Looking Forward to 2008:  Philadelphia Phillies

...and Alan Honeycutt

Witty Introduction:

Sam:  So....  The Phillies.  What say we about the Phillies?

Alan:  They were in the playoffs last year. 

Sam:  No one cares.

Alan:  Really?  They drew X million fans last year.

Sam:  If anyone cared, we wouldn’t be writing this.  They clearly have no fans.

Alan:  I think you confuse “an interested fan-base” with “BTF contributors with the bandwidth to write a preview.”

Sam:  I don’t know any Phillie fans.  Therefore they’re aren’t any.  QED. 

Alan:  I don’t think it works that way.

Sam:  Except Sean Forman.  Who is a god-man to whom we all owe fealty, and a Phillie fan.  That’s the only reason I’m contributing here.  So Sean doesn’t kill me with his god-like wrath.

Alan:  Maybe we should talk about, you know, the team.

Sam:  Oh, and Brett from work.  He’s apparently a Phillie fan.  I like Brett.  We discussed Baudrillard during training.  You don’t get that very often in the States.  Todd is from Philly too, but he’s a Red Sox fan for some reason.  Todd makes no sense sometimes.

Alan:  Sean would want us to talk about the actual players.

Sam:  What’s the point?  We could just email Sean and Brett, cc: Todd and be done with it.

Alan:  They did win the division last year.

Sam:  See?!  This is my point.  It’s like you had a clash of civilizations between Christendom and Islam and the freakin’ Buddhists won.

Alan:  Dare I even ask?

Sam:  Look, I’m fully prepared for the Mets to win.  The forces of Evil could triumph.  It would suck, but it would also validate my basic animal cynicism, confirm the essentially fallen nature of the world, reiterate my vainglorious belief that only I stand between the Holy and the Profane.  While painfully intolerable at the core, such a thing would not fundamentally alter the polarity of the world.  It would bring the pendulum to rest for a few more ticks on the side of civilian slaughtering tyrants, child-molesting priests and New Yorkers but the archetypal structure of the thing would be unaltered.  Everything essential to the War itself would remain in place, holding the lines until that tick tocks back over to the forces of good and light.  Gandalf the Grey could still be reborn, the White City defended.  The trenches and barricades need not be dismantled, simply re-supplied.  I’m prepared for that sort of thing.  But some second-tier pup without a single battle scar sauntering in on a chorus of “hope” and “change?!” Not only is that presumptuous it is, dare I say, uppity…

Alan:  You didn’t…

Sam:  It threatens the entire edifice!  If you allow someone like that to start monkeying about with the fortifications they may all just crash down entirely.

Alan:  Ryan Howard?

Sam:  Dogs and cats, living together!  Rain of frogs! 

Alan:  Ryan…

Sam:  Frogs!  From the sky!

Alan:  ...Howard?

Sam:  Articulate.

Alan:  You did.  You’re so going to hell.

Sam:  You don’t believe in hell.

Alan:  The Phillies?

Sam:  I could be convinced that Philadelphia is hell.

Alan:  Ryan Howard is really good.

Sam:  So is Chase Utley, but no one but fantasy geeks give a damn.

Alan:  ...and noone at BTF are fantasy geeks?

Sam:  Okay.  I concede your point.

Positional Previews:

C - Not Mike Lieberthal

Sam:  The last time I paid attention to the Phillies Mike Lieberthal was their starting catcher.  And he was good.  There was an actual debate as to whether he was better or worse than Javy.  Does this say something about me, or about the recent vintage Phillies?

Alan:  Probably a little of both.  The last Phillies catcher that I paid any attention to was Johnny Estrada, and he was wearing a Braves uni.

Sam:  I miss Kevin Millwood.

Alan:  Turns out the Phillies run some guy out there named Carlos Ruiz.  He’s probably good for an OPS somewhere in the low to mid 700’s, so I’m not even sure that the fantasy geeks care about him. 

ZIPS:  273/341/425—Uh, damn!  ZIPS likes him some Carlos Ruiz.  Are we just stupid?

1B - Ryan Howard

Alan:  Ryan Howard looks the offspring of a DH and a duck-billed platypus, but he can absolutely rake.

Sam:  Most platypii can, actually.  It’s genetic or something.  You want someone who can absolutely mash a baseball get yourself a Bonds, a Griffey, a Fielder or a platypus.  Platipii are like the natural opposite of Laroches.

ZIPS:  294/406/622—F*ck!

2B - Chase Utley

Sam:  I’m sure we have to say something here other than “the bastard makes Kelly Johnson look positively pedestrian.”

Alan:  Yeah, Utley is a little sickening.

Sam:  He reminds me of Jeff Kent.

Alan:  You mean a second baseman that hits like a corner infielder?  Yeah, I see the similarity. 

Sam:  Mostly I just meant I’d feel better if he were a total #######.

Alan:  The thing about Utley is that he snuck up on me.  There he was as a promising 25 year old with a middling 266/308/468 line in 2004 and then, BANG!, next year the guy starts slugging in the mid 500s with a high OBP to boot and doesn’t look back. 

Sam:  ‘roids.

Alan:  2007’s line of 332/410/566 is just plain unfair.  I’d expect some regression to the mean this year, but he’s got a long way to fall before he’s anything other than great.  Do you even care if a guy like this brings his glove to the park?

Sam:  Dial says he can play defense too.  He’s basically Joe Morgan, only without trying to shoehorn every player he ever played with into the Hall of Fame.

Alan:  Give him time…

ZIPS:  299/381/515

SS - Jimmy Rollins

Sam:  Jimmy Rollins won the MVP last year.  He can call up Hideo Nomo and put it on the shelf of crap that should belong to Chipper Jones.

Alan:  It would help if Chipper played every day.  Ignoring your bias for a moment, that doesn’t seem fair to Chase Utley.

Sam:  Or Albert Pujols.  Or David Wright.  Or Ryan Howard.  Or Cecil Fielder’s kid.  But he won it nonetheless.

Alan:  Oh, I just noticed that Rollins is fast or—what do we call that these days?—exciting!

Sam:  Well, at least he has that.

Alan:  Let’s take off our snob glasses for a second and acknowledge that Rollins had a great year.  He traded some doubles for home runs and somehow managed to hit 20 triples, thereby besting his previous year’s slugging (also a career high) by 50+ points.  Like Utley, he seems destined for a decline, but that’s picking nits.  He’s going to be a league average or better hitter while playing the second toughest position on the diamond.

Sam:  You make it all sound so pretty.  I feel naked without my glasses. 

ZIPS:  282/336/485—Yeah, that’s more like it.

3B - Not Scott Rolen

Sam:  Who the hell plays 3B for these guys now?  I’ll go look… HOLY CRAP?  Pedro Feliz?!  Really?  Backed up by Wes Helms?!?  I’m sorry, I can’t envision any sort of contender that involves Pedro Feliz or Wes Helms. 

Alan:  Is there anything more frustrating than a team that has a great core and surrounds it with crap? 

Sam:  Baltimore.

Alan:  You’d think that there would be someone more useful than Pedro Feliz for the Phillies to stick at third with a $106 million payroll.

Sam:  Seriously.  I have David Wright AND Ryan Zimmerman on my fantasy team.  It isn’t that hard.

ZIPS:  235/280/393 (Feliz)—that pretty much makes up for the platypus

ZIPS:  265/324/420 (Helms)

CF - Not Doug Glanville

Sam:  Um, looks like Shane Victorino here.  I remember a couple years back someone told me Victorino was supposed to be good.  Isn’t he why they could let Abreu go or something?  I’m looking at his career here, and it doesn’t really astound.  Then again 275/340/415 would look pretty good in place of Mark Kotsay, so maybe I’m being too harsh.

Alan:  Victorino isn’t terrible.  He slugged 647 one year.  Granted, that was in 17 ABs.

Sam:  Once, in grade school, I ate a slug.  Your point?

Alan:  Victorino is decent, he’s cheap, and he probably tastes better than that slug.

ZIPS: 277/336/440

RF - Not Bobby Abreu

Sam:  Geoff Jenkins and Jason Werth.  I didn’t know they let Jenkins play outside of Milwaukee.  I thought he had a Wisconsin clause or something.  Is this a platoon or is Werth the 4/5th OF?

Alan:  I’m guessing platoon, because Leroy’s cousin Jeff definitely needs a dance partner these days.  That 282 OBP vs. lefties isn’t going to cut it.  Add to that the fact that Werth was basically Barry Bonds last year against southpaws (375/467/591) and you can see where this is going.  Personally, I might be tempted to run Werth out there every day, but MLB is taking a cue from the NFL and having Philly employ Feliz and Jenkins frequently to increase parity and speed up the games.  No need to have guys with decent OBPs out there clogging the basepaths.

ZIPS:  269/345/464 (Jenkins)

ZIPS:  260/359/417 (Werth)

LF - Pat Burrell

Alan:  Is it just me or does everybody seem to hate Pat Burrell?  I know the guy strikes out too much, but you’d think that being the 2nd or 3rd best hitter on your team would garner a little respect.  He’s basically Adam Dunn with more walks and less power.

Sam:  I know I hate Pat Burrell, so that certainly supports your theory.  Most Mets fans hate him too, because he kills them from what I hear.  With that said Burrell is exactly the type of player I’d spend hours defending on Usenet if he were a Brave.  Criminally underrated, mostly by the “grit and makeup” crowd, a guy who goes through phases where he’s the most dangerous bat on the field.  Yeah, I could so get behind me some Pat Burrell if he wore the correct laundry.  I’m virtually certain he won’t be platooned with So Taguchi. 

Alan:  Full disclosure:  I hate Burrell, too (but love Adam Dunn).  Maybe there is something to this whole “likability” thing.

Sam:  I think it’s your affinity for guys that look and behave like Sloth from the Goonies.

Alan:  Adam Dunn wishes his SF (Sloth Factor) could compare to Yuney’s.

ZIPS:  249/377/479—That batting average is hard to stomach even as a SABR friendly sort.  No wonder the Philly yahoo chorus hate him.

The Rest of the Offense (the bench)—

Sam:  Do we even know who they’re going to take north on the bench?  Looks like Wes Helms is the backup corner infielder behind Feliz and Howard.  (I think he started for them last year at third, no?) Eric Bruntlett is the backup MI.

Alan:  Don’t forget Chris Coste!

Sam:  How could I?

Alan:  Who were we talking about?

Sam:  Chris Coste.  Is he any better or worse than Brayan Pena?  Because these guys have Chris Snelling and nowhere to put him.

Alan:  I don’t think that the Phillies are relying too much on their bench beyond Werth.  If Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Burrell don’t get the vast majority of the playing time at their positions, the Phillies can kiss contention goodbye.

ZIPS:  239/285/366 (Coste)—Seriously kids.  I’ll give you a real backup catcher for Chris Snelling.

ZIPS:  243/357/383 (Snelling)

Starting Pitchers:

Cole Hamels

Alan: Cole Hamels is awesome.  I’d like to talk him down so that I can trade for him on the cheap in our fantasy league, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen, so I’ll just be honest.  Hamels is the kind of pitcher that every team wants.  He’s young, has a great minor league pedigree, a record of success in the majors, and a strikeout rate of over a batter per for his career.  He could cut down on the homers, but that’s getting really picky.

Sam:  That’s just depressing.  We used to have those guys.

Alan:  It’s the major league success that’s the hurdle.  The gap between AAA and the majors seems especially large for pitchers.  The path to Bruce Chen-dom is well-worn.  When you find a Hamels, you just sit back and enjoy the advantage every fifth day.

Sam:  You know, true aces are just stupendously rare.  You just don’t find them scattered around the apple tree for the picking.  As a Braves fan weened on the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz years, it’s hard to really digest that, but really, these guys are hard to find.  Even the “can’t miss” guys miss more often than not.  Mark Prior and Kerry Wood and Jeremy Bonderman and even Ben Sheets.  Sure, they can be top quality starters who can anchor a rotation, but they’re not the One True Thing.  Hamels might be one of those guys.  One of the Peavys and Santanas and, when he’s working it, Zambranos.  I should try to watch him pitch more often.

ZIPS:  14-7, 3.66, 192 innings—Definitely worth watching

Brett Myers:

Sam:  They’ve pulled Myers out of the pen and put him back into the rotation.  I’m not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.  He admits that he gets bored not pitching every day, but they really need him to start this year.

Alan:  Oddly enough, Myers’ ERA was nothing special last year as a reliever (4.33 as compared to previous seasons of 3.91 and 3.72 as a starter), so maybe he should pitch bored more often.  The underlying peripherals were good though (he increased his K-rate considerably from his starting days), so I think it’s reasonable to expect him to revert to his previous form.  In other words, an ERA in the high 3’s, which is nothing to complain about. 

ZIPS:  5-3, 3.31, 98 innings (as a reliever)

Jamie Moyer:

Sam:  Hey look!  The Phillies have Tom Glavine as their #3 starter too!

Alan:  Moyer, at 45, is even older than Tommy.  He’s had one year of above average pitching in his post-40 career, but I’m not sure that his age even matters at this point.  He’s probably good for 200 or so “keep you in the game” innings.  The 2007 Braves adjusted my expectations for pitchers, so that doesn’t look so bad to me.

ZIPS:  11-12, 4.96, 196 innings—Alan: Sucky, but projections always seem to underestimate these old crafty lefties.  Sam: He did have a 5.05 last year…

Kyle Kendrick:

Alan:  22 years old.  A 3.87 ERA in 121 IP.  Sounds impressive, no?  Well, the underlying reality isn’t nearly as pretty.  Kendrick only managed to strike out 49 batters in those 121 innings, which isn’t going to cut it going forward.  Looking at his minor league numbers, he’s never been a strikeout pitcher and still met with success at each stop while being young for his league.  It’s possible that Kendrick has some kind of magic that allows him to consistently keep runs off the board by getting people to put the ball in play.  It’s more likely that he’s Horacio Ramirez.

ZIPS:  12-12, 4.91, 196 innings—Apparently ZIPS doesn’t think he has magic make-’em-put-it-in-play powers either.

Adam Eaton:

Sam:  Adam Eaton is not good.  In fact, he may not even make the team.  Which is telling, as he’s the only option they have at #5.

Alan:  Last year was really ugly.  His previous year in Texas looked ugly, but was basically the same thing he was doing in San Go, Diego, Go.  The lesson here is park factors, but I’m preaching to the choir.  Suffice it to say that the Phillies, like most every other team, could use another decent starting pitcher.

Sam:  Think they’d take Jeff Bennett for Chris Snelling?

ZIPS:  8-11, 5.53, 153 innings—Toasty!

Kris Benson:

Sam:  Benson is hurt, can’t pitch, and is renegotiating his minor league invitation to not have to go “back on the market”, which would mean “into retirement.” This does not bode well for the Phightin’ Phils.

ZIPS:  6-9, 5.20, 128 innings—...but still better than Eaton!  (I should be Benson’s agent)

Relief corps:

Flash Gordon is the closer at least until Brad Lidge comes off the DL.  They’ll probably tag team after that.  Not a bad combo, certainly, but not The Nasty Boys either.

ZIPS:  5-2, 3.60 in 60 innings (Gordon)

ZIPS:  4-3, 3.88 in 72 innings (Lidge)

Setup and such will involve ML vets JC Romero, Chad Durbin and Ryan Madson.  That’s a pretty solid core, as relievers go, and with the repeated caveat that relief pitchers are totally flaky and can’t be predicted for crap.  Anyone else that makes the squad is filler. 

ZIPS:  3-2, 4.17 in 54 innings (Romero)

ZIPS:  3-4, 4.44 in 79 innings (Madson)

Waiting in the wings:

Sam:  Um.  The Phillies have a catcher kid, right?  Yeah.  Jason Jaramillo. Looks good.  Probably a year or two away.  Anyone else?

Alan:  Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman might be able to help out with the rotation in a year or two.  Outman is supposedly “closer to the majors” but has the “lower upside.” Carrasco is pretty much the consensus top prospect in the system.  Lou Marson is actually ahead of Jaramillo on most lists.  Jaramillo is destined for the bigs, but is already 25 and doesn’t seem to have much more than a below league average ceiling.  I don’t see anyone that’s going to make a huge impact this year at the major league level.

Management:

Sam:  Does Ed Wade still GM this bunch?  Is Charlie Manuel still the manager?

Alan:  I think it’s Pat Gillick now, but Manuel’s still there.

Sam:  Well, that’s the extent of what I know about them.  I used to mock Ed Wade a lot on Usenet.  I think I mocked Pat Gillick too.  I have nothing bad to say about Charlie Manuel.

Conclusion:

Alan:  So, the Phillies are going to have a nice offense and struggle with the back of the rotation.  Offensively, their core of Utley, Rollins, Howard, and Burrell features great players in their prime, some of whom are coming off of their career years.  It can often be difficult to tell what’s fluke and what’s genuine improvement at their ages, but it seems likely that Utley and especially Rollins will regress a little.  Burrell has been pretty consistent and Howard’s 2007 was very representative of his true ability, I’d say.  It actually wouldn’t shock me if Howard improved upon that campaign.  The Phillies lead the NL in runs last year and, even with some guys coming back to earth, they are likely to again be a top offense.

Sam:  Agreed, but that rotation scares the bejeezus out of me if I’m a Phils fan.  It’s a disaster waiting to happen after Cole and Myers.  Maybe I’m still scarred from the “Smoltz and Hudson and pray for thermonuclear apocalypse” experience of last year, but man, Kyle Kendrick looks primed to collapse and Jamie Moyer is as old as Julio Franco.  That doesn’t even begin to address Adam Eaton.  And the bench is mighty weak too.  If _anything_ happens to Howard or Utley, they’re screwed.  Yes, you can say this about most any team, but the danger is there nonetheless.  Assuming health though, you’re right, the offense should be top of class, which is good, because with that rotation they’ll need it.  The pen will get worked to death early and often too.

Alan:  Sounds like a top of the division, possible winner if things break right (or wrong for the Braves and Mets), type of team.  I still don’t know how the Mets managed to suck so badly at the end of last year that they let Philly back in, but, every once in a while, the light shines, you know?  My gut says that the Mets are favorites and the Braves have fixed the problems in their rotation enough to nudge slightly ahead of Philly, but it’s still a three horse race.