Looking Forward to 2007 - Detroit Tigers

The 2006 Tigers
The Detroit Tigers were the surprise team of 2006.  Going into the season, a .500 record would have been considered a success after winning 71 games in 2005 and 72 in 2004.  Instead, the Tigers raced out to an early lead before flattening out in late summer, then stumbling at the finish by losing their last five games.  Their poor finish gave the Twins the division title.  The late season struggle was forgotten soon after the Tigers beat the favored Yankees and A’s to win the AL Pennant for the first time since 1984.  They set the second highest attendance for the franchise (the ’84 Tigers hold the record of 2.7 million.) Justin Verlander won the Rookie of the Year award by winning 17 games with a 3.61 ERA.  Leyland took home his third manager of the year award. 

Mistakes Were Made

From my 2006 Looking Forward article.

Here’s the challenge. In 2005, Detroit got punked by Chicago and Cleveland – going 11-26 against the two. They went 8-11 against Minnesota and 10-9 v. KC. Unfortunately for the Tigers they play a lot of games against teams that are just plain better than they are. Yes, Chicago and Cleveland may regress, but they are still better clubs. Also, the Tigers went 9-9 in interleague play against the NL West. Now they have to play the NL Central. While that division has weakened, it probably will be stronger than the 2005 NL West, so they may lose ground there. To get to .500 they will have to start clobbering the weaklings of the AL (KC, TB, Bal), pick up a few on the second tier clubs (Minn, Tor, Tex) while not getting mauled by the elite 21-48 against Oak, LAA, Bos, NY, Cle, Chw.

In 2006, the Tigers picked up six games against the NL, five on the AL West, and sixteen against the AL Central.

Key Organizational/Managerial Decisions - 2006
1. Bringing in Leyland after 5 years out of the game.  While he had a strong record of success, there were questions regarding his age and time away from the game.  Leyland made gutsy moves to help bring the team the AL pennant.  As early as spring training Leyland laid down the law with Dmitri Young.  While going through off the field problems of his own making, Leyland made it clear Young would not be coddled and would have to earn his playing time.  He was cut by the Tigers in September.

2. Dropping Verlander into the rotation despite only 119 minor league innings and only 33 of those above A ball. Verlander was the face of the Tigers much like Mark Fidyrich 20 years ago.

3. Giving Joel Zumaya, another inexperienced pitcher, a significant role in the bullpen.

4.  Bringing in Kenny Rogers for two years $16 million at the age of 40. 

5. Not platooning and giving full-time jobs to Brandon Inge and Craig Monroe.  Even though their stats said to platoon, Inge responded with the best season of his career.  Monroe put up his usual numbers and was a post-season star.

6. Skipping pitchers fielding practice during spring training.

How Did They Do It?
Adding 24 victories to your record is simple:  first score about 100 more runs than you did in 2005, then cut 120 from your runs against. 

Runs Scored
Between 2005 and 2006, run scored increased about 4.5% in the AL.  So about 67 of the Tigers run increase was “real”.  This was accomplished primarily through full seasons by Curtis Granderson, Ordonez and Carlos Guillen; career years by Marcus Thames and Guillen; and a bounce back year by Ivan Rodriguez. 

Runs Against
Starters ERA 4.00 in 2006
Starters ERA 4.85 in 2005

Relievers ERA 3.51 in 2006
Relievers ERA 3.78 in 2005

The Tigers’ starters cut .85 from their ERA, while pitching almost exactly the same number of innings as in 2005.  With the increase in run scoring in the AL, that pitching improvement is so much more impressive.  Much of that difference came by replacing the 59 starts of Jason Johnson, Sean Douglass and Wil Ledezma in 2005 with the strong pitching of Verlander and Rogers.  Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson also improved from 2005.  While the bullpen improvement was smaller than that of the starters, the Tigers found a 100 mph fastball sensation in Joel Zumaya.

Looking Forward 2007

Key Organizational Decisions – 2007
1.  Trading for Gary Sheffield.  Sheffield was brought in from the Yankees and signed to an extension through the 2009 season.  He will DH for the Tigers as he has become a liability in the field.  Detroit gave up three minor leaguers for him - the closest to the majors is a talented, but injury-prone Humberto Sanchez.  While giving up pitching is always a risk, adding Sheffield will help their offense.  In 2006, Tigers’ DHs hit .259 with a .310 OBA and .461 slugging.  Zips predicts Sheff meeting those power numbers and surpassing the OBA by 60 points. 

While adding Sheff’s bat is a benefit, this may limit Leyland’s flexibility, primarily in giving Ordonez a day off at DH.  If you move Ordonez to DH for a rest, Leyland would more likely put Thames, Infante or Clevlen in the OF and happy-go-lucky Sheff to the bench.

2.  Signing Jeremy Bonderman to a four-year deal with the Tigers is worth $38 million.  Bonderman would have been eligible for free agency after the 2008 season.  One of the many problems of bringing up a pitcher so young is that they will hit free agency just as they are just entering their peak years.  Still, this contract will be up when he is 28.

3.  Signing Brandon Inge to a four-year contract extension.  Inge is a strong defender who puts decent enough numbers on the board to be at least average third-basemen for the short term.  Who would you have for the next four years?  Inge could be a conservative bet.  Inge had his first decent year against right handed pitching.  However, if he reverts back to form, it may be a David Bell like signing.

4.  Bringing Sean Casey back for another go at first base.  Casey was mediocre with the Pirates and downright lousy with the Tigers.  They brought him back for his defense and to push Chris Shelton.  Shelton started the season like Lou Gerhig, with a .783 slugging%.  For the rest of the year, his slugging was about half that.  Ten home runs in April, eight the rest of the way.  Marcus Thames is also getting playing time at first this spring.

A Quick Run Around The Diamond
Outfield
Ordonez had a good season returning from a couple injuried plagued years.  Granderson established himself as a solid major leaguer and Monroe had a typical season.  Still, the Tigers have to be a bit disappointed that Ordonez’ bounce back wasn’t to the monster years he had in Chicago.  While such a hope may be unrealistic, management can’t be happy about paying him Manny Ramirez money for Nick Swisher production.  Another concern is Granderson’s second half slide.  He had a .828 OPS in the first half and a .701 in the second.  I like Granderson, and expect him to exceed his Zips.

Outfield Subs
If they lost Ordonez or Monroe for any extended period of time, the Tigers have good alternatives in Marcus Thames or Brent Clevlen.  In a pinch, they could move Sheff back to the OF for a game or two.  If the Tigers lost Granderson, Omar Infante would be the first choice in center.  However, Clevlen might be a better choice.  His Zips indicate he would be an adequate offensive player.

Infield
The right side of the infield is below average with Casey and Polcano.  Casey is the nominal starter in April and Tiger fans hope that won’t be the case in May or there won’t be an October for the team.  Polano was hurt in 2006, but Zips don’t look optimistic.  The left side is much stronger.  No, Guillen is not the best shortstop in the AL, but he has put up an OPS over 100 for 5 straight years and is the club’s most valuable starter.  In 2006, he led the team in VORP at 66.3, more than double the #2 guy Maglio Ordonez at 27.  (Verlander led the pitchers in VORP at 47.5).  He was healthy last year (he seems to be healthy every other year).  If he’s 100% and in the lineup, he will remain a great addition.  Inge had a good year in 2006 adding a good deal of power.  Much like Craig Monroe he significantly reduced his platoon splits and produced against both lefties and righties. 

Finally, according to John Dewan’s great article in the 2007 Hardball Times, the Tigers had the best defense infield in the AL.  They were strongest on the corners.

Infield Subs
If they lost Casey, the Tigers have good alternatives in Shelton (who starts the year in AAA) or Thames, both of whom are better players than Casey.  If they lost Polanco, Infante could step in and wouldn’t be a significant drop off from Polcano.  While his walk rate is abysmal, his defense is good.  If the Tigers lost Carlos Guillen, Infante or Ramon Santiago (AAA) would step in.  This could be a huge drop off for the Tiger.  If the Tigers lost Inge, again it would be Infante or Santiago.  I would like to see Ryan Rayburn get a shot.  While Nefi Perez made the club, how long can that last?

Catcher
Behind the dish, Rodriguez improved from his sub-par year.  He is getting up there in years, and while his defense is still reputed to be solid, he will never be the same hitter. This puts the Tigers at a competitive disadvantage in a division with Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer.  On the upside, the A’s made it to the playoffs with Jason Kendall.  Leyland plans on batting IRod leadoff against LHP. 

On the Hill
Starters
The Tigers will return their starting five from last year: Bonderman, Rogers, Verlander, Robertson and Maroth.  This is as good a rotation as any and has as many concerns as any.  Is Verlander the next Jack Morris or the next Mark Fidrych?  Does Rogers have another good year in him?  Will Bonderman continue to improve and win a Cy Young Award?  Baseball Prospectus says he is as good a candidate as anyone. Will Maroth fully recover from arm problems?  The Tigers have depth and quality in the rotation.  They also have some pretty decent alternatives if someone does go down in: Zach Miner, Wil Ledezma, Jordan Tata or Andrew Miller.

Relief
Right Now the Pen looks like: Roman Colon, Jason Grilli, Todd Jones, Wil Ledezma, Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Chad Durbin and Joe Table.  This is a solid pen coming into the year.  Leyland has always found ways to assemble good arms in relief. 

If Everything Goes Plausibly Right

Rogers continues to hold off father time and finds a better spot to hide his pine tar.  Maroth comes back from his arm problems and the rest of the rotation holds its own.  Sheff hits like his old self, the team stays reasonably healthy and makes a deal for a thumper at first like Teixeira rather than another dud like Shea Hillenbrand.  The Tigers run away with it.

If Everything Goes Plausibly Wrong
The 200+ innings makes Verlander the true second coming of Mark Fidrych and he is never the same.  Rogers is done and Maroth can’t come back.  Ordonez remains a slightly above average producer despite his monster contracts.  The Tigers overpay for Guillen and Rodriguez to return which hamstrings their payroll and roster flexibility.  The Tigers start to lose, attendance, ratings and revenue drop.  Cuts are made to player development.  You know the rest.

Prospects:

Could see time in 2007 Age as of April 1, 2007 in ()
1.  Brent Clevlen, OF (23) – BA has him as the #3 Tiger prospect.  He had a poor year in AA, while still young, the Tigers must be coming to the realization that he won’t be a star.  He was called up to the Tigers in late July and went Shane Spencer on the league with over a .600 slg%.  His role in 2007 could be fourth OF.

2.  Jordan Tata SP (25) – BA has him as the #5 Tiger prospect.  Skipped AA and had a good year in AAA in 2006 (122 innings and 3.81 ERA), then got knocked around with the Tigers in 15 innings.  He will start the year in AAA, but could emerge in either the bullpen or a rotation fill-in.

3.  Ryan Raburn, 2B (25 – turns 26 April 17) – BA has him as the #27 Tiger prospect, down from #18 last year.  He is a personal favorite of mine.  His defense at second is supposed to be poor and won’t hit enough to play the OF.  However, he could make a good addition as a 6th infielder if paired with a strong defensive player (e.g., Infante or Santiago).

On the Horizon

1.  Jair Jurrhens, SP (21) – BA has him as the #4 Tiger prospect.  In nearly 400 minor league innings he has a 3.21 ERA.  His strikeout rate good and his control excellent.  He is not on the 40 man roster at this time, so it is less likely he will be called up.

2.  Andrew Miller SP (21) BA has him as the #10 overall prospect and the #2 Tiger prospect.  Pitched 5 innings in Lakeland before being called up to the Majors on August 30.  He will start the season in Lakeland.  According to reports he needs to getter better control and add a changeup.  BA states that he has a dominating fastball and slider and throws his two-seam fastball in the mid-80s.  What the heck does he need a changeup for?

3.  Cameron Maybin OF (19 – turns 20 April 4) – BA has him as the #6 overall prospect and the #1 Tiger prospect. Hit .304 in the Mid-West League.  He should go to either high A Lakeland or Double-A Erie.  As with most Tiger prospects, strikeouts are an issue with 116 in 435 plate appearances.

Trade Bait
A mid-season push to aquire help at first, or in the bullpen could come by dealing – Clevlen, Thames, Maybin could be dealt in a package for a SP, Jar Jurrjens,

Some Numbers

Since 2001, the Tigers have been generally worse in the second half, playing .465 ball from game one through July 31, then .365 ball the rest of the way.  September/October has been their worst “month” in four of the last six years.  For the third straight year and fourth time in five, the Tigers posted their worst record from September 1 on.  In the past six years, Sept/Oct has been the Tigers worst month followed closely by August.  In 2005 it was blamed on the Alan Trammel’s loss of the clubhouse.  In 2006 the poor August was due primarily to a collapse in their pitching witch led to an increase in both earned and unearned runs

A Word About the Yankees
The day after the Tigers beat the Yankees in four, I walked through NY’s Central Park wearing my Tigers cap.  Although it was a big upset for the Tigers, Manhattanites to their credit supported their team wearing Yankee shirts and caps with an interlocking NY.  I was amazed that despite the loss, the fans still showed support of their team.

New Yorkers rarely acknowledge each other on the street, however I didn’t fully understand the depth of their baseball passion until a couple guys in Yankee sweatshirts yelled over to me, “Hey, _____ – Tigers suck.”