Looking Forward to 2008:  Atlanta Braves

by Sam Hutcheson and Alan Honeycutt

Alan: It was a relatively quiet and predictable offseason, don’tcha think?  Andruw’s exit via free agency was obvious before the start of last season (insert joke here about him leaving a year early). I think we all suspected that the siren song of Tom Glavine, free agent, was going to prove irresistible for a team that had just suffered through 56 starts by Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Lance Cormier (when the best of your 4th and 5th starters has an ERA over 5.20* and Tom Glavine walks into your office, it doesn’t take long before you’re jumping on him like he’s wearing TAG body spray).  The only major move with any hint of surprise was the Renteria trade.

*Yes, I’m ignoring the fact that some guy named Jeff Bennett actually had two useful starts last year in September because they were erased from my memory before the end of the month.

Sam: Yep.  This ain’t brain science or rocket surgery.  Everyone knows what went wrong last year, right?  The Atlanta Braves didn’t win the division for two very simple reasons.  First, Mike Hampton got hurt again.  Second, Andruw Jones sucked.  If either of those two things had not occurred, the Braves would have won the East and returned to the playoffs.  If neither had occurred they would have competed for the NL Championship if not the World Series.  Tom Glavine’s return is all about sand bagging the first.  Mark Teixeira’s acquisition late last year was all about removing the need to worry about the second.

Alan: I don’t know that I trust Hampton (even when he’s healthy) enough to say that he was the missing link last year, but it doesn’t seem like he could have been worse than what the Braves ran out there in his stead.  If AJ has a normal year (340/520), the Braves are a considerably better offensive team.  Pythag says that the Braves were an 88 win team with no pitching and Bad Andruw in the lineup, so, yeah, the Braves look like a team that should have made the playoffs with Hampton and Normal Andruw.

As for the new recruits, the Teixeira deal is the best in-season move the Braves have made since McGriff.  Acquiring a fantastic hitter in his prime is never a bad idea.

Sam: With all due respect to Gary Sheffield…

Alan: Who was acquired in the offseason, but definitely deserves your respect.

Sam: J.D. Drew?  Damn.  Fine.  The point is I agree.  And hey, look, Texas figured out that Jarod Saltalamacchia is really a catcher.  Great, great move.  It bears repeating.

Alan: ...and the Glavine deal is nice, but he’s more of a fourth starter than the ace that the Braves envision.  I actually think that the Braves are at a point where they should have gone for broke a little and traded for a top tier pitcher in addition to signing Tommy.

Sam: I’m not sure they can “afford” a top-tier guy.  Even if the new owners open the purse strings a bit they’re not going to have the cash to acquire and extend Johan Santana, right?  Trading Renteria was a financial move as much as anything, made obvious by the progress of two quality SS prospects certainly, but the purpose of which was to facilitate the Glavine acquisition.  The $8mil they’re not paying Ole Bug Eyes is exactly the $8mil they are paying Glavine.  To get a top flight starter to replace Smoltz some day requires them to jettison another massive contract.  Mike Hampton, I’m looking at you…

But that’s the bird’s eye of it.  Fix the two glaring holes that kept you out of the playoffs last year and treat Hampton as a nice-to-have instead of a must-have in 2008.  That’s what they needed, and that’s what they did.  As such, I am confident that the Braves will win the NL East in 2008.  I think we’re done here.

What?  You think the hoi polloi will want positional breakouts?  Fine.

Positional Previews:

Sam: Maybe Spanky isn’t Mike Piazza.  He regressed to form last year, backing off of his stupid-fresh 07 and just being, you know, All-Star good.  Relinquished the Silver Slugger to that upstart out in LA, but I wouldn’t bet against him taking it back.  He’s still only 24.  He’s probably the most valuable property the Braves currently have once you factor age and position into the deal.  He’s going to hit something greater than or equal to 275/330/450 unless something terrible happens.  He has it in him to up the SLG into the mid 500s.  He’s the best catcher in the division by far.  If we assume he only hits baseline we can still expect him to maintain the same production he provided last year.

Alan: I can’t speak rationally about McCann, so I’ll just agree with what you said.  Color me very disappointed that Javy Lopez, my favorite Brave of all time, got cut in spring training.  I had visions of a flukey productive backup catcher year from him.  He seemed to still have some pop in his bat, which, if he can throw down to second, puts him well ahead of Corky Miller or Brayan Pena.

ZIPS:  300/361/512—Maybe he is Mike Piazza.

1B - Mark Texieria

Sam: Scotty Thorman is still big.  As is his strike zone.  All of which is rendered utterly and completely pointless by the acquisition of Mark Teixeira from Texas.  It has been a long, long time since Chipper Jones was not the best hitter in Atlanta. 

(Um, yeah.  I screwed up the 1B predictions pretty badly last year.  I can admit that.  I really thought Thorman would be decent if not good and that Craig Wilson was not dead.  I was wrong on both counts.)

I see no reason to think Tex will not repeat his NL numbers from last year.  Okay, he probably won’t slug .600+ but 300/400/560 seems pretty reasonable to me.  This is a huge upgrade for the Braves, which should be obvious to anyone.  The guy behind Chipper just went from Andruw Jones, a great player in his own right but not a pure offensive force like Chipper, to Teixeira, who is about as close to a Chipper Jones clone as you’ll ever find.  The guy playing first base just went from below replacement level to competing for the MVP.  I’m not going to break out the respective production of Thorman, Craig Wilson, Chris Woodward(!?) and Julio Franco’s zombie corpse last year.  Children may be watching.  Suffice it to say 1B will improve—has improved—by leaps and bounds from 2007.  Having two Chippers is a really, really good thing. 

ZIPS:  296/384/523—Call me a homer, but I’d be shocked if he gets on base less than 40% of the time, and that SLG is low.

Alan: Homer.  Actually, I totally agree.  Tex is good for a 300/400/550.  It’s difficult to be more set at first base than this.

2B - Kelly Johnson: 

Sam: In a world without Chase Utley, Kelly Johnson would be a superstar.  As it is, he’s just really quite good.  275/375/450.  With his OBP skills he’ll score a ton of runs in front of the Two Chippers.  Also, he looks a lot like Ray Liotta in Field of Dreams.  Have I mentioned that before?

Alan: KJ is just a sweet player to have on your roster - inexpensive, but extremely useful.  How good does the KJ for Marcus Giles swap look these days?

Sam: I hear we’re going to really regret letting Mark DeRosa walk…

ZIPS:  271/376/464—Damn, I nailed that!

SS - Yunel Escobar: 

Sam: Here’s another big change.  Yunel Escobar takes over from Edgar Renteria who was shipped to Detroit in return for a single-A centerfield prospect and Jair Jurrjens.  Escobar is a good player.  He’ll improve the defense at SS quite a bit.  What he will not do is replace Renteria’s 2007 offense, which went mostly unremarked on but was, you know, quite amazingly good.  You don’t get 332/390/470 out of shortstop very often, and you won’t get it out of Yunel Escobar over an entire season.  I mean, I like the kid, and Renteria-to-Detroit was obvious for both financial and positional reasons (the Braves needed quality young arms more than they needed an expensive SS unlikely to repeat his 2007 numbers.) But I have a hard time seeing Escobar repeating that 326/385/451.  300/330/400 doesn’t strain the imagination though and he’ll be a smart, baseball savvy table setter along with Johnson.  He won’t slug like a Renteria did last year.  Luckily, he doesn’t need to.

Alan: Aside from saying that he reminds me a little of Sloth from the Goonies, I can’t knock Yunel too much.  Is he Edgar Renteria, ca. 2007?  No, but neither is Edgar Renteria.  I’m sure that the pitchers will appreciate Escobar’s range in the field, even if he doesn’t put as many runs on the board.  Then again, rumor has it that Escobar’s power is developing and I’ve heard that from a source no less reliable than an anonymous Braves scout quoted by an announcer on a preseason game.  If some guy that talked to Jon “Boog” Sciambi told him that Escobar was good for 15-20 jimmy-jacks this year, who am I to argue?

ZIPS:  297/361/404—Sam: ZIPS likes Yuney better than I do, apparently.  Alan: ...but not as much as Scouty McNoName.

3B - Chipper Jones: 

Sam: One day in the sad future we will have to write a long form appreciation of Chipper Jones.  Today is not that day.  If you don’t know what to expect out of this guy by now, you’re not really paying attention.  Stay healthy.  Mash baseball.  Go to Hall of Fame when you’re done.

Alan: Yeah, Chipper is crazy-good when he’s healthy.  You can pretty much count on him to miss 20-30 games with some random injuries, but, when he’s in the lineup, he’s something to behold at the plate with a swing that is silky smooth from the left side and ball-dentingly powerful from the right.  I’m going to try to make it a point not to take him for granted this year.

ZIPS:  318/415/564

CF - Mark Kotsay

Sam: Okay.  It feels wrong talking about Mark Kotsay here.  Not because Kotsay is terrible or anything, though he might be.  More likely he’s a decent stopgap until Jordan Schafer grows into the position that’s being held for him.  But Mark Kotsay is not Andruw Jones, and that feels wrong. 

Look, I know Andruw had a ####-stained 2007.  I know there was a vocal contingent of Braves’ fans (and others) who liked to give him grief, who gladly supressed all that he did so very right over the last decade in order to have their expectations of failure finally fulfilled last year.  A large segment of the fan base who never could forgive him for not being Willy Mays, who couldn’t forgive him for not being a second Chipper Jones, and who never forgot Loafergate.  But you know, I’m going to miss him.  A lot.  Probably more than any ex-Brave since the departure of Ryan Klesko, I’m going to miss Andruw Jones. 

I liked Andruw.  I liked the way he played.  I liked his joy for the game.  I liked that he was better defensively than Dial could ever bear to admit.  I liked that he was infuriating in his inability to harness “Good Andruw” for more than a month or so at a time but that when he did, he was sublime to watch.  I liked that he pissed Joe Simpson off by not being as abyssmal at the game of baseball as Joe Simpson.  I liked that goofy grin that you couldn’t sandblast off his face.  I liked good Andruw, I liked bad Andruw.  I liked Spiderman, the kid that flipped off the mausoleum of Yankee Stadium in his first two WS at bats, the infernal mess that wound himself into the ground on sliders low and away and the stubborn bastard who would try to pull everything to the Coke Bottle in left.  I liked the entire package, and I will miss him a lot. 

Alan: I’ll just say that Andruw is currently sitting at second or third on my list of all time favorite Braves, shed a single tear and move on to tearing Mark Kotsay apart (did you see how I did that with tear and tearing?).  I know that there was a day in the past when Mark Kotsay took a turn as the greatest defensive CF in the world according to defensive metrics, but it’s been years.  As you said, Kotsay is obviously a temporary solution, the guy warming the spot for Jordan Schafer.  The optimist in me hopes that Kotsay will find some of his old magic and turn in a performance combining good defense in center and a useful OBP.  The cynic in me sees this year’s version of Rico Brogna.  Smart money says he doesn’t make it through the season as the starting CF.

On the plus side, it’s not going to take much to replace Andruw’s 2007 line of 222/311/413.  Kotsay or no, the Braves will probably find a way to match or exceed that.

Sam: In the event that Mark Kotsay is truly horrific he will be replaced by either Gregor Blanco or Josh Anderson or, if he crushes Mississippi the way he crushed the AFL and spring training, Jordan Schafer.  One of those will turn in a league average line.  Barring Schafer simply demanding the job I’d prefer Blanco for the record.

Alan: I just hope that none of those guys is going to stay in the number two hole for long (it is obvious at this point that Kotsay will start the season there).  “Hiding” Kelly Johnson’s bat in the eighth slot is utterly insane.

Sam: Yeah, but I doubt Cox is going to bat the pitcher eighth and let KJ be a second leadoff guy…

Alan: He’s no “genius.”

Sam: But he’s apparently smart enough to not bury one of his best on base guys.  Johnson has hit at the top of the order when he’s been in the lineup.

ZIPS:  277/334/388—As ugly as that looks, it’s not far off from Andruw last year

RF - Jeff Francouer: 

Sam: Honestly, enough ink has been spilled on Jeff Francouer to cover the globe.  I suspect most people here have a good idea of what he is, what he could be, and the roadblocks he has to get through to get from here to there.  He put on muscle in the offseason.  He hits towering homeruns to left.  He’s a magnificent talent that needs to be harnessed.  He’s trying to walk more.  I haven’t thought of any new nicknames for him in a while, but if he keeps this up I may take Chipper’s lead and start calling him Andruw.  Most likely I’ll stick with Captain Freedompants, because I’m weird that way.

Alan: Call me a believer.  Francoeur says all the right things and appears to be working hard on improving the things that need improving.  Chipper is surprisingly astute at times and I think the Andruw comparison is valid.  It’s not going to shock me to see an Andruwesque season with a higher batting average and not so many walks (netting a similar OPS).  In other words, 345/500 with the prettiest teeth in the majors.

ZIPS:  279/321/447—Notice that the difference between Kotsay and Frenchfry is all in the slugging.  Yikes!

LF - Matt DIE-az

Sam: It looks like little Matty Diaz is going to get a full time job this year.  After consecutive seasons of being the RH half of a platoon, the team seems sold on giving him LF outright.  Which seems reasonable, as he hits like, .400 or something.  Brandon Jones had the chance to win the platoon with him in spring but failed.  The Braves seem to be smart enough not to be sold by Joe Borchard’s goofy Floridian line, and no one really thinks Josh Anderson is a real ML left fielder.  So Matt Diaz, come on down.  Time to shine, kiddo.  320/360/450 in his new full time role.

Alan: I would, once again, like to thank the Kansas City Royals organization.

ZIPS—332/364/499 in limited playing time.

The Rest of the Offense (the bench)—

The Braves traditionally carry one backup OF, relying on multi-positional players to cover in the event of an emergency.  Chipper Jones is sort of the default fifth OF.  They carry one backup catcher, one backup corner infielder and two backup middle infielders.  The backup catcher is always—always—a defensive specialist.  The rest depend mostly on who is starting at a given position and who is available in the high minors.  The corner infielder is usually the thunder on the bench, although sometimes they go with an offensive minded OF as well.  This year these spots will shake out from some combination of the following:

Scott Thorman (1B, OF)

Sam: Thorman is the backup first baseman, if for no other reason than he’s out of options.  The team still holds some hope that he’ll develop into a left handed Wes Helms but would deal him quickly and without remorse if they got a reasonable offer.  All indications are that they haven’t gotten any of those.  For the first month of spring training there were rumors of Thorman being moved and Javy Lopez joining the Tom Glavine swan song chorus as the backup 1B and emergency catcher, but that dream ended last week.  As such, this is Scotty Thorman.  He is very big.  He once devoured Adam Laroche.

Alan: The Braves are a great organization.  The do a lot of things really well.  One of the things that they don’t do well is teach their toolsy players how to lay off of the low-and-away breaking ball.  Maybe I’m being too harsh.  Perhaps this is not something that is easily teachable (though, given that, one might think that the scouts would at least mark off for this deficiency, minimizing the number of players in the system that suffer from it).  Anyway, Scotty Thorman is the poster child for toolsy Braves prospects everywhere that have never met a slider in the dirt that they can resist.  If you throw Thorman a fastball down the pipe, he can hit it a long way.  Problematically, it seems that most teams are savvy enough not to throw him fastballs down the pipe.

Sam: Totally unrelated, but when said “savvy” up there I heard it in the voice of Captain Jack Sparrow.  Seriously.  I have no idea why.

ZIPS:  249/296/431—Ye gods.

Brayan Pena, Corky Miller, Clint Sammons(C)

Sam: Um…

Brayan Pena is a switch-hitting catcher with decent defensive skills who looks very much like he rides the short bus in from the Sunshine Center every day before the games.  We call him Corky, because we’re vile, mean people who find entertainment in the trials and tribulations of others.  Bite me.  Corky can hit for some average, but it’s empty at best.  Little power, no peripheral on-base skills with catcher’s speed.  Of course, even with catcher’s speed he is notably faster than Brian McCann, who is the slowest professional athlete I’ve seen since Damon Berryhill lost a foot race to Sid Bream.

Honestly, I didn’t expect them to go out and get an actual Corky to test our mean-spirited Corky, but hey, what the hell.  There’s really not much difference between Corky and Corky, or Clint either for that matter.  Corky Pena spent the second half of 2007 playing different positions in Richmond—the OF and 3B notably.  Corky Miller did not.  Clint Sammons went to UGA.  No, he’s not a real prospect. There is no Jarrod Saltalamacchia here.  If any of these guys is starting regularly it means first, something untoward happened to Spanky and second, the Braves are hurting because of it.  With that said, I’d like to take a little take a little detour if I may.  Turn to your neighbor and say “faith footnote.”

DAMMIT!  Dammit, dammit, dammit, dammit.  God damn it all to hell.  I really, really wanted Javy to succeed.  Yes, I know he’s washed up.  Yes, I know he was never going to win the spot as a defensive backup.  Because he’s Javy freaking Lopez.  He’s the guy that that you carry the defensive backup for.  He’s the guy that Greg Maddux wouldn’t pitch to since Benito Santiago heard him shift in Philadelphia.  But DAMMIT! DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT!  Seriously, you should see me kicking and screaming on the floor here.  I had a dream. 

Tom Glavine was home.  Javy was making noise as a serious roster spot contender. Matt Diaz didn’t have an obvious LH caddy out in left.  I had a dream. 

Glav going a strong six in game seven.  Clearly tiring he walks Derek Jeter to open the seventh.  Out of the pen trots the recently reacquired Greg Maddux, making his second relief appearance ever.  On one day’s rest ‘Dog retires the side, Jorge Posada rolling into the tailor made 4-6-3.  Jeter’s helmet bounces off the infield dirt in frustration.  Maddux smirks.  The lineup is a mess now.  Cox looks over his options.  Now pinch hitting for the pitcher, Javier Looooo-pezzz.  The crowd goes wild.  A banger off the wall in left center.  Shuffles standing into second.  Pandemonium at the stadium.  Sensing the moment, Girardi makes the call.  Mo Riveria to face the righty Matt Diaz. Cox has been waiting for this all series long.  Back comes Diaz.  Out trots the man, the myth, the legend. 

The Klesko. 

First pitch swinging, all brutal grace and violent release, a machete attack that starts above the head, slices the zone clean as meat from bone, arcs back inexorably from whence it came.  Sing to me the rage of Achilles!  No warrior will stand.  No gate will hold.  No force on Earth can contain such a thing.  The ball screams mercilessly into the right field night.  The bat, receptacle of all of the excess energies of the Fleet-footed Man-Killer’s rage, slips the hand, flips once, twice, thrice into the sky, is pinioned there, hangs full seconds before descending once more to ground, spent.  Slow motion infallible demonstration, Newton’s most basic laws at the mercy of the Gods, The Klesko in all of his glory.  Freezes.  Pisses on the Fates.  Peers sightlessly into the night sky.  Tracks the victim of his might into the darkness and void.  Sing to me, oh Muse.  Rage!  Ilium delanda est.  I had a dream. 

It’s almost anti-climatic when John Smoltz trots out of the pen and mows ‘em down like so many nameless spear carriers. 

The Braves were seriously opening the season with Mark Kotsay as their starting CF.  Mike Kelly is available.  I’m not sure Tony Torasco could outhit Scott Thorman but I bet Dave Justice still could.  Is Steve Avery notably worse than Jeff Bennett?  Mark the severing of relations with Richmond by bringing as many members of their best roster ever back together.  Party like it’s 1993.  Hell, I’m open to an NRI for Ron Gant as well.  As likely as not he’ll outhit Josh Anderson and it would get him out of the announcer’s booth to boot.  I had a dream.  Terry Pendleton would stay his sorry ass on the bench.  John Rocker would keep his bloody mouth shut.  The entire debacle of the late 90s would be suddenly, stuporifically righted for the forces of good.  A black man would be president.  It was going to be the greatest story ever told.  I had a dream, dammit.  Lord God Almighty, I had a dream. 

[end faith footnote]

Anyway.  This is my brother Corky.  This is my other brother Corky.  Six of one, half dozen of the other, and Clint Sammons.  Pick ‘em.

Alan: [...]

ZIPS:  278/313/368 (Pena)—Okay, maybe we’ll pick Pena.
ZIPS:  211/306/352 (Miller)
ZIPS:  211/256/311 (Sammons)

Omar Infante (2B, SS, 3B, DL)

Infante will be the super-sub this year, covering all infield positions excepting 1B.  He’s not a great player but he’s hella better than Chris Woodward and Pete Orr.  Of course, in order to do this he will have to take the cast off of his broken hand, something he has not accomplished to date.  He’s healing more slowly than expected and will start the season on the DL.  His expected return date is late April, which means that for the first month his duties will be covered by…

ZIPS:  264/304/393

Martin Prado (2B, SS)
Brent Lillibridge (SS, 3B)

Sam: Prado is your run of the mill replacement level backup middle infielder.  Back in 2006 he turned on a few see-if-he-can-hit-it fastballs, posted a better than embarrassing 262/340/405 including some situational production, hustled and generally made the types of fans who go gooey-eyed for that sort of scrappy, clutch-hearted grit swoon appropriately.  This in turn tripped the “Oh noez, Cox r going to drink our bloodz” reflex of the statty segments of the nation still in long term Keith Lockhart recovery.  As such, depending on who you ask, he’s either clearly the perfect middle infielder, screwed out of a job by SDCNs and their fascination with the far inferior Kelly Johnson, or the spawn of Satan who will incubate himself into the starting lineup by bending Bobby Cox’s weak, age-addled mind into tentacle-knots of Lovecraftian despair.  In reality, Prado is a useful spare part who isn’t going to steal Johnson’s starting spot any more than one of the Corkys is going to play ahead of a healthy Brian McCann.  Martin Prado is not useless.  Bobby Cox isn’t stupid.

ZIPS:  281/324/365

Sam: Lillibridge is a very good SS prospect who is not yet ready for prime time.  He struggled in the high minors last year and he struggled in spring training.  But he is a natural SS, which Prado is not, and until Infante comes off the DL he may hang around the ML squad as the emergency guy.  Otherwise an injury to Escobar puts Prado or Chipper Jones out of position, not something the Braves like to do up the middle.

ZIPS:  250/314/377

Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco (OF)

Sam: Barring a trade, one of these guys will be the fourth outfielder.  Both are Punch and Judy slappers in the style of Juan Pierre.  Both bat left handed.  Both play a reasonably good defensive CF.  Neither should ever play a corner.  They’d make Ryan Langerhans look positively effective if they did.  Brandon Jones was in the mix here as well, but he’s not really a CF and he had a bad spring anyway.  Lillibridge played CF in college but the Braves have never shown an inkling of desire to put him back out there.  Chipper and Thorman have also been known to stumble around the corner OF spots on occasion.  I expect Anderson will make the team out of Orlando, though I’d rather it be Blanco.  I have no reason other than loyalty to the guy that’s been in the organization longer.

Alan: Is it really this hard to find a fourth outfielder that can play a little defense and carry a bat to the plate?

Sam: Apparently, yes.  Willie Harris and Dewayne Wise say hi.

ZIPS:  268/312/327 (Anderson)
ZIPS:  261/349/333 (Blanco)—ZIPS defends my bias.  Yay me!  And the team agreed out of spring.  Blanco goes north, Anderson to the minors.  Yay me!

Starting Pitchers:

John Smoltz

At some point John Smoltz must get old, break down and stop.  It’s an immutable law of nature.  That’s why his tweaky shoulder is such a concern these days.  He and the team say they’re just being careful, but the whole “let’s work out on the back fields and hide from the press” thing, followed by the chance of opening the year on the DL, even if for a few days, throws the caution flag high and wide.  John Smoltz is great.  As long as he is healthy he should match any pitcher in the division.  But the fact of the matter is John Smoltz will be 41 come May, and 41 is old.  41 with a history of injury is old and brittle.

ZIPS:  14-7, 3.35, 204 innings

Tim Hudson

Sam: Finally.

Alan: Do you ever find yourself missing Chucky Thomas?  Yeah, me neither.

ZIPS:  14-9, 3.88, 197 innings

Tom Glavine

Sam: If the purpose of signing Tom Glavine were to have a true #3 starter, it would have been a mistake.  But the purpose of signing Tom Glavine was to staunch the bleeding that was the lower end of the rotation last year.  He’s 42—older than John Smoltz—and is well into his decline phase.  As much as I’d love a swan song, he’s going to be pushing it to hit league average.  Thing is, league average for 200 innings drastically improves the Braves rotation.  It was that bad last year.

Alan: Exactly.  Signing Tommy was such an obvious move that the 2008 season may not have been allowed to unfold had JS not done it.  Huh?  Frank Wren is the GM now?  Neat.

ZIPS:  11-11, 4.59, 192 innings

Mike Hampton:

Sam: You know what I think?  I think Mike Hampton will out pitch Pedro Martinez in 2008.  Yep.  I said it.  I’m not a’feard. 

Alan: If there’s a game in August this year where Mike Hampton starts, pitches effectively, and is replaced by Mike Gonzalez (who also pitches effectively), you might want to cash in that 401(k) and use it before the world ends.

ZIPS:  1-1, 3.71, 17 innings (Alan:  Really?  A whole 17?  I can’t wait to see the Gonzalez projection.)

Jair Jurrjens

Sam: Probably the most important acquisition this offseason (considering that Teixeira was acquired last year.) The Braves have been turning out hitting prospects like Model T’s but it’s been quite some time since they developed a real, top tier starter.  Their best in the last decade is anchoring the Cardinals’ rotation.  I like Chuck James and Jo-Jo Reyes enough, but Jurrjens looks like a better prospect than anything the farm has supplied in years.  He has struggled late in spring but with James heading to Richmond to rebuild arm strength and Reyes joining him to build, um, skills, Jurrjens seems to have the fifth starter spot locked up.

Alan: I think Jair (rhymes with eye-air) Jurrjens (rhymes with Jurgens...oh, I guess that one’s more obvious) could put up third starter numbers this year, which is going to look good out of the fifth slot (or the fourth after Hampton goes down).  Plus, I just like a guy with three hard ‘J’ sounds in his name.  You don’t get that very often in the states.

ZIPS:  8-8, 4.27, 158 innings (Alan:  Yeah, that would work.)

Chuck James
Jo-Jo Reyes

James is the more polished starter and should reclaim a rotation spot if Jurrjens struggles, Glavine struggles, Smoltz gets hurt or Mike Hampton attempts to open a jar of pickles.  Reyes is a prospect certainly, but was over matched in his call up last year and didn’t win a position this spring.  Both will start the season in AAA.

ZIPS:  9-9, 4.44, 154 innings (James)
ZIPS:  7-10, 5.22 150 innings (Reyes)

Jeff Bennett
Buddy Carlyle

Both of these guys could make the bullpen as spot starters and long relief.  Both filled in as starters last year with fair to middling results.  If nothing else, they provide depth.

ZIPS:  4-4, 5.00, 81 innings (Bennett)
ZIPS:  5-6, 4.91, 88 innings (Carlyle)

Relief: 

Sam: You know, I really don’t want to write up the relief corps.  Say something interesting and funny here.

Alan: [crickets]

Sam: No, really, say something funny here.

Alan: [crickets]

Sam: Dammit!  [existential sigh]

Um, Rafeal Soriano is the closer.  He’s good when healthy.  (ZIPS: 3-1, 3.05 in 56 innings)

Mike Gonzalez is hurt again.  I’m pretty sure this is the only reason Mike Hampton can walk. (ZIPS:  3-1, 2.47 in 40 innings—Alan:  Oh, ZIPS, you taunt me.)

Some combination of Blaine Boyer, Peter Moylan, Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, Chris Resop, Jeff Ridgeway and Royce Ring will join the aforementioned Bennett and Carlyle to fill out the pen.  They will be middle relievers, except Moylan who will likely be the primary setup guy for Soriano at least until Gonzalez returns.  They will bore me until they screw up, at which point they will piss me off.  This is the general plight of middle relievers.  It’s what they get for getting paid $3mil cold to sit around and pitch twice a week.

Alan: Sorry, I think I dozed off there.  This looks like a typical Braves bullpen to me:  one very talented guy surrounded by a bunch of arms that Bobby Cox will mix and match to pitch the middle relief innings, yielding results that will range anywhere from spectacular to “oh, dear Jesus, please just let us trade outs for runs until we can get Soriano into the game.” Seriously, what do you want me to say?  Once you get past the upper echelon, relief pitchers are terribly unpredictable.  You never know whether you’re going to wind up with Hammond and Holmes, unstoppable tandem (a.k.a. 2002) or Hammond and Holmes, waiver wire fodder (a.k.a. The Rest of Their Careers).

Soriano will be good.  Gonzalez will be injured.  Pete Moylan will be Australian.  That’s about all I can safely predict (and I feel really good about that last one).

Waiting in the wings:

Jordan Schafer : Mark Kotsay :: Jeff Francouer : Raul Mondesi

Brandon Jones looks to rebuild his LF potential in Richmond. 

Jo-Jo Reyes has been covered elsewhere.

Management:

Frank Wren takes over from John Schuerholz, though Schuerholz is still in the org as a VP or something.  I’ll let you know if anything weird happens, but so far it looks like Wren is just John Scherholz part two, which shouldn’t be confused with John Schuerholz, Jr. who couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.  (Alan:  That’s Little Johnny Nepotism to you, Sam.  Show a little respect.) Bobby Cox helms the ship again.

Conclusion:

Sam: Braves good.  Win division.  Eat banana.

Alan: I’m not as certain about our chances.  We’re (again) in the position where things need to break right for us to win the division.  We need 200+ innings out of the arm that Smoltz has been nursing all spring.  It would help if the corpse of Mark Kotsay gets reanimated.  I don’t know what the backup plan is if (when) Hampton goes down and Jair Jurrjens struggles.  I will say that they’ve definitely got a shot.

Sam: Sure, but I have ended these things with “Braves good.  Win division.  Eat banana,” for years now, and I’m not going to let the facts get in the way of a good closer.  Plus, Mike Hampton is going to outpitch Pedro Martinez. 

**UPDATE**

Sam: A couple of relevant happenings since the completion of this piece and it going live.  First, Scott Thorman made it through waivers and was shipped unceremoniously off to Richmond.  This tells us that the rest of the league know exactly how to get him out, much as Alan suggested.  He’ll try to salvage a journeyman career in AAA.  His spot on the roster was taken by Corky Pena who is sometimes listed as a third catcher.  In fact he’s an emergency C, emergency 3B, emergency OF and please-god-don’t-let-anything-happen-to-Tex-at-1B.  His offensive profile, such that it is, fits with the Braves needs more than Thorman, who have a lot of regulars who can spank the ball hard.  Pena has a better shot as a pinch hitter, which is his primary role, of getting on base for one of the big guns to knock around the pads.  There is a high likelihood that he is being showcased for a trade.  Early returns indicate the Braves could use a reliable veteran setup man until Mike Gonzalez gets back.

Brent Lillibridge wasn’t ready and was sent down when Atlanta snatched Ruben Gotay from the Mets.  Gotay and Martin Prado are the backup infielders until Infante comes back and makes Prado redundant.  Gotay has a little pop for an infielder, had a good year in Shea last year and is a lot better for 2008 than Lillibridge would be.

Super prospect Jordan Schafer was suspended for 50 games today, for taking HGH.  That doesn’t derail his career but it makes the acquisition of Kotsay and his hoped for rebound even more important.  So far Kotsay has provided much more than expected.  The Braves need him to keep it up more than ever now.  Schafer won’t be called up mid-season this year.

Oh, and Mike Hampton pulled his freaking titty or something.  And he’ll still outpitch Pedro.  Jo-Jo Reyes is up to fill the slot until Chuck James is rehabbed or Hampton just ups and dies.—smh (4/9/08)