Looking Forward to 2007 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Without sour, you cannot have sweet...

The Rays have been in existence since 1998, and throughout their 9 years of play it has been like one long stream of bad first dates (front office decisions). When the first dates did happen to go well, the second dates were just disasters (on field results). The 2006 season was another disaster of a second date, even though the first date was pretty interesting. Unfortunately when October came Rays fans still had to come home to the empty house and half a bottle of cheap scotch. Things should be better in 2007, both in the front office and on the field.

This preview will be broken down into parts. The first part will be a review of the goals set in the 2006 preview and how the Rays organization performed relative to those goals. The second part of the review will be a look ahead to 2007, and the setting of organizational goals for the upcoming season. Third, I will give my take on individual Rays players.

Finally, there are a few things that you should be aware of going in: 1) I will use Rays, Devil Rays and Devil Dogs interchangeably when referring to the team. 2) I will also use Tampa, Tampa Bay and St. Pete interchangeably. 3) I will make as many cheap pot shots at the Mets as possible. If those things annoy you, continue at your own risk.

Part One: Review of 2006 Goals

Last year in this space these were the goals I set for the Devil Rays:

1. Take a step forward. 95 wins isn’t a realistic target; however, another 60-70-win season should be considered a failure. I think the number should be 78 wins. It’s aggressive, an 11 win improvement over last year, and would be the most wins in the sad history of the Devil Rays. If the Rays plan on competing in 2008 or 2009 they need to start making steps forward now, as a step back is inevitable at some point.

2. Last year the Rays had four young players take major steps forward in Kazmir, Gomes, Cantu, and Orvella. Expecting the same kind of progress from four more players would be tough; however, based on the system and some of the other young players on the roster I think 2 is a reasonable and fair expectation. My guess? Upton, and McClung.

3. The big jump – One of their good young players Crawford, Rocco, Gomes, Kazmir, or Cantu needs to make the jump to super star level.

4. The Pipeline – Prospect guru John Sickles – Gives Rays prospects one A and nine B’s, plus Upton as an un-graded player. A few B’s need to make the jump to A range, and they need to net a couple more B’s for the system, hopefully on the pitching side.

5. Be aggressive in the trade market – be sure to get reasonable return for Lugo and Huff. 1. – Grade: F – This was a step backward to 2001 levels of incompetence, as the organization added its third 100-loss year to its embarrassingly bad resume. A loss total in the 80’s would have been a tremendous accomplishment for this “team”.

2. – Grade: F – None of the Rays at the major league level made the jump. In fact, two who looked like potential stars stepped back in Cantu and Gomes.

3. – Grade: B- – Kazmir, once again had a fantastic season. If he had made a full slate of starts he would have gotten the nod as making the jump to superstar level, and would have jumped to the grade A- level.

4. – Grade: A - Last year Sickles graded the Rays with one A, and nine B’s. This year they check in with 3 A’s, 11 B’s, and another 4 C+’s that I think are interesting. The farm has more talent in it this year than they did last year, and by a significant amount.

5. – Grade: B – Lugo was shipped out of town for stalled prospect Joel Guzman (BA rated #10) and Sergio Pedroza (BA rated #27 in Rays system). I’d say that’s a sufficient return, as I assume it was the best deal on the table and those players have more value than the compensation picks would have had. Huff was shipped out of town for Zobrist and Mitch Talbot (BA rated #13 in Rays system) – again a better deal than the compensation picks.

Overall Grade: C+, I am probably being generous here, but the improvement of the farm system was likely the biggest story of the Rays 06 season. When you add talent like Longoria, Iwamura, Talbot, and Guzman while players like Reid Brignac, Matt Walker, Jacob McGee, Jeff Neimann, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson all develop greatly from the previous year, I can’t help but look past the abysmal and embarrassing win total.

Part Two: 2007 Goals

1. Take a step forward. 95 wins isn’t a realistic target. However, another 60-70-win season should be considered a failure. I think the number should be 75 wins. It’s aggressive, a 14 win improvement over last year, and would be the most wins in the sad history of the Devil Rays. If the Rays plan on competing in 2009 or 2010 they need to start making steps forward now, as a step back is inevitable at some point. Yes, this is virtually the same as last year; they need to win more damn ball games.

2. Step it up: More production for young veterans. Baldelli and Crawford need to be better as the organization is counting on those two pre-prime players improving and being among the best players in the American league.

3. Keep’em Healthy: The Rays are for the first time in their history rich in pitching prospects. Jeff Niemann took a major step forward in AA last year, Jacob McGee was as dominant as any pitcher in the Midwest League, and Wade Davis and Matt Walker were also dominant for Southwest Michigan (just not as great as young Mr. McGee). Jeremey Hellickson was great in the NY-Penn League and Mitch Talbot was very good in AA, while Jason Hammel and Andy Sonnanstine also pitched well. The Rays could have 5 of the top 100 pitching prospects in baseball, with Niemann and McGee as good a 1-2 as just about anyone, with only the Yankees clearly better.

4. Figure out the best way to deploy your starting nine in the future. They have some interesting challenges while sorting through third base, second base and first base.

5. Find a good therapist – The Devil Rays, from where I sit, seem to have an awful lot of Milton Bradley-types in the organization. It is possible that Elijah Dukes is a lost cause, and that would be a damn shame, but the Rays have to make sure that whatever issues the other young Rays have get worked through and put behind them.

Part Three

Catcher: Dioner Navarro

The 22 year old backstop made his 3rd stop in 3 seasons when he debuted with the Rays after being acquired in the Julio Lugo deal last summer. In 200 at bats for the Rays, he was disappointing, hitting only .244/.316/342. With that said, the acquisition of Navarro was an organizational upgrade for the Rays, as they had no strong long-term options at catcher prior to this acquisition. The future for this once highly thought of prospect is only lukewarm. ZiPS expects Navarro to hit .249/.323/.341, which is not enough to be an asset. Catcher is still an area which the Rays need to upgrade, but at least now they have some upside in place. Last year they had a lot of proven mediocrity, now they have just likely mediocrity. Shawn Riggans is also KOI (Kind of Interesting).

First Base: Greg Norton

Coming off a career year, Norton looks to be the strong half of the Rays first base platoon. ZiPS rightfully is skeptical of the 34 year-old’s breakout season and only projects .245/.323/.398 for the corner player, which is well off last years clip of .296/.374/.520. The Rays plan to carry 12 pitchers when they break camp, so Norton does provide some flexibility on defense for the Rays, (he can stand not only in the vicinity of first base, but also in the vicinities of left field and right field) which may be useful for a team that may not carry a true 4th or 5th outfielder). Organizational depth at 1b is non-existent. Wes Bankston, looked to have a chance to be a quality player at this time last year, but after a stalled season and a failed attempt to learn 3B(?!), Bankston has regressed. If his bat returns to 2005 form, the Rays best long-term option at first base could be Jorge Cantu. Psychopath Elijah Dukes may also have a shot at landing there in the future if he doesn't end up in jail first.

Taking a brief break from player profiles, I’m going to rant a little bit about mis-management last season. After a nice 2005 where he hit .290/.360/.480 in Montgomery (which is pretty good for the Southern League), 22 year-old Wes Bankston strained an oblique at the beginning of last season. When he came back, instead of putting him back at his natural position they moved him to 3b, to fill an organizational need? What was 1b? A strength? Ridiculous. Of course, he stunk it up and likely would have stunk it up at 1b as well… so I don’t know what I’m ranting about. I sound like a Mets fan.

Second Base: Jorge Cantu

2006 was a disastrous year for the 25-year-old Cantu who was tremendous during the 2005 season. ZiPs projects Cantu to regain some of his lost ground with an anticipated line of .267/.305/.461, up from his 2006 line of .249/.295/.404, but not quite back to the .286/.311/.497 performance in ’05. It was also another year that could generously be considered a challenge for Cantu defensively, as he did nothing to change his reputation as a lead gloved albatross when playing at the keystone. Second base is a position of depth for the Rays organization and if Cantu needs to be moved to first base or the bench (depending on his bat) Zobrist (shifting for Brignac), Iwamura (shifting for Longoria), BJ Upton. or Elliot Johnson could all prove to be average or better options for the club.

SS: Ben Zobrist

Acquired from the Astros in the Aubrey Huff deal, Zobrist is a utility infielder masquerading as a starting shortstop while keeping the position warm for Reid Brignac. Another switch hitter, Zobrist doesn't have much pop but should field the position like a major leaguer and draw enough walks to have an OBP in the mid 300's. Zobrist’s value as a starter is completely tied to his ability to draw walks and play defense and if those skills don’t translate well, it won’t work since he won't hit for power or average. With BJ no longer touted as the SS of the future, Brignac, an oversized SS who has very few questions about his bat, has inherited that title.

I would like to take a second to plug a product I strongly believe in, Glaceau’s Vitamin Water, the best thing to come out of France since fries. I’m writing this with the worst hangover in the history of mankind, and I want to mention that Vitamin Water may very well be the greatest invention in hangover relief since cold pizza.

3b: Akinori Iwamura

The 28 year old Japanese import is my favorite off season signing. ZiPS like Aki to the tune of .288/.350/.453 with significant positional versatility, as there was talk of him being able to play the keystone or center field when he was posted. Iwamura has shown considerable power in Japan; however, it is unlikely to translate on this side of the pond. His defense will also be interesting to watch as he is a five time! five time! five time! WCW Champion! Hold up?! I mean Japanese League Gold Glover. Normally you don't tout the starting 3b's positional versatility as strength but when Evan Longoria is nipping at your heels, you take whatever you can get. I certainly expect he will produce at levels far greater than the immortal Kaz Matsui.

LF: Carl Crawford

The best player in the history of the Devil Rays and the team’s first superstar put up a virtually identical line (translated) as he did the previous year: .305/350/500 coupled with very strong defense and some of the best base running in the American League. Crawford, amazingly still has room to improve, and with him entering his prime years I wouldn’t be surprised if he was as one of the best players in the AL.

CF: Rocco Baldelli

After missing 2 years due to injury, Rocco returned to form, hitting .300/340/530. ZiPS doesn't like him that much, projecting .299/.342/.476, which I would personally take the over on. Their was some talk about a Rocco to Florida deal over the winter for starting pitching help, but I, for one, was glad nothing came of it as Baldelli is an exciting and fun player to watch.

RF: Del Young

Our little boy is growing up before our eyes. Young, debuted last year and didn't put up a "Milledge" (also known as “piss off one’s teammates, while laying a big egg”) hitting .317/.336/.476 with the brilliant plate coverage he has long been known for. At 20 years-old, the only question for Del is if he will win Rookie of the Year. My vote is no, as there are other more advanced youngsters graduating, but I don't think it is likely we will see many have a better career. Oh, yeah… I guess the question also remains if he will refrain from assaulting any more umpires.

DH: Jonny Gomes

After a breakthrough ‘05, Gomes gave back a lot of his gains. I didn't expect Gomes to continue to post .282/.372/.534 lines, but I sure as heck, didn't expect .216/.325/.431 either. I think Gomes will settle into a nice .350/.475 player, but he won't hit enough to be a long term answer at DH (though he should hit enough to keep it from being a tremendous drag to team performance).

Bench:

BJ is penciled in, for a Chone Figgins type role, and that’s a disappointment. With him sandwiched between Iwamura and Longoria at third, Briganic coming hard at short, and the outfield full, it really is limiting the places where Upton can play in Tampa Bay. Figgins or bust at this point I guess. It looks to me like Brendan Harris will be the traditional utility infielder, though he might be better suited for the NL where his bat could add more value as a pinch hitter. Ty Wigginton, should be the weak side of the first base platoon, and could see time anywhere from second to third to the corner outfield. Wigginton has turned himself into one of the nicer tactical players in baseball as he can pound lefties, play a bunch of spots and hit a little versus righties, though he’s certainly stretched when given regular at bats. Josh Paul looks like the backup catcher, and he’s a pure catch and throw backstop.

Starting Pitching:

Last year it was Kazmir, an interesting guy in McClung and 3 guys who stunk. This year it should be better with Kazmir, interesting guys in Shields and Howell, and 2 guys who stink. Remember… baby steps. At least this rotation has a decent shot of being better than the Mets’ rotation… then again put the Rays in the NL East, and they might be a playoff team as well.

Scott Kazmir - Anyone reading Baseball Primer/Think Factory knows about Scott Kazmir. Boy would he look good in a Mets uniform, the team might actually have an ace if he was pitching in Shea. The Rays are lucky to have him, and will be lucky if they can keep him healthy. The most important player in the organization again improved at the major league level, reducing his walks and fanning more guys. The only downside was his meager 24 starts. Keep him healthy.

Jaime Shields - Shields had a decent season, and to my surprise actually pitched well. Despite a 6-8 record, and a 4.84 ERA – Shields’ peripherals were actually good. He is on my list of fantasy sleepers for 2007, and could be a very nice 6th SP for deep mixed leagues. Shields looks like he may be a pretty solid mid-rotation starter, which is one more solid mid-rotation starter than the Rays had this time last year.

Jae Seo - Seo isn't a good pitcher, he is filling a rotation slot until some of the Rays younger arms are ready. For Seo to be successful, his translated walk rate needs to be closer to 1 than 3, and his K rate closer to 5 than 4. His stuff is marginal so he will walk a fine line between not bad and a double-A type pitcher.

Casey Fossum - Casey has better stuff than Seo, but also stinks. Maybe they can package him with a mediocre prospect and damaged goods and get a hall of fame pitcher with a bunch left in the tank. If they can't, look for 160 bad innings out of him, a trip to the DL, and frustration as you can never figure out exactly why he can't get big leaguers out.

JP Howell - Looks like the number 5, but unlike the numbers 3 and 4 - he actually has some upside. He improved greatly after arriving in TB last season, shaving a couple walks per nine off his average from the previous year. That was the difference from being JPB (just plain bad) to KOI (kind of interesting), so give the kid the ball for a couple months, and lets see what he's got.

The Pen :

The long and the short of it, this group stinks. It will be the worst bunch in baseball.

Seth McClung - Last year in this space I said that McClung could be a breakout player in 2006, and well, I was wrong (look out Jamie Sheilds). His walk rate climbed, his K rate went through the floor, and now he is the odds on favorite to win the closer job. Where for art thou Danys Baez?

Scott Dohlman - 48 innings, 7.08 ERA... yes that screams guaranteed contract and spot on the 40-Man roster.

Chad Orvella - 24 innings, 7.40 ERA... he is a good clubhouse guy, as long as he is around, Dohlman doesn't have to feel bad about his ‘06 season. Yes, I also thought he would be good last year, it’s pretty clear that I don’t have a clue.

Dan Miceli – He’ll be 37 this year and will more likely walk that many batters than rack up those many K’s . Unlike Dohlman and McClung, at least Miceli was a good releiver... who cares if it was during the Carter administration.

Rudy Lugo – Wait…this must be a mistake…the Devil Rays have a major league pitcher in their bullpen? Miracles never cease...well at least small miracles...like a good 4th man in the pen.

Shawn Camp – He’s a pretty decent middle/long reliever; the same pitcher as Lugo with worse stuff and a better idea of how to pitch.

Edwin Jackson - Failed prospect, live arm... *yawn*

Tim Corcoran - Only 29, whenever I think of him, I think of Eddie Harris... but he isn't that old... or that greasy... or that good. I don't know why I make that association.