Milwaukee Brewers Preview

With a $50 million dollar leaky roof, a twelfth straight losing season, and a series of unfortunate events having befallen many of the system's top prospects in 2004, Brewer fans could be forgiven if they were less than enthusiastic heading into this season. Yet. . . there's a palpable optimism -- one might say hope and faith emanating from the land Where the Waters Meet, the likes of which have not been felt since the days of Listach to Fletcher to Stubbs.

Some of the optimism can be attributed to the series of bold moves made by General Manager Doug Melvin this off-season; some of it can be traced to the imminent arrival of a few of those still-promising prospects. But let's face it: the real source of all the jubilation is the most important transaction, the addition by subtraction of one Allan H. Selig.

With Bud gone, Milwaukee fans have been holding a daily parade in his honor, straight to the Miller Park ticket office. Sales have been brisk: On the first day of individual game sales, the team sold more tickets than on any previous day in their history.

After the contraction of Selig, Melvin set about the task of improving the team's two most glaring weaknesses, which were catcher and. . . well, hitting. The trade for Carlos Lee, however, required the freeing up of payroll, which triggered a whole series of moves Melvin probably had not originally planned:

* Arbitration-eligible Danny Kolb to Atlanta for Jose Capellan (and Alec Zumwalt)

* Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino to White Sox for Carlos Lee

* Keith Ginter to Oakland for reliever Justin Lehr and outfielder Nelson Cruz

* Signed Ricky Bottalico

He also addressed the catching need by (sort of) outbidding Boston for Damian Miller.

ZiPS sees it all like this:

Going		2005	        Coming          2005
====================================================
Kolb		3.69 ERA   	Capellan	4.60
Vizcaino	4.96		Lehr		4.50
				Botallico	3.97
====================================================
Podsednik	4.9 RC/27	Lee		6.2
Ginter	        5.1 		Cruz		4.0
Bennett	        3.0		Miller	        4.3
Selig		~
====================================================

Starting Rotation

Pitching was the "strength" of the club in 2004; the breakout performances by Ben Sheets and Doug Davis were probably the only thing that kept this team from losing 100 games. The staff as a whole improved across-the-board from 2003 to 2004, cutting walks by 17% and homeruns surrendered from a major league-high of 219 to a more respectable 164. If they keep it up, Mike Maddux may start getting credit for being one of the more effective pitching coaches in the game. His emphasis on throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the ballpark (how novel) seems to be working, and the front office seems to have adopted a philosophy of acquiring pitchers who do just that (see Capellan and Lehr).

For the first time in a long time, being the "ace" of the Brewers staff actually meant something in 2004. Of course, in Milwaukee that distinction still only gets you 12 wins. With an improved lineup this year, that should change.

Only two pitchers in baseball were better than Sheets in 2004, and they both won Cy Young Awards. In at least one important respect, Sheets' breakthrough performance put him among very select company in baseball history. Only seven pitchers since 1900 have posted strikeout/walk ratios (relative to league average) better than Sheets did last year:

				
			Ratio	Pct above LG
============================================
Saberhagen	1994	11.0	  563   
PMartinez	2000	8.9	  531
PMartinez	1999	8.5	  504
WJohnson	1913	6.4	  499
Schilling	2002 	9.6	  494
Mathewson	1908 	6.2	  475
Maddux	        1997	8.9	  446
Cy Young	1901	4.3	  434
Sheets	        2004	8.3	  414
Cy Young	1905	7.0	  412
============================================
(Data courtesy Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia)

The Brewers wisely avoided arbitration with Sheets, splitting the difference on a one-year deal for $6 million. An early test of the new ownership will be whether they can buy out at least a couple of Sheets' free agent years, especially now that Johan Santana, a pitcher of the same age and of comparable talent, has signed his big deal with the Twins.

It would be tempting to dismiss Davis' remarkable performance as a fluke, but his peripherals say otherwise. He's fun to watch as he jams righthanded batters again and again with the cutter.

Victor Santos had a pleasantly surprising first half, then tanked in the second half along with most of the rest of the team. The Brewers believe he ran out of gas due to his year-round pitching schedule and hope this year will be different after he agreed for the first time not to play winter ball. Santos was also one of the more DIPS-unlucky pitchers in 2004, which may bode well for a potential bounce-back.

Ben Hendrickson is tough to figure. After breezing through the International League (though his peripherals were not overwhelming), he couldn't get anyone out in the National League. He's a curveball pitcher with little margin for error and a spotty health record. He's got good control and keeps the ball in the ballpark, though, so DIPS likes him pretty well this year.

The fifth starter will emerge from a group including Jorge De La Rosa, Chris Capuano, Wes Obermueller, Gary Glover, or maybe even Melvin's prodigal son Rick Helling. De La Rosa is out of options, so they'll do everything they can to keep him on the big club. Capuano pitched well at times in 2004, but got tattooed by righthanded batters. If he doesn't make the rotation I think he's a good bet to emerge as the funny-sounding acronym in the bullpen.

Bullpen

With Kolb gone, the closer could be anyone from the quietly consistent Mike Adams to Bottalico to Capellan, or a committee of the three. Right now they are giving Capellan a chance to start, and if that doesn't work they'll try to make him a closer. The hard-throwing Lehr is expected to be the setup man, and Brooks Kieschnick is set to return as the two-headed monster. Other serious candidates for the pen include Matt Wise, Derrick Turnbow, and lefty Andy Pratt.

I see the 12-man staff as follows:

Sheets		        Capellan
Davis			Capuano
Santos		        Kieschnick
De La Rosa		Bottalico
Hendrickson		Lehr
			Adams
			Wise

No longer will Brewers catchers suffer the indignity of having Brad Ausmus and Mike Matheny lord their offensive prowess over them. We hope, anyway. Signing a 35-year-old catcher for 3 years (2 plus mutual option) and nearly $9 million probably was not Melvin's first choice to rectify the problem, but it is defensible considering how wretched the catching situation has been and figured to be for the foreseeable future.

Wisconsin native Damian Miller is presumably a well-preserved 35, having averaged only about 80 games a year with only one trip to the disabled list over his career. Miller's 397 at-bats last year were a career high, and his modest pop make him look like Mike Piazza compared to what the team has had in recent years.

Miller will be reunited with former teammate Chad Moeller, who can only improve on last year's performance. Moeller got most of the playing time last season in Yost's pitcher-catcher platoon system, but that figures to be reversed as long as Miller is healthy and playing well. If anyone gets hurt, the Brewers can turn to Mark Johnson or the Bizarro Crash Davis, Pat Borders, for backup.

First Base

Poor Lyle Overbay. After languishing in the Diamondbacks' system far longer than he should have, he comes to Milwaukee and makes people all but forget that Sexson fellow, only to turn around and have one of the top hitting prospects in the game breathing down his neck. A hot start by Prince Fielder in Nashville may be all it takes to start the Overbay trade watch.

Of course, it is by no means a foregone conclusion that Fielder will dominate at Triple-A right away, so that trade talk could well be postponed until next year. Fielder will be one of the younger players in Triple-A, and it will not be surprising if he struggles initially. He was challenged for the first time last year before adjusting to finish fairly well. With the relatively cheap and productive Overbay manning the position, though, there's no need to rush him.

Second Base

The plan was to have Junior Spivey hit .350 through July 15, then dump him on the Yankees for a boatload of prospects. OK, that was my plan. I don't know what the Brewers' plan was, exactly, though I'm pretty sure it did not involve Spivey dislocating his shoulder and missing most of the season. So they will try it again, this time without the safety net of the departed Keith Ginter. The loss of Spivey did allow the team to find out whether Bill Hall could translate his athleticism and occasional power into winning baseball. Unfortunately for Hall and his fans, the results were not favorable, and unless Spivey goes down again, Hall will be relegated to the bench. That's OK, though; I think Hall can yet carve out a niche for himself as a useful sub.

The Ginter trade makes sense only if you believe Nelson Cruz is a real prospect, which I don't. Cruz beat up on the California and Texas Leagues like Kramer dominating the dojo, but when he takes on someone his own size it may be a different story. So they traded a bargain-priced .479-slugging second-baseman -- a relatively rare commodity -- for a bullpen arm and an iffy outfield prospect. It's not a disaster, but in addition to making Billy Beane look smart yet again, it depleted an already thin bench.

I think it's safe to say that Rickie Weeks struck out more times last year than he had in the previous 21 years of his life combined. He is said to have corrected the problem that has caused his prospect status to drop somewhat, and the scouts are saying that after a successful Arizona Fall League stint he is back on track. One somewhat alarming fact about Weeks is that he was plunked an amazing 28 times last year.

Third Base

It somehow seemed fated that Russell Branyan would eventually wind up in Milwaukee. The Brewers have seven of the top twenty-three whiffingest individual seasons in history, and Branyan is a good bet to become the eighth if he's given any kind of a chance. While Zips likes Branyan quite a bit this year, there's a potential for a pretty good platoon here with Wes Helms, who's hit lefthanders fairly well throughout his career.

As disappointing as Helms was as at the plate last year, he was even worse afield, where he resembled a bronze statue of Butch Hobson. In his defense, though, he underwent knee surgery in the middle of the season that hampered his mobility in the field and sapped his power at the plate. I think there's a good chance Helms will bounce back enough in his walk year to make third base a strength for the club. Jeff Cirillo is also in camp, and as much as that name means to this team, I'll be shocked if he makes the roster.

Shortstop

You know you have a problem when Craig Counsell gets a career-high 473 at-bats. With Counsell now gone and Hall consigned to a life of utility, the club has given the job to 22-year-old J.J. Hardy as his to lose after just 101 Triple-A at-bats. Nothing wrong with that, necessarily, but their lack of caution is especially surprising considering the uncertain status of Hardy's left shoulder. Assuming his shoulder is OK, the only risk with letting him sink or swim now is starting his arbitration clock before they start getting real production out of him.

That being said, Hardy is my favorite of all the Brewer prospects. Only the time lost from the shoulder injury is keeping him from vaulting ahead of Rickie Weeks on the various prospect lists. Consider that Hardy, already a polished defensive shortstop, had a better year at a younger age in Double-A than Weeks did:

			BB	K
	Age	Slg	rate	rate
Hardy	 20	.428	.12	.11
Weeks	 21	.407	.10	.19

Outfield

Lee will be moving from a supporting role in Chicago's offense to being the Man in Milwaukee. While he's never quite been All-Star caliber, he's durable and consistent, and there's no reason to doubt that he will continue to put up above-average numbers for the next couple of years. Geoff Jenkins, who is Lee's closest career comp as a hitter but a superior defender, will slide over to right to make room. Lee will collect his 1000th career hit, a double, on May 16th at Washington.

Brady Clark is yet another castoff picked up by Melvin and turned into something useful. The hard-working Clark is attempting at age 32 to make the leap from role-player to centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

Candidates for the backup outfield slots include perennial prospect Dave Krynzel, the toolsy Cruz, and the sometimes overlooked Corey Hart. Hart is built a lot like Richie Sexson, and I've noticed that their career paths also bear some resemblance:

					BB	K
		Age	Lvl	Slg	rate	rate
Sexson	        18	R	.247	.16	.18
Hart		18	R	.366	.06	.12

Sexson	        19	A-	.418	.07	.17
Hart		19	R	.542	.08	.14

Sexson	        20	A+	.508	.08	.21
Hart		20	A+AA	.531	.08	.22

Sexson	        21	AA	.444	.07	.21
Hart	 	21	AA	.467	.05	.19

Sexson	        22	AAA	.530	.06	.19
Hart		22	AAA	.486	.09	.19

Sexson	        23	AAA	.544	.13	.17

With Cleveland, Sexson was blocked from his natural position by Jim Thome; Hart has been blocked from behind by Fielder; first moving to third base, and now the outfield. Sexson seemed to benefit from the extra year at AAA, and I believe Hart would, too.

Bench

Not a lot of margin for error if someone gets hurt or slumps. Helms can back up first; Krynzel and Cruz can play anywhere in the outfield; and Hall can play pretty much anywhere on the field. I admit that Cruz making the team over Hart is wishful thinking on my part, as I'd rather see Hart playing every day in the Pacific Coast League than sitting on the bench in Milwaukee.

Outlook

The probable everyday lineup looks like this:

Clark cf
Spivey 2b
Overbay 1b
Lee lf
Jenkins rf
Branyan 3b
Miller c
Hardy ss

The Semi-Alliterative Bench:

Hall, Helms, Krynzel, Cruz, Kieschnick, Moeller

The lineup is decent, insofar as it should be vastly improved over last year's. They aren't the Cardinals, but they've got four guys in the middle of the lineup capable of slugging around .500. The biggest questions concerning the lineup are whether Clark can handle playing every day in a key role, and whether Hardy is healthy and ready for the majors.

With Sheets and Davis expected to fall back somewhat, they need to get better performances from the back of the rotation to keep the bullpen from wearing out again. Melvin has done a good job bringing in pitchers who fit the ballpark, while Maddux and Yost seem to be getting the most out of them.

This is a team that could have snuck up on people if I hadn't said anything. After a consolidation year in 2004, the team seems poised to take that next step forward. The question is, how far forward? A 14-game improvement is a lot to ask, though not unprecedented. I think the team is worth 75-80 wins on talent; where they fall within that range is anybody's guess. It should be fun finding out.

The Selig Chronicles

July 30, 1934 - Born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

August 12, 1943 - Breaks parents' kitchen window with foul ball; convinces neighbors they should pitch in to help pay for the replacement.

September 1952 - Enters the University of Wisconsin; successfully lobbies school to institute grading curve when he discovers he has little hope or faith to compete.

1965 - Braves break his heart; damage eventually revealed to be irreparable.

April 1, 1970 - Brings baseball back to Milwaukee; earns benefit of the doubt for 25 years.

December 1977 - Makes best decision of his entire life, hiring Harry Dalton as General Manager.

1978 - Bambi's Bombers take flight, beginning an entertaining 6-year run of excellence. Selig receives credit for Dalton's work, winning Major League Executive of the Year Award.

September 10, 1992 - Named acting Commissioner.

September 14, 1994 - Institutes tradition of canceling World Series every 90 years.

October 6, 1995 - Milwaukee stadium financing bill passed on the third try by the State Senate in a 16-15 vote at 5:00 a.m.

June 4, 1996 - State Senator George Petak (R-Racine), whose pre-dawn conversion during that October vote gave Selig his new ballpark, becomes first elected official in Wisconsin history to be recalled.

July 2, 1998 - Named "permanent" Commissioner after 6-year probationary period.

November 6, 2001 - Baseball owners vote 28-2 to eliminate two unnamed teams.

January 13, 2005 - Out.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Sheets       3.19  14  12  34  34   226.0  206   80   43  216  23 
Wise         3.84   2   3  31   9    82.0   82   35   18   64  10 
Hendrickso   3.95   8  11  27  26   146.0  145   64   45  104  13 
Bottalico    3.97   2   3  52   0    59.0   52   26   30   51   3 
Capuano*     4.08   7   9  25  22   130.0  124   59   46  111  14 
Davis*       4.10   9  13  30  30   180.0  177   82   68  130  15 
Phelps*      4.14   3   4  48   3    76.0   73   35   28   62   8 
Adams        4.15   2   4  52   2    78.0   72   36   31   74   9 
Gamble       4.44   5   4  17  13    71.0   74   35   28   38   5 
de la Rosa   4.46   5   9  26  25   113.0  105   56   57  101  11 
Santos       4.47   7  11  35  26   157.0  157   78   61  123  19 
Lehr         4.50   3   5  57   0    74.0   74   37   34   57   6 
Kieschnick   4.58   1   1  39   0    53.0   54   27   19   38   7 
Capellan     4.60   4   5  18  17    86.0   81   44   51   71   5 
Beltran*     4.61   3   3  30  11    82.0   83   42   39   52   7 
Davis        4.86   2   2  27   0    37.0   35   20   24   33   3 
Turnbow      4.95   4   4  51   2    80.0   76   44   44   71   9 
Bennett      5.04   3   7  42   9    91.0   96   51   40   64  13 
Pratt*       5.09   4   9  26  23   129.0  119   73   88  119  13 
Woolard      5.13   5   9  32  19   135.0  136   77   78  109  15 
Helling      5.29   6  11  28  24   148.0  169   87   47   92  26 
Obermuelle   5.29   5  14  28  26   153.0  171   90   64   78  22 
Zumwalt      5.40   5   5  44   0    70.0   68   42   48   54   7 
Glover       5.40   3   9  39  14   105.0  118   63   44   57  16 
Diggins      5.40   5  14  26  25   135.0  139   81   77  100  18 
Saenz        5.43   4  11  21  21   106.0  106   64   53   98  20 
Housman*     5.46   4  11  28  23   127.0  134   77   65   96  21 
Cerros       5.63   2   3  28   5    56.0   60   35   30   36   8 
Novinsky     5.81   2   6  50   0    62.0   67   40   31   47  12 
Narron*      5.89   4  11  29  21   133.0  165   87   39   55  29 
Jones        5.92   2   6  14  14    76.0   80   50   61   43   6 
Costello*    6.03   4  12  34  19   118.0  124   79   81   95  18 
Habel*       6.34   3  13  31  21   122.0  133   86   66  104  29 
Sarfate      6.79   3  14  27  25   126.0  135   95   91  106  28 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Overbay*     1b  .299  .379  .465 149 536 160 48  1 13  72  76  70 113  1  1 
Lee          lf  .290  .355  .487 154 594 172 37  1 26  96  99  58  85 11  5 
Hart         rf  .277  .327  .461 128 462 128 29  4 16  69  68  31 104 19  9 
Jenkins*     lf  .273  .341  .484 140 550 150 33  4 25  79  86  50 132  2  1 
Kieschnick*  mr  .273  .347  .439  73  66  18  2  0  3   6   9   6  15  0  0 
Spivey       2b  .272  .359  .433 103 383 104 25  2 11  57  49  44  80  6  5 
Clark        rf  .271  .359  .389 132 332  90 19  1  6  36  39  39  43 12  6 
Fielder*     1b  .268  .344  .446 138 489 131 19  1 22  75  75  54  92  9  5 
Helms        3b  .262  .333  .417 111 362  95 17  0 13  37  48  33  89  0  1 
Erickson*    2b  .260  .327  .350 113 366  95 25  1  2  49  30  34  64 12  8 
Krynzel*     cf  .259  .333  .354 106 378  98 10  7  4  58  30  38 106 24 10 
Magruder#    lf  .255  .313  .383 124 381  97 22  3  7  47  40  30  76  6  4 
Hardy        ss  .252  .347  .397  83 305  77 14  0 10  53  42  43  38  4  2 
Gemoll*      1b  .251  .313  .391 122 394  99 23  1 10  45  48  33 100  4  5 
Branyan*     3b  .251  .342  .494 126 407 102 22  1 25  60  73  54 152  4  3 
Hall         ss  .251  .296  .367 137 471 118 22  3  9  56  49  29 118  9 10 
Miller       c   .249  .321  .387 109 362  90 23  0  9  35  46  38  87  0  1 
Cruz         lf  .248  .295  .421 135 496 123 28  2 18  81  68  31 143 10  7 
Knox         cf  .245  .303  .327 114 392  96 21  1  3  55  30  30  80 26 14 
Weeks        2b  .244  .317  .375 134 467 114 29  4  8  67  43  47 107 18  6 
Durrington   2b  .243  .313  .340 117 379  92 16  3  5  55  34  37  74 19 12 
Nelson*      1b  .240  .302  .391 124 445 107 23  1 14  55  58  36 124 14  5 
Moeller      c   .236  .303  .355  94 301  71 16  1  6  29  32  27  69  0  1 
Scarborough  ss  .235  .308  .364 118 387  91 26  3  6  42  38  38  96  3  4 
Cirillo      3b  .231  .294  .302 104 321  74 14  0  3  29  27  24  44  3  3 
Borders      c   .230  .263  .349  78 252  58 13  1  5  25  27   8  54  2  2 
Johnson*     c   .223  .327  .323  87 260  58 14  0  4  35  38  38  42  2  1 
Johnson      c   .221  .282  .344  85 285  63 12  1  7  36  32  22  69  5  3 
Cruz         3b  .221  .280  .357 128 412  91 15  1 13  54  46  31 119 10  6