Looking Forward to 2008:  San Diego Padres

What do we know about the Padres? Thanks to the assertions of experts who apparently believe that their beliefs bear some resemblance to reality, we know a few things:

• They have great pitching


• They cannot hit


• Their closer is washed up


• Their farm system is a mess

What’s interesting is that when enough people repeat these tales, they become embedded in our collective consciousness and we find ourselves nodding in agreement.

Then some jerk comes along and presents actual data. In a blinding flash, what we know no longer makes sense. Some people will blame the jerk for disrupting their blissful slumber, while others will continue to make their original assertions, perhaps a bit more loudly in the belief that an argument’s validity is solely dependent on the force with which it is delivered.

Then there will be a few who survive the initial jolt and realize that the truth doesn’t hurt as much as they thought it would. It’s less like a punch to the gut and more like jumping into a cool stream. Once they start swimming around in it, they’ll discover it’s not so bad and some may actually come to enjoy the experience.

I’m assuming that if you managed to wade (to carry a metaphor too far) through the preceding manifesto, you fall into the latter category. First off, congratulations and welcome. Second, let’s take another look at what we know about the Padres.

They Have Great Pitching

Not quite. The Padres have above-average pitching with some great patches. Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy is a stud in any environment. Since the Padres moved to Petco Park, Peavy’s home/road splits have been minimal except for 2006, when his entire game went haywire. I mean, there are some differences, and if you want to say he’s more of a 2.80-2.90 ERA pitcher than a 2.50 guy, I’m okay with that. Either way, there aren’t many pitchers like him in the big leagues.

Chris Young is a solid #2 who frequently dominates but who also frustrates with his inefficiency and resultant inability to work deep into games. Some folks (usually the ones who insist that the Padres cannot hit) dismiss Young as a product of his park, but, like Peavy, his career numbers don’t support the theory:

Young works up in the zone and serves up more fly balls than anyone in the big leagues, so it would be disingenuous to claim that he doesn’t benefit from Petco Park. In fact, it would be about as disingenuous as claiming that his home park is the sole (or even primary) reason for his success.

Greg Maddux gives 200 innings of league-average ERA, which is fine for a #3 starter. The back end of the rotation is where things get a little dicey, with reclamation project Randy Wolf at #4 and waiver claim Justin Germano holding down the #5 spot until reclamation project Mark Prior is ready (or not).

Meanwhile, the bullpen remains strong and deep. Ignoring the all-time saves leader for now (he gets his own section), Heath Bell could close for many teams, while Cla Meredith eats righties for lunch and finished strong last year after a mid-season hiccup. The remaining relievers are fairly anonymous, but GM Kevin Towers usually gets good usage out of those types while other teams are busy signing Danys Baez and J.C. Romero to long-term contracts.

They Cannot Hit

In fairness, this statement doesn’t specify what the Padres cannot hit. Perhaps the experts are talking about pinatas or dartboards. But assuming they’re talking about baseballs, the numbers tell a different story. Take a look at some road numbers from 2007 and tell me which of these describes a team that cannot hit baseballs:

MLB Road Home Runs

1. Brewers, 110


2. Padres, 99


3. Phillies, 97

MLB Road Doubles

1. Padres, 196


2. Braves, 194


3. Tigers, 188

MLB Road Extra-Base Hits

1. Padres, 307


2. Braves, 302


3. Phillies, 297

How come the experts never mention that the Padres had more extra-base hits on the road than every other team in baseball last year? Seems to me that might be a useful piece of information to include when issuing judgments on whether a team can or cannot hit baseballs. Sure, they only placed 13th in road batting average (not the best indicator of offensive prowess) and eighth in road OPS (both just ahead of the World Champion Red Sox, for whatever that might be worth), but still—a team that cannot hit baseballs doesn’t pound the snot out of them in half its games.

Okay, smart guy, but we can’t just give the Padres a free pass for home games. They don’t hit a lick there.

Well, right, but nobody hits at Petco Park. And if you think the Padres looked bad there last year, you should see what their opponents did:

The Padres hit like Dave Valle at Petco Park, but their opponents hit more like Mike Matheny. I’m not going to claim that hitting like Valle is or should be a point of pride. That said, if we’re going to declare, based solely on their home performance, that the Padres cannot hit baseballs, then we really need to extend that courtesy to the rest of the league and conclude that nobody can hit, period. Funny how the experts never seem to follow their own logic to its end.

On an individual level, it’s more of the same. Much of the preceding work is adapted from the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual. This next bit is lifted directly from pages 37 and 38:

Without wishing to diminish the efforts of [Prince] Fielder or [Ryan] Howard, who are fine young hitters, I’m confident that if Adrian Gonzalez played half his games at Miller Park or Citizens Bank Park, he’d be an immediate MVP contender. The trouble is that—and I sometimes forget this because I’ve been thinking along these lines for 20+ years—most casual or even serious fans don’t look at things like park factors when making judgments on players or teams. They see Fielder’s 50 home runs and Gonzalez’s 30, and then reach their own conclusion without seeking context.

People are entitled to do that, of course. But it’s wrong.

In the case of Gonzalez, it turns out that among players with 500 or more road plate appearances in 2006 and 2007, only eight have a higher slugging percentage. Those guys are all recognized as terrific hitters, and rightly so, but it’s worth noting that the player directly behind Gonzalez, at #10, is Miguel Cabrera. You never would have guessed that if I hadn’t just told you.

Kevin Kouzmanoff? He was batting a surreal .108/.172/.193 through May 7. Then manager Bud Black sat him for two games, and when Kouzmanoff returned to the lineup, he was a completely different hitter, going .309/.362/.511 the rest of the way.

Khalil Greene? Petco Park destroys his offensive game. He hits like Kevin Elster or Dale Sveum there, but like Alfonso Soriano on the road.

Scott Hairston posted great numers in limited at-bats down the stretch. Brian Giles doesn’t hit for power anymore but still gets on base. Josh Bard is one of the better offensive catchers in the game, and nobody knows it. These guys aren’t world beaters, but that’s not what we’re trying to demonstrate. Were simply debunking the notion that they cannot hit baseballs.

Jim Edmonds shouldn’t be counted on for much offense at this stage in his career. Then again, with the bats that surround him, he’s hardly being asked to carry a serious load.

Their Closer Is Washed Up

Somewhere up there I said I’d talk about Trevor Hoffman, so here goes. The deal with Hoffman is that he doesn’t throw hard, hasn’t in years. Anyone familiar with him knows this, which brings me to my next point: Most folks outside of San Diego aren’t really familiar with Hoffman.

Hang on, let me replace my baseball cap with a tin-foil hat for this next riff. The national media is driven by advertising. The degree to which that may or may not be appropriate doesn’t concern us. What does concern us is that advertisers have targets in mind and that presumably they are hoping to attract as many consumers as possible. The best way for them to do this is by pitching their product on networks that appeal to their targets. With that being the case, do you suppose the national media is more likely to focus on, say, the Yankees and Red Sox or on a team like the Padres? Hint: Networks are businesses that need to make money to continue their operations.

Anyway, the point is that most folks see Hoffman once or twice a year on national TV. Usually he’s blowing the save in a “meaningful” game in July that doesn’t count in the standings. They see the result and the lack of velocity and lump the two events together as conclusive evidence that he’s finished. Last year Hoffman added an extra wrinkle by blowing a second save in front of the entire country at a most inopportune time. What sticks in their mind is this: He doesn’t throw hard and he blows saves. That’s a horrible bastardization of the man’s career, but what can you do?

So this year, in what is becoming a spring ritual, we have more experts predicting Hoffman’s imminent demise. The genius of this is that Hoffman is now 40 years old, and thanks to the laws of nature, he’s getting closer to the end. (In fact, he’s been getting closer to the end since he began, but that’s a disturbing thought that haunts us all, so we’ll skip the metaphysics and stick to baseball.) Because time works the way it does, eventually the experts will be right.

Incidentally, I’m going on record here as saying Johan Santana is close to the end of his career. In 2025, I’ll remind you that, geologically speaking, 18 years isn’t a very long time.

Their Farm System Is a Mess

This one contains a kernel of truth. The system was a mess a couple of years ago. It’s still not exactly strong, but with guys like Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli leading the charge, as well as some pitching depth at the lower levels, it’s at least average—possibly a little better, depending on who you ask.

The organization’s draft philosophy remains a bit risk-averse for my taste. Then again, it’s not my money. Still, it would be nice to see a greater emphasis placed on upside, especially when the team has multiple early picks, as has been the case in recent years. The extra picks should help mitigate some of the risk, so why not take a flier every once in a while?

Among guys currently in the system, Headley and Antonelli are closest to making an impact. Headley is a third baseman who has shifted to left field thanks to the presence of Kouzmanoff. Antonelli, another former third baseman, moved to second base in 2007 and could play there with the big club next year or end up in center field. Both will start the year at Triple-A Portland, although Headley could come up fairly soon if something should happen to Giles and/or Edmonds.

Beyond those two, names to watch are RHP Mat Latos, CF Cedric Hunter, 1B Kyle Blanks, LF Kellen Kulbacki, LHP Wade LeBlanc, RHP Will Inman, and OF Yefri Carvajal. Among those, LeBlanc is the only threat to see material time in San Diego this season, while Blanks and Inman could get a cup of coffee in September.

Bottom Line?

The NL West has become extremely competitive over the past two seasons, and 2008 should be no different. Barring catastrophic injuries to key players (Peavy, Greene, Gonzalez), the Padres will finish with a win total in the mid-80s, as usual. Whether that is enough to get them back to the playoffs remains to be seen.