Looking Forward to 2007 - San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants enter the fifteenth year of the Barry Bonds era. This year Bonds is expected to relieve Hank Aaron of the burden of all-time home run champion. The only way to top that would be to win the division and NL crown and the World Series.
The Giants were in it this season, and were in it despite Bonds’ struggles early. On July 22, the Giants were alone in first place, and Bonds had been walked a ton, posting a .257/.477/.514 mark. The rotation was remarkable stable, getting 144 starts from their top five starters. Only Colorado got more.
On July 23, the Giants went into a nosedive, losing 9 straight and 16 of their next 20.
What happened to the Giants that sent them into such a tailspin? I’m not pointing fingers, but:
July 21, 2006: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with Vinnie Chulk to the San Francisco Giants for Jeremy Accardo.
The Giants have made a few lineup changes for 2007, and hope to finish stronger in 2007.
Catcher – Bengie Molina, Eliezer Alfonzo
Molina and Alfonzo are pretty interchangeable with the bat, .280/.310/.450. Neither is going to be a big hitter, and hopefully in the 8-hole. Alfonzo caught most of the second half and Molina will be replacing Mike Matheny mostly, so the Giants will improve out of the catcher position. The Giants could gain nearly 15 runs by replacing Matheny – he was that bad.
First Base – Rich Aurilia
Aurilia his a pretty good clip when he was in Cincy last season, at least compared to what the Giants got out of first base in 2006. Between Lance Niekro, Mark Sweeney and Shea Hillenbrand, the Giants managed to get replacement level performance at first base. Aurilia doesn’t have to be great to really enhance the Giants team – if he manages his 2006, or his 2005, he’ll outpace the 2006 stooges by 20 runs.
Aurilia is also quite old, 35 this year, so he could drop off a cliff and merely match the Giants 2006 first base production.
Second Base – Ray Durham
Durham signed a great two-year contract, and has been excellent for the last three seasons. He’ll produce in a manner similar to 2006, although he’s likely to produce slightly less, as he is a year older. He’s a good player, and could repeat ’06, but I expect him to drop about 10 runs from his performance.
Shortstop – Omar Vizquel
Omar Vizquel won the Gold Glove and had a solid fielding season. He’’l continue that, and if he stays on the cliff, he’ll maintain his offense. He’s performed around league average for a shortstop offensively, and there’s no readily apparent reason for him to plummet at the plate.
Third Base – Pedro Feliz
Feliz is just about done. He had a nice couple of seasons a few years ago, but he is in decline offensively, and can well be expected to continue to decline in 2007. The Giants have options with Aurilia and an alternative at first base, but Feliz is going to hurt the Giants’ chances at any title. His glove was good in 2006, and if that was just a good year, Feliz’ overall performance will drop 10 runs, with a good chance at dropping 20 runs.
Left Field – Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds is one of the greatest hitters of all-time. A couple of weeks ago, I projected Bonds to break Aaron’s record on July 25. After watching him hit in Spring Training, I think I wasn’t aggressive enough. Bonds is hitting home runs, and is running well, with no sign of knee trouble. The MLB.com milestone projection may be a better guess. Bonds played pretty well after starting slowly, and his Aug-Sept numbers were awesome: .319/.437/.652. Bonds is going to hit better in 2007 than he did in 2006, and probably a good deal better. He’s going to produce 20 to 30 more runs with the bat, with an outside chance at 40 to 50 more runs. For a feel of where that ranks in his career, it’s 40 runs below his 2001-2004 peak performances.
Center Field – Dave Roberts
Roberts is living well off one stolen base in 2004. Since that stolen base, Roberts has had his two best seasons of his career – at the ages of 33 and 34. Whatever happened after the Boston stint, Roberts has played much better offensively, and been a good player. He had merely been average to that point in his career. Roberts also stole plenty of bases at a high success rate last year. Defensively, Roberts will play CF instead of the LF he played last year. He was quite good last season, and he should be solid in CF for the Giants.
Right Field – Randy Winn
Winn shifted over to right field for Steve Finley last season. His defense was good, but he has seen a strong decline in his offense. With the exception of Winn’s first 60 games with the Giants, Winn has been declining since 2002. I don’t see any reason for his decline not to continue. His speed has dropped as well. Winn’s offense has been declining by 5-10 runs per season since his 2002 season, and he’s likely to be 5-10 runs worse this season from last.
Bench – Mark Sweeney, Ryan Klesko, Kevin Frandsen, Todd Linden, Lance Niekro, Jason Ellison
This bench is mediocre at best. With expected problems from Winn and Feliz, the Giants should beef up with a decent player. Klesko may still be able to perform after missing the 2006 season (mostly). If Klesko can platoon, and Aurilia moves to third, the Giants me be okay.
The Pitchers
Starters – Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris
Barry Zito is replacing Jason Schmidt in the rotation. Zito appears to be an adequate replacement for innings and a switch to the NL may improve his dominance. Overall, he will probably not improve, with respect to runs allowed, on Schmidt’s 2006. He should be able to approximate it.
Matt Cain is only 22, and threw a lot of innings as a 21 year-old. He’s struggled in ST so far, and he could be experiencing some issues with his arm. If he’s okay, he should continue to grow, if not overworked. I would expect a repeat of 2006.
Noah Lowry saw his home run rate jump up in 2006, and he continued to struggle on the road. Lowry has a career ERA at home two runs lower than his road ERA. He also had a bad year against LHBs. He’s always been less successful against LHBs, but really struggled in ’06. If that’s just fluctuation, then he ought to see some regression back to his career mark, and thus a significant improvement to his ERA. He can probably shave ten to fifteen runs off his RA from ’06, a swell as throw more innings.
Matt Morris can eat innings. Unfortunately the mileage on his arm isn’t good for very much. He’ll throw 200-210 innings, and allow 100 or so runs for a nice 4.5 ERA. He could be “great and post a 4.25 mark or he could stagger home and post a 5 ERA. We’re only looking at a difference of ten runs either direction. He’s going to be a wash with 2006.
The Bullpen – Armando Benitez, Steve Kline, Brian Wilson, Kevin Correia
This is an ugly bullpen. Armando Benitez, according to Spring reports, has lost his velocity. He’s also supposedly on the trading block. And I don’t like him. He’s in the last year of a $7mil/season contract, and the Giants have gotten 68 innings for the first $14 million. And they were pitched poorly for someone expected to be a top-level closer. His velocity is down, and he won’t be good in 2007.
The bullpen last year had a worse ERA than the starters. That’s not supposed to happen. Wilson and Correia have short careers, and could go any direction. Kline may not have anything left in the tank. It’s not a good bullpen, but last year, the Giant pen posted an ERA of 4.78. They can’t duplicate that, can they? I would expect some regression just because of the youth of Wilson and Correia.
The Results
The pitching staff is going to come home about the same, or slightly worse, with a slightly different distribution. Zito replaces Schmidt; Cain plays the same; Lowry improves, even taking some innings from the bullpen (which should help), and Morris stays the same. The ‘pen improves by fifteen runs, overall lowering the runs allowed to about 750.
The offense is going to have an even better Barry Bonds, and Aurilia has to be better than the ’06 Giant first basemen. Those two improvements, and losing Mike Matheny should improve the offense from last year’s 750 runs to about 790 runs.
That will bump the Giants over a .500 record, but not terribly better than that – about 84-78. After that, it will take a dramatic leap for some player – Feliz having a career year, Winn bouncing back to his 58 game performance that got the Giants to sign him in the first place; the pen recovering lost glories.
The unbalanced schedule could limp the Giants into the playoffs, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Chris Dial
Posted: March 29, 2007 at 12:15 AM |
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Giants collapse started when Benitez blew a save against the Padres by allowing a HR to Termell Sledge.
Agree that Hillenbrand was a horrible acquisition, but it was the manager's fault more than the GM's.
Sweeney had been performing reasonably in the field and at the plate against righthanders, especially on the road. Against left-handers, the Giants had nothing. Hillenbrand was brought in, Alou he said he had to "honor the trade" and played Hillenbrand all the time rather than in a platoon where he belonged. Hillenbrand was a hole in the lineup. Sweeney went to hell.
Missing starter is Russ Ortiz replacing Jamie Wright/Brad Hennessey/Jonathan Sanchez.
Brad Hennessey and Jonathan Sanchez may start on the major league roster but it's not clear yet. No relief pitchers have done very well in spring training.
I also think you've mischaracterized Feliz progression. Saying he is "done" implies that there was a time when he was an above average or great run producer. Rather, he has holes in his swing that have never been fixed. I believe his "decline" (which is modest at best) in rate stats are not the results of declining skills, but rather an illustration of what happens when you increase the PA's of a player who should be filling a platoon role.
In the field, he has a great arm that allowed him to snare multiple ground balls that carried him into foul territory behind 3rd base and still throw the hitter out at first. I doubt his fielding will decline. That's just not worth $5 million when the OPS+ is in the 70's/80's and the player is the epitome of "brain-dead Carribean hitter hacking at slop nightly".
As is hinted at here, Klesko could platoon at first and Aurilia play 3rd against righties. Aurilia isn't very good against righties, but still better than Feliz. Klesko may be very good against righties if he is healthy enough to play regularly.
On Durham - I think it is exceptionally unlikely that his sudden jump in power last year is for real. I think 2004/5 is his true talent, and that he goes back to that, plus some age-related decline. Which means the offense has no power other than Bonds.
At catcher - I can't be nearly as bullish as Dial here, either. I think Molina is teetering on the edge of the cliff, and Alfonzo was exposed as what he was as the year went on. His total lack of strike-zone recognition got exploited, a lot. It's very possible that the Giants get worse catcher production this year than last, especially taking into account that Alfonzo and Molina are both poor fielders.
Right field - This is a super-massive black hole. Unlike Dial, I expect Winn to rebound but his bat is completely inadequate at this position and his arm is mediocre too. Incidentally, it seems Winn will be batting 8, Molina 7, because Molina is too slow to be bunted over. Seriously.
I notice you only list four starters. Nice trick. I think Ortiz will pitch the first half, Sanchez the second. Because the Giants have a bunch of depth here, I doubt it will be much worse than last year, but I doubt it will be much better either.
I strongly dispute that Cain should be expected to repeat last year, though. Check out his bases empty/runners on splits - they're enormous. It could be luck or, perhaps mechanical struggles from the stretch, but he should be expected to improve somewhat regardless.
I too predict 81 wins or slightly better.
Deivi Cruz didn't play much.
Omar Vizquel and Moises Alou are definitely not hackers.
Edgardo Alfonzo wasn't a hacker either, he just had no physical ability to hit a baseball hard in 2005.
Now, Eliezer Alfonzo is a brain dead hacker. He is not interchangeable with Molina despite his full season stats last year. Once the scouts knew he was a hacker, he became useless with the bat. He got some timely clutch hits. He's probably an average hitting backup catcher, which isn't very good.
They are going to need a good outfield when Ortiz pitches. Also is Durham any good at 2B still? He is the kind of guy who I would expect to have zero range with his leg problems
Yeah, just like Manny Ramirez, Carlos Delgado and Albert Pujols. Those guys, just no idea what they're doing at the plate!
Pre trade .261/.330/.422
Post trade .252/.302/.416
The batters lost patience pretty badly after he arrived.
BBs by month
Apr 92
May 103
Jun 78
Jul 89
Aug 74
Sep+Oct 67
As for pitchers
Pre trade ERA 4.37, RA 4.74, k/bb 1.58, hr/9 1.0
Post trade 5.01, 5.32, 1.88, 1.0
September was a very bad month for both hitters and pitchers.
Several noted - why? Because it will be Ortiz to start, and I don't know who will come on next. However, the 5th starter on most teams is some conglomerate, where no one pitcher goes for more than about 120 IP. Usually it will be 100 IP of suck, but the cumulative group will be about the same - a 5+ ERA in 175 IP. Who throws those innings isn't going to matter much, and it won't be the season-breaker.
I can't be nearly as bullish as Dial here, either
I'm not so bullish on the catchers so much as how bad they were last year. Matheny was astonishingly putrid. Getting him out of the lineup will be a massive improvement with almost anyone.
I strongly dispute that Cain should be expected to repeat last year, though. Check out his bases empty/runners on splits - they're enormous. It could be luck or, perhaps mechanical struggles from the stretch, but he should be expected to improve somewhat regardless.
I can't tell - you disagree with me that Cain "only" repeats last year - you are certain he'll improve substantially?
Cain threw too much for his age. He'll slow down some this season after some portions of improvement. He may be at 110 ERA+, but he won't jump to 116 ERA+.
He was a pretty good fantasy SS in 2004. It's amazing how perceptions can be so different from reality when you get a full season at SS from a guy who played only 20 games at the position. Much like when I got Berkman eligible as a CF in 2004 based on a single game there in 2003.
Situation PA K/PA BB/PA BABIP XBH/PA
Windup 479 0.238 0.092 0.280 0.073
Stretch 322 0.202 0.134 0.322 0.087
Total 801 0.223 0.109 0.297 0.079</pre>That is a massive difference, and it's why Cain's ERA lagged well behind his peripherals. What do you put this extreme split down to? As I see it, there are two possible explanations.
1) Luck - in which case, we shouldn't expect continued bad luck.
2) Mechanical troubles from the stretch. This is more problematic, but I think we can expect a pitcher like Cain to improve on this in his second full MLB season.
In my view Cain's ERA+ is likely to go up quite a bit - even if he doesn't really improve much as a pitcher. Cain had a 108 ERA+ in 2006. I do not think 116 for 2007 is an overly optimistic prediction.
I would think Linden. He is supposed to get the playing time that was wasted on Finley last year, especially now that he is getting time in CF too.
Winn was uncharacteristically terrible against RHP last year, so I expect he will rebound closer to his career numbers. If he doesn't, or the Giants decide that Winn shouldn't be playing a corner OF spot at all, then Linden may become the RF starter. Roberts rarely plays against LHP at all, so when he sits, Winn will likely play CF with Linden in RF. Klesko should be at 1B, with Niekro to spell him against LHP. Aurilia should take over at 3B when Bochy realizes how much Feliz sucks.
ZiPS isn't too bullish on Linden, predicting a .252/.335/.431 line, but that is a lot better than either Winn or Finley last year. His 50% PECOTA line is better - .262/.348/.456.
Of course, Linden hit .321/.437/.682 at AAA Fresno a couple years ago, so despite his struggles with the big club, I like to think that THAT Linden will show up this year. On the unscientific side of things, I like to think that Linden, guaranteed a spot on the big club, will relax a bit and not be pissed about being stuck in AAA and attempting to hit every pitch out of the park.
I am worried about Lowry. Granted, he had an oblique injury last year, but his K rate went into the crapper and he looks terrible. But, if Lowry, Ortiz, or Sanchez don't put it together, there's always Lincecum waiting in the wings...
he is very talented, he is very young, he has been worked hard....at his age he is either going to breakthrough or breakdown...stasis is just not an option.
Sorry - I meant pretty sure.
I think Cain is going to experience some "tired arm" and struggle a bit.
I heard Pedro Feliz has re-invented his swing. I heard that he was driving the outside pitch to right field with power, something he has failed to do prior to this spring.
one problem when we all start to see most things similarly, the only points of difference are the nits.
One reason I didn't go into more detail about the bench or bullpen is that the 23-25 guys aren't going to impact the team. Well, not so that it could be intelligently commented on - there's a reason they are the 23-25th guys.
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