Looking Forward to 2008:  Milwaukee Brewers

Persistence and patience. I make minimal claims as to having many positive attributes, but if pressed I will state that I am both persistent and patient. The former has always been present. The latter has been learned thanks to life’s lessons.

I think it’s because of these traits that I identify with Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin or as noted BBTF contributor battlekow calls him, Moustache. Doug Melvin believes in having a plan. I am pretty sure Doug was who the writers of The Hunt For Red October had in mind when they wrote the line, “don’t take a dump without a plan”.

The Milwaukee Brewers of today are testimony to both the positive AND negative results that can be generated if an organization develops a plan, stays focused on the plan, stays committed to the plan and executes the plan. When Doug Melvin was hired the Brewers were a mess. The team had just endured its worst season in franchise history, and one of the offensive cornerstones was the immortal Jose Hernandez. Doug quickly recognized that change was needed.

Primary in that change was focusing exclusively on acquiring young players. While sending most of the front office packing, Melvin retained the services of player personnel whizerati, Jack Zduriencik. Zduriencik is directly responsible for the drafting of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Yovani Gallardo. That’s pretty ok. And Melvin deserves credit for recognizing amongst the shambles that was the Brewers organization one of the few truly skilled folks not just in Milwaukee but in the industry. The scouting department has also been key in the Brewers being able to pick up free talent just lying around with other teams including guys like Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise and Brady Clark who in return for waiver fees have made real contributions to the ballclub.

As another part of “The Plan”, Melvin worked to expand the talent base by leveraging assets in trades with other teams. The highlight was the Richie Sexson trade with Arizona when in return for a player about to enter serious money territory (and serious injury) the Brewers received several regular position players, a starter who earned a spot on the All-Star team and general filler. The lowlight was when Doug went to the Arizona well once too often and in return for a solid lefty starter, etc. Melvin received the Latin version of Steve Trachsel and an alleged catcher who couldn’t hit, couldn’t catch, couldn’t run and by season’s end was as popular as anthrax in the Brewers clubhouse.

The third phase of talent acquisition was the targeted use of free agency. Thanks to new ownership Melvin has been allocated additional monies to sign available players on a limited basis. Limited in that the core approach has been developing players internally but with the recognition that there are situations where going “to the outside” is appropriate. And it’s a good thing that Melvin is restrained in this area because for every wise use of free agency more often than not Doug has overspent on players likely not to provide adequate return on the investment.

But after the years of work Doug Melvin believes 2008 is the year for his team to make the playoffs. All other seasons were mere prelude. “The Plan” accounted for players getting introduced to the majors and allowing them to get their sea legs. Some players hit the ground running; others have had their struggles. Doug Melvin is wise enough to understand that there is going to be a progression. And while 2007 was fun in Doug’s mind the team didn’t quite have everything in place. But now he believes there are no remaining excuses. So while the team fields five regular position players 26 or younger, the rotation is populated by The Three Caballeros, and the bullpen is a mish-mash of head cases and castoffs Doug Melvin expects “The Plan” to produce the intended result, a National League Central title.

I will now provide a synopsis of the active roster. Because I know that the readers are mostly intelligent people I will not include data that is readily available elsewhere. Instead, I will work to provide information that may not be known except to fans of the Brewers and/or the NL Central. So if you have a deep thirst for a stream of numbers you will leave here quite parched.

First base: Prince Fielder is a power hitter. Period. He makes an effort on the bases and in the field but Fielder’s contribution is that he can regularly hit a baseball over 400 feet. One common misunderstanding about Prince is that he is tips the scale at 300 pounds. In point of fact Fielder has lost approximately fifty pounds since he was drafted at age 18 and most recently became a vegetarian at the behest of his wife who had him read the book “The Omnivore’s Dilemma”. The change is pretty evident and only ignorant bystanders still refer to Fielder as a “300 lb. player”. While the ballclub is pleased that Fielder is monitoring his weight concerns exist that the weight loss will be accompanied by a loss of strength. Fielder hit only one home run in spring training and the usual “kapow” associated with Fielder making contact was clearly missing. Prince is the only lefty in the starting lineup and anything but a .900 plus OPS season in 2008 will be a severe drag on the offense. He’s THAT important.

Second base: Rickie Weeks is the very definition of a conundrum. If you ask anyone around the ballclub they will tell you without hesitation that Weeks is the most talented player on the team. He can run like the wind, hit the ball a mile, make bullet throws and make the girls swoon when he takes his shirt off. What he can’t do is play second base. This is the negative of being commited to a “plan”. Because the Brewers determined that Rickie was going to play second base. And dadgummit that was going to happen. But aside from a lack of natural aptitude for the position the issue is compounded by the fact that Weeks batting style makes him prone to injuries. In less than two-thirds of a season in 2007 Weeks was among the leaders in the NL in being hit by pitches and led the league in 2006. In addition, Weeks has about -3% body fat. His body is wound so tight a mere twitch can cause things to fly apart. So you have a player at a high-risk position, with a high-risk batting style and his physique lends itself to the more than usual tweaks and glitches. That’s the perfect storm for a guy to never stay in the lineup regularly and be frustrated. And frustrated players typically don’t produce. Weeks career has been a series of stops and starts. After a brief (and embarrassing) sojourn to the minors last season Weeks was an offensive FORCE the last two months of 2007. The Brewers hope that this advance continues in 2008. As for his defensive issues the organization has determined the course of action to be acceptance. Don’t think Brewer pitchers are aligned with that approach.

Shortstop: JJ Hardy is the local team heartthrob as well as being the one infield regular who can be deemed above average on defense. Hardy returned from injury in 2006 facing pitchers who decided to spend the first six weeks trying to jam him inside. Hardy responded by going “Yippee!” and ranking among the league leaders in home runs. Eventually pitchers adapted and Hardy’s bat cooled off considerably. But his defense was solid and more importantly he stayed in the lineup. Hardy isn’t a number two hitter, but he can hit for a reasonable average, has a bit of sock in his bat, draws a walk now and then and makes the plays he is supposed to make in the field. In Milwaukee that last item counts for a LOT.

Third base: Bill Hall has the resident handyman for the Brewers. After being dismissed in rude fashion by some foolish folks as a player Hall has done nothing but advance his career while helping the ballclub. Be it being a roving utility player while hitting well in 2005 to taking over at shortstop for an injured Hardy and arguably being the best in the league at his position in 2006 Hall has done everything that has been asked of him. When a gap developed in centerfield Hall grabbed his glove and gave it his best effort. And while his defense at first was poor after a few months Hall was making his share of plays. However, the challenge of this position switch dragged on his offense. Billy was just starting to get his bat going when he hurt his ankle in early July. Seeing the team struggle he came back too soon, his offense collapsed and then he crossed swords with his manager who decided to use Hall as an example of how a lack of production will impact a man’s playing time. 2007 was a lost year for Bill who was thrilled at the prospect of getting back to the infield. While it’s unlikely he will match 2006’s sterling output of more than seventy extra base hits and a smattering of walks Hall will play a solid hot corner while getting his slugging percentage in the .500 range. Did I also mention that Bill is highly active in the community with numerous charities? He’s the Brewers Bono.

C: Jason Kendall is the very definition of a guy on the downside of his career. His power, such as it is, has vanished. His arm appears to be shot. Right now his offense is singles and walks while his defense is hustle and grit. As long as he doesn’t antagonize like his predecessor the club considers anything Kendall provides has to be an upgrade. Interestingly, the Brewer manager has determined that Kendall will bat ninth in the order to create a “second leadoff man”. It should be interesting to see what results are generated. Also, during spring training coach Ted Simmons made a change in Kendall’s throwing delivery that allegedly cut down the time he was taking to release the ball on stolen base attempts. Whether this was typical spring training nonsense talk or real activity remains to be seen. If Kendall can give the team 100 odd games of adequate defense and an OBP of .340 plus the organization will be delighted.

LF: Ryan Braun hits. Sure he can run. And his arm is good though highly erratic. His defense? At third base not so good. Like Weeks, the organization determined that Braun would play third base. And while he had some issues in the minors no change was attempted. And after a decent first month in the majors Braun’s defensive challenges exploded full-bore causing some to surmise that perhaps Braun’s defense was offsetting his impressive offense. Whatever the case the Brewers DID decide to make a change installing Ryan in left field with the hope that the position switch won’t have the same results as what happened with Bill Hall. Braun is 24 years old and will bat clean up in 2008. His bat is chained lightening. Again, the standard analyst position is that Braun will regress from 2007 since nobody can maintain his contact results given the strikeouts. And of course pitchers will adjust. My contention is that barring injury Ryan Braun will beat the living sh*t out of National League pitchers.

CF: Mike Cameron beginning in late April. Cameron is 35 years old and a known commodity. He has a bit of power, draws some walks, strikes out a bit much, has some speed and plays good defense. If he can do that for 125 games Milwaukee’s leadership will be quite pleased. As Cameron keeps himself in shape and is playing in a bit friendlier ballpark than San Diego’s cavernous locale, one should think Mike could make a positive contribution.

RF: Corey Hart. Hart has flat-out surprised the Brewers. Despite excelling at every minor league stop Hart was never really considered anything beyond a fourth outfielder. The belief was that major league pitchers would tie him up inside. Hart is about the goofiest looking guy you can imagine being 6’6” with silly chin hair and all elbows and knees. But he gets results. Hart is even faster than Weeks and has already shown off an ability to rob home runs thanks to his reach and jumping ability. The only downside to Corey’s game is his arm which simply isn’t right field caliber. But even with that Hart was quite likely the best right fielder in the NL in 2007 and will compete with his Cubs counterpart for the honor in 2008. He will hit for a reasonable average, draw some walks, hit for some power, run the bases well and hold his own in the outfield. That’s a d*mn fine player.

Starting pitchers: “Achy Breaky” Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva will start the season as Yovani Gallardo suffered a minor knee injury in spring training and is expected back by the end of April. The team quite sensibly ditched Vargas as an option and decided to look to talent versus “veteran experience”. It’s a bold gamble as Villanueva has never caused anyone to gush when watching him pitch. But the kid just gets guys out. Parra is lefty Latino version of Sheets in that he has great talent but has struggled to stay on the mound due to injury. Gallardo is just a machine with a 93 mph fastball, knee-buckling curve and control that Derrick Turnbow only fantasizes about late at night. Once the team gets over its Dave Bush as starter fetish Gallardo will take his spot and support Suppan in Jeff’s role as innings eater. Sheets is in his contract year and as much as it pains me to write I expect him to stay in the rotation all season as he looks to the next contract. There is just too much money for any pitcher with a modicum of ability to think Ben will do anything but strive to stay on the mound so that the next team can write him a huge check. If that approach, distasteful as it may seem, pushes Milwaukee into the playoffs so be it. With Chris Capuano likely out for the season and Vargas gone there are limited options internally should a bevy of injuries occur which considering the given population is a legitimate possibility. The organization is relying on pitching coach Mike Maddux to keep guys on the mound for the bulk of the season.

Relief pitchers: Along with the defense the bane of the 2007 season was the bullpen. If it wasn’t guys freaking out from hitting a batter it was pitchers just stinking it up at the worst possible time. The Brewers lost sixteen (16!) games after getting a lead of three runs or more. In response Doug Melvin overhauled the bunch signing David Riske and Eric Gagne while trading for Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres. Brian Shouse, Seth McClung ( of all people) and local whipping boy Derrick Turnbow were retained. Gagne is the nominal closer with no designated setup man. Should Gagne not recover his Boston issues the next likely candidate for closing duties is Riske who has shown an ability to throw strikes and not become a complete spaz once a runner gets on base. We set the bar pretty low in Milwaukee.

Bench: Actually a pretty capable bunch. Craig Counsell can handle any infield position and draws a walk now and then. Joe Dillon can do the same with a bit more punch at the plate. Gabe Gross is the definitive lefty-filler in the outfield who will surprise with a homer now and again while Tony Gwynn Jr. bloops them over the infield and runs hard. The backup catcher is Mike Rivera whose defense isn’t awful and also keeps from being inept at the plate. All the real star potential is on the playing field. But these guys will contribute but only Gross or Dillon would be able to handle extended playing time without being a real drag on the team.

Manager: Ned Yost. He sets a positive mood in the clubhouse for young players. He reads a lot to try and get better at his job. A job that has been very narrowly defined by upper management once they realized that Ned was poor at recognizing and organizing talent. Ned is responsible for relationship management with the players and in-game tactical decisions. He does fine with the former (as long as Johnny Estrada or Scott Podsednik isn’t around) and stinks at the latter. Right now, Brewer fans hope he keeps his direct contribution to losses to fewer than five for the 2008 season.

This is a good but flawed team. As a fan, I expect 93 wins. The pragmatist tells me 88.

My thanks to the many Brewer fans on BBTF who make this site enjoyable including JoeHova, HSF, battlekow and most notably NTNgod who regularly keeps me from spending a night in the emergency room hooked up to a blood pressure monitor.

My apologies to anyone I may have overlooked. And here is to a fun 2008 season!