Looking Forward to 2008:  Arizona Diamondbacks

Jim McLennan of the AZSnakePit.Com recently quoted the opening lines from “A Tale of Two Cities” to sum up his feelings on the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.”

The 2007 Dbacks underachieved and overachieved at the same time: their hitters were worse than expected, their pitching was better than hoped for; their run differential was atrocious, their win total was excellent. They looked like the clutchest clutch gods who ever clutched and the suckiest sucks who ever sucked—sometimes in the same game.

Much has been written about the 2007 Dbacks, trying to understand what happened and why it happened; bullpen usage was dissected, pinch hit power was examined, Melvin’s managerial super-powers were proffered—and in the end, it was decided that the Dbacks were just lucky. The brutal four game sweep at the hands of the Rockies ended Arizona’s season with a whimper and confirmed the “luck” theory in the minds of many. Good old Pythagoras stopped spinning in his grave, and the order of the universe was restored. The answer, it turned out, was rather simple: it was “42”.

The hitters:

How underrated is Chris Snyder? Snyder was a second round pick in the 2002 draft, and he benefited from the generous offensive environments of Arizona’s minor league teams to post very solid numbers in his first three seasons as a pro. He dominated in El Paso in 2004, got called up to the majors to experience that train-wreck of a season, and was left to struggle and ride the bench in 2005, when the smart thing would’ve been to send him to AAA and let him continue his development. He made enough progress as J. Estrada’s backup singer in 2006 to precipitate Estrada’s exile to Milwaukee—a trade facilitated by the fact that Estrada was a certifiable royal pain disliked by everyone in the clubhouse.

As the starting catcher in 2007, Snyder overcame an abysmal start of the season (a slow start was a requirement by then hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, who wanted to make sure players took all of April and May to work on tightening their sphincters instead of hitting the ball with authority) and hit very well in the second half of the season. Snyder’s line stood at 0.212/.0.296/.364 at the All Star break; he then proceeded to hit like an All Star (0.292/0.386/0.503 in 161 at bats in the second half) and helped the offense overcome Eric Byrnes’s stinky second half and Orlando Hudson’s DL stint in September. Snyder’s second half resurgence cemented his status as the starting catcher going into 2008.

Few people noticed Snyder’s second half offensive barrage; even fewer people realize how good defensively Snyder was last year. The Dbacks have always liked his defense, but last year he made major strides in his agility and game management. The Hardball Times gave him 9.5 defensive Win Shares (WS), tops in the NL among catchers, ahead of R. Martin, and 17 total WS, second in the NL among catchers, behind Martin. Snyder worked on his stamina and agility this offseason, by taking Muay Thai kick boxing classes, then went on to destroy the ball in spring training. In 2008, he may emerge as one of the better young catchers in the league, which the Dbacks will happily welcome.

Will Conor Jackson finally have a breakout season? Conor Jackson’s curse is simple: too many people focus on what he isn’t, instead of enjoying what he is. He’s really not a very good defender at 1B; he’s slightly below average there, and with plenty of work and just enough encouragement, he may one day be an average defensive first baseman. But far too many people in Arizona want him to be the second coming of Mark Grace—despite the fact that most people in Arizona saw Grace in his decline, when he wasn’t nearly as good with the glove or the bat, and was living off his “Mr. 1990s Hitter” reputation.

Jackson can hit, yet the Dbacks have steadily taken away at bats over the last two years in favor of Tony Clark, even though Clark was pretty bad defensively at 1B as well, and even though Conor is a better overall hitter than Clark. Some baseball experts have said that Conor needed to be benched against tough right-handed pitchers because he could not hit them—while Tony could. In fact, one such expert wrote this in a recent chat (at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=447):

“I will say this. Joe Sheehan always has his guys and his piece on his guys. If I was doing the opposite, if I was doing anti-guys who are NOT going to break out but in fact go backwards—Conor Jackson is one of the first to come to mind.

Think about what Jackson did last year, and then think about Tony Clark. Basically, in 2007, the team took away Jackson’s 175-200 toughest at-bats and gave them to Tony Clark. This year, he gets them back. Don’t expect upward numbers with that situation.”

The beauty here is that we can just look at the numbers (from baseball-reference.com) and see for ourselves what they say about Conor’s hitting abilities:

Jackson in his career vs. power pitchers: 0.306/0.388/0.462/ 0.850 OPS (349 PA)
Jackson in his career vs. average P/F pitchers: 0.278/ 0.344/0.464/ 0.808 OPS (339 PA)
Jackson in his career vs. Finesse pitchers: .0.262/0.356/0.406/ 0.762 OPS (444 PA)

As a side note, if you break it down by flyball (FB) vs. groundball (GB) pitchers, Jackson has the following career OPS:
Vs. FB pitchers: 0.911 OPS (399 PA)
Vs. avg FB/GB pitchers: 0.861 OPS (328 PA)
Vs. GB pitchers: 0.650 OPS

Mind you, Jackson’s career basically encompasses Clark’s stint in Arizona. So when given the chance, Conor has hit power pitchers very well, especially power flyball pitchers. The bane of his life has been the finesse junk-ballers who keep the ball down.

Let’s look at more numbers, just for kicks. Taken from yahoo’s mlb stats page, these are Jackson’s career numbers versus “power” right handed NL West pitchers, minimum 10 at bats (2008 stats not included):

Vs. Jake Peavy: 1.008 OPS (22 AB)
Vs. Brad Penny: 1.208 OPS (19 AB)
Vs. Matt Cain: 0.928 OPS (13 AB)
Vs. Jason Schmidt: 0.970 OPS (11 AB)

In fact, the right-handed power pitcher in the NL West who’s been killing Jackson is Chad Billingsley, against whom Jackson has 0.000 OPS in 10 career at bats (a tough hanging Chad). I may sound like a fanboy here (no, really?) but Jackson will hit, and he will hit a lot, in 2008 and in the future. He just needs to be given 650 PAs and left alone.

Will Orlando Hudson take the money and run? The Dbacks are going to have a really tough decision on their hands this year. Orlando Hudson is an excellent second baseman, a three times Gold Glover (two of them won with the Dbacks, and chances are he’ll win another one this year, barring an injury); he’s also valuable with the bat, utilizing the offensive advantages of Chase Field to post the best two seasons of his career. On top of that, he’s just a really nice guy and pleasure to watch. Hudson is also an impending free agent and the Dbacks would have to pony up a bit of cash if they want to keep him.

There are several legitimate reasons to let Hudson depart after 2008. One, he’ll be a type A free agent, and will fetch two high draft picks in the 2009 draft. Since Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz may also be type A free agents after this season, the Dbacks could have a draft of “Moneyball” proportions in 2009, with up to 8 selections before the end of the second round. Two, Hudson will be too expensive to the Dbacks, probably wanting (and receiving) at least 4 years at about $10m/year as a free agent. And three, Hudson will be 32 at the start of the 2009 season. As Thomas Hobbes said once, the collapse of second basemen in their 30s is “nasty, brutish, and short” (as Robbie Alomar nods in approval).

The Dbacks have two viable options at second base for 2009. One is Chris Burke, the one time future heir to Craig Biggio in Houston, unceremoniously dispatched to the Dbacks by Ed Wade for (you guessed it) a reliever. The other is speedy Emilio Bonifacio whose emergence last season made former “golden boy” Alberto Callaspo disposable. Many in the front office like Burke, and were plenty happy to snatch him from the Astros; many others are excited by Bonifacio’s tools, speed, and defense around the keystone bag, and believe he’ll be Hudson’s worthy heir—minus the prodigious verbosity—in 2009.

Neither Burke nor Bonifacio figure to be as valuable in 2009 as Hudson would be, but both would be significantly cheaper. Assuming the remaining hitters develop as expected (or hoped?), and assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t fall flat on his face, the Dbacks should be able to afford a light hitting second baseman in 2009 if he can really flash the glove there. It’s far too early to handicap the starting second baseman of the 2009 Dbacks, but I think Hudson will depart as a free agent after another Gold Glove winning season, Bonifacio will win the 2B job (and leadoff hitter spot), and Burke will be disappointed yet again.

Will the real Stephen Drew please stand up? Drew was the consensus top amateur hitter in the 2004 draft and fell to the Dbacks at 15 because of concerns about his agent’s bonus demands. Word is the Dbacks were looking at David Prucey (taken at #16 by the Blue Jays) and Philip Hughes (who went to the Yankees at #23) before Drew became available. Stephen’s career so far has been a rollercoaster ride. He held out for about a year before signing a contract with AZ, and played some indy ball in the meantime; he then tore up the California league (not a surprise, given the league’s offensive environment and home ballpark at the time) but suffered a leg injury after his promotion to AA and ended the season on a sour note. In 2006, Drew posted rather unimpressive numbers in the PCL, then had an outstanding debut (albeit aided by high BABIP) once Counsell got hurt.

In 2007, Drew sucked. There’s really no way to sugar-coat Drew’s abysmal campaign last year. To his credit, he played pretty good defense at shortstop; his range isn’t great and he can have a tough time fielding balls hit directly at him, but he’s excellent at handling the ball around the 2B bag and turning the double play. He also drew (no pun intended) a solid number of walks (60 walks vs. 100 strikeouts in just over 600 PAs). Plus, his bat really woke up in September and in the playoffs, and helped the Dbacks capture the NL West crown and sweep the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs.

Drew’s real struggles came at the plate. Any way you slice it, 0.238/0.313/0.0.370 line is not something you’d want from your starting shortstop and former first round draft pick. Incidentally, Drew had respectable 44 extra base hits in 543 at bats, but watching him hit, one would wonder how he collected all those extra base hits. Stephens’s line drive swing from 2006 was replaced by a long uppercut hack, the end result being plenty of high fly balls well short of the warning track. Mind you, scouts who saw him thought his swing was fine, and he was just getting unlucky (a sentiment publicly shared by Bob Melvin & co, and, not surprisingly, by Drew himself). But there was bad luck and then there was bad hitting. And Drew had his fair share of both. The Dbacks, and their fans, are certainly hoping he will have a much better campaign in 2008—but honestly, I have absolutely no clue what we’ll get from Stephen this year… it could be heaven and it could be hell.

Is Mark Reynolds too legit to quit? Mark Reynolds saved Arizona’s 2007 season. With Chad Tracy battling knee problems, and eventually landing on the DL after microfracture surgery, the Dbacks lost one of their better middle of the order bats in early May. Guys like Callaspo, Ojeda and D’Antona were not deemed viable to replace him, so GM Josh Byrnes and BoMel gambled on Reynolds, who was tearing up the Southern League at the time. Mark came up in May and hit like a man possessed, and then overcame a miserable stretch in June/July (including a first time ever string of 9 consecutive strikeouts) to post excellent numbers in August/September and help push the Dbacks in the playoffs. Simply, when Reynolds is hot, his bat is sick and he can carry the team offensively all by himself.

Mark’s home run power is unrivaled on the team—even though both Chris Young and Justin Upton will give him a run for the money this year. Reynolds puts up spectacles at batting practice, the sound coming off the bat when it connects with the ball resembling a gun shot. Reynolds also imparts excellent backspin on the ball, giving it extra hang time and carry, and he can muscle a pitch over to the deepest part of any ball park in a hurry. His swing is so powerful that he can miss the ball and still hit it out of the ballpark.

The big question about his swing is his strikeout rate. Reynolds struck out a lot last year, and he will miss on quality fastballs down and away, up and in, as well as sliders off the plate. He tinkered with his swing in spring training, working on hitting the ball the other way, but in the end decided to remain committed to his power hitting approach—but try to be more selective with the pitches he swings at. I believe that’s the correct approach; his power is his greatest offensive asset, and if he can cut down on his strikeouts by not swinging at borderline pitches while remaining aggressive with pitches in the strike zone, he should be able to provide healthy home run production without setting any K records. Mark demonstrated in the minors that he could make adjustments and increase his BB/K ratio with more experience, and my money is on him continuing the process in the majors.

Will Eric Byrnes ever have a productive second half of the season? I want to state that Eric Byrnes has proven me wrong two years in a row. I doubted his ability to play in CF and be productive offensively in 2006, and he was an above average centerfielder. Then I questioned his potential to be useful in LF in 2007, arguing for both Scott Hairston and Carlos Quentin over him, and Byrnes put up a very good season where he was an asset with the bat (despite another dreadful mid-summer collapse) and was simply excellent with the glove and on the base paths. In fact, when combining his offense, defense and base-running, Eric was one of the best left fielders in the National League last year.

With a $30m, 3 year extension in his back pocket and both Hairston and Quentin out of sight and out of mind, Byrnes will be the starting left fielder in Arizona through 2010, or until he falls flat on his face and gets replaced by Gerardo Parra. Eric is still fairly young and in very good physical shape (except for when he calls in sick with the flu on the Dan Patrick show because he was, in reality, hung over like a sailor), so he should continue to be an asset with his defense and base running throughout his extension. He really needs to figure out, however, how to overcome his disastrous second half swoons, and maintain his OPS in the 0.825-0.850 range. Byrnes doesn’t need to be the star on the team, as the lineup will feature more potent bats in Young, Upton, Reynolds and Jackson; he simply needs to be a more consistent complimentary bat throughout the entire season.

How good can Chris Young really be? The Dbacks are really high on Chris Young. That became obvious when they offered him a long term deal after his first full season in the majors—a season in which he became the first rookie ever to hit at least 30 home runs and steal at least 25 bases, but also a season in which he failed to post an OBP over .300. The Dbacks looked at Young’s season as a glass half full opportunity and probably felt this offseason was about as the best time to lock him up to a team-friendly extension. It helps that both Josh Byrnes and Bob Melvin really like Chris as a person and employee; this much became readily apparent during the press-conference announcing the contract. Josh Byrnes emphasized Young’s character and personality; Melvin mentioned his very positive presence in the clubhouse. Chris himself sounded very appreciative of the trust the Dbacks placed in him by offering him the extension and expressed commitment to work hard and improve in all facets of the game to become the best player he can be.

While I hate using a cliché here, I really believe that the sky is the limit for Chris Young. I don’t think he’ll ever have another full season with sub-0.300 OBP. He’ll very likely never hit .300 in a season, but something in the .275 range with 60-70 walks and 120-130 strikeouts a year is a very realistic expectation. His power-speed combination makes him a 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases threat, should the Dbacks decide to let him run that much. In 2008, it appears that he’ll continue to occupy the lead off spot in the lineup, with Eric Byrnes apparently settling in the number 2 slot, so Young will receive plenty of at bats and chances to steal bases. He’ll be a real monster from a fantasy baseball perspective (I wonder if Chris drafts himself on his own team?) but I also believe that his power-speed combo, along with the improving defense in centerfield and expected (significant) bump in OBP will make him a true star as soon as this year and one of Arizona’s key pillars.

Will “The Franchise” be Arizona’s best player this year? Justin Upton is the youngest player in the majors, at 20 years of age. For a sense of perspective, when the Big Unit (himself the second oldest player in the majors, after Jamie Moyer) made his first pro start, Justin had just celebrated his first birthday. Justin may very well become one of the best players in the majors, at 20 years of age. His talent is so obvious that he stands out in everything he does on the baseball field—when he hits, when he runs, and when he throws. Scouts were saying last year that he looked like a man among boys in high A and AA, despite being one of the youngest players in those leagues. Having seen him in real life last week, he’s starting to look like a man among boys in the majors. He’s that good.

Justin’s already got an advanced approach at the plate, and (as Orlando Hudson said a few days ago), he seems to be learning and making key adjustments from one at bat to another—or even in the same at bat. A great at bat against Jeff Francis a few days ago summarizes it nicely: first pitch, strike one looking; second pitch, strike two swinging (almost fell in the batter’s box); third pitch, a home run to the deepest part of Chase Field. On defense, Justin’s still learning. He’s extremely fast and can get to almost any ball that stays high and fair long enough, but he will take a wrong read on an occasion and will air-mail a ball—like he did in Dan Haren’s start against the Dodgers, where he lasered a ball way over the head of Mark Reynolds and over the Dbacks dugout. But word is that Justin is an extremely fast learner, and the Dbacks are very pleased with the progress he’s demonstrating. I pray that Upton stays healthy; the future, brother, will be awesome.

Will the supporting cast match the 2007 production? The Dbacks had an extremely good bench last year, which contributed to their ability to significantly overachieve in the wins department, given their Pythag. Tony Clark is gone, but Chad Tracy should slide in quite nicely in Clark’s spot and give comparable production. Like Miguel Montero, he is on the DL but both should be back by the first week of April; both will be solid improvements over the current options (Rob Hammock and Alex Romero) and will give Melvin much more productive bats, both when they’re coming off the bench and when they’re starting. Much as I like Hammock personally, he’s really not a major league hitter, and Romero is better off playing every day in AAA while the Dbacks decide between him and Salazar. The other players (Jeff Salazar, Chris Burke, Augie Ojeda) provide enough flexibility defensively and respectable bats offensively to be well suited for Melvin’s needs. Salazar, a waiver claim from the Rockies last year, has embraced the role of the fourth outfield and packs decent enough punch with the bat to make him a dangerous pinch hitter. Burke, a smart pick-up in the Jose Valverde trade, has been taking grounders all over the infield, and also gives Melvin a solid option to plug in at SS against tough left handed pitchers. Augie has embraced the 25th player role: he played well as a starter last year but also seems adept at spot starting and doing well in limited at bats. A team could do worse.

The pitchers:

Is Brandon Webb underrated? This may sound like a silly question, given that Webb won the Cy Young award in 2006 and finished second in 2007. But maybe because of limited national coverage that the Dbacks receive, or under-appreciation of the difficult ballpark Webb calls home, or the quiet, easy-going personality that Brandon has, I sometimes feel that plenty of (maybe more casual) fans don’t comprehend how exceptionally good Webb has been since bursting on the scene in 2003. For example, among all active starters (with at least 1000 innings pitched), he has the second high-highest ERA+ (144), after Pedro’s 160 and ahead of Clemens (143), Santana (141), Oswalt (139) and Johnson (138). When looking at all pitchers with at least 1,000 ip, Webb’s ERA+ is 8th best of all time.

His “neutralized” career record (courtesy of baseball-reference.com) is 102 wins vs. 48 losses in 167 (actual) games, with 2.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. His actual career record is 68 wins vs. 55 losses, with 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Those 68 wins may make it very difficult for him to reach a cumulative number that would appeal to Hall of Fame voters; even if we assume that pitchers like Curt Schilling and John Smoltz will enter the HOF with fewer than 250 career wins, Brandon still needs to finish with around 225 wins and capture a few additional Cy Young awards to overcome the damage done by the poor offensive support he received in his first three seasons. He turns 29 on May 9th, has been quite healthy in his career (except for a short DL stint in 2006), so hopefully he can stay dominant for another 10 years—and hopefully all of them will be in Arizona uniform.

Can Dan Haren replicate his 2007 campaign? The Dbacks gave up a LOT for Haren. I think many under-appreciated the amount of talent that Arizona sent to Oakland last year, and some of that stems from the fact that Eveland was hurt, Smith and Cunningham were never heralded as solid prospects, Gonzalez was more tools and projection than results, and both Anderson and Carter were still far from the majors that they could easily flame out. The fact that Arizona sent these six players to Oakland is a testament to the depth in the Dbacks system, but also a realization that many of them were blocked at the majors for the foreseeable future and an awareness that the Dbacks, as presently constructed, will be contending for the playoffs over the next three years—and Haren would help more, in both getting to the playoffs and succeeding there, than these six players would have.

Haren has the raw stuff to be just as good this year as he was in 2007. The key questions coming into this season are: 1) can he limit the damage when he gives up the long ball; 2) can he overcome the hitters environment in Chase Field; 3) and can he remain consistent over an entire season, rather than having two-three great months followed by two-three rather average months (as it happened last year). Curt Schilling thrived at Chase Field despite allowing a hefty number of home runs; he achieved that by walking very few and striking out a ton—and a high strikeout to walk ratio will be critical to Haren’s success as well. In Arizona, Haren loses the friendly confines of the ballpark in Oakland, but gains a set of extremely fast outfielders and infield defense that can be above average—plus he has the luxury of facing the opposing pitcher rather than a DH. It’s unrealistic to expect him to post results similar to Schilling’s 2001 and 2002 seasons, but Haren has potential to remain an excellent workhorse and post well above average ERA+ as Webb’s sidekick.

Is Randy Johnson’s back back and better than ever? The mullet is back. The scowl is on. The Big Unit is off the DL and in the rotation. The Dbacks are so giddy with anticipation that they petitioned mlb.tv to allow free internet access to Johnson’s season debut online (courtesy of poor scheduling by the TV station). Dbacks fans are high on expectations. I even made a bet with Russlan riding on the Unit’s often repaired back, betting that Randy will have a higher VORP at season’s end than another first ballot HOFer, Pedro Martinez.

In an ideal world, Randy Johnson will dominate like he did with the Astros, going 21-4 the rest of the way with sub-2 ERA and adding another Cy Young award to his resume—and then he’ll save game 7 of the 2008 World Series against the Boston Red Sox, ending an epic 1-0 battle between Brandon Webb and Josh Beckett decided by a Justin Upton home run in the eighth inning. In reality, he is old enough to be the father of a handful of players currently on the Dbacks and his back recently underwent a third major surgery. I really have no idea what to expect from Randy this year, and nor does anyone else, really. Am just hoping he stays healthy and off the DL the rest of way, makes 25 starts, and gets career win 300—and flashes some of the dominance that made him a HOF pitcher.

What can the Dbacks get from Doug Davis? Doug will probably never throw 222 innings again and probably never strike out 208 batters again. This year, if the Dbacks get 111 IP and 104 strikeouts from him, they’ll be ecstatic. In the spring, Doug was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, and after making two starts (including a great start against the Dodgers), he underwent surgery on April 10th to remove the cancerous mass. There is no timeline on his return, even though Davis insists he’ll be back in four to six weeks. The Dbacks will fill his spot in the rotation Edgar Gonzalez first, and should he struggle, they will take a longer look at Yusmeiro Petit or Max Scherzer. Luckily for the Dbacks, all three of these guys could ably replace Doug in the rotation. In the meantime, the Dbacks and their fans are wishing Doug the best as he’s recovering from the surgery.

Will Micah Owings have the best combined VORP of any pitcher in baseball? Micah is a very good hitter. He also happens to be a pretty good pitcher. After a solid rookie season, in which he posted 109 ERA+ over 150+ innings and 153 OPS+ over 60 at bats, Owings seems primed for another very good season. He’s had two very good starts already, and we all know he can hit. Which leads us to the question: can he have the biggest combined pitching and hitting VORP of any starting pitcher in the game? If he makes 30 starts, he may have 180+ innings and 90+ at bats to do so. 110 ERA+ and 150 OPS+ might do it.

Do the Dbacks have enough starting pitching depth? Given Doug Davis’s surgery, RJ’s back, and the usual unexpected events that happen during a season (i.e., double-headers), the Dbacks will need solid production from their sixth starter(s) over a decent number of appearances this year. Edgar Gonzalez gets a first crack at the rotation in place of Davis, by virtue of having posted respectable ERA+ of 94 over 102 innings last year. Yusmeiro Petit, 103 ERA+ over 57 innings in 2007, is next in line should Edgar stumble. Recently acquired Billy Buckner and Juan Guttierez can be called up in case of an emergency, but the Dbacks certainly are hoping not to rely on them heavily this year. The real wild card here is Max Scherzer, Arizona’s first round pick in the 2006 draft. Max signed late, made fun of the California league hitters in his brief stay here, then struggled at times with his secondary pitches in the Southern League. I spoke with a scout at Chase Field recently who told me Scherzer would be Arizona’s closer—this June. For now, however, Max is starting in Tucson and, if his domination in two starts is any indication, he may even be starting in Arizona before long. With an electric 98 mph fastball, a hard slider and a much improved changeup, Scherzer could be an ace in Arizona’s hole cards this year.

Will the bullpen close the deal? The 2007 bullpen played a huge role in the team’s ability to win 90 games despite being outscored. In particular, the pen had 5 dominant relievers for the close games (Slaten, Cruz, Pena, Lyon—who lead all of baseball in holds—and Valverde—who lead all of baseball in saves) and then an assortment of relievers for use in blowouts (Nippert, Medders, EdGonzalez, etc). In the offseason, Valverde was traded to Houston for Chad Qualls, Chris Burke and Juan Guttierez—a trade that was mainly done because of financial reasons, as the Dbacks needs to free up cash for Dan Haren, but also because the Dbacks felt the return for Jose was too great to pass up… and maybe just as importantly, the front office heeded the wise advice that it’s always better to trade a player a year early than a year late. With Valverde gone, Lyon was given the closer’s job.

The selection of Lyon over Pena left many people scratching their heads—and many fans grabbing the pitch-forks, especially after Lyon blew a couple of saves in week one—but the move is easily justifiable. Lyon was the setup man last year, and clubhouse rules and seniority give him the first crack at the job. Brandon also was a very effective 8th inning reliever last year, and the pressure in the 9th is about the same, right? Additionally, Lyon handles left handed batters better than Pena, and the thinking is opposing managers will save their LH pinch hitters for the 9th in a tight game. Also, Lyon is really one inning guy, while both Pena and Qualls can work multiple innings—and Lyon’s flyball stuff makes him less effective with runners on than Qualls and Pena’s ground ball tendencies. Finally, Lyon with a handful of shiny saves will likely be a type A free agent after this season, netting Arizona 2 high draft picks in 2009—while Pena and Qualls, minus the saves, will be much cheaper in arbitration next offseason and beyond—and, as always, money talks.

After Lyon, the pecking order is Pena, Qualls, Cruz, Slaten, Medders (who won the war of attrition with Nippert) and the long reliever, currently Petit. Jailen Peguero will be on the Tucson-Arizona shuttle bus, and guys like Billy Buckner, Juan Guttierez, Leo Rosales, Emiliano Fruto and newly-acquired Jon Coultangus may get called up in case of injuries. Even in the pen, Scherzer remains the wild card, as the Dbacks will probably not hesitate to try him in a late inning relief role should Lyon struggle or Pena/Qualls are ineffective.

The prediction: 92 wins, 1st place in the NL West and best record in the National League.