Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians had probably the single most boring offseason of any organization in baseball. It was a long winter for beat writers around Cleveland, as few were able to master the intricacies of the Danys Baez contract situation, and apart from the failed trade of Omar Vizquel to the Mariners, there was nothing else to write about. Joe Ptak of the Cleveland Indians Report solved that problem with his Vlad-to-the-Indians hoax, but the rest of us simply had to watch with envy from the sidelines as other teams made actual deals for actual players.

Nevertheless, this organization is not simply treading water.

The Indians drafted their current plan in the spring of 2002 and put it into action with the trade of Bartolo Colon to the Expos. Between that time and the end of the 2003 season they were able to remove nearly every expensive veteran player on the major league roster, until the team seemed to consist entirely of rookies. In fact, of the 32 players on the current 40-man roster who have actually appeared in a major league game, 16 were 1st or 2nd year players in 2003. Only the Tigers (26.3) and Devil Rays (26.4) were younger than the last year's Indians average age of 26.7. Indeed, that number does not look to increase anytime soon as the contracts of Omar Vizquel, Bob Wickman, and Ricky Gutierrez expire after 2004, leaving Matt Lawton as the only significant veteran.

Out with the old...

• Danys Baez (roster shenanigans... signed with Tampa Bay)
• Chris Magruder (minor league deal with Milwaukee)
• Ellis Burks (will lace 'em up one more time for the Bosox)
• Jose Santiago and his fungibility (White Sox)
• Terry Mulholland (minor league deal with Seattle)

Fresh Meat

• Ronnie Belliard (FA)
• Jose Jimenez (FA)
• Scott Stewart (trade)
• Lou Merloni (minor leage FA)

(Possibly) Returning from Injury

• Bob Wickman (Tommy John late '02)
• Jason Bere (Shoulder. Currently at "80%" according to newspaper reports)
• Mark Wohlers (Gunning for honorary Charles Nagy "Bone on bone" award)
• Ricky Gutierrez

Looking Back

When Mark Shapiro inherited the Indians during the 2001 season, they were still considered a large-market team (the consecutive sellout streak, dating to 1995, was still intact) that had been built through John Hart's ability to identify the young players that would form the team's core and sign them to long-term contracts while the front office still had leverage over them. Thus, Sandy Alomar, Lofton, Thome, Belle, Ramirez, and others spent the prime years of their careers in Indians uniforms. But Hart's strategy masked one crucial fact about those teams: the farm system of the mid-to-late 90s Indians was extremely weak. The truly elite players that were drafted or originally signed by the Indians were Belle (drafted in '87), Thome (drafted in '89), Ramirez (drafted '91), and Colon (amateur free agent, '93). A pretty impressive group, to be sure, but the rest of their "core" players were acquired mostly via trades (Lofton, both Alomars, Travis Fryman) or free agency (Hershiser, Juan Gonzalez in 2001, a few others).

Hart's decision to trade the fruits of his farm system for veteran filler coupled with extremely poor drafts through the 1990s eventually devastated the team. Consider that four of their first round draft choices in the 1990s are now completely out of baseball and that only one (CC Sabathia, 1998) is still with the team. Of course, looking at only first round picks can give a distorted picture, but as the decade wore on, the drafts only seemed to get worse. Shapiro seemed to see the storm clouds on the horizon when he took over, but he evidently thought he was headed for a mere squall rather than a full-fledged, bury-the-needle, off-the-beaufort-scale hurricane when he made the worst set of deals in his short tenure: sending Robby Alomar along with Danny Peoples and Mike Bacsik to the Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Jerrod Riggan, Earl Snyder, and Billy Traber. Ricky Gutierrez was also signed at this time to play 2B, and his contract can be considered part of this deal. Alomar's lackluster play after this trade certainly shows that Shapiro traded him at the right time; however, he got the wrong players in return.

Once Shapiro realized his mistake he embarked on a remarkable plan to effectively re-create the lost drafts of the late 1990s. John Farrell, John Mirabelli, and Neal Huntington had finally put organization's scouting and player development apparatuses back on track, and after 2000 the team's drafts were much stronger. But there was still a complete lack of talent at the upper levels of the farm system, and the major league team was expensive, old, and getting older. So rather than try to rebuild via free agents or wait for future drafts, Shapiro decided to rewrite history. The players acquired via trades:

• Alex Escobar - undrafted FA, 1995
• Travis Hafner - drafted 31st round 1996
• Jody Gerut - drafted 2nd round 1998
• Josh Bard - drafted 3rd round 1999
• Ben Broussard - drafted 2nd round 1999
• Coco Crisp - drafted 7th round 1999
• Francisco Cruceta - undrafted FA, 1999
• Ryan Ludwick - drafted 2nd round 1999
• Brandon Phillips - drafted 2nd round 1999
• Cliff Lee - drafted 4th round 2000
• Grady Sizemore - drafted 3rd round 2000
• Billy Traber - drafted 1st round 2000

Some of these guys may turn out to be nothing more than useful spare parts or disappointing tools hounds, but Shapiro's ability to turn the Indians terrible drafts of the late 1990s into an organizational strength has been very impressive. It is from this group, along with the outstanding young players that were originally signed by the Indians (CC Sabathia and Victor Martinez for starters), that the next elite Indians team will be put together.

Looking Forward

What could go wrong?
Regression from Jason Davis and/or Sabathia is likely and would make the rotation a major weakness. Nagging injuries to Bradley, Ludwick, and Gerut could rob the Indians of the outfield depth that is their biggest strength. Injuries (Vizquel, Gutierrez), inexperience (Phillips, Peralta), and ineffectiveness (Belliard, McDonald, Merloni) could make the middle infield a Minnesota Twins-sized black hole.

What could go right?
You mean besides everybody staying healthy? The bullpen looks to be a real strength for this team, as it will be filled with durable and highly effective guys who can go multiple innings. Victor Martinez will enjoy a brief moment as the best young catcher in the AL before being eclipsed by Joe Mauer. Brandon Phillips might learn to take a pitch.

Prediction
This team remains on schedule to start its next long playoff run in 2005. Wedge and Shapiro will claim that they're aiming for the playoffs this year, but don't look for any midseason acquisitions. Rather, this year will be spent identifying the core players to have in place for 2005. For anyone who's not a dyed-in-the-wool Indians fan 2004 will appear on the surface to be just as dull as 2003, but a big name free agent signing (one of Glaus, Koskie, Chavez, or Vidro) next offseason will signal to the baseball world that this team is ready to compete deep into the postseason.

Hitters

C Josh Bard
Great catch-and-throw guy, but he's only the second best young, cheap, switch-hitting catcher on the team. The Indians claim they aren't shopping him but clearly Shapiro is simply waiting to be overwhelmed. If they can get good value for Bard, Shapiro will be reaping continuing dividends from one of his first (and best) trades: the June 2001 deal that sent Jacob Cruz to the Rockies for Josh Bard and Jody Gerut. In any case, there really is no hurry to trade him. He'll make close to the minimum for another 4+ years, and if Wedge is really that worried about Victor Martinez's defense Bard will make a fine late-inning replacement.

2B Ronnie Belliard
The Indians originally targetted Todd Walker for 2B, offering him a 1-year, $2.4 million deal. When he didn't immediately jump at it, they quickly withdrew the offer and signed Belliard for a year at around $1 million. Belliard hit 251/321/335 away from Coors in 2003, which, while it's pretty bad in absolute terms, easily eclipses the 553 OPS in 370 ABs put up by Brandon Phillips and the 538 OPS of veteran middle infielder John McDonald. It won't take much for the Indians to be improved at 2B.

The evidence on what happens to hitters the year after they leave Coors is conflicting -- some hitters lose OBP right away but get some of it back 2 seasons removed from Colorado (Jeffrey Hammonds, for example) and some, like Todd Walker, don't drop off much at all. It's likely that the biggest factor in how much a player will decline post-Coors is simply how good a hitter they were before playing there. If that's the case, the Indians had better hope they're not getting the 2002 Ronnie Belliard, who had a Phillips-esque 211/257/287 line for the Brewers. If he does turn out that bad (which ZiPS doesn't deem likely) they have a few other guys they can get their craptastic 2B innings from, like Lou Merloni, the mostly recovered Ricky Gutierrez, and the aforementioned Johnnie Mac.

3B Casey Blake
Surprisingly adequate. Good defense, a little pop, a good baserunner, very durable. Picking up Blake was a terrific low cost move by Shapiro that went almost completely unnoticed. He'll continue to be a cheap and reliable 3B for as long as the Indians care to keep him around. Given the star-crossed state of this position in the Indians minor league system, this is likely to be another 2 or 3 seasons at least. Unless the Indians land one of the Chavez/Glaus/Koskie free agent trifecta, of course.

CF Milton Bradley
2003 Numbers:
409/504/635/1139 vs LHP
282/385/443/828 vs RHP
Bradley had a tremendous breakout season in 2003. He stays back on the ball, with terrific bat control and a very discerning eye at the plate. Good, not great, defense in CF. The constant trade rumors surrounding Bradley refuse to go away, and the reasons aren't solely political. Bradley is without a doubt the most valuable player in the organization -- his combination of offense, defense, and affordable contract is unmatched by any other Indian, and if he can stay healthy through 2004 and put up numbers close to last year's he'll be positively Pujolsian in terms of overall value -- but he also happens to be an outfielder, and the Indians are awash in outfield talent. Escobar, Ludwick, Gerut, and Crisp have all played at least some CF in the minors (although the first three have all sustained injuries that keep them a notch below Bradley defensively, and Crisp's arm is weak) and Sizemore will arrive soon, with Jason Cooper, Ben Francisco, and Nathan Panther behind him. Like Josh Bard, Bradley is a guy that Shapiro won't go dangling in front of other teams, but he'll listen to offers and wait patiently for the right one to come along.

1B Ben Broussard
Quick stroke with efficient weight transfer -- seems like he should hit for more power than he has. A couple of big holes in his swing mean major problems against lefties and breaking stuff in general. Doesn't have a lot of time left to figure it out, since the organization seems to like Hafner's bat a little better, and Victor Martinez and Ryan Ludwick are likely to split 1B duties against LHP. The fact that he has an option left will work against him this year, as he's likely to shuffle back and forth between Buffalo and Cleveland before being traded.

OF Coco Crisp
Coco's plate discipline completely disappeared in the majors, to match his total lack of power. With a poor arm, his only value is as a pinch runner / designated bunter. If he regains the plate discipline he flashed at Buffalo, he can be an asset, but right now he is the first guy to go when Sizemore is ready. I don't know how to look up the stats on this, but I have to think Crisp led the majors in bunt attempts per PA. Come to think of it, maybe the Indians should trade him to Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox.

OF Alex Escobar
Escobar's 2003 stat line is pretty much meaningless. He missed all of 2002 after blowing out a knee in spring training and spent the first couple months last season just getting used to facing live pitching again. He was brought up to the big league club in mid August, and accomplished the somewhat unusual feat of having a better OBP in the majors (324, in 99 ABs) than in AAA (298, in 439 ABs).

Too often he goes up to the plate flailing at curves off the plate like a toolsy Mr. Hyde, but then once he's down in the count he'll shorten up and go all Dr. Jekyll as he waits for his pitch and then smacks the hell out of it. The problem is that his default mode at the plate seems to still be to take huge swings at whatever slop gets thrown up there, so he sees a lot of 1-2 counts. He really can make adjustments within an at bat, however, and is much stronger than one would expect with his 6'1", 190 lb frame. The quick, level swing he uses when he's down in the count is so much more effective than the big, wild one he uses early or when he's up, you really have to wonder why he doesn't just use it all the time.

OF Jody Gerut
A rotator cuff injury will bring Gerut back to earth in 2004. He'll still be the very picture of a "solid" major league outfielder, with slightly above average defense, power, and plate discipline. However, the throwing arm will be affected and he has already admitted he will no longer risk the spectacular sliding catches that were his specialty in 2003. The injury is also likely to rob him of some power, meaning he won't reach that .494 SLG again this season. There's a lot to like about Gerut, who is a very smart, dedicated, and talented blogger. He is likely to have a good career as a valuable and versatile 4th outfielder. Not an all-star, but considerably better than the injury-prone AAAA type a lot of folks thought he was a year ago. And big props to Bo Polak for talking up Gerut years ago.

IF Ricky Gutierrez
No-one can doubt Gutierrez's courage and desire to justify his multimillion doller, multiyear contract. He has been rehabbing non-stop since the surgery and it's easy to root for him to come back from a very frightening injury. The Indians especially are very thin in the middle infield, and with Vizquel (and to a lesser extent Belliard) likely to spend time on the DL on 2004, a healthy Ricky G is clearly a better option than John McDonald or Lou Merloni.

DH Travis Hafner
Travis Hafner bears a superficial resemblance to Jim Thome in that both are enormous left-handed first basemen who will take a walk. The difference, of course, comes when they take the bat off their shoulders. Well, they also differ in that Hafner is a comically bad defensive first baseman. Hafner has the potential to be a fine hitter, but replacing Thome at 1B was a tall order and some unfair expectations were placed on him. A nagging wrist injury robbed him of power and he seemed to get passive at the plate, going up there looking for a walk rather than using his tree-trunk arms to crush the ball like he should be doing. He improved as the season wore on, however, going 221/289/423 before the break and 273/348/519 after. I think the latter mark is closer to his true ability level and ZiPS seems to agree, although I think he'll show more power. I mean come on, look at the guy -- he's freakin' huge.

OF Matt Lawton
In contrast to Crisp, plate discipline is Lawton's only asset. Injuries have robbed him of speed, and his bat is noticeably slower than it was just a couple of years ago. With his Metrodome doubles going for singles on the grass at Jacobs Field, he has turned into the organization's biggest millstone. That said, at 32 he is not washed up by any means and if he stays healthy could have a much better season than many expect.

Early reports out of spring training are that Lawton is in terrific shape, or at least that you can see his abdominal muscles for the first time. These sorts of "Player X is in the best shape of his career" stories are pretty common in early March and anecdotal evidence seems to show that they mean absolutely zero. What is clear is that Lawton is working hard for the first time as an Indian, with the express purpose of being traded to a contending team come July.

Lawton's contract will be the last vestige of the John Hart Indians. When he was acquired from the Mets after the 2001 season for Robby Alomar, Shapiro expected Lawton to be a cornerstone in the outfield, a consistent performer with a reasonable veteran contract (4 years, ~$28 million). That didn't last very long. The market correction for veterans' contracts followed quickly, Lawton's OBP dropped 40 points, and the remaking of the franchise began in earnest with the Colon deal in June of 2002. Vizquel will be gone after 2004, as will Wickman and Gutierrez, but Shapiro has a full two seasons of Matt Lawton to suffer through. An expensive, roster-clogging daily reminder of the danger of locking yourself into multi year veteran contracts.

OF/1B Ryan Ludwick
Ludwick has the best raw power on the team. He has a slightly long swing and will chase balls low in the strike zone, but when he makes solid contact he hits the ball a hell of a long way with his extremely powerful shoulders and trunk. Showed good plate discipline and power throughout his minor league career, but has been slowed by injuries in the majors, including the knee surgery that he has been recovering from this offseason. Will likely start the season in extended spring training or in Buffalo, but as soon as he's fully healed he'll be up since Wedge loves his bat and his admittedly impressive "clutch" totals (1069 OPS w/ RISP in 47 ABs).

C Victor Martinez
The best hitter to come up through the organization since Belle/Ramirez/Thome. Will be overshadowed by Mauer throughout his career, but will still be a tremendous offensive catcher as long as he remains at that position. He will likely log quite a few ABs at DH in 2004. He sports gap power and excellent ratios from both sides of the plate. Has reportedly "completely transformed" his body with offseason workouts, so a power spike is a possibility.

SS Jhonny Peralta
Peralta, who was the youngest position player in the American Leage for much of last season, is not your classic prospect. He is adequate at shortstop, with very little power and only decent plate discipline. His body is short and thick, more like a third baseman's or a catcher's. However, he has been extremely young at every level at which he has played, and has always been at least a league-average offensive player. A couple of things about Peralta make me think that he's going to surprise people this year: First, when you saw him up close last year, you could really tell he was immature physically, with a lot of baby fat. He, along with Victor Martinez, is supposed to have put on a lot of muscle and gotten his body fat way down with offseason workouts this winter. He has a very quick swing, so extra upper body strength should show up right away in his SLG. Second, although Eddie Murray has been criticized for his work as a batting coach (occasionally succumbing to "Dammit, just watch me do it" syndrome), he improved in 2003 as he became more comfortable in his role as mentor. He has reportedly spent extra time working with Peralta late last year and in the offseason, trying to get Peralta to keep his head still and stay back on the ball better. Better pitch recognition, a quieter swing, decent numbers at an extremely young age, and a stronger body make Peralta a potential breakout guy in 2004.

2B/SS Brandon Phillips
"The Franchise" completely fell on his face in 2003. Still extremely young, but unlikely to succeed with the Indians, which is an organization that stresses a systematic approach to hitting, something with Phillips seems to resist because he has been able to rely on natural talent to get to the majors. Facing failure for the first time, and especially after changing organizations, it must be easy to blame the coaches who are telling you to change the approach that has always worked for you. Never mind that you aren't actually heeding their advice against live pitching.

Note his defense never suffered and when you watch him make one terrific play after another at 2B, you can see the natural athletic charisma that still makes people think he's going to be a star. Hell, he probably is. But it's going to take a major mental adjustment for him to be successful in the major leagues, and I'm not optimistic that this will happen in the next 2 or even 3 years.

And an apology is in order to Charlie Saeger, who was rightly concerned about Phillips's losing plate discipline as he moved up the ladder.

SS Omar Vizquel

PITCHERS

RHRP Rafael Betancourt
Just another useful arm collected by Mark Shapiro for virtually nothing. A converted middle infielder, Betancourt gets plenty of strikeouts (36 Ks in 38 IP in the majors, 75 Ks in 45.1 IP at AA) and since he's only been a pitcher for about two years, he has very little wear on his arm and can pitch multiple innings.

RHRP Jack Cressend
The Indians snagged Cressend off the waiver wire following the 2002 season after he had shoulder surgery. He was brought up in late June of 2003 and pitched effectively in a limited middle relief role. He didn't strike many people out (28 Ks) and he didn't generate many ground balls (0.84 G/F ratio), but he only gave up 1 home run in 43 innings. Right now he's a pretty generic right handed reliever, but he's coming up on two years since his surgery and if he regains a few more MPH on his fastball to go along with his improved curve, he could be very valuable.

Cressend is one of my favorite players, maybe just because he's so anonymous. I suspect a lot of people have one or two players they root for even though they aren't particularly great, maybe just because they share a hometown or a common interest or maybe just because they like that player's name. Anyway, as someone who's changed careers twice and been laid off a few times over the past 5 years, I can identify with a guy who was a non-drafted free agent, made the transition from power righty to curveball specialist after being injured, and got waived by two different teams.

RHSP Jason Davis
Tall and athletic, Davis gets excellent movement on his sinking fastball, and it is a very effective pitch. He also throws a slider and a split, which really are just variations on his sinker. Surprisingly, for a guy who features a premier sinking fastball, Davis doesn't have a great GB/FB ratio (1.40) and he doesn't strike a lot of guys out. In fact, his K/9 was 4.63 last year, which is right at the Bill James cutoff for continued effectiveness at the major league level. As I see it, there are three of explanations for these facts:

- Davis's stuff just isn't very effective and he's a marginal guy who will get lit up this year

- He's a young, inexperienced pitcher who doesn't yet know how to set up hitters and change speeds

- His limited repertoire lets batters sit on the sinker and knock it through the infield.

Having seen Davis up close a few times, I think his sinker is a legitimately great pitch that can give even the best hitters fits, so I discount the first point. As for the second, I don't think Davis is calling his own game out there, and his catchers should be responsible for pitch selection. So I really think it's mostly the last; Jason Davis is a one-pitch pitcher, and there's a place for guys like that: the bullpen.

RHRP Jose Jimenez
Jimenez has a terrific sinker and not much else, but one pitch is all you need to be a good reliever. For all the talk of how saves are overrated, the Indians were able to sign away the Rockies' all-time saves leader for a mere 1 year, $1 million contract. One of the benefits of having multiple guys in the bullpen with lots of saves to their credit is Wedge won't feel pressured to give them rigid roles. He doesn't always have to bring out Wickman (or Riske, or Jimenez, or Stewart, or...) in the 9th, and he will be able to use whichever pitcher matches up best against the hitters due up the next inning. Whether he will actually use this flexibility to maximize the value of his relievers is an open question, but certainly he'll hear less squawking from the media about it than the Red Sox did last year for doing the same thing.

LHSP Cliff Lee
Big time stuff, big time control problems. Heavy low 90s fastball, nice tight break on the slider, huge break on the curve which he can reliably throw for strikes when his mechanics are on and which is a devastating out pitch. However, he can lose the strike zone very quickly. If he can keep his delivery quiet, he's the best starter on the team. If he can't, he's going to put a lot of guys on base.

RHRP David Riske
See, here's a really great one-pitch pitcher. Riske will return to the setup role to start the season and will be a part of a very strong bullpen. You have to figure most teams are going to be glad to see Wickman's motley assortment of junk in the 9th after waving in futility at Riske's explosive fastballs in the 8th.

LHSP CC Sabathia
6'7" and listed at 290 lbs., Sabathia throws his fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and when he can get his curveball over, he's very effective. But his inconsistent mechanics and poor conditioning prevent him from depending on his breaking ball and the fact is his fastball is simply not overpowering. His walks have dropped every year, from 95 (in 180 IP) in 2001 to 66 (in 198 IP) in 2003, and his K/BB spiked in 2003, going from 1.69 to 2.14 as his K/9 stayed constant at 6.4. So, it appears that Sabathia is becoming a more efficient pitcher, learning to use his defense to get outs rather than relying on his good-but-not-great stuff. CC generates a lot of momentum with his gigantic glutes and legs and while his motion isn't exactly silky smooth, it also doesn't have any hitches or unusual stresses that flag him as an injury risk. Yeah, he's pitched a lot of innings, but he's never been on the DL and may just be, like Bartolo Colon before him, a chunky but surprisingly durable fastballer.

Because Sabathia has three full seasons under his belt, it's easy to forget that he won't turn 24 until July. Some refinements to his mechanics, a little more maturity and dedication to conditioning, and a reliable curveball would make CC an elite pitcher. It's a safe bet that won't happen in 2004, but one of these years it will. Dolan better start saving his pennies.

LHSP Jason Stanford
Just another unheralded but promising young pitcher in the Indians organization. Got a break when his more highly regarded teammates Brian Tallet and Billy Traber went down with Tommy John surgery and he made the most of it, although his 3.60 ERA in the majors wasn't quite as good as it looked, as he only struck out 30 batters in 50 innings. However, he was having a very solid season at Buffalo before being called up (3.43 ERA, 108 Ks, 25 BBs in 126 innings) and is a smart, durable guy who knows how to use his stuff. He's a good bet to start the season in the 5th starter slot and become the team's least flashy and most consistent starter.

LHRP Scott Stewart
Like Escobar, Stewart's past stat lines aren't a whole lot of use for gauging his true level of ability. At the very least, he should be a useful LOOGY, and if Wedge is smart and Stewart is fully recovered from his injuries of a year ago, he can be a lot more than that. In any case, he's more useful to the team than the spare parts that were dealt for him (AA slugger Ryan Church and no-stick AAA 2B Maicer Isturiz).

RHSP Jake Westbrook
Westbrook works low in the strike zone, throws his fastball around 90, and gets lots of ground balls when he's going good. Plays very good defense and would be a great innings eater if he didn't always get tired around the 70 pitch mark. Westbrook is a versatile and valuable pitcher who can start, pitch long relief, or come in and get the double play grounder against a tough hitter.

RHRP Bob Wickman
Everybody's favorite beer-swilling cheesehead is back after Tommy John surgery one year ago. Given that most pitchers need about 18 months to fully recover from TJ and Wickman's not exactly in prime physical condition, expectations should probably be kept low. In any case, he'll be handed the closer's role to start the season, and if he can't get the job done the Indians have a wealth of other options.

PROSPECTS YOU'LL SEE THIS YEAR

Grady Sizemore
Currently the top prospect in the organization, Sizemore should make one of the outfielders ahead of him (Bradley or Gerut, most likely) expendable over the next 18 months. Right now he doesn't have much power, but he does a lot of things well: 304/373/480 in a full season at AA, with 26 doubles and 13 HRs. He's fast on the basepaths and in the field, although his SB success ratio was a horrid 52%. He can cover a lot of ground in the outfield but will probably be a LF in the majors because of a below-average arm. No one tool of his really jumps out at you, but he's an excellent all-around baseball player. You always see the word "gritty" when people write about Sizemore and there are a lot of comparisons to Darin Erstad, probably because both guys are former football players who still haven't learned to relax. Hopefully Sizemore will be able to keep his excellent plate discipline when he arrives in the majors and stay healthy, two feats that Erstad has had trouble with. In any case, if his low-end comp is Erstad he should be a pretty good player.

Jeremy Guthrie
Guthrie started his first pro season at AA and flashed a terrific 1.44 ERA but few strikeouts -- only 35 in 62.2 innings, for a 5.02 K/9 ratio. Once promoted to AAA his K/9 actually improved slightly to 5.77 but his ERA ballooned to 6.52 and he was clearly struggling. Guthrie has a good low 90s fastball that he can command within the strike zone, but by the end of 2003 he still hadn't learned to set it up with the rest of his repertoire. I still think he'll be a pretty good pitcher -- at 25 he's old for a player in his 2nd pro season, but he obviously still has a lot to learn since he was able to get by solely on his raw stuff in college. Half a season of AAA should be enough to bring the strikeout rate up and the ERA down and earn him a spot in the Indians rotation. I look for him to replace Jason Davis in the rotation after the All-Star break.

Kazuhito Tadano

Pretty impressive for his first year as a professional baseball player. Tadano reportedly has a very advanced repertoire of pitches and was a starter in college, so it's something of a mystery why he's been placed in the bullpen with no apparent thought given to seeing what he can do as a starter. It could simply be that the front office thought that the quickest and easiest way to ease him into north American baseball would be in a relief role, and he was so successful at it that they decided not to mess with a good thing. At any rate, they can always keep him in the bullpen again this season and re-evaluate next year.

Fernando Cabrera
Big, strong right hander drafted out of high school in Puerto Rico. Cabrera was a starter through his minor league career until being moved to the bullpen in the middle of last season, and with his heavy mid-90s fastball he will get a lot of Ks in the Francisco Rodriguez relief ace role if given a chance. I could have sworn I saw something about him having shoulder problems in winter ball a few months back, but I can't find anything on the web about it now. If he's healthy, he ought to dominate AAA and be the second guy called up to the pen, after Tadano.

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Hafner*            1b  .275  .374  .475  115  404   57  111  23   2  18   65   61   96   2   2 
Gerut*             rf  .288  .357  .490  135  527   79  152  33   2  23   87   51   73   9   8 
Bradley#           cf  .281  .376  .436  114  413   60  116  28   3  10   53   60   86  15   7 
Martinez#          c   .296  .366  .443  127  467   69  138  27   0  14   68   49   60   1   2 
Broussard*         1b  .263  .342  .457  135  475   72  125  25   2  21   74   53   98   5   2 
Ludwick            rf  .260  .333  .466  122  461   70  120  26   3  21   73   46  118   2   3 
Crisp#             cf  .304  .365  .406  146  606   90  184  28   8   6   60   53   73  25  15 
Piatt              lf  .261  .343  .423   90  272   40   71  20   0   8   38   32   57   3   2 
Clapinski#         2b  .268  .331  .432   89  287   39   77  19   2   8   37   24   49   2   1 
Lawton*            lf  .251  .349  .411  117  435   67  109  26   1  14   59   62   51  13   7 
Sizemore*          lf  .284  .352  .403  129  461   82  131  17   7   8   48   43   73  10   8 
Bard#              c   .279  .335  .420  124  438   41  122  24   1  12   58   33   64   1   2 
Escobar            cf  .261  .312  .461  146  532   74  139  21   2  27   87   35  171   7   4 
Peralta            ss  .273  .349  .385  132  462   57  126  19   3   9   52   50   83   4   3 
Merloni            3b  .274  .355  .366   75  175   25   48  11   1   1   16   21   34   1   3 
Blake              3b  .263  .324  .411  140  521   77  137  33   1  14   68   43   98   9   9 
Young              rf  .242  .315  .397  102  388   48   94  21   0  13   52   38  110   3   4 
Belliard           2b  .247  .320  .367  112  401   52   99  26   2   6   46   41   64   5   2 
Gutierrez          ss  .267  .320  .362  108  389   44  104  20   1   5   41   26   46   1   2 
Smith              3b  .244  .327  .345  132  476   55  116  20   2   8   48   55   97   5   2 
Vizquel#           ss  .242  .321  .357  124  471   61  114  31   4   5   44   51   49  10   9 
Garcia             1b  .237  .294  .371  118  434   48  103  23   1  11   52   31   94   1   3 
Phillips           2b  .243  .285  .369  152  536   62  130  25   2  13   62   27   96  10   6 
Laker              c   .223  .280  .343   50  175   17   39  12   0   3   19   13   43   1   1 
McDonald           2b  .232  .282  .288  102  302   34   70  12   1   1   22   18   52   5   4 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Wickman              3.00   3   2  56   0    57.0   48   19   4   12   52 
Stewart*             3.46   3   2  60   0    52.0   47   20   4   15   45 
Tadano               3.51   4   3  33   0    77.0   69   30   8   22   74 
Cressend             3.51   3   2  43   0    59.0   56   23   3   17   39 
Jimenez              3.71   6   5  65   4    85.0   87   35   5   22   46 
Sabathia*            3.78  12  11  32  32   193.0  169   81  17   72  154 
Traber*              3.90   9   9  30  22   136.0  132   59  15   36   97 
Riske                3.94   2   2  62   0    64.0   50   28   9   27   81 
Betancourt           4.00   2   2  33   0    36.0   31   16   5   13   37 
Stanford*            4.10   8   9  30  26   156.0  153   71  18   43  110 
Miller               4.14   4   3  57   0    63.0   57   29   3   32   57 
Wohlers              4.17   3   3  63   0    69.0   66   32   6   26   49 
Bartosh*             4.22   2   3  59   0    64.0   62   30   6   24   45 
D'Amico              4.35   9  11  27  25   155.0  165   75  22   35   95 
Sadler*              4.37   3   4  53   0    68.0   62   33   4   36   50 
Cruceta              4.38  10  12  27  25   156.0  148   76   9   76  100 
Cabrera              4.40   5   6  31  13    92.0   85   45  10   41   76 
Westbrook            4.42   6   8  29  18   110.0  112   54   8   42   55 
Durbin               4.43   6  10  23  22   128.0  128   63  18   38   94 
Bere                 4.44   7  10  25  25   146.0  140   72  21   49  122 
Carrara              4.62   3   4  51   1    76.0   75   39  11   27   49 
Howry                4.64   3   3  51   0    64.0   67   33   7   22   45 
Guthrie              4.65   6  10  28  27   153.0  164   79  20   45   81 
Davis                4.66   6  10  24  24   137.0  145   71  19   39   79 
Tallet*              4.68   5   8  24  22   127.0  129   66  14   51   78 
Lee*                 4.80   6  11  25  25   133.0  124   71  20   59  121 
Hackman              4.81   2   3  52   2    73.0   73   39   7   35   46 
Young*               5.03   3   4  53   0    59.0   54   33   5   39   50 
Ellis                5.46   6   7  30  23   145.0  176   88  20   44   60 
Porzio*              5.53   5   9  35  22   135.0  147   83  26   57   96