Looking Forward to 2007 - New York Mets

The 2007 New York Mets Preview

The 2006 New York Mets were everything, well, almost everything, a fan wants out of a season. And after not making the playoffs for six seasons, it was welcome. Moreover, the Mets ended the Braves run of division titles, beating them soundly –not squeaking out by one or two games, but leaving the Braves at eighteen games behind and below 0.500. The Phillies were the closest challengers, but weren’t really challengers at all after about mid-August. Once September rolled around, the only question was whether or not the Mets could clinch the division earlier than the 1986 team.

Even with the best record in baseball, the Mets’ season wasn’t a product of outrageous performances. Carlos Beltran rebounded from his worst season ever to have his best season ever, but his performance was in line with his projected growth curve. The starting pitching was, um, not good. Tom Glavine was a bright spot and John Maine pitched well, but Pedro Martinez, after a strong start, really went downhill fast. The bullpen was superb, but Billy Wagner had one of his “down” seasons despite being very good. It’s hard to tell if pitching coach Rick Peterson can assemble a bullpen in Leo Mazzone fashion, but he’ll get the chance to try again in 2007.

The Mets’ lost in the NLCS and will be the odds-on favorite to win the NL East and represent the league in the World Series.

Catcher – Paul LoDuca

Paul LoDuca’s 2006 is often seen as a spike in performance that couldn’t be repeated. However, LoDuca’s season was not far from his career marks. It was batting average heavy, and a step up from the two prior seasons, but his power was only present in his BA. He will drop some in average, and that will drag the rest of his performance down. His walk rate and isolated power are historically consistent, so he’ll only manage a .280/.330/.400 mark. Will that drop-off be more than the Mets can afford? In the two-hole possibly, but with the addition of Moises Alou and Shawn Green, LoDuca should be relegated to the bottom of the batting order, mitigating his lessened performance. From the catcher position, that will result in a net loss of about ten runs. If he stays in the top of the order, his extra plate appearances will cost the Mets another five runs.

First Base – Carlos Delgado

Carlos Delgado struggled a ton at the beginning of the season. Some Met fans were calling for Mike Jacobs to return. He faced hitting into a defensive shift more than ever, and it clearly affected his performance early on. He began hitting with authority to the other gaps, and his line finished near his career marks, but a bit low for batting average. Part of that was Shea, and he was only adjusting to the hitting background there at the end of the season. That should mean a better start to the 2007 campaign, and hopefully a better overall season. Delgado has been up and down the last four seasons – up in odd years and down in even years. Given his batting average struggles, he’ll likely bounce back somewhat – his walk rate and isolated power were still excellent in 2006. He should manage his career average, posting a line of .280/.390/.560. That line will only improve on his 2006 performance by about ten to fifteen runs, and it will rely on his batting average returning to his norm.

Second Base – Jose Valentin

How old is this guy? He had a very solid season for the Mets considering he wasn’t expected to start for the Mets in 2006. Valentin has always been an excellent glove man, and he didn’t disappoint in 2006. In just over half of a season, he saved ten runs more than average over a full season. He turns the double play flawlessly, and he hits a good deal – batting left-handed. Therein lies the problem. Valentin either needs a platoon mate, or he needs to bat left-handed against left-handed pitchers. I personally think a platoon mate would be the best option. His bat was still solid, but problematic against lefties. Having him field the whole season should offset the likely decrease in his hitting performance.

Third Base – David Wright

David Wright is just going to be a great baseball player. He was 23 in 2006, and his performance was excellent. He hasn’t started turning doubles into home runs yet, but he didn’t hit the wall in 2006, and should improve on his 2006 production. Right now the worst case scenario is that he replicates 2006, and at his age, a step forward could mean significant improvement. Wright is so good at the plate; he may not develop much more, which, while disappointing, 10-15 years of his age 22 and 23 seasons would be HOF material. Historically, players do improve some, and Wright should be even better this season. Right now his isolated power is “stuck” at .220. He should see an increase of twenty to thirty for the next couple of season, which would add quite a few runs to his performance.

Wright still has quite a bit of work to do on his defense. Some of his defensive failings are poor positioning, but his glove work simply isn’t solid, so even with better location, he’ll never be a Gold Glove performer. That means a plus for the Mets on offense from third base – about tens runs each season he increases.

Shortstop - Jose Reyes

Having Reyes and Wright, and they are both just 23, is bordering on unfair. Reyes has increased his walk rate significantly over the last three years, in no small part due to Rickey Henderson’s guidance. He has also increased his stolen base output. Reyes’ strike zone control has been viewed with skepticism by many, but he’s made a significant change in his approach at the plate. The walks are real, and here to stay. After all, he still walks at a below average rate. Is the batting average real? Reyes his .300 in 2006 and that is unclear. I don’t believe there is enough data to make a good estimation. Reyes also exhibited a big jump in power in 2006, a lot of it in home runs. Should that number decrease, I would expect his doubles and stolen bases to increase. It isn’t likely to offset the drop-off in home runs, but Reyes will still be valuable. However, he is just 23, and both improvements could be real. He could hit .300 with 20 home runs and 30 doubles and 20 triples and 60 stolen bases. That would surprise me, but stranger things have happened. Reyes will likely regress, setting the Mets offense back by about five to ten runs.

Left field – Moises Alou

The Cliff Floyd Era came to an end after 2006, and he was replaced with a different outfielder who swings a solid bat, but is prone to injury in Moises Alou. Alou should match Floyd’s output, and more importantly, he decreases the Mets’ susceptibility to left-handed starters significantly. Floyd, although not a good-looking fielder, was a good fielder. Alou has not been. The difference between the two could be significant – as much as ten runs. That’s a decline that Alou would need to make up for with his bat, and I am not sure he can.

Center Field – Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran had a fantastic postseason in 2004, and the Mets rewarded him handsomely. Then he stunk to high heaven in 2005. The Mets got the “MVP Beltran” in 2006, as he improved upon his 2003-2004 performances. Beltran had always been ticketed for stardom as a total package – speed, offense and defense. Beltran’s season was outstanding, and he should have won he MVP – his defense certainly made up for the offensive difference, and he had the luxury of an early clinched division – which probably cost him the MVP. Can he repeat that effort in 2007? I doubt it. Yes, defensively and he’ll probably hit a ton, but his 41 HRs will be tougher to duplicate. Beltran also didn’t seem to like hitting at Shea. Beltran improved his plate discipline, and that resulted in a greater walk rate and a higher ISO. Those improvements could be real. If Beltran has tightened up his plate discipline, an experienced (old) player’s skill, his 2007 could match his 2006. As his BA didn’t increase, those increases are less luck-driven and Beltran could post MVP numbers again. He may not create quite as many runs, but he’ll be close.

Right field – Shawn Green

I ripped the acquisition of Shawn Green last fall. He’s old, slow and not going to get any better than a possible line of .280/.350/.470. He’s very likely, due to his age, to hit much worse, .250/.320/.380. That’s pretty awful for ten million dollars. What’s worse, the Mets offense was potent enough to absorb some platoon of Endy Chavez and Lastings Milledge, rendering the addition of Green moot. Okay, Green, if he produces like he did from 2003-2005, then he’s tolerable, but I don’t see any reason to be optimistic that a 34-yo will rediscover his 2001-02 stroke. Milledge needs some work, but I would bet Green’s performance could be replaced for a fifth of the cost by a platoon of role players. Nonetheless, the Mets will get a repeat of the 2006 right field offensive performance. Unfortunately, they will see a loss in runs saved – about five runs worth. The more Green plays, the worse it will get.

Bench – Lastings Milledge, Ramon Castro, Endy Chavez, David Newhan

The bench is decently constructed. Newhan can hit a little bit. Endy is a phenomenal defensive outfielder who may hit if he remembers to bunt a lot. Castro is a more than adequate backup catcher, and strong defensively. Milledge is supposed to become a star, and he is young and will get good on the job training. The more playing time he gets at the major league level, the better he will be. Sooner or later, Alou will get hurt, or Green will stink badly enough and Milledge will get his playing time. At a minimum, Willie Randolph should platoon Milledge against LHPs.

Bench production, outside of a pure platoon, should rarely make a significant difference in a team’s run output – at least in a predictable fashion. Teams that win often get a spike season from bench player or two, like Endy Chavez for the 2006 Mets, but that isn’t a reliable source of offense.

Starting Pitchers – Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez

Tom Glavine finished 2006 with 290 wins. There were overtures of Glavine returning to the Braves to chase down 300, but after the Mets destroyed the Braves and the Braves staggered home under .500, Glavine certainly thought better of going back to Atlanta and having t face not making it to 300 this season. With the Mets, Glavine could reach 300 wins before the end of May, and he has a good shot of getting there before the All-Star Break. Glavine will almost certainly repeat his 2006, and may well improve on it. After Glavine, though, the starting pitching is looking for trouble.

Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez is old. He’s also tricky. Can the Mets get 200 IP out of him? Doubtful. Fortunately, the Mets didn’t have anyone pitching that well in 2006, so Duque has plenty of leeway to still be acceptable. Many naysayers claim expecting 160 IP from Duque is too much, but he threw that many in 2006, and can reasonably be expected to do so again in a stable rotation where he can get plenty of run support. Is it guaranteed? No. Is it far-fetched? No. He should be able to pitch his 160 IP with an ERA around 4.25. If Rick Peterson wants to make a believer out of me, he has his chance. Getting El Duque to throw 180 IP with an ERA of less than 4 would do it.

John Maine came up and pitched very well, posting an ERA+ of 120. Maine is a good pitcher, but his HR rate was a bit high and he had a low hit rate. He also is going to be expected to pitch a lot more big league innings -–double what he threw in 2006. I doubt that is going to be a good thing. However, he doesn’t have to be as good as 2006 to be very valuable. He needs to keep his ERA around league average (at least) and throw another 90-100 innings. That would eat up some of the slop that Dave Williams and Brian Bannister tried to fill last season, as well as pick up some of Pedro’s innings.

Oliver Perez was incredible in 2004. Then he lost it. He has very good stuff but can’t locate the strike zone. He had a great start in the NLCS, and he’s going to be given a lot of chances due to his age – he’s only 25 - and stuff. Oh, and he throws left-handed. He’s another project that can make Rick Peterson not overrated. He’s unlikely to be as bad as, well, he was in 2006. Guys that pitch that badly aren’t in the majors very long. Perez himself went from Opening Day starter to trade-bait. Hopefully, he can make at least 25 starts, and replace the Alay Soler-Victor “10-minutes” Zambrano-Jose Lima-Geremi Gonzalez start. He can’t be any worse than that collection.

Fifth slot – Dave Williams, Pedro Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Sele

The fifth starter will miss most of April, so the Mets can get by without having a game where someone gives up 6 runs before the fifth inning. Pedro may be back in August – but maybe not. If he does come back in August, or even just before September, that would give the Met a boost, assuming he pitches like the Pedro of last April, and the not the Pedro of the rest of the season.

Bullpen – Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano, Ambiorix Burgos

Wagner actually had a down season in 2006 – for him. He allowed 14 more hits in the same number of batters. It seemed like he allowed a lot of home runs, but he actually allowed them at a pretty typical rate for him. He also had a massive meltdown against the Yankees that stood out, and then the big home run to So F. Taguchi in the NLCS. Nonetheless, Wagner is going to allow a home run for every ten innings (or so) that he pitches and if he has a great year, he’ll allow five fewer runs and if he has a bad year he’ll allow five more. He is a very good closer.

Aaron Heilman wants to start. Yes, I know. However, fair or not, he’s not pitched well overall as a starter, at least not as well as he has out of the bullpen. Heilman will be more experienced at his role and will improve. If he does well enough, perhaps he will get a start. Perhaps not. I expect Heilman to improve, and should shave 5-10 runs off his ERA.

Pedro Feliciano was outstanding last year. He may not match it, but as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he’ll not be much worse. It was only 60 innings. Joe Smith is taking over the role of Chad Bradford this season. Bradford also had a great 2006, which Smith will struggle to match, but again, the key portion will be keeping inherited runners from scoring.

The bullpen was great in 2006, and they will probably be very, very good in 2007 – the key components, Feliciano, Heilman and Wagner, and a suitable replacement for Bradford are all in place. The Mets were fortunate with Darren Oliver, Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota who they won’t have for 2007 (mostly), and unlucky with Heath Bell and Jorge Julio who they won’t have for 2007 (luckily).

Total Outlook

The Mets are going to be almost exactly the same. They should go about 92-70, but if Reyes continues to improve, and David Wright takes his step forward, and Shawn Green rebounds to his pre-2006 performance, and Pedro comes back in August, the Mets could put 100 wins on the board.