Houston Astros

Well, you know what the big news is. Houston hasn?t been this sexy since the days of Lee Horsley. The twin-gun signings of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte has been cause for celebration throughout south Texas since the two inked their contracts. And they?ve been joined at the hip in media profile after profile like George Bush and Dick Cheney. (Clemens has said everything about Pettitte other than "You complete me.") The question remains however whether the two can finally push the Astros over the top in the National League or come October, will Houston fans be suffering from one Texas-sized Colt .45 hangover?

The Astros are one of those teams that typically possess so many talented players that you begin to forget its relative lack of success. During the Bagwell-Biggio era, the team has been a Ghost Dog in the playoffs, finishing first in the NL Central four times since 1997, but then going gently into the night. Great Astro World Series Moments remains, sadly, an unwritten and unreleased book, standing on a phantom bookshelf somewhere next to Vin Diesel: The Oscar Years. Last year was particularly frustrating, as Houston finished a game behind the revitalized Cubs. The team also fell seven games short of its Pythagorean projection. When that happens, I tend to look at the defense and the bullpen as culprits, but with the Astros, they weren?t large problems. So I guess the last resort is to blame the manager.

So will Clemens-Pettitte be more flash or gas? There are reasons for concern. The first one lies, of course, in Roger Dodger?s age. Everyone loves to throw out the Nolan Ryan comparison, so let?s look at Nolan in his age 40 season with the Astros, the same season Clemens just completed with that team in the Bronx you may have heard of. (Thanks to Baseball Reference.)

Ryan

YR  AGE  W  L  G GS CG GF SHO   IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO ERA  ERA+
87  40   8 16 34 34  0  0   0 211.7 154  75  65  14  87 270 2.76 142

Rocket

YR  AGE  W  L  G GS CG GF SHO   IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO ERA  ERA+
03  40  17  9 33 33  0  1   1 211.7 199  99  92  24  58 190 3.91 112

Hey. How about that? They both pitched exactly the same number of innings. That?s one of those things that makes baseball so irresistible, the random symmetry. It makes you think sometimes there is some deep spiritual tapestry tying the history of the game together. Or maybe that?s just another Michelob Ultra speaking. Anyway. Granted, Nolan was pitching in that late, lamented four-car garage known as the Astrodome, while Roger was toiling in obscurity in some burg near Bridgeport, Conn. But ERA+ accounts for that. It?s also clear to see that Ryan, still on the road to Freakville in terms of aging gracefully, was dominant in a way that Clemens was not.

But even what was more interesting was what happened next. Ryan, at age 41, sagged to an ERA+ of 94, an almost 50 point decline. (He still struck out 228 in 220 innings.) He would bounce back in 1989, but that drop was sudden, severe and real.

But statistically meaningful? You tell me. Seriously. You?re smarter than I am. This is the part where I must confess and disclose that in terms of the art of utilizing advanced metrics to predict the performance of certain players, I am fairly at a loss. I love baseball and respect the work that so many here to increase the understanding of the game, but when it comes to doing that work myself, I?m Bugs Bunny at an upscale dinner party and I?m not trying to pretend otherwise. I mean, I haven?t even done my taxes yet. Let?s give props, in fact, right now to my old friend Anthony Giacalone, who has helped me slog through much of this with the patience of Annie Sullivan.

In fact, Anthony helped me create some comps for Clemens as he enters his 41^st year. Using numbers from Lee Sinins? Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, let?s first look at the top single seasons, wins-wise, using Neutral Wins.

Obviously, this isn?t just a list of pitchers who are 41 years old, but all pitchers over the age of 40. Now here is the same list using Run Support Neutral Wins

Many, if not all, of the same characters. What jumps out at you? Only Ryan still threw some lightning; the rest having already secured their membership card in the Golden Crafty Veterans Club (You get discounts at Sizzler.) Anthony, by the way, tells me that the median number in the list from 1-100 is 13 natural wins.

It might be better to look at some more of Clemens? hard throwing, aged contemporaries: Tom Seaver, Bert Blyleven, Steve Carlton and Goose Gossage. In 1985, the 40-year-old Seaver had his last good season, going 16-11 with a 3.17 ERA and an ERA+ 136 while a member of the Chicago White Sox. (Does anyone except Anthony recall Seaver as a pale hoser? Did they still have the Shogun Warrior uniforms then?). The next year, Seaver clunked to 7-13, with an ERA of 4.03 and an ERA+ of 105. Rik Aalbert, actually, didn?t pitch when he was 40, missing the entire 1991 season. But he was pretty toasty already, having racked up an ERA+ of 73 in ?90 for the Angels. He came back to pitch at 41, and the results were similar.

Lefty Carlton was just beginning his Mickey Rourke phase at age 41, popping up in unexpected and random places for the remainder of his career. His age 40 season was his last full one with the Phillies, and he racked up an ERA+ of 111 in limited duty (92 IP). At age 41, he moved on to San Francisco and then the White Sox, posting an ERA+ of 78. The Goose? He pitched a brief campaign with the A?s at age 40, hurling just 38 innings and posting an ERA of 2.84 and ERA+ of 132. The following year at age 41, it was again a different story, as he struggled to a 4.53 ERA and ERA+ of 92 in, again, limited duty. (I love that phrase; it?s like he pitched for the National Guard.) He would bounce back a bit in his last season, with Seattle, in 1994.

I know, this is all anecdotal stuff, more informational than telling. But what it suggests is that it isn?t uncommon for great power pitchers to tumble off a cliff at age 41. Will that happen to the Rocket? Well, obviously, we don?t know. I think you have to look at the human side of the equation too ? specifically the deal he has struck with the Astros. I?m not sure all of the parameters of his arrangement regarding days off and traveling with the team have been fully disclosed, but I think there is some potential for it to be disrupting. As an Indians fan, I remember Jack Morris running off to his Montana ranch between starts in ?94, even as the team was beginning to win. He became basically alienated from his teammates and eventually the Indians just said: Don?t come back.

Since Clemens lives in Texas, the potential is there, probably, for things to be less of an issue. Still, for a man so renowned for his competitiveness and for his fierce routine, I wonder if trying to keep a foot each in the major leagues and in retirement is really going to work. We?ve all learned time and again not to count Clemens out, but I think the factors of age, his arrangement, the ballpark in Houston, and perhaps nagging injuries will reduce his effectiveness. That median benchmark on the list of pitchers over 40 is as good a prediction as any: Let?s put Clemens down for 13 wins. I also believe if Clemens gets off to atrocious start, he could pull a Michael Jack, have a tearful presser, and call it a day.

Pettite, meanwhile, is no longer pitching half his games at lefty-friendly Yankee. He?s tossing in a handball court. Much has been made about how New York could go into the season without a lefty starter (hence the reanimation of Donovan Osborne?s corpse; I hope Joe Torre didn?t use all of his Satanic Green Stamps for that one), but less has been said whether the Astros should even want a lefty with that faux Roman aqueduct mess in left. Pettitte, a groundballer who typically doesn?t allow tons of big flys, allowed only six home runs at Yankee last season, while still giving up 15 on the road. All pitchers make mistakes and the Juice Box will be less forgiving of Pettitte?s. I know that the Astros came forward with the bucks and Andy got to "go home" et al, but it amazes me year after year that players don?t seem to consider park effects when they sign big free agent deals.

As for how else going from the Yankees to the Astros will affect Roger n? Andy, I?ll refer you to the excellent piece authored by Chris Dial on how the players behind the hurlers will impact their performance in 2004.

So, what?s the rub? Will the Astros compete? Sure. Fortunately for Houstonians (I met my first ever the other evening; he was complaining about the lack of zoning laws, something I always considered to be sort of an urban legend), the ?Stros arent, despite the press, counting on the Glimmer Twins to carry their staff, but to simply supplement the rotation behind Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller. The performance and health of those two is the key to Houston?s playoff hopes. There?s already been one effect: The rehabbing Carlos Hernandez has been shipped down to New Orleans. The Astros don?t have to force him to get healthy at the major league level. Houston starters, in fact, pitched the fewest innings per start of any group in the National League, so any two pitchers who can show up, take their turn, and keep the team in the game will be welcome. More than that, the presence of Clemens and Pettitte isn?t driving any wunderkinds to the bullpen or AAA. Hernandez is hurt; Kirk Saarloos and Brandon Duckworth, acquired from Philadelphia in the Wagner deal, are still more dreams than dealers. Tim Redding should make the rotation anyway. Depth, as some recently convicted insider trader might have said, is a good thing.

Let?s take a quick look at the roster.

C Brad Ausmus

Now in his eighth smash year of driving baseball analysts to distraction, Ausmus couldn?t even manage to hit like he was swinging a banjo last year (Anyone know the derivation of that term?), batting a lowly .229 with a 594 OPS. He got a new two-year deal anyway. He?s like Ben Affleck or a defense contractor, continually being rewarded for nonperformance through either habit or inertia. I know, he?s "great defensively."

By the way, I would be grateful if anyone could point me to a study about the impact great defensive catchers have on the game. I know that the "Ozzie Smith saves 100 runs a year" kinds of statements have been widely discredited, but what about the great "catch and throw guys?" My instincts tell that they probably have less of an effect on the outcome of the game than any other position compared to the league average. But then, maybe I?m wrong. That happens. A lot.

1B Enos Cabell

If Enos Cabell ran a hospital, I?d invest in a mortuary. If he ran a meat market, I?d be a vegan. If . ..

Thus ends our Bill James Tribute Moment. Thanks for everything, Bill! Actually, isn?t Enos Cabell on John Kerry?s Short List?

1B Jeff Bagwell

Bagwell, it seems, has gone from underappreciated to overhyped (remember when everyone said he would hit 50 at Crooked Energy Company Field) back to underappreciated. Yes, the decline is there and it?s for all to see. The shoulder, etc.

Still, the guy swatted 39 homers, stole 11 bases and drew almost 90 walks. I?m willing to see last season as an aberration in a brilliant career rather than necessarily an invitation to mourn the passing of a superstar. (Gotta be concerned about those double plays however.)

2B Jeff Kent

Hey, it?s Mr. Friendly! You know, I was living in Cleveland when Kent was traded to the Tribe in 1996 in the Carlos Baerga deal (that that was eight years ago makes me want to cry) and have never blamed John Hart for turning around and dealing Kent to San Francisco for Matt Williams. Kent looked simply like someone who couldn?t play, who was a tweener between second and third, and who had some pop, but not enough to make your pulse pound. Then in SF? ka-boom! Kent fell off quite a bit last season, but had a hurt wrist, presumably from a non-truck washing injury. He?s getting slower afoot, but is playing for a new contract this year. He?ll hit. (And he had better, as I just drafted him for fantasy team.)

SS Adam Everett

Finally got his big chance when Julio Lugo was deported to Tampa. When the Astros offense is promoted, it?s largely because they have a big bat at second base, but this is a starting eight with three rather large donuts in the offense in catcher, short and center field (sorry, hustle fans). Since Everett, by all accounts, actually can pick it, his inclusion in the attack is forgivable. He?s a throwback to the no-hit, bunt ?em over era of shortstops that makes me a bit nostalgic. The Astros didn?t have a big problem scoring runs last year, but what this does is put more pressure on the other five big-time hitters to produce. An injury ? or some regression from Morgan Ensberg or Richard Hildago ? and they team could potentially reach sort of a negative Tipping Point in terms of run production.

3B Morgan Ensberg

It?s all good. Playing through Jimy Williams? odd Blum Obsession (based on the book by Robert Ludlum), Morgan persevered and let the talent shine through. Back to the Indians for a moment. Last spring, I told anyone who would listen that Mark Shapiro should try and deal for Ensberg, because it appeared he had accidentally parked in Williams? parking space or made out with his daughter at a spring training function or something. Unfortunately, no one listens to me, including my wife, the Indians, the Astros, and the Democratic Party, in that order.

Let?s talk about Geoff Blum for a moment, even though he is no longer in residence here. Like that old Chris Rock joke about OJ Simpson, I don?t condone what Williams did, but I understand. Have you ever noticed that when you manage a simulation baseball team, you have your own quirks and blind spots? I have them in spades, even against my better judgment. One thing I love is infielders who can hit left-handed. I can?t really explain it. But every Jack Brohamer and Tim Flannery will always find a home with me. Right-handed hitters are so boring. Blum is a switch-hitter, which gets me even more excited. I?m one of those tinkering managers, always looking to platoon or shift people into different positions, etc. I?m quite sure I would be a much criticized disaster on the major league level. I am a child of 70s baseball and speed is my other preoccupation. Combined, my quirks are deadly. When I used to manage my late, great Statis Pro teams in the late 70s and early 80s, my God, give me a switch-hitting infielder, a contact hitter who could run and steal bases and hit and run and I?d be in heaven. Walks? We didn?t need no stinking walks. That was marginally okay if I got my hands on Garry Templeton. Not so great if I fixated on Rodney Scott.

LF Lance Berkman

Protected him on my fantasy team at the expense of Magglio Ordonez (See, switch-hitting bias, supra, even though Berkman can?t really switch hit.) He just turned 28 and I?m hoping for a return to 40 homer heaven. If he experiences a similar power failure this season, feel free to blame me. I am indeed insane enough to believe that my ownership of certain fantasy baseball players can negatively impact their performance. I also believe I control the weather.

CF Craig Biggio

The first baseball player to actually become his own honorary statute in center field. Can?t we just give him a TAG watch or a motorcycle and call it a day? By all accounts, he deserves his ring, and I?d love to see him get it, but the irony is that he may well keep them from getting it. Baseball hates irony, so Biggio will be patrolling the Land of That Peculiar Flagpole one more time at age 39. Craig Biggio is older than I am, and considering the way I feel in the morning, I don?t know how he bends over to tie his shoes, much less cover the gaps.

RF Richard Hidalgo

Fresh from his inspiring gallop across the Sahara Desert. (Btw, according to this month?s Outside magazine, this race, nor this horse, never existed. So the movie is not based on a true story. It?s truly just a story.) His contract has made him untradable and kept Jason Lane forlorn. But that?s not really my problem and I don?t want to meddle. The bottom line is that Hidalgo finally performed last year up to specs, with his bat and his arm. As noted above, this offense needs him, his contract and Drayton?s McLane?s wish to cover Pettitte?s contract notwithstanding. Still could end up with someone like the Dodgers before the spring ends.

Bench

As noted before, I like Jose Vizcaino for all the wrong reasons. It?s a forbidden love and I?m sure our parents are not pleased. But he had better not play very much. A clear sign that the season is in jeopardy is if, in May, Jimy Williams or someone with the team is referring to Vizcaino as our "unsung hero" or that he "stabilized the infield" or some such nonsense. It?s nice that someone has given John Valentin something to do, but maybe it just should have been as a valet parker. Former No. 1 pick Chris Burke could show up at some point during the year just to warn Jeff Kent to get out of town after the season. Lane should stick too and may be a starter if Hidalgo is dealt. Orlando Palmeiro is here as well and likely will be stealing at bats from people who can hit. This is not a team set up to utilize its bench often.

Starting Rotation

We dwelt on this long enough, but it says here that Oswalt should have a big year, and that Pettitte and Clemens will be slightly above league average as starters. So it?s up to you, Wade Miller and Tim Redding, to take great leaps forward if you want to have any shot at beating the Cubs at their own game.

Bullpen

The expectation is that Octavio Dotel is another Mariano Rivera, someone who will slide seamlessly into the closer role after throwing lights out set-up relief for years. And that probably will come to pass. I don?t give much stock in the "closer mentality" but Dotel?s conversion rate has never been stellar as Billy Wagner?s caddy. It will be worth watching to see if can bring down the hammer. (I will be eagerly watching Arthur Rhodes in Oakland for the same reason.) If it were me, I?d try to stretch Dotel out a bit, bringing him into the eighth and so on, because he?s thrown 100 innings in relief twice in his career. But I guess the thought was that he wore down a bit last season. Brad Lidge?s emergence last year made possible sending Wagner to Philadelphia, but you still have to wonder if the bullpen will hold with everyone having to move up a slot. Dan Miceli, famed clubhouse poisoner, was tremendous last season as well and must be shocked to find himself wearing the same uniform two years in a row after spending last season with four teams. Don?t expect him to repeat his success ? especially as his innings grow in importance. Ricky Stone, on the other hand, has been solid each of the past two seasons. I?m not sold on either Brandon Duckworth or Jeriome Robertson. About Robertson, let?s give Houston, which I think is pretty smart organization, credit for knowing what it had here. Some other GMs would have simply said "He won 15 games last season; he?s in the rotation." But the Astros? braintrust knew Robertson had gotten lucky with run support. In fact, he could end up in New Orleans if Mike Gallo beats him out of out a job. Everyone?s fave Wheel of Fortune answer, Kirk Saarloos, could also be in the bullpen mix and Taylor Buchholz and Brandon Backe could help during the season at some point. There?s also Carlos Hernandez, who remains a question mark. The Astros have enough competent bodies in the pen to fashion some sort of steady unit, but it?s not going to match the intimidating and effective one-two volcanic punch that Dotel and Wagner brought for years.

The bottom line

Houston could win ? win it all, in fact. But that?s always been true. The core young stars (Berkman, Ensberg, Oswalt, Miller, Dotel) need to have a huge years for the dream to be realized and the veterans have to hold on before their window shuts completely. Like last season, I foresee a horse race across the deserts of August and September against the Cubs (but not the Cards), with the Astros again falling short. (I do, however, like them for the Wild Card.) They won?t make the World Series in 2004 either. Unlike Hidalgo, this prediction, sadly, is based on a true story.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Berkman#           lf  .304  .422  .557  158  578  110  176  42   4  32  110  113  114   6   5 
Lane               rf  .296  .367  .541  127  436   73  129  33   1  24   83   45   76   6   3 
Bagwell            1b  .269  .377  .524  158  584   96  157  40   2  35  111   95  122   8   4 
Kent               2b  .290  .352  .547  142  556   83  161  52   2  29  105   49   90   5   3 
Hidalgo            rf  .291  .370  .517  138  499   78  145  36   4  23   85   58  101   7   6 
Ensberg            3b  .287  .374  .486  121  397   67  114  18   2  19   66   52   69   7   3 
Alfaro             3b  .288  .351  .437  125  458   62  132  28   2  12   61   40   78   3   5 
Huffman            1b  .301  .364  .403  130  491   62  148  28   2   6   55   43   70   5   4 
Hiatt              1b  .251  .316  .487  117  419   62  105  31   1  22   73   36  107   4   2 
Coolbaugh          3b  .231  .312  .444   98  342   47   79  20   1  17   55   37  105   3   2 
Matranga           2b  .264  .330  .401   99  337   50   89  21   2   7   40   30   81   4   3 
Biggio             cf  .244  .330  .386  147  581   86  142  42   2  12   68   47  116   8   4 
Burke              2b  .281  .347  .362  134  531   83  149  19   6   4   47   49   58  17  11 
Valentin           ss  .236  .338  .362   93  174   16   41  13   0   3   19   19   30   0   0 
Buck               c   .266  .311  .403   96  365   44   97  22   2   8   44   21   79   1   1 
Everett            ss  .257  .319  .366  142  475   72  122  23   4   7   47   39   74  11   3 
Vizcaino#          ss  .270  .316  .378  108  296   32   80  16   2   4   31   17   31   1   4 
Palmeiro*          lf  .261  .335  .342  125  284   31   74  15   1   2   26   30   27   4   4 
Bruntlett          ss  .263  .338  .328  126  479   77  126  20   1   3   43   50   73  13   8 
Taveras            cf  .241  .338  .289  106  353   62   85   7   2   2   26   39   58  43  10 
Whiteman           ss  .252  .305  .357  128  493   59  124  17   1  11   55   33   96   3   7 
Chavez             c   .251  .289  .364  108  371   41   93  22   1   6   40   17   49   1   2 
Ausmus             c   .227  .298  .319  135  436   43   99  21   2   5   39   40   66   3   3 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Dotel                2.90   7   3  74   1    93.0   66   30   7   34  119 
Oswalt               3.08  16   6  30  28   184.0  155   63  16   42  179 
Pettitte*            3.21  17   8  30  30   196.0  172   70  14   48  165 
Saarloos             3.51  10   6  38  21   141.0  128   55  11   38  109 
Gallo*               3.72   5   3  53   1    75.0   68   31   7   24   62 
Lidge                3.74   6   4  51  10   101.0   81   42   8   48  107 
Bullinger            3.76   4   2  55   0    67.0   67   28   6   15   38 
Clemens              3.83  14   9  32  32   207.0  182   88  21   76  193 
Miller               3.84  14  10  31  31   185.0  161   79  19   69  173 
Bland*               4.11   2   2  31   0    35.0   30   16   3   17   31 
Duckworth            4.22  10   8  30  27   162.0  148   76  20   61  143 
Redding              4.25  11  10  32  29   161.0  147   76  19   62  138 
Ramirez              4.37   4   3  46   0    68.0   59   33   6   36   62 
Saladin              4.44   4   4  55   0    73.0   69   36   5   35   47 
Hernandez*           4.64   7   7  25  24   130.0  112   67  15   73  128 
Robertson*           4.70  10  11  38  26   161.0  165   84  22   55  101 
Buchholz             4.70   7   8  26  25   155.0  161   81  24   47   99 
Stone                4.71   4   4  66   3    84.0   84   44  11   33   59 
Fiore                4.72   5   6  41   8   103.0  107   54  10   41   59 
Backe                4.81   4   4  37   8    88.0   87   47  10   40   58 
Coughenour           4.82   2   3  33   2    56.0   54   30   4   32   34 
Fernandez            4.88   8  10  38  27   179.0  198   97  24   55   74 
Miceli               4.89   3   3  53   0    57.0   55   31  11   21   51 
Qualls               4.98   6   8  28  28   170.0  172   94  20   87  118 
Sessions             5.02   5   5  33  20   131.0  141   73  21   43   72 
Lugo                 5.03   3   4  36  13   102.0   96   57  14   52   85 
Veres                5.14   3   5  61   0    63.0   60   36  10   32   57 
Enochs               5.55   6   9  32  20   128.0  130   79  16   76   80