Looking Forward to 2008: Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals got a new ballpark in DC.  That’s about as good as the news is going to get for 2008.  They have a good youth movement going in some areas and are still struggling in other areas. 
There are a few additions to the 2008 team.  Former Mets Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge have moved south.  Cristian Guzman will be playing shortstop after a couple of years out.  The Nationals manager, Manny Acta, also over from the Mets, likes to play the kids.  He wanted Milledge, so the trade went through.  Unfortunately playing the kids is going to involve some growing pains.  They do have a pretty good lineup and some talent in the rotation, and a pretty good bullpen.  But they are just spoilers this season, and they reveled in spoiling the Mets 2007 last year.

Here are the players:

Catcher – Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, Wil Nieves
The injuries have piled on Lo Duca already, but he’s 35, so I don’t expect him to be getting any better.  And Johnny Estrada was a Met for about a week.  This corps is going to hit like a corpse.  Lo Duca is aged, and his bat has eroded, as have his throwing skills.  Estrada won’t take a walk, and Nieves is 31 and has had half a cup of coffee thusfar.  This won’t be an improvement, and could be detrimental.

First Base – Nick Johnson
Nick Johnson was supposed to be the Yankees next grand first baseman.  He’s got a terrific batting eye, and is really starting to hit the ball.  He really missed lots of development time through injuries, but 2005-06 were the types of season Johnson is supposed to put up.  He will need to repeat 2006’s solid 149 OPS+ to keep the Nats moving up.  He’s a very good hitter, and we’ll see this season if he’s peaking or if he’s about done.

Second Base – Ron Belliard; Felipe Lopez
Belliard is a good little player.  He posts decent marks for a second baseman and is about average with the glove.  He’s kind of the annoying player that always gets the late inning hit to beat you.  He’s not a great player, but he is a solid average performer.  Felipe Lopez is sharing time with the acquisition of Cristian Guzman.  Lopez played short last season, mostly, but was one of the worst all-around players in baseball.  He didn’t hit, and his fielding was poor as well.  He performed below his norms, but it was bad enough to get displaced.  I don’t think the Nats are going to improve their offensive output at second, nor decrease their runs allowed.

Third Base – Ryan Zimmermann
Ryan Zimmermann grew up playing alongside David Wright of he Mets, albeit a few years younger.  Zimmermann has a ways to go to catch Wright with the bat, but he is already a solid glove man.  Zimmermann was about the third best fielding 3B last year behind Pedro Feliz and Scott Rolen.  With Rolen moving to the AL, and the inability of Pedro Feliz to be properly recognized, Zimmermann is a good bet to win the Gold Glove this season.  He’s going to break out, but he’ll probably just see incremental improvement this season, possibly adding about ten runs to the Nats offense above the 2007 output.

Shortstop – Cristian Guzman
At the start of the 2002 season, Peter Gammons remarked that Guzman might be better than Derek Jeter.  Uh, no.  Guzman spiraled down to 2005, but has come back from the end of 2007 and has played pretty well.  He’s going to be better than Lopez was last season, I suspect, but not much.  Lopez’ 2007 was in line with most of Guzman’s career.  His defense will be about ten runs better though.  There is a net positive of about fifteen runs from the change.

Left Field – Dmitri Young; Wily Mo Pena
Young challenged for the batting crown last year, but has to learn to stay away from the buffet.  He’s on the DL to start 2008, and so Wily Mo is getting some at bats.  Pena started the season hitting nothing – as of this writing, he’s posting an OPS+ of 16.  He can hit a little – not enough to be a left fielder everyday, but as a fill-in, and a bat off the bench, Pena is a solid contributor. 
Young is a pretty good player.  He had an awful season in Detroit a few years ago, but he’s really rebounded.  He is getting older, and is injury-prone.  The Nats are probably going to lose some offense compared to ’07 as Pena gets more PT,a nd Young regresses.

Center Field – Lastings Milledge
Lastings Milledge showed the excitement and appreciation to the fans for making it to the major leagues and playing pretty well.  For that, he was labeled “not knowing his place as a rookie” and shipped out of New York.  Milledge is a very good prospect, and starting everyday in centerfield as a 23-year old is a good way to have a good major league career.  Milledge’s defense still needs some work, and he’ll learn some on the job, but he’s going to be good.  He’s going to improve on Nook Logan by about twenty runs.

Right Field – Austin Kearns
I am a big Austin Kearns fan.  Kearns has incredible defensive instincts and catches everything hit his way.  His career defensive marks are very high.  Kearns hasn’t been able to hit like he did his rookie season, and last season saw his power dip.  He’s also started 2008 slowly.  Kearns would be very valuable if he hit more, but as it is, he is an above average right fielder.  His glove is just that good.  He should improve back to his career levels this season, which would gain the Nats about five to ten runs.

Bench – Lopez, Pena, Estrada, Rob Mackowiak, Aaron Boone
That’s right – Aaron Boone.  The bench has what a bench usually needs.  A dual position middle infielder in Lopez, a backup catcher, a power hitter, a utility player, and then someone people can go “What?  I thought he was retired?” This bench has it all.  It’s properly constructed even if the particular players aren’t the strongest.  Pena is certainly as good of a 4th outfielder as you’ll find around the league, and could probably start over some of the players presently starting. 

Rotation – Odalis Perez, Matt Chico, Tim Redding, John Lannan, Shawn Hill
Tim Redding and Odalis Perez were once future stars.  They are still pretty good pitchers – when healthy. Last season, the Nats had ONE pitcher throw more than 120 innings.  This season, they should do much better than that, and that should help their overall performance.  Chico and Lannan are young lefties, and Lannan has been super-tough so far this season.  These kids can actually perform, and as long as they don’t get victimized by their team, they can win some games.  This rotation should improve by about ten runs.

Bullpen – Jon Rauch, Chad Cordero, Ray King, Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera, Mike O’Connor, Joel Hanrahan
Cordero has been a good closer, but his arm is blown out.  I watched him throw an inning against the Mets a few weeks ago, and he topped out at 75 mph – on his fastball.  I didn’t think he’d ever throw another MLB inning, but he did – well, not a complete inning before his arm blew out again.  He is done.  That turns the closer role over to Rauch.  Rauch is a solid reliever and should do well in the role.  Ray King has already been sent out.  He is getting bombed by RHBs, and simply cannot be allowed to face them.  Ayala has been terrific early on, and Rivera and O’Connor have some promise.  This bullpen should be about as good as any in the division.  How much it will matter, I can’t say.

Results – Last year the Nationals scored 673 runs and allowed 783.  They have barely improved.  They will allow a couple less, and score a couple more, but it will still be a 73-89 record at the end of the season.  They have some talent and could compete in 2009 or 2010 with the expected development of their young players.