Looking Forward to 2008: Cleveland Indians

If this year’s version of the Cleveland Indians looks familiar, that’s because it is.  As the rest of the contenders in the American League Central completely overhauled their rosters, Mark Shapiro was content to add a utilityman here and a relief pitcher there while keeping the core of the team intact.  It’s a strong core; the Tribe boasts the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner (C.C. Sabathia), a second starting pitcher (Fausto Carmona) that was every bit as good as Sabathia in 2007, one of the best center fielders in baseball (Grady Sizemore), and a catcher (Victor Martinez) who puts up .300/.375/.475 seasons like clockwork.  Indeed, that core of players took the 2007 Cleveland Indians to the brink of the World Series.

The optimist will look at this team and point out that it won 96 games and a division title last season while getting no contribution whatsoever from second base (.639 OPS), left field (.719 OPS), and right field (.760 OPS).  The optimist will also point out that the 2007 Indians tied for the best record in baseball despite getting nearly 30 starts from Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers with a combined ERA of 6.34.  If and when these trouble spots move towards the mean, the team could pick up a half-dozen wins.

The pessimist - also known as the “Native Clevelander” - will wonder what happened to the Travis Hafner that dominated the American League in 2005 and 2006, look at Paul Byrd’s miniscule and shrinking strikeout rate, worry about having a closer who had an ERA over 5.00 last season, and see that the front office has done absolutely nothing to upgrade the offense in the outfield corners.  These are causes for concern in Cleveland, and could lead to a long season at The Prog if they don’t improve.

As always, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.  Several of the problems that plagued the 2007 Indians will vanish in 2008.  A number of the strengths of the 2007 Indians will become weaknesses in 2008.  It may go without saying, but success in 2008 will ultimately depend upon keeping the weaknesses to a minimum.  The front office has not been blessed with the nine-figure salary budget that most of their competition has, and as a result will have many fewer options if Hafner struggles, the corner outfielders fail to hit, the bullpen implodes, or any other calamity befalls the Tribe.

Catcher

There’s very little to say about Victor Martinez that hasn’t been said before.  The man is a hitting machine, having hit .300 with power and patience in each of the last three seasons.  What sets Martinez apart from other star catchers is his durability.  Since becoming a regular in 2004, Victor has averaged 147 games played per season.  Versatility has been a key in keeping Martinez’s bat in the lineup, as he’s able to move to first base once a week.  There was a time when it was assumed that Martinez would eventually leave the tools of ignorance behind and become a full-time first baseman.  Those whispers have hushed considerably over the past couple of years, as Victor has worked tirelessly to become a better defensive catcher.  He’s still not a threat to win a Gold Glove - largely because his reputation lags years behind his improvement - but from 2006 to 2007, he more than doubled the percentage of opposing base stealers thrown out.  Martinez is quick behind the plate and in control calling a game; it’s not very often you see a pitcher shake him off.

Meanwhile, Kelly Shoppach reprises his Backup Catcher Extraordinaire role.  Shoppach has turned into the best player Cleveland received in the much-ballyhooed Coco Crisp two winters ago.  He’s got a strong arm and good power, and would be an improvement at starting catcher for many of the teams across the majors.  As it stands, Shoppach will serve as Paul Byrd’s personal caddy and get an occasional start behind the plate when Martinez needs a day off.

First Base

For the first time in his career, Ryan F. Garko went into spring training with a major league job.  First base is all his, and while his presence provides for consistency, stability and a solid bat, Garko is more a complimentary player than the sort of guy who’s going to push a team towards a championship.  His 2007 season (.289/.359/.483, 121 OPS+) was slightly better than average offensively for a first baseman, but his glovework leaves something to be desired.  On one hand, it’s easy to look at a player like Garko and dismiss him as a placeholder, a guy who will perform as an average player for a few years.  On the other hand, apart from Jim Thome, he’s very likely to become the best multi-year starter the Indians have had at first base since the early days of the Mike Hargrove era.  If that’s damning with faint praise, it certainly beats the Willie Upshaw, Pete O’Brien, and Keith Hernandez eras.

A plethora of players will back up at first.  Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, and Travis Hafner could all see playing time on the right side of the infield.

Second Base

In 2007, the Indians entered the season with a young second baseman coming off an impressive rookie year, albeit one with a few red flags.  This year, they enter the season with a different young second baseman who’s coming off an impressive rookie year, albeit one with a few red flags.  Asdrubal Cabrera will hope to avoid the cliff that felled Josh Barfield, and there’s reason to believe he can do just that.  Many of Barfield’s problems in 2007 came because of a failure to control the strike zone.  His 37 unintentional walks in 1022 career plate appearances and 4.6-to-1 strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio indicate a player who went up to the plate hacking.

Cabrera, meanwhile, was unintentionally walked 17 times in 186 plate appearances last season with a 1.7 K/BB ratio.  This doesn’t appear to be a sample size issue; the 21-year-old had 47 walks and 50 strikeouts in 105 minor league games in 2007.  If he continues to show that kind of judgment at the plate, Cabrera is likely to succeed where Barfield failed.

One reason for concern in Cabrera’s case is that it’s unclear that 2007 is his real level of ability.  In fact, it’s unclear what his real level of ability actually is.  His previous organization (Seattle) pushed him through the minors at a ridiculous pace that saw him spend his entire age 20 season in Triple-A.  Is a .659 OPS and 2.8 K/BB ratio good for a 20-year-old in AAA ball?  There are so few examples of players being pushed like this that it’s difficult to really know.  Two things that are clear about Cabrera:  His glovework is terrific - good enough that he could play an above average shortstop if need be, and that he took a major step forward with the bat in 2007.

Because he has a minor league option left, Barfield will begin the season in Buffalo.  The backup second base/utility infielder role will be manned by Jamey Carroll, the biggest only position player acquisition the Indians made over the offseason.  Carroll will do exactly the sorts of things utility infielders do:  Play a decent second and third base, a passable but not very good shortstop, occasionally fill in as a backup outfielder, get on base at a league-average rate, hit for no power, and be a likeable guy in the clubhouse.  On the surface there’s not much here that separates Carroll from roster fodder like Joe Inglett, who the team waived last season, but the Indians like Carroll enough that they were willing to take on a nondescript 34-year-old utilityman making more than $2 million this season.  That says something.  I’m not sure what.

Third Base

Either Andy Marte will be the Indians’ third baseman or he won’t.

That’s obvious, of course, but the point is that this is the season we find out whether Marte is a part of the long-term plan in Cleveland.  Once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, Marte has become a longshot to even be a starting major league third baseman.  With no options left, he’s likely to make the Opening Day roster, but how long can the Tribe continue to carry a player with no defensive versatility who has failed every big league test?  The Brandon Phillips imbroglio has made the front office reluctant to dump Marte, but they may eventually have to do so.

Marte’s utter failure to establish himself as a big league ballplayer means that once again Casey Blake will get the call as the starter at the hot corner.  Utterly average in virtually every aspect of the game, Blake is a useful guy to have around.  He’s not a good defensive player, but he’s not Ryan Braun either.  He’s no threat to win a home run championship, but he’ll pop 20 home runs a year.  He won’t win a batting title, but he’ll hit .270.  Need him to move to right field?  He’ll do it, and it may be an adventure for a few months, but he’ll eventually turn himself into a pretty decent defender.  When everything is falling apart (for example, the entire 2006 season), you’ll find Casey Blake doing what he does: A little bit of everything fairly well.  There’s a lot of value in this kind of player, but at age 34, the cliff is looming and it’s unclear how long Blake can continue to be the kind of player he’s been for the last five years.

Marte and Jamey Carroll will also see playing time at third base.

Shortstop

If Casey Blake is Mr. Consistency, Jhonny Peralta is the anti-Blake.  In the last three seasons, he’s had one great year (2005), one horrific year (2006), and one pretty decent year (2007).  It’s likely that offensively, the “pretty decent” Peralta is the one to expect going forward.  It’s unclear whether that sort of offensive output (.270/.340/430) will be enough to carry Peralta’s subpar glove at short in the long term.  The Indians have been said to be considering moving Peralta to third base for years now, and with free agency for Casey Blake looming at the end of the season, 2008 could be Jhonny’s last hurrah at shortstop.

If and when Peralta does move to third base, Asdrubal Cabrera would likely slide over to shortstop, opening up second base for Josh Barfield.  In the meantime, Cabrera and Carroll will provide backup options at short.

Left Field

It seemed like such a good idea at the time.  Righty-masher David Dellucci would take over the bulk of the at-bats in a left field platoon with lefty-killer Jason Michaels.  But when Dellucci blew out his hamstring last June, left field turned into a disaster for the 2007 Tribe.  After a month of watching Michaels put up a .271/.307/.357 line as the everyday left fielder, the Indians thankfully gave up on the idea of him as an everyday option, trading for prodigal son Kenny Lofton on July 27.  Lofton was only marginally more effective than Michaels and Dellucci the rest of the way, hitting .283/.344/.370 as an Indian before leaving as a free agent at the end of the season.

It’s back to Plan A in 2008: A Michaels/Dellucci platoon.  Things in left field can’t possibly get worse than they were in 2007, and could potentially get much better if both players can stay healthy.  If one gets injured, though, Plan A could once again force Indians fans to consider Option J.

Center Field

Two words:  Grady Sizemore.  70 extra-base hits as a 22-year-old, 90 extra-base hits and 134 runs as a 23-year-old, 101 walks and 33 stolen bases as a 24-year old.  There are few players in baseball as valuable as Sizemore.  He plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, runs well, hits for power, hits for average, and draws a ton of walks.  Sizemore hasn’t missed a game since August 25, 2005.

There really isn’t a whole lot wrong with Sizemore’s game.  Two nits that get picked from time to time:  Sizemore strikes out a ton (308 whiffs over the past two seasons) and he has a weak outfield arm.  Still, Grady Sizemore is an phenomenal ballplayer, the single most important and irreplaceable player on the Cleveland Indians.

Right Field

Hey, it’s Franklin, coming over to play.  Growing a little every day.  Franklin Gutierrez took over the starting job in right field last season after Trot Nixon bombed.  Gutierrez played reasonably well, putting up a .266/.318/.472 line with surprisingly good power and wonderful defense in right.  There are red flags by the bushelful going forward, though.  Gutierrez hit home runs on 16% of his fly balls, a rate similar to that of feared sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero and David Ortiz, and nearly six times higher than his rate in 2006.  This is almost certainly going to regress in 2008.  He struck out 77 times in 271 at-bats, a worrisome rate for a player who has never had a firm grasp on the strike zone.  Another major red flag: In a surprisingly good season in which Gutierrez played much better than anybody could have reasonably expected, he on-based .318.

If Gutierrez fails to deliver in 2008, there are precious few options elsewhere in the organization.  Ben Francisco is a fourth-outfielder type, a doubles guy with good speed who can play center field, but not necessarily somebody you’d want to be an everyday corner outfielder on a championship team.  Shin-Soo Choo is a similar player to Francisco who’s coming off a major elbow injury, can’t hit left-handed pitching, and didn’t hit at all in AAA last year.  Former first-rounder Brad Snyder is the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster, strikes out a ton, and hasn’t hit 20 home runs or above .270 against minor-league pitching since 2005.

In the event that right field turns into a complete trainwreck, Casey Blake could once again save the day, moving back to the outfield.  Should that happen, either Andy Marte would play third base or Josh Barfield would play second, sliding Cabrera and Peralta one position to their right.

Designated Hitter

The Indians owe Travis Hafner nearly $60 million between now and 2013, so they’re certainly hoping last year’s collapse was just a temporary blip on the Pronk’s career.  In 2005 and 2006, Hafner was one of the most feared hitters led the American League in OPS+.  In 2007, he slugged .451, which put him in the slugging percentage neighborhood of Placido Polanco and Mark Ellis instead of David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero.  Somewhere along the way, something fundamentally changed about the way Hafner hits a baseball.  His ground ball rate skyrocketed from 38.6 percent to 47.8 percent, his infield fly rate doubled, his fly ball rate was a career low, and his ground ball/fly ball ratio was by far a career high.  With his (nonexistant) speed and (prodigious) power, Hafner absolutely has to get the ball up in the air in order to succeed.  This is something to keep an eye on as 2008 unfolds.

Starting Pitcher

The front end of the rotation is as good as it gets in baseball.  The back end is full of question marks.  C.C. Sabathia anchors the rotation coming off his first completely healthy season since 2001, and not coincidentally, his first career Cy Young Award.  The hefty lefty turned the corner with both his health and his command last season, averaging just 1.4 walks per nine innings to go along with his 209 strikeouts.  Manager Eric Wedge has ridden Sabathia hard for several years, and C.C. finally wore down a bit last October, allowing 15 runs in 15.1 postseason innings.

Fausto Carmona was a revelation in 2007, and became the other half of Cleveland’s double-headed ace monster.  After a disastrous 2006 season which saw him moved from the starting rotation to middle relief to closer and back to the rotation, Carmona settled in as a starter and dominated the American League.  Fausto throws a mid-90s sinking fastball that’s virtually impossible to hit in the air.  He led the league with a 64.3 ground ball percentage, second in the majors to Derek Lowe.  It’s amazing to think how well Carmona pitched in 2007 when you consider the mediocre infield defense behind him.  Apart from 50 games of Asdrubal Cabrera, every regular infielder on the team last season was below-average defensively.  If Marte can eventually win the third base job, or if Peralta and Cabrera get shifted to third base and shortstop respecively, Carmona could benefit immensely from improved infield defense.

But that’s nothing compared to how Jake Westbrook would benefit from good gloves behind him.  Westbrook is nearly as extreme a groundballer as Carmona, but doesn’t strike out nearly as many hitters.  Jake’s 53.5% ground ball rate would have been fifth in the American League, had he qualified for the leaderboards.  Westbrook will bring more of the same in 2008: Better-than-league-average pitching, a ton of ground balls, and the potential to be a whole lot better if he had some gloves back there behind him.

Paul Byrd begins the season as the fourth starter.  As APV points out over at Let’s Go Tribe (http://letsgotribe.com/story/2008/3/19/21519/0798 ), Byrd has lost nearly 2 MPH off of his fastball over the last two seasons and now has a changeup that’s only 6 MPH slower than his fastball.  His strikeout rate has declined in each of the past three seasons, he doesn’t induce ground balls, and he gives up a ton of line drives.  (Byrd had a 21.2% line drive rate last year, third highest in the American League.) None of this leads me to expect a good season from Byrd.  At some point, all those line drives and fly balls are going to become a major problem.

With a strong spring, Cliff Lee is the fifth starter.  Last season, Lee fought with his catcher, sarcastically tipped his cap to the fans, pitched miserably, and got a chance to get reacquainted with the city of Buffalo.  Speculation was rampant that he wouldn’t return to the Indians in 2008, but Lee has come to camp ready to compete and won a job.  That’s the good news for Lee.  The bad news is that his strikeout rate has from 8.1 per 9 innings in 2004 to 6.1 last year, his home run rate is sky-high, and his control isn’t particularly great.  Lee has the potential to be a major contributor in Cleveland this season, but he needs to reverse some alarming trends in his rate stats.

Should any of the Opening Day rotation falter, the Indians have plenty of other options in the organization.  Aaron Laffey ended last season as the fifth starter and pitched well in that role.  Laffey’s a left-handed version of Jake Westbrook, an extreme groundballer with good control and a fastball that sits in the high 80s.  There’s not a ton of upside with Laffey, but he’s perhaps the safest option among the lower-tier starters.  He’ll open the season in Buffalo.

Jeremy Sowers will also start the season as a Bison.  After a remarkable debut season in 2006, Sowers lost some velocity and command in 2007 and, predictably, got absolutely pounded.  The word out of Winter Haven is that Sowers has regained his missing velocity and then some, but the Tribe is taking a wait-and-see approach before giving the left-hander a job in the major leagues.

Relief Pitcher

Inertia can be difficult to overcome.  In some cases, this is a good thing.  It’s a good thing if your name is Joe Borowski.  Despite being the sixth-most effective reliever on the team last year, Borowski retains his job as closer mostly because he was the closer in 2007.  Borowski saved 45 games last season despite a 5.07 ERA and a ridiculously high (21.0%) line-drive rate.  Defense-independent pitching stats say Borowski was unlucky last season, but most of those liners are going to become hits.  If JoeBo doesn’t start fooling people, the runs will continue to pile up.

A converted infielder, Rafael Betancourt has become one of the best relief pitchers in baseball.  Betancourt relies on a straight-as-a-string fastball that he can move around the strike zone with pinpoint accuracy.  Betancourt had just six unintentional walks last season to go along with 80 strikeouts in 79.1 innings.  Should Borowski stumble, Betancourt would presumably be next in line for the closer job, but Raffy has been hugely valuable as a setup man.

The other Rafael has also made quite an impact on the Cleveland bullpen.  A lefty fastball-slider guy, Rafael Perez throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park.  He’s unlikely to put up another sub-2.00 ERA this year, but Perez will once again be a valuable contributor as a bridge between the starters and Betancourt.

Former Chiba Lotte Marines closer Masahide Kobayashi joins the Tribe this year on a two-year deal worth more than $6 million.  The jury is out on what kind of success Kobayashi will have in MLB, but his Pacific League numbers seem to indicate a guy who throws strikes and doesn’t blow people away.  Early reports on Kobayashi have been positive, and with the success pitchers like Akinori Otsuka and Hideki Okajima have had in their major league debuts, the Indians’ new Japanese import could be a nice addition to an already-strong bullpen.

Speaking of nice additions to already-strong bullpens, Jensen Lewis came completely out of nowhere last season to claim a spot as a key contributor in the pen.  Lewis doesn’t throw particularly hard - his fastball tops out around 90 MPH - but he gets a ton of strikeouts because he has a bizarre delivery that hides the ball well.  An added benefit of having Jensen Lewis on the team is that it’s unbelievably fun to watch the guy pitch.  I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

On the “job longevity” leaderboard, Indians LOOGY ranks right up there with early 80’s Soviet General Secretary.  No pitcher has kept the job for two full seasons since Ricardo Rincon in 2000-2001.  Since then, Tribe fans have been treated to Rincon/Carl Sadler (2002), Sadler/Billy Traber/Alex Herrera/nobody (2003), Cliff Bartosh (2004), Scott Sauerbeck (2005), Sauerbeck/Rafael Perez/Juan Lara (2006), and Aaron Fultz (2007).  As such, it shouldn’t have been much of a surprise when the Indians announced Fultz would not be a member of the team in 2008.  If they can’t find a sucker trade partner, they’ll have to eat the $1.5 million remaining on his contract.  Fultz was fairly effective in 2007, but had a miserable Spring Training this year.  The next contestant on “Who Wants To Be A LOOGY” is waiver-bait lefty Craig Breslow, who has a degree in molecular biophysics and biochemistry from Yale University.  Breslow’s education will come in handy at some point in the next 18 months when the Indians tire of him and yearn for a new mediocre LOOGY.

One spot in the Cleveland bullpen is up for grabs.  As of this writing, Tom Mastny, Scott Elarton, and Jorge Julio are duking it out for the right to be the mopup guy.  In theory, Mastny would seem to have a leg up on Elarton and Julio because he’s been consistently adequate over the course of his career.  This is not necessarily the case, though.  Eric Wedge seems to have a good relationship with Elarton dating back to the giant right-hander’s first stint with the Indians in 2004-2005.  The other candidate for the job, Jorge Julio brings Proven Closer Magic to the roster, which can be a difficult trick for managers to see through.

Manager

Solid.  Eric Wedge won’t go down in history as a legendary skipper, but he does his job fairly well, doesn’t get in the way, and puts his guys in a position to succeed.  Wedge’s biggest strength is also his biggest weakness at times: His loyalty and the sense of family he has instilled in the clubhouse.  Wedge is very slow to bench a player who is clearly struggling, and at times seems to value loyalty more than wins.  Aaron Boone’s disastrous two-year run at third base, Josh Barfield’s 2007 season, and Joe Borowski keeping the closer role despite an ERA over 5 all indicate a manager who goes out of his way to give players a chance before jerking them in and out of the lineup.  This can occasionally work to the benefit of the team.

When many managers would have given up on Travis Hafner during a mediocre 2003 season, Wedge stuck with him and Hafner turned into a star.  Some managers would have been gunshy to rely on Fausto Carmona after he utterly fell apart as a closer in 2006, but Wedge stayed the course.  Wedge’s patience can be both a blessing and a curse at times.

Outlook

Good.  Very good.  This is a team that in 2007 had its best offensive player suddenly turn into just another DH, got 444 plate appearances of 54 OPS+ offense from its second baseman, got something between diddly and squat from the corner outfield positions, couldn’t find a fifth starter, and still had the best record in baseball.  There are weaknesses in the 2008 edition of the Cleveland Indians, but with a young and presumably still improving core of position players and a handful of major league-ready pitchers in Buffalo, many of the solutions are in-house.  Best-case scenario, this is a team that could win 100 games and bring the city of Cleveland its first championship in 44 years.  (Indoor soccer doesn’t count, as much as I used to love watching Hector Marinaro and Zoran Karic embarrass defenders.) In the worst-case scenario, Carmona turns back into a pumpkin, Hafner turns into a mediocre albatross, Marte fails to perform, the corner outfielders spend another season not hitting, the bullpen implodes, and Jhonny Peralta turns back into the 2006 version of himself.  That makes this a .500ish ballclub in the worst-realistic-case scenario.  I’ll pencil them in for around 92 wins, and once again Cleveland’s playoff hopes will depend on how the Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox play.