drop-off between the Braves' third and fourth starter.  If you're a Braves fan, just keep repeating "John Burkett" when it's Redman's turn on the mound and see what happens.  -- ANH  (Here, let me help.  Mark Redman is what you get when Mike Hampton hurts himself three weeks into spring training.  Definition of "replacement level", meet our starting rotation. -- SMH)

Lance Cormier was AWESOME in spring training.  Then he hurt himself.  Then Kyle Davies, who kind of sucked in spring, was called up to face the vaunted Mets lineup.  Which he dominated like the whiz-monkees that they are.  Neither of these guys is an ace.  Neither of these guys is Jorge Sosa.  Both are better than Horacio Ramirez.  Everybody wins!  Except the Mets, who have Jorge Sosa, or the Mariners, who have Horacio Ramirez. -- SMH

Relief:

Apparently, it's very disheartening to lose games every time one of your relief pitchers makes an appearance.

In 2006, Jorge Sosa sucked so bad as a starter they made him the closer.  That's how bad Chris Reitsma was.  In 2006, Chad Paranto was given a shot at closing.  In 2007 Chad Paranto will occasionally close THE SIXTH in preparation for the professional relief pitchers to come in and pitch the seventh, eighth and ninth. 

Mike Gonzalez, acquired for the aforementioned puked-out remains of Adam LaRoche (along with the shortstop of the future) is the lefty.  Rafeal Soriano, heretofore referred to by his Klingon warrior name "Kcrechnor" is the righty.  Those guys will be used in the seventh and eighth innings according to line-up handedness.  Bob Wickman, who was unhittable in his short time in Atlanta last year, is the closer.

Paranto is the first "other guy" out of the pen when Mark Redman starts.  McCay McBride, who has far too many capital letters in his name and is the non-Gonzo lefty, Oscar "The Vulture" Villereal and Tyler Yates round out the "why are we in the pen this early" section of the relief corps.  Villereal is the early call should Redman implode by the fourth.  Or third.  Yates is a situational bridge from starter to set up much like Chad Paranto.

Now is the appropriate time to remind everyone that John Schuerholz turned Horacio Ramirez into Rafeal Freakin' Soriano straight up, one for one.  That's just stupid.  The man's a genius.  Klingon Warrior has completely dominated in the early goings of '07.  Mike Gonzalez, the other stud reliever picked up (for an actual valuable commodity) has struggled in his first few outings but looked better the last couple of games.  He attributes his initial problems to nerves, claiming to have "never pitched in a game that mattered."  That tells you pretty much all you need to know about Pirate baseball, huh?

*UPDATE:*  Gonzalez' struggles continue through the second week of the season leading many to speculate that he is hurt.  This speculation is not idle because he's Mike Gonzalez and hurt is pretty much his default status when he's not retiring a thousand batters in a row.  This is a cause for consternation in Braves nation.

McBride struggle mightily with his control and was demoted around the 10 game mark.  At the same time Chad Paranto pulled a groin and went to the DL.  McBride is replaced by Steve Colyer, a 28 year old journeyman lefty who is effective if he can find the zone.  Big guy.  Throws hard.  Will be used when Cox wants a pivotal strikeout or has mop-up work.  Paronto's slot is filled by Peter Moylan, another 28 year old journeyman who throws righty.  Early returns suggests Cox has Moylan pegged as his "need a double play to get out of it" guy.  Braves fans shouldn't want to see either Colyer or Moylan facing tough hitters in pivotal situations. -- SMH

Waiting in the wings:

Most of the interesting kids are up already with McCann and Freedom McFrydaddy heading the offense and Chucky H. James dropping the average age of the pitching staff below 35.  That being the case there are a few mentionalbes left in the minors (or on the DL.)

Mike Hampton broke his elbow again and will not pitch this season.

Willy Aybar is out until at least late April with a bum hand.  When he returns he'll replace Orr or Woodward.  He'll improve on either.

*UPDATE:*  Aybar has been suspended indefinitely by the team for what appears to be failing to show for rehab checkups.  Aybar, who was acquired along with Danys Baez last year (in exchange for Wilson Betemit) has seen his star fall steadily with the Braves seemingly since he first arrived.  At the time of the deal Aybar was touted as Betemit's heir-apparent as super-sub and possibly the club's full-time 2B of the future, yet by winter it was obvious the team had no plans to start him at any position.  While the Braves are known to give wayward players long ropes by which to hang themselves (<cough>J*hn R*ck*r</cough>) Aybar is quickly maneuvering himself out of the organization altogether.  Martin Prado or any of the SS prospects (see below) could take his spot at any time.

Yunel Escobar, Elvis Andrus and Brent Lillibridge all play shortstop and all are top-tier prospects.  None of them will forcibly move Renteria off of the position but either Escobar or Lillibridge could step in if Bugsy ever hurt himself.  Either of those guys would drastically improve the defense at short.  Renteria is Jeter-esque out there.

Van Pope and Eric Campbell are your primary prospects should Chipper get hurt before Aybar comes off of the DL.  Most likely we'd be subjected to Chris Woodward or Pete Orr starting, and that's just scary.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia probably needs to learn a new position.  Brian McCann is real damn good.

Matt Harrison is the name du jour in the starter's prospect pool.  Scouts like him and refer to him as the next Tom Glavine.  He reminds me of the last "next Tom Glavine", Horacio Ramirez.

Joey Devine still lives but his path to closing in Atlanta has signficantly more speedbumps now -- namely Mike Gonzalez and Kcrechnor. -- SMH

Management:

The best in baseball.  Bobby Cox intimated in spring training that he might hang them up in a couple or three years.  The Braves' loss is Cooperstown's gain.  All signs point to hitting coach Terry Pendleton being groomed to take his spot now that St. Leo has left us. 

John Schuerholz continues to amaze.  Horacio Ramirez for Rafael Soriano.  Need I say more?  It's one more year before the team clears all of the contracts inked back in the "yeah, we'll spend money for talent" days, before Time Warner ate the sun.  Schuerholz is quietly but competently managing his rosters and budgets into a competitive stance that accounts for the post TW/Liberty Media "we would rather spend the money on booze and whores" upper management philosophy.  -- SMH

Conclusion:

Braves good.  Win division.  Eat banana.