Looking Forward to 2008 - St. Louis Cardinals

That's not to say that there are no problems. The next four paragraphs are the end of my 2007 Final Update last October:

"I wrote the above yesterday, and let it sit on my computer until today so I could proofread and clarity check with fresh eyes. So guess what happened? Right. Walt Jocketty got fired. The Cardinals are calling it a voluntary parting of the ways, but let's face it. Jeff Luhnow got Walt Jocketty fired. The media here in St. Louis aren't even sugar-coating it as they usually do. They're just openly saying that Cardinal management had a "difference of philosophy" with Jocketty. Management wants to go Jeff Luhnow's way, building from within by means of player development, while Walt knows very well that what Tony La Russa needs is more veteran pitchers.

"The worst part of this is not that Tony and Dave Duncan are almost surely gone as well. I mean, Jocketty actually had a 2008 contract, while Tony and Dave do not. But no, the worst part is that everyone in baseball now knows that the General Manager of the Cardinals, whoever he turns out to be, actually works for - not with, but for - the Director of Player Development, Jeff Luhnow. You've all worked for a living. You all know this. The person whom you work for, regardless of the organization chart, is the person who can get you fired. Jeff Luhnow just got a 13-year mainstay GM fired one year after said mainstay and his team delivered a World Championship. Jeff Luhnow can get a fresh new GM fired.

"And do you know what that means? It means that the Cardinals can, right now, before they interview anyone, just write off the entire A list of General Manager candidates. None of the A list will work under those conditions, where their boss is, essentially, the Director of Player Development. If Jeff Luhnow is not best friends with an A list GM candidate, the Cards are in for a few years of mediocre management at best. And a new manager, also likely chosen for his ability to get along with the Director of Player Development. And a new pitching coach, who also....

"As a Cardinal fan, I am really worried about a return to the doldrums of the 1970s. Sorry, but right now, that's what I see coming. Anything else will be blind luck. Jeff Luhnow won his political fight. Now we get to see if he can actually run a successful baseball team with a management staff of his own sycophants. Good Luck, Jeff."

Given all that, none of which I intend to retract, the Cardinals got exceptionally lucky. Tony and Dave did not leave. Also, as it turned out, Walt Jocketty's assistant GM was in fact friends with Jeff Luhnow, and ended up with a big fat promotion to full GM, after the Cards explored the A list GMs and got just as thoroughly rejected as I suspected they would. In addition, the new GM spent several years learning Walt Jocketty and Tony LaRussa's methods, and seems to be applying them. Finally, the Cards were able to trade Scott Rolen, even under fire sale pressure, for as good a player as Troy Glaus. That's a whole lot of luck. Without it, the Cards would, indeed, be looking at the aforementioned 70-win season.

So, what now? Those of you who have read my Cardinals comments the last several years will know that I think that Tony La Russa teams are dependent upon their veteran starting pitching. Offense is almost irrelevant, although I imagine there is a level that even Tony can't drop beneath. And those veteran starters for 2008 are? Well, right now, they are Kyle Lohse, which is certainly not adequate. They also have Adam Wainwright, who now counts as a successful veteran pitcher, though not really a proven veteran STARTER. Adam went over 200 innings last year, which might spell trouble, but the trouble has yet to appear. Maybe his years as a reliever got him to an age where he can actually handle that sort of workload (I'm assuming that you all know that heavy workloads are worse on young arms than older ones, especially if it's the first large load).

Then there are what I call the Hurtin' Three: Mark Mulder, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Clement, all still unavailable to pitch as of this writing. When will they return? Will they be able to pitch at full effectiveness when they do return? Will the new GM be able to score a mid-season Jeff Weaver-style pickup if they do not return at full speed? If you can answer those questions, I can wrap this preview up quick and give a decent prediction as to where the Cards will finish. Unfortunately, I do not know of anyone (sorry, Will Carroll, not even you) who can actually predict pitcher injury issues. It's still just rolling dice. However, the Cards do have Wainwright, and they do have Braden Looper, and they do have Lohse and Joel Pinero and, I suppose, Todd Wellemyer, and they do have the Hurtin' Three, and they really only need to get three pitcher-seasons of good solid veteran pitching out of the eight of them in order to contend, not just finish about .500. The odds of that are pretty good, but dicey enough that I am totally unwilling to make any predictions about Cardinal contention. I do think the odds are so good that the under-.400 hysteria you're seeing in a lot of publications is a worst-case scenario with maybe a 3% chance of actually happening.

You should also note that I have not even mentioned Anthony Reyes. Right now, Reyes is still engaged in some sort of battle with Dave Duncan. Dave wants Anthony to develop a sinking fastball as a ground-ball out pitch, while Reyes wants to stick with his rising fastball, which has been so erratic that it is really the main thing standing between Reyes and the Majors. So far, Reyes does not have a Major League sinking fastball, If he does not develop one by, say, June, he's going to get traded. All that means that his future is so dicey, even in the context of the Cardinals staff, that I have no idea what to predict. He could be anything from a star starter to gone by May. But he does up the number of possible arms from eight to nine, a

nd the Cards still only need three good starter seasons. And, as those of you who have been reading my stuff also know, that's just how Tony La Russa is content to operate. Drown him with OK potential, and he'll gamble that he can find a way to sort it out and get quality. His track record is in his favor. That three of the four best arms are the Hurtin' Three is against him. It's still a decent gamble.

I guess I could stop writing right now, and just skip the position players, but I suppose I really should make some comments there. I will skip the bullpen, because it's overflowing with decent arms, and still has Jason Isringhausen, and it will have the starters who do not end up in the rotation. It's a strength.

I was writing about gambles, wasn't I? So let's talk about the Cardinal outfield. Here's the deal. The Cardinals have six serious outfield candidates. None of them has "superstar" written all over him, but there are six of them, all of whom look like Major Leaguers: Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumacker, Brian Barton, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan. Out of all that, the Cardinals need three solid seasons, one of which has to be a center fielder. Ankiel and Rasmus can certainly play center, and Schumaker and Barton may be able to do that. It's a good gamble. Please note that I have completely written off Juan Gonzalez. He can't stay in the lineup at all, and he's been deeply overrated all his career anyway.

Just for more detail, let's go through the six and try to describe them, as best we can at this stage in their careers:

Rasmus - Considered the best prospect of the lot. A traditional center fielder with speed, good defense, hitting for average, taking lots of walks, little power. He will open the year in AAA for one reason only: if the Cardinals do that, they gain a whole extra year before arbitration and free agency hit. Likely to be the center fielder by June. Essentially, Jim Edmonds without the homers and a decade younger.

Ankiel - Fast, great arm, can play center. Hits for power and average, but won't take a walk. That is, he's Juan Gonzalez with defense, speed, and an arm. Major League pitchers will likely figure out what sort of pitch out of the strike zone that he can't hit and won't lay off, but that hasn't happened yet, and may not happen all this year. A good bet to start and maybe hit 5th or something. Likely to end up in right field when Rasmus arrives. A very old prospect with, consequently, no real chance of getting any better than he is now.

Schumaker - Will open the season as a starter because he's hitting .340 in spring training. I don't think that will last and I don't think he will end the season as a starter. A good backup because he can play all the outfield positions in a pinch. His hitting skills are generalized - he has no anchor skill. I regard that as a weakness. But I do think he's a solid upgrade at fourth outfielder.

Barton - a Rule 5 draftee who has played himself onto the roster, so the Cards get to keep his future. Has the speed to play center. May open the season as a starter, due to his hot spring, but that should not last. Good future.

Duncan - A big ol' power-hitting lefty first baseman who is playing the outfield because Albert Pujols has foot problems and can't play anywhere but first. Currently struggling with something between an injury and Sophomore Slump. I don't expect much of anything until June. After that, well, what Tony WANTS is for Chris to play left field and hit cleanup. He'll get every chance to do that. A decent gamble this year. Better in the future.

Ryan Ludwick - The Outfielder of Last Resort. The less he plays, the better the Cards will probably do because it means that they have three outfielders playing better than this known quantity. He's real good off the bench, but just a bit shy of a solid starter.

Best case scenario? Duncan in left, Rasmus in center, Ankiel in right. That would mean that all three of them came through. It would be a very good outfield, but it's not likely that ALL of them will come through. Any outfield composed of the best-hitting three of these six, though, should still be OK. Depth abounds, especially at center.

Now for the infield. Albert Pujols has played with pain his entire career. He's hitting .400 in the spring. Tony has already said that he's going to give Albert a little more rest, and management dredged up someone named Mather, who supposedly can hit but not field, in case Albert has a problem. I refuse to worry about first base. At third, we have Troy Glaus and absolutely no backup, now that Scott Spezio has gone to whatever sad internal hell he calls home. The greatest risk to the lineup, by a large margin, is that Glaus will get hurt and leave the Cards with a power hole in the middle of the lineup and no serious third baseman. The most solid prediction I can make is that if Troy Glaus gets seriously hurt, Anthony Reyes will get traded for a third baseman.

At the keystone, we do have some problems. Adam Kennedy is currently hitting .326 in the spring, so hopefully his 2007 was some sort of freak collapse. There is little behind him, although I think more of Aaron Miles than most do. At the very least, he's a decent backup at second. Shortstop is different. The Cards paid too much money to Cesar Izturis, who is currently acting like he's forgotten how to play baseball. Drove me nuts. Just a few weeks after they signed Cesar, Adam Everett came free agent. If you're going to get a good field/no hit shortstop, why not get a REAL Gold Glove? The Cardinals simply acted too fast, which is the one mistake that the new GM made that Walt Jocketty almost never made. Aaron Miles is not a shortstop. Brendan Ryan can play the spot, but is hurt right now, and not a starter in any case. The Cards need a little luck or a trade here.

Finally, we have Yadier Molina at catcher. Last year, Yadier demonstrated that his lousy bat of 2006 was a case of Slump. On the other hand, last year is probably more than he can sustain. I expect a dropoff of some sort, but more like a .255 batting average than the .220 he is hitting now. Essentially, Yadier is a .270-hitting catcher who is going through his early-career adjustments. It's not a problem because he isn't going to be carrying any serious offensive load anyway. Should have won the Gold Glove.

Final Prediction: None. There are too many gambles. I think 70 wins is too few, but 95 is too high. Within that range, which is uselessly huge, I think almost everything depends on getting at least some serious pitching out of the Hurtin' Three. I think the Cardinals' chances of getting to the Postseason depend a lot more on the other teams in their division than on their own performance. Wild Card, given the Mets and the Phillies, is asking a lot.

But isn't that the story of young teams? Isn't that what generally happens when you try to ditch your vets and build from within? You don't really know what's going to happen, and so you go through a lot of antacid. Fortunately, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are used to it, albeit in a different form. Also fortunately, the new Cardinal management seems to be willing to spend money on needed late-term acquisitions, and they know that they need VETERAN STARTING PITCHING. Kyle Lohse may not be a very good pitcher, but he is a very good sign. Maybe Jeff Luhnow can pull this off, after all. With a little help from his veteran management staff. .