Oakland A’s Preview

In last year’s A’s preview, while looking ahead to this season, I wrote the following:

It may not be exciting, but expect the 2005 A’s to look a lot like the 2004 A’s.

In fairness to me, I didn’t see this as a good thing. And I wrote:

There are two solutions to this. First, stick with what you’ve got for 2005 and don’t resign Hudson. Second, extend Hudson but trade Mulder or Zito this coming offseason.

Well, that was a bit more brilliant. And I even added “maybe they should trade them both!”

So they didn’t extend Tim Hudson, they traded him and Mark Mulder … so they could clear payroll, make room in the rotation, restock some talent, and trade for an expensive catcher.

What went right in 2004?

At the end of August, the A’s were 78-53, on pace for 96 wins, with a 3 game lead in the AL West. Despite losing Miguel Tejada, they scored 25 more runs than 2003. Eric Chavez had a big year and finally hit lefties. So did Erubiel Durazo. Mark Kotsay was a huge upgrade on Terrence long. Hudson pitched well again, Rich Harden broke out, and Justin Duchscherer pitched 96 innings of relief with a 143 OPS+.

What went wrong in 2004?

The A’s went 13-18 in September and finished one game back of the Angels. More worrisome, they had only 86 pythagorean wins for the year. They gave up 99 more runs than in 2003. The bullpen stunk early and the rotation stunk late. Second base was a disaster. A decent-looking bench hit badly. Hudson missed 6 starts and Chavez missed a month. On the bright side, they didn’t blow a playoff series.

What’s Happened in the Offseason?

Three big trades: Jason Kendall (for Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes); Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas, and Juan Cruz (for Tim Hudson); Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton (for Mark Mulder); Keith Ginter (for Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr).

The team is in the process of being sold. This could mean more payroll and almost certainly more threats to move the team over the next couple years.

Looking Ahead to 2005

The biggest questions facing the A’s are “how did the Kendall trade work out?” “how did the Mulder trade work out?” “how did the Hudson trade work out?” “who’s playing second?” and “what else is new?”

Jason Kendall for Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes with a couple million here and a couple million there.

Here’s what we know about this trade: o Kendall has been one of the top 5 or so Cs for many years now o Kendall is overpaid at $32 M over the next 3 years o But given the A’s sunk costs in Redman and Rhodes, he’ll only cost them about $6 M per year

That last point means that if Kendall continues to perform at his accustomed level, this trade will work out quite well for the A’s. So the question becomes “what are the chances Kendall maintains?” Kendall’s uniqueness as a player makes that an extra tough question to answer, but doing the best we can, the answer doesn’t look so promising.

Through his career, Kendall has been highly durable. His 1205 games caught through age 30 is tied for 8th all time. The problem is that those other 8 Cs averaged only 318 games caught after age 30. (Note, that does not include games at other positions, but Ted Simmons was the only one who played a substantial number of games elsewhere. Interestingly, the list does not include Carlton Fisk or Bob Boone as neither had even 900 games caught through age 30.)

This pattern of reduced usage, usually due to health, holds almost no matter how you cut the data. Of the 62 Cs who caught at least 800 games through age 30, only 30 of them caught 300+ games after 30. Of the 11 of those who had OBPs of 360 or better, 9 did go on to catch at least 300 more games, but only 5 of them topped 300 games for ages 31-33. Of the 28 who caught at least 375 games from 28-30, only 13 topped 300 games from 31-33.

The reason for the reduced playing time does not appear to be poor performance to that point. There was almost no difference in average performance through age 30 between those who remained durable and those that didn’t – in fact, the less durable tended to have slightly higher BAs and OBPs. Not surprisingly, there were differences after age 30, especially in slugging.

The upshot of all this is that there looks to be about a 50% chance that Kendall will not remain healthy or will collapse during the next three years. The positive is that those who remained durable saw only a modest decline in performance (around 5-7% in each category), which is roughly typical for players that age.

At a marginal cost of $6 M per season, Kendall is probably a good risk. He’s starting at such a high point of performance point that even if he declines or can only give them 80-100 effective games a year, he’s likely to be a substantial improvement. But it’s more a high risk/high reward scenario than a sure thing. But at least they gave up two players they don’t need. Or did they?

Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas for Tim Hudson Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder

At first glance, these are classic low-payroll trades where expensive vets are dumped for kids. There are two differences here though. First, except for Daric Barton, Oakland isn’t getting kids – they’re major-league ready players basically entering their primes. Second, they had control over Mulder, at a reasonable price, through 2006 – they didn’t have to get rid of him now. Supposedly, Oakland needed to move both these salaries. But Jason Kendall is basically costing them (in marginal $s) what Mulder would have. Kendall over Mulder is not an obvious conclusioin.

This appears to leave the As with a rotation of Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Meyer – though it’s possible Meyer or Blanton may start in the minors. That’s the sort of rotation that could use a guy who’s a good bet for 200 league-average innings – a guy like Mark Redman.

I think Hudson was the guy to keep here. I think they could have traded Redman for a decent catcher, dumped Rhodes somewhere, made the Mulder trade, and wrapped Hudson up. But I’m not a certified genius.

Did they get enough in return? Breaking up the Big 3 was inevitable, but I expected them to use those trades to fix the offense, not restock the pitching. Well, runs is runs.

These trades are really about three players – Haren, Meyer, and Barton. Thomas, after an incredibly mediocre minor-league career, appears to have turned into a solid 4th OF and is a very useful part. Cruz and Calero are good relievers, but those guys grow on trees (in Atlanta and Anaheim at least). Those are nice throw-ins that improve the A’s depth for a couple years, but won’t make or break these trades.

Haren’s a tough call. Absolutely dominant in A and AA, Haren has been pretty mediocre in AAA and the majors so far. At AAA, he still had a great K/BB ratio, but also gave up 25 HR in just 173 IP. He’s still only 25 and almost all pitchers take a while to figure it out at the major-league level. He should be good … but not Hudson/Mulder good.

Meyer is fortunately not the former 1B/OF who somehow amassed over 4,000 PA despite an 86 career OPS+. Meyer does look like he could be Hudson/Mulder good or maybe even better. Zipping through the minors with about 10 K/9, a 4.5 K/BB, and a HR every 15 innings, he’s no more than a half-season away. He’s 23 and it would be foolish to think he’ll step right in and be good … but then it was foolish to think Hudson and Zito would do that.

“Super Prospect” Daric Barton (Oakland Tribune) was rated the #5 hitting prospect in all the minors and graded an A- by John Sickels. Baseball America is less bullish putting him at #32 overall. He’s being moved to first because he apparently makes George Mitterwald look like Johnny Bench. In 2007-2008, the A’s are banking on Barton, Quintanilla, Crosby, and Chavez being the dominant infield in the majors.

Meyer and Barton need to pay off big for these trades to work for the A’s, but more importantly because the A’s are increasingly desperate for young, cheap stars.

Ginter vs. Ellis: Second to None.

Looks like it’s a draw, with probably more time going to Mark Ellis (if he stays healthy). Ginter’s having a lousy spring, but Ken Macha brought a tear of joy to my eye when he was asked about it:

"It's a small sample. (Career numbers) are a bigger sample size than down here."

Ginter’s the better bat (though no Jeff Kent) and Ellis is the better defender (he’s very, very good). An offensive-defensive platoon might make sense, but I also like the idea of Ginter floating and picking up PAs at 2B, 3B and even 1B and DH (not a perfect choice for those last two, but no worse than Kielty).

What else is new?

Nick Swisher replaces Jermaine Dye. I’m not sold that Swisher will ever be much more than a Rob Deer type (low average, good walks and power) but he should be able to replace Dye’s production of last year. ZIPS agrees.

Chad Bradford is hurt. Kirk Saarloos decided not to have surgery and is pitching well this spring. For some dumb reason, they signed Keiichi Yabu, a 36 year-old Japanese pitcher with a lousy projection and now a $1 M contract.

2005 Forecast

Moneyball seems to have rediscovered OBP. Last year’s A’s had an OBP of 343 (league average 333). According to ZIPS, there are only 3 players expected to get significant time with OBP projections below 343 – Ellis and Ginter, who are still above league-average at 334 and 340 respectively, and backup C Adam Melhuse. The power’s still pretty average, but the A’s will reach base this year and score more runs.

The A’s were #3 in the AL in defensive efficiency last year and #2 in 2003 and there’s no reason to expect much difference this year. Kotsay, Chavez, and Ellis are among the best at their positions. There may be a small dropoff in RF.

After a lousy start, the bullpen ended up being about league average last year. Octavio Dotel remains the closer, Ricardo Rincon figures to be the only lefty (the A’s foolishly let Chris Hammond sign cheap with San Diego), and the A’s have roughly 17 serviceable to good righties (Duchscherer, Cruz, Calero, Harikkala, Saarloos, Etherton, Yabu, along with kids Houston Street and Chris Mabeus – OK he’s 26). The pen should be above average, but don’t expect great things unless Dotel returns to form and Street is the new Dotel.

Now, about that rotation. As of last weekend, Macha said Plan A (Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, Meyer) was still the plan and that is promising. If ZIPS is correct, there won’t be much dropoff from last year’s performance. Note, that’s performance not talent. Zito, Mulder, and Redman were pretty average and ZIPS expects Zito, Meyer, and Haren to be pretty average with Harden and, somewhat surprisingly, Blanton being good. I suspect ZIPS is a bit optimistic here. Three rookies and one second-year pitcher and not one blows up? I think that would be a major-league first. The A's have been making noises about making one of Etherton, Saarloos, or Yabu the 5th starter and start Dan Meyer in the minors, so we might not see if the A's can buck the historical trend.

The problem overall is that the 2004 A’s didn’t quite get it done. This year’s offense should be better but the pitching should be at least a little worse, leaving them about the same. They had 86 pythagorean wins last year and 91 real wins and that range looks good to me for this year – let’s call it 88 wins. Competitive but that won’t get it done. But this is a team with a lot of upside so a division title remains within reach. Since Beane is clearly in restocking mode, I don’t expect him to make any mid-season trades to pick up a veteran to fill a hole.

What could go wrong?

For the first time in a while, the A’s got hit by injuries. Even so, it was just 6 starts for Hudson and a month of Chavez – as things go, that’s still getting off pretty easy. The A’s are a pretty deep team. Kielty and Thomas are good 4th OFs and a platoon of those two would adequately replace any of the starting OFs. Plus all 5 OFs have at least some experience in center. Shawn Garrett and Jason Perry lurk in the minors – not great but what do you want out of an “emergency” fifth OF?

Ginter provides more insurance at 3B than the A’s have had in a while and ZIPS even projects AAA SS Mike Rouse to a 354 OBP. If Hatteberg or Durazo are hurt, Dan Johnson will be an adequate replacement. If Kendall goes down, there’s big trouble.

Obviously significant injuries to Chavez, Kendall, Crosby, Durazo, or Kotsay would be a big blow, but only an injury to Kendall would really cripple this team. Too bad he seems the one most likely to be injured.

But all eyes will be on the rotation which clearly could blow up (and god forbid Harden blows out his arm). Etherton, Saarloos, Yabu, Duchscherer, and Cruz are decent options but unlike many previous seasons, the A’s don’t have a young phenom who’ll be kicking down the door at the ASB (because they’re already in the rotation).

Finally, the new owners could fire Billy Beane and replace him with Dave Littlefield.

Looking beyond 2005. Hey Hey! Ho Ho! Barry Zito’s got to go! I’m not sure if it will be by trade or free agency but he’ll be gone before 2007 unless the new owners do expand payroll. If Meyer and Harden develop, that won’t be a problem.

The best thing for the future is that John Sickels credits the A’s with three A- prospects (Meyer, Barton, Street), 5 B+, 4 B, and 2 B-. The future looks bright. As mentioned earlier, an infield of Barton, Quintanilla, Crosby, and Chavez is “just around the corner.” Swisher and Robnett in the OF, Suzuki and Powell behind the plate, Meyer, Harden, Blanton, and Haren in the rotation, Street and Garcia in the pen – that’s a lot of cheap (except Chavez) talent with a decent amount of money to fill in the holes.

As the new owners come in, look for the A’s to try to tie up Crosby and Harden long-term next offseason. Hatteberg should finally be gone, probably with Johnson as a placeholder for Barton in 2006. If the A’s aren’t in the race, look for Dotel and Rincon to be moved at the deadline (if not before). One or both of Ginter/Ellis will likely be gone before next season to open an opportunity for Quintanilla.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Dotel        3.41   7   4  78   0    87.0   68   33   31  110  10 
Calero       3.60   2   1  35   0    40.0   35   16   14   46   6 
Bradford     3.78   6   4  71   0    69.0   66   29   23   50   5 
Duchschere   3.85   8   6  35  14   124.0  126   53   23   84  15 
Mabeus       3.88   5   4  49   0    72.0   65   31   24   66   8 
Harden       3.89  12   9  32  31   185.0  164   80   80  167  15 
Blanton      3.89  12   8  30  26   171.0  172   74   39  122  20 
Harikkala    4.02   7   6  39  11   112.0  121   50   23   51  11 
Rincon*      4.06   3   3  67   0    51.0   47   23   23   41   4 
Cruz         4.06   4   4  42   8    93.0   84   42   42   83   8 
Saarloos     4.19   8   7  35  21   129.0  127   60   43   91  14 
Street       4.19   3   2  21   0    43.0   40   20   16   37   5 
Zito*        4.23  13  12  35  35   217.0  209  102   82  165  23 
Meyer*       4.27   9   7  28  26   139.0  132   66   49  125  19 
Etherton     4.47   8   7  26  26   147.0  152   73   43  103  21 
Rheinecker   4.53   9   8  29  28   175.0  182   88   52  115  25 
Haren        4.53  10  11  33  28   169.0  170   85   47  141  30 
Ziegler      4.91   7   9  27  25   152.0  167   83   35  100  30 
Reames       5.09   4   5  36  14    99.0   99   56   52   73  13 
Serrano      5.16   4   6  42   9   103.0  104   59   54   93  14 
Fahrner      5.20   3   3  50   0    64.0   61   37   38   59   9 
Yabu         5.22   6   8  20  16   112.0  126   65   35   65  21 
Ramos*       5.28   5   8  29  21   133.0  143   78   55   89  23 
Garcia       5.45   1   2  22   4    38.0   34   23   34   38   3 
Sylvester    6.22   2   5  52   3    68.0   62   47   59   78  12 
Sullivan     6.22   6  11  27  24   136.0  151   94   69   96  31 
Smyth*       6.53   4   8  26  20   113.0  124   82   74   77  21 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Chavez*      3b  .278  .376  .522 144 557 155 30  2 34  91 102  88  97  7  3 
Kotsay*      cf  .306  .371  .452 145 578 177 34  4 14  76  69  60  75  8  6 
Durazo*      1b  .292  .389  .480 141 500 146 32  1 20  78  81  76  98  2  2 
Kendall      c   .306  .385  .381 146 582 178 30  1  4  79  58  58  38  9  5 
Johnson*     1b  .268  .355  .451 143 519 139 22  2 23  79  83  67  92  2  1 
Byrnes       cf  .279  .345  .459 136 499 139 34  4 16  78  67  44  91 13  1 
Crosby       ss  .262  .343  .434 147 534 140 30  1 20  76  74  60 124  9  4 
Hatteberg*   1b  .261  .349  .400 146 528 138 29  1 14  68  69  68  50  0  0 
Ellis        2b  .260  .334  .378 145 534 139 31  4  8  75  53  55  85  6  2 
Swisher#     lf  .234  .349  .422 122 431 101 25  1 18  78  64  74 112  2  2 
Watson*      lf  .270  .336  .446 115 433 117 29  1 15  61  65  40  64  5  4 
Ginter       2b  .254  .340  .430 125 421 107 25  2 15  52  59  48 100  4  2 
Garrett#     rf  .269  .324  .403 131 491 132 24  3 12  74  58  37 119 17 10 
Thomas*      lf  .291  .353  .425 128 412 120 21  5  8  57  43  37  80  6  4 
Cust*        lf  .236  .361  .409 117 394  93 18  1 16  60  54  75 139  3  3 
Smith        3b  .249  .304  .441 127 465 116 33  1 18  65  66  34 103  7  7 
Quintanilla* ss  .274  .319  .400 120 463 127 28  3  8  71  54  27  61  3  3 
Scutaro      2b  .280  .324  .415 129 414 116 28  2  8  49  46  27  58  3  3 
Rouse*       ss  .265  .354  .361 118 388 103 17  1  6  58  39  51  77  3  1 
Kielty#      lf  .241  .359  .400 113 340  82 19  1 11  49  45  59  69  4  2 
Baker*       c   .243  .302  .368 133 465 113 24  2 10  60  55  36 125  2  1 
Perry*       lf  .262  .313  .460 106 367  96 27  2 14  64  53  25 103  4  4 
Morrissey    2b  .250  .316  .361 119 424 106 21  1  8  58  48  39  97  3  1 
Bynum*       2b  .247  .307  .316 136 522 129 18  3  4  73  42  42 127 26 21 
Clark*       2b  .230  .321  .333 124 405  93 12  3  8  57  52  52  60 21 13 
Brown        c   .229  .324  .316 106 367  84 17  0  5  45  34  49  71  1  1 
Barton*      c   .240  .337  .345  99 304  73 11  0  7  51  37  39  66  2  3 
Snyder       3b  .232  .311  .329  99 319  74 11  1  6  34  31  37  84  5  2 
Melhuse#     c   .241  .311  .394  90 274  66 15  0  9  32  36  28  61  1  2 
Bocachica    cf  .233  .299  .406  95 266  62 14  1 10  35  33  24  61 10  9 
Castro       3b  .201  .275  .279  79 229  46  9  3  1  29  19  22  42  7  3