Looking Forward to 2007 - Kansas City Royals

The Royals lost 100 games for the third year in a row, and the recap of last season is one long list of embarrassments.

Pitching/Defense

I’ll stop there before I read some Royals fan jumped off the George Brett bridge in front of an oncoming tractor trailer and wondering if this article was the final straw.

Since Dayton Moore became General Manager last summer he has been rebuilding the club. Last year, he renovated the pitching staff. This summer it looks to be the position players. By the start of next season I expect to see a new player at second, short, left or center and DH. Since the all-star break last year Moore has replaced the starters at first, third and right field.

The Royals have decided that the Alex Gordon era begins now, shifting team MVP Mark Teahen to right field. The only other possible everyday player acquired over the winter is catcher Jason LaRue.

There were significant changes on the pitching staff, highlighted by their big free agent signing of Gil Meche. With what figures to be a weaker defense behind them than last season, it appears the Royals will be hard pressed to improve their pitching statistics significantly.

Catcher – John Buck, Jason LaRue

It is not yet clear which of these two will get the majority of the playing time.

Buck, age 26, showed a hint of power at the end of the 2004 season but he has never built on that. He did not finish the season as well, batting just .235 with four homers in the second half, not exactly the best way to showcase your skills to a new general manager.

LaRue, 33, was acquired from the Reds last November for a player to be named later. He was projected to be Cincinnati’s starting catcher last spring but tore cartilage in his knee near the end of spring training. When Dave Ross started hitting homers while LaRue struggled to keep his average above .200, LaRue became the third catcher. LaRue had solid seasons at the plate in 2004 and 2005 while sharing time with switch-hitting catcher Javier Valentin, but both Buck and LaRue are right handed batters.

Paul Phillips is not on the 40-man roster and will probably return to Omaha, where he must be nearing the team record for game caught. Justin Huber is no longer a catcher, and the Royals do not appear to have any true catching prospects in their system.

First Base and DH – Ryan Shealy, Mike Sweeney, and Ross Gload

Shealy came over from Colorado at the trade deadline last season for Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista. He immediately took over the first base job because Doug Mientkiewicz’s season had ended the week before with back surgery.

Shealy has good power and will likely join Mike Sweeney as the only players to hit more than 20 homers in a season with the Royals since Carlos Beltran left. He is okay in the field, and the primary concern is his strikeout rate. He struck out in 24% of his plate appearance in Kansas City.

Sweeney continues to battle his back injuries, and in 2006 he was for the first time in seven years was not very good with the stick. He had just 252 plate appearances in 2006, he hasn’t played in more than 126 games in a season since 2001. The Royals are resting him more than ever in the spring, holding him out of both games and batting practice. While Sweeney tried a new conditioning program in the winter to try and strengthen his back, but he still has the same violent swing and it seems unlikely that at 33 his back will hold up all season.

Gload was acquired from the White Sox over the winter for Andy Sisco. He is the only left-handed batter in this group and figures to play quite a bit to help Sweeney rest his back. Buddy Bell has indicated Gload will also play in the outfield.

The Royals have two good prospects in this category of players. Huber was jerked around by Bell when he was called up last summer, sitting him on the bench instead of playing him. Huber did not play as well at Omaha in 2006 as he had in his other minor league stops. He is considered a below average first baseman and does not have enough speed to play a corner outfield spot. With Shealy and Billy Butler in the system, it appears Huber’s best shot at a career is with another organization.

Butler is a hitter and the Royals have ticketed him for Omaha this summer. He turns 21 in April, and it appears he could hit .280 in the majors right now, and over .300 consistently in the future. His homerun power is still in question, it is not clear if he will be at the 15 to 20 homer level, or the 20 to 30 level. So far it appears he will not be able to handle outfield or first base defensively in the majors. Maybe in 2008 we start finding out what Edgar Martinez career would have looked like if they would have just stuck him at DH when he was 22.

Second Base – Mark Grudzielanek, Esteban German

Grudz picked up his first Gold Glove last year and turned in a so-so season at the plate. He turns 37 this summer, and on March 5 had his knee scoped and will likely not return until shortly after opening day. He lead the American League by turning 107 double plays last season, but having runners on base constantly does make that a little easier.

Esteban German had a fantastic season at the plate batting .326 with a .422 OBA. Unfortunately, his defense was so poor that he could not stay on the field, even after Teahen’s season came to an early end. He played just one game at shortstop even though Berroa stunk both offensively and defensively.

German’s getting hit in the face with a fly ball in centerfield will become one of the lasting memories of the Royals during this era.

I think German will be solid with the bat again this season, but more likely to wind up with anaverage in the .290 to .300 range. The Royals have not declared German as the fill in for Grudz while he rehabs and Andres Blanco has been mentioned as the possible substitute.

Third Base – Alex Gordon

John Sickels wrote “Alex Gordon is the best overall hitting prospect in baseball….His MLE is .275/.355/.500, terrific for a 22-year old.”

That about sums it up. That MLE is about what Teahen posted last year as the Royals team MVP. I don’t think Royals fans are being overly optimistic when they think that Gordon may already be the best hitter on the team. He is expected to hit sixth or seventh in the order at the beginning of the season.

His defense is expected to be average, though Royals announcer Ryan Lefevbre has pegged Teahen’s glove as ahead of Gordon’s right now. Gordon has missed a few days in spring training with a sore shoulder, but apparently it is healing normally.

Shortstop – Angel Berroa, Andres Blanco and Angel Sanchez

Berroa’s offensive production went from Adam Everett to Dal Maxvil last season. If his glove was in the class of either of those two players his hitting might be acceptable, but he is average at best. He leads the majors in errors over the past three seasons. He was –39 Runs Created Above Position in 2006, tied with Pedro Feliz for worst in MLB.

There is little doubt he will open the season as the Royals everyday shortstop. This is the final season of the contract he signed after his promising start in Kansas City. Since signing the contract he has regressed every season his OPS+ declining annually from 96 to 83 to 81 to last season’s 48. He has compounded that with a decrease in range in every season as a regular.

I do not think he will return to Kansas City next year. In fact, I doubt he will be in the majors next year, but he should bounce back with the bat a little this year. Don’t count on him for a.260 average or to have a .300 OBA.

Andres Blanco and Angel Sanchez will both be 23 this season. Blanco is actually younger than Sanchez but he has been around forever. Neither one has shown any indication that he can hit at this point, and while Blanco at one time was considered a defensive marvel, he was not quite as brilliant last season. Sanchez will probably be sent to Omaha and Blanco will be the Royals utility man, possibly drawing the opening day start at second base.

Leftfield – Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders

Brown’s fielding was greatly improved last season, from historically awful to just below average. He was the Royals second most productive batter last season among the fulltime players. He will be hitting in the middle of the order again this season, though if Sanders makes the roster he may lose some playing time. Both of them are right-handed so there is no obvious platoon arrangement.

Sanders continued his even/odd pattern of productive years with the bat, his OPS+ was only 81 last season. He played in just 88 games last season, which was more than he played in 2005, but still disappointing to most Royals fans. At 39 years old this year it seems unlikely that Sanders will have any better luck staying healthy in 2007. The Royals would like to move him if they can find a trading partner.

Centerfield – David DeJesus, Joey Gathright

DeJesus started just 58 games in center last year after being injured early in the year and then moved to left field when the new general manager decided he might not have the range for centerfield. Gathright’s poor hitting moved DeJesus back to center to finish the season. DeJesus is an average fielder in center. He seems to have a good chance to improve slightly at the plate as he enters his age 27 season. DeJesus has battled injuries each of the last two seasons, and before 2004, his minor league record was also littered with injuries.

Gathright was given a long look in centerfield last season, making 62 starts. He may be the fastest man in MLB, but he does not get great utility out of that speed. He does not break well on fly balls, so despite his speed he is only an average fielder. He was only successful on 22 of 31 steal attempts. The Royals do not have a real backup centerfielder on their projected opening day roster if they send Gathright to Omaha. He does have options, so the team can send him down without losing him.

Rightfield – Mark Teahen, Shane Costa

After a trip back to the minors for a month last May, Teahen came back a new man and posted a 318/392/582 line after the All-Star break last year. The two big questions for Teahen are will he be able to hold onto his post-All Star numbers and how will he do in rightfield. I think he will be able to post similar number this season as last season, with a line like 290/370/530. He is only 25 this year and has steadily improved his performance. He is athletic and has good baseball instincts so he should okay, if not good in rightfield. The team seems pleased with his play so far in Arizona defensively.

The Royals have two good prospects in their chain in the outfield, Chris Lubanski and Mitch Maier. Both are expected to open the season at Omaha. Maier, 25, is a converted catcher who is a surprisingly good defensive outfielder, but he may not have enough power to start at one of the corner slots. Lubanski, 22, was the Royals 1st round draft choice in 2003. His strike zone judgment took a step forward last year, reducing his strikeouts while nearly doubling his walk rate. Unless his defense improves he does not appear to be a major league centerfielder.

Starting Pitching It is going to be difficult for any Royal pitcher to succeed because his defensive support is sub-par. If Grudzielanek’s knee injury slows him or if German is the opening day second baseman, you could argue that the Royals will be below average at every defensive position, at least until Gordon and Teahen adapt to their new roles.

My friend Bill Carle, head of the SABR Biographical committee and Royals fan, does not agree with me completely on this point. When I emailed him about this Bill replied, “I don't think our infield defense will be that bad. We have a Gold Glover at second. Shealy is adequate. From what I hear, Gordon is a good defensive player. And Berroa has plenty of range and talent. If he just concentrates, he'll be ok. The outfield is another story. DeJesus will need a bicycle with Brown on one side and Teahen on the other. We've had this situation before. We had poor Brian McRae flanked by Kevin McReynolds and Danny Tartabull. And in 1972, we had Amos Otis flanked by Lou Piniella and Richie Scheinblum. This might not be quite that bad, except that I don't think DeJesus has the speed of either B-Mac or Otis.”

The top three in the rotation are Gil Meche, Luke Hudson and Odalis Perez. This time last year it was Mark Redman, Scott Elarton and Joe Mays. I think it is fair to say the Royals have upgraded in those spots, but Redman actually had been more productive than Meche in the three years prior to each joining the Royals. Redman didn’t throw 97 MPH though.

Meche will face the new pressure of being regarded as the staff ace. He pitched much better in Seattle than on the road last season, how he will adapt to Kaufman Stadium could be a key to his season. His biggest obstacle may be balancing his performance against the expectations his large contract has created for him in Kansas City.

The last two spots in the rotation appear to be Jorge De La Rosa and Brian Bannister, with Zach Grienke around as a wild card. Unless De La Rosa has significantly improved his control, I cannot see him being a successful starter. He struck out 36 while walking 32 in 48 IP with the Royals. I do not understand handing him a starting role this early in camp, and I do not understand why you would not bring back Redman if De La Rosa your 4th starter.

The Royals are still handling Grienke with kid’s gloves, which is understandable and probably wise. There is no clear indication what his role will be in April. His arm appears fine, it is his mental condition that will determine his fate.

Elarton is still mending from shoulder surgery, but is expected to be ready to pitch again by June. He allowed 26 homers in just 114 IP last season and walked more than he struck out, 49/52 K/BB. He is a favorite of Buddy Bell though, so if he is healthy he will get an opportunity.

Luke Hochevar, the first overall pick in the amateur draft last year, is the Royals top-pitching prospect. He is expected to begin the season in AA, but could be in the majors by the end of the season. His fastball and slider are considered major league ready but his curve and change still need refinement.

Tyler Lumsden, a 6-4” lefty they acquired from the White Sox is the organization’s second best pitching prospect. He will also likely begin the season in AA, but is not expected to be on as rapid a time-table as Hochevar.

Bullpen

Last year with Mike MacDougald in the designated closer role, the bullpen fell apart when he was injured forcing everyone up one role. The team could face a similar problem this season if Octavio Dotel’s crossfire delivery shreds his elbow again. Dotel pitched just 25.1 innings in the past two seasons, and had an ERA of 10.80 in 14 games with the Yankees last year.

David Riske was also added in the off-season and will be the primary setup man and next in line for potential saves.

In addition to Riske, Todd Wellemeyer and Joakim Soria appear to be the front-runners in the bullpen battle. Both are right-handed, and both are viewed as having the potential to make the occasional spot start.

Soria is a Rule V pickup, out of the Padres system. The right-hander was selected after an excellent showing in the Mexican Winter League, and has a low 90’s fastball and an excellent change.

Jimmy Gobble – Himmy Hobble in Tony Pena-ease – was pretty good out of the pen last season, but it appears John Bale, who was repatriated from Japan, was considered the club’s top lefty when spring camp began. Bale however has had arm trouble in Arizona. Gobble struck out 57 in 58 IP in relief last season, with a 4.68 ERA.

The depth in the pen seems to be much better, and there seems to be little chance that young kids will be force fed key roles early in the season. The Royals do have some talented younger relievers around including Ryan Braun and Joel Peralta, but they do not seem destined for key roles early in the season.

Peralta and Hudson are the only members of the current staff who were with the major league club when Dayton Moore arrived.

Overall Outlook

The over/under for the Royals has been set at 67.5 by some gambling sites. They won 62 games last season, missing their Pythagorean projected wins by one. The team would have to improve about 75 runs over 2006 to win more than 67 games.

Can they do that? I would expect the offense to improve if Alex Gordon’s shoulder is healthy, and if Mike Sweeney is more effective or healthier than last season. Pitching wise, they could make significant gains if they can just avoid some of the disastrous performances turned in last season. If the 335 innings of 6.21 ERA thrown by the trio of Redman, Runelvys and Sisco could be replaced by 335 innings of 5.21 ERA the team would gain nearly 40 runs. That doesn’t even consider the 140 IP at 6.72 ERA turned in by Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Mays and Brandon Duckworth.

I think the Royals will be better at the end of 2007 than they are at the beginning, but I do not think enough things will go right for them to win 68 games. However I am very optimistic that they will not lose 100 games this year.

66 Wins and last in the American League Central is my prediction.

(Thanks to Bill Carle and John Sickels for their insight on the team and their prospects.)