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— BTF's Preseason Previews

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Los Angeles Angels Preview

Los Angeles Overview of Anaheim

Anyone sick of the name games yet? While the on-field team was able to produce the organization’s first division title since 1986, it was the off-the-field antics of the front office that got all the attention this winter, plastering all of Los Angeles with bright red signs emblazoned with the team logo that say simply, “City of Angels”. Owner Arte Moreno’s on-going quest to build Yankees West has polarized Southern California baseball fans, but it hasn’t stopped those fans from setting team records for season ticket sales. Moreno has also publicly mused about starting his own cable channel to carry Angel games, building a new stadium, and even moving to Las Vegas if he can’t get everything he wants in Anaheim. Of course, all that would come many years down the line, but there’s nothing like an owner wielding the power to take his ball and go find a new home.

Moreno’s off-field plans have partly obscured his on-field property, which is a shame, since it’s a quality product. The AnaheimLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim come into the 2005 season as the odds-on favorites to win the AL West for the second year running. They boast the reigning AL MVP, two of the best young position prospects in the league, one of the best bullpens in the league, and a deep and versatile bench.

On the other hand, the Angels also have to deal with their share of question marks. Their new third baseman is an unseasoned rookie with the potential to strike out 200 times, their new centerfielder is old enough to remember the French and Indian Wars, their rotation is more shallow and shaky than Jennifer Lopez’s wedding vows, and they still don’t have a DH. And what’s the deal with Chone Figgins spelling his name that way? Questions abound!

The Recent Past

After falling back to earth in 2003, the Angels reached the postseason for the second time in three years despite some brutal performances by their starting rotation and a rash of injuries that threatened to decimate the team. Fortunately for the Angels, an early season hot streak gave them cushion enough to absorb some major losses, and the deep bench really came through. Chone Figgins, Jeff DaVanon, and Robb Quinlan all came off the bench to play major roles in keeping the ship afloat amidst a sea of injuries.

Ultimately, though, it was all about the Impaler. Vladimir Guerrero polished off his first MVP season by hitting .371/.431/.733 with 10 homers in September, including a crucial four-game series against Texas in which he hit an unholy 12-for-17, with 5 homers and 9 RBIs. The Halos won 7 of their last 8 meaningful games as they ran down a floundering Oakland A’s squad to win the West.

Despite getting swept by the Red Sox in the ALDS, and losing several key members of the 2002 World Series team, the Angels seem primed to win their first back-to-back division titles ever.

The Apparent Present

The Infield

Over the last three years, whenever someone wrote an article on Darin Erstad playing first base, you could have bet your house that somebody would say something to the effect of, “The Angels are stupid for not playing Erstad in centerfield.” Whether or not this is true, these people need to give up the fight, because it’s not going to happen, not for you, not for Erstad (who has publicly stated that he prefers center). That point was made last season when, at one point, manager Mike Scioscia sent Quinlan, a first baseman whose outfield defense can best be described as “tries really hard”, into the outfield instead of Erstad.

One of the more unusual footnotes to the Angels’ success last year is how little offense they’ve been able to squeeze out of their 1B and DH positions. Since the 2002 championship team, the combined 1B/DH OPS has gone from .827 to .787 to .726. That’s right, Tony Womack would have fit right in as a 2004 Angel 1B/DH. That being said, Erstad did tack on 104 points of OPS on his aborted 2003 season, which elevates him into the stratospheric “not necessarily harmful” category of the current crop of AL first basemen. He is a terrific receiver at first base, and of course, no first baseman in baseball runs down the shallow pop fly better than he. There’s been some commotion about Erstad drawing 8 walks in 27 spring PAs, and there’s always the possibility he’ll turn into the next Tony Phillips. I doubt it’ll happen; expect more of the same from Erstad as Angel fans patiently wait for the rest of his very large contract ($17M over the next two seasons) to run out.

Erstad’s standing within the organization makes things very difficult for Casey Kotchman. Widely regarded as one of the best prospects around, Kotchman hit an aggregate .368 between Double- and Triple-A, with 33 doubles and 8 homers and a 24/32 BB/K ratio in 339 PAs. Usually, a kid with those numbers who just turned 22 and carries a reputation as a Gold Glove-quality defender has a job waiting for them in the Show, but the Angels are actually starting him in Triple-A so he can play everyday. Yeesh.

Chone Figgins will man second base until Adam Kennedy’s knee is back to normal. Finally getting his big break last season, Scioscia used Figgins to cork many of the defensive holes in the Angels’ injury-riddled line-up. As a result, Figgins ended up playing every position on the field except for first and catcher. Defensively, Figgins needs to stay in the infield, since he often takes bad routes to balls in the gap, and has problems with line drives. Offensively, he’s fast. Anything in the gap is a possible triple — his 17 triples came in 2nd in the league to Carl Crawford, and he swiped 34 bases in 47 attempts. He’s not a star, but he’ll draw some walks, gets on base at a decent clip, and will do all the things non-stars need to do to help their team. He’s one of those guys whose overall utility would make him useful to any team in the league.

Kennedy blew out his knee last September, and will miss at least the first month of the season. How his defensive range recovers will be key, since before the injury Kennedy was a fantastic defender who went to his right better than any second baseman in the AL (a pox on Bret Boone for stealing the Gold Gloves that should rightfully be Kennedy’s). After getting blanked by lefties all 2003, the Angels went back to protecting AK against most lefties. If Kennedy can’t come back 100%, the Angels won’t miss a beat — Figgins is more than capable of playing second base everyday.

All eyes will be on Dallas McPherson as many people are looking for him to step up this season and fill the gap left by Troy Glaus’ departure. To fill Glaus’ normal place in the team trainer’s room, McPherson promptly suffered a herniated disk in his lower back a few weeks ago, but he should be ready by Opening Day. Glaus didn’t play much third base last year, just 19 games, but Angel third sackers did hit .297/.355/.478, and if McPherson hits that, I’ll definitely renew my sponsorship of his B-R page. McPherson’s numbers speak for themselves: .313/.370/.680 at Triple-A Salt Lake and a combined .319/.410/.635 between 2003 and 2004 at Double-A Arkansas. He has power to all fields, and scouts absolutely love his toughness and work ethic.

       BB/PA%     K/PA%     BB/K%
MLB      6.98     39.53      0.18
AAA      8.16     33.69      0.24
AA      12.71     23.74      0.54
A       13.08     22.75      0.57
This is the part that creates doubters. As McPherson’s advanced through the minors, his once solid walk rate has dropped, while his strikeout rate, which was always high, jumped dramatically. Even tossing out the 40 ABs at the MLB level, the trend is worrying. McPherson looks like he’s going to need an adjustment period, as well as some platoon protection — he was just 1-12 with 6 Ks against lefties in his September audition, including a humiliating 3-pitch strikeout where Jaime Moyer baffled him with two change-ups and a 25 MPH curveball on the hands.

That being said, McPherson is gonna be a good one. Unlike, say, Russ Branyan, McPherson’s power numbers come not just from his homers. The “Three True Outcome” types are essentially two-trick ponies (homers, walks), while the consistently high batting averages, the 35 doubles and the 14 triples McPherson hit in just 135 games in the minors last year speak to his ability to tattoo line drives and handle more than just mistake pitches in the zone. He runs well for 6'4", 230 lbs. — 21 triples and 29-43 stolen over the last two years speaks to his abilities. He’s an athlete in a way that Branyan and other TTOs are not, but the benefits won’t occur immediately. The Angels will be patient with him, if only because they don’t have any other long-term option at third.

The new guy at short with the big-time contract is former Gold Glover Orlando Cabrera. Fresh of the historic comeback against the Yankees in the ALDS (and an incidental sweep of the Cardinals in the Series), Cabrera cashed in for $32 million over the next four years. Whether or not Cabrera is worth it is another matter. The man he’s replacing, David Eckstein, had an OPS+ of 87 in over the last four years; Cabrera’s been at 86.25. The defensive difference, though, is pronounced; at his most excellent Angels blog, Blackhawk Waterloo combined Dave Pinto’s PMR with Chris Dial’s DPI to rank shortstop defense (you can read about it here, and check out the rest of his PMR to Runs as well). Cabrera comes out over 24 runs better than Eckstein in 2004. To be fair, Eckstein was banged up for much of the year, but better is better. It’s not worth $8 million per, though, and since the contract is backloaded, the Angels will be paying Cabrera $10 million when he’s 34. If Kennedy is healthy, the Angels will once again boast one of the better defensive infields in the league.

For a guy who claims to have lost 20 pounds every winter, Ben Molina still looks really round. Between a strained left calf and a fractured right index finger, Benji was limited to just 97 games last year. When healthy, he had his usual Ben Molina season: .717 OPS and lots of DP ground balls. One disturbing trend: his caught stealing percentage was just at just 26%, way down from the 45% of the last two seasons, and he allowed 6 passed balls in just 89 games caught. Molina’s mobility both in getting out of his crouch and sliding in front of pitches has taking a visible step backwards — he’s taken to trying backhand balls in the dirt — and his injuries allowed back-up brother Jose Molina step in and gun down 23-of-45 runners while becoming Bartolo Colon’s personal catcher. Ben Molina was awarded a one year contract for 2005, but count on this being his last season as an Angel while they wait for Jeff Mathis to mature.

The Outfield

Vlad will be back, of course, which means more exciting one-pitch at-bats for Angel fans. The concerns about his back were unfounded, as Guerrero appeared in a team-leading 156 games while dropping a nifty 154 OPS+ on the league despite a nagging knee injury that stayed with him for much of the year. Guerrero is still only 29 years old, so as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to continue to hit ankle-high pitches into the bleachers.

Joining Vlad in the outfield for 2005 will be (supposedly) healthy Garret Anderson and a (supposedly) ageless Steve Finley. If healthy and back to form, Anderson and Guerrero would form a deadly 1-2 punch in the middle of the line-up. Of course, that’s a big IF — Anderson was diagnosed with brutal arthritis in his upper back, neck and shoulders last season which kept him out for 50 games — right after he signed a four year contract extension worth $48 million. 2002-2003 were the only seasons since 1995 where he’s posted better than a 105 OPS+. There’s no telling how big an impact his arthritic back will have — last year he patrolled the outfield like a 85-year-old woman suffering from osteoporosis, and so far this spring is just a measly 4-for-24 at the plate. The combination of age and arthritis will very likely drag him back down to his pre-2002 seasons (at least), when he was one of the most overrated players in the league, and his $12M per contract is realy going to start to hurt.

Chalk up 2004 as another solid season for Finley. The man’s hit around .275/.350/.500 since going to Arizona in 1999, and won his fifth Gold Glove at the age of 39. There was some slippage in his numbers last season, but much of that may be attributed to moving from Bank One to Dodger Stadium. More distressing is that his Gold Glove flies in the face of a projected -17 UZR, and Dave Pinto’s PR has him at a nifty -5.8. While Finley’s first name is now officially “ageless Steve”, there really is no such thing as “ageless”; no 40-year-old is as fast as he was when he was 30. While Finley’s funky off-season workouts keep him in remarkable shape, his range, even to the naked eye, just isn’t there anymore. The Angels have him signed up for $14M for the next two seasons. I’m optimistic that his offense will hold up, but the outfield gaps are going to be busy this year.

Jeff DaVanon had another fine season as the 4th outfielder, getting some hits, drawing some walks, playing decent defense, stealing bases — everything a good 4th is supposed to do. The problem for the Angels is that DaVanon is slated to start as the team’s DH against righties. He’s got a little pop and very good speed, but so long as the Angels are content to settle for soft production at DH, the offense is going to hover around the middle of the league.

The Bench

The Angels won in 2004 despite extended absences from the likes of Glaus and Anderson, and got nothing from supposed DH Tim Salmon, and injury-depleted seasons from Eckstein and Molina. Yet they still managed to win the division in part because the team was so deep. Robb Quinlan hit a ton before going out for the season with a bad left oblique muscle, and of course Figgins played everywhere.

The 2005 Angels will have an even deeper bench, and not just because Shane Halter won’t be sitting on it. Quinlan will split time at first and third to protect McPherson against lefties, and likely see some time at DH. Newcomer Juan Rivera, acquired from the Nationals for angry Jose Guillen, should also see time at DH, as well as spelling Guerrero in right field. Rivera’ll be going into his year 27 season, and finished the second half of 2004 with a post-All-Star .358/.413/.526. 24-year-old Maicer Izturis, Cesar’s little brother, takes the utility infielder spot. Izturis had a huge 2004 at Triple-A Edmonton, but didn’t hit much after his promotion to the Expos. Like his brother, he showed some flashes of future offense, and while he doesn’t quite have Cesar’s range, has looked very good on the double-play in spring training. Rivera and Quinlan will see time against lefty pitching, but Scioscia’s nice problem will be to find time for Rivera, Quinlan, and Izturis to get decent playing time. Josh Paul will be the third catcher, continuing his stint as managerial intern to Mike Scioscia.

I can’t wrap up the regular line-up section without a good word for Tim Salmon, whose 16th season in the Angel organization will be spent in rehab. He’s getting very well compensated for his time ($10 million), and with the large signings over the last two seasons and the organization brimming with slow right-handed batters, there’s virtually no chance of him receiving a contract from the Angels after this season. It’s too bad he never got a chance to play in an All-Star game, but he’ll always have the admiration of this fan. Vaya con Dios, King Fish.

The Rotation

The weak 2003 rotation issues were supposed to be solved with the signing of Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar. Colon in particular was supposed to head a vastly improved rotation, but things didn’t quite work out that way. Between his last start in April and his first start in July, Colon went 5-8 with an ERA of 6.95. The explanation? He had a bad back during that time, but both he and the coaches thought he could work though it. Who would have figured that carrying giant man-boobs would cause back problems? To his credit, Colon is far too talented to be that bad for that long. From July 9th until the end of the season Colon was exactly the pitcher the Angels were hoping for: 13-4, 3.65 ERA, and a 37/86 BB/Ks in 111 innings. The giant contract the Angels signed him to also apparently allowed Colon to buy the Texas Rangers — he absolutely owned them to a tune of 6-0 and 2.14 ERA.

But let’s not be all positive here. As I wrote in this space last year, that 250 lbs. he’s carting around isn’t all muscle, and as he gets older and puts more mileage on his arm and body, physical problems, such as the back issues he experienced last year, have to be expected, and his performance will suffer. The Angels are already spending $11 million per on him; they would do well to invest in a few personal trainers or somesuch scheme to get Colon to shed some weight. Of course, Colon would have to get himself motivated for that to happen, and he’s never shown an interest in the salad bar.

Escobar, on the other hand, was the only consistently solid rotation starter in 2004, despite what his 11-12 record might say. Escobar’s 3.93 ERA was 9th in the league, and Used exclusively as a starter for the first time in his career and away from the turf infields that had been his bane, Escobar set personal highs in innings (208.1) and strikeouts (191), and was so strong down the stretch the Angels began using him on short rest for the last month of the season. He still has a problem with overthrowing when he’s in a jam, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Escobar improve slightly on his 2004 season.

After years of being essentially a one-pitch wonder, Jarrod Washburn has started throwing his change and curve in earnest last year, started throwing down in the strike zone for the first time in his career, and actually went from the league’s most extreme flyball pitcher to a goundball/flyball neutral pitcher. Results still looked the same, though. Bothered by an inflamed ligament in his left ribcage that put him on the DL twice in 2004, Washburn pitched only 149.1 innings, and his mediocre 4.64 ERA doesn’t reflect how poorly he pitched last season. The Angels extended him for this season, but Washburn has gotten to the point where he’s much more expensive than he deserves to be. It’s too bad; in 2001 and 2002 he was one of the best lefties in baseball, but hasn’t been able to build on those seasons. If healthy, he’s good enough to return to form, but there’s only so far an 87 MPH fastball will get you in the big leagues.

I’ve been pushing John Lackey in this space for two years now, and his ERA+ has gone from 92 to …. 98. His DIPS ERA, however, dropped from 4.63 to a very respectable 4.11, in large part because he dropped his HR% from one every 6.6 innings to less than one per 9 innings while maintaining his walk and strikeout rates. His conventional stats look like he’s been running in place, but Lackey’s on the verge of being a very good pitcher. His biggest challenge will be in using his sinker and change more often in fastball situations; his reliance on his fastball and inability to change speeds consistently are the one great obstacle between Lackey and a really big contract. I thought he’d take his step forward last year. I expect that step to come this year.

Paul Byrd is the new guy in the rotation, signaling the end of the Ramon Ortiz era as well as Aaron Sele’s reign of terror. Over the last four seasons, Byrd’s posted ERA+s of 109, 132, 0 and 110. The big zero was 2003, when Byrd underwent surgery on his right elbow. Perhaps bolstered by Leo Mazzone’s witchcraft, Byrd came back strong, showing a low-90s fastball, a heavy sinker, and outstanding control (19 walks in 114.1 innings), and earned himself a one-year contract with the Angels. Pitching coach Bud Black works best with guys like Byrd, sinkerballing types who use their infield defense to help them out.

If there’s one big problem with the rotation is that these five guys are it. If someone goes down for a while, Scot Shields could step in for a while, no problem, but the bullpen would be a lot weaker. There isn’t anyone in the minors who’s close to being ready right now, with the possible exception of Ervin Santana. There are also no aces in this hand, but a couple of face cards. Colon is a great bounce-back candidate, weight problems and all, Escobar will continue be solid, and Lackey is a good bet to improve. A typical Byrd season won’t be world-rendering, but it would be a massive improvement over Ortiz and Sele’s recent rotation antics. And with the Angels, there’s always …

The Bullpen

Frankie Rodriguez has real ultimate power, and by that I mean he’s totally sweet. A Gagne-esque 2004 sets the stage for him to inherit the closer spot, and there’s little doubt he’ll be very effective in the role. Mike Scioscia’s shown a willingness to use K-Rod for more than the one inning that Troy Percival was always limited to, which helped make the Angel bully one of the best in the league last year. There’s nothing like being able to bring in a dominator to squelch 7th-inning rallies — you get a lot more 9th inning leads that way.

One of the reasons the Angel pen was so good the past few seasons was its depth: Donnelly, Shields, Percival, Rodriguez, Ben Weber, and the random last guy du année kept the team ERA down even as the starting rotation’s ERA reached low earth orbit, keeping the team in games that they had no business being in. Brendan Donnelly has been outstanding for the past three seasons, and his face will, unlike last season, start the season in one piece, and he and Shields will be promoted from middle inning relief to late inning relief. Both use fastballs with good movement and sliders with great movement to rack up around a K per inning. Donnelly likes to work up in the zone, and induces an extreme number of flyball outs (.65 GB/FB), while Shields, who doesn’t throw quite as hard, induces an extreme number groundball outs (1.93 GB/FB).

The back end of this year’s edition features Kevin Gregg and Esteban Yan, neither of whom will be as effective as Weber, Donnelly or Shields. Gregg started out great (1.39 ERA for the first two months of the season), and then melted down badly, with a 5.86 ERA from that point on. Gregg owns a low-90s fastball and a nasty, nasty splitter, which he managed to throw 13 wild pitches with in just 87.2 innings (including a record four-tying in one inning). Until he learns to throw the split consistently for strikes, the rest of the league is just going to sit on his fastball.

I admit to a personal bias against Esteban Yan — I hate the guy. I’ve owned him in four different fantasy league teams over the last seven seasons, and he’s been awful ever time, so imagine my joy when the Angels signed him for a cool couple of million beans. I can say with complete confidence that Yan will be awful this season. His at-a-glance numbers disguise a horrible, yet well-known, fact: he still sucks. Yan’s 3.83 ERA was a product of generous 2.55 ERA at Comerica Park, which masked a normal 5.82 road ERA. He owns a fastball that can touch 99 on the gun, but has no movement, and has problems setting his fastball up because he has problems throwing his breaking ball for strikes. He’s going to suck. Count on it.

The Brain Trust

The Coaches

Two playoffs in three seasons for manager Mike Scioscia earned him a contract extension with the Angels for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and his handling of the Jose Guillen incident won him the respect of many of his players, as well as his peers. Larry Bowa fans, such as Larry Bowa, could learn a few things about staying even-keeled in the face of losing streaks and injuries. Scioscia also earns points for being creative, allowing guys like Quinlann to play positions they normally wouldn’t. He and pitching coach Bud Black deserve major kudos for their handling of the bullpen, consistently getting maximum mileage out of a series of cast-offs and rookies.

Now that Glaus and Eckstein are gone, Billy Hatcher’s distain for drawing walks will be almost universally shared within the Angel roster. However, the least walking-est team in the league still manages to score their share of runs the old-fashioned way — the Angels led the league in batting average and stolen bases, and no team goes from first to third better than the Halos. That being said, they were only 7th in runs scored.

Bill Stoneman

Stoneman generally gets fairly high marks relative to his peers, but it’s time to wonder how much of that is deserved. The 2002 World Series team was comprised of a group Stoneman largely inherited from Bill Bavasi and Donny Rowland. During that winter, Stoneman pretty much did nothing, hoping the chemistry from 2002 would work again the next season. It didn’t, to the tune of a 77-85 record, so Stoneman got crackin’ and signed a whole bunch of guys, several of whom propelled the Angels to a division title in 2004.

However, I’m beginning to think last winter was as much luck as it was planning.

  • The signing of Vlad was a gift from beyond—it was Guerrero’s agent who approached the Angels, and only because the Mets were too afraid of the condition of Guerrero’s back to give him the years he wanted. The Dodgers’ then-GM Dan Evans reportedly had a done deal, but that was killed off by Bud Selig’s meddling and McCourt’s lack of funds
  • Bartolo Colon hasn’t exactly worked out yet, thought that should change for the better.
  • Shane Halter worked out exactly as expected.
  • Lost prospect Bobby Jenks when he failed to protect him on the 40-man this winter. Can’t let that Josh Paul get away!

This past winter offered Stoneman a chance to build on a 92-win team with some exciting young talent as well as veteran stars. So what’d he do? He went out and signed 752-year-old Steve Finley to a 2-year contract and 30-year-old shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a 4-year deal at $8M per, while letting Jared Weaver take a hike after drafting him knowing exactly what his contract demands would be. Moreover, the signing of Cabrera blocks prospects Erick Aybar in the near future and Brandon Wood or Sean Rodriguez in the longer term.

The combined $20 million Garret Anderson and Darin Erstad will be getting for the next two seasons are going to really hurt

On the other hand, Stoneman’s smaller moves have been very sharp:

  • Jumping on Kelvim Escobar early last year, before the market opened up.

·         Sign Jose Guillen to what turned out to be a relatively cheap contract, and got plenty of bang for his buck. When Guillen had to be traded over the winter, Stoneman managed to flip him for two good young players in Rivera and Izturis. Moreover, Stoneman’s backing of Scioscia’s suspension, and subsequent trade of Guillen, showed exactly the type of strong, united front a good front office is supposed to show in the face of discipline issues.

  • Flipped Ramon Ortiz for Reds pitching prospect Dustin Moseley when everyone knew the Angels were just looking to dump Ortiz. Moseley would have made the Opening Day roster had he not come down with an injury
  • Paul Byrd, the guy replacing Ortiz, accepted just a one-year contract at a reasonable $5M. If his surgically repaired elbow explodes, the team’s off the hook in a few months.

The Near Future

There’s no mysteries here: the Angels should win the west. Even a slap-hitting Anderson will be better than the Anderson of last season, and there’s no way Steve Finley, whatever doubts there may be about his range, could be as bad as Anderson was in centerfield last season. DaVanon/Rivera should improve the DH slot, and McPherson has only to not completely stink for the offense to build upon last year. Pitching-wise, the rotation is stronger than it has been since 2002, but will need to avoid the major injury bug throughout the season. Even if they don’t, Shields’ presence will allow them to dodge at least a few bumps and bruises.

However, the AL West is still extremely strong. Seattle, with Richie Sexon and Adrian Beltre, is much improved, though they still won’t have enough pitching to really compete. Texas shocked the world with their strong 2004 campaign, but they had a couple of big career performances that will be subject to gravity, and I’m not a believer that their pitching staff can repeat their impressive performance. Oakland will come back with an improved offense, but too many things have to go right with their revamped rotation and bullpen to say with any confidence that the A’s can win another 90+ games. Last year, I predicted the Angels would win 95 games, but that the A’s would win the division. This year, the Angels have a shot at the 98-win mark, and will take the division outright.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Rodriguez    2.82   6   2  61   0    83.0   57   26   32  116   6 
Donnelly     3.31   4   1  59   0    68.0   54   25   24   75   5 
Shields      3.63   8   3  53   6   119.0  111   48   37  103   9 
Escobar      4.02  13   7  41  26   179.0  167   80   69  162  16 
Gregg        4.12   8   5  41  17   131.0  130   60   40  107  14 
Bergman*     4.15   4   3  51   4    89.0   94   41   24   61   9 
Lackey       4.21  15  10  33  32   201.0  206   94   58  149  22 
Byrd         4.55  11  10  26  26   170.0  192   86   29  109  27 
Washburn*    4.60  13  10  30  30   180.0  196   92   51  113  23 
Colon        4.60  16  12  33  33   219.0  232  112   70  154  28 
Hensley      4.68   6   4  30  17   123.0  132   64   36   88  18 
Yan          4.72   4   5  61   0    80.0   83   42   29   62  11 
Watson*      4.75   2   3  42   0    53.0   53   28   25   38   5 
Fischer      4.99   5   4  24  21   119.0  129   66   40   84  19 
Bootcheck    5.21   8   9  29  28   171.0  195   99   56  100  27 
Woods*       5.28  10  10  29  29   167.0  184   98   73  101  22 
Moseley      5.40   5   7  23  23   135.0  155   81   50   81  22 
Santana      5.51   5   7  21  21   116.0  123   71   55   99  21 
Dunn         5.66   6   7  43   7    89.0   85   56   61   79  11 
Cyr*         5.72   4   5  21  16    85.0   90   54   50   60  12 
James        5.91   3   4  26  17   105.0  131   69   31   50  22 
Bittner*     6.08   7  10  27  20   111.0  119   75   76   75  14 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Guerrero     rf  .333  .405  .568 145 558 186 32  3 31 100 109  64  68 18  8 
Anderson*    lf  .299  .333  .488 138 551 165 37  2 21  67  88  30  77  4  3 
Cabrera      ss  .285  .336  .410 161 620 177 43  2 10  76  69  48  56 18  5 
McPherson*   3b  .275  .341  .513 139 501 138 26  6 27  88  85  47 153 14  8 
Figgins#     3b  .297  .357  .412 143 546 162 22 13  5  84  48  51  85 27 13 
Finley*      cf  .251  .317  .420 150 541 136 22  3 21  72  76  51  83  8  8 
Rivera       rf  .304  .357  .466 130 425 129 28  1 13  56  59  35  52  4  2 
Erstad*      1b  .271  .325  .373 129 531 144 26  2  8  75  57  37  72 17  5 
Kennedy*     2b  .288  .342  .411 140 465 134 24  3  9  63  55  33  72 17  8 
Kotchman*    1b  .316  .369  .444 114 414 131 32  0  7  55  55  30  38  3  0 
Izturis#     2b  .286  .357  .369 138 507 145 22  4  4  76  45  53  52 20 10 
Gorneault    lf  .271  .318  .442 136 498 135 31  3 16  82  69  31 132  8  5 
Salmon       rf  .258  .357  .431 120 415 107 26  2 14  54  58  59  79  3  2 
Quinlan      1b  .304  .351  .442 116 425 129 24  4  9  60  53  29  71  5  4 
Callaspo#    ss  .269  .327  .327 138 520 140 14  2  4  72  49  42  22 21  7 
Mathis       c   .243  .322  .377 120 440 107 22  2 11  68  51  49  83  4  1 
DaVanon#     cf  .280  .367  .436 114 314  88 15  2 10  48  43  44  55 14  6 
Sorensen#    2b  .265  .332  .349 112 415 110 15  4  4  63  37  39  73 18 15 
Molina       c   .272  .306  .396 110 386 105 18  0 10  35  50  17  32  0  1 
Nieves       c   .268  .299  .382 105 380 102 19  3  6  45  40  14  61  4  1 
Prieto*      cf  .256  .327  .323 118 399 102 13  4  2  58  33  40  49 16 13 
Zinter#      1b  .238  .313  .400  94 260  62 15  0  9  33  38  27  64  0  0 
Prieto       2b  .240  .298  .336  89 292  70 13  0  5  70  26  22  58  4  3 
Molina       c   .265  .298  .338  83 272  72 12  1  2  25  25  10  59  0  2 
Pride*       lf  .255  .311  .385  69 247  63 12  1  6  55  29  18  53  5  6 
Budde        c   .207  .260  .302 103 358  74 10  0  8  44  36  24  86  2  3 
Merloni      3b  .265  .337  .384  76 185  49 11  1  3  23  21  18  39  1  3 
Paul         c   .241  .294  .311  78 241  58  9  1  2  21  21  17  52  3  3 
Gregorio     c   .198  .242  .320  56 197  39 10  1  4  18  19  10  50  1  1 

ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player and role should temper what the computer says.
David Peng Posted: March 29, 2005 at 08:35 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralLA Angels

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   1. Wheelhouse (S Ransom) Posted: March 29, 2005 at 12:20 PM (#1222472)
I admit to a personal bias against Esteban Yan — I hate the guy.

Me too. He's awful. Among mediocre players, there is none more hated than Esteban Yan.
   2. Wheelhouse (S Ransom) Posted: March 29, 2005 at 12:29 PM (#1222490)
By the way, excellent preview. Informative and well-written.
   3. Matthew Rich Posted: March 29, 2005 at 02:41 PM (#1222685)
Really good article, David. The links to B-R are a nice touch.

I'm not familiar with the Angels' pitching prospects -- who would step in if one of the starters went down? You say that nobody is close to being ready save Santana, but presumably they'd have to come up with somebody.
   4. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: March 29, 2005 at 03:21 PM (#1222701)
What I've heard a couple of times on the spring radio broadcasts is that they're planning to use Gregg for any spot starts, or if someone needs to be replaced in the rotation. I keep thinking that the refusal to put Shields in the rotation will jump up and bite the Angels, but it hasn't yet, even though he should have been starting all season in 2004 instead of Sele/Ortiz. Yes he's valuable in the bullpen, but starters pitch more innings, and do so before the game is decided.
   5. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: March 29, 2005 at 04:24 PM (#1222749)
Billy Hatcher

Make mine Mickey ...

... a superb preview. Not sure that I'm as optimistic; the offense will struggle to do as well as last year, but the pitching and defense should improve.
   6. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: March 29, 2005 at 04:37 PM (#1222763)
Thanks for a very good article, David. And thanks for the absolutely hilarious "real ultimate power" ninja page link. I almost peed myself reading that thing.
   7. Kaline Would Have Caught It Posted: March 29, 2005 at 05:31 PM (#1222826)
I hate Esteban Yan too. Just add him to the long list of ineffective Tiger relievers with Al Levine (thanks, Anaheim!), Jose Paniagua, etc.
   8. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: March 29, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1222847)
Boy, the last couple of days haven't looked good for the Angels' rotation. I'm guessing it's just the hard Arizona infields, though...
   9. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: March 29, 2005 at 06:04 PM (#1222879)
Make mine Mickey ...

Did I really say Billy Hatcher? I sure did. Doh.

WRT to guys getting spot starts, I also heard that they would be using Gregg if someone has to miss a start. Chris Bootcheck will also get an opportunity if someone goes down. Like I said, slim pickings.

I hate Esteban Yan too.

The outcry of hate for Esteban Yan really makes me happy.
   10. Halofan Posted: March 29, 2005 at 06:41 PM (#1222965)
Good preview, despite the fact that the sky is falling...
   11. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: March 29, 2005 at 07:07 PM (#1223026)
I should have mentioned ... I've had similar experience with Esteban Yan. Esteban Yan sucks.
   12. deb Posted: March 29, 2005 at 08:52 PM (#1223189)
I must be the only person who likes Mr. Yan. But then again I have a soft spot for birds with bad wings who can't fly. Also his name flows nicely.
   13. Matt Welch Posted: March 29, 2005 at 09:27 PM (#1223231)
Nicely done, Peng! Where do you get those by-position stats, btw?
   14. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: March 29, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1223285)
Nicely done, Peng! Where do you get those by-position stats, btw?

Thanks, Matt. ESPN's and MLB's websites gave some nifty sortable stat pages. I got the raw numbers from them, moved them to an Excel sheet, and went from there.
   15. scareduck Posted: March 29, 2005 at 11:58 PM (#1223415)
I always drag this Stephen Smith column out on the subject of "whose team was the 2002 squad, anyway?" Now, I grant you that Smith has a perhaps unusual idea of how team construction operates, but it's worth considering.
   16. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: March 30, 2005 at 01:07 AM (#1223472)
I always drag this Stephen Smith column out on the subject of "whose team was the 2002 squad, anyway?" Now, I grant you that Smith has a perhaps unusual idea of how team construction operates, but it's worth considering.

I'm still not sure how much "credit" Stoneman should get for trading Jim Edmonds for Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield. In terms of straight value, the Cardinals won that trade in a big way, while the Angels got a bad pitcher who would sweat butter and a decent second baseman.

With Stoneman, it's the small moves that are the best ones. Donnelly and Weber turned out to be fantastic acquisitions, Fullmer was traded for nothing, and Spiezio was very cheap. The core of the 2002 team, though, was already there. The one big move Stoneman made that really worked out was trading Moo Vaughn for Appier. Appier ended up being way expensive relative to his production, but he was good enough in 2002 to carry his part of the rotation starts.

Stephen Smith and I often went at it in the bad old days of the Usenet, to the point where he would never address my posts directly, and I would curse like a sailor in every reply. I am irrationally irked by him.
   17. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: March 30, 2005 at 01:16 AM (#1223484)
<i>"whose team was the 2002 squad, anyway?"<i>

I'm still not sure how much "credit" Stoneman should get for trading Jim Edmonds for Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield. In terms of straight value, the Cardinals won that trade in a big way, while the Angels got a decent second baseman and a bad pitcher who sweat butter. The one big move Stoneman made that really worked out was trading Moo Vaughn for Appier. Appier ended up being way expensive relative to his production, but he was good enough in 2002 to carry his part of the rotation starts.

With Stoneman, it's always the small moves that are the best ones. Donnelly and Weber turned out to be fantastic acquisitions, Fullmer was traded for nothing, and Spiezio was very cheap free agent. The core of the 2002 team, though, was already there.
   18. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: March 30, 2005 at 01:21 AM (#1223486)
Whoops.
   19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: March 30, 2005 at 03:59 AM (#1223596)
David, excellent writeup, but I'll ask the same question I asked in the Twins preview. With only 3 of 9 regulars projected over .350 OBP (Guerrero, Figgins, DaVanon/Rivera), and only 3.3 of 9 over .450 SLG (Guerrero, Anderson, McPherson, Rivera), aren't you a little worried about the offense? Of course unlike the Twins, the Angels have Kotchman in the wings.
   20. Phil Coorey Posted: March 30, 2005 at 05:42 AM (#1223624)
I loved the preview David. This quote had me in hysterics....

On the other hand, the Angels also have to deal with their share of question marks. Their new third baseman is an unseasoned rookie with the potential to strike out 200 times, their new centerfielder is old enough to remember the French and Indian Wars, their rotation is more shallow and shaky than Jennifer Lopez’s wedding vows, and they still don’t have a DH. And what’s the deal with Chone Figgins spelling his name that way? Questions abound!



Well Done.

The previews this year have been flat out awesome.
   21. RB in NYC (Now a Man with Options! Maybe!) Posted: March 30, 2005 at 06:17 AM (#1223631)
Figgins, incidentally, spells his name that way because its short for "DeChone"

Its still stupid.
   22. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: March 30, 2005 at 03:32 PM (#1224257)
As an Angel fan, I have some concern over the offense. I would expect them to struggle to be as good as last year, when their EqA ranked 5th in the AL. Going by position, it's hard to see a lot of places where they'll be better.

At catcher, the Molinas are the Molinas. At first, Erstad had his best year with the bat since 2000 last year; can that be repeated? At second, Kennedy/Figgins should be league-average hitters. At third, last year Angel 3B hit, as David points out, 297/355/478; can McPherson match that? And I don't see Cabrera as being too much of an improvement on Eckstein from an offensive standpoint.

In the outfield, Garret Anderson should be a bit better than last year, but Steve Finley will struggle to hit as well as Jose Guillen. And as good as Vlad is, expecting the same performance this year seems greedy. DaVanon/Rivera could be an improvement at DH, as Angel DHs only managed a 240/323/401 last year.

So, overall, it looks like they might be about as good as last year, likely losing ground at 1B, 3B, maybe RF, possibly coming out neutral in the Anderson/Finley/Guillen switches, and gaining at DH. McPherson breaking out would help.

Another thing to remember in looking at projections is that Angels Stadium is a bit of a pitchers' park.
   23. AROM Posted: March 31, 2005 at 11:25 AM (#1225407)
I'm optimistic on Finley's offense (not his defense), I think he'll come close to joining the group with .350+ OBA and almost certainly slug .450+

I just have a good feeling about him, since he'll be 27 this year, for the 13th time.
   24. strong silence Posted: March 31, 2005 at 11:40 PM (#1226344)
What is the feeling among you guys of how K-Rod will perform as a closer?
   25. planetpat Posted: April 02, 2005 at 08:47 AM (#1227780)
Great, great article.

K-Rod's going to blow about 5 to 8 saves, mainly because he's going to not have control of his slider, and players will sit on the fastball. However, that slider is death to hitters on a 2 strike count, and K-rod gets a ton of those.

Anaheim Stadium plays as a pitchers park specifically in April, May, June when fly balls die in the cool night air.

During day games, that place is a pinball machine.
   26. submoron Posted: April 04, 2005 at 04:03 PM (#1231879)
Great article, David, but you should have cribbed more from that Real Ultimate Power site:

The Angels are sooooooooooo sweet that I want to crap my pants. I can't believe it sometimes, but I feel it inside my heart. These guys are totally awesome and that's a fact. The Angels are fast, smooth, cool, strong, powerful, and sweet. I can't wait to start yoga next year. I love the Angels with all of my body (including my pee pee).
   27. dwmgibson Posted: April 10, 2005 at 06:21 PM (#1246262)
Your preview is riddled with terrible broad comments. Bill Stoneman did not just sit back content after they won the World Series. He worked hard to keep the entire team together after the championship. How many GMs have accomplished that. You also under estimate the coaching staff, the chemistry of the ball club, and the tremendous depth of the team.
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