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— BTF's Preseason Previews

Monday, April 14, 2003

Anaheim Angels

Overview

How happy are Anaheim Angel fans? Well, take 42 years of ineptitude, bitter disappointments, heart-breaking tragedies, fan apathy, and front office mismanagement, then squeeze all that into a three-week package, and run it through the Opposite Machine. The red tsunami of joy that swept through Southern California has resulted in over 1.6 million season tickets sold as of this writing, virtually guaranteeing the Angels their highest attendance figures since at least the mid-80s.

That the Angels won their first World Series with no apparent offensive superstar and no dominant pitching ace contributed to their popularity. They came across as a gritty band of no-name, blue-collar tough guys who had T-E-A-M tattooed on their foreheads. Hell, they ran little Davey Eckstein out there against Yankee Mystique [tm], Minnesota’s Team of Destiny, and the Great Barry - and won! Who’s not going to love that?

For an encore, General Manager Bill Stoneman is clearly hoping for a repeat season, making no major player moves over the winter. More important was how the front office dealt with player contracts. Disney approved a $20 million increase in the team budget, but unlike the Bush Administration, the Angels smartly did not send out free money to celebrate their big season. Players either got renewed, or were awarded one-year contracts. While the players weren’t particularly happy about it, Stoneman should be credited with not going overboard in rewarding players with long-term deals that would have locked the Angels up financially for the next few seasons. A bushel of players (Jarrod Washburn, Troy Glaus, Ramon Ortiz, John Lackey) are going to get very expensive soon and a couple (Kevin Appier, Aaron Sele) are already old and expensive. Financial flexibility will be important in the near future.

For now, Angels will go into this season playing the same hand as last season, and hope the same cards get dealt again.

Coaches

Veteran leadership begins with coaching, not with old, expensive journeymen players. The unflappable Mike Scioscia earned his Manager of the Year award by turning around a team that at one point was languishing at 6-14. Players invariably take their cues from strong managers, and Scioscia’s steadying influence was apparent, especially towards the end of the season, when the Angels seemed to be the only people who weren’t stunned that they were winning games nobody thought they should.

Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black stablized a bullpen that struggled early on in the season, and didn’t allow any of their starters to blow themselves out by leaving them in too long. Their handling of young John Lackey, in particular, was admirable in that Lackey averaged just 98.5 pitches in his 18 starts, and had just two games over 110 pitches.

I can’t believe I’m going to defend Mickey Hatcher at the expense of my favorite player of all time. Hitting coach Hatcher takes a lot of heat from statheads with his "be really, really aggressive" approach to hitting. However, one thing he preaches that is apparently working is for his hitters to simply simplify their swings. After years of working with the meticulous and scientific Rod Carew, having someone like Hatcher who tries to be as hands-off as possible must have been a breath of fresh air. I won’t say that that was the reason why the Angel offense woke up, but given the Angels’ traditional organizational abhorrence of the walk, having a hitting coach who seems to be able to coax the most possible offense out of very little selectivity isn’t the worse thing to have.

Starting Rotation

R

HR

BB

SO

WHIP

ERA

2002

644

169

509

999

1.280

3.69

2001

730

168

525

947

1.380

4.20

2000

869

228

662

846

1.520

5.00

Over the previous two seasons, the rotation dumped Ken Hill, Tim Belcher, Ken Bottenfield, Patt Rapp - and got better. Imagine that. The Angels managed the second best ERA in the league with no dominant starters by collecting four guys who could keep their team in the game for at least six innings every fifth day, allowing an excellent bullpen to stay rested and sharp.

A 12-game winning streak will get you noticed, and everybody noticed Jarrod Washburn’s development into a solid front-line pitcher last season. If he stays healthy, Washburn can probably keep pitching like this for another five years. Washburn operates up in the zone, relying almost completely on a "fastball" that he varies in speed between 84 and 92 mph. He is as toughest-minded as any pitcher in the league - like Tom Glavine, Washburn never gives in to hitters, challenging them to hit his pitch every time up. The most extreme fly ball pitcher in baseball (.6 GB/FB!), Washburn should cut a check to Darin Erstad after every good outing.

Ramon Ortiz gave up a league-leading 40 homers - but it’s not as bad as it looks. Ortiz stopped trying to get cute with his slider and started challenging batters with his fastball, and as a result gave up fewer hits and walks, struck out more batters - and 32 of the 40 homers were solo shots. Obviously, Ortiz needs to stay down in the zone to be successful. Washburn is as good as he’s going to get. Ortiz has better stuff than Washburn, and, eventually, he could surpass his rotation partner as the best starter on the staff.

Kevin Appier is one of the most "mechanical" pitchers I’ve ever seen in that, when he has command of his mechanics, he can keep batters off balance all day with a collection of curves, sliders and (on good days) a splitter. However, if he’s off just a little, kids in the bleachers get showered with souvenirs. While he’s not what he once was, you have to admire how he’s reinvented himself. He’s essentially a 6-inning starter now, entering an expensive decline now - $23 million over the next two seasons - which is going to be a big problem starting in 2003. Appier is staring at the edge of the cliff.

I have a non-sexual love crush on John Lackey. Can you blame me? After all, he did win Game 7 of the World Series, capping off a rookie season where he had 11 quality starts in 18 tries. At just 24, his fastball hums along around 92-94 mph with good downward movement, and he throws a hard sinker that coaxes double-play grounders. He’s not afraid to work up in the zone, and he’ll throw inside to anyone. Like all young pitchers, he’ll have his rough spots, but barring injury, Lackey could make Anaheim fans very happy for the next few years.

Aaron Sele had a really good season in 1993. Since then, he’s been overrated and, now, hugely overpaid to the tune of $16.5 million for the next two seasons. Non-Yankee teams can’t afford to be throwing that sort of money at guys who were clearly questionable. Sele’s recovering from shoulder surgery, and will start the season on the DL. There’s little reason to expect him to be any healthier or more effective this year than he was last year, so the Angels are essentially bleeding money when Mickey Calloway, who makes the league minimum, is better than Sele right now, and will start the season as the fifth man in the rotation. This spring, he’s reportedly added a splitter to his repertoire, and has been dominant during spring training, giving him about a bajillion looks to throw at batters. Calloway’s fastball explodes at the plate with all the power of a falling leaf, but despite his lack of stuff, he was very good in Durham in 2001, and dominated Salt Lake in 2002 with a wacky assortment of breaking pitches in good locations. I’m optimistic.

Bullpen

The heart of the team. GM Stoneman and Assistant GM Ken Forsch have done a superb job of building an inexpensive collection of middle-relief pitchers who keep the ball down, throw with movement, and don't walk people. What's really scary/wonderful is that the pen comes into 2003 deeper and stronger than the year before.

The reason for such optimism is, of course, that Francisco Rodriguez is going to be around all season. Ya think moving him to the bullpen worked? The rookie finished the season with the big club, and struck out 13 out of the 22 batters he faced, including eight in a row. Then, of course, he lit up the post-season, striking out 28 in just 18.2 innings - earning the nickname "K-Rod" - and was one of the key figures in Anaheim’s October magic. For 2003, more of the same. Rodriguez has very good command of an electric fastball and a devastating slider which he’ll throw on any count. Comparisons to Mariano Rivera are quite popular, but because of his superior strikeout rates, he’s closer to Octavio Dotel. Because of his background as a minor league starter, manager Mike Scioscia will likely allow Rodriguez to go two innings an outing in close games, maximizing Rodriguez’s usage. Regardless of how he’s used, if he stays healthy, he’s going to be awesome.

It seems that the down years of 1999 and 200 were just a blip on the radar. Troy Percival is as nigh-unhittable as he's ever been, and his K rate over the last two seasons is back up over 10 per 9 innings again. With the arrival of Rodriguez, Percival's run as the Anaheim closer is apparently scheduled to end after 2004, when his contract runs out. Until then, there's no reason to believe he'll be anything other than excellent.

Brendan Donnelly and Ben Weber will both be back, and will both be effective again in high-leverage middle-inning roles. Donnelly was absolutely lights out after being brought up mid-season, mixing a lively fastball in with a tough sinker. Because of his "scab" status with the MLBPA, he never really got a shot at the big leagues, but people tend to overlook those blemishes when you strand 27 of 32 inherited runners out of the pen. Ben Weber tired toward the end of the post-season, but he was arguably the most important man in the Angel pen in 2002, holding together a group that, early on, that got slapped around like Michael Moore at an NRA convention. Throwing hard sinkers with an angry herky-jerk delivery, Weber induces more groundballs than anybody on the team. Given the excellent defense behind him, you can expect another solid 70 to 80 innings from him this season.

Scott Schoeneweis will be the designated LOOGY out of the bullpen this season. After three infuriating seasons of getting pounded so hard that France surrendered on his behalf, Schoeneweis lost his rotation slot to John Lackey. While his numbers weren’t bad (3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), he did surrender five homers in just 27.2 innings out of the pen. He still believes himself a starter, so regardless of how well he does this season, it’ll probably be Schoeneweis’ last in Anaheim, which is a good thing for the Angels.

When the last man in your bullpen had a WHIP of 1.06 in 49 relief innings, you know you’ve got a deep pen. Scot Shields parlayed a mid-season call-up into a solid bullpen slot by doing some excellent work in the mop-up roll. Though he’s had moderate success at the minor league level, it’s unrealistic to expect Shields to repeat the success he had in 2002; he neither the stuff nor the location to be anything special. Still, Shields is capable enough to handle one to three low leverage innings every few days.

Outfield

Some centerfielders - like Jim Edmonds, for instance - make up for a lack of great dead-run speed by developing an excellent first step on fly balls. In contrast, Darin Erstad has what I call a great last step: Erstad’s tremendous closing speed allows him to make attempts at balls other outfielders would have to take on a hop. Residual pain from a broken bone in his right hand is a concern, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting his swing - at least, not yet. If he stays healthy, expect a moderate improvement in his offense over the past two seasons, but unlike June, he won’t be bustin’ out all over (long live the musical). For more on Erstad, you can refer to a previous article devoted to his career path.

If it weren’t for April, Tim Salmon would be a Hall-of-Famer. As it is, he’s never even made an All-Star team. The Aprils of Salmon:

1993

.254/.392/.559 in 59 AB

1994

.232/.315/.389 in 95 AB

1995

.270/.421/.522 in 115 AB

1996

.281/.361/.438 in 96 AB

1997

.244/.337/.389 in 90 AB

1998

.279/.429/.639 in 61 AB before injury

1999

.349/.452/.674 in 86 AB before injury

2000

.217/.336/.424 in 92 AB

2001

.233/.356/.407 in 86 AB

2002

.190/.331/.319 in 82 AB

2003

.190/.330/.318 in 82 AB

Combined stats for Aprils: .246/.356/.451

Combined rest of career: .304/.432/.541

Salmon bounced back from an injury-shortened 1999 to have a great 2000, then bounced back from an ugly 2001 with a solid 2002 that helped drive the Angels to their best season ever. As a long-time fan, seeing a jubilant Salmon take his victory lap with the World Series trophy was about as good as it gets. The Big Fish is 34 now and, April not withstanding, the man can still hit. However, Salmon has been limited by various injuries to fewer than 140 games in four of the last five seasons, and his age is starting to show in the outfield. As he’s gotten older, his starts have become more and more sluggish. He’s getting closer to the point where he’s not going to be able to recover from a bad start. I think he’s got one good year left before the tank hits empty. For 2003, he can beat the ZiPS projection.

Who needs to draw a walk to first when you can cruise into second? When Garret Anderson gets in front of a pitch, he hits it hard. His increasing power numbers has transformed him from a no-patience slap hitter with little offensive value into a no-patience, honest-to-goodness contributor:

Year

Age

SLG

*lgSLG

SLG+

1996

24

.405

.441

-36

1997

25

.409

.429

-20

1998

26

.455

.434

21

1999

27

.469

.440

29

2000

28

.519

.448

71

2001

29

.478

.442

36

2002

30

.539

.419

120

He won’t hit 56 doubles again, but ZiPS expects him to slug over .500, and so do I. Sure, you’d like to see him draw some - ANY- walks, but he is what he is. Along with the power gain came a platoon split with almost all the growth coming against righties. I expect that gap to widen, then close, as his power begins to fade with age. A pretty good defensive outfielder, though he’ll never get credit for it. For 2003, more of the same.

Infield

Adam Kennedy has a swing that, ironically, is almost exactly like Jim Edmonds’ - the man he was traded for - a big looping swing that, in 2002, resulted in a career season. Hitters generally improve for two basic reasons: (1) they become more mature physically, and (2) they develop a more disciplined approach at the plate. Kennedy’s career year was almost totally due to Reason #1, boosted by manager Mike Scioscia benching him against most lefties.

#P per PA

W per100 PA

2002

3.79

2.72

2001

3.77

4.37

2000

3.48

5.08

1999

3.38

3.73

Strangely, while his #P/PA has gone up, his walk rate has plunged badly, so even though he hit .312, his OPS still couldn’t crack .800 because he refuses to take a walk. At this point in his career, Kennedy looks like he’s developing into the flyball version of Mark Grudzielanek, and that’s not a good thing for the Angels. What is a good thing is his defense - in 2002, Kennedy was a big, fat 38 defensive runs above replacement at second base, contributing to the Angels’ overall excellent team defense. Among second basemen, nobody - but nobody - goes to his right as well as Kennedy.

I think Scott Spiezio’s improvement is real, based on a 2002 season where he nearly doubled his walk rate. I was a little hesitant, because it wasn’t as if Spiezio was looking at more pitches than before (3.5 pitches per AB, as opposed to 3.4 in 2001), but he was consistently patient all season, an indication that he was mindful of his new approach and not just on some walking spree. Spiezio is the best defensive first baseman in baseball, which is what you’d expect when you stick an average second baseman at first base. ZiPS underestimates Spiezio’s playing time; in 2003 he’ll put up the best raw totals of his career, but it shouldn’t be good enough to earn a long-term contract with Casey Kotchman waiting in the wings. Spiezio’s World Series Game 6 homer is the greatest moment in Angel history.

Troy Glaus sure can hit in October; now, if he can just learn to hit in June and July, he’ll be just fine. It’s hard to be the next Mike Schmidt when you hit like Kevin Young for two months out of every season, but that’s what’s happened every year for the last four seasons:

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

June/July 2002

.198

.339

.319

.658

June/July 2001

.206

.341

.443

.784

June/July 2000

.222

.330

.508

.838

June/July 1999

.237

.318

.462

.780

For players like Glaus and Salmon, who have a pattern of struggling at certain points in the season, I’ve often wondered if there’s a psychosomatic drag on their performance when the calendar turns. "Dang it, its summer. I never hit in the summer!" - and then he doesn’t. When he’s patient, Glaus is a terrifying hitter in much the way Darryl Strawberry was in his prime: both are possessors of a swing that is both beautiful in its smoothness and startling in its rapidity and power. He’s going into to his age 26 season, so if he doesn’t crush the ZiPS projection, he’ll still be one of the best third sackers in the league, but he just won’t be as good as we all thought he’d be. The one caveat going into 2003 will be a wrist injury that has bothered him all spring. If it doesn’t heal right, it would be a deathblow to the Angels’ playoff chances.

Part Pokémón, part Rally Monkey, all ballplayer. David Eckstein isn’t big enough to generate much power, so fights off pitches and doesn’t swing at balls outside his zone. He doesn’t have the range for shortstop, but gets by on good positioning and turns a mean double-play. He doesn’t have the arm for shortstop, either, but incorporates a crow hop and a gigantic wind-up that helps him get behind throws which invariably nips runners by half a step. Like Forrest Gump, Eckstein runs everywhere, and like Chris Sabo, he doesn’t stop until either he scores or he’s out. Based on his minor league performance, I think Eckstein can add on two base-on-balls per month, if batting coach Mickey Hatcher hasn’t shooed that idea away.

The non-walking duo of Brad Fullmer and Shawn Wooten proved a quantum leap at the DH position:

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

Angels 2001 DHs

.217

.287

.314

.601

Fullmer/Wooten DH

.272

.335

.463

.798

Not quite the Mother of All Platoons, but the Muscle Twins were mainly responsible for the largest offensive increase at any position, and one of the major reasons why the Angel offense jumped from 691 to 851 runs from 2001 to 2002 despite a league-wide drop in offense. Fullmer’s $5M option wasn’t picked up, but he resigned for a one-year, $1M contract, while Wooten’s contract was, much to his chagrin, renewed. The pair should continue to be fairly productive, especially Fullmer, whose rate stats (.289/.357/.531) were helped greatly by being protected against lefties.

I like to think Bengie Molina is just keeping the catcher’s spot warm until Jeff Mathis is ready. As well as Molina controls the running game, and as much as the Angel pitchers like the way he receives pitches, perhaps the biggest achievement of last season was the Angels winning while carrying Molina’s .596 OPS. He is also unquestionably the slowest human being I’ve ever seen - seasons change faster than he runs. Lest you think I exaggerate, consider this: on easy groundouts, most guys get thrown out by a couple of steps. It’s not unusual for Molina to get thrown out by a good 40 feet - running as hard as he can.

Bench

Eric Owens will replace Orlando Palmiero as the team’s fourth outfielder. Owens was a regular with the Padres and Marlins, if he gets significant playing time he could really hurt the Angels with his lack of offensive ability. He does bring a lot of speed, which may push Chone Figgins, last season’s Herb Washington, back to the minors. Benji Gil will spell Kennedy against lefties at second base. Benjie’s brother, Jose Molina, has slightly more power and less throwing arm, and he’ll be the back-up catcher. Julio Ramirez snags the last roster spot with his defense, but don’t expect him to hit much.

Looking Ahead…

The most important element in favor for the Angels in 2002 was health. Seven of the eight everyday players got in 140 games or more, and five of those guys got in over 150 games. Aaron Sele was the only starter to go on the DL, and that was as much blessing as curse. When an Angel did go down, they had guys who were able to step right in and produce: Lackey, Donnelly, Shields, Rodriguez and Figgins all made important contributions after being called up from the minors. When Tim Salmon went on the DL last August, Orlando Palmiero stepped in and hit nearly .400 (18-50) in his stead. Because there was no one player that the Angels counted on, they needed across-the-board contributions. In 2002, they got it.

When people are healthy, people generally play to their talent level. Everybody and their mothers are picking the Angels to drop off from their 99-win total of last season, and that’s fair. But for those fans looking for hope, I offer you this:

R

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

2002

851

0.282

0.341

0.433

0.773

2001

691

0.261

0.327

0.405

0.732

2000

864

0.280

0.352

0.472

0.825

The real fluke season wasn’t 2002, it was 2001 - the year before that, the Angels finished a respectable 7th in the league in runs scored. Mo Vaughn was hurt all of 2001, leaving behind the gapping hole at DH, while Salmon and Erstad fell off cliffs offensively. Last season, Kennedy aside, every single player hit around his career averages - Glaus and Erstad a little lower, Anderson a bit higher - but the offensive production was certainly within the bounds of most projections. While the 2003 version should come in lower than 2002’s .282 team batting average, this is an above-average offense. Only Anderson (31) and Salmon (34) are over 30, and with Glaus moving into his prime, the Angels should be able to maintain a competitive offense.

The real jump was in the starting rotation. Washburn and Ortiz finally broke through, and by replacing dead weight with Appier and Lackey, the Angels had the type of starting pitching that pushes teams towards the playoffs. A large element of the pitchers’ success was, of course, the team’s stellar defense. Anaheim posted the highest team range factor in baseball last season, and it wasn’t even close:

Rank

RF

1

Anaheim

.877

2

St. Louis

.868

3

Chicago AL

.867

Every regular except Salmon is an above average and some are way above average. Up the middle, the combination of Erstad, Kennedy and Eckstein combined for 52 defensive runs above replacement, best in the league by a country mile. The runner-up? Atlanta, a full 13 runs back. Overall, Anaheim’s 3.98 runs per game was the best mark in the American League.

The Angels also struck out a league low 807 times, 106 times fewer than any other team in the league and nearly 200 times fewer than the season before. Putting the ball in play is the first step towards getting a base hit, and several Angels, most notably Spiezio, noted that Mickey Hatcher had stressed the importance of putting bat to ball, at the expense of drawing walks or working the count:

Pitches per Plate Appearance

2002

2001

2000

1999

Anderson

3.06

3.37

3.29

3.32

Erstad

3.42

3.82

3.73

3.79

Eckstein

3.71

3.84

---

---

Glaus

3.97

4.06

4.19

4.03

Spiezio

3.49

3.43

3.67

3.54

Salmon

3.78

4.09

4.07

4.02

Kennedy

3.79

3.77

3.48

3.38

Fullmer

3.32

3.35

3.43

3.17

Molina

3.06

3.48

3.13

3.16

Every regular but Kennedy and Spiezio had their #P/PA drop, indicative of the Mickey Hatcher philosophy: putting bat to ball is the first step towards getting a hit. I’m pretty sure Hatcher’s not lurking around reading DIPS theory, but obviously it worked last season, as the Angels turned out more hits than the Beatles:

Team

AVG

BIP

BIP/PA

DP/BIP

Anaheim

0.282

1716

0.274

0.061

Seattle

0.275

1644

0.261

0.075

Boston

0.277

1635

0.260

0.085

Texas

0.269

1608

0.256

0.080

St. Louis

0.268

1607

0.259

0.077

Colorado

0.274

1607

0.263

0.083

Minnesota

0.272

1604

0.261

0.075

NY Yankees

0.275

1604

0.253

0.094

Arizona

0.267

1586

0.253

0.082

San Francisco

0.267

1585

0.254

0.086

Some of these numbers are freakishly out of line with the rest of the league. Anaheim led the major leagues batting average and putting balls in play. Honestly, I’m really not sure if there’s any predictive value in this data. Hatcher’s been the batting coach in Anaheim for three years now, and essentially the same group of guys struck out nearly 200 times more in 2001. What changed? I know that the team, early on, stressed putting the ball in play, but we don’t know if that same philosophy was in place in 2001. Can the Angels continue to avoid the Ks and drop hit after hit? Based on the #P/PA numbers, it’s reasonable to suggest that if an entire team is willing to make contact at any cost, they will cut down on strikeouts. Whether it continues to lead to a ton of runs or just a bunch of weak groundouts remains to be seen. I have faith in DIPS; Anaheim will hit this year.

One number I’ve neglected to bring up is the double play numbers; as you can see from the previous chart, Anaheim’s DP rate was the lowest by an easy margin, and another reason why Scioscia was the best manager in the league last season. Smart baserunning is, to a great degree, a reflection of the coaching staff. There aren’t any Luis Castillos on the Angels, but having an entire squad able to take extra bases and stay out of double plays is just another way for Scioscia to economize the offense.

There’s not a whole lot of bad news here - how bad a shape could you in if you just came off a 99-win season? Oakland and Texas have both improved within their division while Anaheim stayed put all winter, and Boston and Chicago/Minnesota are improved enough to take the Wild Card slot. Anaheim hit a league-high .290 BA with RISP - given the fluctuations in BARISP, that’s pretty unlikely to happen again.

The real key is health. The Angels enjoyed great health last season from the core of the team. This spring, Glaus has experienced wrist problems, Jarrod Washburn sprained his pitching shoulder, and Erstad and Salmon experienced soreness and irritation in their surgically repaired hand and knee, respectively. David Eckstein’s complained of back problems, and both Donnelly and Shields are being treated for shoulder soreness. And this is all before Opening Day.

Perhaps the team’s biggest weakness was also last year’s big selling point: there is no one superstar on the team. The Angels need for every player to make important contributions to be competitive, and that opens them up to being badly wounded if even one of their core players were to go down for an extended period of time. If Texas loses anyone other than Alex Rodriguez, well, they’ve still got Alex Rodriguez to carry them. If the Angels lose Glaus, Anderson, Salmon, Washburn or any of the other core players, they’re just screwed. There is no Alex Rodriguez to carry the Angels, no Randy Johnson to guarantee nine great innings if the bullpen’s overworked.

Most people think that not having to lean on a few stars is a good thing, but I disagree. Keith Woolner noted in a Baseball Prospectus article last year that there’s not much of a difference between a balanced offense and one that depends on star hitters. The Angels had a balanced offense that, last year, got contributions up and down a line-up where nearly everybody was playing near the high end of their projections. If that balance goes away in the form of guys declining - and Salmon, Kennedy and Anderson are all projected to slide back somewhat - then other players in the line-up will have to improve just so the team can tread water. Glaus may be the guy, and Erstad may step up some, but at this point, the offense really has nowhere to go but back down to Earth.

Still, it’s a good time to be an Angel fan. Southern California is buzzing with Angel joy for the first time in team history. The defending champs are still going to be a good team, to the tune of between 86-90 wins, and be in the running for the Wild Card. Stoneman’s last few drafts have been pretty good, the Angels Latin American pipeline has been restored, and the Angel farm system has been resuscitated after years of being nearly empty of prospects. With Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, and a bushel of promising young arms in Steve Green, Chris Bootcheck, Joe Saunders, Joe Torres and the unpredictably freaky Bobby Jenks getting ready to join the team in the next couple seasons, it’s quite possible that 2002 could be the first of several red October races Anaheim may enjoy in the coming future. Unfortunately, 2003 won’t be one of those seasons.

Prediction: 86-90 wins, good enough to compete for, but not win, the division.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO   Player      G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C    Molina B  120 428  39 113 18  0  8  52  18  38  0  0 .264 .303 .362
1B   Spiezio   146 461  67 128 31  2 13  67  55  56  4  6 .278 .360 .438
2B   Kennedy   148 524  65 156 32  6  8  55  25  75 17  6 .298 .339 .427
3B   Glaus     162 603 109 162 32  1 42 115 110 152 12  5 .269 .386 .534
SS   Eckstein  152 596  98 172 26  4  6  52  51  50 22 10 .289 .351 .376
LF   Anderson  161 662  87 194 50  2 29 118  29  88  7  7 .293 .323 .506
CF   Erstad    155 649  99 192 34  3 13  75  48  83 22  8 .296 .348 .418
RF   Salmon    141 491  75 128 39  1 20  72  83 115  4  4 .261 .375 .466
DH   Fullmer   139 488  74 144 33  4 23  76  36  64  7  2 .295 .356 .520
c    Molina J   85 294  29  81 13  1  4  32  13  66  0  2 .276 .313 .367
c-1b Wooten     87 283  37  85 19  1  9  39  15  50  2  1 .300 .340 .470
if   Gil        93 236  23  65 14  2  6  27  17  50  4  6 .275 .328 .428
2b   Figgins   129 498  83 132 21  9  5  43  44  93 25  8 .265 .331 .373
ss   Amezaga   128 603  75 130 17  5  5  38  34 104 19 13 .216 .265 .285
ut   Owens     131 443  61 127 19  3  5  41  34  48 16 16 .287 .339 .377
of   Ramirez    78 285  32  68  9  2  5  25  14  70 10  6 .239 .280 .337
of   DaVanon    84 258  38  68 17  4 10  35  29  66  5  6 .264 .343 .477

PO Player        W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Appier       13 11 4.48 32 32 193 188  96 22 73 155
SP Washburn     12  9 4.22 29 29 179 182  84 19 52 131
SP Ortiz        12 13 5.01 32 32 201 210 112 30 76 149
SP Sele         10 11 4.73 31 31 194 211 102 23 58 111
SP Lackey       14  9 3.80 32 32 194 192  82 16 50 145
SP Callaway      9  7 4.39 26 20 119 126  58 13 34  78
RP Turnbow       0  0 4.87 16  1  24  22  13  2 16  25
RP Shields       4  4 4.50 31  1  44  44  22  4 19  33
RP Miadich       3  4 4.70 56  0  69  59  36  5 47  73
RP Schoeneweis   8  9 4.94 37 25 164 180  90 18 61  91
RP Weber         5  4 4.11 59  1  81  83  37  5 25  49
RP Donnelly      4  2 3.93 61  0  71  61  31  8 28  76
RP Rodriguez     9  3 2.90 57  0  90  64  29  6 35 119
CL Percival      3  2 3.57 57  0  53  40  21  4 24  65
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.
Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: April 14, 2003 at 01:00 AM | 10 comment(s)
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   1. Shredder Posted: April 13, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610363)
No offense, Doug. I'm sure David didn't forget about you. The fact is over the last two seasons, Spiezio has the best fielding percentage at first base, and last year anchored what was among the best defensive infields in the league, one which included a guy who can barely get the ball all the way to first, and a guy with a rocket arm who never knows where it's going. And he didn't play 81 games on turf.
   2. Darren Posted: April 13, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610368)
When do we start calling these articles "Looking Sideways..."
   3. Robert Dudek Posted: April 13, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610371)
Minky is better. And I'm not sure that turf has anything to do with it.
   4. Srul Itza Posted: April 13, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610372)
"over 1.6 million season tickets"


Damn, that's a big stadium
   5. Shredder Posted: April 13, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610375)
Robert, at the very least, it's debatable. Having watched a hell of a lot more Angels games than Twins games, I'll take Spiezio, but that's not a fully informed viewpoint. I think with what we know about defense, you'd be well within the margin of error if you said either one was better than the other. For my money, though, the difference is the versatility that Spiezio brings. He can hold his own at third base, second base, and in the outfield. Just the other day when Glaus went down, they shifted Spiezio to third. I doubt Mientkiewicz has the versatility to do the same, but in all fairness, they probably don't ask it of him. Spiezio made a bad throw in that first game, but he also made a terrific play on a hard hit grounder by Bret Boone, on which he bagan a double play.

Also, he has a home run that gets shown during Giants games when they aren't even playing the Angels. That's cool just for the torment factor.
   6. tangotiger Posted: April 13, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610377)
According to UZR (which only accounts for BIP fielded, and not throws taken, or positioning, or going for the bunt, etc), among the 30 1B with the most games from 1999-2002, here's how they did:


name UZRper162
Zeile, Todd 17
Martinez, Tino 14
Helton, Todd 12
Clark, Tony 11
Mientkiewicz, Doug 10
Brogna, Rico 8
Bagwell, Jeff 7
Young, Kevin 6
Olerud, John 5
Lee, Travis 4
Sexson, Richie 4
Spiezio, Scott 3
Sweeney, Mike 2
Grace, Mark 2
Lee, Derrek 1
Daubach, Brian 1
Karros, Eric 1
Giambi, Jason 0
Stevens, Lee -1
Thome, Jim -1
Palmeiro, Rafael -2
Conine, Jeff -2
Casey, Sean -2
Delgado, Carlos -3
McGwire, Mark -5
Klesko, Ryan -6
Konerko, Paul -9
Snow, J.T. -10
McGriff, Fred -13
Vaughn, Mo -21
</PRE>
   7. Walt Davis Posted: April 14, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610388)
Do we have the team pitches per plate appearance numbers, compared to the league?

Well, David does give it for the major Angels hitters for the last 4 years. Granted, it's not in comparison to league averages, but they were generally lower in 2002 than in 2001, which means the Angels weren't working the count more. I guess it's possible there was a sufficiently large league-wide decline in #P/PA such that they worked the count as much or more relative to the league.
   8. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: April 14, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610389)
Walt Davis wrote:
I guess it's possible there was a sufficiently large league-wide decline in #P/PA such that they worked the count as much or more relative to the league.

I actually started to do that for the entire league for the last four seasons, but I ran out of time. I suspect you're right to a certain degree, but I couldn't tell you what that point is. Hopefully in a few weeks, when I'm not working so many hours...


Jose Canseco wrote:
DIPS doesn't apply to hitters.

I think the idea that pitchers can really control only walks, strikeouts and homers can be very important to teams like the Angels, who don't homer much (in the bottom half of the league 6 of last 7 years) and who don't walk much. I'm not suggesting that teams should build teams like this, I'm just saying that given the make-up of the team, stressing BIP and avoiding guaranteed outs (Ks) helps this particular group of guys.
   9. Ryan Posted: April 16, 2003 at 09:57 PM (#610404)
Team range factor is a fairly meaningless stat...
   10. Softball-Playing Human Refuses to Be Walked Posted: April 17, 2003 at 09:58 PM (#610424)
"The 2001 Angels were not a poor team in the least. They were pretty good right up until 9/11/01."

They were over .500 before 9/11. Then they lost 19 of their last 21, signaling that the terrorists had already won. The World Series of 2002 liberated Anaheim.
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