Anaheim Angels

Gravity, as the Tick famously noted, is a harsh mistress. After a 99-win season and a World Series championship in 2002, the Anaheim Angels were sky-high. The fan base responded by breaking the 3 million mark in attendance for the first time in franchise history. The entire core of fan favorites was brought back with minimal tinkering and with GM Bill Stoneman counting on repeat performances from his overachieving lineup. Predictably, that didn’t quite happen. The Angels went into 2003 with three times the legal limit of optimism in their blood and were promptly pulled over by the Highway Patrolmen of Reality. Handicapped by injuries and butting up against the Plexiglass Principle, the Angels sputtered to a 77-85 finish.

Yet optimism still reigns in Anaheim. While last winter Stoneman could have qualified as a still-life portrait, the Angels have been anything but static this past off-season. The most important move was the late-season sale of the team by Disney to Arizona billionaire Arturo Moreno. Despite the initial excitement when they took over, Disney ultimately used team ownership only to protect its existing investments in Anaheim, while treating the team as merely a corporate exercise, trying in vain to create synergistic opportunities with the NHL Mighty Ducks and neighboring Disneyland. This contrasted sharply with friendly, soft-spoken Moreno, a former minor-league owner and coach of his son’s little league team. Moreno came in talking not of synergies, but rather about his love for baseball, lowered the price of beer by 75¢, and immediately made a connection with the fans.

This, of course, doesn’t mean Arte Moreno doesn’t care about making some coin. Moreno, who made his money in billboard advertising, understands that in order to sell his product, people first have see it first. Over the past few seasons the Angels have been saddled with one of the worst cable/local broadcast contracts in baseball with less than 100 televised games, getting only 50 games on the local Fox cable affiliate and 46 more on the free local network last season. Though the Fox contract will still be in place until 2008, Moreno has been pushing to getting other local networks to carry as many as 50 more games on the air, with the team offering to pay all production costs for broadcasting the additional games.

Not insignificantly, 10 to 12 of those games will be aired on Spanish television, a move that fits right into another facet of Moreno’s plan. A fourth generation Hispanic-American and baseball’s first minority owner, Moreno is clearly working to break the Dodgers’ monopolistic hold on the large and ever-increasing Spanish-speaking community in Southern California. The off-season signings of Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, and Jose Guillen, four Latin American players, bespeaks a concerted effort to create for the Angels what Fernando-mania did for the Dodgers.

In fact, it seems that almost everything Moreno is doing challenges the Dodgers traditional hold on the Southern California market. He has publicly stated that he considers the Angels to be a large market team — a drastic departure from the public stance taken by both Disney, and before them, Jackie Autry — and he would approach the financial aspects of team ownership with that in mind. He talked about the acquisitions of Guerrero, Colon, et al, as "capital investments", showing that he understands that player contracts aren’t just costs that take away from the bottom line. After all, even the world’s greatest shite campaign isn’t going to make shite worth anything. Guerrero and Colon aren’t just there to appeal to Latinos — these guys are really, really good. Acquiring the most coveted free agent since Alex Rodriguez as well as the most coveted free agent pitcher available doesn’t just appeal to Latino fans, they appeal to every fan. At the same time, he’s also exhibited a willingness to let a fan favorite (Scott Spiezio) walk away to make room for better players, a trait that will come in handy when the promising prospects in the Angels’ high minors are ready for their close-up.

If I sound excited, it’s because I am. Moreno’s first year as team owner has brought about the most dynamic Angel management since the heyday of Gene Autry in the late 70s and early 80s. The fans have responded accordingly; as of this writing, the Angels have already set a new team record for season-ticket subscriptions, and may actually outdraw the Dodgers for the first time ever.

The only thing left on the script is to actually win some games. Moreno has inherited a team that was ravaged by injuries to key contributors and played three games worse than their Pythagorean 80-82 record. Just as they smacked against the Plexiglass above their heads last season, a return to health and the infusion of some new talent will push the Oakland A’s for a shot at the divisional title and their second playoff run in three years.

Let’s get to this first: a lot of noise has been made about Darin Erstad to first base, since pretty much all of Erstad’s value is tied into him being the finest defensive centerfielder in all the land, saving over 30 runs a season. That stellar defense offset the fact that, over the last five years, he had fewer hits than Milli Vanilli. Over the last five years, Erstad’s OPS+ runs 74, 137, 78, 88, and 75. Now that Erstad’s main contribution to the team is gone, one can only wonder at what his value really is. In a best-case scenario, you’ve pretty much got a first baseman may turn into Travis Lee at over four times the cost of the real Travis Lee — and that’s if you assume Erstad’s is going to play above-average defense at first.

I’m not too bent out of shape, though. The Angels still owe Erstad $24M over the next three years, and that contract became an albatross the first year it kicked in. It’s unlikely that any team is going to take that contract off the Angels’ hands, so Erstad was going to be locked into the Angel lineup regardless of what happened. Ideally, a healthy Erstad in centerfield and Garrett Anderson moving to first would have maximized the defense, but that was never going to happen. Initially, I was optimistic that Erstad may likely hit better at first base, where he’d be protected from the myriad nagging injuries he’s suffered throwing himself around in center, but after an L.A. Times interview in which Erstad essentially vowed to hurt himself at first base, I’ve just given in, and am already counting the days until he hurts himself again. At this point, Erstad’s status as team leader and fan favorite makes him one of those necessary evils that you just have to accept being stuck with.

As part of the New Owner Largesse Program, Adam Kennedy got his extension, a 3-year, $9M contract. I’ve never been much of a Kennedy fan, but any player who has the range of skills that Kennedy possesses is worth what he’s getting. Last year, I wrote no other second baseman in the league goes to his right as well as Kennedy, and that’s still true. He can also steal you a base, and has turned into a decent offensive second baseman, especially if he maintains the improved walk ratio (from 3.73 walks/100 ABs in 2002 to 10/100 in 2003). He still has trouble with lefties, but manager Mike Scioscia let Kennedy play full-time in August and September, and he responded by hitting .282/.371/.446. There’ll be no platoon for Kennedy to start the season. His ZiPS seems right on, and he should hang around that neighborhood for the duration of his contract.

Early on, it seemed as if Nomar Garciaparra would be the Angels 2004 shortstop, but plucky li’l David Eckstein is back. Eckstein was injured in spring training, got off to a slow start in 2003 with a .653 OPS through May, then really got flushed with a spate of pain: a bruised hand in June, a right arm injury in July, pulled his hamstring in early August, and hurt his shoulder and back in late August, an injury that required him to go on the DL. When he’s been healthy, he’s been a nice sparkplug at the top of the lineup, and has nicely compensated for his average range and weak throwing arm with excellent positioning and anticipation. He has little power, and last season showed how thin a margin Eckstein has to play with. If he’s not healthy and at the top of his game, the Angels may end up having to play Alfredo Amezaga, another athletic good field/no hit shortstop, and nobody wants that.

Troy Glaus is also coming off a season spoiled by injury, a real shame since he was rolling at a .289/.391/.566 before running into his usual June problems. This time, however, it wasn’t just the calendar; Glaus hurt his back, and then developed a serious right rotator cuff injury when he fell heavily on his shoulder, and that shelved him for the rest of the season. Without him, the Angels had to use Scott Spiezio at third for a large portion of the season, a huge drop-off. Opting for therapy rather than surgery, the Angels desperately need Glaus to be healthy and productive. If his shoulder remains a problem, the Angels aren’t going to make the playoffs, and the old Jim Edmonds-style "should have had surgery"/"he’s so selfish" rumors may come back. Since Glaus is in the last year of his current contract, and with Dallas McPherson nearly ready, this season will likely decide how expendable Glaus ultimately is. He’s still just 27, and could still obliterate his ZiPS projection. Of course, I said that last season.

Bengie Molina had his season shut down by injury when, against the Twins on September 3^rd, he reached out with his glove hand to tag a hard-running Dustan Mohr. Snap. Aaaaugh. The two broken bones above his left wrist ended Molina’s best individual season, a .281/.304/.443 effort credited to a strong off-season workout regimen (does BALCO have a Puerto Rico branch?), and he won his second consecutive Gold Glove. The big offensive improvement lies in the number of ground ball he hits; he’s runs like a man being chased by horny supermodels, and he couldn’t beat out a grounder to an empty infield. In 2000 and 2003, Molina’s groundball/flyball ratios were under 1.00, and his offensive production was markedly better than his 2001 and 2002 seasons, when his rations were 1.13 and 1.22. Also, all of that improvement came against lefties; Obviously, Molina’s (lack of) plate discipline is going to get in the way of his ability to control the number of easy-out grounders he hits. Can he come up with a 100 OPS+ in 2004? ZiPS says no, but you could flip a coin. Molina willll continue to be a nice placeholder for Jeff Mathis. Younger brother Jose Molina, a later model from the Molina Catcher Cloning Factory, will back him up. The Angels could do better here, maybe offering a platoon option to spell Bengie against tough righties, but nepotism tastes too good.

No, sorry, the Shane Halter signing didn’t energize the Caucasian fan base. It was a good move for the Angels dump Eric Owens and Benji Gil, but there must be some unwritten rule that every team must keep at least one completely useless multi-positional player on its roster. Hopefully, Halter won’t take time away from Chone Figgins, an actual useful player to have around. Figgins is as quick as a hiccup, switch-hits, can draw a walk and can also play several positions. The Eckstein-Figgins double-play combination the Angels sometimes put out there might be the smallest in major league history, as if Trammell and Whitaker exploded, and they were the biggest pieces left. Robb Quinlan is a nice hitter who doesn’t have power to start at first or left field, but he’s a nice back up first baseman/leftfielder. At this point, he’s actually a slightly better solution at first than Erstad, but that’s not going to happen.

The crown jewel of this winter’s booty, Vladimir Guerrero was also a bargain at 5 years at $15M per. The reason, of course, was a herniated disk that forced Guerrero to miss the middle third of the season. There’s a fair chance that this injury may lead to chronic back problems for Guerrero, which was why the Mets wouldn't risk guaranteeing more than three years and $30M. On the other hand, Guerrero’s injury did not require surgery, and he did return to play in 62 of the last 64 games of the season for the Expos, hitting a vigorous .353/.436/.661 in 218 at-bats. That performance, plus a winter of rest and rehab, should calm the nerves of Angel fans. This guy is a superstar of the first order, and the Angels are lucky to have him locked up while in his prime years. ZiPS is predicting a .982 OPS with 29 homers; I think the homer number is low.

Anyone skipping ahead to see Jose Guillen’s ZiPS prediction is going to be shocked and awed at the .305/.354/.507 performance being prophesized. I certainly was, and I think ZiPS is giving Guillen’s four months in Cincinnati (.337/.385/.629) way too much credence, especially since his career averages previous to that were .259/.294/.391. Still, it seems that, at age 27, Guillen’s reached a new plateau in terms of his previous performance, doubling his previous homer frequency, and even if the Angels get only .265/.311/.459 that the A’s got from him last August, it’d still be far better than what Guillen’s normally done before. That’d be more in line with my expectations. The problem, though, is if that comes to pass, the Angels will be grievously overpaying for a player who, in the current market, is worth half that much. I generally not too concerned with player salaries, but at some point, the accumulated financial burdens of an underperforming Guillen and Erstad will hurt the Angels’ abilities to retain players that actually worth their contracts. Defensively, Guillen’s one of the better defensive right fielders in baseball. He’ll be in left field this season, and so far this spring, doesn’t seem to have much trouble with the adjustment.

Garret Anderson gets to move back over to centerfield this season, having played spent the majority of 2000 and 2001 there. To continue last season’s chart:

Over the last two seasons, Anderson’s averaged over 50 doubles, adding more than a dozen more than his previous career average. It may just be a blip, and he may drop back down to career norms for doubles this season, but no one can ignore the general trend showing up in his performance. Early on, under the tutelage of Rod Carew, Anderson was very much a slap hitter who was content to hit singles to left field, as his Carew-esque slugging percentage would suggest. Anecdotally, it’s worth mentioning that Anderson has become more and more willing to turn on pitches that are middle/in, rather than inside-out those pitches to left. Hit charts at MLB.com back those observations, showing over time that, as his hit totals have nudge upwards, there is a clear increase in the number of hits to the right side.

Anderson’s interesting in that his maturation into a genuinely productive hitter doesn’t include an improvement in his plate discipline. Rather, it doesn’t include an improvement in his unintentional walk totals at all. However, it’s apparent that he’s adept enough at pitch recognition that he’s been able to make important changes to his hitting approach. Regardless of whether Anderson’s unable to lay off pitches off the plate, or he simply chooses not to, his low OBP will forever keep him from being the type of monster Guerrero is. With Anderson’s contract up this year, the Angels will have a decision to make. None of the outfielders in the system are ready to step in, and Anderson’s going to be able to command some serious cash. For this season, Anderson will be the only lefty in the heart of the order, so look for him to hit a handful more homers than ZiPS projects.

Senior statesman and all-around Good Guy[tm] Tim Salmon will yield right field, his everyday position since 1993, to newcomer Guerrero. The Angels are looking to extend the twilight of the 35-year-old Salmon’s career by DHing him and hoping his bat will stay alive long enough to justify the $19.25M that they’ll be paying him over the next two seasons. Though his power numbers are on a steady decline, his OBP is still high enough for him to be a contributor to a playoff run this season. I’m not sure you can say the same about him next season.

Jeff DaVanon has the fourth outfielder slot wrapped up. ZiPS nailed him last season, but that was mostly because of a few good games in Puerto Rico, when DaVanon turned into Mickey Mantle. He’s not going to do that too often, but like Chone Figgins, he’s a switcher with some speed and defense, a good player off the bench so long as he doesn’t get too much playing time.

Bartolo Colon will immediately step in as the #1 starter in a rotation that was extremely disappointing last season. Colon himself was somewhat disappointing last season, rebounding from a career best 2002 to numbers approaching his career norms, a 3.86 ERA for the White Sox in 2003. Colon’s season-to-season changes have been interest — his pitchers per PA dropped again to a career-best 3.59, while his strikeout rate, which had plummeted from 10.15 per 9 innings in 2000 to just 5.75 in 2002, nudged upward to 6.43. He also threw a career-high 242 innings, but allowed a career-high 30 homers.

The 2003 number looks like a blip, and if Colon can turn that around again, he’ll be able to take advantage of the best defensive middle infield he’s ever had in Eckstein and Kennedy.

At 4 years, $48M, Colon’s getting somewhat more than he’s worth, given that outside of his 2002 campaign, his 122.6 ERA+ falls into the good-not-great category. However, a pitcher who can turn in 230 innings of 123 OPS+ pitching every season is obviously a tremendous asset to the franchise. The one serious concern as he moves into his 30’s that his weight, now in the 250+ lb. neighborhood, is not all muscle. Colon’s never shown interest in slipping down, and at some point his extra bulk will begin to affect his performance.

Colon takes over the staff ace position from Jarrod Washburn. Washburn, like many of the other core Angel players, had to play through injuries – in his case, a sore left shoulder injured in spring training. He did the Man thing and pitched through it anyways, and had his worst season since 1999. An extreme flyball pitcher, Washburn saw many of those flyballs go over the fence, yielding a league-high 34 homers. Prior to 2003, his ERA+ went 133, 126 and 138. He’s still 29 years old, there’s no reason to think he can’t keep doing that for at least a few more years, though Erstad’s move to first will adversely affect him more than any other pitcher on the team.

All the gains he made in 2002 went into the can. Ramon Ortiz had a horrible season despite his 16 wins. His K rate dropped from 6.7 per 9 innings to just 4.7, and there was a noticeable loss of movement on both his fastball and slider. He spent all season up in the strike zone, where he got pounded: opponents slugged .461 against Ortiz, which ranked him 80 out of 92 pitchers, and unlike previous seasons, he wasn’t able to induce the groundball outs. If they’re lucky, he’ll pitch well enough to get himself traded. If the Angels can’t trade him, they’ll likely just let him go after the season since they have a grip of starting pitchers available to take his place, with one of them (Kelvim Escobar) a candidate to mushroom into a problem just as big as Ortiz.

That, of course, is the possible downside to Escobar. The possible upside is that Escobar take his blazing fastball to Anaheim, Angel pitching coach Bud Black finally screws his head on right, and he’ll justify his new contract. Escobar, over his career:

Not inspiring, and the Angels are hoping Escobar will finally break out in his eighth big league season. However, what is inspiring is Escobar’s GB/FB ratio going from 1.03 to 1.54 last year, due to a new reliance on a cut fastball to complements his high heat. Grounders on the Toronto turf scooted for base hits, and Escobar gave up 119 in 95.2 innings and a 5.65 ERA. But on grass, Escobar allowed just 70 hits in 84.2 innings, resulting in a sparkling 2.84 ERA. In fact, Escobar’s career ERA on grass is a full point lower than on turf, 3.40 to 4.41. Out of Skydome and pitching in front of a good middle infield combination, this is Escobar’s best opportunity thus far to succeed. Escobar’s contract runs 3 years and $18.75M, so if he mirrors his career numbers, it could get bad. ZiPS, however, is optimistic, and it’s safe to say that he’ll hit the 200 inning mark this season.

Yeah, it wasn’t a great year, but John Lackey did a lot of good things, and he did them all after April. From May forward, Lackey posted a 4.07 ERA in 172.2 innings, with a sharp 130K/47BB ratio. 31 homers are way too many, especially for a guy who’s supposed to be a groundball pitcher. Still, Lackey’s just 25 years old, and he’s got a bright future ahead of him. If I could, I’d buy stock in him.

The foolish contract given to Aaron Sele three years ago ends after this season, and Sele’s biggest contribution will come when he walks out the door. Kevin Appier helped the Angels to the Series in 2002, so at least the Angels could point to that to justify paying for his contract this season even though he’s playing in Kansas City. Sele, however, was flammable when he got here, and has been smoked so often he ought to be checked for nicotine. Scioscia is giving him the opportunity to win a rotation spot this spring, but the Angels don’t need Sele for them to win this season. If circumstances force them to use him regularly, they’ll be in trouble.

After trading the explosive Scott Schoeneweis last July, the Angels didn’t carry a lefty in their bullpen. They really didn’t have to, because the guys they did have were so damn good, beginning with Brendan Donnelly, the guy you won’t find on any Anaheim Angel memorabilia. Donnelly was the best reliever on arguably the best bullpen in the league. Through the end of July, Donnelly was sporting a 0.65 ERA, allowing just 4 earned runs and 49 baserunners in 55 2/3 innings. Bone chips became a problem later in the year, but they’re gone now, and just so long as he doesn’t get himself killed in spring training, he should be good for another 70+ innings excellent relief.

Troy Percival is in the last year of his contract, and will be one of several tests for how willing Moreno and Stoneman are to let go of the organization’s long-time standard bearers. Donnelly was better last season, and Frankie Rodriguez will be better starting this season. Percival could probably pitch at this level for another two years, but if he’s asking to come back for another $8M per season – or perhaps even half that – the Angels need to cut him loose.

Like Lackey, Rodriguez came into the season facing high expectations. And like Lackey, he struggled at the onset, posting a 4.85 ERA. Opponents learned quickly that Rodriguez wasn’t able to throw his vaunted slider over the plate, so they didn’t bother swinging at it, drawing 13 walks in Rodriguez’s first 26 innings. Once he started throwing strikes, though, he was bulletproof – over his last 60 innings, Rodriguez struck out 70 batters while allowing just 29 hits. In the next year or three, Rodriguez is going to start regularly churning out Eric Gagne seasons. Between Rodriguez, Donnelly and Percival, the Angels have the bullets to win a lot of games in the late-innings.

They do just fine in the middle innings, too. Over the last three seasons, Ben Weber has done a fantastic job coming out of the pen: 226 innings, 2.86 ERA. Need a double-play to end a rally? Need to get from Aaron Sele to the 6^th inning? Wanna see a freaky delivery? Weber’s your man, and between him and Scot Shields, the Angels don’t have to concede blowouts. Shields ended up in acquitting himself quite well in the rotation after Kevin Appier was let go, going 4-6 with a 3.89 ERA. Most impressive were his peripherals: Shields walked just 13 while striking out 55 in his 13 starts. With the logjam in the rotation, Shields will be back in his role as over-qualified mop-up guy.

Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, Jeff Mathis, and Bobby Jenks were all the rage on the winter prospect lists, and all within two years of playing on the varsity squad. Kotchman, especially, has gotten a lot of love from Mike Scioscia, who said he thought Kotchman was ready to face big league pitching right now. Kotchman has problems staying healthy through a 15-minute episode of "Space Ghost: Coast to Coast", but if he stays healthy long enough to reach the majors, he’ll be a good one. McPherson’s less of a sure thing, but he’s big, tough, and has 35-homer power. The presence of Erstad and Glaus in Anaheim means that nobody’s getting rushed, but things could get problematic in 2005, when both the young guys will likely be ready. McPherson doesn’t have the glove Glaus does and may end up a corner outfielder, but injuries may push Glaus to first base. Of course, Erstad’s already there and his contract runs until 2006, and besides, isn’t Kotchman the first baseman of the future?

The Angels also aren’t going to rush Mathis, who may be the second-best young catcher in baseball in two years. He’ll be just 21 going into his first full season at AA after a very impressive 2003 where he hit a combined .315/.377/.493 in 122 games split between A-league and AA Arkansas. Taking positional value into account, Mathis may be the best prospect in the system.

Bobby Jenks has long had the "Nuke LaLoosh" label – million-dollar arm, ten-cent head. Apparently, he’s now smart enough to have read the writing on the wall, which tells the story of a thousand good arms gone bad. His breakthrough at the AA was dramatic, 103 Ks and 51 walks and just 56 hits in 83 innings, leading to a 2.17 ERA that was more than half his previous ERAs. If he can continue to harness both his pitch locations and his, uh, behavioral issues, he’ll have first dibs on the open rotation spot in 2005, when Ortiz and Sele will be out of town.

There are also prospects in the system worth mentioning. Ervin Santana is the biggest name, one of the 10 best pitching prospects in the minors, who throws in the high 90s. Brandon Wood, the Angels’ 2003 #1 pick, more than held his own in the Pioneer League as a 19-year-old shortstop. Abel Moreno, Steven Shell and Rick Fischer are all live arms who show promise, and the double-play combo of Alberto Callaspo and Eric Aybar have proven themselves to be legitimate prospects.

It must be acknowledged that, after the disastrous Mo Vaughn contract, Disney reevaluated and reinvigorated the Angel minor league system. More money and manpower were devoted to the scouting and drafting of amateurs, and there was an emphasis on tracking Latin American players – an area where the Angels had previously had no organization at all. When Bill Stoneman took over as the GM in 1999, the Angel farm system was ranked dead last, the worst in baseball. Under the eye of former Scouting Director Donny Rowland, the Angel minor leagues are about to yield a number of players who could make up the core of a 2008 division winner. (The Angels abruptly fired Rowland just last winter. It will be interesting to see how the organization continues to handle its minor league system.)

Projected Lineup     Projected Rotation        Projected Bullpen
Eckstein, SS         Colon, RHP                Percival, RHP (closer)
Erstad, 1B           Washburn, LHP             Donnelly, RHP
Guerrero, RF         Ortiz, RHP                Rodriguez, RHP
Anderson, CF         Lackey, RHP               Weber, RHP
Glaus, 3B            Escobar, RHP              Shields, RHP
Salmon, DH
Guillen, LF
Molina, C
Kennedy, 2B

If everything breaks right for them, the Angels could win 100 games. They could also win 83, and be wondering what went wrong. Just as in the past two seasons, their front-line players are a strong group, but there’s little depth. Good general health, as in 2002, would help make the Angels a strong divisional contender. But in 2003, a blitz of injuries meant that role players like Eric Owens, Shawn Wooten, and Benji Gil were getting too much playing time.

Assuming general good health and a return to career norms, the Angels look loaded. The bullpen crew is money in the bank. Vlad Guerrero’s big bat will replace the Brad Fullmer/Wooten platoon, while Jose Guillen should be counted on to at least match Spiezio’s 2003 output. If Eckstein and Glaus bounce back with their average seasons, the offense will be greatly improved. Rotation-wise, Colon and Washburn will bring another 450 innings of solid, if not outstanding, starting pitching, and Lackey and Escobar should be expected to improve on last season.

Mike Scioscia and Bud Black need to coax a good season out of one of Ortiz or Sele, and if they can do that, this team will be able to run with anybody. 95 wins is a good possibility, and even 100 wins isn’t out of the question. However, the division is still a horse race. Oakland may have lost Miguel Tejada, but has upgraded their outfield substantially, and Bobby Crosby could be very, very good. They also added Mark Redman, giving the A’s the deepest rotation this side of Chicago. (People say not to count out Seattle? Well, I’m counting them out. Bye.) Oakland and Anaheim are two of the four best teams in the American League, but only three of them get to make the playoffs since none of them can win the Central. The East has gotten a lot tougher since last season, while the Mariners have taken a small step back and the Rangers have thrown themselves to the wolves. My prediction: 96-66, and the playoffs.

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Guerrero           rf  .332  .421  .561  144  545   91  181  32   3  29  104   77   68  26  15 
Glaus              3b  .261  .381  .509  137  505   84  132  27   1  32   96   93  119   9   3 
DaVanon#           cf  .285  .374  .470   96  253   43   72  15   1  10   39   33   49  10   3 
Guillen            rf  .305  .354  .507  126  440   65  134  24   1  21   77   23   82   2   4 
Anderson*          lf  .302  .338  .521  155  630   78  190  51   3  27  108   29   83   7   4 
Salmon             rf  .254  .360  .453  136  477   67  121  37   2  18   71   74   97   4   2 
Quinlan            1b  .301  .348  .444  141  495   73  149  23   6  12   62   31   82   8   5 
Figgins#           2b  .296  .358  .410  135  503   90  149  21  12   4   43   43   76  22  12 
Riggs              2b  .263  .332  .442  113  391   57  103  32   1  12   56   36   68   6   3 
Kennedy*           2b  .288  .342  .411  140  465   63  134  24   3   9   55   33   72  17   8 
Pelaez             1b  .275  .318  .404   94  364   36  100  21   1   8   45   19   42   0   0 
Wesson             cf  .271  .318  .403  124  457   54  124  25   4   9   52   26   96   8   4 
Eckstein           ss  .281  .340  .363  138  537   79  151  23   3   5   52   43   48  19   8 
Erstad*            cf  .271  .325  .373  129  531   75  144  26   2   8   57   37   72  17   5 
Gordon*            lf  .258  .309  .393  124  461   63  119  21   4  11   53   29  100   1   4 
Nieves             c   .276  .318  .355   99  344   37   95  14   2   3   33   18   49   1   1 
Johnson*           rf  .235  .317  .365  116  400   55   94  20   4   8   41   44  108   3   3 
Molina             c   .270  .296  .392  117  408   35  110  20   0  10   51   15   35   0   1 
Specht#            ss  .238  .302  .366  126  462   61  110  17   3  12   52   37  128  11   5 
Paul               c   .243  .319  .327   40  107   13   26   6   0   1   10   11   20   3   1 
Halter             3b  .231  .295  .378  120  389   37   90  21   3  10   44   32   85   1   4 
Amezaga#           ss  .262  .313  .352  119  469   68  123  22   4   4   42   30   78  12  11 
Molina             c   .265  .298  .338   83  272   25   72  12   1   2   25   10   59   0   2 
Gregorio           c   .217  .269  .332   48  184   23   40   9   0   4   19   11   46   0   0 


Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Rodriguez            3.15   6   4  54   0    80.0   58   28   7   31  103 
Donnelly             3.16   3   1  65   0    74.0   57   26   5   27   82 
Percival             3.71   3   2  51   0    51.0   40   21   5   22   60 
Escobar              3.72  10   7  52  17   150.0  128   62  11   61  141 
Jones                3.74   3   2  36   0    53.0   47   22   5   17   47 
Shields              3.78   5   4  47   7   112.0  104   47  11   31   90 
Gregg                3.90   9   8  29  22   134.0  128   58  13   40   99 
Colon                3.99  14  13  34  34   230.0  219  102  22   72  169 
Weber                4.01   3   3  60   0    74.0   73   33   5   24   43 
Lackey               4.07  12  12  32  32   197.0  189   89  22   58  149 
Fischer              4.18   7   6  26  26   157.0  154   73  21   42  120 
Washburn*            4.22  11  13  31  31   192.0  192   90  24   51  131 
Turnbow              4.23   2   3  43   0    66.0   57   31   6   34   63 
Bergman*             4.58   5   7  44  13   116.0  123   59  14   40   70 
Sele                 4.75   7  10  28  28   163.0  176   86  21   51   82 
Bootcheck            4.75   4   7  24  23   142.0  158   75  18   39   58 
Jenks                4.81   5   8  19  18   101.0   82   54   6   80  106 
Hensley              4.85   5   7  29  24   154.0  165   83  23   51   99 
Green                4.93   5   6  18  18    95.0   94   52   6   56   52 
Ortiz                4.95  11  16  31  31   191.0  198  105  30   67  127 
Zamora*              5.11   4   5  52   2    81.0   86   46   8   41   45 
Dunn                 5.60   4   9  42   7    90.0   87   56  14   58   82 
Cyr                  5.65   3   6  22  18    94.0   97   59  13   57   67