Looking Forward to 2008 - Detroit Tigers
GOING FOR BROKE
2007 In Review
After a spectacular rise in 2006, the 2007 Detroit Tigers were competitive right out of the gate. They held on to first
place from late July to early August and looked very good with the league’s second best offense. They actually were a ½
game up as late as August 14 when the long collapse occurred. The club tumbled to a11-20 record down the stretch. This
dropped the team to disappointing 88 wins, 8 games behind the Cleveland Indians and 6 games behind the Yankees for the Wild
Card.
What Went Right
• Curtis Granderson had a breakout year.
• Magglio Ordonez had career year offensively.
• The offense overall - incredible performances of Tiger stars (Granderson, Polanco, Ordonez, Sheffield and Guillen)
led the team offensively – good for second in the league in runs scored, despite the dead weight of Monroe, Casey and Inge.
What Went Wrong
• IRod continued his offensive decline.
• The club couldn’t find a productive hitter at first base (again), while recent cast-offs Carlos Pena and Dmitri
Young had career years.
• Brandon Inge had an off-year at the plate.
• Pitching: Neither Verlander or Bonderman took the next big step – worse, Bonderman spent the summer getting
pounded. Chad Durbin threw as many innings as Mike Maroth and Kenny Rogers. Rogers was hurt much of the year. The club
slipped from first in the AL in ERA to 8th.
• Craig Monroe was dismal “earning” his release in mid-pennant race.
Projections v. Reality
Below is a chart that shows the 2007 ZIP projections and the 2007 actual performance for key Tigers. Zips did a fine job:
Granderson,Curtis (zips) .267 .340 .438
.302 .361 .552
Guillen,Carlos (zips) .311 .383 .507
.296 .357 .502
Inge,Brandon (zips) .255 .320 .441
.236 .312 .376
Monroe,Craig (zips) .267 .314 .468
.222 .264 .373
Ordonez,Magglio (zips) .290 .341 .462
.363 .434 .595
Polanco,Placido (zips) .307 .349 .405
.341 .388 .458
Rodriguez,Ivan (zips) .289 .319 .436
.281 .294 .420
Sheffield,Gary (zips) .279 .374 .462
.265 .378 .462
Shelton,Chris (zips) .283 .354 .479
---- ---- ----
Thames,Marcus (zips) .242 .317 .474
.242 .278 .498
Bonderman,Jeremy (zips) 3.60
5.01
Verlander,Justin (zips) 3.89
3.66
Maroth,Mike (zips) 4.90
5.06
Robertson,Nate (zips) 4.21
4.76
Rogers,Kenny (zips) 4.14
4.43
The Trade
At the conclusion of the season, the Tigers had clear weaknesses: offensive black holes at first, third and left; rotation
depth; bullpen quality and age. So, in case anyone missed it, the Tigers made two very big deals in the off-season.
First, Dombrowski traded Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria. Then he dealt his top hitting and pitching
prospects Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (both near major league ready) for star third baseman Miguel Cabrera and former
star SP Dontelle Willis. Tigers also included other minor leaguers in that deal. DD also added Jacque Jones as a platoon
partner for Marcus Thames to improve the production in LF over the brutal Craig Monroe.
Together, these deals addressed almost all of the Tigers problems, except for the bullpen. One could argue that rotation
depth is a problem of all teams and what the Tigers need is an Ace. So far several aces have changed teams: Santana, Haren
and Bedard. Would the Tigers have been better off obtaining one of them instead of the bats? Maybe? Would it have been
possible? Maybe, maybe not.
Questions for 2008
Can Bonderman rebound?
In September, he disclosed he had a sore elbow. An MRI came up with nothing. A bit of personal experience here: an MRI
is only as good as the technician doing the procedure and the ability of the person reading the output. It is not unusual
for there to be disagreement over the results of the test. Was he pitching with a bad elbow all year? I am not sanguine on
a return to 2006 form.
Zips
Player Spotlight - Jeremy Bonderman (Assuming his arm isn't shredded)
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.63 16 9 34 34 223 214 90 21 49 200
Mean 4.34 12 10 30 30 197 205 95 23 51 166
Pessimistic (15%) 5.15 9 10 25 25 159 181 91 22 48 122
Will the Bullpen Implode?
The bullpen lacks both quality and depth. In some ways I wonder how this organization can continue to delude itself that
Todd Jones is a valuable closer. Baseball Prospectus notes that Jones has a 47% chance of collapse. The bullpen looks
like: Todd Jones, Yorman Bazardo, Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Jason Grilli, Bobby Seay and Tim Byrdak. That looks like a
pack of 4.50 era guys. No one great and a match to gas in Denny Bautista. OK, when it comes to RP, we have all seen guys
come out of nowhere and have a phenomenal season – maybe Denny could be that guy. But let’s face it when I think of Dennys
I think of two things – Grand Slams followed by the runs.
After missing long stretches of 2007 due to shoulder tendonitis, Fernando Rodney will start the 2008 season on the DL. Joel
Zumaya is “hoping” to return by July. Jordan Tata went Doyle Alexander on a door and broke his knuckle on – of course – his
pitching hand. The Tiger bullpen could be 2006 Cleveland Indians bad.
Can Dombrowski Pull Off Another Deal?
Bullpen help could come at the cost of Marcus Thames or Brandon Inge. The Tigers have “replacements” for them both in Brent
Clevlen and Ramon Santiago. Tigers manager Jim Leyland said there's a "strong possibility" Brandon Inge will get traded.
Inge lost his job at third base to Miguel Cabrera, and has publicly voiced his displeasure at being relegated to a reserve
role.
In the minors there are no real trading chits left - Brent Clevlen may turn it around. His last good year was as a 21 year
old in the Florida State League. He has had two consecutive unimpressive years at AA and AAA. He will be 24 this year and
a strong start in AAA could help the team. He is reputed as a very strong defensive outfielder, so he may stick with the
club as a 5th OF. That could hurt his development as he really needs to hit everyday.
Is Granderson For Real?
Granderson far exceeded his Zips (and every other prediction). His OPS+ of 136 was the best of his professional career. He
did this by hitting like Ty Cobb against right-handers (.337/393/.621) and Paul Zuevella against lefties (.160/.225/.269).
Here’s what zips has to say:
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .297 .374 .534 162 612 121 182 37 15 26 118 70 141 20 0
Mean .278 .345 .475 161 608 104 169 31 13 21 87 58 153 14 3
Pessimistic (15%) .256 .314 .429 153 578 85 148 27 11 17 80 47 157 8 4
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Vada Pinson, Lloyd Moseby
However, the correct answer (from a Tiger fan) is: Yes, Curtis Granderson is for real. He’s also a super nice guy and I am
thrilled the Tigers signed him up for 5 more years.
Attendance
Three million. Three million. That’s a new attendance record bettering the old mark set in 1984 by three hundred thousand
– that was good for the third best in the AL. Season tickets sales for the 2008 season were so hot, the team had to cut off
sales. The Tigers put another data point in the argument that winning puts fannies in the seats.
Some Numbers
Year Record Pythagorean RS RS-Rank RA RA- Rank Attendance Rank
1996 53-109 56-106 783 11 1103 14 1.2 13
1997 79-83 80-82 784 8 790 5 1.4 13
1998 65-97 68-94 722 12 863 10 1.4 11
1999 69-92 69-93 747 12 882 13 2.0 9
2000 79-83 81-81 823 10 827 6 2.4 7
2001 66-96 67-95 724 11 876 12 1.9 9
2002 55-106 52-109 575 14 864 11 1.5 12
2003 43-119 49-113 591 14 928 13 1.4 13
2004 72-90 79-83 827 8 844 12 1.9 9
2005 71-91 75-87 723 11 787 8 2.0 10
2006 95-67 95-67 822 5 675 1 2.6 5
2007 88-74 89-73 887 2 797 9 3.0 3
Record by Month
Year March/April May June July August Sept/Oct
2001 8-15 14-13 10-17 14-13 9-20 11-18
2002 8-17 12-15 7-20 13-14 10-19 5-21
2003 3-21 11-18 5-22 9-17 6-23 9-18
2004 12-11 11-16 14-12 13-15 11-17 11-19
2005 11-11 12-15 13-13 14-15 13-13 8-24
2006 16-9 19-9 20-7 15-10 13-16 12-16
2007 14-8 16-12 16-10 15-12 11-18 16-11
Tot 72-92 95-98 85-101 93-96 73-126 72-127
For the first time since 1999 the Tigers posted a winning record for the month of September. For the 7th straight year they
failed to post a winning record in August. Having a losing record when you are a bad team is not remarkable. It may be a
concern when the 2006-07 Tigers have had second half slides.
On the Farm
This won't take long. The farm system is bare. According to Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook, it ranks second to last
among all teams. Going for broke? You bet all bullets are in the chamber and there is little help on the farm that could
help the club in 2008.
#1 prospect is Rick Porcello. When your top prospect has yet to play an inning for your organization, you either have a
phenomenal draft pick or a weak system. In this case it is both. According to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook,
Porcello was considered the best high school pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, but signability caused him to drop to the
Tigers with the 27th pick. He'll start the year in A ball – and in history is any indicator – will be pitching for Detroit
in August.
#2 prospect Cale (son Garth) Iorg is a 22 year old short-stop who took two years off for his Mormon mission and has a .241
average in 29 minor league at bats.
#3 prospect is Scott Sizemore. He is a 23 year old second baseman who hit .265 in low A ball.
#6 is Jeff Larish. He is a 25 year old first baseman who hit 28 home runs in AA.
Around the Horn:
Infield: Guillen, Polanco, Renteria, Cabrera: This unit should score some runs. Cabrera (fat or in shape) will be a
significant upgrade over Inge.
Outfield & DH: Jones/Thames (or Clevlen), Granderson, Ordonez. If Thames is dealt, the trio is susceptible to lefties.
Leyland gave Raburn some time in CF last year, but it is tough to platoon your star in the first year of his contract (ask
Billy Martin). Sheffield will hit.
Rotation: Verlander, Bonderman, Rogers, Willis, Robertson. The rotation is as reliable as any teams coming out of Spring
training. The hope that Verlander and Bonderman take the next step forward is offset by Kenny Rogers’ age (BP has him with
a 51% chance of collapse) and Dontrelle (What you talkin’ ‘bout?) Willis’ poor 2007.
Bullpen: See above.
Catcher: Rodriguez is closing in on some serious career milestones with 2495 hits and 288 HRs. If he goes down, the Tigers
will be like every other major league team that loses their starting catcher.
Key Zips
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG AB H 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS
Miguel Cabrera 3b 25 .318 .407 .559 601 191 42 2 33 86 105 4 2
Magglio Ordonez rf 34 .309 .366 .481 476 147 31 0 17 43 64 0 2
Marcus Thames lf 31 .261 .329 .534 283 74 15 1 20 27 75 1 1
Carlos Guillen# 1b 31 .296 .359 .471 476 141 28 5 15 46 75 10 6
Gary Sheffield rf 39 .269 .366 .438 320 86 12 0 14 45 46 8 2
Curtis Granderson* cf 27 .278 .345 .475 608 169 31 13 21 58 153 14 3
Ryan Raburn cf 27 .269 .344 .466 494 133 28 3 21 53 118 11 4
Placido Polanco 2b 32 .317 .358 .419 499 158 26 2 7 24 26 4 2
Edgar Renteria ss 32 .287 .349 .395 547 157 27 1 10 51 85 9 4
Jacque Jones* rf 33 .267 .322 .390 415 111 19 1 10 30 74 5 2
Brandon Inge 3b 31 .246 .319 .400 528 130 27 3 16 50 130 5 4
Jeffrey Larish* 1b 25 .224 .316 .387 478 107 25 1 17 57 125 5 4
Ivan Rodriguez c 36 .276 .296 .400 445 123 27 2 8 12 77 4 3
Ramon Santiago# ss 28 .244 .293 .335 349 85 16 2 4 19 55 9 5
Brent Clevlen cf 24 .214 .284 .326 420 90 16 2 9 41 153 5 3
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Justin Verlander 25 3.76 15 8 30 30 189.0 182 79 20 53 156
Jeremy Bonderman 25 4.34 12 10 30 30 197.0 205 95 23 51 166
Dontrelle Willis* 26 4.34 14 13 35 35 224.0 241 108 23 77 162
Kenny Rogers* 43 4.11 9 6 21 21 127.0 131 58 13 42 61
Nate Robertson* 30 4.45 12 11 30 30 186.0 197 92 22 60 116
Joel Zumaya 23 3.53 7 3 61 0 74.0 62 29 8 38 73
Todd Jones 40 3.75 4 2 59 0 60.0 62 25 4 15 32
Fernando Rodney 31 3.86 5 3 52 0 56.0 51 24 7 24 53
Bobby Seay* 30 3.94 2 1 51 0 48.0 47 21 4 17 33
Jason Grilli 31 4.31 4 3 54 0 71.0 72 34 7 28 50
Tim Byrdak* 34 4.59 2 1 48 0 49.0 46 25 6 27 49
Zach Miner 26 4.76 8 8 42 20 140.0 151 74 14 63 80
Denny Bautista 27 4.91 5 5 40 12 88.0 92 48 7 53 61
Yorman Bazardo 23 5.04 8 9 32 25 159.0 178 89 18 53 69
LOOKING FORWARD 2008 TIGERS
This team is built to win in 2008 and should do so. The Indians seem like the only team standing in their way of a
divisional title. If not, they have as good a shot at the Wild Card as any team.
Victor Illonardo
Posted: March 27, 2008 at 06:35 PM |
23 comment(s)
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- Granderson was hit on the right hand and will start the year on the DL. He'll be out 2-3 weeks with Inge taking over in CF.
- Dontrelle Willis is getting bombed this Spring
The Tigers are going to be willing to spend money, if they need stopgaps in between the older players and whoever Dombroski drafts then we will attempt to get them. Pudge's deal comes off the books after this season, as will Inge's I do believe (if he is traded).
The farm system is depressing, but Dombroski was able to build up a terrible farm system as well when he first got to Detroit.
A really good point. Dombrowski thrives via the farm system, whether that is aggressively promoting players or dealing them to help the big club. He is going to use that tool and make decisions. That's one thing I didn't previously note about Dombrowski. He is not afraid of making a decision. In two straight years he dumped "name" players - Monroe and Young in the midst of pennant races. He will make big trades (Cabrera) sign FA for big cash. Right now this is working out for him.
Isn't that how we came up with the nickname "Wrong Hole Buster?
Miguel Cabrera according to RC is almost a 80 run upgrade over Inge. that's huge and that puts them near the Yankee scoring realm . but regression from other players will most likely offset a lot of that. the wildcard here though is Gary Sheffield. if he plays like... well Gary Sheffield and stays relatively healthy they could indeed be the top run scoring team. however. having spent the last two season suffering injury to just about every part of his body (broken wrist in collision in 06, shoulder / knee /oblique problems last year ) and being 39 years old (not to meantion the thing that shall not be named) his contribution isn't something to be counted on. they'll undoubtablly be in the front pack in scoring. but I think the bandwagon on them completely leaving everyone else in the dust seems highly exaggerated.
Miguel is also a big time downgrade at 3rd though (with the glove) that doesn't bode too well with their contact pitchers ( the non-Verlander guys... and to some extend Bonderman)
With all the talk on how the Yankees are going to go with kids and the unreliable nature of young pitchers in general... how in the world is Dontrell Willis and Jeromy Bonderman reliable? hell they're both still technically young pitchers anyway. as is Verlander. Kenny Rogers is now THE oldest SP in the league if i'm not mistaken. and Nate Robertson's simply a decent backend guy.
They have a lot of star power. but there's a lot of questionmarks too. and if something does go wrong (hell how likely is it for a season to go completely right?) their depth is very thin at best.
I think the biggest danger for them is Pudge Rodriguez. he's showing last year screams collapse. ( i mean really, 9 walks? 9 freaking walks?) and if that happens to just about any contender they're screwed (see 06 Bo-Sox)
I do think that the Tigers will be the most disappointing team in the majors, unless Verlander goes 22-4.
In the sense that their are high expectations this is true. This team has a good shot of winning the whole banana. If they win 85 games, fans will be disappointed. But they are trying - they are daring and bold and organized and exciting. On the other hand you have teams like the Pirates, Giants and Orioles who either don't seem to have a clue as to what they are doing or aren't even trying. Those teams will always be greater disappointments than the Tigers. You can't win if you don't try.
the only real question is wether they have enough to get over the hump into the playoff. I think this is a mixed question. both they and Clevland have some questions to answer. I thinkkkk I like Clevland ever so slightly more because of perceived depth. though the difference seems very marginal at best.
That being said, I do like the Tigers more than the Indians. The Tiger "problems" are fixable.
It seems to me that any projection system is predicated on predicting likely outcomes. I don't really know how Zips is calculated, but I guess that the system predicts a player's career path as having a step up, platteu and then step down shape. Some steps may be higher than others, but likely based on "usual" outcomes.
However, some players'careers are more made up of large spikes and valleys. Therefore, out of the ordinary career years like Granderson or Ordonez are very hard to predict. I would hazard to guess that Pecota was off too on these guys.
It would be interesting to get Dan's take on this.
You can't ignore defense. He probably gives 35-40 of those runs right back with the glove. Inge was probably the best defensive 3b in baseball last year, Cabrera the worst.
Victor, this is a bit of a disappointing preview. There's not a lot of depth or analysis here, it it doesn't tell us anything we couldn't have gleaned from one of the several Tigers threads in the last couple months.
And Cabrera is in way better shape this year.
Ok. But cabrera was plenty bad. I don't buy the "best shape of his life" stuff about anyone.
In terms of John Dewan's +/- system: Inge was at +22 second behind Pedro Feliz at +27. Cabrera was -24 ahead of only Garrett Atkins (-29) and Braun (-41!).
Speaking of inconsistency between systems: PECOTA has Cabrera as a +6 in their Fielding Runs Above Average. If I can quote their comment:
Pecota's defensive numbers are widely regarded to be worse than useless. I'm shocked they still publish them.
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