Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

Paul DePodesta was hired by the Dodgers as their new GM just over a year ago. Beloved by the statheads and regarded with suspicion by insiders, everyone can no doubt agree that DePodesta has been aggressively molding the organization into what he envisions a successful 21st century baseball franchise ought to be.

A year isn’t a long time, so it’s still too early to assign adjectives such as successful or disappointing or obsequious (I admit, I just like writing that last one) to the reign of the new monarch. While the Dodgers have certainly had initial success with DePodesta, DePodesta is making long-term changes, meaning that his eventual success or failure will play out over years, not months.

But, adjectives are fun, so let’s find just the right one to assign DePodesta on an interim basis.

When playing word association, polarizing is the word that initially comes to mind when I think of DePodesta. If nothing else, the new braintrust causes waves of light to vibrate in a definite pattern.

Wait, I think I wanted one of the other definitions of polarizing. DePodesta has shown a knack for making personnel moves and decisions that will instantly inspire either intense affection or burning hatred.

Another adjective comes to mind – decisive. Whether for good or ill, this general manager is one who will not sit on his hands and do nothing.

Pitching problems during the pennant race? No pointless Fetters-for-Mulholland or B-prospects-for-Paul Shuey trades for this GM, but one of the blockbusters of the year (and DePodesta’s defining moment so far) in Guillermo Mota, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Encarnacion for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, and Bill Murphy.

Strangely enough, despite the excitement, both positive and negative surrounding the trade, the results have been dissatisfying for both teams so far. Penny was injured almost immediately, Choi was awful and got little playing time down the stretch, Lo Duca played well for a month and then was as bad as Choi in September, helping to end the Marlins’ playoff hopes, and Mota started blowing games for the Fins. The only thing that did work out, at least in 2004, was Bill Murphy and only in that he brought in Steve Finley, who did play well during his short stint in Dodger Blue.

Well, on to 2005.

Catcher – Jason Phillips

The newest Dodger, Phillips was picked up just before the season in return for Kazuhisa Ishii. Phillips is coming off a terrible 2004 campaign and while he’s not a star, the Dodgers don’t need him to be – his job is to stop the bleeding (nobody wanted to see a David Ross/Paul Bako combo behind the plate) for a year or two while the Dodgers wait on Dioner Navarro or Russ Martin to push him aside. One thing about Phillips that won’t endear him to many Dodger fans is that he’s an ugly player – exaggerated swing and theatrical misses and his running makes casual observers wonder if he just got that prosthetic leg.

First Base – Hee Seop Choi/Olmedo Saenz

Choi’s gotten himself typecast as a platoon player despite not having problems with lefthanders in the minors. In limited play against southpaws in the majors, his results have been, well, less than ideal, 123/296/211 in 68 plate appearances. Once you’re set as platoon player, it’s hard to shed the label, but not impossible as Jim Thome, Ryan Klesko, and Shawn Green have shown in the past. I think Choi will be solidly league-average at first this year. Against lefties, the plan at the moment is to blind them with Saenz.

Second Base - Jeff Kent

Kent’s been another love ‘em or hate ‘em guy, famous for his run-ins with Bonds in San Francisco, his lame injury excuse of falling off his truck, and his uncanny similarity to Jeff Gillooly. Kent’s defensive reputation remains a subject of much contention between statheads and non-statheads; statistically, Kent was a terrific defensive second baseman last season while most non-numeric observers have Kent as mediocre at best. I’m guessing the truth ends up somewhere in the middle, in boring cop-out fashion.

What can be agreed on, and strangely overlooked this offseason, are Kent’s offensive abilities (the ones with the bat, that is). Kent hasn’t slugged below .500 in a season since 1997 – the Dodgers haven’t had a starting second baseman slug even .450 since the now-underrated Davey Lopes managed it in 1979. Even given moderate decline, Kent will be a solid producer and an overall upgrade from Alex Cora and practically any other 2B available.

Third Base – Jose Valentin

A year ago, nobody would have been too depressed at the departure of Adrian Beltre. However, Beltre responded with the season people have been waiting for him to have for years, hitting .334 with 48 home runs and garnering more MVP votes than any of the other mortals. The departure was hard for a lot of people to swallow – there are still inconsistencies with the stories given of the negotiations between the Dodgers and Beltre and we may never know the real story. While saying that Joel Guzman, one of the best prospects around, is the eventual 3B is all well and good, I strongly believe the Dodgers wanted to keep Beltre and got a little outmanuevered at the end by an aggressive courting by the Mariners.

So, this position can’t help but be an downgrade this season, but how bad will it get? The Dodgers have build an extreme groundball pitching staff and Valentin was a fine defensive shortstop with very good range, though prone to the occasional horrific-looking error. Valentin’s bat, however, won’t be a net plus at third – his average has declined to the point at which he simply can’t sustain a decent on-base percentage and his overall numbers were helped by U.S. Cellular Field.

Valentin has given up and taken up switch-hitting at various times during the last 18 months. Currently, his plan seems to be to hit lefty or righty in an individual at-bat given what he’s comfortable with (and apparently, with little input from Jim Tracy!)

Shortstop – Cesar Izturis

I never thought it would happen, but Izturis has become the player some people thought Rey Ordonez was instead of the player Rey Ordonez actually was. If that makes any sense.

Izturis, always a fine defensive shortstop, had the best offensive season of his career, hitting 288/330/381 last season. While he’ll never be the ideal leadoff hitter, he’ll continue as long as he keeps his GB/FB ratio near 2 and his legs stay healthy. And doesn’t miss 3rd base trying to score like he did Thursday.

Outfield – J.D. Drew, Milton Bradley, Ricky Ledee, Jason Repko, Jayson Werth

Drew and Bradley are the easy ones here. Drew became the de facto replacement for Adrian Beltre. Where the question with Beltre is his level of performance, the general question for Drew is his health status. Drew had the first truly healthy season of his career, but the condition of his knee is a long-term concern. He’ll hit when healthy, though, and the Dodgers will make sure to have suitable 4th outfielder types on hand that can fill in when a hammy or a groin or a ligament are acting up for the former 1st-rounder.

Bradley is currently the centerfielder. Whether Drew or Bradley was going to be in center was an issue of some concern, with Drew being the big free agent signing and Bradley being the incumbent with a temper. In the end, Bradley and Drew worked it out, with Bradley being the starting centerfielder. Drew feels that playing center is easier on his knee, with less sudden movements from balls rattling around in outfield corners, but will play right unless his knee starts flaring up.

Left was supposed to be a combination of Jayson Werth and Ricky Ledee, but Werth’s broken wrist gave an opportunity for Jason Repko to make the team out of spring training, at least for the time being. Repko’s career had an amazing turnaround in 2004 as he hit for the first time as a pro, 291/341/466 for Jacksonville and 311/355/493 for Las Vegas. While it screams fluke, this is one of the situations in which the difference between an outsider doing analysis and an insider running the team becomes obvious – it’s one thing for me or someone to say that someone’s a fluke, but when you’re managing a team and you emphasize results, it’s very hard not to reward good results. The Dodgers will give Repko every opportunity to fail or succeed over the next couple of months.

Bench

Starting Rotation
Derek Lowe
Odalis Perez
Jeff Weaver
Scott Erickson
Elmer Dessens
Brad Penny

Derek Lowe was the controversial signing here, getting an amazing 4-year, $36 million contract from the Dodgers. I feel this was the other place that DePodesta got outmanuevered on – Lowe was pretty much the last “name” starter left in the market when he was inked. While I appreciate the argument that Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher with a good infield defense behind him, the Dodgers are paying him as if he were already a success, not using that argument to get a bargain. Lowe will be better than he was in Boston, however. Nice first start; though it ended with a loss, the Dodgers will be content to get another 33 starts like that this year.

Odalis Perez and Jeff Weaver are the incumbents here, both solid #2-type starters that benefited from both the park and the defense. Not much new to say here, honestly, though it was nice to see the Weaver trade work out.

With the aforementioned Brad Penny being injured and Kazuhisa Ishii sent to the Mets in the Phillips trade, Elmer Dessens and shockingly, Scott Erickson, ended up making the rotation. Dessens is another groundballer, quietly acquired from the Diamondbacks last August. The original plan was to have him in long relief with occasional starts, but plans have changed and he should be starting for the time being. Erickson was the real surprise, yet another (wait for it!) extreme groundball pitcher. I appreciate bold moves and Erickson was excellent in spring training, but the fact remains that he hasn’t been healthy or good in nearly a decade. On the plus side, I don’t expect the Dodgers to stick with him long if he starts getting lit up like he was, well, everywhere else.

Bullpen
Wilson Alvarez
Eric Gagne
D.J. Houlton
Yhency Brazoban
Buddy Carlyle
Giovanni Carrara
Duaner Sanchez
Kelly Wunsch
Steve Schmoll

The Dodgers apparently want to make sure that the press reads the information package that’s handed out before every game.

Eric Gagne is, of course, one of the absolute best relief pitchers in the game, virtually unhittable when he’s on and even when he’s not on. He won’t make his usual 82.1 innings this season thanks to an elbow injury. Statheads pooh-pooh the contributions of relievers, but when a reliever is as good as Gagne is, the loss can be unbelievably damaging. The official explanation is that his elbow is sprained and there’s currently no timetable for his return, which is troubling to say the least. At least Dodger fans can take reassurance that they don’t have the Cubs medical staff who would describe a gunshot wound to the temple as day-to-day mild cranial inflammation.

Wilson Alvarez and Darren Dreifort are the other two injured Dodger relievers. Dreifort’s absence was expected for some time; he’s not pitching in 2005 thanks to surgry on his shoulder. Alvarez is currently suffering from tendinitis and will be back soon as the primary lefty reliever.

D.J. Houlton was a Rule 5 pick from the Astros and is now a good bet to not be offered back to Houston. Houlton’s a big righty but blessed with only an average fastball to go along with with decent breaking pitches and a changeup. I think he’d be better as a starter than a reliever and I wouldn’t be shocked if he sneaks in a start or two if Erickson implodes and Alvarez is still sore.

Duaner Sanchez and Giovanni Carrara were two more castoffs picked up by DePodesta that contributed in the bullpen last season. Sanchez is a power pitcher with a terrific slider that the Pirates didn’t have time for (the Bucs were busy auditioning every unemployed 30+ pitcher whose phone wasn’t disconnected) but fit nicely into the Dodger bullpen, giving 80 innings of solid relief work in his rookie season. Carrara is significantly more seasoned and returned to the Dodgers after a nightmare stint with the Mariners.

Yhency Brazoban turned out to be a big surprised for the Dodgers – after being acquired as an afterthought in the Jeff Weaver trade, Brazoban punched out 78 in 63.1 minor league innings before being called up and continuing to pitch well. Wunsch, Schmoll, and Carlyle round out the bullpen for the time being. Wunsch is the former White Sox LOOGY that fell out of favor despite a 3.64 career ERA. Schmoll is a former Terrapin sidearmer that blew through the minors very quickly without the fastball of Brazoban or Sanchez but is yet another groundball pitcher. Carlyle was a Padre prospect ages ago and after years of injuries, has become an organizational player and is likely to be the first pitcher sent down.

Overall

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Gagne        1.69   6   1  74   0    80.0   48   15   20  120   4 
Lowe         3.53  16  10  33  33   199.0  186   78   62  131  13 
Alvarez*     3.56   6   4  31  13   101.0   92   40   30   86  10 
Lopez        3.58   4   3  51   4    83.0   74   33   26   75   9 
Weaver       3.59  13   9  33  29   198.0  189   79   55  139  17 
Brazoban     3.71   9   6  68   0    80.0   65   33   42   83   5 
Perez*       3.77  11   9  31  31   191.0  185   80   43  140  24 
Penny        3.84  11   9  27  27   157.0  149   67   46  120  18 
Dreifort     3.93   3   3  36   5    55.0   44   24   31   63   5 
Wunsch*      4.00   1   1  45   0    36.0   29   16   21   34   2 
Dessens      4.12   7   6  38  24   155.0  157   71   43   97  19 
Rupe         4.30   7   6  18  14    88.0   89   42   20   65  15 
Juarez       4.37   6   6  18  18   105.0  101   51   34   89  17 
Carrara      4.39   4   5  63   0    82.0   79   40   34   64  10 
Carlyle      4.39   9   7  26  20   123.0  132   60   25  100  19 
Ketchner*    4.40   9   9  26  22   133.0  129   65   46  106  20 
Sanchez      4.44   3   4  61   0    73.0   70   36   31   50   8 
Farmer       4.54   7   8  32  19   125.0  128   63   42   77  17 
Venafro*     4.58   3   3  55   0    59.0   62   30   19   34   8 
Thompson*    4.64   6   7  24  24   126.0  122   65   65   80  11 
Perez        4.82   3   4  33  14   125.0  125   67   55   84  17 
Houlton      4.96   7   9  28  28   158.0  163   87   58  137  28 
Bott*        5.32   6   9  29  24   137.0  133   81   84  110  20 
Jackson      5.44   5   8  29  27   134.0  131   81   87  105  17 
Hanrahan     5.62   5  10  26  25   133.0  128   83   89  111  21 
Brooks*      5.72   3   6  49   5    85.0   96   54   31   69  20 
Erickson     5.82   6   9  23  22   130.0  157   84   59   58  17 
Eckert       5.87   3   6  28  12    89.0   89   58   51   79  19 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Drew*        rf  .287  .402  .526 135 460 132 22  5 26  88  81  86 104  9  3 
Kent         2b  .275  .339  .485 140 530 146 34  4 23  81  88  48  87  5  3 
Bradley#     cf  .277  .376  .447 127 465 129 26  1 17  66  67  71  98 14 10 
Izturis#     ss  .284  .323  .360 162 652 185 27  7  3  79  58  40  69 19  9 
Edwards      3b  .274  .354  .404 135 507 139 31  1 11  73  66  60  92  7  7 
Choi*        1b  .246  .367  .453 127 395  97 20  1 20  61  61  73 111  1  1 
Stanley*     cf  .267  .353  .428 120 439 117 28  5 11  66  49  57  80  7  6 
Werth        rf  .253  .335  .456 109 384  97 18  3 18  61  60  45 111  8  4 
Chen         lf  .240  .316  .448 116 417 100 21  3 20  62  61  44 114  4  3 
Nakamura     3b  .236  .343  .379 118 406  96 17  1 13  46  52  65 112  1  1 
Perez        2b  .260  .333  .405 123 415 108 18  3 12  71  54  43  90 18 12 
Myrow*       1b  .247  .356  .413 110 356  88 23  3 10  61  44  60  96  6  3 
Ross         rf  .256  .308  .477 102 386  99 22  3 19  58  58  26  72  5  4 
Repko        cf  .255  .308  .394 124 462 118 22  3 12  66  48  32 101 20 13 
Meadows      lf  .250  .320  .427 110 396  99 21  2 15  49  52  38  87  6  5 
Aybar#       2b  .247  .310  .367 126 458 113 19  0 12  48  58  39  76 13  5 
Thurston*    2b  .271  .308  .372 138 484 131 20  4  7  63  44  23  56  6  8 
Valentin#    ss  .209  .277  .418 132 464  97 21  2 24  61  71  42 127  6  5 
Phillips     1b  .261  .336  .397 121 383 100 22  0 10  39  49  37  43  0  1 
Rose#        c   .252  .362  .370  94 305  77 16  1  6  44  34  51  74  0  1 
Navarro#     c   .261  .318  .343 115 391 102 16  2  4  46  39  30  61  2  2 
Loney*       1b  .246  .310  .322 114 391  96 14  2  4  46  34  34  80  7  3 
Flores       ss  .249  .341  .320 122 338  84 13  1  3  52  31  45  45  8  4 
Holt         lf  .215  .271  .363 122 377  81 18  1 12  40  43  26  93  3  4 
Ledee*       lf  .233  .329  .437 110 215  50 12  1 10  27  32  31  54  1  1 
Grabowski*   c   .248  .331  .416  90 226  56 12  1  8  31  31  28  53  2  2 
Theodorou#   lf  .237  .322  .313  77 240  57 10  1  2  30  20  29  35  7  4 
Requena#     cf  .199  .258  .230 103 356  71  4  2  1  45  17  25  95 25 13 
Saenz        1b  .264  .345  .464  73 125  33  4  0  7  15  21  12  32  0  0 
Bako*        c   .217  .292  .294  66 180  39  9  1  1  17  14  19  39  0  1