Looking Forward to 2008:  Pittsburgh Pirates

During that fifteen year period, the Pirates always had some consistency.  They would almost certainly have a marquee offensive player, be it Jason Kendall, Brian Giles, or Jason Bay.  They always had a promising young arm fronting the rotation, whether it was Denny Neagle, Francisco Cordova, Kris Benson, Kip Wells, or currently, Ian Snell.  None of these things mattered, either, as they’d watch top draft pick after top draft pick, names like Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Byran Bullington, Chad Hermansen, and Kris Benson flame out due to injury, ineffectiveness, or sheer mis-draft.  All this lead to an inability to find a compliment to those marquee players, and doomed the team.

Of course, the organizations inability to consistently benefit from big trades hurt as well.  Though management did well on some minor deals, extracting Kip Wells and Josh Fogg from the White Sox for Tod Ritchie, then nabbing those other Sox second baseman of the future Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan, nothing they did could put them over the top.  Even brining In Jason Bay, Jack Wilson, and Adam LaRoche underscored how awful the Pirates were at actually developing they’re own talent.  A large sign hung over the Pirates, one that said, “Beware!  Farm system sinkhole has no bottom!”

When they did develop their own players, they seemed incapable of figuring out what to do with them.  Aramis Ramirez, one of the star 3rd basemen in the game, had stagnated under the Pirates tutelage, having one good season offensively during his six seasons there (a 122 OPS+ in 2001) while being a horrid defender.  Traded to the Cubs for essentially nothing, with the top man in the swag, Bobby Hill never really developing or given a chance to.  Kris Benson, who never lived up to his number one overall draft status, nevertheless was an effective pitcher for the Pirates, but was traded for a man they would later lose in the Rule 5 draft (Jose Bautista, whom they would reacquire).  That Omar Minaya would recoup more value for Kris Benson at the tail end of his career than the Pirates could for him in his prime is damning evidence of the organizations incompetence.  Oliver Perez , a ten cent head and $100 million arm, scuffled with the Pirates teachings, but thrived with the Mets.  Craig Wilson a offense first catcher who hit like a first baseman could find time at neither place, watching futilely as lesser players took his playing time.

Yet, it is Jose Guillen that represents the Pirates developmental acumen over this period the best.  Signed as a Latin American free agent, Guillen was an immediate scouting favorite.  Nevertheless, it was painfully clear that Guillen was raw and would have to learn baseball skills.  He was overaggressive at the plate and clumsy afield.  The highest level of the minors he would play at for the Pirates was A+, putting up a .322/.347/.498 in 1996.  Guillen would reach the majors in 1997, and his power stayed with him, slugging 14 homers in 493 ABs as a 21 year old.  It would be his best season as a Pirate, and he would be traded to Tampa Bay two years later for nothing at all.  Guillen would continue to scuffle until a 2003 break out with the Cincinnati Reds.  The Pirates had identified the right talent, but could not figure out how to tap it.
And there it is, the problem with the Pirates organization is not necessarily their inability to identify talent.  Jose Guillen and Aramis Ramirez would both go on to fulfill their vast potential.  Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay, and Adam LaRoche, all fully developed by other organizations, would prove to be better than the organizations that gave up on them thought.  But almost every player needing development in the Pirates system has floundered and flopped.  Ronny Paulino went from a decent catcher to a conditioning and motivational nightmare.  Jack Wilson was a decent hitter in the minors, but like Jose Guillen before him was rushed to the major leagues without playing higher than A-ball.  Players like Chad Hermanson, Zach Duke, and Paul Maholm were/have never able to live up to the talent they displayed.  In the end, the Pirates have been unable to develop any player worth noting.  When they do develop a nice complimentary part, guys like Craig Wilson, Ryan Doumit, and Nate McLouth they tend to bury them, seeing all their faults and no weaknesses.  Add in a parade of substandard managers like Lloyd McClendon and Jim Tracy, and you have an organization that can blame no one but itself for failure.

This year, the Pirates brought in a new front office guy, a man named Neal Huntington.  Huntington was not a highly touted front office guy, and had been marginalized in the system he came from, the Cleveland Indians.  Huntington has his job cut out for him, though his replacing bad fit Jim Tracy was a nice move for the organization.  He has yet to make a major splash, but most have assumed that SS Jack Wilson, 2Nd Baseman Freddy Sanchez, and Xavier Nady will soon be heading out the door; followed by Jason Bay should the latter prove healthy.  The team’s choice of players in RF and at catcher, Doumit vs. Paulino, Nady vs. minor league slugger Steven Pearce will be the next test.  These decisions, or lack there of, followed by his performance in this June Amateur Draft will give the initial reports on the Pirates new GM.  As is, he has a long, hard, uphill battle to fight.

ZiPs used for offensive numbers.  UZR numbers used are three year averages unless otherwise noted, or as for these Pirates, they happen to exist.  RC totals are for the projections listed at that position, which means Luis Rivas’s (really?  I mean, really?) RC projection is aggregated in his 2nd Base total, even though it’s for all his playing time at all his positions.  Bad teams, lord I love’em.  Bad teams can’t get enough of ‘em.  OOooOOoo whee, bad teams for me!  

Offensively speaking:  In 2007, 724 Runs scored in 6103 Plate Appearances.

Catcher:
Ryan Doumit(.274/.341/.472;110 OPS+;40 RC in 279 PA)(22% CS)
ZiPs:(.276/.344/.463;80 RC in 558 PA)
Ronny Paulino(.263/.314/.389;83 OPS+;53 RC in 494 PA)(27% CS)
ZiPs:(.263/.321/.366;21 RC in 200 PA)

Ryan Doumit is one of the better offensive catchers in baseball, but like many offense first catchers, he can’t get playing time.  Since he’s with the Pirates, its merely par for the course, much like his predecessor, Craig Wilson.  However, Ronny Paulino’s precipitous collapse last year led to playing time down the stretch.  With the shortsighted, defense uber alles Jim Tracy put to pasture, Doumit opens the season as the starting catcher, where he’ll be mediocre, but not disastrous with the glove, and one the five best offensive catchers in the National League.

Ronny Paulino was once the apple of the Pirates eye, with his batting average driven 2006 and the Pirates’ anything but Ryan Doumit attitude.  Things changed, with Paulino showing up out of shape last year, his arm disappearing, and questions about his motivation abounding.  He’s not a useless player, with an 85 OPS+ being around average for a catcher, but unless his arm snaps back, he’s no better than a backup. 

Oddly enough, if Doumit gets most of the playing time behind the dish, the Pirates have the best catching situation in the division.  Geovany Soto and JR Towles might be as good as Doumit, but they lack a good track record.  Nonetheless, given the weakness of catchers in general, any number of teams might give something of value up for either of these catchers. Since both are over 25, the Pirates should be listening.  (101 RC)

1st Base:
Adam LaRoche(.272/.345/.458;108 OPS+;87 RC in 632 PA)(+6 UZR)
ZiPs:(.272/.348/.492;87 RC in 575 PA)
Doug Mientkiewicz(.277/.349/.440;107 OPS+;26 RC in 192 PA)(+13 UZR)
ZiPs:( .272/.356 /412;38 RC in 283 PA)

Adam LaRoche had a bad first half last year, then snapped back.  He’ll likely be better than that ZiPs projection.  He’s not an elite offensive player, and his glove is good but unexceptional.  In fact, unexceptional might be the perfect way to describe LaRoche.  It looks like the Pirates may have won the trade, what with Mike Gonzalez getting injured and Brent Lillibridge falling out of favor with the Braves.  LaRoche is 28 now and in his prime, and might bring back a prospect.  On the other hand, the Pirates didn’t exactly give up much to get him, did they?

Dougie Eyechart just keeps hanging on.  In the land of 12 man pitching staffs, he’s a roster burden that most teams can’t afford, a glove first 1st baseman.  If the Pirates do the sensible thing and drop to eleven pitchers, I could see keeping Eyechart, as his bat is good for a lefty bench player, and his glove still rates highly.  If he gets more than 300 PA, either LaRoche is injured or the Pirates still haven’t learned anything.
LaRoche isn’t a bad player, but to put things in perspective, the Pirates have the worst 1st baseman in the division.  1st Base is one of the strongest positions in the NL, with only the Mets, Marlins, and Giants likely to be worse than at first than the Pirates.  On the other hand, LaRoche is a lot better than Mike Jacobs and Dan Ortmeier, and with defense included, he’s probably better than Carlos Delgado. 
The Braves might want him back next year, and there are a few AL teams for whom he’d be an upgrade.  Since the Pirates don’t really have a better option in system, he’ll likely stick around unless someone blows away Neal Huntington. (125 RC)

2nd Base:
Freddy Sanchez(.304/.343/.442;103 OPS+;90 RC in 653 PA)(-30 UZR)
ZiPs:(.298/.340/.415;65 RC in 500 PA)
Luis Rivas(.263/.341/.400;54 RC in 465 PA;AAA)(-15 UZR)
ZiPs:(.244/.300/.358;15 RC in 150 PA)
Chris Gomez(See SS)(0 UZR)

Freddy Sanchez is a classic tweener.  His bat is unimpressive at third, though not bad.  His glove at third is about 26 runs above average by UZR, which makes him an above average player when you combine offense and defense.  At second his bat is good, not much different in overall contribution than Brandon Phillips.  His glove, however, is horrid.  He was actually a little worse than that three year average UZR mark last year.  Sanchez returns to the keystone this year, just another year older (30) and with little chance at improving.  He’s above average at third, but horrible at second with out any change in offense.

Luis O-for-3vas is unexplainable.  He was cut loose by the Twins after getting way to much time at second there.  He can’t hit for average, has no pop, doesn’t walk, and fields with a frying pan.  He can’t play second or third, and if gets starts at 1st or the OF, somebody needs there head examined.  And the team has at least two players in the minors better than he is.  Not too mention the fact that guys like Ruben Gotay pass through waivers all the time.  I don’t know if Rivas is the worst player in baseball, but he’s close, and even I don’t think the Pirates will give him much time (please?).

Freddy Sanchez should not be playing on this team when July 31st rolls around.  No he can’t play second, but there are several teams without a third baseman out there.  That doesn’t even take into consideration that there is no team in baseball that couldn’t use him off the bench.  He signed a weird contract in the offseason, but its team favorable. (80 RC)

Shortstop:
Jack Wilson(.296/.350/.440;105 OPS+;73 RC in 535 PA)(+5 UZR)
ZiPs:(.261/.313/361;49 RC in 450 PA)
Brian Bixler(.274/.368/.396;AAA)(N/A UZR, Good reputation)
ZiPs:(.257/.322/.345;26 RC in 250 PA)
Chris Gomez(.297/.325/.374;83 OPS+;26 RC in 240 PA)(-12 UZR)
ZiPs:(.280/.326/.348;30 RC in 274 PA)
Luis Rivas(See 2nd Base)

Jack Wilson had a great season last year, and coupled with fine defense, was a well above average shortstop.  The knock on Wilson has always been his lack of consistency, as normally he’s a bit below average with the bat, but will suddenly turn in a nice season.  Wilson was a good hitter in the minors, but was rushed to the majors by the Pirates after they stole him from St. Louis for Jason Christenson.  It seems possible that he could have been 100 OPS+ player on a more consistent basis with more developmental time, but its one of those things we’ll never know.  I expect he’ll drop down to his normal 75 OPS+ level with good glove work, make the decision not to trade him last year look bad.

Brian Bixler is a sorta prospect, a slick fielding middle infielder with a noodle bat.  He profiles as a future bench player, and is easily the best backup infielder in the organization.  He’ll get his time, and when Wilson is slipped out of town, the team will hardly notice it.

Chris Gomez can be found in Cracker Jack boxes.  Do not eat, can be a choking hazard.  Gomez is a right handed middle infielder who’s sometimes almost adequate with the bat against left handers.  Gomez lost his glove and it’s not coming back, as he’s no longer even a plus defender at 1st, much less a more demanding position.  He’s roster fodder, but at the minimum, isn’t hurting anything.  If Gomez or Rivas gets much time at short over Bixler, that’s a really bad sign, and Bixler’s no world beater.  (105 RC)

3rd Base:
Jose Bautista(.254/.339/.414;96 OPS+;76 RC in 614 PA)(-9 UZR)
ZiPs:(.249/.329/.415;72 RC in 587 PA)
Chris Gomez(See SS)(-25 UZR)

Jose Bautista is why they shifted Freddy Sanchez to 2nd, which appears to have been a better idea in concept than practice.  Bautista is better suited to a reserve role, as his bat won’t carry a corner, and his glove won’t carry an up the middle role, but he won’t kill you at any of those places.  He’s got some pop, and he’ll probably be around for a while.  The starting role belongs to Neal Walker in the very near future, so Bautista should be prepping for the utility spot soon.  The fact that Gomez is the second best option at 3rd base says a lot about the Pirates bench. (72 RC)

Left Field:
Jason Bay(.247/.327/.418;93 OPS+;78 RC in 614 PA)(+4 UZR)
ZiPs:(.265/.361/.478;101 RC in 652 PA)
Nyger Morgan(See CF)
Steven Pearce(See RF)

Jason Bay, what happened man?  Oh, you got on base 80 less times, that’s what happened.  As the decline wasn’t the typical old player’s skill decline, Bay’s a good bounce back candidate.  He’s still a latecomer to the majors, 29, and unlikely to be an All-Star caliber player in 3-4 more years.  ‘Course, you can say that about a lot of players.  The Pirates would be wise to trade him if he gets off to a hot start, as I don’t think he’d be a good choice to build the team around.  The swift decline of Brian Giles is something to be learned from here.  He’ll be his old self again this year, but Bay’s not going to age gracefully.  (101 RC)

Center Field:
Nate McLouth(.258/.351/.459;110 OPS+;60 RC in 382 PA)(-12 UZR)
ZiPs:(.259/.329/.415;59 RC in 468 PA)
Nyger Morgan(.299/.359/.430;105 OPS+;17 RC in 118 PA)(N/A UZR)
ZiPs:(.264/.319/.326;34 RC in 369 PA)

Nate McLouth is in the wrong organization.  He hits well, and while is defense isn’t perfect, it’s getting better.  He’s been the Pirates best CF option for the past three years, but the Pirates aren’t in the habit of playing their best players.  To put it another way, when the answers to your CF question are Chris Duffy, Rajai Davis, and most recently Nyger Morgan, its time to ask a different question.  Out from under the thumb of Jim Tracy and Dave Littlefield, McLouth is likely to win most the time in CF, beginning a new life as an excellent fourth outfielder when Andrew McCutchen wins the job next year.  That’s the plan anyway.  McLouth’s a guy that other teams could use as well, so he might not finish the season with the team.  He’s a perfect fourth outfielder, and as good as, say, Gary Matthews, Jr., but without the horrendous contract.

Nyger Morgan is the latest in the Pirates line of slapping hitting, speedy CF, a companion piece to Rajai Davis and Chris Duffy.  Morgan’s likely better than both, as he has a few secondary skills to go with those wheels.  In an ideal world he’d be a fifth outfielder.  In the Pirate world, he’s seen as a legit candidate to win the CF position.  The more things change.  Maybe they can land Jason Marquis for him (not funny, now that I think about it).  (93 RC)

Right Field:
Xavier Nady(.278/.330/.476;64 RC in 470 PA)(-1 UZR)
ZiPs:(.259/.319/.449;36 RC in 275 PA)
Steven Pearce(.320/.366/.557;AAA)(N/A UZR)
ZiPs:(.267/.324/.462;69 RC in 514 PA)

Free Xavier Nady, to a good home.  Nady’s an adequate bat, and if he’s your worst bat at an offense position, he’ll help your team.  He’s ideally suited as a four corners guy or a weak half of a platoon, but he’s mostly harmless even as a starter.  He doesn’t really have a place on the Pirates, and will play right up until someone trades for him.  Maybe they could get a wild but promising lefty starter for him… Nah, never happen.

Steven Pearce should look very closely at Xavier Nady.  Pearce is a 25 year old right handed hitting outfielder.  He’s unlikely to be an elite hitter, but is likely a bit better than Nady at this point.  He’ll be playing as soon as a spot in opened for him.  If he’s not, Huntington should really be on the lookout for Vlad.  Pearce is ready to give them Nady’s performance at a moments notice, but he’s not going to take LaRoche’s job.  (105 RC) (782 RS, 6,097 PA)

Farm System:
Chris Duffy(.249/.313/.357;75 OPS+;29 RC in 270 PA)
ZiPs:(.267/.319/.372;39.6 in 359 PA)
Kevin Thompson(.281/.382/.427; AAA)
ZiPs:(.252/.335/.404;51.8 in 429 PA)
Craig Wilson(.172/.304/.259;50 OPS+;5 RC in 69 PA)
ZiPs:( .238/.340/.438;32.2 in 243 PA)
Josh Wilson(.238/.290/.333;66 OPS+;27 RC in 285 PA)
ZiPs:(.237/.292/.350;35.8 in 382 PA)
Matt Kata(.222/.255/.348;56 OPS+;14 RC in 167 PA)
ZiPs:( .252/.289/.378;31.2 in 310 PA)
Andrew McCutchen(.258/.327/.383;AA)
ZiPs:(.239/.293/.347;46.1 in 497 PA)
Neal Walker(.288/.362/.462;AA)
ZiPs:(.229/.291/.343;41.6 in 458 PA)

Chris Duffy is a nice fifth outfielder who parlayed a .341 average 3 years ago into a career.  Kevin Thompson is a nice fourth outfielder who was never able to capitalize in small sample size to make a career.  He’s 28 now, and likely a better option than Nyger Morgan, but is unlikely to get much chance to prove himself.  He’s still better than Bubba Crosby.  Craig Wilson finally got free of the organization that never appreciated him just in time for his career to end.  They’ll now give the Mighty Thor a Viking funeral at Indianapolis.  Since this is the Pirates organization, they actually don’t have any one else better to give the playing time.  Josh Wilson is a better option than Luis Rivas, but then, who isn’t?  Wilson is probably better than Chris Gomez as well.  Matt Kata is a better option than Luis Rivas, but then, who isn’t?  Kata is probably not better than Chris Gomez, though.  Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates’ top prospect, and one of the top prospects in the game.  They did manage to avoid the temptation to rush him to the majors last year, and his struggles at AAA proved that he wasn’t quite ready yet.  Neal Walker came to life after leaving his catchers gear behind.  He’s a bit rough at third, but the bat looks good.  He could see a cup of coffee by the end of the year.

Pitching the show:  2007:  846 Runs allowed in 1448 innings pitched.

Rotation:
Ian Snell(3.76 ERA;68/177 BB/K;208 IP;116 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.48 ERA;191 IP;62/157 BB/K;104 RA)
Tom Gorzelanny(3.88 ERA;68/135 BB/K;201 IP;112 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.16 ERA;184 IP;61/128 BB/K;93 RA)
Zach Duke(5.53 ERA;25/41 BB/K;107 IP;79 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.60 ERA;182 IP;50/98 BB/K;102 RA)
Paul Maholm(5.02 ERA;49/105 BB/K;178 IP;87 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.89 ERA;175 IP;62/108 BB/K;104 RA+)
Matt Morris(4.89 ERA;61/102 BB/K;199 IP;90 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.98 ERA;188 IP;60/106 BB/K;114 RA)

Ian Snell is the best pitcher in the Pirates system, and a good pitcher overall.  He’s more a #2 or #3 than an ace, but there’s not a team in the league that wouldn’t like to have him.  He’s been docked for attitude, but apparently it was because he thought that the Pirate’s management and coaching staff were incompetent.  That means he’s both a good pitcher and savvy.

Tom Gorzelanny is another nice pitcher and another part of the Pirates hope for the future.  He and Snell are two of the very few players currently on the Major League roster worth building around.  Also a #2 or #3 starter, and also another guy other teams covet.  Both of these guys should be around for a while.

Zach Duke was once the bright hope for the future.  His 89 inning debut was excellent, although his peripherals gave lie to his 1.81 ERA.  His next year was a disappointment, but a 99 ERA+ from a 23 year old lefty is nothing to scoff at.  His 2007 was ugly, as his K rate dropped from acceptable to Nate Cornejo.  Duke’s another guy the clashed with the previous regime, and a good bounce back candidate under the new one.

Paul Maholm is another talented lefty, but his consistency has been no better than Duke’s.  His peripherals were better last year, but the end result was no better.  He’s 26 this year, and likely facing a crossroads.  On one path is ace-dom, the other path, Pat Mahomes (maybe not literally).  He’s another guy that could benefit from better coaching.

Matt Morris’s career is in three distinct shapes.  His first shape, from 1997-2002, Morris was one of the top pitchers in baseball.  From 2003 to mid 2007, he was a reliable, boring, innings muncher.  When the Pirates sent Rajai Davis to the Giants for Morris’s contract, that’s what they thought they were getting.  Instead he embarked on the next part of his career, over paid staff filler.  If Steve Trachsel is worth Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry, then some team might be willing to take a chance on him going forward.  If he’s with the team after July 31st (and that includes outright releasing him), he’s part of the problem.  The Pirates have at least three guys in the minors who need time in the rotation to see if they have anything to offer, and Morris is blocking the view.  (517 RA, 920 IP)

Bullpen:
Tyler Yates(5.18 ERA;31/69 BB/K;66 IP;82 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.22 ERA;64 IP;34/67 BB/K;33 RA)
Franquelis Osoria(4.76 ERA;8/13 BB/K;28 IP;91 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.61 ERA;82 IP;26/41 BB/K;46 RA)
John Grabow(4.53 ERA;19/42 BB/K;52 IP;96 ERA+)
ZiPs:(4.65 ERA;62 IP;25/51 BB/K;35 RA)
Phil Dumatrait(3.53 ERA;49/76 BB/K;125 IP;AAA)
ZiPs:(5.68 ERA;80 IP;35/46 BB/K;55 RA)
Evan Meek(4.30 ERA;34/69 BB/K;67 IP;AAA)
ZiPs:(5.46 ERA;56 IP;45/40 BB/K;37 RA)
T.J. Beam(3.59 ERA;47 IP;10/45 BB/K;AAA)
ZiPs:(4.61 ERA;41 IP;14/31 BB/K;23 RA)

Tyler Yates is a typical middle reliever.  These animals are considered pests in some area, but perform a vital function in the ecosystem, keeping spots warm for younger, more promising relievers while saving others from over work.  Careful, as relievers can be unpredictable, aggressive and exceptional at one moment, lethargic and pathetic the next.  One thing to remember is to never, never, over pay a reliever.  Yates could be the setup guy by the end of the year.  He could also be non-tendered.  He could also turn out to be Kryptonian, you just never know.

Franquelis Osoria is a relief prospect.  Much like fairies, mermaids, and leprechauns, proof of their existence are rare and anecdotal.  Much like Yates, but younger, he has a very good chance of being 27 someday.  So long as he’s making the minimum, he’s acceptable, but he’s still staff filler.

John Grabow throws lefty and doesn’t stink up the joint.  He’s never really been better than mediocre, but he doesn’t really cost anything, either.  Occasionally this kind of player turns into a Jon Garland or Alexi Casilla, so he’s got some upside.

Phil Dumatrait does have some upside.  Once a hotshot Red Sox prospect, back when such things were a bad sign, he’s now a hard throwing lefty battling the AAAA label.  Used primarily as a starter over his career, the Pirates are hoping he can take to relieving.  If he can harness his stuff, he could be a lot better than the typical LOOGY, and the Pirates have nothing to lose.

I feel confident in predicting that Eric Meek will not inherit the earth.  A bad minor league starter turned into a medoicre minor league reliever, his upside is likely Tyler Yates.  He’s the man most likely to be sent down when and if T.J. Beam proves ready.  Every now and then this kind of pitcher turns into something special, but it’s rarely with the organization that brings them up. 

TJ Beam is another relief prospect, but he’s had quite a bit of success in the minors.  Unlike Meek, his downside is Yates.  He’s the team’s best candidate for a future closer or set-up man. (229 RA, 385 IP)

Setup:
Damaso Marte(2.38 ERA;18/51 BB/K;45 IP;183 ERA+)
ZiPs:(3.63 ERA;52 IP;27/57 BB/K;23 RA)

Damaso Marte is a nice lefty reliever.  He was used mostly as a LOOGY last year, but will likely set-up as kind of a default option.  He’s the reliever on this team most likely to be traded.  He might bring back a B-B+ prospect, which would be not bad. (23 RA, 52 IP)

Closer:
Matt Capps(2.28 ERA;16/64 BB/K;79 IP;191 ERA+)
ZiPs:(3.40 ERA;90 IP;15/68 BB/K;37 RA)

Matt Capps doesn’t have your traditional closers stuff.  On the other hand, neither did Bob Wickman, and he did okay.  Signed to a very club friendly contract, he’s unlikely to be traded.  If the Pirates get a good offer, they should jump on it.  Until they do, he’s an excellent reliever, and since he can pitch multiple innings, wasted in the closers role.  (37 RA, 90 IP) (806 RA, 1447 IP)

Farm System:
Sean Burnett(4.48 ERA;70 IP;39/31 BB/K;AAA)
ZiPs:(6.14 ERA;110 IP;47/38 BB/K;82 RA)
Bryan Bullington(4.00 ERA;150 IP;59/89 BB/K;AAA)
ZiPs:(5.01 ERA;142 IP;50/72 BB/K;86 RA)
John Van Benschoten(2.56 ERA;109 IP;51/79 BB/K;AAA)
ZiPs:(5.50 ERA;131 IP;68/75 BB/K;88 RA)
Ty Taubenheim(6.37 ERA;89 IP;33/73 BB/K;AAA)
ZiPs:(5.83 ERA;156 IP;46/83 BB/K;111 RA)
Jonah Bayliss(8.36 ERA;38 IP;18/29 BB/K;52 ERA+)
ZiPs:(5.45 ERA;71 IP;34/56 BB/K;47 RA)

Sean Burnett was once the future ace of the Pirates.  Like every other pitcher with that designation, the ace’s value was less than a deuce.  He’s can’t get anyone out at AAA now, so he’s basically done.  Bryan Bullington was chosen over BJ Upton.  I’d say it wasn’t the smartest move, but Upton probably would have flamed out in the Pirates organization, they’ve been that bad.  John van Benschoten is proof that the “you can never have enough pitching” mind set is flawed.  He’s a nice what if game, more than that he’ll likely never be.  On the other hand, he’s probably the former top prospect most likely to turn into a decent bottom of the rotation arm.  Even if all three of there guys are completely done; it would still pay the Pirates dividends to see what they have to offer.  In other words, Matt Morris is in the way.  Ty Taubenheim throws strikes, hitters hit the strikes a long way.  If he gets any starts for the Pirates, bad things man, bad things.  Jonah Bayliss is to relieving as Skip Bayless is to writing.  On the other hand, Jonah might turn in a fluke year of 50 effective innings, more than Skip is likely to do.

Manager:
John Russell(No record; 78-84 .484 Win%)

The hiring of John Russell is turning over a new leaf for the Pirates.  Two years under Jim Tracy, and five years under Lloyd McClendon led the Pirates into the long wilderness of non-contention.  Poor roster management, line up construction, and pitcher usage reigned supreme.  Pitchers faltered from lack of coaching, hitters floundered from lack of playing time, and the defense always looked better than it performed.  For John Russell to improve over his predecessors, all he has to do is pick the right players to play.

The whole season may boil down to three positional battles:  Paulino/Doumit, Nady/Pearce, and Morgan/Duffy/McLouth.  The wrong choices at any of these positions would be a clear signal that nothing has changed in the land of Pittsburg.  However, the right sounds are coming out of the organization.  McLouth has been declared the starting centerfielder, and Doumit has claimed the catching duties for his own.  While Pearce is currently in AAA, the team claims it’s only to showcase Nady in order to get a prospect in return.

This Pirate team is one of the best in years, and could finish above .500 with a little luck.  The problem is that its upside is only 85 wins as presently constructed, and it’s got a few ill fitting parts.  Freddy Sanchez has the bat for second, but not the glove.  Adam LaRoche looks like a good 1st baseman, but is actually one of the lesser players at the position in the NL.  Jason Bay was and will be again an All-Star, but seems unlikely to age gracefully, and a long term contract could easily become an albatross.  And if the team is hovering around .500 at the trade deadline, the wrong choice could be easy to make, watching the Pirates shipping out Maholm, McCutchen, Walker, or Pearce for a temporary veteran upgrade. 

This is a pivotal season for the Pirates, with nothing less than the fate of the franchise at stake.  With the right moves, they could be poised at contention in three years, with a line up featuring budding young stars in McCutchen and Walker, and a rotation anchored by a rejuvenated Maholm, and the steady pair of Snell and Gorzelany.  The wrong choice could spell another 15 years in the wilderness, and a roster devoid of hope.  Good luck, Neal Huntington and John Russell, as the Pirates fate rest in your hands.