Looking Forward to 2008: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are an organization that has been on the cusp of contention the past two years, never quite making it over the top.  In 2006, after 5 years of futility under Dan O’Brien and Trader Jim Bowden, the Reds hired former Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky to take over the struggling franchise.  Coming in with a strong scouting background from a successful team known for its player development, Krivsky brought a wave of optimism from Minnesota. 

The optimism looked warranted at the beginning of the season.  The division was weak, and the Reds stayed in contention the whole way.  The first major move of Krivsky’s tenure was a resounding success, dealing from depth by sending talented but inconsistent outfielder Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox for middle of the rotation starter Bronson Arroyo.  Arroyo responded with his best season, putting up a 142 ERA+ over 240 innings, all while pitching in the Great American Bandbox.

Krivsky’s next move was to steal talented but inconsistent middle infielder Brandon Phillips from the Cleveland Indians.  Phillips responded well to a full time job, slugging 17 homers and putting up an impressive triple slash line .276/.324/.427 that belied his 88 OPS+ while playing good defense.  With the Reds stocked up offensively with good young players, all they needed was bullpen help to push them over the top.

And that’s when all the optimism brought in with Krivsky evaporated.  Krivsky traded Austin Kearns, an above average corner outfielder both offensively and defensively, Felipe Lopez a defensively challenged former all-star shortstop, and Ryan Wagner a struggling relief prospect, to the Washington Nationals for relievers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, starting pitching prospect Darryl Thompson, and second baseman Brendan Harris.  Majewski turned out to be damaged goods from the start, and Bray pitched well, but in limited innings and then came up lame.  Thompson has the potential to even the trade out, but right now he’s just another B-level pitching prospect.  Harris was never given a chance by the Reds and sent to the Rays, where he had a nice season with the bat the next year.  The offense fell apart, the bullpen never came together, and the Reds finished 3.5 behind the eventual World Series champion Cardinals.

The Reds never put it together in 2007, despite the continued weakness of the NL Central.  Arroyo declined, though he remained a solid middle of the rotation starter.  Aaron Harang established himself with a repeat of 2006 and became one of the best pitchers in the league.  Adam Dunn regained his stroke and had a great season.  Ken Griffey, Jr was healthy for most of a season.  But inconsistent offense from third base, too much playing time for bench players Norris Hopper and Juan Castro, an injury to supersub Ryan Freel, and too much dreck at the bottom of the rotation and, surprise!, the bullpen, sunk the Reds to fifth place, and closer to last than first.

The Reds come into the 2008 season as a trendy pick for a surprise team here at the Think Factory.  They feature four prospects with impact player potential as soon as this year.  They have a strong offense and a strong defense.  Their bullpen has been bolstered with the signing of a potentially elite closer.  The back of their rotation features a high upside rookie and a mediocre innings eater, which should be an improvement over last season’s problems.  They feature a manager with a reputation as a morale booster, though one who is also known to be phobic of young position players.  Yet, the Reds face an uphill climb as a team clearly third best in its division, looking up at two teams who could win 90+ games with a few lucky breaks.  So, on to the preview!

ZiPs used for offensive numbers.  Win projection based on quick and dirty estimate of 10 RC = 1 win plus projected defense estimate based on UZR, scouting reputation, and my own observations of the players.  UZR numbers used are three year averages unless otherwise noted.  These numbers are not regressed to replacement level nor are they park adjusted, do to incompetence on part of the previewer.  I am not a statistician, so this is a rough estimate only.  Reading this preview at work may result in people thinking you are crazy as you curse my analysis and projections.  Do not inhale, and turn off preview while gas pump is running.  For external use only.

Catchers:
Dave Ross (.203/.271/.399;68 OPS+;32 RC in 348 PA;59% CS)
ZiPs:( .203/.275/.369;19.1 RC in 206 PA)(40% CS)
Javier Valentin (.276/.328/.387;82 OPS+;30 RC in 265 PA;13% CS)
ZiPs:(.261/.328/.406;27 RC in 228 PA)(25% CS)

Dave Ross is an incredibly inconsistent player.  He has a career OPS+ of 90, but has never had a season within ten points of it.  He’s had two seasons with a 130 OPS+, and two seasons with a 70 OPS+ (with one season of a 44 OPS+).  Defensively, he’s very good, with a career CS% of 40%.  Last year he threw out nearly 60% of runners trying for the SB; his offense, however, was putrid.  ZiPs projects him no better this year, and at age 31, I tend to agree.

Javier Valentin is Dave Ross’s polar opposite.  He has a career 82 OPS+, and the past three years has put up 82, 88, and 129 (spot the outlier!).  He hit well for a catcher last year, and will likely do so again this year.  His defense left something to be desired, however, throwing out just five runners.  His career averages are around 30%, and he seems likely to head back that direction.

The two will form a productive offense/defense platoon.  Dave Ross is an injury risk, but as a catch and throw guy, he’s not terribly hard to replace if it comes to that.  There’s also little downside here.  Valentin is as close a known commodity for a catcher as a non-star gets, and Ross is unlikely to hit worse than he did last year.  It all adds up to a solid position for the Reds.  Paul Bako is up while Dave Ross is injured, but I expect him to be a non-factor.  (55 RC)

1st Basemen:
Joey Votto(.321/.360/.548;127 OPS+;17 RC in 89 PA)(UZR unrated, Rep:  Average)
ZiPs:(.281/.357/.466;92 RC in 625 PA)(+0 D)
Scott Hatteberg:(.310 /.394/ .474;120 OPS+;69 RC in 417 PA)(UZR -1, Rep:  Excellent)
ZiPs:(.261/.348/.374;47 RC in 395 PA)(+5 D)

Joey Votto is the top first base prospect in baseball, and if PECOTA is to be believed, one of the few first base prospects capable of becoming an impact player.  ZiPs really likes him, expecting him to be a star out of the gate.  With the GAB helping him, he very well could be.  His only obstacle is Dusty Baker, who has a preference for both defense and veterans.  Still, Baker’s going to play Votto because it seems unlikely that Votto will give him a choice.

Scott Hatteberg is a guy consistently rated around average at first by most advanced defensive metrics, but organizations love his glove.  I think that first base defense is underrated by UZR, due to the importance of receiving at the position.  Still, Hatteberg is 38, and his stats are greatly inflated by the GAB, where he hit .370/.436/.571.  Hatteberg will get some time do to his glove thing, but he’s not really a championship caliber player, and when he finally drops off, I expect him to crater.

Much like Valentin/Ross at catcher, I expect a productive offense/defense platoon at first.  I expect Votto to get the lion shares of the ABs and for Hatteberg to be complaining about playing time by May.  Hatteberg will likely get 250 ABs or so, which will bring down the overall production.  Votto’s not a young prospect, however, and that line above likely represents his true ability.  All adds up to an excellent position for the Reds. (120 RC)

2nd Basemen:
Brandon Phillips(.288/.331/.485; 105 OPS+; 98 RC in 702 PA)(2007 UZR +10, Rep:  Good)
ZiPs:(.271/.325/.435;79.9 RC in 615 PA)(+10 D)
Jeff Keppinger(.332/.400/.477;123 OPS+;44 RC in 276 PA)(UZR +0, Rep: Average)
ZiPs:(.307/.360/.408;66 RC in 487 PA)(+0 D)
Ryan Freel (see Centerfielders section)

Brandon Phillips is the feather in Krivsky’s hat.  A good defensive second basement that puts up 80 RC is an excellent thing to have.  Recently signed to a more than reasonable deal this off season, the 27 year old has entered his prime.  I see no reason he won’t match that ZiPs projection, and he’ll exceed it some point over the next four years.  Yes, he’s helped by his home park, but he’s an above average 2nd basemen no matter where he plays.  So why the controversy over the signing?

Jeff Keppinger is a free talent pick up that has done the same thing everywhere he’s been: hit.  He hits for average, has a good eye, and a bit of pop.  He’s not as good defensively as Phillips, but he’s also far from a butcher.  Add in that he makes the league minimum, and that’s a player.  Many people here on BBTF felt that Phillips was a sell high candidate, but Keppinger will get his ABs.  People forget that Dusty Baker broke in Ramon Martinez, who was a useful utility player.  I fully expect Keppinger to get 400-500 ABs this year while spending time at SS, 2nd, and 3rd and playing 3-4 days a week.  Not even the Cubs can match the Reds infield depth, with both Keppinger and Ryan Freel (covered in CF section) giving them offense off the bench.  Oh, yeah, they’ve got Juan Castro, too (blech).

Phillips will be the everyday player, getting spelled once a week by Keppinger to keep him rested.  2nd base is a solid position for the Reds, and another above average spot. (146 RC)

Shortstops:
Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468;99 OPS+;57 RC in 430 PA)(UZR +2,Rep: Good)
ZiPs:(.257/.317/.417;56 RC in 471 PA)(+0 D)
Juan Castro(.180/.211/.236;14 OPS+;5 RC in 98 PA)(UZR +0;Rep:  Excellent)
ZiPs:(.235/.280/.365;16.6 RC in 181 PA)(-5 D)
Jeff Keppinger(See 2nd Basemen)

Perhaps the Red Sox should have kept the Sea Bass.  Alex Gonzalez did what he always does last year, hitting for decent average while supplying some pop.  Helped by his home park, he was still a pretty good player until injuries struck, limiting him to 110 games.  His UZR average the past three years has been no better than average, and he is in decline.  He’s on the DL to start the season, with the offensively superior, though defensively inferior, Jeff Keppinger taking his place.  I’d like to see a Keppinger/Gonzalez offense/defense platoon put to use here, much like at C and 1st, but suspect that Baker’s going to want his D here.

Which brings us to the problem that is Juan Castro:  once an elite defensive player, he’s living on reputation, as his UZR is average now, and he’s now 36.  He can’t hit (I’d be very surprised if he matches that ZiPs projection), he can’t field, and he’s making just under $1,000,000.  But his defensive reputation is out sized and he looks smooth out there.  Baker likes his defense, and though Castro won’t start, he could end up getting more playing time than he deserves, like another Baker favorite, Neifi Perez.  The big difference is that Perez was a good defender, and Castro’s not.

Baker’s choice of Keppinger as the starter over Castro to fill in for the Sea Bass is a good sign.  I still expect Castro to get time as a late inning defensive replacement, which could hurt the team.  If I thought that Keppinger and Sea Bass would split time, I’d count this position as above average for the Reds.  I suspect that Keppinger will spell Sea Bass twice a week, and Castro to get quite a bit of playing time.  As a result, this is the first below average position for the Reds.  If Castro gets 300 ABs, it’s a vortex of suck.  Hopefully he’ll get 100 or so, Keppinger will get around 250-300 ABs here and it’ll be just below average.  (56 RC)

3rd Basemen
Edwin Encarnacion( .289/.356/.438;101 OPS+;82 RC in 556 PA)(UZR +0, Rep:  Bad)
ZiPs:(.291/.361/.460;84 RC in 562 PA)(0 D)
Jeff Keppinger(See 2nd Basemen)
Ryan Freel(See Centerfielders)

This is the real test for Baker.  If Edwin Encarnacion hits poorly until Sea Bass comes back and Keppinger is on fire, will Baker keep Encarnacion in the line-up and use Keppinger as a super sub?  I just don’t know the answer to that.  Encarnacion is an above average offensive third baseman with an average glove, despite his stone glove rep.  He’s all of 25, so there’s some upside there as well.  He could thrive under Baker, much like Aramis Ramirez did in Chicago.  Or he could be replaced if he gets off to a slow start, which he does from time-to-time.  I’ll assume Encarnation plays, and that gives the Reds another above average position, and I think Encarnation will exceed his ZiPs, hitting for better average and more power.  If its Keppinger, it’s a below average position, as he hits well for a 2nd sacker, but not a 3rd baseman.  (90 RC)

Leftfielders:
Adam Dunn(.264/.386/.554;136 OPS+;117 RC in 632 PA)(UZR -12,Rep: Bad)
ZiPs:(.239/.366/.498;99.8 RC in 630 PA)(-20 D)
Ryan Freel(See Centerfielders)
Norris Hopper(See Centerfielders)

Adam Dunn has been the best player on the Reds roster basically since he made his debut.  The big slugger consistently does his walks/power/strike out things, with little variation.  Having said that, 2006 was definitely an off year for Dunn, so 2007’s revitalization was a nice bonus for the Reds.  In his walk year with the club, I expect him to put up a line closer to what he did last year than his ZiPs.  I also expect his bad defense to remain so.  Still, an elite hitter, and somebody’s really good future DH.  Freel gives the team a decent offensive option for spelling Dunn, and Hopper is good at being legs, adding up to an excellent position overall for the Reds. (115 RC)

Centerfielders:
Corey Patterson(.269/.304/.386;80 OPS+;58 RC in 503 PA)(UZR +13,Rep:  Excellent)
ZiPs:( .257.295/.402;58.5 RC in 523 PA)(+15 D)
Ryan Freel( .245/.308/.347;30 RC in 304 PA)(UZR 0,Rep: Average)
ZiPs:( .264/.346 /.376;51.7 RC in 435 PA)(0 D)
Norris Hopper( .329/.371 /.388;94 OPS+;44 RC in 335 PA)(UZR +30,Rep:  Excellent)
ZiPs:( .291/.330/.340;42.2 RC in 405 PA)(+15 D)

Corey Patterson is a bad fit for this team.  He’s a defense first centerfielder with a little pop and few other offensive skills.  He actually projects worse than Norris Hopper.  A healthy Freel would likely out perform him offensively.  He’s also slated to bat lead off.  The real reason he’s a bad fit for this team is that he might turn in a career year that’s not really any different than any of his other years.  Patterson could put up a .275 .315 .450 year with good D at the GAB.  It’s not hard to imagine that line fooling the Reds into seeing an illusion as real improvement followed by an longer contract.  Its also not hard to see this causing Bruce to be shipped out of town or Dunn not resigned due to the money given to Patterson.  Now, if Patterson puts up the previous line and the Reds let him walk, it’ll work out for everyone.  But with a manager enamored with speed and a GM enamored with defense, Patterson could end up creating a problem for the Reds through no fault of his own.

Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper are why Corey Patterson is unnecessary.  Barring a career year from the former Oriole, Freel and Hopper could give them more offense and roughly the same defense without the risk.  Assuming Patterson hits his projection, Freel and Hopper will be better choices, never mind a certain minor league option to be covered later.  Still, even with Patterson, the Reds look to be a little below average at this position.  Its just the future that could be the problem, and it hasn’t happened yet.  Patterson will get more PA than projected above, and Freel will get less.  Hopper’s line looks about right, however.  (120 RC)

Rightfielders:
Ken Griffey, Jr.(.277/.372/.496;119 OPS+;100 RC in 623 PA)(1 yr UZR -26,Rep:  Bad)
ZiPs:(.272/.346/.480;71.6 RC in 478 PA)(-26 D)
Ryan Freel(See Centerfielders)
Norris Hopper(See Centerfielders)

Ken Griffey, Jr is nine homers from 600 and just had his first healthy season in years.  This would be an excellent time to trade the slugger, but its not going to happen.  As is, Junior’s about average for his position, offense and defense combined, if he remains healthy.  I think he’ll miss a couple of weeks here and there, but will still get around 450-500 ABs.  The Reds have the depth to cover for him in Freel and Hopper, and with the top outfield prospect in the game waiting if he does have an extended absence.  One of the true problems about having a Junior/Dunn tandem in the corners is that it creates a perceived need for a good centerfielder.  I do wonder if that might be overstated for the GAB.  It’s a small park, and its centerfield is not incredibly spacious.  I often wonder if the park helps or hurts Junior and Dunn.  If it helps them, god help the team that makes them corner outfielders next year.  This position looks about average for the Reds, offense and defense combined.  (72 RC, 774 total)

Farm System:
Jay Bruce(.305/.358/.567 at Louisville)
ZiPs:(.266/.317/.476;74.7 RC in 564 PA)

Jay Bruce is the top offensive prospect in the game.  He’s an average centerfielder defensively (based on my observations and scouting reports flitting around the intertubes).  His ZiPs projection above should be considered his bottom line possibility.  If he ends up in Cinci this year, its because he tore AAA Louisville to shreds.  He could easily put up a .300/.380/.530 if he’s hot, and be worth 2 to 3 wins over Patterson, even with the difference in glove.  However, I don’t actually expect him to be starting with the big club this year.  I expect Patterson to keep hold of the CF spot, and that Bruce will ride the pine if any injuries occur.  I hope to be wrong, but I don’t think Baker will trust him with a big league job this year.  Add thirty runs created to the above total if he does come up to stay in May.

Starting Rotation:
Aaron Harang(231.7 IP;3.73 ERA;125 ERA+ ;52/218 BB/K;100 RA)
ZiPs:(221 IP;3.87 ERA;52/196 BB/K;104 RA)

Bronson Arroyo(210 IP;4.23 ERA;110 ERA+;63/156 BB/K;109 RA)
ZiPs:(200 IP;4.36 ERA;56/130 BB/K;106 RA)

Johnny Cueto(161 IP;3.07 ERA;34/170 BB/K;63RA)
ZiPs:(154 IP;4.97 ERA;49/122 BB/K;93 RA)

Edison Volquez(34 IP;4.52 ERA;100 ERA+;15/29 BB/K;18 RA)
ZiPs:(178 IP;5.21 ERA;77/144 BB/K;113 RA)

Josh Fogg(165 IP;4.94 ERA;97 ERA+;59/94 BB/K;99 RA)
ZiPs:(152 IP;5.27 ERA;51/77 BB/K;97 RA)

Aaron Harang is one of the best pitchers in MLB.  He’s had three years of 200 IP, two years of 120 ERA+, and he finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year.  He’s a true #1, and if he pitched somewhere other than the GAB, he’d be a lot more famous.  Within the division, I like Arroyo a little better than Zambrano, due to his consistency, better than Sheets because of his durability, but not quite as much as Oswalt, who’s just more dominant all around.  I expect at least a 220 inning campaign with an ERA in the around 3.70.  An excellent spot for the Reds and a pitcher that matches up with any of them. (95 RA)

Bronson Arroyo is the pitcher everyone was concentrating on after his dominant 2006 season, where he posted 240 IP of a 142 ERA+, finishing 23 in the MVP voting.  Arroyo has since come down from that impossible high, but he’s no less than a true #3, and has been better than that in two of the last four seasons.  I expect a string of 115 ERA+ from here on out, say 210 innings of 4.20 ERA ball, pitching a little better than last year, but never again attaining 2006 dominance.  Still, the Reds end up with a solid #2 and an excellent stopper to keep the pen from getting worn out.  (100 RA)

Johnny Cueto is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, soaring past Homer Bailey on the Reds depth charts.  He blew threw the minors last year, culminating with a 2.05 ERA in 4 starts for AAA Louisville.  Cueto features a low 90s fastball with good movement and good command.  He features one of the best sliders in the minors, and is nearly un-hittable when its on.  With the addition of a change-up in 2006, Cueto became a dominate force in the minors and began climbing the chain.  He found Baker’s favor this year, and I expect him to respond to his skippers confidence.  Whether Baker abuses pitchers or not, he seems to get good work from them, and he’s always shown a confidence in them that he does not necessarily give to his young position players.  I expect Cueto to beat his projection handily, putting up a line similar to Arroyo (4.30 ERA), only in less innings (165). (82 RA)

Edison Volquez is the former top prospect for the Texas Rangers, whom the Reds traded Josh Hamilton for.  Hamilton has the potential to be an excellent centerfielder, and he’s already had some success at the major league level.  Volquez’s success is 100 ERA+ in 34 IP, a nice season in the minors where the Ranger’s sent him all the way back to single A, and Baker’s confidence in his arm.  However, Volquez was great in spring training, showing excellent command and good velocity.  If Volquez succeeds at the big league level, a lot of credit will have to go to Baker, even if Volquez’s arm gets shredded in the end.  Do to Baker’s success at getting the most out of his young arms (no matter the consequences), I expect a decent season out of Volquez, maybe something like 170 innings with a 4.80 ERA in the GAB.  If he manages that, its another solid spot for the Reds. (90 RA)

The Dragonslayer found out what happens if you play with fire in the World Series last year, getting turned into ashes by the Boston Red Sox.  One start likely cost Fogg a lot of money, due to the fact that his reputation was outstripping his ability down the stretch.  Fogg is what he is, and he features the least amount of upside in the rotation.  That ZiPs projection looks spot on to me, but with perhaps a few more innings (165).  Perhaps the strangest thing about Fogg is his innings muncher reputation, as he averages just little over 5 innings per start, and he averages a little under 170 innings a year for his career.  (105 RA) (472 RA;930 IP)

Bullpen:
Middle Relief
Mike Lincoln(DNP)
ZiPs:(NONE)
Jeremy Affeldt(59 IP;3.51 ERA;137 ERA+;33/46 BB/K;26 RA)
ZiPs:(72 IP;4.75 ERA;39/48 BB/K;38 RA)
Jared Burton(43 IP;2.51 ERA;185 ERA+;22/36 BB/K;15 RA)
ZiPs:(67 IP;4.16 ERA;32/54 BB/K;34 RA)
Kent Mercker(DNP)
ZiPs:(NONE)
Todd Coffey(51 IP;5.82 ERA;80 ERA+;19/43 BB/K;36 RA)
ZiPs:(75 IP;4.92 ERA:25/50 BB/K;45 RA)
Matt Belisle(177.7 IP;5.32 ERA;88 ERA+;43/125 BB/K;111 RA)
ZiPs:(114 IP;4.89 ERA;30/73 BB/K;68 RA)
Gary Majewski(23 IP;8.22 ERA;57 ERA+;3/10 BB/K;22 RA)
ZiPs:(75 IP;4.68 ERA;30/44 BB/K;42 RA)
Bill Bray(14.3 IP;6.28 ERA;74 ERA+;5/14 BB/K;10 RA)
ZiPs:(55 IP;4.41 ERA;16/41 BB/K;29 RA)

Horrid, horrible, horrendous, all perfectly applicable adjectives for describing the bottom of the Reds bullpen.  Add that to the fact the not one member of this group seems likely to step forward and give the Reds the third reliable option they need to contend.  In fact, only Jared Burton has any upside at all, and his track record’s thinner than ballpark Budweiser.  Kent Mercker was out of baseball last year, and Mike Lincoln hasn’t pitched sinced 2004, and pitched poorly then.  Todd Coffey has been inconsistent his whole career.  Matt Belisle will be starting the season off on the DL.

Lincoln and Mercker are unknown quantities.  Neither played last year, and Lincoln hasn’t pitched in four years.  They both had decent springs, but I have my doubts about their effectiveness.  I don’t expect either of them to last till the end of May, and Lincoln will likely be replaced by Belisle when he returns.  If the Reds don’t get hurt by them, they’ll be happy.

Todd Coffey was as bad last year as he was good the year before.  His peripherals suggest a mediocre, but non-horrible pitcher, and it seems likely that he’ll be that this year.  Still, that ZiPs projection is far from a worst case scenario.  Just another data point about middle relief unpredictability.

Jared Burton burst onto the scene last year and was a very effective reliever.  He’s not pitched much in the minors, but was excellent in his short time last year.  ZiPs doesn’t like him, and his peripherals are mediocre.  ZiPs projection looks about right for him, but who knows?

Matt Belisle starts the season injured, and is an effectively mediocre pitcher all around.  He’s probably the fifth best starter on the team, and perhaps the best of the bullpen pitchers as well.  Unfortunately, that says less about Belisle than it does the pen.  He’s a below average swingman, but not much more.

Jeremy Affeldt is a free agent signing who had his first success in years with Colorado last year.  ZiPs doesn’t think that its real, and neither do I.  Again, the peripherals tell the tale, and they say, “Mediocrity!” Mediocrity is always just a step away from, “Dear god my eyes!” and that goes for all these pitchers, not just Affeldt.  Luckily, they set aside the idea of Affeldt starting, thus limiting his mediocrity to less innings.

Gary Majewski was one of the keys to the Kearns trade, and immediately came up lame.  Krivsky’s failure to give him a physical makes no sense at all.  Unless Krivsky thought he was getting a steal and feared Trader Jim would change his mind.  Majewski projects to mediocrity, but actually has a bit of upside.  In the minors now, I expect him to pitch for the big club at some point, after other options have flamed out.

Bill Bray’s a talented left hander who has been injured.  I’m beginning to see a trend.  Probably the most talent non-closer for the club, I expect him to eventually be the clubs third best reliever.  For now, he’s in the minors, wasting away behind dreck like Mercker.

After all of Krivsky’s planning, the pen is still a problem.  He signed a good closer, but the Reds bullpen pitched 509 innings (with closer and set-up man) laster year, and this year only about 120 of them project to be above average.  The back end of the bullpen is one of the reasons I just can’t see this club contending for the division title.  Its a wasteland, and some of this bullpen dreck will end up in the rotation.  Hopefully, the spot starters will be Belisle and prospects and Homer Bailey, but after that, the spot starters go farther down in quality (looking at you, Bobby Livingston). (220 RA, 376 IP)

Setup:
Dave Weathers(77.7 IP;3.59 ERA;130 ERA+;27/48 BB/K;33 RA)
ZiPs:(68 IP;3.84 ERA;26/46 BB/K;31 RA)

A bright spot in the pen, no way!  Stormy Weathers is the picture of consistency, and that’s incredibly valuable in a pen like this.  There’s also a severe chance of overuse.  He pitched 77 innings in the protected closer role.  As a setup guy, he could be pushing that mark by July, which would not bode well for the second half.  A say he pitches at least 80 innings this year,with it likely getting closer to 90, and as a result puts up an ERA closer to 4.00.  (36 RA;80 IP)

Closer:
Francisco Cordero(63.3 IP;2.98 ERA;150 ERA+;18/86 BB/K;18 RA)
ZiPs:(70 IP;3.34 ERA;27/80 BB/K;27 RA)

Cordero is an elite reliever.  He also projects as throwing just 14% of the BULLPEN’s innings.  Cordero makes the pen better, and it also shifts Weathers down to soak up some more innings, even if it does make Stormy less effective.  Still, this is one of the strongest closers in the division, with only Marmol and perhaps Valverde being his equal.  I expect him to be better than that projection, though in less innings.  (20 RA;65 IP)(748 RA;1450 IP)

Farm System:
Homer Bailey(45 IP;5.76 ERA;81 ERA+;28/28 BB/K;32 RA)
ZiPs:(132 IP;4.91 ERA;68/105 BB/K;79 RA)

One of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and once considered the equal of Phillip Hughes, Bailey struggled in his big league debut, showing an extreme lack of command while not striking anyone out.  Still, Bailey impressed in the minors, which is where he’ll start the season.  With prospect hounds switching over to Cueto, the pressures off Bailey, so this may be his time to shine.  I don’t expect him to get 132 IP in the majors unless somethings gone wrong, or Bailey just dominates AAA.  If Bailey dominates in AAA and takes over a rotation spot in mid-June from Fogg, take twenty runs off that RA figure above.  If he takes Volquez or Cueto’s spot, it changes nothing in the RA projection.

Manager:
Dusty Baker(1162-1041 .527 Win%; 66-96 in last year with Chicago)
Predicted Win Total(84-79;.517 Win%;774 RS/748 RA)

Its hard to judge the contribution of a manager.  Its doubtful that a great manager or a horrific manager contributes more than 2 or 3 games either way in the standings.  Now if a manager shreds an arm, it impacts future standings, but for the current season, its pretty neutral.  Baker is one of the more controversial managers here on BBTF, despite his sterling record, due to his management of the Cubs.  Its hard to say whether or not Baker really shredded the arms of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, but his heavy usage couldn’t have helped.  He now comes to a new system with a pair of prized pitching prospects, and a workhorse ace.  Baker tends to get good work out of his young arms, but it remains to be seen if Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey can survive.  His other test comes in the forms of Votto, Bruce, and Encarnacion.  As good a work as Baker gets from his young arms, he remains leary of young player prospects, possibly from his association with the noted ephebiphobic Brian Sabean.  Perhaps its from his experience with fire-tested veteran disappointment Corey Patterson.  I will say this:  if Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey thrive, I think a lot of credit will go to Baker.  If Votto or Bruce rides the pine, derision will belong to Baker.

This Reds team looks like a winner even with its nightmare pretending to be a bullpen.  If Baker can come up with a couple of reliable arms back there, it could be worth a couple more wins.  Even with those wins, its hard to see them sneaking past an improved Cubs team and a strong Brewers team without contributions from Bailey and Bruce.  If Bruce and Bailey come up in May and hit their max potential, they could be worth two or three more wins above what they have.  Get you baseline wins up to 88 or 89, and it just takes a couple of breaks to grab a post season seat.  Still, I don’t think this is the year for the Reds.  And with both Dunn and Griffey free agents at the end of the season, the future may not be next year either.  Baker’s really only a distracting move for the real management conundrum coming up.  This year will be the make or break year for Wayne Krivsky.  His complete inability to build a bullpen (despite trading a young core player to try) is a killer.  If he can’t bring back Dunn, the Reds may find themselves shunting into a new rebuilding cycle with this season as the high point.  And rebuilding cycles without any success rarely spell good news for management.

Special thanks Dan Szymborski for his ZiPs projection system, and Sean Foreman’s Baseball-Reference, without whom this preview would never have gotten done.  Any flaws in the preview are personal flaws of the author’s.  If you disagree with the preview, you are probably right.  If you bet money based on the preview, may God have mercy on your soul.  If you have any itching, swelling, or uncomfortable rashes after reading the preview, please do not sit next to me on the bus.  Any humor found in preview is purely coincidental.  Thanks for reading!