Looking Forward to 2007 - San Diego Padres

2006 Recap

The Padres won the NL West for the second straight season with an 88-74 record. And for the second straight season they were bumped from the playoffs by St. Louis, which went on to win the World Series. Individually, Chris Young, Clay Hensley, Trevor Hoffman, Cla Meredith, Adrian Gonzalez, and Mike Cameron enjoyed excellent seasons. Hoffman made history on September 24 against the Pirates with his 479th career save, while Cameron earned a Gold Glove Award for his play in center field.

After the season a few tweaks were made to the roster with an eye toward 2007. Unlike the previous winter, when the Padres underwent a major overhaul, this past off-season's changes -- with a notable exception at manager -- were more a matter of fine-tuning.

Off-season Moves

Incoming

RHP Heath Bell, RHP Andrew Brown, RHP Kevin Cameron, RHP Justin Germano, LHP Justin Hampson, RHP Greg Maddux, LHP Royce Ring, INF Marcus Giles, INF Kevin Kouzmanoff, OF Jose Cruz Jr., MGR Bud Black.

Outgoing

RHP Jon Adkins, LHP Alan Embree, RHP Chan Ho Park, RHP Brian Sweeney, RHP Woody Williams, RHP Scott Williamson, C Mike Piazza, INF Josh Barfield, INF Mark Bellhorn, INF Ryan Klesko, INF Todd Walker, OF Ben Johnson, OF Dave Roberts, MGR Bruce Bochy.

Lineup

1. Marcus Giles, 2B. The Padres had been mentioned as a possible suitor for Giles going back at least as far as 2002. Last season, his name surfaced in rumors surrounding reliever Scott Linebrink. Eventually, and somewhat surprisingly, the Braves non-tendered Giles, making him a free agent. Now back home in San Diego and batting ahead of older brother Brian, his main priority is staying healthy. A return to his 2003 form seems unlikely, but even if Giles can move toward his career norms -- not an unreasonable expectation at age 29 -- he should provide the Padres with a nice mix of on-base skills and gaps power. On balance, Giles probably is no worse an option than last year's starter, Josh Barfield.
2. Brian Giles, RF. The older Giles suffered through a miserable 2006 season, failing to crack a .400 SLG for the first time in his career. Solid defense and a decent OBP kept his value from evaporating entirely, but this is not the same guy that abused National League pitchers during his stay in Pittsburgh. At age 36, we shouldn't expect anywhere near a full rebound. A return to somewhere between his '04 and '05 levels, however, isn't out of the question. If Giles can do that, then he'll be a useful guy to have setting the proverbial table.
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. Part of the package that sent Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka to the Rangers, hometown product Gonzalez blossomed in his first shot at a full-time gig in the big leagues. When incumbent first baseman Ryan Klesko injured his shoulder, Gonzalez stepped in and provided the Padres with a strong effort at the plate and in the field. Gonzalez has drawn comparisons to former big-leaguer Mark Grace in the past, so the high batting average came as no surprise, nor did the stellar defense. Gonzalez' power numbers may have taken some observers by surprise, but with his ability to drive the ball hard to all fields, those most likely are the result of real growth and not a fluke. Defensively, he possesses excellent footwork and presence around the bag. Unlike some first basemen in the Padres' recent past, Gonzalez positions himself well and understands where he should be at all times. He also is adept at scooping low throws and should be an immediate threat to win a Gold Glove or three.
4. Josh Bard, C. The Padres probably owe Boston right-hander Tim Wakefield a playoff cut. If Wakefield's knuckleball hadn't eluded Bard with such regularity in April 2006, the Red Sox never would have sacrificed the switch-hitting catcher, reliever Cla Meredith, and cash for a steaming pile of Doug Mirabelli. Once in San Diego, Bard posted silly numbers as Mike Piazza's understudy. Bard won't repeat that performance in expanded duties this year, but he should do a pretty nice Johnny Estrada impression (with a chance of pushing into Michael Barrett/Ramon Hernandez territory), which isn't too shabby.
5. Mike Cameron, CF. After suffering an oblique strain toward the end of spring training, Cameron spent the first two months of 2006 looking for hiw power stroke. When he finally found it, he did so in grand fashion and became one of the Padres' most consistent hitters. In the end, Cameron put up his usual numbers -- lowish batting average; plenty of walks, strikeouts, and extra base hits; a fair amount of stolen bases at a decent clip. He also gave the Padres their first legitimate center fielder since the departure of Mark Kotsay, winning a Gold Glove in the process. At age 34, Cameron hasn't yet experienced any appreciable decline. To the contrary, last year he finished with a career-best .482 SLG despite his slow start and the fact that he plays half his games in a pitchers' park.
6. Khalil Greene, SS. One of these years, Greene is going to stay healthy for an entire season. When he does, the Padres and their fans can only hope that all the previous injuries haven't eroded his skills. At age 27, Greene could be on the verge of a breakout, or he could be one of those guys that always seem to be on the verge of a breakout (hello, Adam Eaton). Greene has knocked exactly 15 homers in each of the past three seasons. He still looks like a good candidate to bust out with a few Rich Aurilia/Jose Valentin type campaigns; it'd be nice to see him do it sooner rather than later.
7. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B. Acquired from the Indians over the winter for popular second baseman Josh Barfield, Kouzmanoff has put up sick numbers at every level. Perhaps most famous for pounding a grand slam on the first big-league pitch he ever saw, the man nicknamed the "Crushin' Russian" (despite his Macedonian ancestry) takes over at a position that has been a black hole for the Padres since Phil Nevin moved across the diamond to accommodate Sean Burroughs back in 2002. Kouzmanoff's defense has been called into question, but the early returns this spring are encouraging. There's cause for enthusiasm with Kouzmanoff, although it should be tempered somewhat by the fact that he's already 25 years old. Think of guys like Mike Lowell and Todd Zeile -- not stars, but useful players, which is more than can be said of Burroughs, Joe Randa, Vinny Castilla, or Mark Bellhorn.
8. Terrmel Sledge, LF. The "other guy" in the trade that brought Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young to San Diego, Sledge steps into the left field spot vacated by Dave Roberts. After battling a severe hamstring injury over most of the past two years, Sledge apparently is now healthy. Although he doesn't posess the speed of Roberts, if Sledge can get back to his 2004 levels, he'll represent an overall offensive upgrade in left for the Padres. Defensively, he looked very tentative during his stay with the big club last season, but the same can be said of many guys running around on a bad hammy. Sledge could end up being a real nice surprise in 2007 and make the deal with Texas look even more lopsided than it already is.

Bench

Rob Bowen, who spent most of 2006 serving as Mike Piazza's pinch-runner/late-inning defensive replacement, assumes primary backup catcher duties. Left-handed hitting Pete LaForest will be ready at Triple-A Portland if needed.

Geoff Blum returns for his third season as the Padres' main reserve infielder. Blum is passable defensively at all four poositions and can cripple a hanging slider. He hasn't seen an OBP north of .300 since 2002 and his range isn't great, so you don't want to see him in the lineup more than once or twice a month, but he won't kill you if used in moderation. Unfortunately, if the previous two seasons are any indication, Blum most likely will see close to 300 plate appearances.

With Todd Walker's release, the only other backup infielder will be Russell Branyan. A Three True Outcomes poster child, Branyan can play either corner on the infield or in the outfield. Oscar Robles, Craig Stansberry, and the venerable Manny Alexander also could see action at some point.

In the outfield, Branyan and Jose Cruz Jr. are the reserves. Cruz can play all three outfield spots and provides a potent right-handed bat. He'll spell Sledge and Giles against tough left-handers and occasionally give Cameron a breather in center.

Another option, Paul McAnulty, will start the season at Portland. A left-handed hitter built like John Kruk or Matt Stairs, McAnulty probably could help an American League team right now as a DH. He plays a decent left field and also has some experience on the infield corners.

Rotation

1. Jake Peavy, RHP. After winning the National League ERA title in 2004 and following with a strikeout title in 2005, Peavy slipped last season. The good news is that his peripheral numbers remained strong, so he is a good candidate to rebound in 2007. The bad, or at least somewhat disconcerting, news is that Peavy had trouble putting batters away last year after getting ahead in the count. If he's going to maintain his place among the elite pitchers in baseball, Peavy really needs to become more efficient. Doing so will allow him to work deeper into games and provide even greater value for the Padres.
2. Chris Young, RHP. Acquired from the Rangers with Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge, Young proved that his 2005 rookie season had been no fluke. He finished sixth in the National League in ERA last year and twice carried no-hitters into the seventh inning (including once into the ninth). Young was the NL's toughest pitcher to hit, holding opponents to a .206 batting average. Unfortunately, he also was the least efficient pitcher in baseball for the second straight season. As a result, Young wore down late in games and averaged fewer than six innings per start in 2006. Like Peavy, if Young can resolve at-bats more quickly, he could take another step forward, which is a scary thought considering how good he already is.
3. Clay Hensley, RHP. Talk about flying under the radar. After serving as one of the Padres' prime setup relievers down the stretch in 2005, Hensley moved to the rotation last year and quietly finished 10th in the National League in ERA. He walked a few too many batters but did a nice job keeping the ball on the ground and getting guys out. Like the two twentysomethings ahead of him in the rotation, Hensley could stand to improve his command, which explains at least in part the signing of the next two guys.
4. Greg Maddux, RHP. If you've got young pitchers in your rotation that sometimes have trouble throwing quality strikes, there aren't many better guys to have them emulate than Maddux. Yes, he's 41 years old. No, he's not the dominant force we remember from the '90s. But in Maddux, the Padres get someone who will take his turn in the rotation and keep the game close for six innings. He can't be expected to lead the pack, nor is he being asked to do so. As he did for the Cubs and Dodgers in 2006, Maddux will provide good short-term value for the Padres. His presence in the clubhouse may or may not help the kids, but it certainly can't hurt.
5. David Wells, LHP. It's cliche to say that someone "knows how to pitch," but in the case of Wells, I can't think of a better way to articulate what he does. His stuff is far from overpowering, but what he lacks in that department, he makes up for in command and guile. Wells was hurt for much of 2006 but pitched reasonably well for the Padres in September. He's 44 years old and he recently was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. The Padres, however, aren't asking for much. If Wells can even make 20-25 starts this year and continue to lead by example, the club should be happy.

Bullpen

1. Trevor Hoffman, RHP. The face of the franchise since Tony Gwynn retired, Hoffman led the National League with 46 saves and broke Lee Smith's career mark in the club's last regular-season home game. Now just 18 saves shy of 500, the 39-year-old right-hander continues to excel with a change-up that batters can't hit even though they know it's coming. Hoffman won't light up the radar guns (hasn't for years) and he's good for no more than about 60 innings, but despite recent declines in strikeout rates, he shows no signs of slowing down.
2. Scott Linebrink, RHP. A waiver wire pickup by the Padres in May 2003, Linebrink spent the next two seasons quietly establishing himself as one of the most effective relievers in baseball. It is in this light that 2006 is viewed as a disappointment. Linebrink has good stuff and command, and he's durable. Many clubs have inquired about his availability as a potential closer, and the Padres would not hesitate to use him in that role themselves should something happen to Hoffman.
3. Cla Meredith, RHP. His name is pronounced "Clay" but everyone calls him "The Claw." A true sidearmer, Meredith gets tremendous sinking action on his pitches, which results in a ton of ground balls -- we're talking Derek Lowe/Brandon Webb territory. Meredith, who came to San Diego along with Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli, absolutely destroyed right-handed batters as a rookie, holding them to a .107/.130/.170 line in 116 plate appearances. It would be irresponsible to predict anything close to a repeat of his phenomenal 2006 campaign, but Meredith should remain one of the better setup men in the National League now and into the near future.
4. Heath Bell, RHP. Another local kid comes home to San Diego. Acquired from the Mets this past winter, Bell has posted strong numbers throughout his minor-league career. He's been difficult to hit and averaged well over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings in nearly 500 innings. So far, Bell's minor-league success hasn't translated to the big leagues. In parts of three seasons with the Mets, he's been very hittable and occasionally prone to sudden bouts of gopheritis acutis. With a new franchise and a defined role, Bell has a chance to be a useful big-league reliever.
5. Doug Brocail, RHP The 40-year-old Brocail missed most of last season due to heart problems. He hasn't been better than league average since 2004, and he hasn't had a really good season since 1999. Brocail is nothing special, but he's only being asked to fill the Jon Adkins/Scott Cassidy/Brian Sweeney low-leverage innings role. There are worse pitchers in baseball being paid more to do the same.
6. Andrew Brown/Kevin Cameron/Justin Germano/Mike Thompson, RHP; Justin Hampson, LHP. If Black makes good on his threat to carry seven relievers, two of these guys will make the club. The two leading candidates as of this writing appear to be Cameron and Thompson. Both Kevin Towers and Bud Black have been impressed with Rule V draftee Cameron, who draws praise for his abilities to get lefties out. Thompson, meanwhile, provided the Padres with several shots in the arm as a rookie in '06 and gives Black a guy who has experience as a starter if something should happen, say, to Wells.

Down on the Farm

The farm system still isn't where it needs to be -- not even close. The good news is that Grady Fuson and the Padres had a pretty nice draft in 2006. The better news is that, thanks to several free-agent defections, they have seven extra picks in this year's draft. There's a lot of work to be done, but at least the Padres have put themselves in position to start rebuilding.

Guys who could help the big club as early as this season include RHP Cesar Carrillo, who has battled elbow problems; LHP Royce Ring, another San Diegan who came over from the Mets; RHP Leo Rosales; RHP Tim Stauffer, a former first-rounder who seems to have stalled out at Triple-A; LHP Sean Thompson; RHP Jared Wells, who is more stuff than results; INF Luis Cruz; OF Jack Cust (not really a prospect); and OF Paul McAnulty.

Potential long-term solutions include 2B/3B Matt Antonelli, last year's first-round pick; 1B Kyle Blanks, nicknamed "Gigantor" due to his 6'6", 270 lb. frame; OF Kyler Burke; RHP Mike Ekstrom; 3B Chase Headley; OF Chad Huffman; C Nick Hundley; OF Cedric Hunter, who probably has the highest upside of any hitting prospect in the organization; and LHP Wade LeBlanc.

Management

The front office stays the same; nobody tried to lure Kevin Towers away this off-season. On the field, long-time manager Bruce Bochy cruised up I-5 to San Francisco, where he'll lead the Giants and presumably be very comfortable with an old team. Bud Black, former pitching coach for the Angels and one-time college teammate of Tony Gwynn at SDSU, takes over for the Padres despite having no previous managerial experience. Fellow Aztec Bobby Meacham replaces Tye Waller as first-base coach. It's difficult to speculate on Black's managerial style and how he'll do in a role that he's never before occupied, so I won't. Sorry, but I'm not just going to make stuff up.

Outlook

This team really isn't all that different from last year's version that won 88 games. It's a little younger and cheaper. The offense should be a bit stronger, as should the back-end of the rotation. Aside from a few minor tweaks here and there, the biggest question is how well Black will lead his troops into battle, and that is something we just cannot know until he actually does it. My best guess is that the Padres will split the difference between 2005 and 2006, and win 85 games. In an increasingly competitive NL West, that probably won't be enough for their third straight division title. One team will finish ahead of the Padres this year, and I'm guessing it'll be Arizona.

Acknowledgments

As always, I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to my readers at Ducksnorts. Without you guys, none of this happens. Any and all errors are mine.