Looking Forward to 2008: New York Mets

No team in MLB is looking forward to 2008 as much as the New York Mets are.  Perhaps the 1964 Phillies looked as forward to the 1965 season.  The Phillies at least had the consolation that there was no Wild Card to simultaneously choke their way out of.  The Mets had gone into 2007 after a rough playoff loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in a seven-game NLCS featuring late inning heroics from So Taguchi and Yadier Molina.  The Mets then acquired the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, from the Minnesota Twins for a minimal package.  So the Mets, and their fans, are really looking forward to 2008.

But it isn’t all good times.

Just five days before my birthday, I got an early birthday present: the Mets acquired P Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins for OF Carlos Gomez, P Phil Humber, P Deolis Guerra, and P Kevin Mulvey.
It wasn’t the worst package that could be thought of – Gomez and Humber are certainly pretty good prospects.  Nonetheless, taking the Mets team that has won 165 games the last two seasons and replacing a 40-year old *done* Tom Glavine with Johan Santana makes the Mets the team to beat in the National League East.  As long as the other teams don’t improve significantly more, or they don’t fall off the map anywhere else.

The other big trade for the Mets was sending their other good prospect Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.  This was not a good trade in the eyes of many fans.  Milledge was clearly being sent out because he was a little too, er, loose with his enthusiasm.  Randolph was unhappy with Milledge’s lack of old-school decorum, and he let him know it. 
There was another deal that caused Mets fans to celebrate – Guillermo Mota was sent packing.  Good riddance to bad rubbish.

The 2008 Mets should improve.  Roughly, Carlos Delgado will be “about the same”, which isn’t great, but passable.  Luis Castillo will be “about the same”, which isn’t great, but passable.  David Wright and Jose Reyes should continue to improve, as they enter their peak phases.  Carlos Beltran is at a great level and he should repeat 2007.  The questions really come up at the corner outfielders and catcher.

Catcher – Last year the Mets ran Paul Lo Duca (yes, that’s two words) out there.  Lo Duca was a poor defensive catcher, a dn the acquisition of Schneider is going to improve on that considerably.  Offensively, Schneider is four years younger but has never really hit as much as Lo Duca might.  He is going to hit about what Lo Duca did in 2007, and hopefully provide a handful of runs defensively to make the change a net positive.  If Schneider approaches an OPS+ of 90, it’ll be a big improvement.  He’ll be hitting seventh or eighth, so that’s better than Lo Duca hitting second.  Compared to 2007, there’ll be no change in runs scored, though.

First Base – Carlos Delgado is on his last legs.  Probably.  He is listed in the media guide as 6’4”, 265 pounds.  Maybe the big Carlos, but not the 2008 Carlos.  Carlos started 2007 miserably, and posted a 119 OPS+ after the All-Star Break.  He has started 2008 much better, and it hasn’t been great, so hopefully his season will result in a somewhat better year – probably about ten runs over the season.  And that’s just getting back to league average with the bat.

Second Base – Ugh, another second baseman.  Luis Castillo has no power, and he’s old.  Remarkably, his PAs for the Mets were worse than the work they were getting from Damion Easley and Ruben Gotay.  Unfortunately, Castillo is not good defensively, so whatever decent runs he creates with his bat, he’s likely to give back with his glove.  His performance is likely to be a net zero compared to 2007, if not a decrease in runs by about five.

Third Base – David Wright is awesome.  His career has a nice slope so far, with OPS+ of 118, 139, 133, 150 and has come out of the gate knocking the cover off the ball.  He has already hit four more home runs than he did last April.  He won a Gold Glove in 2007.  Yes, his defense improved by ten runs, but that just got it back to league average.  He is improving, and he could earn a GG this season if he continues to improve.  He is looking at a good arc and adding another 15-20 runs to his performance.

Shortstop – Jose Reyes start the season looking to set all sorts of unprecedented improvements.  At the ASB, he had an OPS+ of 122.  In September, he posted an OPS+ of 58.  If you want to look for a non-pitcher, non-manager goat, Reyes volunteered.  Which was the real Jose Reyes?  Well, neither.  He’s not the Reyes that posted a huge OPS in April, but should be able to do as well as he did in 2006, which, compared to 2007 is an increase of 15 runs or so.  His defense also continued to be solid, improving slightly over 2006, and he should at least maintain that.  A full season with Castillo could also improve their ability to turn the doubleplay – something that bit them often enough to matter in the last two months of 2007.

Left Field – Moises Alou missed half of the season in 2007.  He’s already on the DL and will probably miss half of 2008.  Barry Bonds is a free agent and could be taking these at bats.  Alou has posted OPS+ of 131, 138, 132 and 138 the last four years.  His batting average was .341 in 2007.  He hasn’t lost bat speed, and even though he’ll be 41, there’s no obvious reason for him to see significant, if any real decline.  What about this injury – won’t it slow him down?  You might think so if Alou weren’t injured in the last two seasons and continued to hit this well.  But that still leaves half of the season.  The Mets are counting on Angel Pagan, so far, and Pagan, just 26, has played well.  Offensively anyway.  He hasn’t looked great in the outfield, but he’s got decent speed, and may adapt.  Alou was bad defensively, so Pagan, while not good, may be average.  Pagan isn’t a bad hitter as a centerfielder, but his 300 ABs for the Cubs weren’t going to be enough from left field.  The Mets will need to catch some lightning from him.  The 2007 Mets LF weren’t good without Alou, so it looks like a wash.

Center Field – Carlos Beltran is in a nice area in his career.  He’s got a good run of 130 OPS+, and should be able to produce that again in 2008.  It would be nicer to get the 2006 performance, but that just balanced out his terrible 2005 performance.  He’s still terrific with the glove, albeit still gun-shy from his collision with Mike Cameron two years ago.  He is still the upper echelon defensively in center, but he clearly pulls up sooner on ‘tweeners.  Beltran could be better, but he could be worse – he isn’t likely to be far from his 2007 performance in either direction.

Right Field – Whew – Shawn Green is gone.  He was a terrible pick-up to begin with.  To be fair to Green, he actually didn’t play that poorly.  He also didn’t play well enough to keep Lastings Milledge out of the lineup.  He is also not a good fielder.  The Mets traded for Ryan Church.  Church has a decent bat, and should easily outhit the Mets 2007 RF.  He’s also a good fielder.  Not the best, but solidly above average.  Church is about an average hitter for a right fielder, but just 29, and could hit a little better with more regular play.  His glove and bat will add about 15 runs (10 and 5) over the 2007 crowd.  How well he handles lefties will be a big factor.  He hasn’t been too bad thus far in his career.

Bench – If there is anything Willie Randolph cannot do, it is construct a bench.  Okay, he can’t manage a pitching staff either, and doesn’t really know good tactics, but let’s focus on the bench.  Damion Easley, Brady Clark, Marlon Anderson, Raul Casanova, Endy Chavez.  If I were constructing a bench, only Endy might be on it.  To be fair, when Alou comes back, Brady Clark will likely get cut, and I suppose Angel Pagan is tolerable as a bench player.  Having two second basemen is pathetic.  Also, Ramon Castro will be on the bench later, so Casanova is just temporary.  There is no home run threat sitting on the bench.  How can someone think he can small ball his way like that?  Willie learned how to manage with a DH – couldn’t he get a DH to sit on the bench and play some first base? 

Rotation – Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Pedro Martinez – Johan has been really good so far.  He’s running out of gas about 100 pitches, and that might be related to having to play both sides of the ball.  He’s also given up a few home runs, but is still dominating for six innings.  As the season progresses, I think he’ll be able to stretch those innings out.  He’s basically replacing Tom Glavine in the rotation – nearly all the other innings will be similar.  How many runs does he save over Tom Glavine?  About twenty.  That’s right – 100 ER versus 80 ER.  Now, that’s using Santana’s 2007 stats.  If he reverts to 2005-6, then it is closer to 30 runs.  And if some overzealous analysts are to be believed on the difference between the AL and the NL, Santana may not allow a run all season (oops).  Santana is awesome, and he’ll have a great ERA.  He’ll save about twenty to thirty runs over Glavine.

Oliver Perez was just ridiculously young when the Mets got him.  He is just 26 this year, and has some nasty stuff.  He threw 177 IP last year, and I suspect he’ll move that up another 30 innings this year, and tweak up his ERA+ as well.  Perez allowed a lot of unearned runs last year, and that could be linked to his level of maturity.  Hopefully another year will stabilize that, and he’ll respond better to errors behind him.  So far, so good.

John Maine was another steal of a young pitcher.  He’s still learning, but is strong enough to get to 200 innings and a solid ERA+ in the 110 area.  For a third starter, that’s strong.  He’s got interesting stuff, and I think he will continue to improve.

Mike Pelfrey was a high draft pick and a big prospect.  He’s presently unpolished, but he is learning on the job while El Duque and Pedro are out of action.  Pelfrey has some nasty stuff, and it is going to be a matter of control and not making mistakes.  He can throw 120 innings around league average, and that’s going to be better than they got from him, Brian Lawrence and Jason Vargas.

Then there is the fifth slot.  Many had high hopes for Pedro Martinez, but he didn’t pitch in 2007 much, so that he is not pitching in 2008 isn’t trouble – yet.  Nelson Figueroa has pitched those starts up to this point, and done very well.  He last pitched in the majors in 2004 for the Pirates.  His stuff looks good in the games I have seen, but remember – he’s a place holder for Pedro/El Duque, and if he can get the ball to them without posting an ERA of 6, then the Mets will have done all right.

The rotation seems to be better than the 2007 group by a pretty good margin.  It looks like about thirty runs, and could easily creep upwards depending on the growth of Perez/Maine/Pelfrey.

Bullpen – Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, Scott Schoenewies, Jorge Sosa, Duaner Sanchez.  I bad-mouth Rick Peterson a lot, but I do think he gets to pick his pitchers, and this selection is very good.  Wagner is a stud as a closer.  He’s started much better than in the last few years, and has even had better velocity than last year.  He’ll prevent a few more runs, and that will mean a few more wins.

The set-up man, Aaron Heilman has stumbled out of the gate, and could easily lose his job to Duaner Sanchez (this has occured since I wrote this).  Schoeneweis was mismanaged horrifically last year, so that should improve slightly.  Smith started the season strong, but the league got to him later.  I don’t know if it was experience with his stuff or if Joe got a little worn down.  They aren’t hitting him yet this year, so I am leaning toward tiredness.  Pedro Feliciano is not a LOOGY, and if Willie/Peterson learn that, the Mets will be better off.  It’s a good bullpen, and I expect them to allow twenty fewer runs than last season.

Help – Oh, there’s no help.  These are the players they have.  Don’t expect some Gregg Jeffries to show up at the end of the year.

Results – Last year the Mets scored 800 runs and allowed 750.  They added Santana and have maintained the status quo, plus some player improvement, via regression and aging, so this year, they’ll score 830 runs and allow 710 runs.  That’s assuming no one goes bonkers – good or bad.  So the Mets will get home around 93-69.

Mets ZiPS Projections