Looking Forward to 2008:  Toronto Blue Jays

Many of the Zips projections will seem pessimistic to Jays fans. Assuming normal luck with injuries Zips sees the Jays scoring somewhere around 770 runs. That’s not going to be enough.

However it’s worth noting that the projections in the Bill James Handbook see the same guys producing about 90 more runs (a remarkable difference considering that both systems tend to be conservative) and that should be enough to keep the team in contention – though I’d expect them to fall just short even so.
I’d expect about 90 wins this year. And I see a disaster as being more likely than making the playoffs. The team can handle almost any given injury better than most, but isn’t well placed to deal with several injuries at once.

Worth noting: Last year no team in the AL had the platoon advantage less frequently than the Jays. I don’t see that as likely to change this year. The team construction isn’t substantially different from last year. In an odd sort of way I approve though. It’s sort of the flip side of not carrying any lefty one out specialists. By using so many good right-handed hitters you kind of challenge the way the other teams are constructed. Their loogies really have no purpose other than to go after Lyle Overbay (since Stairs is in a platoon and Zaun is a real switch-hitter) and that’s not an effective use of one or more roster spots.

And while you’d think that a heavily right-handed team wouldn’t see many left-handed starters most teams aren’t able to skip over their lefty starters. Nobody really carries spot starters any longer.

Position Players:

Catcher: Greg Zaun and Rod Barajas. Zaun is a useful if limited player. He doesn’t do anything really well, doesn’t throw well and doesn’t have a lot of power. But he hits his share of doubles and has good plate discipline. What’s more, he’s an easy guy to find a complimentary player to share time with. You never know with catchers in their mid-30s, but he’s never been asked to handle an abusive load and is a good bet to turn in his usual year.

Barajas is marginal at best as a regular, but he’ll be a substantial upgrade on last year’s backups – who hit a combined .193/.253/.259 (and didn’t throw well.) in just under 230 plate appearances. He has a much better arm than Zaun (though it’s merely good – nothing special) which will help.

Curtis Thigpen is an interesting suspect (he can’t really be called a prospect in my opinion). His bat isn’t likely to be adequate if he can’t handle catcher and he’s not exactly gold glove caliber behind the plate. Still, he is young and he’s already probably better than what some teams are using as a backup. If either Zaun or Barajas went down he rates to be adequate in the short term.

First Base: Lyle Overbay. I’ll take the over on his Zips. Yes, I understand why it’s so poor. He was terrible last year (though he was OK until his injury – it seems clear now that he came back too soon) and comparable players have generally not aged well.

Matt Stairs is the only real option on the roster and unless Overbay gets hurt he won’t see much time there.

His real backup if there’s a serious injury is Adam Lind (with Stairs moving to first and Lind playing left). Lind is also the effective long-term backup of DH and all of the outfield positions and this is a better option than most teams have. I know Lind didn’t play well last year, but I know I’d be happy to take my chances with him if I was running a team.

Second base: Aaron Hill. Zips projects Hill to return to his established level of talent. It’s always a safe way to bet but it would be a huge disappointment to the Jays and their fans. While I’d expect more from Hill than what Zips calls for, I’m content to use the projection for the position because second-basemen get hurt a fair amount and either option rates to be a significant downgrade.

Hill won the Fielding Bible award as the best defensive second-baseman in the majors. Not a shock, the Jays are supposed to have seriously contemplated shifting him to shortstop. I think he’d be adequate there, but I know I’d be reluctant to mess with something that’s so clearly working well

I’d expect John McDonald to be the first choice if Hill went down. He’s probably better at shortstop, but he would do a fine job defensively at second if forced into the lineup. And hit like a backup shortstop.

Russ Adams is still on the 40 man roster. He could end up as an emergency regular and he might play well if he had to play, but I’d be surprised if the Jays could survive a lengthy injury to Hill.

Third base: Scott Rolen (ish) He’s not old but he has been hurt often enough that I can see thinking of him that way. Still probably a fine player if healthy, but ... I have no idea how his current injury will affect him for the rest of the year, but missing the first six weeks of the season with a painful injury obviously isn’t a positive Add in the fact that he’s had two bad years in the last three, and I know I wouldn’t be surprised if all the Jays get out of the position is effectively a good year from Marco Scutaro, And if that happens the Jays offense isn’t likely to be good enough. To contend the Jays are going to need something like 110 or so games form Rolen at the level he played at in 2006.

And a good year from Scutaro. Scutaro is a pretty good backup but he’s already going to be forced into the lineup with much greater frequency than is good for the team.

Rolen’s always been a great fielder. He’s at an age where decline is likely (and his injuries make that more likely) but he’s declining from a high level. Scutaro will certainly be better than Russ Adams (as Chris Dial noted, Adams’ defensive numbers at third last year were as bad as any we’ve seen since the Expos experimented with Michael Barrett.)—in fact he’s likely to be pretty good.

Shortstop: David Eckstein He’s not a wonderful player. In fact you might call him the Greg Zaun of shortstops. As with Zaun, the Jays have paired him up with a complimentary player – John McDonald.

He’s slated to lead off and will be adequate – good plate discipline, decent average and a few doubles. And though it probably won’t matter much, he is a good bunter.

His signing was something of a surprise given that the Jays had signed McDonald to more money than backup infielders normally command, but it’s really not a lot of money. McDonald does hit like a backup shortstop but he really is a fine defensive player (unlike many backups who simply don’t hit)

What’s more, Gibbons has never felt the need to pretend that McDonald can hit. If he’s up in a critical situation Gibbons will pinch-hit for him.

Scutaro can handle the position too if he’s not already needed at third.

Left field: Matt Stairs/ Shannon Stewart. Platooning is a real luxury in these days of 12 men pitching staffs and this is an odd choice of players to use. It’s clearly nothing more than a holding action – presumably for Adam Lind.

Stairs had a fine 2007 but he is 40 and it’s unusual for a merely good player to last that long. Still, there’s no particular reason to expect him to play poorly this year.

Stewart is an odd choice for a platoon partner for Stairs. He has no history of being a real lefty basher (his career platoon splits are among the smallest of all active players). It was generally thought that he was simply invited for a farewell. Reed Johnson was supposed to have the job, but evidently the Jays have judged that he hasn’t fully recovered from his injury. And he’s just not good enough if that’s the case. I honestly hope they’re wrong, but releasing him wasn’t done lightly. He’s a management (and fan and media and ...) favorite.

Stairs is perhaps the worst defensive player on the team, but he never been terrible. Stewart used to have the range to play center field and the arm to play little league. He’s still got pretty good range and his arm isn’t any better. They’ll want Stewart in left in the late innings of close games. He’ll also do some pinch-running.

Last year Stairs did a fair amount of pinch-hitting (mostly for the shortstop) and did a very good job. I don’t expect much pinch-hitting this year – all of the regulars are capable hitters.

Adam Lind is probably the best option in left but the Jays evidently feel he can benefit from some more time in the minors and he’s not likely to be a huge upgrade on what they have in place right now. I’d rather have Lind and an extra roster spot but I do understand the decision to go with Stairs and Stewart.

Center field: Vernon Wells. I have no idea what to expect from Wells. I don’t expect him to be excellent – as he was in both 2003 and 2006. And if he plays as poorly as he did in 2007 the Jays have next to no chance at the playoffs. Again I’d take the over on his Zips though. I can see the logic of pessimism though. He’s never been what you’d call a selective hitter and if he’s lost any bat speed – well hitting pitcher’s pitches is a tough way to make a living at the best of times.

He didn’t have a good year defensively by his standards last year, but his standards are high. He wasn’t bad, or even close to being a problem and if he’s healthy will be a plus in the field.

Right field: Alex Rios. My own best bet to have a breakout season. Not that I expect more that he’s done for the last two seasons. You might want a little more selectivity at the plate but I’d be very reluctant to tinker. His approach is working for him. He’s fast, hits for a decent average and has been steadily adding power.

He’s also as good as there is in right field (and can handle center if needed, he is the real backup in center). Good range and a fine arm.

Designated hitter: Frank Thomas. It says something for how good he’s been that .277/.377/.480 was something of a disappointment. I don’t think anybody expecting more is being realistic though. He’s now 40 and he’s had a lot of injury problems. Lousy spring and age notwithstanding he’s still going to be a positive – I honestly don’t see why Zips is so pessimistic (yes, I know that comparable players haven’t aged particularly well) – assuming he stays healthy (which isn’t a given of course)

Defensive outlook: Last year the Jays might well have been the best defensive team in the league. They’ve upgraded catcher and third and downgraded in left and at shortstop (though not substantially in either position – and there are good defensive players on the bench at both positions). I expect this to be a strong point.

Starting pitching: This rates to be a strong point. There aren’t many pitchers who are a good bet to be better than Halladay.  Normally I’d have concerns about a pitcher whose strikeout rate is as low as Halladay’s has been for the past two years, but he still has fine stuff. He’s throwing quality pitches for strikes and making effective use of a good defense behind him.

Burnett is generally seen as a disappointment (the common complaints being that he won’t pitch through minor injuries and that his stuff is better than his results) but objectively speaking he’s been extremely consistent and pretty good. The only true power pitcher in the rotation.

McGowan, Marcum and Litsch aren’t exactly locks to be as good as they were last year (when they combined for an ERA+ of 112 in 72 starts) but there’s no particular reason to expect any of them to fail this year. What’s more, Gustavo Chacin isn’t a bad option (I figure he’s about as likely to bounce back to being a useful pitcher as any of the projected starters are to fail) and there are a few other interesting options. (Randy Wells and Josh Banks are the most likely right now. Both are reasonable fall-back positions though they’re not likely to be real good right now)

Assuming good luck on the injury front, something very similar to last year (a 4.24 ERA for the starters) is a reasonable bet. Zips projects the the opening day rotation to combine for a 4.12 ERA, but you have to expect some others to make a few starts.

Bullpen: Casey Janssen will be missed and there’s no real way to know what they’ll get from B. J. Ryan. Even so, the bullpen is deep and talented. I think Scott Downs is wasted as in the one out guy role but you can’t complain about the results. He might step into the Janssen role (primary setup guy) but I doubt it (and it would only happen if Ryan can’t pitch). Brandon League was supposed to have that role last year and might be able to step in this year if required, though I’d bet against it (I think he’s more likely to be a generic but useful middle reliever) Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet and Brian Wolfe can all pitch – I’d have no fear of using them in any situation, Randy Wells will likely see mostly garbage time, but he’s more likely to contribute than most rule V picks. With today’s 7 man bullpen you can afford to carry a rule V pick there. I don’t really understand why the Jays were interested in Armado Benitez. Seems to me he isn’t a lock to out-pitch Wells and I’d certainly rather have Wells’ future.

Accardo will be a plus regardless of whether he’s used as a primary setup man or as the closer (though I don’t expect him to be as good as he was in 2007).  In fact it would be nice to be able to use him as a setup guy since that suggests that Ryan is back and effective – though it would be silly to expect him to be the light-out closer of 2006. Nobody stays at that level.for long. The Jays would be happy to get the 2004 or 2005 version.

Manager: I don’t think John Gibbons is anything too special and I also expect him to be fired as soon as the Jays hit a rough spell (and that happens to all teams). His strong suits are making effective use of whatever hand he’s dealt (he has less say than most managers in team construction) and man management (his run-ins with Ted Lilly and Shea Hillenbrand notwithstanding)

I’d expect him to be replaced by another company man. If he’s replaced with any kind of name manager that could be a sign that J. P. Riccardi is on his way out. Riccardi will certianly be under a lot of pressure if this is yet another year on the perpetual 5 year plan – as I expect.