Looking Forward to 2008: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were in first place in the NL West for the whole month of May last year.  They surged over the All-Star Break to gain a two-game lead, and when they beat the Rockies on July 26, they held a 1.5 game lead.  They didn’t need to worry about the trade deadline – they were in first, and should be able to hold on to a fight down the stretch.  The second place team, the Diamondbacks were playing way over their Pythags.  The Padres were hanging around, and the Rockies were 5.5 back, and nary a consideration.  Oops.

But this is the 50th anniversary (ed.) in Los Angeles, and it’s all going to be different.  Right?

The Dodgers were a solid team last year, but really needed someone who could hit home runs, and run the ball down in the outfield.  They went and signed Andruw Jones to a two-year contract.  Andruw had had a terrible season at the plate – well, home plate at least, so there was no doubt that, at his age, he would regress to his mean.  That could mean a 40-50 home run season and lots of RBIs. 
That is the most significant change to the Dodgers, other than not giving Luis Gonzalez 500 PAs.

Well, then there is the addition of Joe Torre.  Torre brings a tremendous resume of joining a team with good players and guiding them to World Series titles.  He’s showing up now on a team with lots of talent.  Can he mold them into champions?

So there is plenty to look forward to – Andruw should be replacing Juan Pierre, so that should improve the offense and defense of a team that had the lead at the trade deadline.  Perhaps in 2008, they can hold on to it.

The 2008 Dodgers should improve.  They have a young solid core with Kemp, Furcal, Martin, Loney and Ethier.  Andruw isn’t old.  Jeff Kent, while old, is a Hall of Fame player, and the decline phase for him is later.  Only third base presents a problem, and if Nomar can keep it together, that issue should be solved.  The pitching staff is solid – at least through the first three slots, and that is usually enough.

Catcher – Russell Martin
Martin is a throwback.  He will catch every game if allowed, and last year caught 145 games.  He continued to hit well through August, but September wasn’t his best.  Too many innings has historically brought catcher careers to an early end.  Martin is a very good hitter, and his bat should continue to shine, and advance some.  He’ll do his part in keeping the Dodgers in the hunt.  It would be nice if he could add more runs to the Dodger tally, but while his rate may increase his playing time is likely to decrease.  Is it an overdose?  No, it’s just too much. 

First Base – James Loney
Loney was going to be a good hitter from day one, and he’s stepped in at a young age.  He posted a 131 OPS+ last year, and he should get 200 more ABs this season.  He also should continue to improve, and that could add twenty runs to the Dodger production.  The other first baseman really hurt the Dodgers last season, and Joe Torre is likely to let Loney play.

Second Base – Jeff Kent
Kent is a Hall of Fame player.  He is remarkably consistent - .295/.370/.500 froma 40-year old second baseman.  If Kent can be a little healthier, and up his at bats, he can add a few more runs to the till.  He’s also capable of having a goofy season.  There is the age issue, and the propensity the last few seasons of missing a few games.  Nonetheless, Kent is going to be a rock while in the lineup, and out-produces most second basemen.  If Chase Utley weren’t around, Kent would still be the standard.

Third Base – Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar is already on the DL.  Worse, though, was the fact he was penciled to play everyday.  Everybody knew he was going to get hurt, and there was also the question of whether or not he’d be able to hit.  Besides, Andy LaRoche is ready to step in here, and if he gets the chance, should be terrific.  Right now it is Blake DeWitt, and he isn’t going to get it done.  Overall, the Dodgers were pretty weak at third base in 2007, so this isn’t going to make them worse.  If LaRoche can get back and get 500 ABs, it could make the Dodgers a good deal better.

Shortstop – Rafael Furcal
Furcal seems like a great player – he’s got a lot of flash at the plate, on the basepaths and with a bazooka arm.  But when you look at what his career numbers look like, there’s nothing like Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez there.  He’s a good, solidly above average shortstop, but he’s not special.  However, he stunk at the plate in 2007, and that means 2008 is going to be better.  His BA should go up at least 10 points and his SLG should rebound about 100 points.  Furcal’s resurgence could add from twenty to forty runs, and that is just getting back to his norms.  If he has a great season, which I am not predicting, he could be sixty runs better.  He’ll likely add thirty runs to the Dodgers ’07 performance.

Left Field – Juan Pierre
These are the saddest of possible words:
“Juan Pierre starting in left”
Trio of slap hits, and fleeter than birds,
Juan Pierre starting in left.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double—
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
“Juan Pierre starting in left.”

Center Field – Andruw Jones
Andruw stunk up 2007 like nobody’s business.  He *has* to bounce back, right?  Maybe.  When he burst on to the scene, he was the heir apparent to Willie Mays.  Then Cesar Cedeno, and now, Ruben Sierra.  He also performed his worst in his walk season, and will get to be held up as the “players turn it on when they are playing for a contract” counterpoint.  Andruw has always been a good centerfielder.  Some think he is the best ever.  Me, not so much.  He *is* better than Juan Pierre.  He should hit more than Juan Pierre did in CF.  But is he the 40-50 HR player the Dodgers thought they bought?  I doubt it.  The holes in Andruw’s swing aren’t new, and while they have patched like the S.S. Minnow from time to time, he cannot keep it afloat.  Will he improve the Dodgers?  Too close to call.  If he bounces back?  Yes, but if he keeps Kemp or Ethier off the field, then no.

Right Field – Matt Kemp
Kemp is another youngster, just 23 this season.  He also stroked the ball in 2007, and in a fashion consistent with his minor league career.  He’s a high average hitter, and blossoming power.  He’s above average already for a corner outfielder, and his career path has a great arc.  If Kemp and Ethier can get Luis Gonzalez’ PAs, they can add twenty or thirty runs to the Dodgers offensive performance.  Kemp looks like he is going to get 300 more, so getting Ethier in the lineup is going to be the challenge.

Bench – Andre Ethier, Delwyn Young, Chin-lung Hu, Gary Bennett
It’s a decent bench.  Ethier should be starting, and it would eventually contain Nomar Garciaparra, so there is some pop off the bench. Having a single middle infield backup is a good contruction, and Young can switch hit.  The Dodgers starting 8 should be strong enough not to rely on too much playing time from this group. 

Rotation – Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Esteban Loaiza, Hiroki Kuroda
The back end of the 2007 rotation was just awful.  Brad Penny was great though.  With Penny regressing some, Lowe maintaining his ’07 performance, Billingsley getting more starts and using Kuroda and Loaiza instead of the 350 innings of 85 ERA+ from the #4-5 starters should help a lot down the stretch.
The pitching staff just tweaking up slightly should save about ten runs, because Loaiza and Kuroda aren’t going to be world-beaters, just a little better at bridging from Billingsley back to Penny.  There is going to be some question of Billingsley’s durability.

Bullpen – Takashi Saito, Joe Beimel, Jonathon Broxton, Scott Proctor
Saito has been an elite closer in his first two seasons.  There has to be some concern for his age, but he hasn’t been figured out yet.  His support staff is strong, and the bullpen usage from Torre is the only possible issue.  This group posted terrific ERA+ marks in 2007, so there could be some regression, but over just 400 (or so) innings, this isn’t going to be very many runs.

Help – Andy LaRoche is help, and the rest of the team is young.  The Dodgers are a team that is set well, that if just left to run could start a Braves/Yankees type run at the playoffs.

Results – Last year the Dodgers scored 735 runs and allowed 727.  They landed right on their Pythag.  They added Joe Torre and Andruw Jones, and have cleared the way for their young players to get the playing time they deserve – and they have excellent young players.  With Furcal likely to rebound, and more playing time given to Kemp, Ethier and Loney, the Dodgers should allow about the same in runs, maybe a handful less, say, 720.  The offense however, should score considerably more – at least seventy, and possibly a hundred.  The Dodgers should end up around 89-73, and close to the playoffs.  If things break right, they could jump to 95 wins, but that counts on Andruw and the pitching, and I’m not ready to do that.