Looking Forward to 2007 - Cleveland Indians

What happened?  How did a team coming off a 93-win season, with an impressive core of young stars, collapse as completely as the 2006 Cleveland Indians did?  In order to discuss the 2007 Indians, it’s important and perhaps necessary to run through the failings of the 2006 team.

The easy answer is that the bullpen went from the best in baseball to being historically awful.  After the 2005 season, Bobby Howry and David Riske left as free agents, while Arthur Rhodes was sent packing to Philadelphia in the Jason Michaels trade.  Once the ‘06 season began, things went from bad to worse.  In the span of ten minutes during the April 19th game at Baltimore, Rafael Betancourt and Matt Miller both injured themselves and missed extended periods of time.  Fernando Cabrera, dominant in a late-season callup in 2005, completely lost his mojo for a month after struggling at the World Baseball Classic.  Guillermo Mota, who came over in the Coco Crisp-Andy Marte deal, couldn’t get anybody out in a setup role, allowing 47 baserunners and 9 home runs in his first 25.1 innings.  Jason Davis, who at first glance had the best season of anyone in the Cleveland bullpen, was miserable for the first three and a half months of the season, allowing 56 baserunners in 31.2 innings through July 21.  Danny Graves, predictably, was a trainwreck.  And perhaps most notably, Fausto Carmona completely imploded when he was given the closer role following the trade of Bob Wickman to Atlanta.  After the Wickman trade, Carmona blew three saves in a week, went 0-7, posted a 7.76 ERA, gave up more than two baserunners per inning, and allowed 6 home runs in 31 innings.

It was a nightmare.

So with that in mind, Mark Shapiro and crew began work on the 2007 Indians.  As you might expect, they went out and got a bunch of relief pitchers.  Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Fultz, Keith Foulke, Joe Borowski, and Cliff Politte all signed as free agents.  At the same time, the front office addressed the second base issue that was created when Ronnie Belliard got shipped to St. Louis in a deadline deal.  Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown were traded to San Diego in exchange for Josh Barfield.  Finally, Shapiro and crew scooped up a couple of bargains in platoon outfielders David Dellucci and Trot Nixon.

Catcher: Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach

What you see is what you get from Uncle Vic.  Martinez is going to hit .300, he’s going to put up 50 extra-base hits, he’s going to walk 60-70 times, and he’s going to continue to have a miserable throwing arm.  There’s very little mystery here, but the question is how much time he’ll spend behind the plate and how much time he’ll spend at first base.  What’s often overlooked about Martinez as a defensive catcher is that he’s got quick feet and fields the position fairly well apart from his throwing arm.  Over the past two seasons, Martinez has played more games at catcher than Ivan Rodriguez and allowed fewer passed balls.  Kelly Shoppach is a good backup with some offensive upside.  He hasn’t hit much in 50 games in the majors but has put up good minor league power numbers to go along with his excellent glovework.

First Base: Ryan Garko and Casey Blake (and Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez)

This is perhaps the position with the most question marks in Cleveland.  One would expect Ryan F. Garko to open the season as the regular first baseman after last season’s .292/.359/.470 performance, but manager Eric Wedge said all spring that Garko’s spot on the 25-man roster was far from guaranteed.  Garko, a converted catcher, is thought of as a defensive liability at first base.  He struggled offensively last season in Buffalo but impressed from day one in Cleveland.  The Indians were said to be deciding between carrying Garko or a second utility infielder.  If they had decided to go with two utilityguys, Casey Blake likely would have gotten the bulk of the playing time at first base.  Blake is one of the more confounding players in recent Indians history.  Is he the guy who hit 28 home runs with a .354 OBP in 2004?  Is he the guy who needed a late-season surge to get his OBP above .300 in 2005?  Is he the guy who hit .304/.388/.519 in the first half of 2006?  Or is he the guy who hit .257/.319/.433 in the second half of 2006?  Regardless of which of those is the real Casey Blake, he’s likely to be no better than an average first baseman.  Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner are also candidates to get some playing time at first base.  We discussed Martinez above, we’ll get to the Pronk in the designated hitter comments.

Second Base: Josh Barfield and Mike Rouse

Barfield came over to Cleveland this offseason and was immediately handed the second base job.  He was entirely adequate in 2006, posting a .280/.318/.423 line with (by most accounts) average defense at second.  He’s still just 24 years old so there’s plenty of time to improve.  If that’s going to happen, he’ll likely need to become a more patient hitter.  Barfield had only 23 unintentional walks in 578 plate appearances last season.

Mike Rouse entered camp as the dark horse candidate in the utility infielder competition, but outlasted Joe Inglett, Hector Luna, and Luis Rivas to earn the job.  Rouse had an excellent spring with the glove and hit well when given the chance.  There’s no reason to expect Rouse to be a useful offensive player in the majors, but the Tribe appears to be more interested in defense than offense when it comes to their utilityman.

Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta and the utilityman

After an amazing 2005, Peralta came crashing back to earth in 2006.  At this point, it’s fair to say that he’s probably not as good as he was when he hit .292/.366/.520 and not as bad as his .257/.323/.385 performance last season.  Expect a bounceback to somewhere between the two performances.  The organization has never been thrilled with Peralta’s glovework, but he’s said to have improved his range over the offseason.  As of this writing, Peralta’s 24 years old (he turns 25 in May), so there’s plenty of reason to expect an improvement.  Jhonny appears to have lost weight over the offseason and gotten back into shape.  What remains to be seen is the impact that will have on his performance.  Barring some sort of catastrophe, Peralta’s job is almost completely secure as Rouse and Rivas are the only other other legitimate options in the organization.  Not that Luis Rivas should ever be considered a legitimate option for anything.

Third Base: Andy Marte

It’s time for Marte to stop being a prospect and start being a ballplayer, and it looks like may have done just that last August.  Through August 17, 2006, Marte’s career line was a pathetic .133/.216/.184 in 39 games.  The rest of the season, Andy settled in with 20 extra-base hits in 35 games.  He’s also a very good defensive third baseman.  Four times in the minors, Marte was voted the best defensive third baseman in his league.  Former Indians gold glover Travis Fryman has been tutoring him defensively this spring, and says Marte’s got great tools afield but needs to relax.

Casey Blake will likely be the backup third baseman.

Left Field: David Dellucci, Jason Michaels

Michaels was the everyday left fielder last season, a situation that didn’t go nearly as well as the Indians had hoped.  J-Mike hit well against southpaws, as always, but was utterly hopeless against right-handers.  He hit .252/.312/.354 in more than 330 plate appearances against right handed pitching, most of them in the second spot in the batting order and often stopping rallies before they even began.

As a result, David Dellucci has been brought in to play left field against righties in ‘07.  Dellucci has always hit northpaws well, putting up a career .271/.359/.468 line against right-handed pitching.  The Michaels-Dellucci platoon has the potential to be a massive upgrade over last year, without breaking the bank.

Center Field: Grady Sizemore

The best center fielder in the universe.  Led the league in games played, runs scored, doubles, and extra-base hits last year.  He hit 28 home runs, stole 22 bases at a 79% clip, plays a very good defensive center field, and is 24 years old.  There’s not a lot you can say about him, other than that Grady’s truly an amazing ballplayer.  His only weakness is a poor throwing arm.

Right Field: Trot Nixon, Casey Blake, Shin-Soo Choo

If first base is the biggest question mark on the team, right field is a close second.  Casey Blake is the incumbent in right.  It’s tough to know what to expect offensively from Blake, but he’s turned himself into a pretty good defensive right fielder with a terrific arm.

Shin-Soo Choo looked to have won a job for ‘07 with last year’s performance, hitting .295/.373/.473 after coming over from Seattle in the Ben Broussard deal.  Choo’s historically had problems with left-handed pitching, and his minor league performances suggest someone who’s likely to end up as a fourth outfielder.

Over the offseason, the Indians went out and got an older, more expensive, injury prone free agent version of Choo.  When Trot Nixon’s healthy, he crushes right-handed pitching.  His career line against righties is .292/.372/.513, and the Tribe got him for the bargain-basement price of one year, $3 million.  The downside to Nixon is that he’s seemingly rarely healthy and he’s totally hopeless against left-handed pitching: .213/.309/.325 over the course of his career.

Nixon will likely platoon with Blake, while Choo will probably open the season in Buffalo.

Designated Hitter: Travis Hafner

When he’s healthy, there’s no better hitter in baseball.  Over the past three seasons, Hafner has put up OPS+ numbers of 158, 170, and 183.  The Pronk has seemed a bit brittle over the past few seasons, but his injuries have been freak accidents: getting hit in the face by a Mark Buehrle pitch and breaking his hand when he got hit by a C.J. Wilson pitch.

For the last several years, Hafner has been hampered by an elbow injury that’s prevented him from playing first base, but he says he wants to get about one start a week in the field this season.

Starting Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, Paul Byrd, Jeremy Sowers, Fausto Carmona

A hidden strength.  None of these pitchers (with the possible exception of C.C. Sabathia) should be considered likely to make the All-Star team, but none of them (with the possible exception of Fausto Carmona) should be considerably worse than average.

Sabathia’s clearly the best of the bunch, and took a big step forward last season, cutting his walk rate by nearly a full walk per nine innings while increasing his strikeout rate and holding gopher balls relatively steady.  He’s a bit of an injury risk, as C.C. tends to miss a couple of starts each season with assorted aches and pains.  Last season, he strained an abdominal muscle (yes, there are muscles under there) and pitched just 2.1 innings in April.  Eric Wedge tends to ride the big fella harder than he probably should; Sabathia had three 120+ pitch starts in August and September, long after the Tribe was out of contention.  That workload may not be anything to be alarmed about, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

Jake Westbrook is the very definition of solid-but-unspectacular.  He doesn’t throw hard, he doesn’t rack up big strikeout totals, and he’s often very hittable.  On the positive side, he doesn’t walk people and induces a ton of double plays.  It adds up to a league-average innings eater, one that isn’t going to singlehandedly win you the division, but one that can be a consistent 12-15 game winner.  Jake’s biggest problem is that he’s wildly inconsistent.  He had four starts in which he gave up 7 or more runs, and seven starts in which he allowed 1 or fewer runs.  When the sinker’s working, it’s almost magical.  When it’s not, you might as well turn the TV off and go to bed.  It’s going to be a long night.

Cliff Lee’s completely maddening.  He’s a rare creature, a left-handed pitcher who can get it to the plate in the low-to-mid 90s, who also has a wicked slider.  On paper, he should be the best pitcher on the team.  Unfortunately for Indians fans, he’s got a rapidly declining strikeout rate, a home run rate that went through the roof last year, and a walk rate that was never all that great to begin with.  If he can stop the trends in his peripheral numbers, Lee can easily put up his third straight league-average season.  Cliff will begin the season on the disabled list with an abdominal strain.

It’s probably a tad premature to call Paul Byrd’s two-year, $14.25 million contract a bust, but it’s certainly safe to say the Indians didn’t get a bargain when they signed the veteran before last season.  Byrd allowed more than six runs per nine innings last year, cracked the American League’s “hits allowed” leaderboard despite pitching only 179 innings, and had the highest line-drive percentage of any pitcher in baseball.  His strikeout rate fell to a dangerously low 4.2 K/9, his walk rate was as high as it’s been in five years, and his home run rate was up.  There aren’t a lot of positive indicators for Byrd in 2007.  He’ll begin the season as the fourth starter, but may not get a long leash with phenom Adam Miller stashed in Buffalo.

After a rough first four starts in the big leagues, Jeremy Sowers put it all together in late July, throwing 23.2 consecutive scoreless innings.  Given his ultra-low strikeout rate (3.7 K/9 last season), it will be virtually impossible for him to be that dominating over the long-term.  He is, however, terrific at keeping the ball in the park and issues very few walks.  In 103 innings of AAA ball, Sowers allowed a grand total of one home run.  He got tagged for seven longballs in his first four MLB starts, but settled down and gave up just 3 home runs in his next 65.2 innings.  If he can continue to keep the ball in the park, Sowers will be a solid major league pitcher.  Barring massive increases in his strikeout rate, he’ll never be an ace.

2006 was a tale of four seasons for Fausto Carmona.  He made three starts in April, got crushed twice, and ended up back in Buffalo with a 7.94 major league ERA.  Carmona was recalled in May to serve as a middle reliever and was brilliant.  Over his next 22 appearances, he allowed 4 runs, gave up just five extra-base hits (no home runs), struck out a batter an inning, and posted a microscopic 0.95 ERA.  Carmona was the obvious choice to take over as the closer when Cleveland traded Bob Wickman to Atlanta at the deadline.  It was an unmitigated disaster.  From July 30th through August 23rd, Fausto pitched 9.2 innings, allowed 31 baserunners, 21 hits, and 17 runs, and lost five games.  Carmona’s run as the closer was one of the most remarkable meltdowns in Indians history.  He finished the season back in the starting rotation with four unremarkable starts.  Carmona will open 2007 in the majors, filling in for Cliff Lee while the left-hander recovers from his injury.

Bullpen: Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Miller, Jason Davis, Aaron Fultz, Fernando Cabrera, Tom Mastny

Bob Wickman may be gone, but his memory remains in the form of the newly-signed Joe Borowski.  In a lot of ways, JoeBo is a svelter version of Wickman: a closer who doesn’t throw particularly hard, gives up more home runs than you’d like, and is fairly hittable.  When he’s healthy, the 36-year-old Borowski’s an adequate-to-pretty good reliever.  After last season’s bullpen implosion, that sounds positively fantastic.

Roberto Hernandez may be 42 years old, but he’s still a useful pitcher.  Kool-Aid has put up back-to-back ERA+ numbers of 162 and 143 the last two seasons.  He’s another of the free agent reliever flotilla that landed on the shores of Lake Erie this summer.  Hernandez can still get the fastball up there in the mid-90s, though his strikeout rate was down last year.  He’ll open 2007 as a set-up man, getting the ball to JoeBo for the ninth inning.  Cleveland is Roberto’s sixth team in the last five years.

Rafael Betancourt has been the most consistent member of the Cleveland bullpen since his arrival in mid-2003.  Betancourt throws a hard fastball that’s straight as an arrow, which last season led to a high home run rate but a miniscule walk rate.  Raffy and Hernandez will share the duties as primary set-up man for Borowski.

Matt Miller is back at full strength after two seasons of elbow injuries.  The sidearmer has been nearly unhittable by right-handed batters over the course of his career, allowing a .206/.277/.276 line.  He’s been less effective against left-handers, allowing a career .395 OBP, but many of those walks have been of the intentional and “unintentional intentional” variety.  At 35 years old, Miller is relatively young by Cleveland bullpen standards, but fragile and perhaps approaching the decline phase of his career.

Jason Davis was just about the only Indians reliever who didn’t collapse down the stretch in 2006.  Davis was downright spectacular from July 25th through the end of the season, putting up a 1.14 ERA and allowing no home runs over his final 23.2 innings.  Overall, he put together a surprisingly useful season, with a 120 ERA+ and allowing only one home run all year.

Aaron Fultz begins the season as the designated left-hander in the bullpen.  Fultz had an ERA over 4.50 last year, but he had an absurdly high batting average on balls in play of .340.  That batting average, and his ERA, should come down in 2007.  Fultz should be a step up over last season’s bullpen lefties, Scott Sauerbeck, Juan Lara, and Rafael Perez.  As the only left-hander in the ‘pen, one would expect Fultz to serve as a LOOGY, but that may not necessarily be the case with three southpaws in the starting rotation.

Fernando Cabrera was miserable last year and hasn’t been great this spring.  The Indians still believe Cabrera can be a big part of their future, so they’ll do their best to keep him around.  Cabrera has a fastball that consistently hits the high 90s and a hammer slider, tools that have had the organization drooling for years.  This season will play a large role in determining his future role in the organization: closer, set-up guy, mop-up man, or Bill Wertz-style vague memory.

After Bob Wickman was traded to Atlanta and Fausto Carmona imploded, Tom Mastny won the closer job for a while last year.  The first Indonesian-born player in major league history, Mastny earned the role based solely on the fact that he was virtually the only member of the pen who was competent.  ‘Competent’ is a perfect word to describe Mastny.  Nothing about him is special; he doesn’t have a good fastball or a remarkable breaking ball.  Watching him pitch, there’s nothing that would suggest that Mastny would be any kind of prospect.  That said, he has extraordinary minor league numbers, keeps the ball in the park, and was acceptable during his two months in Cleveland last year.  Mastny opens 2007 as the sixth right-hander out of the bullpen, and he’ll likely be sent down when Matt Miller returns from a forearm strain.

Overall Outlook:

The Indians may be in baseball’s toughest division, but their outlook for 2007 is pretty good.  Last year’s Tribe outscored their opponents by 88 runs, and this year’s team appears likely to be improved at third base, shortstop, left field, right field, and in the bullpen.  They underperformed their pythagorean record by 11 games last year, which is unlikely to happen again.

If Peralta plays well, Marte plays up to his potential, the outfield platoons work, there are no major injuries to key players, and the bullpen doesn’t implode, this could be a 95-win team.  Not everything’s going to go perfectly, of course, so the Tribe will likely post a win total in the high 80s.  If things break their way, the Indians could be back in the playoffs this season.  In the AL Central, there’s a paper-thin margin between first place and fourth place.  It’s going to be fun watching how things shake out between the Indians, Twins, Tigers, and White Sox.
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